WHO Raises Swine Flu Threat Level 557
Solarch writes "Late in the afternoon on Wednesday, the WHO raised the pandemic threat level for H1N1 "swine flu" to 5. Global media outlets(such as CNN, Fox News, and the BBC) preempted normal broadcast coverage and immediately published stories on their websites. To clarify, the WHO's elevation is mainly a sign to governments that the virus is spreading quickly and that steps should be taken on a governmental level to stage supplies and medicines to combat a possible pandemic. Unfortunately, broadcast coverage focused on phrases like 'pandemic imminent' (CNN marquee).
In other news, patient zero, the medical term for the initial human vector of a disease, has been tentatively identified in Mexico."
I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
WHO's on first.
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Costello: Well then who sets the swine flu threat level?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: I mean the group's name.
Abbott: Who.
Costello: The group that sets the level.
Abbott: Who.
Costello: The group that...
Abbott: Who!
Costello: I'm asking YOU who sets the level!
Abbott: That's the group's name.
Costello: That's who's name?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: Well go ahead and tell me.
Abbott: That's it.
Costello: That's who?
Abbott: Yes.
Costello: Look, you got a group that sets the level?
Abbott: Certainly.
Costello: Who?
Abbott: That's right.
Costello: All I'm trying to find out is what's the group's name that sets the swine flu level.
Abbott: No. WHAT is the Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group. [wikipedia.org]
Costello: I'm not asking you who's the Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group.
Abbott: Who sets the level!
Costello: I don't know.
Abbott & Costello Together: Third base!
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
You are all making jokes but you are missing the big picture. The WHO is an agency of the United Nations, and they *want* you to panic so they can take over your government! Haven't you people learned nothing from Deus Ex!?
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Kind of reminds me... (Score:4, Funny)
I call it weaponized bacon.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
WHO let the pigs out? (Oink, Oink, Oink, Oink)
WHO let the pigs out? (Oink, Oink, Oink, Oink)
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Clearly, you are one confused man.
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
WHOosh.
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Thanks for that. We Won't Get Fooled Again.
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Chalmers: "Well, Seymour, it seems we've put together a baseball team, and I was wondering, who's on first, eh?"
Skinner: "Yes. Not the pronoun, but rather a player with the unlikely name of 'Who' is on first."
Chalmers: "Well that's just great, Seymour! We've been out here six seconds and you've already managed to blow the routine!"
Re:I dunno? (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
We all know it's the VIRAL GPL (Genes of Pig Linux)
Please let it be!! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Funny)
> Would hate to die of Swine Flu, just because of what it's called... and all that it
> would imply if I caught it...
Then call it Mexican flu.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Now that's just insulting.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:4, Insightful)
How is it insulting?
The 1918 flu pandemic was known as the Spanish Flu because it was first widely reported in Spain. Other countries with earlier infections had been at war and were censoring news stories but Spain was not (In Spain it was known as the French Flu).
This outbreak was first recorded in Mexico so it makes sense to call it the Mexico Flu.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:4, Informative)
Fixed that for you.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
I wonder if by chance this will finally be the thing that will make them close our border down south?
You mean stop letting my coworkers and neighbors go down to Cancun so they can come back here and infect me and my children with swine flu? Excellent idea!
Oh. You were talking about the guys in front of the labor pickup area. Seen 'em. Don't talk to 'em. Don't drink with 'em. They're not a big health concern to me.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
You mean herpes is kosher, so they don't have to change its name?
You really have to be Jewish to realize what an idiot this guy is. But if you're not, you can sort of get the idea.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Sounds like a Mexican standoff with the religious party!
Doesn't scare me at all (Score:5, Funny)
The media can do what they will with this non-story.
I'm safe - I don't believe in that e-vo-lution crap, so this new disease could not have evolved from swine! It's all just pig nonsense.
I'm going back to prepare a round of raw bacon sushi!
Re:Doesn't scare me at all (Score:4, Interesting)
Sigh...
If only this were just funny.
I actually had this conversation with a friend a year ago or so. Of course, they didn't express a desire to relish in raw pork. And it was related to the Bird Flu. But pretty much dead on the same.
