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First SpaceX Missions To Mars: 'Dangerous and Probably People Will Die' (arstechnica.com) 412

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: As we get close to the end of September, when Elon Musk has promised to lay bare his plans for colonizing Mars at an international space conference, it seems like the ambitious founder of SpaceX can hardly contain his excitement. In an interview with The Washington Post, Musk gushed, "I'm so tempted to talk more about the details of it. But I have to restrain myself." SpaceX fandom has speculated for years about details of Musk's ideas, which include the Mars Colonial Transporter concept. The Transporter likely consists of a large first stage rocket and an upper stage spacecraft meant to deliver hundreds of people to the surface of Mars during the late 2020s and 2030s. Unlike NASA, which relies on public money and is therefore risk averse when it comes to "loss of crew" requirements for human missions into space, SpaceX appears to be willing to take some risks with the unprecedented exploration to Mars. Those first explorers would understand the perils, just as the pioneers who explored the New World or the poles of Earth did. "Hopefully there's enough people who are like that who are willing to go build the foundation, at great risk, for a Martian city," Musk told Washington Post. "It's dangerous and probably people will die -- and they'll know that." Eventually it will be safe to go to Mars, Musk said, and living there will be comfortable. But this is many years into the future, he acknowledged.
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First SpaceX Missions To Mars: 'Dangerous and Probably People Will Die'

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  • I would ... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:13PM (#52311849)

    Go.
    At the very least, death or not, it would be interesting. Earth is getting boring.

    • by pellik ( 193063 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:19PM (#52311877)
      You could be the first to post there, too.
    • Go.
      At the very least, death or not, it would be interesting. Earth is getting boring.

      There was another program that had that wrapped up all nice and neat, included fast food and hookers on the moon, building larger craft in 1/3 earth gravity, He3 used as a much better fuel. But they screwed it all up in '63 over a quick theft of 4-6 million in north Tahoe on a repeat crime originally involving an underground river plug beneath Virginia City, NV and a pretty screwed up definition of Freemason. If it ever happens it will be the Russky's that do it, we have to buy our heavy lift rockets from

  • "Probably"? (Score:4, Informative)

    by mark-t ( 151149 ) <markt.nerdflat@com> on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:21PM (#52311893) Journal

    Nice understatement there fella.

    This isn't like the moon... which is at least theoretically close enough that it is at least technologically feasible to orchestrate a rescue mission to bring people home if things go awry, if such provisions are at least planned for... certainly getting people back to earth safely (or sending more supples up) before they starve to death if food supplies were suddenly lost, for example. Mars is, to put it quite bluntly, a fucking ONE WAY TRIP.

    Until we have the technology to get to mars in a matter of only a few days or less, I predict that every manned mission to mars that we attempt will have a 100% fatality rate. It is suicide to go there... plain and simple.

    • by TheGratefulNet ( 143330 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:25PM (#52311915)

      I want to live long enough to see us do fly-bys over the surface of mars, scaring the locals and then having a radio show written about us.

      once that happens, I can die a happy man.

      • by mark-t ( 151149 )

        So do I, to be perfectly honest.

        But I can plainly see that where we are now, technologically.... we are just not there yet. Those considering this need to completely rethink propulsion and come up with a plan for getting people not only there, but home.... safely and expediently, in time scales measured in hours or a few days at most... not weeks, and certainly not months. Otherwise, any rocket we send them up in may as well be their tomb.

        • Those considering this need to completely rethink propulsion and come up with a plan for getting people not only there, but home.... safely and expediently, in time scales measured in hours or a few days at most... not weeks, and certainly not months. Otherwise, any rocket we send them up in may as well be their tomb.

          Why? Why do you think that colonists want to return to place they left? And why do you think that Earth is necessarily a better tomb for every single person than Mars would be?

    • by oic0 ( 1864384 )
      You are going to die anyway. Wouldn't it be nice to be remembered in a few hundred years instead of fading away into nothingness? Some people think so, and they are more than willing to die trying to get to mars.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        People will remember Musk and the leader of the expedition, that's about it.

        Whom do you remember from the colonization of America? Who laid the first road? Who built the first house?

      • You still fade away into nothingness. Lots of folks died exploring and colonizing the Americas. Those generally aren't the ones remembered by history.
      • Google will remember you. A lot of people around here seem to worry a lot about that too.
        • Google isn't so interesting in remembering dead people. There's little money in their data. Despite repeated tries, it remains really, really hard to sell something to decomposing corpses that aren't still able to switch TV channels and reach into the chips bag.

