Seismic Data Set Could Improve Earthquake Forecasting 32
sciencehabit writes "Geoscientists still can't predict when a major quake will strike, and many have given up trying. But many do try to issue more general forecasts of hazards and potential damage. This week, researchers added a potentially powerful new tool to their kit: the largest seismic database of its kind ever constructed, based on tens of thousands of earthquake records stretching back more than 1,000 years. Together with a new global map of strain accumulation at plate boundaries, the data sets will form the core of an international public-private partnership intended to reshape the science of earthquake forecasting."
Good news everyone! (Score:5, Funny)
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Not funny :) So called Italian Scientists (and town Mayor) didnt try to predict a quake, they went in front of cameras and publicly stated _there wont be any quake, go home and sleep tight_.
See a difference?
Good think, but do not expect too much (Score:5, Insightful)
It is highly unlikely this will yield a method if any reliability. Natural phenomena are rarely so complicated that some prediction heuristic cannot be established from experience, if such a heuristic is possible. It may still help a lot for longer-term risk evaluation and therefore is entirely desirable. But "there are no silver bullets" applies just as much here as it does in other fields.
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More data does not mean better. They may be the wrong type of data or the signal may be lost in the noise. Less data focused on the right things could be the best approach. There must be a fundamental understanding of what should be measured first.
It's still a fast changing field (Score:2)
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Apparently is wasn't entirely accepted for a few years and then took a few more years after that to make it into the undergraduate course, but either way some of the people that lead groups of geophysicists got their degree in the 1960s and 1970s.
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Big Data (Score:1)
Anyone try animating? (Score:3, Interesting)
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What if you compared that data to historical data of solar cycles?
Comparing big data sets to look for correlations is definitely interesting stuff. The data is already regularly compared to itself to look for patterns, and there don't really seem to be any.
Warning Systems (Score:5, Informative)
I think warning systems are one of the best new technologies for dealing with earthquakes.
The technology is pretty straightforward. You network seismic sensors together and create a system that can detect oncoming (and usually unnoticed) P-waves which have a higher velocity than the destructive S-waves that follow anywhere from 30 to 90 seconds later.
The distributed nature of the system ensures that any result is the product of multiple sensors producing the same data.
30 to 90 seconds is a lot of time. You could deploy receivers set accept the existing SAME codes [noaa.gov] and automatically send building systems into "Earthquake Mode" via simple relays. Virtually everything that would need to happen is already part of the programming of each affected system. In a lot of cases, you wouldn't even need to modify them in any significant way as they already accept inputs from external relays.
Once the alert goes out:
- Emergency messages are sent to all cell phone users - This system exists and is used for other emergencies.
- Fire station doors roll-up. - Add a simple sounding device and momentary contact to the existing door-opening circuit and you're done.
- Earthquake alarms sound in homes and small businesses - Weather radios that accept SAME codes are already programmed to do this.
- Earthquake alarms sound in major buildings - Fire alarm systems with voice evac are already customized and can accept new initiating devices and announcements with a software update.
- Emergency generators and fire pumps spin-up. Smoke handling systems activate. Stairwells are pressurized. - See above.
- Elevators go into "Fire Mode". All cars go to their recall floor, hold the doors open and refuse input. - This programming exists in every elevator installed in the past few decades. Activating a building fire alarm system will trip this anyway.
- Gas main valves are closed. - This is cheap and simple tech.
- Halt surgery - Voice evac / weather radios that accept SAME codes.
- Shut down industrial processes - Some combination of the above.
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You network seismic sensors together and create a system that can detect oncoming (and usually unnoticed) P-waves which have a higher velocity than the destructive S-waves that follow anywhere from 30 to 90 seconds later.
Or, you could - you know - simply create a network of sensors that will propagate their measurements at speed of light into all areas of interest. I'm not sure how fast the P-waves are these days but they are most certainly slower than light.
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I'm not so sure if the ground roll really is so far behind unless the quake is very deep.
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Instrumentation (Score:2)
I've seen earthquake reports on the media from around the world. Most often, they show some interesting computer generated plots of quake energy, frequency distribution and lots of information that might be useful for the prediction task.
When we have a quake in the Pacific Northwest (near Seattle), they cut to a scene at the geoscience department of the UW, with a shot of a drum recorder and a leaky ink pen scribbling wavy lines.
public-private partnership (Score:2)
God to smite researchers over data collection... (Score:1)
Scientists have received smite threats from God, who feels this wholesale collecting of data on his earthquakes is an invasion of his heavenly privacy.
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That's just the last 100 years, though. And be aware that the completness magnitude changes over time.