Facebook Mocks 'Infection' Study, Predicts Princeton's Demise 193
Okian Warrior writes "In a followup to the earlier story about Princeton researchers predicting the end of Facebook by 2017, Facebook has struck back with a post using similar statistical techniques to predict that Princeton itself may be facing irreversible decline. By using similar methods ('likes', mentions in scholarly papers, Google searches) Facebook has created graphs that indicate Princeton is losing ground compared with its rivals and may have no students at all by 2021."
Atleast.. (Score:5, Funny)
Princeton will have the last laugh as facebook will be dead before it.
Re:Atleast.. (Score:4, Insightful)
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Not sure about that but I'll say that I had fun reading both articles in full.
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Princeton will have the last laugh as facebook will be dead before it.
I am not sure of that. The USA trend is to ship good jobs offshore, and keep the service jobs. Service jobs are low paying.
If tuition is beyon the abilities of the low paying earners, who will attend. If Princton hit 75% occupency, they probably going to lose money. And the much lower tuition costs of non-USA universities means that there will be a substantial brain-drain, compounding the problem.
Montreal Canada student rentals are about $1000, sharable for two or three students. Foreign fees are about
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There are no winners in a war. In this case... YAY!
Pseudoscience (Score:5, Funny)
Turn about is fair play sir!
Re: Pseudoscience (Score:5, Funny)
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For Princeton, it could be "reap less than half of what you sow", the part the government doesn't toss to the birds...
It means the same thing (Score:3)
for all intensive purposes.
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What do you mean, pacifically?
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I approve of this thread.
Carry on!
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Intensive purposes, irregardless, ekcetera
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Words change meaning over time. (Score:3)
Irregardless of the origins of the phrase, it is perfectly reasonable to say "for all intensive purposes".
Re: It means the same thing (Score:2)
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Their, their. I'm pretty sure the GP's "error" was sewn into there comment on porpoise.
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At least Princeton... (Score:5, Insightful)
FAIL (Score:2)
Offers good value for the time and money you spend there.
You wouldn't know it from the idiocies exposed in the Facebook paper.
Re:At least Princeton... (Score:5, Insightful)
The kids that go to Princeton would probably do just fine in life no matter where they go.
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And probably you end up with the same skills no matter what university you're on, but get hired only if you went to the expensive one.
That's the only reason why paying more in tuition sometimes might pay of.
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While it is true that the Princeton grad will have the superior resume, that really only matters for the first job out of college. While I'm sure someone here will point out exceptions, work experience quickly eclipses education on the resume.
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Absolutely right.
But your first after collage matters for work experience....
Basically, you can buy a head start. It won't help against a real good competitor, but it might just be the advantage you need over someone with similar (or slightly better) qualifications.
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Heading back to my original thesis - that your typical Princeton student will be fine no matter where they go... not only are they probably very smart and hard-working, but they probably come from some means and their family is likely to be well connected. You are absolutely right that they are buying a head start, but it is a head start among an already extremely privileged peer group. I know that people of more modest backgrounds also go to Princeton, and to them I say congratulations!
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Princeton has "needs-blind" admission. They'll help you graduate loan free: https://www.princeton.edu/admi... [princeton.edu]
You have the filthy rich sitting next to the dirt poor in lectures. But the one thing they both have in common, desides the grim and grit, is that they are both smart and work hard.
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That's great, but who is more likely to be at the top of their high-school class and go to fancy private schools so that they have a leg up on Princeton's admissions criteria?
Re:At least Princeton... (Score:4, Interesting)
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If the government gives you a 3% subsidized loan that doesn't start accruing interest until you start paying it off, you take that thing.
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It's definitely gone up, but I just checked and the undergrad rate is still under 4%.
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No, they're still rich kids because they wear cardigans instead of hoodies, drink lattes instead of 40s, use iPhones instead of pagers, ride bikes instead of the bus, and have aspirations of working an office job rather than being a famous rapper or baller.
Depends on the weather (Score:2)
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I worked with a Princeton grad. He said the valedictorian speech was in Greek, but since no one at Princeton knows Greek anymore the student programs had it translated complete with notations as to where to clap and laugh at jokes. For this his dad paid Ivy league tuition. It aptly shows what said Ivy League education actually is, an overpriced sham.
BTW, I am an A&M grad who was his boss and flogged him at chess.