    • This isn't like the moon... which is at least theoretically close enough that it is at least technologically feasible to orchestrate a rescue mission to bring people home if things go awry

      No, actually, it isn't.

      I read a little bit of obscure history awhile ago. While in the Apollo 11 LEM, one of astronauts accidentally broke the switch they would use to turn on the ascent engine. Fortunately, Buzz was able to cram a pen in there and launch off of the Moon. But Nixon already had his speech prepared--the two astronauts would have died on the Moon and there wasn't a damn thing NASA could have done for them.

      • by mark-t ( 151149 )

        I did explicitly say give the caveat that a second mission would have to be prepared for. My point is that it is technologically possible to implement.

        If something happened on mars, it wouldn't matter how prepared we were here, we wouldn't be able to get any assistance to them remotely expediently enough.

    • by dbIII ( 701233 )

      Until we have the technology to get to mars in a matter of only a few days or less

      Incredibly unlikely for a long list of reasons, but what is likely given time is having several things going there per year. You need food next week? Here's a shipment sent last year that's arriving next week.

      NASA, unlike Musk PR (or whatever is really happening), is doing things the right way by carefully building the pieces of the puzzle over time - eg. experiments growing food at the south pole and all the hundreds of li

    • by Imrik ( 148191 )

      Probably true, but if that manned mission lasts a couple decades or more, I wouldn't really call it suicide, more of a permanent change of address. (not that I would expect early missions to actually be that successful)

    • by khallow ( 566160 )

      Until we have the technology to get to mars in a matter of only a few days or less, I predict that every manned mission to mars that we attempt will have a 100% fatality rate. It is suicide to go there... plain and simple.

      Or we can simply bring more stuff. We already have demonstrated that we can live in space for months without resupply.

  • Radiation (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Bohnanza ( 523456 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:25PM (#52311917)
    Has Musk yet explained how he plans to keep them all from dying of radiation overdose?
    • I guess: on mars, build your home below ground. when travelling to mars (and/or back): hope that there is no storm coming your way :)

    • Only the people near the walls of the ship will be badly exposed - those nearer the interior will be much better shielded.

    • Easy. They die of something else.

      Crash landing into the planet. Vacuum leak. Psychotic crew members. Any number of fatal problems might get you before the radiation does.

    • He hasn't explained how he will avoid radiation overdoses. Or how he'll do what NASA doesn't know how to do (land such a large vehicle). Or how the colony's ongoing costs will be paid for. Or... well, he hasn't explained much of anything really.

      Not that such lack of explanations has prevented the fanboys from declaring the mission a success in advance.

      • Or how he'll do what NASA doesn't know how to do (land such a large vehicle).

        The Falcon 9's first stage weight is estimated to be about 25 tons when empty [spaceflight101.com]. That's the stage that returns to Earth (or sea) and lands.

        The space shuttle weighed about 82.5 tons when empty. Mars' gravity is about 38% that of Earths. 82.5 tons * 38% = weight equivalent to about 31 tons. So aside from inertia, the practice Space X has been getting landing the Falcon 9 translates almost exactly into landing a space shuttle-si

      • You dont land the heavy transporter. That is silly.

        The transport does transfer orbit maneouvers between mars and earth. It never enters atmosphere, and ideally, would never have experienced being at the bottom of a steep gravity well. If you dont mind long schedules, it could theoretically fall between lagranian points for very little fuel.

        What it has:
        Thick rad shielding (take your pick, but water is ideal.)
        Heavy cargo capacity
        Nuclear power
        Possibly small fabrication suite
        Big ass engines
        simulated gravity cre

    • Re:Radiation (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Robotbeat ( 461248 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @10:53PM (#52312649) Journal

      It's almost impossible to die of space radiation overdose. The galactic cosmic rays can't kill you via a radiation overdose, they're dose rate is much, MUCH too low.

      The only thing with a high enough dose rate is solar particle event. And, in fact, there are very few that are strong enough to kill you (but note, there are winter or thunderstorms that can easily kill you if you're unprotected on Earth). One has occurred, however, in August of 1972, with a dose of about 1 Sievert, but it'd only be that high if your only shielding was a thin space suit ( here's a source for that [bioedonline.org]). If you were inside a capsule or on the surface of Mars (shielded by the yes-still-significant Martian atmosphere), you'd be totally fine. Even 1 Sv not really enough to kill you. You need about 2 Sv to really be in danger of immediate radiation overdose and death. But you could vomit in your spacesuit and suffocate. However, these events are not instantaneous, you'd have a warning and the events occur over a period of an hour or several hours, so you have enough time to get inside or behind a rock or something.

