Electric Vehicles Can Meet Drivers' Needs Enough To Replace 90 Percent of Vehicles Now On The Road (phys.org) 990
An anonymous reader writes from a report via Phys.Org: Researchers at MIT have just completed the most comprehensive study yet to address whether or not existing electric vehicles could bring about a meaningful reduction in the greenhouse-gas emissions that are causing global climate change. Yes, they can. The study was published today in the journal Nature Energy. Phys.Org reports: "'Roughly 90 percent of the personal vehicles on the road daily could be replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle available on the market today, even if the cars can only charge overnight,' Trancik says, 'which would more than meet near-term U.S. climate targets for personal vehicle travel.' Overall, when accounting for the emissions today from the power plants that provide the electricity, this would lead to an approximately 30 percent reduction in emissions from transportation. The team spent four years on the project, which included developing a way of integrating two huge datasets: one highly detailed set of second-by-second driving behavior based on GPS data, and another broader, more comprehensive set of national data based on travel surveys. Together, the two datasets encompass millions of trips made by drivers all around the country. By working out formulas to integrate the different sets of information and thereby track one-second-resolution drive cycles, the MIT researchers were able to demonstrate that the daily energy requirements of some 90 percent of personal cars on the road in the U.S. could be met by today's EVs, with their current ranges, at an overall cost to their owners -- including both purchase and operating costs -- that would be no greater than that of conventional internal-combustion vehicles."
Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Interesting)
People don't have gas stations at home either. Building up infrastructure at home, work, and shopping centers can solve that issue. Every powered kiosk for street parking in urban areas can become a paid charging station. I know plenty of workplaces that offer charging during the day. As for people in dense urban areas like NYC, they largely don't have cars.
We have two 240v charging stations in the garage, for our two super-cheap EVs (Chevy Spark EV and Fiat 500e). Our rooftop solar power production offsets approximately 100% of the power we use, including the cars and electric water heating. We have two other cars that rarely get used.
Rock and roll.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:4, Insightful)
The difference is that people don't have to sit at a gas station overnight. Because filling up your car only takes 10 minutes at a gas station (max), not everyone needs to have one. When you can pull into an electric charging station and leave ten minutes later with a full charge, people will start using electric cars. Also, when it becomes as cheap to buy an electric car with equivalent range (thinking about $12K Honda Civics that get 40mpg).
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The point is you don't sit around and do 'nothing'. Since my wife got her Leaf she's never spent time just standing around waiting at the pump. Come home, pop the flap, plug it in walk inside. Stop thinking of filling up an electric car in the same terms of 'filling up' a gasoline one.
Yes, it is different but it's not that difficult to figure out. The farthest the Leaf has been from home was we tried a 2 charge excursion. Drove to a neighboring city. Ate at a restaurant near a charger. Visited the city. Sta
Not shocked at all (Score:3)
So do you think that you're stating anything that EV owners don't know about or haven't acknowledged? The article states 90%, the EV supporters have generally acknowledged that EVs are not (yet) for everybody.
So you're part of the 10% who aren't ready for EVs. That's fine.
1000km in 13 hours. Let's see. A Tesla model S can have a range of 300 miles. Roughly 500 km. You can get an ~300km [wikipedia.org] of charge in 30 minutes using a supercharger.
So, given that nothing happens instantly, let's say this is moderately i
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Well, you're a somewhat unusual case and it appears an electric car is not for you.
Almost all of my trips recently have involved moving something large from one place to another, which generally requires a van. Naturally it would be a bit silly for me to conclude that cars are useless simply based on some rather unusual driving habits.
So yes. If you're regularly doing something not within the spec of a particular vehicle class, then that vehicle class is not for you. Thankfully there are many vehicle classe
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the other difference is i dont want an extra car. yes, i could get by on 75 miles a day on a charge. i can do that.
until i want to go to the beach. or go shopping in another town. or visit family or friends or go anywhere else and drive around all day and come home. 100 mile charge wont get me to the city i want to go to on the weekend so....what, have a travel car? now i have a commute car and a travel car? boo that.
i do sort of want an electric car with good range. its on my things-i-hope-to-have-in-a-dec
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
but how far can you drive on a 10 minute charge. im pretty sure the person spending 10 minutes to fill a tank can go 2 or 3x's the distance you can on a full nights charge.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
good deflection.
