SpaceX Finds a Customer For Its First Reused Rocket (arstechnica.com) 121
What do you do after you successfully land a rocket on a floating barge in the Atlantic? You reuse it. SpaceX has been on the hunt for someone to reuse some of its first-stage Falcon boosters, and now SpaceX has finally found a customer. Ars Technica reports: "The Luxembourg-based satellite operator SES said Tuesday that it intends to launch a geostationary satellite, SES 10, on a reusable rocket in the fourth quarter of this year. SpaceX has not yet specified how much it will charge for launch services on one of its flown boosters, but industry officials anticipate about a 30 percent discount on SpaceX's regular price of $62 million for a Falcon 9 launch. The company has not shared how much it is spending to refurbish and reuse a Falcon 9 stage, nor has it offered much public information about the extent to which the vehicle's engines have had to be tested and prepared for a second flight." "Having been the first commercial satellite operator to launch with SpaceX back in 2013, we are excited to once again be the first customer on SpaceX's first ever mission using a flight-proven rocket," said Martin Halliwell, Chief Technology Officer at SES. "We believe reusable rockets will open up a new era of spaceflight and make access to space more efficient in terms of cost and manifest management."
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At 30% discount a year? Sure! Do you have change for $ 0.23?
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Why did you use 54.4 years for the discounting?
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Because there isn't a single list price for a '93 Escort; it depends on the body type and engine.
I also took into account haggling on the price.
Also, the number was chosen randomly.
SpaceX offered us a 99% discount! (Score:2)
Still higher than a Soyuz launch (Score:1)
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It is pretty clear that SES goes into the deal because of political reasons.
All space agencies that doesn't have their own capability to launch their satellites would benefit from having private entities that can do it for them.
The countries that do have the capability still wants the competition around to have something to compare their own costs against.
Even if creating those entities are primarily a US project there are plenty of organizations willing to throw money at it in the hope that they will be su
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Re: Still higher than a Soyuz launch (Score:2)
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Where did you get you number? That's way lower than what these guys think the Soyuz cost is: http://www.globalsecurity.org/... [globalsecurity.org]
Also, geostationary != LEO.
Re: Still higher than a Soyuz launch (Score:2)
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The last Falcon launch brought JCSAT-16 to a supersynchronous orbit, very definitely not LEO, with the apogee at 36183 km and the apogee 151 km, and about 20 degrees inclination off of equatorial. The apogee was a bit higher than geostationary. The remaining load for on-board propulsion is to change the inclination (which is most economical to do with a burn at apogee) and to circularize the orbit (raise the perigee).
By giving the satellite a kick to high orbit, the Falcon 9 saves fuel on the satellite that
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Comparing Apples to Orchards (Score:2)
Re:Still higher than a Soyuz launch (Score:5, Informative)
The Soyuz (Actually, Progress [wikipedia.org]. Soyuz is for people) has much smaller capacity. A payload of 2,400 kg and AFAIK, doesn't go past LEO.
Falcon 9 [wikipedia.org] has a payload of 22,800 kg to LEO, and 8,300 kg to geostationary orbit. Three times more expensive you say? Sure, it can also carry 9 times more stuff and father away.
Shame on you, and whoever modded you up (Score:5, Informative)
You are comparing apples to oranges. Progress is a spacecraft, not a rocket. Falcon 9 is a rocket, not a spacecraft. They cannot be directly compared, because they aren't even the same class of thing! SpaceX's equivalent of Progress is the Dragon capsule.
The Soyuz ROCKET [wikipedia.org], specifically the newest version (called Soyuz-2 [wikipedia.org], has a payload of 8200 kg to LEO and 3250 kg to GTO. It's still not nearly so powerful as Falcon 9, even the reusable configuration (I believe the numbers you quoted omit the F9's grid fins, landing legs, and reserved fuel for recovery), but it's far more than one ninth as powerful.
Sigh...
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What a mixup.
There's a Soyuz rocket and a Soyuz spacecraft. Progress (pressurised cargo) and Soyuz spacecraft (pressurised humans) are payloads for the Soyuz rocket.