Re:At least Princeton... (Score:5, Insightful)
I worked with a Princeton grad. He said the valedictorian speech was in Greek, but since no one at Princeton knows Greek anymore the student programs had it translated complete with notations as to where to clap and laugh at jokes. For this his dad paid Ivy league tuition. It aptly shows what said Ivy League education actually is, an overpriced sham.
BTW, I am an A&M grad who was his boss and flogged him at chess.
You don't go to an Ivy League school for the education. You go for the contacts, networking and prestige. It's not about what you learn at Princeton, but whom you meet.
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Considering the Princeton grad was working for the A&M grad, I'm not sure the contacts and networking were working out as he expected.
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Considering the Princeton grad was working for the A&M grad, I'm not sure the contacts and networking were working out as he expected.
It cannot be determined without knowing more. For example, the Princeton grad could be 23 years old and new to the company, whereas the A&M grad could be 60 years old and own the company.
Favorite Aggie joke (Score:2)
A: Boss.
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Here you demonstrate the problem graduates of elite universities deal with in the job market. Unless you go straight from university to an investment bank or Google, 95 percent of the people you deal with are not graduates of elite universities. And most of them fervently want to believe they are just as competent as you. Despite the fact that you busted your ass academically for 16+ years, while they may or may not have.
I mean, there are some very competent graduates of 2nd tier state schools. But there ar
Greeks on a student visa (Score:2)
no one at Princeton knows Greek anymore
I don't understand how Rose-Hulman can get someone from Greece on a student visa but Princeton can't.
Actually... (Score:5, Funny)
The best part of Facebook's article is where they use identical research methodology to prove that there will be no air left by 2060.
I predict an immediate rush on all stockpiles of canned air!
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The best part of Facebook's article is where they use identical research methodology to prove that there will be no air left by 2060.
I predict an immediate rush on all stockpiles of canned air!
I maintain a reserve supply of bottled air in my garage. I've got almost 700 cubic feet. 10-15 hours worth at my average consumption rate.
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If you mean your car (I have no notion of how much 700 cubic feet is, nor do I want to, as I'm quite happy with SI units), don't forget it's not airtight. Be sure to cover everything with tape, so that your reserve doesn't disappear!
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But he didn't define bottled. Must it be a bottle or is the act of storing air in a container, whichever it is, still bottling?
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My life contains 0 imperial units, unless some american comes along.
I have better things to do than spend time memorizing conversions for imperial units. I do know some, but I made no effort to learn them.
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I had no trouble memorizing the fact that 0K equals -273.15degC even though I haven't used Kelvins since college chemistry.
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It's easy to memorize numbers you use a lot, especially if you have the feeling it'll save time.
Let me rephrase: I have nothing to gain from trying to memorize a few factors. As such, I will make no effort to try. That doesn't mean I don't end up remembering a few, like some 4 liters in a gallon.
I just drank a fifth of vodka; dare me to drive? (Score:2)
That doesn't mean I don't end up remembering a few, like some 4 liters in a gallon.
Especially when a "fifth" of liquor (750 mL) is so called because it's so close to one-fifth of a gallon.
Brand? (Score:2, Funny)
Is it Perri-Air?
Re: Actually... (Score:2)
i think he was referencing an air compressor.
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I maintain a reserve supply of bottled air in my garage. I've got almost 700 cubic feet. 10-15 hours worth at my average consumption rate.
Gee, it would be a real shame if something happened to your precious air reserve. Such as, I don't know, if someone pressed this little button on your garage door opener?
It's compressed and in bottles. I wasn't talking about the ambient air in the garage.
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Quick! We'll have to steal Druidia's air!
This just in (Score:4, Insightful)
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http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa... [google.co.uk]
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I don't know if Facebook really want to promote the idea that numerical analytics are suspect. Isn't their whole business plan that advertising with them is so effective because they are able to target ads to people who are most receptive to them, based on proprietary models of behavior? Even if they win the argument, they lose.
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That's what happens you become a data scientist. They invent numbers out of thin air.
They won’t do that for long when there will be no air left.
A message from Facebook that earns my respect? (Score:2)
Okay, that's not what I was expecting to see this morning. Or ever, come to think about it.
I guess it's good to know that I can respect a well-crafted response, even when it comes from a source I don't respect.
