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Earth Science

A Third Of the Planet's Population Is Exposed To Deadly Heatwaves (motherjones.com) 273

An anonymous reader shares a report: Nearly a third of the world's population is now exposed to climatic conditions that produce deadly heatwaves, as the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere makes it "almost inevitable" that vast areas of the planet will face rising fatalities from high temperatures, new research has found. Climate change has escalated the heatwave risk across the globe, the study states, with nearly half of the world's population set to suffer periods of deadly heat by the end of the century even if greenhouse gases are radically cut. "For heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible," said Camilo Mora, an academic at the University of Hawaii and lead author of the study. High temperatures are currently baking large swaths of the south-western US, with the National Weather Service (NWS) issuing an excessive heat warning for Phoenix, Arizona, which is set to reach 119F (48.3C) on Monday. The heat warning extends across much of Arizona and up through the heart of California, with Palm Springs forecast a toasty 116F (46.6C) on Monday and Sacramento set to reach 107F (41.6C).
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A Third Of the Planet's Population Is Exposed To Deadly Heatwaves

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  • Real, but (Score:5, Insightful)

    by XXongo ( 3986865 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @09:43AM (#54653965) Homepage
    Human-induced climate change is real... but this article is alarmism.

    A hint: please don't use Mother Jones as a source for science information.

    • Re:Real, but (Score:4, Informative)

      by msmash ( 4491995 ) Works for Slashdot on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @09:48AM (#54653995)
      I agree. The same story is also published in The Guardian. I think that gives it more credibility.
      • Re:Real, but (Score:5, Interesting)

        by qbast ( 1265706 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:09AM (#54654145)
        Guardian is pretty good source for news, however their opinion pieces are very often batshit insane.
      • I agree. The same story is also published in The Guardian. I think that gives it more credibility.

        I'm not believing it until it's on Infowars and the fillings in my teeth.

        • I'll only believe it when I hear it! On a different note, the CIA cafeteria lunch menu will be meatloaf on Tuesday.

      • Regardless cold weather apparently is much more harmful to humans than hot weather so on balance... I'm not sure it is worthy of concern.
        The true enemy of mankind [sciencedaily.com]
        • When it's cold out, I can wear warmer clothes and it's fairly simple to heat my immediate environment by burning things. When it's hot out, there's a hard limit to the clothes I can remove, and air conditioning is complicated and not necessarily all that effective at high temperatures. Moreover, consider room temperature at 70F. The article is discussing temperatures in the neighborhood of 120F, which is 50F above room temperature. 50F below room temperature is 20F, which is very comfortable with prope

      • Hahahahahahahahahahaha!

        Please mod parent up to 5 for "Funny". The Grauniad isn't credible about anything - but especially topics that involve numbers, logic, or science.

    • Re:Real, but (Score:5, Informative)

      by Kohath ( 38547 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @09:49AM (#54653999)

      Even Mother Jones gets it right sometimes [motherjones.com].

    • Human-induced climate change is real... but this article is alarmism.

      Climate change is real, but how much of a role humans play in it is something we will not fully understand for a long time.

      That said, this is definitely alarmism. There is a reason why even just a few hundred years ago, even a few decades ago, places like what are today Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, etc. had very few people living there: those places suck without modern air conditioning.

      Sure there were wealthy people who wintered in Florida (Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were even next door neighbors during

      • but how much of a role humans play in it is something we will not fully understand for a long time.
        Any links for that?
        I thought climate change was driven by the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (and by that increased water vapour and methan concentrations)
        If you know non human reasons I guess many people would like to know about that!

      • Re:Real, but (Score:5, Insightful)

        by XXongo ( 3986865 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:23AM (#54654257) Homepage

        Human-induced climate change is real... but this article is alarmism.

        Climate change is real, but how much of a role humans play in it is something we will not fully understand for a long time.

        Sorry, but no. Although there is a well-paid effort to make people believe otherwise, in fact, scientists are not actually stupid .

        We've understood the basics of the greenhouse effect for over a century; we've had good measurements of infrared absorption spectra for sixty years; we've had good overall models of how it affects temperature for fifty years now; and we've been making detailed measurements of atmospheric profiles and the incident solar forcing factor for thirty years. The overall picture of how human-emitted greenhouse gasses play in climate is understood.

        There is still a lot of science being done, but this is is filling in the fine details. The overall picture is not controversial (at least, not by scientists).

        That said, this is definitely alarmism.

        We agree, however, on that point.

        • by OYAHHH ( 322809 )

          I personally like higher temperatures, bring me on some global warming, we are gonna need it for the next glacial phase of our current Ice Age.

