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Earth United States Science

El Nino's Absence Is Causing An Active Hurricane Season (mercurynews.com) 148

Dan Drollette writes: Contrary to some items making the rounds of the Twitterverse, El Nino's are "Kryptonite for hurricanes." The Mercury News reports: "Irma has ripped a path of misery through the Caribbean and is aiming at Florida, but the first seed for its monster size and force was planted on the other side of the world more than six months ago. It happened innocently enough, when a widely anticipated El Nino failed to materialize over the Pacific Ocean. In time, that cleared a path for a hurricane to form in the Atlantic that grew to the size of the state of New York with winds topping 185 miles per hour. El Nino occurs when the Pacific heats up and flusters the atmosphere, setting off a chain reaction that causes wind shear across the Atlantic. Shear is wind blowing in different directions or speeds at various altitudes, and it can be Kryptonite for hurricanes. As powerful as they are, tropical cyclones have delicate structures. Shear can tear them apart. A budding storm can't get started and an established storm can't get strong."
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El Nino's Absence Is Causing An Active Hurricane Season

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  • by ls671 ( 1122017 ) on Saturday September 09, 2017 @03:14AM (#55163341) Homepage

    So what is the relation between El Nino and climate changes already?

    http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2... [columbia.edu]

    https://www.skepticalscience.c... [skepticalscience.com]

    https://e360.yale.edu/features... [yale.edu]

    • There is no real relation.

      El Ninos and La Ninas and the "neutral phase" where none of them is "active" exist since man kind exists, probably longer.

      However with climate change, those phenomena change, too. And change their influence.

  • by alzoron ( 210577 ) on Saturday September 09, 2017 @03:26AM (#55163363) Journal

    It happened innocently enough, when a widely anticipated El Nino failed to materialize over the Pacific Ocean.

    El Nino and La Nina cycles are typically an average of 5 years(2-7ish years). The last El Nino was in 2015-2016. We are currently in a La Nina. I'm not sure what El Nino they were expecting but it isn't due for at least a little while longer.

    • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Saturday September 09, 2017 @05:26AM (#55163569)

      The cycles aren't regular, though. It's perfectly possible for an El Nino to come back at any time. We are currently in a neutral zone.

    • by Anonymous Coward

      It happened innocently enough, when a widely anticipated El Nino failed to materialize over the Pacific Ocean.

      El Nino and La Nina cycles are typically an average of 5 years(2-7ish years). The last El Nino was in 2015-2016. We are currently in a La Nina. I'm not sure what El Nino they were expecting but it isn't due for at least a little while longer.

      Mid/late spring the equatorial surface temperatures in the Pacific were above average and most of the models were predicting we'd go back into El Nino later this year. It looks like that has changed back to a neutral prediction according to NOAA.

    • You can have two or more El Ninos in a row, same for La Ninas.

      There is no real "cycle", it is more like a see saw. It can hang at the balancing point for quite a while and then go back to the point it came from.

      So: there is no "due date" either. Both phenomena start from the "neutral" phase. And can establish themselves into a strong position over a month or so.

  • by thsths ( 31372 ) on Saturday September 09, 2017 @05:57AM (#55163629)

    This used to be a place for eccentric and intelligent people to talk about technology and science. But this sounds more like a pub discussion of ignorant backwater folks now.

    • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 09, 2017 @06:57AM (#55163771)

      The alt-right infested Slashdot not long ago. You can imagine what that did to the average intelligence level here.

      • Slashdot started going downhill in the early 2000s, about the time its popularity started to really grow. That's when I noticed posts which made sound mathematical or statistical points were more frequently being downvoted simply because they supported politically unpopular positions (usually downvoted by people on the left, though that may have just been a consequence of most people on the Internet back then being left-leaning). The shift to the right in recent years hasn't helped (except at driving slas
        • "(usually downvoted by people on the left,)
          You don't know who down voted what ... and you most certainly don't know if the down voter is left, right or what ever ...

      • What the fuck are you even talking about? I don't see any Trump supporters. Hell we were getting several stories daily about how terrible Trump is right after the election. Please post some sources before spewing garbage.

    • Or just maybe after decades of being exposed to bullshit at all corners they are kind of prickly? Whatever optimism the internet generated died a long time ago....
    • Honestly, is there a difference?
      Watch some scientists talking in a pub about anything which is not their main topic ... they are just as retarded as anyone else.

    • It's so bad that even the trolls moved on.

  • Seems to be a consensus that a delayed El Nino does this: https://www.accuweather.com/en... [accuweather.com]
  • by marciot ( 598356 ) on Saturday September 09, 2017 @10:22AM (#55164395)

    It's fairly obvious that el niño has been deported to Mexico due to the takedown of the DACA.

  • Don't anthropomorphize the atmosphere. It hates when you do that.

  • by antdude ( 79039 )

    I thought we did get El Niño last year, but it didn't come south enough like in Southern California.

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