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Math Idle

Statistical Mechanics Finds Best Places To Hide During Zombie Apocalypse 247

HughPickens.com writes Eric Mack reports at Cnet that a team of researchers at Cornell University, inspired by the book "World War Z" by Max Brooks, have used statistical-mechanics to model how an actual zombie outbreak might unfold and determined the best long-term strategy for surviving the walking dead: Head for the hills. Specifically, you should probably get familiar now with the general location of Glacier National Park so that when it all goes down, you can start heading in that direction. The project started with differential equations to model a fully connected population, then moved on to lattice-based models, and ended with a full US-scale simulation of an outbreak across the continental US. "At their heart, the simulations are akin to modeling chemical reactions taking place between different elements and, in this case, we have four states a person can be in--human," says Alex Alemi, "infected, zombie, or dead zombie--with approximately 300 million people."

Alemi believes cities would succumb to the zombie scourge quickly, but the infection rate would slow down significantly in more sparsely populated areas and could take months to reach places like the Northern Rockies and Glacier National Park. "Given the dynamics of the disease, once the zombies invade more sparsely populated areas, the whole outbreak slows down--there are fewer humans to bite, so you start creating zombies at a slower rate," Alemi says. Once you hit Montana and Idaho, you might as well keep heading farther north into the Canadian Rockies and all the way up to Alaska where data analysis shows you're most likely to survive the zombie apocalypse. The state with the lowest survival rate? — New Jersey. Unfortunately a full scale simulation of an outbreak in the United States shows that for `realistic' parameters, we are largely doomed.
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Statistical Mechanics Finds Best Places To Hide During Zombie Apocalypse

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  • by Anonymous Coward

    I am definitely not worried about a zombie invasion. They seek brains, so I'm quite safe.

  • Okay, good work. But in their model, do they make the assumption that everyone on the continent is trying to make for Glacier National Park? Because, now that they've told everyone that's what they should do, I think their model should account for that.

    • It also doesn't account for the previously established fact that any proper zombie outbreak originates in BRITAIN.

      I love USA as much as the next guy but seriously, you need to stop copy-catting every British hit.

      • Wait... I thought the first proper zombie movie was Romero's Night of the Living Dead, set in Pennsylvania.

        Besides, you have Triffids... be happy with that.

        --

        (That reminds me - you also have Quatermass; when the frig is someone over there going to resurrect that series?)

        • by fyngyrz ( 762201 )

          Wait... I thought the first proper zombie movie was Romero's Night of the Living Dead, set in Pennsylvania.

          Although they're technically vampires, I'm still going to go with Richard Matheson's "I am Legend" (1954.) Other than the fact that they weren't specifically after your brainz, Matheson's hordes of mindless, aggressive, human-seeking infected pretty much cover all the bases.

          Besides, you have Triffids... be happy with that.

          I agree. Also, they had giant wasps -- Keith Robert's "The Furies." Awesome boo

    • That was my thought. In world war Z the governor tells everyone to head to Canada without proper planning and then moves the entire Armed forces to California and defends the west coast only.

      If the government tells people to head for the hills the safest place will be a high rise tower that you empty and block the lower levels on. My personal favorite would be a 2-3 story warehouse so you can store equipment inside. Warehouses have limited stairs to make securing the upper levels easier.

      • by moeinvt ( 851793 )

        Your warehouse might work, but a high rise tower would be a terrible position. You have to figure that the power grid would go down and emergency generators would soon be out of fuel, so no elevators. How many flights of stairs do you want to climb on a regular basis while carrying food, water and fuel?

        Being in a tower with only a couple of escape routes also leaves you very vulnerable to human predators who will be looking to steal everything you have.

        If I actually lived in such a place, I'd probably try

  • seriously (Score:5, Insightful)

    by itzly ( 3699663 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:23AM (#49164227)

    Why are there so many studies about a non-existent problem ? If you want to model a disease, why not a deadly flu ?

    • Re:seriously (Score:5, Insightful)

      by halivar ( 535827 ) <bfelger@gmai l . com> on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:38AM (#49164365)

      Sounds like zombies are being used in this model as a fun generic template for easily communicable diseases. The model they created could just as easily apply to any highly virulent doomsday outbreak.

      • Re:seriously (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Bacon Bits ( 926911 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @12:59PM (#49165569)

        Yes, traditional zombie-ism is modeled like a disease that is highly contagious, highly virulent, and requires direct contact to transmit. Truthfully, the prominent characteristic of zombie-ism is that the infected are easily distinguishable.