It takes me about 3-4 minutes to fill my 65l tank in my charger. that allows me to go about 500km before a refill. that overnight charge of yours allows you to go how far ? from 100- to at best 170km at a go ?
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good deflection.
No, you're just trying to use a fringe case to favour your bias. Fine, well then how often in your day-to-day use do you have to spend time going to the gas station for a refill? How much do you spend per kilometre in fuel? When was the last time you broke down? How much do you spend per year in maintenance? How much is your road-tax?
Perhaps you're one of those 10% where that fringe case is routine? Well good for you. Now let the other 90% get on with their economical, convenient, low tax, low maintenance
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
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Most (more than 90%) have power where they park. If you disagree with the facts, take them up with those that did the study, rather than raging all over those who are just pointing out the facts in the article. Shooting the messenger is more fun, because they are easier to find, and more likely to not bother to argue the point, as it's obviously not worth it.
It's a self fulfilling prophesy. 90% have power where they park because otherwise they wouldn't buy the electric car in the first place.
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Well, nice. The issue is that if 90% of cars would be electric, all those cars would need an always available overnight charging station, but not all people have their own garages and unless plugs for charging would be available _everywhere_ on the street - so you can plug the car in at every position on your street - this 90% is simply not viable. Even today there are cases where you have to wait for charging stations to
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Interesting)
No, you're just trying to use a fringe case to favour your bias..
People buy stuff FOR the fringe cases.
The cooler that can keep stuff frozen for 48 hours is a fringe case.
The video card that can do 60 FPS on the latest game is the fringe case.
The stereo, laser printer, TV, and microwave are all tools used in small parameters but the fringe cases is what separates them from others of their kind.
Ask any tradesman that does anything physical or with their hands about tools and they'll say "buy once cry once" essentially saying "buy for the fringe case"
Insurance is fringe case all around.
Travel and getting the car prepared for a 400 mile non-stop drive from "empty" in 15 minutes on the way out of town is a fringe case.
You are completely delusional if you think the case of the average is what motivates people, and what makes a tool useful.
So no, you are not right. You are just to narrow minded to think about the non-asbergers point of view when you think of all the little numbers in your head.
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No waiting.
Ok come on now, let's not be disingenuous here. If you want to travel more than 100 miles there is a pretty damn long wait in there.
Yes they have significant advantages and that probably suits a lot of people but let's not pretend it isn't massively inconvenient if you want to go on a roadtrip. For my commute an EV would be great but 3-4 times a month I do want to drive more than 100 miles in a day and there isn't necessarily a charge point where I'm going. Maybe they'll get cheap enough that I can afford o
90% of time not 90% of vehicles (Score:5, Insightful)
The oil industry and fossil car industries are desperate that people not realise how convenient it is to have a charger in your garage.
For everyday around town use the home charger is fine. The problem is that it is not really 90% of vehicles that the electric car could replace but a single vehicle 90% of the time (which is still 90% of vehicles on the road at any one time). ~10% of the time we used our car for going on holiday or taking long road trips for other reasons. This, along with the incredibly high price, is what makes an electric car impractical for me. The high price will probably get fixed with time but to go on holiday with the family I need a car with a large range that can be refuelled quickly. While I would love to have an electric car with that capability for around the same price as a petrol driven one that is not something I see happening any time soon.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
The entitled are desperate to keep people from thinking about not having a garage.
Battery electrics basic assumption is that of entitlement... Everyone owns their dwelling and has access to a charger dedicate for their individual use. Just another way of saying "I got mine, so screw you"
Silicon valley is already seeing "charger rage" incidents where access to shared chargers just isn't working.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Interesting)
This is true right now because electricity use overnight is low, so the power companies charge lower rates. So if you're one of the few people with an EV, charging it overnight means you're paying discounted electricity prices. That's going to change if everyone gets an EV.