        • in fact, scientists are not actually stupid .

          As a group, yes, generally. Individually? Well I'm a scientist and I'm still here, so...

        • Not true. I am a scientist, and I'm a blithering moron, sometimes. If you don't believe me, ask my girlfriend. She will tell you all about it.

        • we've had good overall models of how it affects temperature for fifty years now;

          This isn't really true, unless you mean very rough estimates. Consider that without an atmosphere, the earth would be a certain temperature (as the moon is now). We don't know what that temperature would be for Earth. We have a rough idea, within 10 degrees. Likewise, we don't know how much warming the present atmosphere is providing. We have good rough estimates, but again, within 10 degrees.

          You will never read precise numbers for the warming given to us from our blanket that is the atmosphere, because t

          • Huh? Nothing you said here is accurate. Read any textbook. We know the radiative equilibrium surface temperature of the Earth (the temperature it would be if it had no atmosphere) very well-- you can calculate that directly from the Stefan-Boltzmann equation; it comes out to 256 Kelvin, which is -17C. See, for example
            http://lasp.colorado.edu/~bage... [colorado.edu]
            http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/radiation/

            You will never read precise numbers for the warming given to us from our blanket that is the atmosphere,

            ...unless you check an astronomy text, which will go through the planetary equilibrium t

      • by mpercy ( 1085347 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @11:39AM (#54654719)

        Example, California drought claimed by alarmists to represent the doom of AGW coming to Cali. But research is indicating that California has been far wetter over the last century than it is normally and that the current drought is actually par for the long-term normal.

        California’s current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state’s recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West’s long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.

        Through studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence, researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years — compared to the mere three-year duration of the current dry spell. The two most severe megadroughts make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame: a 240-year-long drought that started in 850 and, 50 years after the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years.

        “We continue to run California as if the longest drought we are ever going to encounter is about seven years,” said Scott Stine, a professor of geography and environmental studies at Cal State East Bay. “We’re living in a dream world.”

        California in 2013 received less rain than in any year since it became a state in 1850. And at least one Bay Area scientist says that based on tree ring data, the current rainfall season is on pace to be the driest since 1580 — more than 150 years before George Washington was born. The question is: How much longer will it last?

        Stine, who has spent decades studying tree stumps in Mono Lake, Tenaya Lake, the Walker River and other parts of the Sierra Nevada, said that the past century has been among the wettest of the last 7,000 years.

        Looking back, the long-term record also shows some staggeringly wet periods. The decades between the two medieval megadroughts, for example, delivered years of above-normal rainfall — the kind that would cause devastating floods today.

        The longest droughts of the 20th century, what Californians think of as severe, occurred from 1987 to 1992 and from 1928 to 1934. Both, Stine said, are minor compared to the ancient droughts of 850 to 1090 and 1140 to 1320.

        Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, says that the West is in a 20-year drought that began in 2000. He cites the fact that a phenomenon known as a “negative Pacific decadal oscillation” is underway — and that historically has been linked to extreme high-pressure ridges that block storms.

        Such events, which cause pools of warm water in the North Pacific Ocean and cool water along the California coast, are not the result of global warming, Patzert said. But climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels has been linked to longer heat waves. That wild card wasn’t around years ago.

        “Long before the Industrial Revolution, we were vulnerable to long extended periods of drought. And now we have another experiment with all this CO2 in the atmosphere where there are potentially even more wild swings in there,” said Graham Kent, a University of Nevada geophysicist who has studied submerged ancient trees in Fallen Leaf Lake near Lake Tahoe.

    • Re:Real, but (Score:5, Informative)

      by hey! ( 33014 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:31AM (#54654303) Homepage Journal

      Here's a pro tip: look up the result in other sources using google [google.com], find a more useful source [nationalgeographic.com] that tells you things like the name of the journal [nature.com] the research was published in.

      In this case it was Nature Climate Change, a relatively new offshoot of the prestigious journal Nature. Nature Climate Change was established in 2011, but by last year ut gad achieved an impact factor of over 19, making it the most cited journal in its field. This doesn't mean it's infallible, but it means it doesn't have to scrape the bottom of the research barrel to fill its pages. This paper may be right or it may be wrong, but it's pretty much guaranteed not to be garbage.

      Knowing the journal name makes it trivial to find the original paper [nature.com], or at least the abstract.

      Still it is never possible to know the significance of a paper or a study in the short term. You have to wait until it is cited in a review paper [wikipedia.org], which will summarize all the supporting and conflicting results that followed any particular piece of research. You should never make a life decision (change what you eat) or policy decision based on any single paper until it has been cited and characterized as sound in a review paper published in a high impact factor journal.

