A Mathematical Model For a Spreading Zombie Infestation 121
cloude-pottier writes "What do you do when zombies attack? Turn to a mathematician to come up with a model for the spread of a zombie infestation, of course! Students at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa have published a paper in a book titled Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress detailing how to model the spread of a zombie population and various complications in managing the spread of the infestation. They even give humans a fighting chance in some cases! The original paper (PDF) can be found at their professor's website."
Been done by computer scientists already (Score:5, Informative)
Prior art: http://kevan.org/proce55ing/zombies/ [kevan.org]
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
It's hard to find a geekier programming topic than zombies. Maybe Star Trek. Or the Babylon 5 space fights (you know, the one where you obey Newton's laws).
Re: (Score:2)
It was done already by one of the groups in a mathematical modeling course I took, too. And I'm sure they weren't the first to consider the problem. I suspect there's a ton of prior art here.
Re: (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2)
Heterogenity and stochasticity are very important in modelling. Diseases are far less likely to die out in a deterministic model, and you end up modelling infinitesimally small individuals which can still affect the disease, such as "atto-foxes" allowing the persistence of rabies (Mollison, 1991).
Space is important too, as predator prey cycles seen in deterministic simulations (which are fairly similar to an SI model) don't occur in a stochastic model, unless you include space, and then you only get localis
Re: (Score:2)
be more fun if some of the humans could get to tool sheds with chainsaws
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1, Troll)
None of the inhabitants are Barack Obama.
Re: (Score:2)
Oh, come on. How is it trolling to say that Obama could probably kill a zombie?
Sick of zombies (Score:5, Funny)
It's time that someone called for a moratorium (no pun intended) on zombies in the media.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
But its on digg, and therefore Slashdot is required to post it...
Maybe I'm trolling here, but it seems like a voluminous number of articles these days are already on diggs front page. Not sure whats so hard about finding new and interesting things to post.
Re: (Score:1)
But its on digg, and therefore Slashdot is required to post it...
Maybe I'm trolling here, but it seems like a voluminous number of articles these days are already on diggs front page. Not sure whats so hard about finding new and interesting things to post.
That's the point. It's not hard at all. Just check digg. :p
Re:Sick of zombies (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:2)
Actually, it's the other way around - we're saving the tastiest brains for the dessert.
Re: (Score:2)
You won't eat our eyes, at least, will you?
Re: (Score:1)
You're just jealous because none of them think your brain is worthy of eating.
Come on! How can you condone a creature for trying to survive? After all arenÂt they out the just after their next meal? They are not evil per se. Why all this talk about extermination and all... in ten year time (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8164060.stm) weÂll be able to lice in harmony! WeÂll just feed them these artificial brains! Imagine what cooperation can achieve! Imagine how the zombies can help us in case of disasters or helping in hazardous invironments!
Re: (Score:1, Interesting)
Except in this scenario: people obsess so much over how to protect themselves from zombie infestation that scientists, possibly working for the military or NIH, start working on serious protections from zombie-like scenarios. In order to realistically simulate cures and containment tactics, of course, one will need working models... But these tests will all be safely under the control of expe
Re:Sick of zombies (Score:5, Interesting)
Outside of entertainment, Zombies are a metaphor for social unrest. When I was house shopping, my girlfriend asked me what criteria I was using to evaluate properties. I explained that there was price, location, condition, number of bedrooms, yard space, parking, garage space, and defensibility in the event of a zombie holocaust. She thought that I was joking with that last one. Then I explained that I wasn't talking about movie zombies. I was talking about small to medium sized groups of attackers in the event of widespread social unrest. If the economy goes south and we have people robbing and looting, how well can I defend this property? The house that I eventually chose wasn't the highest on the zombie defense mark, but it was in the top third.
LK
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Sounds like the train of thought the Militia type in Michigan go through.
Or shopkeepers in Los Angeles.
Or anyone who's aware of events that took place in the 1960s.
LK
Re: (Score:1)
Or any of us who watched TV in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina.