The Soyuz rocket comes in different variants, all based on the R7 rocket family [wikipedia.org], first flown 1957! In active service are 5 variants.
Soyuz 2.1b has a payload to LEO of 8,200kg and a listed price of around $50M
The russian cargo work horse is the Proton-M [wikipedia.org]
With a LEO capacity of 23,000kg and an estimatet price of $68M
Rocket names (Score:2)
Even more confusing, the actual Russian name for the rocket for years used to be simply "Number 7" ("Semyorka")
Seat? Same cost, Falcon 2.5X capacity (Score:5, Interesting)
Are you confusing the cost of one SEAT on a Soyuz vs the cost of the entire Falcoln 9? Even if so, the whole Falcoln 9 isn't three times the cost of a seat on a Soyuz.
The Soyuz 2 costs about $57 million to take 7,000 pounds to GTO. The Falcon 9 is about $62 million to take 18,000 pounds. So about the same total cost per launch, but the Falcon 9 FT carries over twice as much.
I your satellite is 7,000 lbs or less, you can either split the cost with another customer and pay about $30 million on the Falcoln, or pay $57 million on Soyuz. Falcoln wins on cost. If your payload is over 7,000 pounds, Soyuz won't get you there at any cost, unless you split it into multiple launches at $57 million each. Falcoln wins again.
On the other hand, IF you spent $100 million building the cargo, you might prefer to spend more on the Soyuz due to its proven track record.
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Profit motive is less cost than all the powerful peoples idiot nieces/nephews that come with state control.
Don't look at theory, look at history. State run programs suck. Spreading the pork to every single congressional district is not the way to build rockets.
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There are no commercial satellite launches? You're just wrong.
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This is very far from the facts. Satellite TV alone is six times NASA's budget, and twice all of US government programs (NASA, DOD, weather satellites). Worldwide, the satellite industry is 2/3 of the total of space-related GDP, and government funding 1/3.
SES, which is SpaceX's customer for the used rocket, operates *40* communications satellites. They are the largest private satellite operator, which is why they are willing to take the risk. First, if the rocket blows up, it was insured, and only repre
Once reuse is proven to be economically feasible.. (Score:2)
Once reuse is proven to be economically feasible..the problem will be getting people to pay the extra $$ to use the new ones to keep the supply of discounted rockets available.
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At multiple millions of dollars for a thirty minute flight I'm damn sure going to the plane, pilot AND the flight attendants.
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why would the rocket core be any different?
Because there's such a thing as satellite insurance, which considers the launch vehicle in determining its rates.
If reused rockets are as reliable as new ones, then this shouldn't be a factor at all. But if there is a difference, the customer will face a higher insurance bill.
Also, if a launch is particularly important to my company then I might want whichever vehicle is more reliable, regardless of whether it is new or rebuilt.
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Once reuse is proven to be economically feasible..
Except it won't be, and hasn't - certainly not with rockets.
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You went to government school, didn't you (Score:2)
Here you a grown adult and can't do third-grade arithmetic. I'm going to hazard a guess that you went to public school.
Suppose you're using the most common satellite form factor, the cubesat (or tubesat). You spend $10,000 building it, and if needed you can build a replacement for $10,000. You can either spend $40,000 to launch it on a time-tested rocket, or spend $20,000 on a less established vehicle.
If it goes well, your total cost is $50,000 for the old rocket, $30,000 on the new rocket. New rocket wins
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On the other hand, IF you spent $100 million building the cargo, you might prefer to spend more on the Soyuz due to its proven track record.
Then again, part of the reason that you spent 100m$ on building the cargo, is that the launch was been so darn expensive.
You could propably build a supercheap satelite with the exact same functionallity for a fraction of the cost using standard parts. Then again since the launch costs you 60m$-400m$ depending on vehicle and destination, you really wanna make sure the satellite functions perfectly when arriving.
Just saying that if the launch prices go down far enough we will see a whole another market
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Satellites are already required to be able to de-orbit.
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Satellites are already required to be able to de-orbit.