Current U.S. household electricity use is about 900 kWh per month [eia.gov]. A Nissan Leaf is rated at 30 kWh/100 miles [eia.gov]. Average vehicle miles traveled per household has been inching towards 60 miles [ornl.gov] (it dipped to 54 in 2009 - page 10). So driving those miles in EVs like the Leaf would result in about 550 kWh/mo of additional electricity consumption. Factor in charging efficiency (about 75%-80% from the numbers I've seen from Tesla and plug-in Prius owners [futurepundit.com]), and it works out to closer to 700 kWh/mo. So adding an EV to the house will nearly double it's electricity use, with all of that additional consumption falling in the overnight period.
Currently, power consumption ramps up around 8 AM and peaks around 8 PM [eia.gov]. An EV in every garage would invert that so the peak would occur overnight between 8 PM and 8 AM (certain industrial use which runs 24/7 keeps current overnight use around 67% that of day use). Consequently, electricity prices would go from being lowest overnight, to highest overnight. (This is also why the idea of using the battery in your EV to store up cheap overnight power for use during the day is never going to go anywhere.)
An EV is still cheaper to operate per mile than an ICE vehicle (because per Joule, gasoline is about 10x more expensive than coal [slashdot.org]). But instead of 70%-80% less cost per mile than an ICE, you're probably going to be in the neighborhood of 50%-60% less.
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Just goes to show the world's many stages of development. I look one direction, there's children starving in war zones. I look in the other direction, there's people charging their electric car. Me, I don't have a car, or a garage, or a street wide enough to allow parking; I'm looking forward to the nuclear powered bus.
the best way to lie to the public is to use % (Score:5, Insightful)
Let's put it an other way so that 90% doesn't look so good.
They are about 365 days a year. There is 10% time an electric car won't work for you.
So that is being 36.5 days a year (over a full month) of times your electric car will fail you.
And most people will not have the luxury to buy a second car for those extra times.
In short that 90% number is saying that electric car technology and infrastructure isn't quite there yet. But packages in a way to fool people who do not want to dig into numbers.
They still need to work on longer range faster full charging. I would love to see the day where I can choose an electric car... However the technology and infrastructure isn't there yet.
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You know you can RENT a non-EV car for that other 10% right ?
No need to buy two.
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Note that a Model S goes a *lot* further than 100 miles; I just used that number because the GP did.
I live in Iceland. But since you live in New York, here's the map [tesla.com]. The biggest gap on the road from Boston to Philadelphia is 92 miles (aka, the midpoint is 46 miles from a supercharger). I can't find a single location within 100 miles of New York City that's more than about 60 miles from a supercharger (and I'm trying to find the most out-in-the boonies, no-direct-route place I can). If we go much furthe
Better batteries almost deployed. (Score:3)
Battery swap stations. Then this all becomes reasonable, and fill actually needs.
New battery technologies, light and robust enough for automotive use, allow recharge of about 80% of capacity in a matter of minutes (presuming you have a charger that powerful).
They're also extremely efficient. (They HAVE to be or the charging rate would melt them into slag.) So they make effective regenerative braking, with most of the energy stored in the battery, practical.
I don't know if the new Tesla plant will be makin
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
Electric cars _really don't_ have "just as much maintenance". Combustion engines are relatively high maintenance gear, they have a LOT of moving parts, which all wear out and need lubricant changes. An electric car drive train is much, much simpler, which means less to maintain. There are probably dozens of electric motors in your home, but you never think about "Man, when does the DVD player next need an oil change?" because they're low maintenance.
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The maintenance for my Tesla is quite a bit lower than it was for my Prius. The motor is lubricated for 12 years. There's no belts to wear out, spark plugs, or the myriad of other mechanical parts required to keep an ICE running. Granted, there are some things, i.e. coolant pumps. Even the brakes last a lot longer due to regenerative braking. The biggest problem I have had with my car is tires, but that is more due to the fact that I tend to accelerate hard. I don't bother charging at public spots since the
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Informative)
No - the headline is misstating the paper.
According to the abstract at Nature it is 90% of "vehicle days". 90% of vehicles would be a much stronger result. Because it is vehicle-days you cannot assume how they are distributed across the owners of vehicles. There is a post much higher up that calls it right: "electric cars would fail their owners 10% of the time: 36.5 days a year".
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But what if you live in NYC in an apartment, where you have to fight for a parking place. Such a charging option is not available. ... you know? Like charging your phone from your laptop!
Come on, be creative!
Just plug your car into the next cars battery
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OMG!
