Mt. Fuji May Be Close To Erupting 269
SpuriousLogic points out an article at Wired discussing research into pressure levels inside Mt. Fuji's magma chamber, which scientists claim is higher than it was in 1707, the last time it erupted. "The new readings, taken by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, reveal that the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption." A series of earthquakes shook the area around Mt. Fuji a little over a decade ago, and a fault line was discovered underneath it. "Since the March 2011 tsunami and the 6.4 magnitude earthquake that followed four days later, Japan has been on tenterhooks, and in May 2012 a professor from Ryukyu University warned that a massive eruption within three years would be likely because of several major factors: steam and gases are being emitted from the crater, water eruptions are occurring nearby, massive holes emitting hot natural gases are appearing in the vicinity." While the rising pressure within the magma chamber is of concern, it is but one factor among many that lead to eruptions.
Another thing to worry about... (Score:5, Funny)
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You don't have to worry about ninjas unless you're a pirate.
Well? Are you?
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You forgot Mothra. They've already found radioactive butterfiles near Fukushima.
Godzilla vs Mothra wasn't sci-fi after all... it was prophecy!
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Don't forget battle mechs and tentacled rapist sea monsters.
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You look forward to being raped by a sea monster's tentacle, and then being shot at by a battle mech? To each his own, I guess.
Re:Another thing to worry about... (Score:4, Funny)
Remember, you don't have to run faster than tentacled sea monster / battle mech. You only have to run faster than the guy next to you. And then you can turn around and watch - that's the looked forward to part.
don't go to Japan (Score:2)
wait for Japan to come to you.
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just get the ninjas on your side, then you'll be fine.
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That's Taiwan, not Japan.
Re:Another thing to worry about... (Score:4, Informative)
I am going to Japan in October, so in addition to earthquakes, tsunamis, radiation, ninjas, and godzilla, I now also have to worry about lava??? Damn...
Don't forget vorpal bunnies [youtube.com]
Well, that was a waste of time. No vorpalness, no attacks, no fights, nothing at all but a bunch of rabbits scurrying after pellets.
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No. You have to be reasonably prepared for it, that's all. It's futile to worry about things you cannot control. Or those you can control, because then you just have to take necessary actions. Worrying is never the right solution.
Re:Another thing to worry about... (Score:5, Interesting)
I find it funny to hear all of the worry about things like Fuji. I mean, I know, I get it, it's roughly 100 km from Tokyo, which is a huge super mega-city. But living here in Iceland, hearing other places talking about "active" areas just seems kind of funny. I mean, the ground in parts of the capital region here in Reykjavík is just several hundred years old. On the hill right next to where I work, they drilled a 90 meter pipe into the ground, put a choke on the top, drip in water, and it erupts regularly as a geyser. A quarter of the city's hot water comes right from downtown. I mean, half an hour's drive (plus a bit of a walk) from my house you can walk *inside* a magma chamber. Not a lava tube, the actual magma chamber. It's empty now but there's other active magma chambers in the region.
And we're not considered one of the more active regions.
Fuji erupts every few hundred years, the biggest being VEI 5? Yawn. Katla's been threatening to go off any day now for the past couple years, and she's a VEI 6. And she's got an ice cap on top; last time she had a big eruption, she sent down a flood with as high a flow rate as the average outflow of the Amazon, Mississippi, Nile, and Yangtzee combined. That is, as much water flowing by as would fill up a cube over 200 feet on each side (roughly equivalent to a city block of 20-story buildings), every second.
Japan is volcanically active? As much as a third of the lava on Earth in the past 500 years is estimated to have come from Iceland.
Fuji's last big eruption was in the early 1700s? In the late 1700s we had Laki go off, most devastating eruption in recorded human history. A fissure opened up 23 kilometers long, up to 200 meters wide in places, with lava fountains as much as 1.5 kilometer in the air, erupting for 8 months straight. Sulfur dioxide was equivalent to a Mt. Pinatubo every three days. But that wasn't the worst, the worst was the anomalously high amounts of hydrofluoric acid. The eruption killed 80% of Iceland's sheep and even directly caused 23,000 human poisoning fatalities in the UK from the deadly blood-red cloud, as well as bizarre weather including tremendous thunderstorms with hailstones large enough to kill cattle.
So yeah, yeah, I know, Fuji is more of a threat because Japan has such huge coastal populations and economic activity and stuff, I fully understand that, but still... I guess your perception of risk is relative to your environment.