Well, depends on the orbit. Geostationary satellites will never, ever de-orbit. That would take almost as much fuel to get up there as to get back down again, which makes it non-optimal (rocket equation and all that). However, when the spacecraft goes end-of-life, they are required to raise its orbit by 160km or so, vent all remaining propellants, and blow fusable links to permanently shutdown the craft. That keeps it from exploding, and leaves it as being easily trackable.
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I agree that Elon is way too self-indulgent. Forget about the simulation remark, hyperloop is either cynical in nature (meant to divert funds from real trains) or wildly underestimating the costs and safety issues.
However, I think you're wrong about the space junk issue. One of the problems right now is the lack of any way to economically de-orbit legacy space hardware in high orbits. You don't get that without economical access to space.
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The engineering is the expensive bit (Score:5, Interesting)
Then again, part of the reason that you spent 100m$ on building the cargo, is that the launch was been so darn expensive.
The reason that you spent that much money building the cargo has comparatively little to do with the cost of the launch and everything to do with the fact that you really don't get multiple chances to get it right plus the fact that the destination has pretty much the harshest environmental conditions imaginable. Satellites and probes are expensive because they are (usually) one off bespoke products designed from scratch. If Ford could only sell a single Ford Taurus but it needed to be build to the same standards as the production model you can buy from a dealer you better believe it would cost many millions of dollars.
You could propably build a supercheap satelite with the exact same functionallity for a fraction of the cost using standard parts.
I run a company that makes custom wire harnesses for all sorts of applications. We've had some of our products go into space. The notion that you could build a "supercheap satelite" using "standard parts" is more or less nonsense at present. Maybe in the distant future that will be true but for all but a handful of corner cases it isn't true today and won't be for some time to come. It is possible to design a set of standardized space rated components but we're a long way away from that happy state of affairs for most applications.
First off "standard parts" (stuff you can order from a catalog) are generally not designed with space travel in mind. I buy components daily from distributors and they are designed for particular environmental conditions. You exceed these conditions at your own peril. Space travel is WELL outside of the performance specifications envelope for most off the shelf components. Even for the comparatively few off the shelf parts you can buy that will work, the components are not what really makes it expensive.
Second, even if you can find some components that would work in space you most likely are still building a custom product. I can assure you that a single version of anything custom that has to be right the first time is not going to be cheap. If you want your product to work for any meaningful length of time there are going to be very detailed assembly instructions, designs, reviews, audits, checks, test procedures and calibrations. You have to make sure the whole thing works together even if the components individually would be fine in space. You will spend enormous amounts of engineering time to do even the seemingly simplest things because you only get one chance to get them right. All of this is very expensive. You can try to do in on the cheap and hope you get lucky but in my experience customers who buy components for space travel aren't real fans of trusting to luck.
Third, to reduce costs of engineering you need to be able to design products that can be sold multiple times. Then you can spread the engineering costs across them. I expect that will happen eventually but right now most products intended for space are one off designs so there are no economies of scale to be enjoyed. There will have to be considerable standardization of products before that happens and we're a long way from that right now. Kind of like in the early days of aviation we're still figuring out what works because you don't want to build a lot of something that doesn't work.
Just saying that if the launch prices go down far enough we will see a whole another market of cheap hardware, where the reason for building really expensive satelites or other cargo partly vanishes.
They would have to go down a LOT further for that to be the case. I'm talking almost unrealistically cheaper. Science fiction levels of cheaper. Nothing that is likely to happen in my lifetime cheaper. It isn't the hardware that is the primary cost center in many cases. It's the design and engineering and assembly and test
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I think you need to go back to your initial assumption, which might not be true any longer. With lower $/kg to your selected orbit, replacing a satellite is economically possible and building a satellite with a much shorter projected lifetime is probably optimal because the alternative is for the o
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The other assumption of spacecraft uniqueness is becoming less and less true. Most of the bigger comm satellites are built on a more or less common backplane. The radios are not one off devices. They are still hella expensive because things have to be fairly robust to get to and survive in space, but we're seeing more and more benefits of commonality and at least low volume production costs.
Comm satellites costs have come down significantly in the past decade, especially when you figure in performance an
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Standardized parts (Score:2)
The other assumption of spacecraft uniqueness is becoming less and less true. Most of the bigger comm satellites are built on a more or less common backplane. The radios are not one off devices.
