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Earth News Science Technology

The Sixth Mass Extinction Will Hit The Biggest Animals The Hardest, Says Stanford Study (gizmodo.com) 156

The sixth mass extinction will be an event triggered by people and will hit the biggest animals the hardest. "There is no past event that looks biologically like what's happening today," says lead study author Jonathan Payne of Stanford University. "Processes like warming and ocean acidification are not the dominant cause of threat in the modern ocean." Gizmodo reports: A paleontologist by training, Payne and his research group started compiling data on modern marine organisms several years back, in order to study how body size and ecological traits have changed over evolutionary time. Payne, who has studied the End Permian extinction event that wiped out more than 95 percent of all marine species 250 million years ago, soon realized that his dataset -- which included living and extinct members of nearly 2,500 marine genera -- could serve another purpose. By comparing the extinction threat faced by modern marine genera (as indicated by their official conservation status) with their ancestral counterparts, Payne and his colleagues discovered that modern extinction threat is more strongly associated with body size. Larger animals face a greater risk of disappearing than smaller animals. Today, the dominant driver of marine extinction is people, and people aren't terribly selective about which environments they pluck animals from. We go for the biggest game, fishing down the food web and removing top predators. Within species, too, we tend to hunt the largest individuals, which is why North Atlantic cod and Chesapeake oysters were historically much larger. "In a sense, we're driving evolution [toward smaller individuals]," Payne said. What's worth noting is that the Stanford researchers only looked at organisms whose extinction risk has been assessed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which creates a bias towards big, charismatic groups like fish, sea turtles, marine mammals, etc. The marine genera that were analyzed only had fossil counterparts, too. Gizmodo also notes that the study "excluded corals, which are currently in the midst of a catastrophic, global die-off."
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The Sixth Mass Extinction Will Hit The Biggest Animals The Hardest, Says Stanford Study

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 14, 2016 @10:44PM (#52890803)

    We are all used to the relentless exponential growth of the human population.
    But there is another exponential, the one with negative rate, the one of the things that decrease exponentially.

    In the last 40 years, while the human population doubled, both marine and terrestrial wildlife halved :
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-16/half-marine-life-lost-in-40-years/6779912
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26290-worlds-wildlife-population-halved-in-just-40-years.html

    Even the relatively protected Great Barrier Reef halved in less than 40 years :
    http://www.scienceinpublic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Full-PNAS-paper-for-publication.pdf

    Nature is being converted into humanity at exponential rate and it's getting worse :
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/world-population-will-soar-higher-than-predicted/

    • You just repeated the point that the scientists made: humans are consuming the larger forms of marine life at an unsustainable pace.

      There is hope though. Whales have made quite a recovery since the Russians stopped slaughtering them. International agreements on fishing can make a difference.

    • Nature is being converted into humanity at exponential rate and it's getting worse

      Yep. At this point I'm just hoping that I get to die of natural causes before Soylent Green happens. Once we eat everything else...

  • We are on the brink of a much, much bigger change than people realize. Computers will soon think. Not within 20 years, but certainly within 200 years. And they will end up much more intelligent than us.

    What will they think about? And what will they think about us?

    What makes us think the way that we do? Why do we care about extinction? Ultimately there is only one answer, Natural Selection conditioned us that way.

    So, what will ultimately drive an artificial intelligence? Same thing. Natural Selectio

    • Don't get carried away. Computers simply run programs. Calling what they do "AI" or "thinking" is incorrect. They simply compute, albeit using ever more complex algorithms.
      • Until they're not. If you can't define what causes consciousness and self awareness, you can't say something won't develop it.
        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • Well, your crap is not self-replicating, nor is it improving its "programming" (and we can all be thankful for that). I assume you flush.

            I, for one, welcome our robot overlords. We're all dead in the long run anyhow, and an inorganic legacy has a better chance of survival than flesh.
            • Comment removed based on user account deletion
              • It's about as likely to get sentient as my computer is.

                Don't forget that in the distant past, multicellular life which sentient human life is a branch of, evolved from eucariotic life. So it *is* possible, just takes a few billion years and a whole planet inhabited with bacteria to produce enough diversity so that this happens.

          • I don't really see what feaces have to do with anything. They're not equivalent to a Turing machine with a limited length tape. Both the brain and computers are.

      • They simply compute, albeit using ever more complex algorithms.

        Whereas brains do what exactly? In order for them to do something that can't be run on a computer, they would have to be super-turing somehow.

        • They simply compute, albeit using ever more complex algorithms.

          Whereas brains do what exactly? In order for them to do something that can't be run on a computer, they would have to be super-turing somehow.

          While I broadly agree with you, I was under the impression that there is absolutely no research whatsoever indicating that a turing machine can model a human brain. It's never been done and only been speculated in fiction.

          IOW, what makes you think brains are not a product of a model better than the turing machine (super-turing?). 'Cos claiming that a brain can be modeled with nothing more than a turing machine is inaccurate at best: we don't know what model the brain uses. We barely know which areas light u

          • While I broadly agree with you, I was under the impression that there is absolutely no research whatsoever indicating that a turing machine can model a human brain. It's never been done and only been speculated in fiction.

            I'd say something of the opposite. As far as we know, all computing systems are essentially equivalent for various definitions of equivalent. I think at this point you'd want research to show they're not equivalent.

            IOW, what makes you think brains are not a product of a model better than t

            • Because so far every model of hypercomputation requires something non physical. I

              Isn't that an argument from ignorance? You are saying we can't think of anything better than a Turing machine, so something better must not exist. Despite the fact that you admit we don't understand the brain either......your argument is based on intuition that the brain must be a computer. Which seems like a reasonable intuition, and it is a good working hypothesis, but don't confuse it with fact.