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According to Wikipedia, the Tokyo metro area is 35 million people. That's 1/10th the population of the US, or almost 5% of the population (and certainly larger than most countries) of Europe. This is on top of a country who is still reeling from a crippled power generation grid and a national disaster in the north. Considering their auto and electronics exports, not to mention financial markets, that's not a small consequence if something blows up.
Then again, it is hard to argue with kilometre+ hig
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Yeah, well...
Iceland ain't right [satwcomic.com] :P
Re:Another thing to worry about... (Score:4, Interesting)
Slightly larger in terms of volume of ejected matter (20 km^3 vs. 14 km^3), but nowhere near as devastating. It's the gasses that are the problem, and while Krakatoa emitted 20 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide (considered a huge amount - by comparison, Mount St. Helens was only 1.5), Laki emitted a staggering 120 million tonnes. The really extreme example was hydrogen fluoride, which is normally a minor volcanic gas. At 8 million tonnes, Laki put out almost half as much HF as Krakatoa put out in *sulfur dioxide*. Really extreme, and really devastating.
Re:Another thing to worry about... (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm personally quite familiar with living near active volcanoes, occasionally waking to find the city covered with one or two centimetres of volcanic ash - pretty but not fun. I've been able at times to look out of my relatives' windows to see a direct view of Mount Tongariro and its ever changing plume, and I've even spent time in places where people cook food by burying it and letting the natural heat of the ground do the cooking. But nowhere I've been or even heard about matches the Icelanders' strange relationship with their volcanoes.
Mt. Strongbadia (Score:2)
My mountain asplode!
I feel sorry for the Japanese (Score:4, Interesting)
They have indeed had more than enough of natural disasters, as well as self-triggered disasters.
"Nearly"? (Score:3)
>the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption.
I'm no mathematician, but I'm pretty sure that 1.6 divided by 0.1 is *EXACTLY* 16.
Re:"Nearly"? (Score:5, Funny)
My P5 system says 1.6 / 0.1 = 16.000739068902037589.
Re:"Nearly"? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:"Nearly"? (Score:5, Interesting)
Probably more than you think.
My high school had an Engineering Ethics class, mandatory for all students in a tech-related major. One of the case studies was the Pentium FDIV bug, and how Intel handled it. Other case studies included Tacoma Narrows, Chernobyl, and a bunch of other forgettable ones.
I graduated HS in '09. So "my generation" may be learning about it in a history class rather than through usage, but we *are* learning about it.
In other words, "no, YOU get off the lawn, old man!"
Re:"Nearly"? (Score:4, Funny)
I wonder how many people here are old enough to get your joke?
At work about 6 months back, I heard a colleague humming "Daisy"; and joined in with the words:
Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do,
Getting hazy, can't divide 3 by 2,
My answers I cannoy get 'em,
They are stuck in my Pentium,
I could be fleet, my answers sweet,
With a workable FPU.
What was truly awesome however was that another work colleague joined in about half-way through.
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"P5"...?
that's P4.987435459273 to you, sir. (Score:2)
computers never lie. but "idle time" is actually spent figuring how close they can come and still not be lying.
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In their defence, both 1.6 and 0.1 are likely numbers that are rounded from some more precise measurements. The term "nearly" probably applied to the original measurements as opposed to the nicely rounded numbers presented in TFA. Just sayin'...
Re:"Nearly"? (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm curious, do you say, "I'll be there in 58 minutes and 48 seconds," or do you say, "I'll be there in an hour?"
I'm pretty sure both the .1 and the 1.6 megapascals is a rough estimate and not a 100% exact, set-in-stone figure.
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I'm curious, do you say, "I'll be there in 58 minutes and 48 seconds," or do you say, "I'll be there in an hour?"
I say "Google Maps tells me it's going to take 58 minutes, 48 seconds to get there - so I'll see you in an hour and a half".
Evacuation test run next year ??? (Score:5, Interesting)
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Evacuating that many people would be a gargantuan civil project, its doubtful many countries could even attempt a test run. Its not like everyone can simply form an orderly line and proceed calmly to the nearest exit, transport infrastructure will be swamped, to say nothing of post-incident survivor support. I wonder will they move everyone, or just a few in trial areas.
Re:Evacuation test run next year ??? (Score:5, Informative)
Its not like everyone can simply form an orderly line and proceed calmly to the nearest exit
Apparently you've never been to Japan.
See some of the pictures from the last earthquake and tsunami; people evacuating the subway stations are stopped and standing to one side in a neat line on the halted escalator to let emergency workers go down past.