To a meaningful degree this is true. I would expect some amount of standardization over time and there is some evidence of it happening. But we're still a long time away from spacecraft that are built from parts you can buy from a figurative Digi-Key if you get what I mean. It will (probably) happen but it's going to take a non-trivial amount of time.
Still figuring it out (Score:2)
With lower $/kg to your selected orbit, replacing a satellite is economically possible and building a satellite with a much shorter projected lifetime is probably optimal because the alternative is for the operator to be stuck with 20-year-old technology in orbit
The $/kg to orbit would need to fall quite a lot to make it practical to design less robust equipment. And the difference in cost between a satellite designed to last 5 years vs one designed to last 10 years or more is probably not a linear function and the engineering costs will be very large in either case. To make up an example with bogus numbers even if you cut 1/3 out of the engineering costs it still will be a big number. Even if you can cut some corners by being able to launch more frequently you
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The reason that you spent that much money building the cargo has comparatively little to do with the cost of the launch and everything to do with the fact that you really don't get multiple chances to get it right plus the fact that the destination has pretty much the harshest environmental conditions imaginable. Satellites and probes are expensive because they are (usually) one off bespoke products designed from scratch. If Ford could only sell a single Ford Taurus but it needed to be build to the same standards as the production model you can buy from a dealer you better believe it would cost many millions of dollars.
If you build cheap and many because launch costs are low, then you do get multiple chances. If you build one large then it will damn well have to work perfectly for a very long time. Downside of one large satellite working for a long time is that you are stuck with with outdated hardware.
You are basically describing old space.
They would have to go down a LOT further for that to be the case. I'm talking almost unrealistically cheaper. Science fiction levels of cheaper. Nothing that is likely to happen in my lifetime cheaper. It isn't the hardware that is the primary cost center in many cases. It's the design and engineering and assembly and test requirements. Those are harder to minimize without having economies of scale. Don't get me wrong, I think it will happen eventually but it's going to take quite a while. Launching stuff into space is so expensive that the pace of progress is necessarily slow. It's going to take decades if not centuries to get a set of standardized products we can launch into space with very low cost.
You are wrong. There are companies building satellites from standard cheap components already today. They send up many smaller ones, instead of one large expensive.
This is one of my
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Well, basic probability. P(any succeed) = 1 - P(None succeed)
P(Failure) = 0.1
P(All Fail) = 0.1^3
P(any succeed) = 1 - 0.1^3 = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999 = 99.9%
So for 3 satellites with 90% chance, equals out.
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> Then again, part of the reason that you spent 100m$ on building the cargo, is that the launch was been so darn expensive.
Having worked in Boeing's space system division, this is explicitly a trade-off we do and understand. You can spend more engineering effort to make a satellite lighter. This allows you to pack in more transponders or fuel, increasing the revenue the satellite can earn. Lighter happens from better solar arrays, TWT amplifiers, structural materials, and propulsion systems. These co
Cheaper than Soyuz, and lifts much more (Score:4, Informative)
Soyuz rocket launch cost is 48-61 millions depending on configuration (LEO launches cheaper due no upper stage)
Soyuz capasity to is 8.2 tonnes to LEO and 3.25 tonnes to GTO.
Falcon 9 expendable capasity is 22.8 tonnes to LEO and 8.3 tonnes to GTO,
and Falcon 9(stage 1 recoverable) capasity is over 13 tonnes to LEO(propably much more) and 5.5 tonnes to GTO.
So, falcon 9 on fully expendable mode lifts over 2.5x more than soyuz, and falcon 9 on stage 1 recoverable mode lift over 1.5 x more than soyuz.
This means that:
for LEO launches, reused reusable(assuming the 30% discount) falcon 9 is 10% cheaper than Soyuz, while lifting over 1.5 times more.
for GTO launches, reused reusable(assuming the 30% discount) falcon 9 is 29% cheaper than Soyuz, while lifting about 1.7 times more.
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This means that:
for LEO launches, reused reusable(assuming the 30% discount) falcon 9 is 10% cheaper than Soyuz, while lifting over 1.5 times more.
for GTO launches, reused reusable(assuming the 30% discount) falcon 9 is 29% cheaper than Soyuz, while lifting about 1.7 times more.