              As far as we know, all computing systems are essentially equivalent for various definitions of equivalent. I think at this point you'd want research to show they're not equivalent.

              No, this is not true. There are various types of computation machines: single stack machines, dual stack machin

              • Isn't that an argument from ignorance?

                No.

                You are saying we can't think of anything better than a Turing machine, so something better must not exist.

                Did you read about the bit about a physical hypercomputer meaning we can prove things with a machine which are mathematically unprovable? We can think of things better, and have done a lot. They're interesting mathematical constructs and we can prove all sorts of things about them.

                In fact IIRC Turing even discussed super-turing machines which are essentially a

                • No, a hypercomputer is a thing, but certainly not the only thing.

                  For example, we perceive the world as being logical.....but our logic system is based on axioms, it isn't a proven thing. Perhaps our brains understanding of logic limits us, just as a being based on a finite automata would be limited by its 'worldview' to not even conceive things beyond.
                  • What you are saying is that we cannot simulate physical systems on our computers.

                    So, stop waffling and address that point.

                    • You can't, in fact, mathematically model the most basic system in full detail.

                      A computer is incapable of modeling a simple pendulum. It must model a greatly simplified version. No string mass, stretch, or break, point mass, no change in G force etc.

                      Accurately modeling a single nerve cell junction is still far beyond our capabilities. Statistical methods must be used to model synapse chemistry.

                      You can of course write down difference equations for all those factors, but you'll never get a closed form s

                    • That's a good question.
                    • A computer is incapable of modeling a simple pendulum. It must model a greatly simplified version. No string mass, stretch, or break, point mass, no change in G force etc.

                      You can model all of those things plus air resistance and thermal effects.

                      For the rest of the post you're confusing computability with feasibility. We can write PDEs and solve them with arbitrarily high precision too. They get intractable for large systems but that doesn't make the systems non computable, merely very difficult.

                      So, you've

                    • Once you get to a level of 'quite difficult' that amounts to 'can't do before the heat death of the universe if you turn the entire milky way into idealized quantum computers' you're not very far from 'impossible'.

                      More on point (and something I have professional experience with): The human brain is a chaotic system. You will never be able to 'model' it as it is non-deterministic. e.g. The best you can do is run multiple simulations of her brain and give you a best probability line of bullsht to feed her.

  • We should let a message somewhere this time, for the next civilization in a few million years not to do the same mistakes!
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • The largest animals will be the best protected by humans. Witness the giant panda, which is no longer endangered [livescience.com] due to conservation efforts. The same will be true of elephants, giraffe, bears, gorillas, whales, and any other animals we care about, which includes pretty much all the large ones.

    • The largest animals will be the best protected by humans. Witness the giant panda, which is no longer endangered due to conservation efforts. The same will be true of elephants, giraffe, bears, gorillas, whales, and any other animals we care about, which includes pretty much all the large ones.

      The problem is that it only takes one dickhead to kill any of those animals except maybe a whale (you've got to get to where they are, etc.) and there are multitudes of dickheads shitting on world economies and motivating that dickhead to go out and get some ivory or what have you. It's dickheads all the way down. There's no salvation for these species there.

      • And yet, in Western countries, animals such as bears are doing fine, and once-rare species like bison and wolves are recovering nicely.

        Poaching of African wildlife is a major problem, but if central Africa manages to decrease its poverty and warfare the way the rest of the world has done, its animals will survive too. If not, they will still survive in zoos.

        • And yet, in Western countries, animals such as bears are doing fine,

          What? Who told you that? The polar bear is well and rightly fucked, and the Grizzly is also seriously boned — they're waking up early and hungry. Even the brown bear inhabits only a minuscule percentage of its former territory.

          and once-rare species like bison and wolves are recovering nicely.

          Wolves are doing OK since we're not poisoning them right now and there's no commercial demand for any wolf products. Bison are doing well because we've got a commercial use which involves preserving them, and because they can be treated more or less like a domesticated animal. T

    • by Nehmo ( 757404 )
      The accepted or legal definition of "endangered" doesn't count for much. The actual list of endangered species is much larger than the official one. The listing is a complicated and political process: https://www.fws.gov/endangered... [fws.gov]
  • by Anonymous Coward

    In my native language, the Milky Way is called "Bird's track." Anyone watching the bird migration today can see only few flocks here and there. At the time when the word was born, the migratory birds were filling the sky from the horizon to horizon, just like the Milky Way.

    • I don't need to know your native language to know why it is called that (I rather like the term, Milky Way just makes me think of candy bars). It is because the milky way is mostly north-south overhead. Migration patterns of birds are mostly north-south.

  • Unlike the previous 5 mass extinction events, which instead hit the biggest animals the hardest.

    That's what mass extinctions do. If you are big, you die. If you live on the land, you'll likely die. If you are a specialized animal rather than a generalist, you'll die.

    Go see a cheetah while you can.

  • So you're saying we should sear up some rhino steaks while we still have the chance.
  • Will it kill off the giant bag of douches that is Gawker Media and Univision?
  • If larger animals are going to be hit harder- it doesn't sound good for Americans. The African Pygmy tribe will inherit the earth.

  • If "Larger animals face a greater risk of disappearing than smaller animals" and "In a sense, we're driving evolution toward smaller individuals", then they should be thanking us for preparing them to survive the mass extinction!

Some people manage by the book, even though they don't know who wrote the book or even what book.

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