        Imagine a highly contagious disease which was transmitted by physical contact with two symptoms: it drastically increases the infected subject's sex drive, and it reduces social inhibitions. It also has exactly one prognosis: It renders 100% the infected subjects totally and incurably sterile.

        How fast do you think that would burn through the population? What steps do you think the uninfected would take?

    • by zoobaby ( 583075 )

      It's basically modeling a pandemic. It's a less scary thing for the public to handle as zombies don't exists. It's kind of like the zombie survival classes for women. They're basically how to fight off a rapist class, but disguised to make it not seem so....rapey.

      • To build on this comment, one of the reasons it makes for an interesting modeling problem is that it sidesteps one of the limitations on actual pandemics - that the more deadly the disease the more difficulty it has spreading. In general (and there are exceptions) a deadly disease like Ebola has difficulty spreading because it kills its carriers(or immobilizes them) before they have a chance to infect as many people as possible. Meanwhile, 90% of humanity has some form of herpes, because it doesn't do all
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      It also keeps people thinking about the problem abstractly. If you cling to how diseases worked in the past, you're going to be surprised by something that works differently.

      Also... you can talk about enforcing quarantines and possibly shooting people who try and breach those conditions with more candor if you just think of them as zombies. They look like people, but they're not actually alive.

    • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

      Why are there so many studies about a non-existent problem ? If you want to model a disease, why not a deadly flu ?

      People don't pay attention to scenarios involving plain old flu. Zombies are essentially a placeholder for all types of disasters. Responses to zombie outbreaks include quarantine, crowd control, logistics, evacuations, communication with media and the population, areas blocked off due to a natural disaster(flood, earthquake, etc) modeled as "infected area", etc. For people, a zombie "bug out bag" containing water/food/medicine is good to use if you lose power or have to evacuate to a shelter during stor

      • by itzly ( 3699663 )

        People don't pay attention to scenarios involving plain old flu.

        They don't pay attention to made up zombie outbreaks either. Unless they are idiots, and then all hope is lost anyway.

        Zombies are just a generic disaster that cover pretty much every facet of any kind of disaster response

        Except that zombies are slow and dumb, easily recognizable, and need to bite their victims to spread the disease. Flu infected people are normal people flying by plane, and visiting theatres, and can infect people with a sneeze or by touching a door knob. So, the parameters are all different.

    • Because s/flu/zombie/ and s/zombie/flu/ aren't exactly processor-intensive operations.
  • by gurps_npc ( 621217 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:25AM (#49164239) Homepage
    The key thing about zombie attacks is:

    1) Zombies are stupid

    2) Humans rule the world because we are smart, not because we are strong, not because we are hard to kill, nor because we are numerous. One smart human with 30 minutes to prepare makes a spear and scares off a lion, wolf, or even a bear. Why? Because we are some sneaky, devious, son's of bitches that outwit enemies.

    3) Everyone always says your average human can defeat one zombie in pretty much every single movie or book. the zombies only are scary in large numbers.

    4) So please tell me how in the real world a single zombie can infect all the rest of us?

    It simply can NOT happen. The zombies will have surprise on their side for maybe 10 hours - and that's assuming it turns zombie close to nightfall. But even then, the surprise won't last long.

    Come the day after the zombie outbreak ends, they will all be dead. They will NEVER take an entire city. At best they might take over a small town/rural community before word gets out, and humans arm ourselves with spears, axes, shotguns, torches, etc. Yeah, a few new zombies would be created after the surprise wore off, but if 1 human kills on average 3 zombies before they themselves become a zombie, then the number of zombies would drop like a bar of lead dropped out of an airplane.

    Zombies are the stuff of nightmare only for children and sick people. To a human in the prime of his life they are an excuse to have some violent fun.

    • Pretty sure the main premise for many zombie apocalypse settings is that the zombie outbreak is caused by a disease that infects healthy, regular humans, possibly killing them, possibly not. When they die, however, they become zombies. This means that there is an unknown disease spreading, potentially worldwide, that infects people *before* we start seeing zombies. That's not a single zombie infecting the rest of us.

    • by khasim ( 1285 )

      It all depends upon the STORY being told.

      If the "infection" has already happened (you're a zombie when you die whether or not you were bitten) then that changes the math.

      Then it comes down to how fast you become a zombie once a zombie bites you. Seconds or days?