Their reasoning was that Bird Flu wasn't going to be an issue because it couldn't "evolve" the ability of human-to-human transmission because... evolution was a bunch of nonsense. And the media had lost interest by that time so my friend thought it had all just been overblown.
But H5N1 (Bird Flu) hasn't gone away at all. This H1N1 (Swine Flu) may be bad; it may not. But even if it has low mortality rate, if it spreads quickly far and wide, it may increase the chance H5N1 picks up human-to-human. That would be very bad indeed.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
On a side note - I didn't write it to be funny, I wrote it to make a point.
Sometimes the best way to make a point, though, is to be funny about it. Witness Stephen Colbert.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm [cdc.gov]
Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160ÂF kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.
Thanks for tanking the pork prices with your misinformation though. Lots of pork for me to eat!
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160ÂF kills the swine flu virus
Good! now I know what to do if I get swine flu!!
... oh wait
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Insightful)
The saying is "If it bleeds, it leads" as in leading story.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:4, Funny)
Would hate to die of Swine Flu, just because of what it's called... and all that it would imply if I caught it...
You're thinking of Swine Syphillis.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Interesting)
Yeah, there's certainly a section of the media that wants terrible news to happen. I don't think they consciously or overtly want stuff to happen, but deep inside, I do think that part of them does.
I think it's partially human nature though. I've found myself sort of bugged at times by part of me that wants a war to break out, or a pandemic to happen, or the stock market to tank, etc. I think it comes from oftentimes looking at news as fiction that happens far away. And for the most part it's true. If a war breaks out in Africa, for instance, for the majority of North Americans or whatnot, it may as well be fiction for how little it actually affects them.
tldr; When it doesn't directly harm them, IMO, people often look at news as fiction, and want a more exciting outcome.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Insightful)
Back when there was this method called "investigative reporting", there would be crazy things going on all the time, and yet exposing them actually brought improvements.
Today, "investigative reporting" means blowing trivial and menial things completely out of proportion, asking non-experts their oppinions, and twisting experts words into doom and gloom. It's pathetic how hard these people work to do nothing.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Informative)
I think it's partially human nature though.
They call it Schadenfreude http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude [wikipedia.org] and there is a lot more of it in the world than one would like to believe.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Insightful)
I agree with you to a degree, there certainly is a human element that enjoys other people's suffering. Not too complex though, it makes us feel better in comparison. :)
What I meant though, to use an example, is having part of you wish a destructive news event to occur, more for entertainment purposes.
To use an example, back in 2003, (when I was 15) I was a strong supporter of the Iraq war. I made all sorts of justifications based on human rights, WMDs (laugh all you want), Saddam being a dick, etc. The real reason I supported the Iraq invasion in '03 is because I wanted to see a war take place, I wanted exciting footage of missiles hitting Baghdad, I wanted propaganda from both sides, I wanted maps on Wikipedia with how much each side held. Part of me was even disappointed when Baghdad fell quickly. I wanted to see a nasty battle.
Criticise me as a deranged sociopath all you want, but treating the news as entertainment is far from limited to me. Most people dress it up with other reasons though, like I did. The difference is that because I was 15 at the time, I didn't really hide my true motives for supporting the Iraq invasion very far, knowing the whole time I really just wanted a big expensive exciting war drama to be broadcast over CNN.
And for all it affected me at the time, (15, Canadian, knew no Americans, let alone military personnel.), it may as well have been a war movie. Being older, (hopefully) more mature, and knowing several people who have served in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, perhaps my opinion would be a bit different, but at the time, Iraq may have been a war movie to me, and good entertainment.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Funny)
Just make sure you don't get caught downloading the iraq war. With all the money they put into it, I don't think they'd be happy to find it being torrented.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Informative)
It wasn't a natural disaster, wasn't an accident, wasn't even a war. It was a big...
The term you're looking for is blowback [wikipedia.org].
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:5, Funny)
Don't kid yourself, slashdot-netizen, chances are you don't get enough human interaction or even sunlight to risk infection. You're as good as immune.