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The point is that there isn't a "nearest exit" when you're trying to move that many people quickly. There are a series of increasingly congested exits, leading ultimately to a triage situation in terms of casualties. Maybe the Japanese will work out a plan to get everyone clear in good time, who knows. I'd be interested to see it anyway.
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Hell, you'd think they would move everyone away and do something to TRIGGER an eruption, when they are ready for it.
Probably the best way to go about it - you can do it on your terms, or you can do it when the mountain wants to do it.
Re:Evacuation test run next year ??? (Score:5, Funny)
Better rescue the coke machine (Score:2)
Re:Better rescue the coke machine (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Better rescue the coke machine (Score:5, Informative)
Source: I'm a market researcher specializing in food/beverage packaging in the US.
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Birth of a 12 oz: How It's Made: Aluminum Cans - YouTube [youtube.com]
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Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Colonel... that Coca-Cola machine. I want you to shoot the lock off it. There may be some change in there.
Colonel "Bat" Guano: That's private property.
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Colonel! Can you possibly imagine what is going to happen to you, your frame, outlook, way of life, and everything, when they learn that you have obstructed a telephone call to the President of the United States? Can you imagine? Shoot it off! Shoot! With a gun! That's what the bullets are for, you twit!
Colonel "Bat" Guano: Okay. I'm gonna get your money for ya. But if you don't get the President of the United States on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you?
Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: What?
Colonel "Bat" Guano: You're gonna have to answer to the Coca-Cola company.
would a buncha drillbots work?? (Score:3, Interesting)
could they maybe drill a set of holes and
1 steer the lava to someplace NOT populated
2 prevent the lava camber from going full bore BOOM
when using Po^HMnt Fuji for your scam always set your clock for Volcano Day
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could they maybe drill a set of holes and
1 steer the lava to someplace NOT populated
2 prevent the lava camber from going full bore BOOM
when using Po^HMnt Fuji for your scam always set your clock for Volcano Day
I say we send Bruce Willis and his team of oil roughnecks to drill the holes and relieve the pressure. He saved the planet once [wikipedia.org], he may as well do it again.
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Only if the drillbots are equipped with drilldos.
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According to this http://maps.google.ca/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&q=mount+fuji+map&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Mt+Fuji&gl=ca&t=p&ll=35.241133,138.952332&spn=1.323484,2.425232&z=9&vpsrc=6 [google.ca]
They should be able to divert it to the water and make Japan bigger.
I don't know if this has ever been done before.
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I would expect something like this to work well in places like Hawaii, but instead they opted to divert building houses to places where the lava doesn't flow.
Drill a hole, relieve the pressure? (Score:2)
Re:Drill a hole, relieve the pressure? (Score:4, Insightful)
IANAV, but I would guess that a 30cm bore hole wouldn't have much of an effect on a magma chamber that is miles wide.
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There would also be the difficulty of keeping the hole from plugging as the magma cooled on its way to the surface. Or what to even drill the hole with... I'm not aware of any drilling equipment that can reliably drill into liquid rock.
Lastly, even if you do solve the above problems; there is a word for venting magma to atmosphere: Volcano.
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The idea is that you need to vent the magma in a slow, controlled way, rather than letting the pressure build up until it explodes. Direct the magma (now "lava" after it's out of the ground) into the sea.
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Well, you could nail the side with a bunker-buster or something and just blow it open. Less controlled, but more controlled then just letting it do it when/where it wants.
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As far as I am aware, even the nuclear bunker busters [wikipedia.org] can only go a couple hundred feet deep (~50m). The Fuji magma chamber is about 56km [wikipedia.org] below the surface.
So, hey. Nobody is going to mind if we set off about a thousand nukes, will they?
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If a flow could be established, the pressure would eventually go down, and the hole would tend to melt itself bigger. That might cause earthquakes in itself.
Cr
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Some small earthquakes caused by a pressure-relief hole would be far preferable to a giant volcanic eruption. It'd also be best if some kind of path for the lava were built to direct it someplace safe, like into the sea.
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I am not a volcano?
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vulcanologist.
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Re:Drill a hole, relieve the pressure? (Score:5, Funny)
They want to, but Bruce Willis already died in space saving the world from that asteroid.
So who inherits his iTunes collection?
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Yeah, everyone knows the proper way to relieve pressure is to sacrifice a virgin.
What triggers an eruption? (Score:2)
The new readings, taken by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, reveal that the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption
If that's what it takes to trigger an eruption, why didn't it happen 1.5 megapascals ago?