LK
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Well, in that case, get a house that's in the middle of a thick forest, as far from any civilization as possible. You can't defend a house in urban areas, not only because there's too many attackers and widespread fires but also because there's no source of food or water in the case of social meltdown. O
Re: (Score:1)
Well, in that case, get a house that's in the middle of a thick forest, as far from any civilization as possible. You can't defend a house in urban areas,
Compromise my friend. Suburbs. My neighbors are far enough away that a fire at one of their houses will not easily spread to mine. I live in an area that could be defended by a handful of motivated individuals. Rioters or looters would simply move on to easier prey.
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Not too thick a forest. You need to be able to see people approaching, and not provide assailants with cover within range. As ultranova points out, a typical residential house in an urban or suburban area is not defensible over the long term. My emergency plan involves a little place in the North Ga. mountains - limited approaches, fresh water, good hunting and arable land adjacent, and you can't find it unless you know how. Google Maps and Mapquest will both get you totally lost.
Funny, my survival plan involves following somebody like you to his survival house and killing him once he shows me where everything is hidden. :)
Re: (Score:1)
<p>Funny, my survival plan involves following somebody like you to his survival house and killing him once he shows me where everything is hidden.
Good luck finding someone smart enough to have a good contingency plan, yet dumb enough to show all his secret holdouts to a stranger. That's a fine line.
Re: (Score:2)
Funny, my survival plan involves following somebody like you to his survival house and killing him once he shows me where everything is hidden. :)
Good luck finding someone smart enough to have a good contingency plan, yet dumb enough to show all his secret holdouts to a stranger. That's a fine line. :)
You're right, I'm going to need breasts and a sex change...
Re:Sick of zombies (Score:5, Funny)
FREE O.J.
Where? And do we need to bring our own cups?
Re: (Score:2)
It took me about a minute to get that.... and then a few more to get the ice tea off my monitors :)
Re: (Score:2)
I second your usage of 'zombies' but I think there is a darker side to it... I wind up on various libertarian/survivalist/gun-related forums every now and then trying to find obscure information (how to remove front post sight from AK-47, for example. Innocent little things). Something I noticed, and it took me a while, is that 'zombies', for them, is a euphemism for minorities.
Now, there is a distinction here- You and I using it as a euphemism for civil unrest and they using it for civil unrest of dark peo
Re: (Score:1)
This must be a recent phenomenon, I spend a fair amount of time on survivalist forums back in the mid 90s. The thing that stands out most in my mind was the advice I gave some people on avoiding lice. The reason it stands out is that there was a typo in my post and for some reason it was copied and mirrored all over the place. If I'm really inclinedBeing that I am a member of a minority group, I'm sure that I would have noticed such usage.
I see "Urban" as being an accurate representation of a certain segmen
Re:Poor realtors... (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
My main concern is actually protecting against robbery rather than armed defense of my property. What we actually bought is reasonably secure; people won't be able to just walk into our property.
You bought Mordor? Dude, doesn't work. Last owner had a valuable gold ring vandalized by two short guys with body hair issues and their freak friend.
Re: (Score:2)
people won't be able to just walk into our property.
You have a moat, I take it?
Re: (Score:1)
There's an easy way to deter burglary. Dogs. Even little dogs make enough noise to alert you to unwelcomed visitors.
LK
Re: (Score:2)
A better way to deter burglary is to remove the motivation for burglary, but that would most likely mean additional taxes for job training programs, decent housing, etc. for potential burglars as well as additional police services and equipment for the police. In the end, however, you and the other guy would both be better off in this scenario. It ends up increasing your standard of living and is cheaper than other methods when you help the other guy out as well.
Off the top of my head, moderate scale riot
Re: (Score:1)
A better way to deter burglary is to remove the motivation for burglary, but that would most likely mean additional taxes for job training programs, decent housing,
I'm all for job training programs, employment assistance programs and housing assistance programs. I think we should be doing all of that. Even so, there WILL be people who don't want to do it that way, they will want to make their living as parasites on others. Like it or not, these people are the reason why you shouldn't leave your doors unlock
Define... (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1)
I have enough. All of the guns in the world will be useless if the structure you're defending has blind spots that attackers can use to get close.
OK, we'll delve a bit into make-believe here just because I enjoy that sort of thing. The vast majority of damage done by a high velocity rifle bullet, like a .308, is the result of hydrostatic pressure. Basically the water inside of a body transfers the force of the bullet to the surrounding tissue. That's not an issue for zombies. They don't drink water, but the
Re: (Score:1)
I've taken some time to think over your question. I belive that the shotgun would be a far more effective weapon against the undead for the following reason(s)...