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That should have been obvious. Occasionally, people I generally strongly disagree with say or write something I do agree with -- just like a broken clock is right twice a day.
Bets are open (Score:3)
That was quick... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:That was quick... (Score:4, Insightful)
Funny how quick they replied to this study, feeling a bit nervous facebook?
Probably less nervous about Princeton's analysis than Wallstreet's, which shows the same thing. It's hard for any business to lose 20% of it's main demographic. When your main revenue stream is online ads and young people are the primary target of those ads, and studies show that once they leave, they are unlikely to return, it doesn't speak well for the future.
Does that mean FB will go out of business? That's up to them. Tech companies have to keep re-inventing themselves to stay relevant.
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Considering how quick a misleading study by a top university could totally ruin their stock price, it was be stupid not to respond quickly.
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You have an interesting definition of 'vaporware'.
Brilliant Response (Score:5, Insightful)
This is a brilliant way to respond to the Princeton study - the correct way - rather than issue a press release denouncing it, or whine about it some other way.
Instead, use the study's own methodology against them to show other ridiculous conclusions. What are the academics at Princeton going to do, say "oh wait the original methods are bullshit". Anything they say against just weakens their original paper/study.
Re:Brilliant Response (Score:4, Insightful)
This is a brilliant way to respond to the Princeton study - the correct way - rather than issue a press release denouncing it, or whine about it some other way.
Instead, use the study's own methodology against them to show other ridiculous conclusions. What are the academics at Princeton going to do, say "oh wait the original methods are bullshit". Anything they say against just weakens their original paper/study.
Maybe if Zuckerberg had finished his studies at Harvard, he would realize that an internet company and a university have two totally different business models and the analysis methods for one do not translate to the other.
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True. Which doesn't mean that ones used in both "studies" are valid for Facebook and invalid for Princeton. They might as well invalid for both. Or, which would be even more funny, applicable to universities, but not to internet portals.
Re:Brilliant Response (Score:5, Insightful)
True. Which doesn't mean that ones used in both "studies" are valid for Facebook and invalid for Princeton. They might as well invalid for both. Or, which would be even more funny, applicable to universities, but not to internet portals.
That might be true, but FB didn't attempt to show the study was invalid. Instead they tried to discredit it with a straw man argument.
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I dunno, it didn't help the Princeton academics, who apparently didn't realise that viruses and tech companies have two totally different business models, and that the analysis models for one do not translate to the other.
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To me this sounds a lot more of a tit-for-tat response than anything that'd "weaken" the original paper. I'm not saying the original paper's conclusions are that great, but
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Its because if Facebook actually had to try and acknowledge the problem seriously, they'd have to acknowledge seriously that they really do have a whole lot of great big question marks over their future - i.e. who pays them for things? Why would they? Do their users stick around when this happens?
What will replace Facebook? (Score:5, Insightful)
I am not arguing that Facebook will not fall in the same way that Myspace did. I am just arguing that we do not have the data to make the case. Accurately predicting the fall of Facebook is a matter of "art", not of science and most of those doing so are expressing an opinion based on a WAG (and perhaps on what they hope will happen). Myspace and Friendster were fads. Facebook started as a fad, Myspace and Friendster faded away when they lost their novelty and were replaced by the next fad. However, Facebook has survived past the fad stage. I will repeat that just because Facebook has survived past the fad stage that does not mean that it will last.
Re:What will replace Facebook? (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm not sure it's passed the fad stage.
That is probably true for the traditional social network audience (kids), however, Facebook has a very large user base that arrived more recently and has a greater tendency towards inertia.
As I've said before, I have no doubt Facebook will somehow disappear. I'm just not sure how.
Myspace-esque replacement with something else?
A new overarching medium to replace social networks?
Some scandal that will drive users (and/or advertisers directly) away, making it less interesting for advertisers?
Will it morph into something completely different, keeping essentially just the name?
Will the process drag on for years?
What will happen to everything that ties into Facebook today? We're talking about phones whose OSes integrate some Facebook stuff, appliances that integrate with facebook, websites that use facebook for authentication...
Or, of course, Facebook might live forever, but that is not what I'd bet on.
I'm not going to group Facebook with companies like IBM or General Electric. The former is absolutely dependant on the whims of millions of people. The latter two only have to sell (and support in exchange for big bucks) expensive items to businesses, instead of relying on advertising.