      No, it's nearly impossible to die from acute natural radiation overdose in space.

      You'll survive the trip. The worry is about an increase in occurrence of cancer when you get back. However, in any case, the risk of cancer from living in space is less than being a smoker. Although, given the huge deal we make about the space radiation issue, you wouldn't know it. You'd think you'd die instantly or something, which just isn't true.

      As far as how to deal with it, well Mars' surface has a much lower radiation dose from GCRs and especially solar flares. You're half shielded by the planet itself and secondarily by an average of around 40 grams per square centimeter of CO2 mass, maybe more at lower altitudes. Additionally, just massive amounts of rock or dirt work great. And water is more effective per unit mass.

      On the way to Mars, your best bet is to shorten the trip to 90-100 days as Musk suggests, and perhaps use your supplies (water, food, maybe propellant) to shield you from solar particle events. That'd reduce your transit dose to a manageable amount. And you can also use drugs like Amifostine to avoid some of the radiation effects, especially the effects of acute radiation (we're unsure if Amifostine helps for chronic radiation). But once on the surface of Mars, it's possible to reduce the dosage to arbitrarily low levels.

      But again, these are long-term health effects, perhaps like you'd see in any kind of hazardous environment. But you'll be able to perform the mission just fine.

  • NASA is risk averse? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by darthsilun ( 3993753 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @08:29PM (#52311927)
    And Musk/SpaceX is not? Just wait until the relatives of those who die – en route or on Mars – lawyer up?
    • In what jurisdiction would they sue? The Martian Emperor does not recognize the authority of Terran courts.
    • by SJ ( 13711 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @09:22PM (#52312249)

      Don't think that those people selected to go will have to sign a few documents and undergo a few mental evaluations to make sure they really understand that they will most likely die on the mission?

      I would imagine that the direct relatives of the crew will have to sign something similar for the member to be eligible.

      • Don't think that those people selected to go will have to sign a few documents and undergo a few mental evaluations to make sure they really understand that they will most likely die on the mission?

        That's not the problem - it's whether or not those documents and processes will stand the scrutiny of a court of law. It's whether or not they will withstand the scrutiny of whoever ends up granting the launch license. (Which is something of a grey area right now, the current process isn't set up to handle 'n

  • Never really understood the need for these types of adventures, could someone explain why traveling to a barren rock is so thrilling! No trolling, and I understand the importance to science but even the quest for knowledge has it's limits.
    • Ultimately, the answer is simply this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com] Everything else is just a justification, true ones of course, but never the primary reason.

      Some people get it, some people don't. I happen to be one of the people who do, and that's okay. It sounds like you happen to be one of the people who don't, and that's okay too.

    • by swb ( 14022 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @09:46PM (#52312357)

      I was just reading a book on the Vikings this afternoon and happened to read the chapters on the settlement of Iceland and Greenland and thinking about space exploration.

      Compared to even Norway, Iceland was a lot like Mars. Totally hostile climate, vast stretches of it totally unsuitable for human habitation. Extremely long voyage to get there in an environment -- the North Sea -- that's sure death if anything goes wrong.

      Many died trying anyway, and not just all at once. It took several attempts by people who knew that previous ones had failed, fatally, to establish permanent settlements. And the ones that did fail failed for the same reasons Mars is risky -- we bring the wrong stuff and not enough of the right stuff, the climate is hostile, it's far away so you can't easily go back, and sometimes your fellow colonists turn on you and you slaughter each other *and then* die of starvation.

      In many ways, at least as far as we know, the one thing we don't have to worry about on Mars is having to fight our way through hostile natives. Not only did previous migrants face long voyages to uncertain destinations, there was also the likelihood they would have to go to war with whoever they ran into -- hey, let's embark on a trip that's likely fatal simply in the conveyance we have available, to a place we might not have the knowledge or stuff to survive in, and let's do it to steal stuff from people who will fight us to the death to stop us.

      Yet humans have been doing it for millennia, despite the risks and the repeated failures. It's part of what makes us human. If that wasn't part of our humanity, we'd still be eating mangoes and dipping sticks into anthills on the edge of the forest and the savanna.