I didn't charge the car because aunt Matilda was here all last week and she talks so much I forgot to plug it in and I even tripped over the charge cord which is another danger of electricity and then when I got home I accidentally put both hands in the meat grinder and needed to go to the hospital but I couldn't dial the phone so I went out to my car and it was plugged in but since both arms were bloody stumps I couldn't unplug it but fortunately my neighborhood watch group "Make America White Again" c
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I spend less of my time charging my EV than you spend filling your car's gas tank.
Why are you pretending to be so dumb that you can't understand the point he's just made? Really, why? Your attempt at deflection is laughable. So, thanks for the entertainment, anyway.
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How often do you arrive home with an empty tank? Well, I don't arrive home with almost no charge.
Yes, an EV does take a little more planning, but in an emergency, I can get an almost full charge in 30 minutes. If I get caught out like this a few times a year, I still spend less time waiting for my car to charge than you spend filling your car with gas.
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I spend less of my time charging my EV than you spend filling your car's gas tank.
I arrive home, plug in and leave it. I don't have to stand by the car waiting for it to fill. In the morning, I unplug it. A few seconds to plug in and another few seconds to unplug. How long do you spend standing by your car at the gas station?
Why is this moderated as "off-topic". It is perfectly on topic. When you have charging installed at home and/or at work, you spend almost no time "fuelling" your car, in that the only things you have to do is do plug the car in, and unplug it when you leave. Your car would have been parked in any case. Thus for those of us who can install a dryer plug and a charger in our garage, or who can find charging at work, electric cars are in fact more convenient for daily commuting than gasoline cars.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:4, Insightful)
> I spend less of my time charging my EV than you spend filling your car's gas tank.
I am not sure about that, it takes me 3 minutes to fill my truck with 30 gallons about once a month, gets me about 600 miles between fills.
90 seconds / 20 driving days equals about 4.5 seconds per day. I fill up at 5 am in the morning, it is truly stop swipe fill, done. It also lines up with the time and rate I need to clean bugs off my windshield.
I would estimate it takes you double that time, 4 seconds to plug in, 4 to unplug, and also having to have a dedicated parking location, so that would likely more than make up for the 10 minute oil change every 6 months.
Since significant time of the year, I park on the street, it would take me about as much time to run a cord out to the car and back every day as a full fill up.
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I would be willing to bet that when you count the time it takes you to drive to a gas station (even if it on your route, it still takes some time to get in an out of the station), possibly wait for a free pump, swipe your credit card to start the pump, remove the gas cap and insert the filler handle, wait for it to fill, remove the filler handle, close out the credit card transaction and start up again, yo
Re: Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Funny)
1. We can use my wife's car.
Given that this is /., that isn't going to be an option for about 90% of the people here...
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Insightful)
I arrive home, plug in and leave it.
How nice for you. However you're totally ignoring the original commetors' point: Not everyone lives in a HOUSE, many people live in apartments or other places where it becomes very very problematic to have to plug in a vehicle to charge it overnight. No apartments I ever used to live in would tolerate people running extension cords out their back windows every day, and that's assuming you could even park that close. No way the vast majority of property owners would ante up for EV charging stations, and in a large apartment complex there would have to be dozens of them to serve everyone.
The real problem boils down to infrastructure. We've had a hundred years to build up the infrastructure to refuel IC engine vehicles pretty much anywhere. EV charging stations are few and far between and even high-voltage high-current types like Tesla uses aren't as fast as dumping gasoline into your tank. It will take decades to build up the infrastructure to serve mass amounts of electric vehicles, and it still won't be anywhere near as fast as refilling a liquid fuel tank. It'll take decades more to progress battery technology to the point where it's as fast and convenient to recharge as it is right now to dump 10 or 12 gallons of fuel into a tank. That's assuming the idea ever catches on enough that a large enough fraction of the population moves to electric vehicles to force the changeover. Face it, we've got a long, long ways to go yet before electric vehicle acceptance is not only popular, but practical.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:5, Funny)
People are already using electric cars.
No they're not. I can't hook my semi trailer up to any car electric or otherwise and then drive coast-to-coast without a break to refuel let alone pee. In fact come to think of it, I doubt anyone really uses cars anyway since you just can't haul cargo like you can with an 18 wheeler.