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Every feature of Facebook that caused me to sign on with it when it first opened, is available through Twitter. I'm linked to everyone I know and I can give them status updates and post photos and view theirs. There is no reason for me to ever use Facebook now that I have Twitter.
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Every feature of Facebook that caused me to sign on with it when it first opened, is available through Twitter
Ok, then, post a single article with 300 words to twitter.
There are lots of things I dislike about FB, not the least of which is that 95% of the margin ads feature amply endowed young females regardless of the product in question, but at least I can post a complete paragraph plus a pic or two in one element.
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Every feature of Facebook that caused me to sign on with it when it first opened, is available through Twitter
Ok, then, post a single article with 300 words to twitter.
There are lots of things I dislike about FB, not the least of which is that 95% of the margin ads feature amply endowed young females regardless of the product in question, but at least I can post a complete paragraph plus a pic or two in one element.
This is why I question the long term viability of Facebook: I've had it ad-blocked since forever. I will never un-adblock it. And you've stated the exact reason why and why it's a problem: with all their data, the only ads they push are still "broadest possible demographic" ads that are just unwelcome.
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The problem with this assumption is that Myspace's fall was a result of Facebook existing as its successor.
This.
I refused to use MySpace mostly due to the terrible "customization" that it allowed. I suspect that was the reason a lot of people switched over.
The difference is... (Score:5, Insightful)
The difference is that Princeton hasn't seen major declines (in the millions) of its primary demographic group. FB is funded both directly and indirectly by advertising/marketers. If the demographic for FB shifts elsewhere, so will the revenue stream. Princeton's funding is more diverse coming from tuition/fees, grants and contributions/bequests. Unless there is a scandal, it is unlikely that those sources will change.
In addition, the competition of universities is pretty fixed. It is extremely expensive to start a new one (and get accredited). FB, on the other hand, well, it wasn't too long ago that Myspace was the king of the hill and FB was the challenger.
Good (Score:5, Funny)
Facebook has used the same techniques as Princeton, and as such we can conclude that they approve of these techniques, and find them useful analytical instruments.
The only conclusion we can draw from this is the demise of both Princeton and Facebook.
Obligatory XKCD (Score:2)
http://xkcd.com/605/
Only extrapolate in the opposite direction.
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It's not the same. (Score:2)
Princenton article proposed a 'virus' model that fitted pretty well to Facebook growth and current decline, and made a prediction based on that, ignoring some social parameters, and made a prediction.
Facebook's article is just extrapolating, and not being a virtual entity, the virtual presence of Princenton might not be an equally good indicator.
Gramps says no (Score:5, Funny)
but (Score:2)
By 2021... (Score:2)
So, I guess Princeton hit pretty close to the mark (Score:3)
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Facebook IS different (Score:3)
Facebook is more integrated into the rest of the web than all those other things.
None of the things you just mentioned, had millions of other sites embedding "like buttons" which give free intelligence to them whenever someone loads that other site's pages. Facebook, Google [Analytics], AddThis, and a few other things (Comscore and Quantcast) do something sort of similar (but at greater cost to them
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Those 'like' buttons are a couple lines of HTML to put on your site. And sites have developed a lot of them (I think some news sites load about 6-7 different ones each time?).
They're not "Facebook". They're just a feature of Web 2.0 - and highly replaceable.
The mistake you're making is that those buttons are leading to some type of competitive advantage to Facebook, when all the actual financial data shows it's not - Facebook might have tons of user demographics, but it isn't meaningfully translating to fis
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Oh, how I wish for modpoints!
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the integration with everything is the key. right now, if i want to share anything interesting/useful on the web with a friend, or a group of friends, fb is the best way to do that. whether i am on my phone, my tablet, or my laptop, i can share stuff easily and quickly, and i can be sure that my friends get the message as soon as they glance at their phone, laptop, anything connected to the web. g+ does this, but fuck g+ because its just a copy.
the only danger i see to this maybe from apps like whatsapp and
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Assuming an even distribution of Americas most powerful anti-Semites across the US and across US universities, that conclusion is logically correct.
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We might have to resort back to more hostile means to "unfriend" each other, which as been the only useful feature FB has brought into my life.
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actually, if the methodology is correct, they both ARE correct.