      And, finally, it comes down to whether this is going to be a book or a movie/TV show. In a book the protagonists can employ non-FPS means to deal with zombies. Otherwise you're stuck with hand-to-hand and guns.

    • As others have pointed out, these zombie studies are generally based on epidemic/pandemic disease spread. I think your zombie list is interesting, but all those things are highly dependant on how a zombie outbreak might occur, specifically on modes of transmission. Are you infected if a zombie bites you? What if some blood gets on your skin? Will that infect you? What about in a paper cut? What about if you get zombie blood in your mouth, eyes, or lungs? What happens when you set off a bomb in the middle of

    • Because the initial outbreak no one will admit that they are zombies and so won't be prepared and instead panic stupidly.

      Because most people panic first and then act.

    • Skewed in favor of an unstoppable infection. Military weapons are posited as ineffective, even WW Z (the film) made it seem like walls of any height were ineffective (they were able to just dogpile against them until they had a ramp up).

      I'd guess the story isn't any fun if at the end of chapter two it reads "...and then the AC-130 gunship decimated the field of zombies, the end."

      I also wondered if "human intelligence" could work in the form of curved passages where zombies run in, but curves in the passage

      • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

        The military weapons not being effective was part of the political "agenda" of slant of the writer. I really hated the book because it showed just such a lack of effort. For example using C-130s instead of C-17s or C5s because they burned less fuel. Ahhh No. Per ton of cargo a C-17 or C-5 blows a C-130 away. You only use a C-130 if the runway is too short or the load is too small for a larger aircraft. BTW they talked about multiple flights oc C-130s to bring in supplies to cities. They even talked about i

    • Think of a zombie outbreak as a metaphor for the rise of ISIS. Zombies move into a region and "convert" non-zombies. These new zombies then strengthen the horde. The horde becomes surprisingly hard to contain or eliminate.
    • If 95% of the entire world population was converted into zombies magically overnight, it would take the other 5% 20 days at 1 zombie a day to eradicate the horde. If any reasonable model of infection is consulted, a sizable enough portion of the worlds armies would remain uninfected to solve the issue in a matter of hours.

      • by Jeremi ( 14640 )

        If 95% of the entire world population was converted into zombies magically overnight, it would take the other 5% 20 days at 1 zombie a day to eradicate the horde.

        How long would it take the 95% to eliminate (or convert, if you prefer) most of the 5%?

    • The key thing about zombies is that they're made of meat. If we're talking undead zombies, maybe they won't just starve and fall but they'll rot, get eaten by animals, and generally become weaker with time. Sooner or later, it will be hard for them to transmit the infection even if they're little more than bone and infected marrow by that time. But let's wax realistic.

      Suppose we get some terrible flu/rabies hybrid pandemic that essentially creates the zombie scenario with mindless, violent, highly con
      • Ah, but you're not considering all the mosquitoes, ticks, and even flies that will carry infected material away. I mean come on - if the disease can continue to thrive in dead flesh then that fly that walked across your sandwich when you weren't looking has almost certainly infected you. The whole biting thing is just folklore.

        • That depends upon the method of transmission, and the folklore is based on real concepts about pathogens. The zombie scenario is the absolute worst case imaginable where an infectious disease is concerned, and nothing more really. Even a disease that causes its victims to instantly drop dead isn't as bad because the victims aren't mobile vectors.

          As a case in point, chances are that nobody ever caught ebola from a fly.
    • If the zombies began in a small town, the uninfected would be evacuated and quarantined (to make sure they don't turn). Zombies would be either contained or killed.

      If the zombies began in a large city, containment might be more difficult. Just try to evacuate New York City and you'd see that it would be nearly impossible. Even assuming that NYC fell totally zombie, though, the army would be called in to surround the city and destroy and zombies who tried to make it out. It would definitely be a huge los

    • It's a good thing you're not a script writer. You're no fun at all.

  • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:27AM (#49164261)

    Zombies are worse than Pirates and Ninjas!

    Zombies are not REAL, Zombies as an exercise isn't realistic, as you just applying basic game rules to a model.

    Zombies as a literary element is about a lone or a few people against a mindless horde. So we can feel good that a guy with intelligence 1 standard deviation from the mean, can be victorious against such a hord, by outsmarting them. So us normal people feel good about ourselves, that we can somehow be better than the rest of the population.

    This meme needs to go away, it is old and tiresome.