Re:Please let it be!! (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Leftover Bush Fearmongering plus some reality (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
LOL... Right, it's because they discovered it wasn't a video game - not that it became evident that the justification was mere pretense.
The who (Score:5, Funny)
""Late in the afternoon on Wednesday, the WHO raised the pandemic threat level for H1N1 "swine flu" to 5."
Wow. I knew they had good music but I did not know Peter Townshend was in charge of changing pandemic threat levels.
Re:The who (Score:5, Funny)
If Spinal Tap was in charge the pandemic threat level would go to 11.
not easy to know how to respond (Score:5, Informative)
As for me, being young and healthy, looks like I'm about to roll one of my d20 [slashdot.org]. Whatever happens happens, I'll enjoy it to the end.
Re:not easy to know how to respond (Score:5, Insightful)
That's not really the right comparison to judge a "problem" with the course of action. It would clearly be, in retrospect, the wrong decision if more people died of the vaccine than would have been expected to have died from the flu had the vaccination not been carried out, but the fact that more people died of the vaccine than died of the flu when the vaccination was carried out does not appear to be a valid basis, on its own, for criticism.
Otherwise, a vaccination program that prevented all deaths from a disease (even if, unchecked, it would have been expected to kill billions) would be the wrong decision if even one person died from the vaccine, a result that is clearly ludicrous.
Just a distraction (Score:5, Funny)
Bah, we all should know this "swine flu" is actually a well orchestrated distraction from our real threat.
ZOMBIES!
Fear not the Swine Flu pandemic. Fear instead the imminent Zombie pandemic.
Unless of course this is just phase 1...
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Unless of course this is just phase 1...
Yeah, I'm afraid you have - Pink Eye. I'd give you topical medicine, but I don't wanna touch ya.
Just what is a pandemic? (Score:5, Insightful)
in the US alone there are An estimated 100,000 hospitalizations and about 20,000 deaths occur each year from the plain old flu or its complications... so what is the big deal?
Re:Just what is a pandemic? (Score:5, Insightful)
From what I've read the fears over this one are that so far it is killing a lot higher percentage than the flu normally kills. This flu also seems to kill a disproportionate number of people in the 20-50 age rage. Normally flu deaths are mostly confined to infants and the elderly.
From a pure numbers standpoint it's not so bad. What's scary is the similarity to earlier flu pandemics. No one's really sure how bad this may get, so people are taking extra precautions.
And some just don't understand. (Score:5, Interesting)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/egypt-orders-slaughter-of-all-pigs-over-swine-flu-1676090.html [independent.co.uk]
Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precautionary measure against the spread of swine flu... Agriculture Minister Amin Abaza told reporters that farmers would be allowed to sell the pork meat so there would be no need for compensation.
Yeah, what's the price of pork in a vastly flooded market. Other stories on the subject report riots by the pig farmers and also note that the WHO says that you can't catch it from eating pork. This is more a case of the non-pork eating religious majority using this as an excuse to crap on the pork eating religious minority (and 'unclean' pig farmers.)
Who? (Score:4, Funny)
From a Hot Zone (Score:5, Interesting)
Allow me to explain my bias before embarking on this rant: I currently attend University of Delaware. At present there are 10 unconfirmed cases among the student body. Not a big number (total student number is ~13,000), but diseases do have a tendency to spread quickly among student populations.
What bothers me about this isn't that people are overreacting, which they are to a large extent. I don't feel the need to wander around with a surgical mask and I'm right in the middle of a hot zone. Rather, what bothers me is that people are underreacting. There seems to be a knee-jerk reaction that says that swine flu won't cause any sort of devastation; that it's not something to worry about.
The fact of the matter is that while they're probably right, there's no reason not to take simple precautions. So long as this is going on, I'll make sure to was my hands with soap and water after using the bathroom, to try to avoid sick people, and to go to health services if I start showing flu-like symptoms. On the other hand, I hear plenty of people at school saying that they don't care, that if they get it it's "just the flu." I see a lot of people here on /. saying that this is just a media circus and just for drug companies to capitalize on. Maybe you guys are right, but what if you aren't?