Re:Driving yes, but charging? (Score:4, Interesting)
People are already using electric cars.
Not very many, the number is a rounding error...
People also own their own airplanes and helicopters, yet that doesn't mean those are going to take off as everyone's means of travel either...
EVs have a long way to go...
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True, but it only takes 5 minutes to fill up your car with gasoline.
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Bloody oath. I live in a city with urban sprawl where it takes 140 minutes by public transport to visit my brother (a 45 minute car journey) in 'Greater' Melbourne.
I would happily trade a life in the 'burbs for an apartment in a metropolis with a world class subway. Madrid springs to mind, if only it had a coastline...
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Where I live, lots of people charge at work, often free.
"free" * (Score:2)
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Well, it's only a problem if the way we get to 90% electric cars is by waving a magic wand and converting all our ICE cars instantaneously. Assuming the change is incremental over several decades I assume that the standards for "normal" infrastructure associated with things like apartment buildings and parking garages will change.
I brought Internet into an organization back in the days you had to prove you were an educational, government or military organization to do it. Back in those days the idea of br
But What About the Other 10% ???? (Score:2)
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When you have an issue like that a free market can step in and provide a solution.
Why not a surplus of cheap uber type truck rentals? Why do you even need a vehicle that can carry a lot of stuff? Go to the store with a barcode scanner, walk around, pick out everything you need. (Lumber and all) and schedule it for deliver. No lifting. No moving it multiple times (shelf -> cart -> car -> house).
Same for minivans. Have soccer practice? Have the self driving van drop itself off at your house (So that
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I have a sneaking suspicion that the "freemarket" already has a solution. People want the freedom to do what they want, when they want, and how they want. People own the cars they want now.
Uber isn't going to have Uber Trucks in small rural towns. They especially aren't going to have it if you live on a ranch far from a small rural town. Uber Trucks won't be happy if you dump a bunch of bricks in the back. I for one am not entirely excited about the idea of having to find a special vehicle every time m
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If you're going to buy a Ford F-450 for the once every few years you need lumber and sheets of plywood at your house, it would be cheaper just to have it delivered.
Lumber yards do deliver, you know.
Re: But What About the Other 10% ???? (Score:3)
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This ^^
Where I live, there are too many cars for the available spaces. I sometimes have to park a block or two away if I get home late. Even if you go with "public charging" spots that you just pay, what happens when their full? "Sorry boss I can't come in today, my car is still charging..." What happens when some kids go through and unplug everyone's car?
While I think electric is great, and today can work for a lot of suburban, semi urban areas. They are a LOT of logistics that haven't been worked out for
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Awesome (Score:2)
as soon as they send me a cheque for $36K I'll get one asap, until then I'll keep driving my 2011 Yaris, 2015 Journey, 1984 D150 and a lifted 1988 Bronco.
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I'd say go to your Chevy dealer and check out the Spark EV, but judging by your selection of vehicles, you don't live in a state that offers them. The lease deals are killer.
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A Nissan Leaf has a list price of less than $30k. Nissan had (probably still has) a $4k incentive program and the Federal Government will give you $7.5k. There may be state incentives also. So your out of pocket cost is only about $20k or less, depending on the state incentives.
Depending on your electricity cost, you may spend a lot less on energy for a Leaf than your Yaris.
And the Lea
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Depends on where you are. in ontario here, the cost of a basic nissan leaf starts at $32k. then there is delivery and taxes on top of that. (taxes would ad 13% onto that price). Then there is the insurance. A chev cruz was going to cost me over $2k a year in insurance. whereas a 2010 dodge charger hemi cost me less than 1000 a year, and gets as good mileage as my minivan. that thousand plus a year pays for a lot of gas. and it is a hell of a lot more fun to drive than a cruz.
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The Nissan Leaf is generally comparable to a typical 4-door compact sedan... which as an ICE vehicle you can buy brand new for half the price of what the Leaf *starts* at.
Compact sedans are pretty fuel efficient, probably running at less than a thousand dollars in gas in an entire year. If you are running more, than you are probably doing extensive travelling that an electric vehicle would be inadequate for anyways.