    • by PhilHibbs ( 4537 )

      Zombies have been a popular story trope since long before memes, or even tropes, were invented.

      • Maybe before the words were invented, but that's like saying breathing was popular even before air was invented.

      • I am not saying that they didn't have zombie fads before. But the current fad has gone on for too long. There is too much thinking about zombies as a problem. We need to focus on more serious fictional characters such as wizards.

    • We needed /some/ horde of faceless bad guys after Nazi Germany and the USSR fell, so now we have zombies.

      • We needed /some/ horde of faceless bad guys after Nazi Germany and the USSR fell, so now we have zombies.

        Uh, we needed some more bad guys?

        Because the hordes of actual bad guys blindly following extremist religions causing real deaths (ISIS) somehow doesn't count when discussing imaginary scenarios?

      • by LWATCDR ( 28044 )

        Naw we have ISIS or ISIL, Russia, and the French.
        We always have the French.

        • We do now. We didn't in the '90s when zombies started becoming popular.

          Nobody takes the French army seriously anyway. :P

    • by moeinvt ( 851793 )

      I've enjoyed a lot of the zombie books and movies and even the Walking Dead TV series. It is fiction after all, and some of it has been good.

      The genre has definitely been thoroughly exhausted over the past few years however. There are only so many unique twists you can put on the same basic story. It was fun while it lasted, but you're definitely not alone in thinking that it's getting boring.

  • Boy, it sure is a good thing we've got such a sound model in our heads as to exactly how humans will act and behave once we are "zombies".

    Infected people better be running around with an IQ of 50, superhuman strength, an uncontrollable appetite for brains, and are easily defeated by beheading.

    Otherwise, there's gonna be a lot of people who are pissed that the real-world version of a viral outbreak isn't anything like what Hollywood has so clearly defined as a "zombie".

    A zombie vegetarian with an insatiabl

  • they aren't real. they were never real. they never will be real.

    if you're talking fiction and you want to talk about WWZ or Walking Dead, or whatever game it is you all are still playing, fine.

    But stop posting crap like this where people make simulations about zombies and apocalypses as if this shit is real.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:37AM (#49164349)

    To my city Zoo. 1.4sq miles with its own working train, planetarium, and 10ft concrete walls designed to keep big cats from jumping them. Open exhibits with moats instead of caged pens which are perfect for herding zombies into or keeping criminals. Indoor areas for winter exhibits to take shelter in. A petting farm with a barn full of sustainable livestock animals to live off while using some of the wilder animals to keep both snoops and zombies at bay. Every entrance is heavy pad locked gate or 6ft carousel style gate. It's own water tower, sewage, and generators. Two natural spring fed ponds, gardens, and multiple snack stations loaded with food. Tranq guns, mancatchers, and stun equipment for dealing with humans and wildlife. Massive parking structure with a helipad.

    Come at me bitches!

  • The interesting thing about Zombies is they're for the most part fictional. In our Canadian winters up here, they'd likely freeze solid and they'd pretty much be easy targets at that point. Even if freezing solid doesn't kill them which is odd, there's no cold-blooded animal out there that is active in winter.

    • I'd even go so far as to say entirely fictional. Don't forget that even the slightest damage to the extremely delicate bones, blood vessels and nerve bundles that make up our senses would make them first thing to rot away. Oh, and then there's the laws of thermodynamics.

      I for one am willing to put that all aside for a fun story. But the thing is, its easy to fantasize how you'd survive. I guess a main draw of zombie stories is its easy for anyone to picture themselves a hero.

    • In our Canadian winters up here, they'd likely freeze solid and they'd pretty much be easy targets at that point.

      Just make sure you don't blast them to pieces while in a steel foundry otherwise they'll just liquify and raise again.

    • by moeinvt ( 851793 )

      If you live in Canada, you should definitely be conducting drills where you deploy the military to your southern border. It won't be zombies, but in the near future, it could very well be hordes of starving or thirsty refugees from the USA.

  • by swb ( 14022 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:40AM (#49164375)

    While I enjoy the genre, I find that the "rules" of zombie apocalypse seem designed to limit the ability to humans to fight back by imposing arbitrary limits on the effectiveness of weapons.

    Brooks quickly discounts the effectiveness of military weapons like cluster munitions, Gatling guns and other kinds of weapons designed to put a large amount of shrapnel or projectiles into an area quickly. Even if it didn't result in killing of an entire horde, I would expect it to kill a large number and greatly reduce the threat of most of them by seriously degrading their mobility through damage to their ability to walk or move.