    • What does it really matter if it's alarmist or not at this point? The people who need to listen have already made up their minds anyway, and no adjustment of the volume knob or rewriting of the content is going to change that. We're on a trajectory, and our RCS has failed completely; burn-through of the hull is imminent; smoke 'em if you got 'em, you probably won't get another chance.
  • Heatwaves are a thing. They can be very dramatic.

  • by MrMr ( 219533 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @09:50AM (#54654007)
    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @11:00AM (#54654443)
      According to your link, cold is a bigger killer than heat:

      Based on information from death certificates, 10,649 deaths were attributed to weather-related causes in the United States during 2006â"2010. Nearly one-third of the deaths were attributed to excessive natural heat, and almost two-thirds were attributed to excessive natural cold.

      That said, here's a link to the original paper in Nature [nature.com] rather than some spin piece in Mother Jones. The 2100 prediction is outright extrapolation, and there's not quite enough history for me to feel confident about the trendline. But there is enough of a historical trend not to dismiss this as mere alarmism as some have posted.

  • by xanthines-R-yummy ( 635710 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @09:51AM (#54654011) Homepage Journal

    Considering most of the globe lives either the tropics or the subtropics, this is probably only going to get worse, especially as the temperate zones become more and more tropical.

    • This!!! Absolutely this! Given that 1/6th of the world's population is in India - a completely tropical country, and big numbers in countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, that makes up those numbers easily. Add up the populations of these countries, tossing in Pakistan & Bangladesh, and one gets 31% of the world's population right there. After that, toss in the population of the countries in the equatorial areas of Africa, such as Congo, and the number easily exceeds it.

      Looks to me more like a

  • Or as those of us in Arizona call it... Summer.

  • the desert is hot (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Surprise, the desert is hot and such high heat is deadly if exposed to it too long. Here is an idea, don't live in the desert.

  • ...so I guess we're all dead then?

    Oh wait, humans are the most adaptable creatures to have ever existed (as far as we know) on this planet.

    Perhaps the snowflakes will melt.

  • Silicon Valley is the high 90's this week. Power went out yesterday for a few hours, making the afternoon heat unbearable without the fans. Still trying to figure out where to put another fan in the Cougar QBX Mini-ITX case [amzn.to], as the SSD and HDD run ten degrees higher than my fileserver with six HDDs and seven fans. This case is supposed to have enough room for a regular PSU, a dual-slot GPU and a water cooler radiator. I don't have either and there isn't enough room for my fat fingers.

    https://twitter.com/cd [twitter.com]

  • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:07AM (#54654131)

    I find it strange that some people call this alarmism when the truth is that extreme weather conditions were predicted to occur decades ago. It's been going on for a while and we're now getting a taste of its brutal heat. The point is that this brutality is going to spread to much of the planet. In the developed world we have electricity to help cool us and sufficient water to keep our crops alive. However, in the underdeveloped world people will try to survive just like they always have but it won't be enough. Either they will migrate to a cooler climate and/or they will die from the heat. If you don't want mass immigration to devastate your nation, you need to be working on a way to reverse the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

    Considering how lightly most countries are taking this threat, million of people are going to die and millions more will migrate and it will reshape our societies. You can call it alarmism but it's really happening and it's happening right now.

    • by vakuona ( 788200 )

      Millions will perish? Really? I have an even worse prediction for you. More than 10 billion people are going to die in the next 100 years.

      (You see what I did there?)

      Now that isn't to say that we should do nothing about climate change, but if, and it's a big if, the price of climate changes is a few (or even scores of) millions of lives, we need to balance this with the billions whose lives are better off as a result of increase access to energy (including to CO2 producing energy).

      We already have people livi

    • Many of them never came to pass. That perhaps the most generic "there will be extreme weather events" is one of the few that appears to have had merit is telling in itself. Even Miss Cleo could be right once in awhile "There will be a death in your family in the next few years..."

      One of the things that fuels "deniers" is the failure of the climate models to make specific, verifiable predictions that actually occur when predicted. E.g. http://thefederalist.com/2014/... [thefederalist.com]

      • One of the things that fuels "deniers" is the failure of the climate models to make specific, verifiable predictions that actually occur when predicted.

        "The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will be higher than this year year," is a prediction that has been going strong. ;)

  • by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:20AM (#54654231)

    in 1990 it was 122 deg F in Phoenix.

    this is alarmist trash, study the history of heat waves and find out when the massive deaths were. Hint, not recently. 5,000 dead in the 1936 north american heat wave, for example

    kids. imagining any and every bad thing that happens in their lifetime is the world's greatest tragedy. pffft, this is alarmist nonsense.