So, with the difference in price between a Leaf and a typical compact sedan being on t
Perhaps (Score:2)
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Right I'm the problem for not spending $30K + on an electric vehicle while my Yaris cost me $15K and 4 year later its paid for... What incentive would I have to get a EV if my 6 year old Yaris fails me which believe it or not all I've had to do so far is change the brakes and tires twice and oil on regular basis in 180K KM.
Most people would be hard press to get rid off an econobox which is probably paid for and run forever and go into more debt for an EV.
I'd love to have an EV but its not enough incentive f
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He's not part of the problem. He drives econo boxes.
I'm the problem, 400+ ponies, race tuned daily driver, cats safely stored in the garage.
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Sure, good power on your toys, but boring daily driver.
My 4x4 is bone stock drivetrain too, just no need for power (beyond the big V8) in the hills.
351s with roller cams are pretty easy to find in the junkyards today. I'm pretty much maxed out on the 302, anything more and the reliability goes to shit. But 400 hp is a reasonably good power level, still very driveable, not like it's trying to kill me.
Low cost? (Score:2)
Great, send me the electric vehicle that replaces my '98 Ford Escort at trade in value. And it better not be a used golf cart.
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Not with a battery worth a damn.
Re:Low cost? (Score:4, Insightful)
Your 98 Ford Escort gets about 20mpg. If you switched to a modern Ford Focus 2016, it would get 30+ mpg.
I don't know about his 98 Escort, but my 93 Escort gets 35-36 mph on the highway and (the much more common scenario) 30 mpg when I'm just driving it a few miles a day from my house to the train station. And over the past decade I've averaged about one big (~ $1000) maintenance bill every couple years.
If you want to use safety as a selling point, you'll have a better argument - but not gas mileage and not overall cost.
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I get about 33 MPG with my '98, so apparently switching to a modern car would get me worse MPG than I already get? Also, I only drive about 5000 miles a year so it's going to take a while to save much even if there were an MPG advantage.
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It has as much power and speed as I need. Whereas I don't think golf carts can make it onto the freeway, which becomes a problem. I'd be more than happy to consider a little one seater miniature electric car if I could get it for a couple thousand and it'd handle freeway speeds and got at least 60 miles to a charge, but those aren't on sale.
No more reason to subsidize EV then. (Score:2)
By working out formulas to integrate the different sets of information and thereby track one-second-resolution drive cycles, the MIT researchers were able to demonstrate that the daily energy requirements of some 90 percent of personal cars on the road in the U.S. could be met by today's EVs, with their current ranges, at an overall cost to their owners -- including both purchase and operating costs -- that would be no greater than that of conventional internal-combustion vehicles.
Almost there, but not quite. (Score:3)
I would love to switch to an electric vehicle, but the reality is that after moving into the city, I might go weeks at a time without touching my car. Also, I tend to make 8 or 10 long-haul trips a year, which wouldn't be feasible in even the best electric vehicles. Yes, I could rent a vehicle for those trips, but then in my situation, I'm renting the vehicle just to drive 500km, park it for a week, then drive the 500km home.
If I wound up in a family situation where we became a two car family, absolutely, an electric vehicle would make sense for one of them. On the other hand, my car (a 10 year old Jetta TDI) is still extremely reliable, and very cheap to operate, and still one of the more efficient vehicles on the road.
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> long-haul trips a year, which wouldn't be feasible in even the best electric vehicles.
While on a long haul trip this year I came up with a plan (admittedly stupid one) for that. It was to put a loop on a extending pole on the front of an electric car. I would get it to catch on a semi bumper, then run the car in charging mode having the semi pull me, borrow just 50 hp or so. The loop would have a magnetic release, and the car would have autonomy to increase safety.
Heck with a phone app, willing part
Yeah not around here. (Score:2)
When they can get the batteries to last properly in Ontario Winter temperatures, and go further than 100km on a charge il consider one. until then i dont plan on having to make a overnight stay in the closest city before heading home the next day just so i can go shop at costco.
sorry, won't byte (Score:2)
I grew up in the mid west, where winter temperatures frequently spend weeks in the below zero range - battery efficiency simply doesn't work well enough there... so cross off 1/3 of the country..