The shot pattern, especially with a properly choked barrel will allow for better saturation of the neck/head area per shot. Any one of the pellets penetrating the skull would inactivate(not really "kill") the zombie. Because an older one would be more dessicated, the flesh would pose less of an obstacle. Dry bone is brittle, there is even a possibi
Re: (Score:1)
That's because the democrats are in power.
Yeah uh.. this has what to do with anything?
It's time to break out the vampires movies and stories.
No, as much as I hate to say it, we're getting vampires as the Next Big Thing because of Twilight.
Re: (Score:2)
That's because the democrats are in power.
Yeah uh.. this has what to do with anything?
There is a frequently referenced correlation between the political party in power and the popularity of vampires or zombies. Source: [signonsandiego.com]
Re: (Score:2)
I refuse to accept anything that "sparkles" in sunlight as a true vampire.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Zombies and Vampires, and maybe some others. But one thing that makes zombies the most overused cliche evah is that ALL these zombies are just a subset of Night of the Living Dead's zombies. The whole sudden lunges, eat brains, massively multiplying zombies trend ignores Zombies as they used to be in film and print fiction before Romero. The only films I can think of offhand that portrayed old fashioned Zombies after NotLD is the two Phil Lovecraft Private Eye movies made for HBO - "Cast a Deadly Spell" and
Re: (Score:2)
Fortunately, a silly concept like "zombies" is not the only application for this theory. As far as I understand things, it should work perfectly well to simulate the much more realistic spread of an infection of Borg nanoprobes in a society as well.
Hum.... (Score:2)
Oblig. (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Oblig. (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Probably more appropriate: http://xkcd.com/348 [xkcd.com].
Oh please .... (Score:2)
Zombie Modelling (Score:2, Insightful)
Interesting, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2, Troll)
Until we manage to create real zombies and release them on the population, we'll never be able to test the model.
There are already three different test cases that have been released into the populace: teabaggers, birthers and deathers.
In all cases, mental activity is absolutely zero, yet they keep moving around, menacing the living, going after anyone who looks like they have a brain. The teabagger test case flamed out fairly quickly, the birthers took quit a bit longer, and the deathers are still going.
The
Re: (Score:1)
Rabid animals are probably the closest subjects in the real world for candidates of such testing.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Convergent serie (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
This goes well with similar work about vampires (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
If movie studios pick up on this (Score:1, Interesting)
...it should make zombie movies more interesting, not to mention more scary. Human brains (at least the ones not eaten by zombies) are usually fairly good at determining when something is logically consistent.
They're wrong... (Score:1, Informative)
If Shaun of the Dead (movie) is any indication, being aggressive and fast isn't the way to go about defeating hordes of zombies.
1) Relax, ignore them at first. Be completely oblivious, not knowing they're even around is useful.
2) Once they can't be ignored anymore, stand back a little and have a pleasant conversation with a friend about it if you have any left. Maybe throw a few vinyl records.
3) Don't try to survive by staying somewhere safe like a hi-rise flat, head to the nearest pub with easy to break wi
Noted... (Score:2)
In summary, a zombie outbreak is likely to lead to the collapse of civilisation, unless it is dealt with quickly. While aggressive quarantine may contain the epidemic, or a cure may lead to coexistence of humans and zombies, the most effective way to contain the rise of the undead is to hit hard and hit often. As seen in the movies, it is imperative that zombies are dealt with quickly, or else we are all in a great deal of trouble.
Hummm so the moral we should all take from this is if you are in an area with a zombie outbreak you should get the fuck out before the nukes start falling...
Good to know...
Ahhh the possiblities... (Score:3, Insightful)
The key difference between the models presented here and other models of infectious disease is that the dead can come back to life. Clearly, this is an unlikely scenario if taken literally, but possible real-life applications may include allegiance to political parties, or diseases with a dormant infection.
Did anyone else RTFA? Note the bold part... I always knew there was more to political fandom than met the eye. Apparently it involves your brain being consumed...
Or just wait until winter... (Score:2)
(Okay, yeah, tropical zones, waves of reinfection, etc. But there's a reason zombie movies always take place in the summer.)