    I'd like to see a Mythbusters episode where they take a 7.62mm Gatling gun and fire it into a simulated zombie horde at average head height to see what kind of damage it would do. It's probably beyond practicality to setup that many targets, but it would be an interesting simulation nonetheless.

    I think the simplest way to deal with a horde would be a minor adaption of a machine designed to clear minefields -- the demining flail. These slightly resemble a combine bolted onto the front of a tank, with the "combine" being basically a bunch of steel weights on the ends of chains designed to beat on the ground to set off mines.

    It's not hard to imagine a much lighter weight device (since zombies don't explode) spinning 5 pound weights in the air. It would completely pulverize zombies and turn clearing zombie hordes into something akin to mowing the grass.

    • Just take all those combine harvesters and mow them down.
    • I think a gatling gun might be overkill honestly. A simple .50 Cal machinegun should suffice as a single round would probably be enough to disassemble multiple zombies. The Hydrostatic shock can seperate limbs from torsos making for a much less threatening mob.

      • by swb ( 14022 )

        I just use the Gatling gun as an example, I think you're right that the .50 BMG round is probably superior for this purpose because of its energy and the benefits you'd get from overpenetration on massed horde as well as reduced ammunition consumption. There might be some technical benefit to the GAU-19 Gatling version of this gun with a cyclic rate reduced to M-2 levels just to limit barrel wear and heating.

        But overall, there's just a whole arsenal of military weapons that could be devastating on massed

  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday March 02, 2015 @10:43AM (#49164407) Journal

    ...but my refuge for the zombie apocalypse?
    The town water tower. Specifically, INSIDE/atop.

    First benefit is that (until now) nobody else would be going there, and you avoid the panic-rush when everyone gets stuck on the freeways.
    Many/most(?) stations have emergency generators already built in and by law well-equipped for sustained operation.
    Ample fresh water, obviously, and a great situation for catching clean rainfall.

    Most of our local towers are largely flat, and basically immune to severe weather and heavily insulated, meaning you'd have a secure, highly defensible place with great sightlines (to signal/communicate other survivors, if that's something you want to do), so high that even if they were attracted to your location, they'd have to pile up so high they'd pretty much liquefy at the bottom before getting to you.

    Bring your acetylene kit as you evacuate*, and you could really build a nice home in there, including ziplines to nearby roofs/buildings for foraging (granted, getting back up there if there were zombies around your entry might stink).
    *lots of small communities actually have a fair amount of tools stored right inside in the base for maintenance, saving you a lot of work.

  • New Jersey has the lowest survival rate? Hey! Don't the Kardashians live there? There is a God after all.
  • Because everybody else is going to leave now, right?

  • Really? We have run out of problems now that time can be spent on all this drivel?

    I personally have heard that zombie brains make excellent dip, so get the chips ready.

  • Anyone else notice that the article and blog post are from March, 2014.

    Yes, this is a /. article about a blog post from a year ago.

    Nothing to see here...

    • by Snowgen ( 586732 )
      ok--my fault. There are multiple FA's to read. The newer one is current, but the summary is still going back a year.
  • Unfortunately a full scale simulation of an outbreak in the United States shows that for `realistic' parameters, we are largely doomed.

    Critics point to an alternate simulation showing that for realistic parameters, zombies wouldn't last long in real life [cracked.com]

  • Their model basically assumes that you - the person who read the study - would be the only one who would flee to some location where you expect to be safe, and everyone else would stay where they were. If humans really were like that then by all means, follow the advice. But of course, many other humans would react to a zombie apocalypse by fleeing to the country. Quite probably, some would bring infected (still asymptomatic) victims along, which would infect others in the "isolated" sanctuary. How many res
  • A piece of conversation overheard in a bus:

    Guy1: "What would you do if a horde of zombies would approach your house?"
    Guy2: "I'd blast them to dust with my pocket atomic bombs."
    Guy1: "Oh come on, be realistic!"
  • Unless they run on nuclear fusion, zombies that don't eat will stumble around for a few days tops, then weaken and drop in their tracks. I mean, where do they get the energy to run around for week after week? Where's the thermodynamics?
  • I should think the safest place to hide would be among fundamentalists.

    No large concentration of brains there to attract hungry zombies.

//GO.SYSIN DD *, DOODAH, DOODAH

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