Now I live in the PNW (pacific northwest, for you non-tree huggers) , I commute about 15 miles to work, and yes and EV would suit my commute need - BUT, I pull a camper for vacations and hunting,
Supply and storage (Score:2)
The power grid is very lightly used at night. That's the sane time to charge most vehicles, and to buffer energy for the following day. There's no power grid problem in the sense of "not enough power." It's a logistics issue.
Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)
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I grew up in the mid west, where winter temperatures frequently spend weeks in the below zero range - battery efficiency simply doesn't work well enough there... so cross off 1/3 of the country..
WHOA? I live in the mid west currently, and teslas are all over the place. They work just fine in the winter (albeit with slightly less range), but what's going from 320 mile range to 250 mile range when you are only drive ~40 miles?
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id like to see where you get the information that electrics are popular up here in canada. they may be in the city, anywhere else, not a damn chance would anyone be caught with one. and even on my excursions into the big smoke that is toronto i rarely see electric vehicles. Our winters kill electric vehicles. the cold reduces the range of these cars by close to half (cold effecting the battery, and the electric heater so you dont freeze)
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That's nice. (Score:2, Insightful)
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Once they can fit in 90% of drivers' wallets they'll be way too tiny to be useful.
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Re: That's nice. (Score:4)
Tesla M 3 start at the average price of a sold car in America
No. The average price of a car sold in America is about $22,000, whereas the Tesla Model 3 starts at $35,000.
The average new car purchase costs $33,560 [usatoday.com]. However [ycharts.com], 69% of cars sold are used [about.com] with an average price of $16,800 [usatoday.com], because most people can't really afford to buy new. Furthermore, those numbers are probably the arithmetic mean, whereas the geometric mean (surely a lower number) would probably be more useful.
Anecdotally, the geometric mean price of a car purchase among my own social circles (which encompass everything from the intermittently homeless up to the beginning of the upper class) is definitely MUCH less than $35,000, with a strong majority of the vehicles purchased being used. Anyone who thinks a $35,000 car is affordable to the average American adult is out-of-touch with the true economic condition of the general population.
Some used 2017 Teslas might reach affordability for regular people in five years or so - or they might not; nobody knows for sure what the maintenance requirements and depreciation rate for the Model 3 will be like, yet.
Get ready (Score:2)
Spin up those coal fired generating plants.
Elon Knows (Score:2, Interesting)
2013 Leaf Owner here (Score:3)
- The lack of engine noise definitely reduced my daily commute stress.
- Way better USABLE acceleration means I can easily change lanes anytime (I am sure a race car driver in a comparably priced ICE standard transmission could beat me, but most people are not race car drivers. An ICE car driven at the same routine acceleration would not last very long, runs the risk of going out of control due to the inconsistent torque, and is embarrassingly loud at pitiful speeds. When we occasionally rent an ICE vehicle, I am blown away by how crazily loud a little punch on the pedal is, resulting in an unsatisfactory driving experience in comparison. Having an EV has killed the joy of driving an ICE for me. .
- Guiltless endless A/C when parked.
- For my routine driving, I never have to worry about "stopping to fill up" because I am doing that every night at home.
- Even at these gas prices, electricity + battery is cheaper.
Some cons:
- The endless times I get to hear "resale value sucks for EVs" because an entire industry is unable to factor the $7,500 tax credit new purchases get. .
- Range. . . though Austin, TX has put in a network of supercharges, so not really the case for me anymore. Range never comes up during my usual driving routine, though.
for clean air clean up insurance law (Score:2)
I have a gasoline car. Sure, 90% of what I do could be done with an electric can. But I still need a gas car. An no, if you think I'm going to go out and rent a car when I do need a gasoline car then you're full of it. I'm not going to own a gasoline and an electric car for one simple reason, the insurance industry is running a huge scam in getting the state legislatures to force us to have liability insurance on each vehicle we own even if we can't be driving them all at once.
If you have a teenage driver
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Liability insurance is on cars because in some instances the owner can say "It was stolen/borrowed/rented - not my fault."
Most insurance companies offer a discount for more cars than drivers. Shop around.
Nonetheless, legally mandated insurance is a violation of the principle "innocent until proven guilty", and should be ended immefiately.