Re: (Score:2)
Pass along to Obama (Score:2, Funny)
Re: (Score:1)
I prefer it if the government were drawing up a plan for dealing with zombie infestations.
Missing variables... (Score:5, Funny)
Unfortunately, after reading this study there seem to be several missing elements:
1. zombie speed and effectiveness. Are these 28 Days Later psycho zombies or Shaun of the Dead shambling loser zombies? And sure, they modeled an "encounter" but it's a simple one-on-one winner takes all. Any good zombistician knows most zombie encounters are between a small band of survivors and a horde. It needs to be modeled!
2. It appears that any individual can transition between the "Zombie" and "Removed" state. There needs to be a 4th (end) state: "Brains Splattered By Shotgun".
3. Bruce Campbell.
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun.
Re: (Score:1)
2.) Already there. Zombies can be 'killed' and then enter the Removed group, final defeat is modelled by the parameter alpha (page 3).
3.) Touché.
Re: (Score:1)
Z-Wars (Score:2)
Do you have your Redeker Plan ?
Senior author (Score:2, Informative)
The senior author is a professor at the university I attend--he is a super nice guy and does very interesting non-zombie related research too.
Let us (Score:4, Funny)
Consider a spherical zombie in simple harmonic motion...
There are courses ... (Score:1)
The Lucifer Effect: How Good People Turn Evil (Score:1)
There is a great book called The Lucifer Effect: How Good People Turn Evil by Philip Zimbardo. The author was the guy who conducted the Standford Prison Experiment [wikipedia.org] a few decades ago. The book discusses that experiment and how it relates to other well-known acts of evil that have occurred, such as massacres during war, genocides, and abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib.
In the book, the author argues against the idea that some people are intrinsically good and other people are intrinsically evil. Instead, the ev
Spatial stochastic disease modelling (Score:4, Insightful)
Modelling a zombie outbreak?
That's entirely similar to the work I've been doing for the last year, modelling the spread of a disease among an animal population. I've been trying to work out under what situations culling will lead to an increase in the number of infecteds.
So, if I name the particular species I've been working on "zombies", and adjust some of the parameters, I've got an SI model that is not only very similar to this, but also includes spatial structure and stochasticity, which is crucial for describing the stability of the disease, and modelling the spread when the population size is low.
Re: (Score:1)
That's because the model they use is pretty much the stock standard SRI (Succeptible-Recovered-Infected) infection model. They even say so themselves (while showing that their model contains an extra non-linear term, included via Mass-Action - another pretty common modelling "law").
Still, a fun application of stability analysis.
Now we know for sure... (Score:2)
Trivial mathematical modeling (Score:2)
Nothing scientifically interesting here. This is just basic 101 mathematical modeling, straight from the text book. They start with the most basic SIR model, building it from the elementary reactions and do the basic analysis: solve the equilibria and determine their stability with eigenvalues. They have just renamed the generic "infected" as "zombies". We did these calculations for dozens of different models as part of course exercises. For some reason, they don't do phase plane analysis, which is a very b
One of the best scenes... (Score:2)
One of the best scene in the film 'The Thing' (1982) was when the scientist realizes that they are dealing with an alien foe who can replicate and imitate other species. He rapidly writes a computer program and creates his own equations within it to accurately calculate, based his cellular observations of the alien organism, the best projection of how quickly the alien could take over earth's population should it reach mainland (they are stranded on an arctic base with the alien creature).
Below is the IMDB
but...it's wrong! (Score:2)
Problem. (Score:1)
Meh. Zombies are mostly a problem due to horror movie tropes like "running away never works", "the authorities are useless when it comes to anything important" and "nobody in the movie has ever seen a zombie movie". Chances are it wouldn't get beyond a small initial outbreak.
Even if they get established in a city, once the military gets called in, tanks and other armored vehicles will make short work of the milling throngs - if the "zombies are attracted to noise" rule is in effect, you could get them all b
Been there (Score:2)
What do you do when zombies attack?
Most people buy popcorn.
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1)
are about 7000/5 be on a wrong your spare timE parties, but here
Thanks, until I read your post the universe was starting to make sense. I'm going to go crawl into a corner and cry a little now.