    • by djinn6 ( 1868030 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @11:13AM (#54654527)
      Weather is not climate. One heat wave 80 years ago doesn't prove anything, especially not if you're comparing the two by the number of deaths. People didn't have AC back then, so of course more died.

      Last year was already the warmest year on record, 0.94 C above mid-20th century mean, and we've been having very warm years for the last 2 decades [noaa.gov]. If your point was that temperatures aren't rising, then I'm going to want to see some data to back up your claims. Even if it's just where you live, can you show temperatures have been flat or falling in the past 4 decades? Or do you just have worse and worse memory and can't remember how cold it was back then?
    • Pre air conditioning. The question isn't has it always been this way but rather what are we doing to make it better?
    • by Holi ( 250190 )
      You mean you have to compare it to Phoenix's all time high?
    • in 1990 it was 122 deg F in Phoenix.

      Which is pretty much a confirmation of the article.

  • The highest temperature in Arizona's recorded history was 128 degrees, on June 29, 1994

    seems like we are moving in the right direction then, good job humons

  • by dschnur ( 61074 ) on Tuesday June 20, 2017 @10:45AM (#54654377)
    I've lived in Phoenix most of my life. My family has been in Arizona since the 1930's. It's the summer now, it's hot.

    Late June has always been the hottest part of the year in the southern desert. The high today is well within the curve we expect this time of year. Insane hot? Yes. Atypical, no. Fun watching some unlucky Weather Channel reporter standing outside in the sun saying "Yep it's hot." We try not to do that ourselves.

    However:

    Yearly average temperatures are hotter than before. It's getting hot earlier in the year and staying hot until much later in the year. It's not attention-grabbing enough to say that it didn't drop below freezing for the past two years in Phoenix, but that is significant. It's just significant in a way that has more to do with microclimate, rather than macroclimate.

    Over the years, Phoenix has grown. It's now the 5th largest city in the US. Phoenix also has many satellite cities. Some of them are major cities in their own right. For example, Mesa by it's self is slightly bigger than Atlanta GA. What that means is lots of concrete, paved roads, and air conditioning. All produce or retain heat. Phoenix has developed an urban "Heat Island," which repels rain storms and makes the city even hotter.

    In other words, the Temperature in Phoenix today is NOT a valid indicator of global climate.

    Now, let's go two hours North of Phoenix to Sedona and Flagstaff. Those smaller cities are in forested areas which are drier and slightly warmer than before. It's easy to see large swaths of dead trees in the forests caused by the stresses of longer-term changes in climate (and poor forest management.)

    Now for the irony:
    Most voters in Arizona take it in faith that what they are told by their political party is correct. Arizona is also strongly Republican. See where I'm heading? Strange if you think of it. Perhaps it's the heat?

      -D
  • How much of the world's population is exposed to deadly cold waves?

    Below-freezing weather is pretty unsurvivable unless you have shelter and artificial heating. A lot of the world's population lives in areas that occasionally get below freezing.

    It makes sense that as the planet warms, deadly cold waves will become less common - isn't it only fair to take this into account as well?

    • Below-freezing weather is pretty unsurvivable unless you have shelter and artificial heating.
      An Iglu does not need artificial heating to be warm. The body heat of the people inside is enough.

      It makes sense that as the planet warms, deadly cold waves will become less common
      In the far north, far south and everywhere with appropriated hight: it will always be cold in 'winter'.

  • The problem I see is that we like to place the blame at the feet of somebody else. Maybe folks need some encouragement?
    • Do you dive a vehicle (rarely) and it NEVER averages below 50MPG on a tank of gas (or maybe it's all electric?)
    • Do you keep your smart phone for more than 5 years to avoid the costs to the environment?
    • Do you keep your air conditioning on only as needed and only to keep temperatures "acceptable" and not pleasant?
    • Do you avoid disposable plastics and recycle all that you do use?
    • Have you given
  • Have reached lows. Have a look at the map at

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ [unl.edu]

    Just 5 percent of the United States is experiencing drought conditions, the lowest level of drought here since government scientific agencies began updating the U.S. Drought Monitor on a weekly basis in 2000.

  • Someone at some point decided "Yeah, let's stop here. This crappy desert with no water and no place to grow crops is a lovely place to live. I'm sure it won't get any better if we keep walking," and then set up cities in places like the middle east and north Africa. They're really the ones to blame, not climate change. Those places were hot even before CO2 went nuts.

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