      • a lot like Mars

        Not remotely close. In the worst of conditions in Iceland, I could walk around for minutes totally naked in the worst conditions, go back inside, dink some hot cocoa and be ready to do it again in a few hours. Mars, you'll be unconscious in 12 seconds if you space suit springs a leak and dead in 4 minutes. Iceland wait a few hours until the storm goes away, put on a heavy coat and spend a day out ice fishing. Mars, pour some hot water onto you freeze dried lasagna while looking out the window.

  • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @09:05PM (#52312149)

    Can we please send the members of congress on the first flight?! I mean come on, what's the worse that could happen?... and please include details. ;)

  • If they go like this, they are doomed.8

  • What does public money have to do with being risk adverse for loss of life? We're risk adverse because NASA decided to ram down everyone's throat that they were so good people wouldn't lose their life. NASA is the problem, not the public. Look at how many people lose their life every year climbing Mt Everest. NASA is underfunded for their current plans because they believe loss of life is not acceptable, not the public. We all see people die all over the place.
    • by unimacs ( 597299 )
      When you're spending billions of the public's money on a highly visible program, failure puts continued funding in jeopardy. Failure in this case would be loss of life. I think the public can tolerate failure if it follows initial success and there is reason to believe that further attempts would also be successful.

      Getting congress to agree to spend any significant money on an actual Mars program is a long shot anyway. If it weren't for fear of the Soviets gaining supremacy in space, there probably would
  • by zedaroca ( 3630525 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @09:37PM (#52312313)

    Then you can send people to probable death so they can build the foundation for realizing your safe and comfortable dreams.

  • Can we nominate people to be on the mission? Me? No thanks. But I've got a niece that is a complete waste of oxygen who would be perfect for this.
  • Worked for Shackleton: http://blogs.smithsonianmag.co... [smithsonianmag.com]
  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday June 13, 2016 @10:21PM (#52312515) Journal

    ....if you started with something like Biosphere 2.

    We can't manage a self-sustaining environment that doesn't require CONSTANT maintenance on Earth. To suggest that we'll somehow 'muddle through' doing it 100 million miles away is folly.

    "Some people will die" sure, that hasn't caused humans to flinch from trying hard things. And yes, doing hard things costs lives in many cases.

    But it's truly a shitty, sociopathic narcissist that is willing to throw away lives to no good end.

  • Good.... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by beheaderaswp ( 549877 ) * on Monday June 13, 2016 @10:35PM (#52312561)

    Finally someone is going to push us off this rock.

    We stopped space exploration in the 1970s and never really returned. It's about time to start doing amazing things again.

    Yes- people are going to die. And those who take the risk will understand the possible sacrifice for pushing our species forward.

    Thank you in advance.

    • We stopped space exploration in the 1970s

      No, we stopped manned space exploration, when we realised a probe could do so much more for far less cost and risk. The Apollo program existed purely for national propaganda.

  • by ytene ( 4376651 ) on Tuesday June 14, 2016 @02:13AM (#52313255)
    Musk has said that mankind's long term future lies in colonizing the solar system. Setting up a doomed-to-fail Mars experiment is a good way to discourage people to do that : he's too smart for that.

    Expect a first phase consisting of several supply rockets with prefabs, equipment and tools. Expect a degree of heavy duty robotics to help with fabrication. Expect a *lot* of solar panels, plus of course Tesla battery packs... Most of this SpaceX could do today, with the exception maybe the heavy robotics that might be needed. Maybe we could use Waldo's instead.

    The real challenge, as you point out, will be if we want to return. Ideally we would need Mars to provide the fuel for that, but we would still need to lift all the processing equipment there in order to prepare it.

    But let's be honest: so far Musk has shown a *much* better rate of learning than any nation-state space program. Who would you bet on to get there first?
  • by Bruce66423 ( 1678196 ) on Tuesday June 14, 2016 @04:41AM (#52313623)

    In one of his stories - and I can't remember which - Heinlein discussed an engineer project whose budget was complete with an estimate of the number of people who would be killed in its achievement. His project manager comments that this item isn't included in the public budget, for political reasons! This realistic assessment of the tendency for death to occur was very thought provoking; we SHOULD be honest about risk - instead terrorism is treated as disproportionately terrible, whilst antibiotic resistance, which is vastly more seriously, is labelled as potentially dangerous as terrorism to get people's attention.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/heal... [bbc.co.uk]

    Sometimes the fact that 'if voting could change things, it wouldn't be allowed', should be taken as a comfort.

If it wasn't for Newton, we wouldn't have to eat bruised apples.

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