90% of cars on road != 90% of cars owned (Score:2)
I think this study fails to see people as people instead of only in aggregate. If an electric only met my needs 90% of the time, I still need a different vehicle for 1/10 trips - and so would almost everyone else. That's not the same thing as 90% of people not needing internal combustion - and the study even mentioned a need for car sharing. And that is not a small percentage, when you consider the overhead of coordinating a car share.
So yes, the road could be mostly barren of internal combustion if ever
Probably a flawed analysis (Score:5, Interesting)
It sounds like they analyzed in terms of vehicle-days, not in terms of owned vehicles. The press "helpfully" converted this into "90% of vehicles" which is inaccurate. Yes, probably 90% of vehicles driven on any given day could be replaced by current EV ranges. But I'd guess probably 95% of vehicles can't be replaced by current EV ranges. See, the vast majority of cars are driven short distances nearly all days. But a few times a year they're called on to drive 200-500 miles in a day, for things like that drive to Grandma's for Thanksgiving, weekend trip to Vegas, etc.
If you applied the same type of analysis to car safety, you'd find that 99.99% of vehicle-days, seat belts don't protect you. And therefore it'd be ok to get rid of seat belts in cars.
The flip side of this is that vehicle-days is a valid metric if you can convince people to rent an ICE car for their few trips a year which exceed an EV's range. People erroneously think they've paid a lump sum for the car when they bought it, so driving it for that one long trip is "free" while they have to pay "extra" money if they rent a car. I've been trying for years to convince people that the cost of a car (as well as most other things) is a rate, not an amount. The cost of fuel, maintenance, and depreciation to operate a car is usually in the ballpark of 40-50 cents/mile (insurance drops out since it's mostly based on time).
So driving 500 miles (round trip) to Grandma's for Thanksgiving actually costs you about $200-$250 of expenses and depreciation. Renting an ICE car for those few long trips is very competitive. And you can use your EV as for the other 95% of days.
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It's not just range. Rentals are common for special purpose. Need to tow a trailer or go camping on a sand island? People wouldn't think twice about a rental because often these rare events make it cheaper to have an affordable care and rent a large SUV or Utility vehicle instead.
But talk about range and suddenly everyone losses their minds, literally, and are unable to think or apply math.
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No they can't, I'm special (Score:5, Funny)
Electric cars won't ever work because I drive 3,000 miles each way to work every day across all the peaks of the Himalayas hauling seven shipping containers filled with concrete. And if an electric car can't do that without me having to stop along the way, it's a useless piece of shit that nobody can ever use for anything. /UsualElectricCarNaysayers
Re:90% of trips != 90% of drivers (Score:5, Interesting)
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Rentals for long trips are great.
Something breaks far from home? Not my problem. Idiot driver or child damages something? Bought the extra insurance.
I just wish they had more manual diesel vehicles like they do in Europe.
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Right, you will rent a car three times a year for those times where an electric car does not have enough range. I would imagine the same for much of the US. I also imagine that those three times a year land on or about Easter, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. If what you propose catches on then enjoy being able to rent a car while you can because you might find yourself wanting to rent a car and none will be available.
This just tells me that there is a sort of saturation point for electric vehicles and it's
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That's actually really easy to solve, at least in principle. It involves a gasoline-powered generator with a moderately large gas tank on a small, rolling trailer that hooks over your car's trunk or to a trailer hitch or whatever. In an ideal world, if every car company took electric cars seriously, you'd be able to rent a standard generator
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Where I visited in Europe everyone seemed to have a trailer hitch, but no one had trailers. Every gas station had a few in the out lot for rent. If you had 90% of your driving covered there's no reason there couldn't be a service to step in for the other 10%. Be it Uber or a car rental service.
Maybe go in with 5 of your EV neighbors and get a time share vehicle.
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I just sent a set of Trucknutz to Germany with my cousin, for a coworker of his girlfriends.
They are hanging from a set of those tiny trailer hitches common on eurocars.
I would have broken the bread and gotten the set that hooks to the blinkers, but I suspect he won't leave them on for long.
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Fuel cells are always a "few years" away, they've been that way for something like three decades now. Mr. Lovins is certainly a charismatic and convincing lecturer. I've seen him speak on YouTube and he's quite the salesman. After seeing other people, just as qualified as Mr. Lovins, counter what he's said I now see just how full of BS he is.