As I said, I'm biased since I'm in a hot zone, but I'd rather be safe about this than contract it.
Re:From a Hot Zone (Score:5, Insightful)
So long as this is going on, I'll make sure to was my hands with soap and water after using the bathroom
I hope that you continue your newly found routine even after this has gone on.
Swine Flu (Score:5, Funny)
Governments are already taking huge action (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
There you go again (Score:3, Funny)
Still Unknown Case Fatality Rate (Score:5, Interesting)
1) more than 1% .1% to 1% .1%
2)
3) less than
We still don't know which range we're dealing with and, uh, like, it matters.
All it would take is to focus on a standard sample like Mexico City hospital interns, process their swabs STAT and count the deaths so far.
Seriously, folks, where are the adults?
This is how it always starts.... (Score:5, Funny)
This is how it always starts... [photobucket.com]
It's OK, pandemics are natural (Score:4, Funny)
As a bonus, it's "green". Anyone who succumbs to this will naturally reduce their carbon footprint.
I've seen this episode... (Score:5, Funny)
The Dr and Rose appear on a spaceship cunningly disguised as a planet only to find there's a mysterious disease that's killing spectacularly low numbers of people who all happen to live in the same city. Normally he wouldn't worry about it but Rose manages to get infected so the Dr raises the threat level to OMG. He works night and day to find a cure only to be forced to infect himself, die from the disease, but not really as his seemingly magic, but really explainable in materialistic terms, Time Lord powers cause him to regenerate in the form of Tom Baker.
He draws some of his own blood with his sonic screwdriver and, treats Rose, who makes a full recovery. As a gesture of good will, and for the episode to end on a relative high note (despite Tom Baker's haggard appearance), he takes the TARDIS into a low "earth" orbit and sprays the serum into the jet stream, thus curing and inoculating most of the world. The Dr and Rose leave for better times.
Just moments later the Vogons appear and destroy the world to make way for hyperspace bypass.
On the bright side (Score:3)
On the bright side, due to the colossal stupidity of the public, pork prices are droping.
In down times it is good to have some cheap meat products at the store.
Pork, its what's for dinner. :)
Terrible name (Score:5, Funny)
Swine flu is a horrible name.
I'm going to call it "bacon lung".
Everything's better with bacon.
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:5, Informative)
Actually, the virus strikes people with healthy immune systems, and the causes of death are an immune system overreaction. Translated: People with excellent immune systems are more likely to die than those with weaker ones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:5, Interesting)
And this is the ONLY real story here.
If this is an average flu season at least a couple dozen kids in the US have died already from the standard A/B/whatever strains vs 1 for the swine flu.
I'll leave you to figure out i gave an very conservative guess according to the CDC. Mexico i have no clue.
It is still much more dangerous to cross the street for lunch, how about a banner to Stop for Pedestrians :(
Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Informative)
Actually, the virus strikes people with healthy immune systems, and the causes of death are an immune system overreaction. Translated: People with excellent immune systems are more likely to die than those with weaker ones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm
ACTUALLY, you should read the article you're citing:
Recent reports of high mortality among healthy young adults in the 2009 swine flu outbreak has led to speculation that cytokine storms could be responsible for these deaths.[6] However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) has indicated that symptoms reported from this strain so far are similar to those of normal seasonal flu,[7] with the CDC stating that there is "insufficient information to date about clinical complications of this variant of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection."[7]
Most of the deaths have been young adults (Score:5, Informative)
Most of the deaths reported in the press have been non-elderly adults, as opposed to the regular flu where 90% of the deaths are already-sick old people and the rest are mostly kids who are too young for flu shots. Until the latest news articles (which said that "150 deaths" was "maybe actually only 7-8 confirmed to be swine flu"), the number of deaths from swine flu was about 1% of the total number of regular-seasonal-flu deaths during the past week.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Aaand clarifying before justified downmods:
It kills healthy people, more of them thus far than ill people. And it's rather obvious why it hasn't killed much people in the last 30 years - if you don't get that, get the hell outta my Slashdot and your ass into Biology 101.