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Because, according to TFS:
While the rising pressure within the magma chamber is of concern, it is but one factor among many that lead to eruptions.
Re:What triggers an eruption? (Score:4, Insightful)
The new readings, taken by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, reveal that the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption
If that's what it takes to trigger an eruption, why didn't it happen 1.5 megapascals ago?
Probably the same reason why even though a cigarette is enough to trigger a gasoline explosion, people still manage to smoke while fueling their cars without blowing themselves up - a cigarette is sufficient to set it off, but it takes a combination of factors to make it happen.
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Cigarettes won't set off gasoline. You need an open flame. A cigarette will just get put out when dipped in liquid fuel.
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Reference?
While being drawn, a cigarette has a temperature of around 400 - 500 degC, while the auto ignition temperature of gasoline is 280 degC.
You may be able to throw a lit cigarette in a pool of gasoline and extinguish the cigarette, but I woudn't want to bend down and tie my shoe with my mouth near the gas filler nozzle with gasoline vapor escaping from my gas tank (which admittedly with modern sealed tanks and vapor recovery nozzles is minimal, but I still wouldn't bet my life on it).
http://wandererh. [hubpages.com]
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I'm so glad you are not working with flammable materials anywhere near me. Liquid gasoline, yes. Gasoline *vapors*, on the other hand, can go off on just a spark or lit cigarette if conditions are right. Most of the time, the vapors won't be thick enough, particularly if you handle the gasoline properly (but somebody smoking near gasoline *already* isn't handling it properly; how can he
Earth's Cure? (Score:2, Troll)
I think this is Mother Earth's way to tell all AGW'ers that, "Hey I can fucking take care of myself."
Seriously, though, I wonder how much ash this will put in the air and how much it will cool the Earth's warming, if at all? This seems like it could be a major ELE, or it could be a major dud.
Obvious connection (Score:2)
Ever since then, I was wondering why Japanese scientist weren't worried about Fuji. - Now I know: They ARE worried.
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I'm sure they've always been worried. Mt. Fuji has been part of Japanese culture for centuries. There is not one single equivalent of national focus in the US. I doubt if its been ignored. Especially since there's been 16 eruptions in recorded history.
But you're not Japanese, so you wouldn't know about their work, just as much as i think the typical Japanese wouldn't know much about San Andreas fault prep here.
Help on the way (Score:2)
Horrible News for the Locals (Score:2, Informative)
I climbed Mt. Fuji about 4 years ago and all I can think about is whats going to happen to all the people who make a living off the mountain? When you get to the top there is actually a small village on top with shops and homemade food for the people who make it, even at the bottom theres tons of base areas for people to stock up on supplies before the trek. Even along the way there are rest stops and marker points with people to provide services if needed and to sell food. Its a shame to think that all
populated area (Score:2)
I hiked around Mt Fuji in 2009. It's a beautiful area surrounded by a nice town and tons of hotels and tourist areas. It's pretty scary that it could pop at any moment. There will be lots of lost life and property if it erupts big.
Social Impact of an Eruption of Mount Fuji (Score:3)
Here is an excerpt from an article called "Social Impact of an Eruption of Mount Fuji"
(www.hiroi.iii.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index-katudo-kyodo-kenkyu-hujisan-shakaiteki-eikyo-english.pdf)
"The current study focuses only on possible damage from ashfall in an eruption of Mt Fuji
that is comparable to that in the Hoei Eruption. If there are other volcanic disasters such
as landslides, lava flow and pyroclastic flow, the damage will be even greater. The
important message sent out by this study is that even ashfall alone can cause severe
damage: the social and economic impact will likely be felt by the entire nation, not just
restricted to a local area around the mountain.
The following topics will be important from a policy science perspective:
1) socioeconomic impact of interruptions to transportation and logistics including the
expressways (Chuo, Tomei, Metropolitan), bullet trains, metropolitan and other train
networks, and domestic as well as international air services;
2) verification of the primary and secondary types of damage postulated by this study;
3) closer study of damage to the manufacturing industry caused by the uncertainty
perceived by suppliers and customers and damage to the tourism industry due to
cancellations by consumers; and,
4) study of ash removal methods (based on experiences in past ashfalls) and their
feasibility.
The present paper is an interim report of the work to create an eruption scenario based on
the interview-based surveys. It is our plan to conduct questionnaire studies of
businesses, survey researches, interviews of local agencies in the areas of past ashfalls,
and expert surveys in disaster-related fields. The scenario will be refined through
critiques and discussions as a re sult of these further works.