That may all be true but we hate Capitalism, the West, and Elon Musk, so Soyuz is better. /s
Strat
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SpaceX received government funding to develop capabilities the government wanted. Which they have done.
And competitors (specifically ULA) got the same deal with government-funded development---they just started decades ago as individual companies, so everyone forgot that it happened.
Private commercial launches are not subsidized in any way. If SpaceX survives at $62m per launch, that is an improvement over the status quo.
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Russia uses Proton for heavy lifting, Soyuz for lighter loads and manned flights. Proton is more or less the same as Falcon 9 FT in launch cost and capacity, with the difference that Proton is man-rated, even though it never had a manned flight.
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>$62 million That is three times the cost of a Soyuz launch
While I've been curious to see SpaceX's progress and the evolution of their technology, the one thing I have always been highly skeptical of are their launch costs. I simply don't believe them. They have to be covering them through an accounting trick via an investor scam or government subsidies.
The reusable thing has been a pipe dream for many decades, but I can't see it being done by standard rockets. The recovery of the vehicle, checking and the shear violence and wear and tear of the process just mak
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If you are concerned about the "shear violence", I suggest you go to 1 Rocket Rd, Hawthorne, CA, cross-street is Crenshaw. Stand in front of the building. SpaceX has left a rocket right on the front lawn for you to look at, a first stage that returned from lifting the Dragon capsule to ISS. It got to 1/5 orbital velocity (the second stage does the rest), burned its rockets for about 2.5 minutes, was in the air for les
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And SpaceX has that chunk of metal sitting on their lawn because they plan to relaunch it?
No, it's just a hulk on cinder blocks, like people find in lower income neighborhoods all around the country. Yep, they're gonna get that thing running, sometime....
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That's the part about blind faith regarding SpaceX, Tesla, Musk et al I find perplexing. People unable to use the grey matter between their
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Reusable launch of the hulk of metal on their lawn isn't going to happen.
The reuse concept still has to be proven. More than 'proven possible' it has to be proven cost-effective.
The problem with space-heads is they consider every challenge to be not only attainable, but worth attaining.
Generally, they figure we can trash this planet, because we're moving on out. The tricky thing is, we're not as individual as some might pretend. Do you know all the symbonic links necessary to maintain your life? Will it
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If you are so ready to monkey wrench, nuclear war is still the #1 risk of wiping out the ecology completely. Get at it. Second to that, you should work on the lazziez-faire economics variety of capitalism and the me-first variety of libertarianism, because they are the major political movements campaigns for those who ignore externalities of their activities. Neo-liberal economics of the Alan Greenspan variety should be a target too. And then all of the folks who feel that they should have as many babies as
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If you are concerned about the "shear violence", I suggest you go to 1 Rocket Rd, Hawthorne, CA, cross-street is Crenshaw. Stand in front of the building. SpaceX has left a rocket right on the front lawn for you to look at, a first stage that returned from lifting the Dragon capsule to ISS. It got to 1/5 orbital velocity (the second stage does the rest), burned its rockets for about 2.5 minutes, was in the air for less than 10 minutes overall.
Yadda, yadda, yadda. I hear this crap constantly. It need to functions and turn around like an airliner for this whole thing to be profitable and reduce costs in the amount needed. That ain't going to happen with a rocket. Ever.
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The recovery of the vehicle, checking and the shear violence and wear and tear of the process just make it a dead-end IMO.
People with better qualifications than you believe otherwise.
My grandpa is a technology enthusiast, and he still remembers the naysayers in the 1950s and 1960s who were absolutely certain that travel to the moon was impossible. They had all kinds of reasons why it was nothing but a sci-fi dream and a boondoggle. And we know how that turned out.
Could they make a reusable rocket in 1969? Absolutely not. Since 1969, however, our modeling, materials, and avionics have all improved tremendously. The wall of "the
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Fact is, if you want to make big scientific leaps, you gotta do it with a well managed government corporation. If you want to make incremental technical improvements mischaracterised by a brilliant propagandist, you give the job to Musk.