It's not yet confirmed it's cytokine storm precisely - but it's certainly a possibility on the table.
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Interesting)
IMHO, it is several months too early to definitively conclude that this attacks healthy people harder, whether by cytokine storm or otherwise. Right now, all the people getting hit are young people because this is the very first wave of the illness. People who are most mobile and most social are most likely to be exposed first, so that's who we're seeing getting sick right now.
Almost all the people in the U.S. who have gotten sick are schoolchildren, but that's because they are the most mobile, once again. If you look at that in isolation, you might erroneously conclude that school-aged people in the U.S. are more vulnerable, when in reality, they were merely the first to be exposed.
Only when you look at the data over a long period of time in aggregate can you say for certain that it hits younger people harder. In a few months, if the pattern holds, then we know this resembles bird flu in its behavior. Initially, though, it could just as easily be blamed on mobility, greater probability of living alone (and not seeking health care early enough), or any number of other causes that have nothing (directly) to do with age.
The more interesting question, IMHO, is why there have been no U.S. deaths yet except for a small Mexican infant visiting this country. There are several possibilities:
It's way too early to say much about this so far. Right now, there's a lot of speculation and precious little accurate data.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Only the extremely ill, old, young, and those with compromised immune systems will have a problem in more developed countries where antiviral medicine is available.
Wow. You have just far too much faith in the governments of the world, and medicine. First of all there's not enough antiviral flu medication for everyone if the virus spreads to a large percentage of the population (not to mention infra-structure to distribute all of it, care for everyone, etc). Secondly, the flu mutates like crazy. The viru
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Insightful)
Wow. You have just far too much faith in the governments of the world, and medicine
****
We've had one death so far in the U.S., and it was a baby. Two of the drugs that we do have available are effective, and I heard that there are roughly enough of those two to treat 30-50 million people in the U.S.
My comment wasn't about the people in the richer nations being so much better off so much as it being a commentary on the sad state of affairs where the poor get hit the hardest, like they do pretty much any time a disaster happens.
I don't have much faith in governments, but those populations without ANY modern medicine at all are going to suffer a large number of deaths. Be it from overactive immune systems or compromised ones - both extremes seem to be a problem in these sorts of situations.
In India, you have millions of people who are so poor that they burn garbage to keep warm. When droves of them start dying, secondary diseases and epidemics become a real worry as well. No, not everyone in India is like that, obviously, but with nearly a billion people all living in a pretty close proximity to each other, it's not likely that things will be good, either.
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Interesting)
God I love my immune system and genetic oddities. I'm one of the few people that has the natural genetic resistance to HIV (descendant of Black Plague survivors) and my immune system is so strong I haven't touched a flu shot in over a decade and rarely get sick to begin with.
I won't need to be rich to survive! I just keep up my filthy habits that reinforce my immune system and laugh at the rich that need medication. As George Carlin said quite accurately: "Tempered in raw shit."
Yes, I used to play in sewers, quite often. Blowing shit up and hearing the reverberations go for minutes was a fave pasttime.
Evolution in action, folks. Watch closely!
Um, no. (Score:4, Informative)
One of the remarkable facts about this outbreak is that the deaths in Mexico are primarily among healthy adults between 20 and 50--similar to the profile of the Spanish flu of 1918. However, one of the yet unresolved puzzles about the virus is why the mortality figures in Mexico are proportionally so much larger than in the USA, so yeah, we just don't know what's going on yet...
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Quite possibly genetic.
It is well known that people in equatorial regions have a genetic "resistance" to malaria, but at the same time have a markedly increased incidence of sickle cell anemia. The trait that allows for one also allows for the other, but if your living near the equator, your better off with the malaria resistance.
What may be good for the goose, ain't always good for the gander.
As it applies here, there may be some genetic trait MORE common to the locals that provides them with some advantag
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Informative)
Not necessarily. The reason the 1918 version of H1N1 was so bad was that those with healthy immune systems were more likely to die because the immune system overreacted. You have a point about the antiviral medicine, but the other factors *favor* those in third-world countries.