As far as the specific effects and implications of ashfall are concerned, the current study
has based itself on interviews with disaster-prevention practitioners in companies,
different levels of governments, and lifeline services. The following effects are left for
future study:
- implications on sewage-system overflow, flooding of rivers (problems in
drainage when ashfall is followed by rain );
- estimated volume of ashfall that will settle on riverbeds (estimating the
probability of flooding) ;
- effects of volcanic ash on wireless communications and radio waves;
- effects of volcanic ash on water quality;
- effects of volcanic ash on outdoor precision equipment and automobiles
and other machinery;
- effects of volcanic ash on boilers and combustion systems (since ash
affects airplane engines); and,
- indoor pollution by volcanic ash and its effects on precision equipment
indoors.
It is, strictly speaking, important to conduct empirical studies in engineering and physical
science on these topics, but apparently not too much has been done in this area. When
more is known about these topics, the present scenario of ashfall damage equivalent to
that in the Hoei Eruption could be further refined."
Start Drilling (Score:2)
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The deepest holes man has drilled were around 12 km. or 40,000 ft. and of a tiny diameter. Drilling near hot magma is going to melt the bit before it gets anywhere near puncturing the wall of rock containing it.
8th Angel (Score:2)
World Economic damage. (Score:2)
Being cold and analytical here about primary effects (I know there would be tremendous deaths and human suffering) if it happened within the next year or so, this would probably put the world into a worldwide recession or depression. The American economy is recovering, but very weakly. Europe is on the skids, and China is slowing fast. If Japan's economy was broken for any extended length of time, it would easily push us over the brink into a worldwide skid, causing tremendous secondary human suffering all
MegaPascals? (Score:2)
Program Fuji;
var pressure : longint;
function Get_Pressure : longint; := 1700000
Begin;
Get_Pressure
End;
Procedure Blow;
Writeln("boom");
End;
Begin := Get_Pressure;
pressure
if pressure > 1600000 Then
Blow;
End.
(* been around 20+ years since I last used Pascal. Does this even compile? *)
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Keep the mentos away from it.
Re:In Olde English units (Score:5, Informative)
Pressure vessels get increasingly difficult to build as their size grows.
When a 150 PSI compressor tank goes (and they do, even though they are made out of steel, a lot thicker than a soda pop can) they take away the room with them.
This pressure vessel is probably miles on a side, and the walls don't have good tensile strength - it's just gravity that's holding it down.
In short converting it to Olde English units doesn't help.
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How exactly do they measure the magma pressure?
I looked through this whole page on volcano monitoring techniques [oregonstate.edu], and it never mentions monitoring the pressure.
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Last I had looked it up, they measured height variation, and with an estimation of the size of the magma vessel and the expected overhead mound of rock/dirt they would evaluate what kind of pressure was required to obtain the difference.
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Yes, they good boom very nicely
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bU-I2ZiML0 [youtube.com]
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1.6 MPa = 232 psi (pounds/sq in). High, sure, but within the level you can contain in a soda pop bottle
Would this explain the Chinese military's program to develop a really big Mentos?
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But hey, if the historical record teaches us anything, it
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Now pressure itself doesn't mean squat until you multiply it with a surface area and get a force.
But again it is rather meaningless until you compare it with what is containing it, in this case it will be the earth surface, p
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Normal atmospheric pressure is about 100kPa, so that was clear to many of us anyway.
(For some reason they use millibars on the British weather forecasts (here), which is metric but not SI. 1000millibars === 100kPa. The weather today [bbc.co.uk] is 1023mb)
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rgb
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Jumped in before I could comment that 16 bar (16*10^5 Pa) is indeed around 16 times 1 bar (near as makes no difference to 1 atm.)
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I love looking up an mid-18th century phrase so I can understand a 21st century article about an active stratovolcano that last erupted at the beginning of that18th century.
You didn't know what a tenterhook was either unless you were/are a historic actor fuller specialist or a Chris Mars fan. (A what who when?)
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Re:how do they know (Score:5, Insightful)
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assuming rocks were the same size as today. i believe rocks grow an inch in diameter every year, due to the sun's effects on the rate of radioactive decay
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I think Seattle is far enough away to just get ash fall. Tacoma, Puyallup, and Sumner on the other hand, are directly downstream and are going to get BURIED by the lahars coming off the mountain. A few small towns and a lot of recreational area are going to get hammered by the pyroclastic flows.