I do have to point out that SpaceX is a government contractor, so it has been doing both the "well managed government corporation" route and the private contractor route. The Falcon-9 was funded by NASA; designed and built under a NASA contract, and had mandatory NASA oversight on key milestones-- at the time they won the NASA contract to design Falcon-9, their success record for launches was one success in four tries.
http://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/the-tale-of-falcon-1-5193845/? [airspacemag.com]
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You know, you really need new propaganda. You've been using that "pencil whip" phrase for a year, and it's just as stupidly irrelevant now as when you first started. There was no "space rating" and we know it. He got approved because he launched a fucking rocket from Kwajalein Atoll that put a dummy payload in orbit. (After blowing up the first two attempts.) That's a helluva lot less "pencil whipping" than SLS is enjoying, which has nothing that flies, yet is still absorbing billions in funding.
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Fact is, if you want to make big scientific leaps, you gotta do it with a well managed government corporation.
Well, it's pity that the US doesn't have this well-managed government corporation, then. Just think what they could accomplish if they had it.
Publicity (Score:2)
The satellite is doing this for the publicity.
A reusable space vessel.. (Score:1)
.. Should have a name.
Here's hoping for a successful re-launch.
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In case you don't know who SES is (Score:1)
SES is the operator of the Astra satellite fleet that provides satellite television to Europe. It has literally hundreds of millions of satellite dishes pointed at their satellites.
"flight proven"? hahah (Score:2)
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Bruce, as a space systems engineer, I can tell you it's all about fatigue life. Materials like aluminum and titanium have a finite number of load cycles they can withstand as a function of the stress level - more stress, less cycles. A 737 is designed to fly around 25,000 times, so the stress has to be low enough to allow that. Traditional expendable rockets literally evolved from ICBM's, and by their nature ballistic missiles are one-use products. So they can be used at higher stress, and therefore lig
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Agreed. But besides the metallurgy, SpaceX accepted a bunch of challenges that nobody else wanted to do, to get as far as they have so far.
Nobody else thought fuel densification was worth it. It complicates the launch window because densified fuel has to be unloaded and cooled off if you don't launch in time, and SpaceX had a few technical hiccups to resolve when they started using it. But it gives them more fuel to work with.
We've been able to land rockets on their tail manually since the terrestrial LEM s
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You are mistaken in thinking that dense fuel is something nobody else wanted to try. USSR did that in the 1970ies, they have even developed a special high density fuel (syntin) but stopped using it in the 1990ies due to high cost of it.
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Sorry, I should have known that most readers would not be up to speed on what SpaceX has done, and I should have explained densification as they've done it. While the Soviets used a chemically denser hydrocarbon, SpaceX has made conventional LOX and kerosene denser by cooling
Re: "flight proven"? hahah (Score:2)
Like i said, fuel cooling was also done by the Soviets - but they have decided that making the fuel more dense chemically is a more practical approach for them. Chills fuel meant more infrastructure (that was always a problem there) and also means that the rocket needs some thermal isolation of the fuel tank, which would make it heavier.
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I see you never visited Luxembourg... (GDP per capita index 271 in 2015 compared to Germany's 125...)
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Falcon Heavy will reuse 3 boosters (Score:2)
SpaceX reusing a booster is a significant milestone but it will really start paying off with Falcon Heavy [wikipedia.org] when they can reuse three boosters from each launch.
No Discount Should Be Offered (Score:3)
They shouldn't offer a discount to fly on a used rocket.
Rather they should simply guarantee every flight.
This is product vs service.
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If this proves to be successful, then we may see a flat cost model. However, this launch will be a first of its kind. There needs to be some incentive to be first when the possibility of your multi-million dollar multi-man-year project has a non-trivial chance of blowing up.
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Yes, and the incentive is the guarantee of success and having your company name associated with that success. That's all it takes. This is marketing.
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That's all it takes. This is marketing.
Yeah, except there's no marketing value for being the first satellite operator to launch on a reused rocket.
Their customers are not the general public; their customers are enterprise, and features/prices matter more than some fleeting bit of newsprint.
I would agree if SES sold to consumers, but they don't. They have no branding in the mind of your average citizen.
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