Brett
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Informative)
This is likely somewhat inaccurate. The efficacy of SARS and the previous avian flus-- and of pandemic flus in general-- is that they cause the strongest human immune systems (18-30 yrs) to overreact and fill the lungs with fluid, slowly drowning the victims. (Antivirals are also not all that effective, versus respirators and manual techniques to clear the lungs).
We also don't quite know what we're up against, get.
That said, if the developing world looses its young and strong, that is in some ways worse. But don't think the developed world is out of the way: avian flu killed one in three victims in Hong Kong, right?
I'll repeat what I heard elsewhere (Score:5, Interesting)
"Citation needed."
Seriously, I see Internet doomsdayers saying this, but I don't see the CDC saying this. So, can you provide a link to a reputable source for this? I'm genuinely interested in reading one. If not, then perhaps you should stop spreading it.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Re:I'll repeat what I heard elsewhere (Score:5, Interesting)
Mod parent up. "Cytokine storm" is the new Internet meme lately.
With the grand WHO total of deaths being caused by H1N12009 being EIGHT, and the most well documented death so far being a 23 year old, the whole idea that this is killing otherwise healthy (a BIG assumption, this is Mexico, not the US, the health care system and environmental conditions in Mexico City is not very good in the former and absolutely terrible in the latter case) adults is isn't founded at all.
Re:I'll repeat what I heard elsewhere (Score:5, Insightful)
The WHO grand total of confirmed deaths is low because confirmation of which strain was involved in each specific case is slow. The actual number of deaths so far by the strain is almost certainly significantly higher. To put it more precisely, a large proportion of the cases that have been labeled as suspected swine flu deaths will turn out to be so.
Also, I don't think your Mexican health care and environment objection holds. Given no other data, you would expect that to increase the number of deaths, but not the distribution of deaths across age groups. You need a stronger hypothesis: that the poor health care in Mexico increases the risk of death from H1N1 disproportionately among young adults and middle-aged adults will die from H1N1, compared to children and the elderly.
The one thing that's sure at this point is that our information is quite likely to have very serious holes yet, however.
Re:I'll repeat what I heard elsewhere (Score:4, Funny)
Some doc posted some information on Boing Boing, they don't believe that swine flu is causing Cytokine Storms.
Info here [boingboing.net]
I think we'll be safe from an Aporkalypse.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Because flu viruses are particularly prone to spread (especially if it hangs around until fall and winter), and if it spreads like a normal flu in a normal season, and the high fatality rate keep up, and the , then it could be devastating.
Obviously, there are a lot of ifs in that statement. I'd guess that the fatality rate is partially inflated due to poor conditions in Mexico, uncertainties in diagnoses, and other factors; even 1% is pretty scary though. Also, given the time of year, I'd imagine we'll ha
CDC says bacterial secondary infection was killer (Score:5, Informative)
If you look at that CDC search, one article that jumps out is this one [cdc.gov], which says that based on later research, it looks like the big killer wasn't actually the influenza itself or related cytokine storms, but secondary bacterial infections causing pneumonia among people weakened by the influenza. That's actually fairly good news, because it's much more likely that we can treat those in a hurry with existing antibiotics (as opposed to waiting 6 months to get a newly-tuned H1N1 vaccine or using the increasingly-ineffective antivirals like Tamiflu), and because quarantine also reduces the spread of bacterial infections so people who do get the flu are less likely to get the secondaries.
Re:CDC says bacterial secondary infection was kill (Score:3)
And as I've been saying, it's extremely likely that people with those secondary problems seek attention. And we have a ton of options to treat pneumonia and asthma in the U.S. and Europe. So far, almost none of the 90+ cases in the U.S. are proving to be fatal. We are well taught to take drugs for any serious illness by now.
Too bad people in Africa, Asia, South America, and other places with a larger population that's more rural don't have the ability or access to deal with more than a handful of serious
1918 Flu Pandemic Vector was returning soldiers (Score:3, Insightful)
The vector that propagated the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic was soldiers returning from The World War, and people who were exposed to them, so young people with healthy immune systems were the primary people exposed to the flu, especially since they tended to be crowded together in barracks, ships, and trains where it could easily spread. So the fact that most of the deaths were younger people doesn't tell you as much as it might.
On the other hand, the world population is much more mobile than it was in 1918
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Reality check? (Score:3, Insightful)
Except that the US mobilized 4.3 million soldiers and 50 million people died of the flu.
Being crowded together could get all of those soldiers contaminated, but then each one of them would have to infect twelve other non-soldier people after being released from that togetherness.
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:5, Informative)
It it is most dangerous to those with strong immune systems because of the potential for cytokine storms
Which is pure speculation at this point. The truth is nobody knows why it's mostly killed young people so far. Pointing to a cytokine storm as the cause is possible, but very misleading.
Re:Semi-Pandemic (Score:4, Insightful)
Very true.
At this point we're just using hypotheses and another one that I just dreamed up is that ths strain needs a certain industrial polutants to be between certain points (sweet spot) for it to be lethal.
Since more people have caught it, and more people have died from it in Mexico, this is also plausible, since the polution levels are easily higher there than in the US and Europe.
I say plausible, but very unlikely, as I just came up with this halfassed idea. But if it ends up being true, I want credit!
Re:No evidence for "Cytokine Storm" (Score:5, Informative)
Please STOP spreading this racist, unfounded meme. While Mexico is a developing nation with a "poor" health care system, hospitals in Mexico City and elsewhere are modern, with up-to-date equipment and well-trained personnel. While pollution is a problem, not necessarily more so than in parts of New York City or LA, especially in the downtown zones under the new environmental rules. Significant advances in air quality have been made in the past 10 years, under AMLO and Ebrard.
There is no clear, obvious reason for a higher morality rate across Mexico, including and especially in the downtown Mexico City hospitals, than in the US.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
There is no clear, obvious reason for a higher morality rate across Mexico, including and especially in the downtown Mexico City hospitals, than in the US.
Well I heard that the hospital gowns in Mexico actually close in the back and cover the ass completely. If that isn't reason for a higher morality rate, then I don't know what would be...
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
It's not racist. Mexico City's infrastructure is not great on average, and it's MUCH more polluted than NYC or LA. This isn't a knock against Mexicans, it's a fact of life.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
it certainly is getting a lot of media attention
The media attention is due to zeitgeist, not anything in particular about the bug. We live in uncertain times, and people are scared, but mostly they don't have anything to be scared OF.
The economy is burning, they're worried about losing their jobs themselves or that their spouse will, or that they won't be able to keep up with their mortgage or whatever. The economic meltdown is happening slowly, though, and it's hard for people to stay worried about it, s
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
I wonder if anyone in the history of the world has actually considered the times they lived in to be "certain"?
Re:Patient zero? Yeah, right. (Score:4, Interesting)
Mexico's response has been so disorganized they have no CLUE who "patient zero" is.
Yeah, the part I found especially interesting is, you've got this 5 year old with the swine flu, yet they test others in the town and it turns out this kid was the only person in town that contracted swine flu. Then they go and test the pig farm where they believe the kid may have contracted it from, and all the tests come back negative.
So you've got the original infection vector, but no identifiable source it could have been contracted from, and no identifiable recipients it could have been passed on to. Seems odd to me.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Smithfield is quite 'well known' for its intensive pig farming techniques, let me show you a few links
http://nationalhogfarmer.com/mag/farming_smithfield_draws_mixed/ [nationalhogfarmer.com] this is from an industry site not environmentalist hippies
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4035081.stm [bbc.co.uk] BBC report.
http://www.saplonline.org/pubs/Quarterly/07-56-04/07_56_4p1415.htm [saplonline.org]
Here's an extract from the third link.
"When biology student Dana Spinu and I visited Timisoara a few weeks before the Smithfield takeover, we found officials and
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
As soon as viruses or bacterias are exposed to a sun light and a fresh air they began to die or at least get weakened. Some can survive only seconds of such exposure.
We, who saw it in experiments at the microbiological laboratories, should bring this awa