The Dozen Space Weapon Myths 191
Thanks to Disowned Sky for finding a good debunking piece on space based weapon systems. Slightly disheartening, because I really want to have solar energy satellites that are also lasers. The article does a good job of looking further afield at nations besides the United States efforts in this area.
Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:5, Informative)
Well, here's The Space Review's take on it:
On another topic, the author makes a very good point about the 1967 Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. i.e. The same treaty that is credited with preventing the development of the Orion nuclear pulse propulsion vehicle. As item 9 points out, the Soviets had continued nuclear space development in violation of a treaty that had been signed specifically to prevent them from doing that. The Polyus ASAT Platform [astronautix.com] that was launched on the back of the first Energia in 1987 (and thankfully failed to make orbit) was intended to have nuclear weapon capabilities. The translations of the Polyus diagrams show that it would have carried "Nuclear Space Mines" to target and destroy missiles and satellites.
So much for that treaty.
Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:5, Insightful)
See, that's the beauty of nuclear weapons. Once you have them, other nations are really no longer in any position to lecture you about developing them -- unless of course they're willing to enter into nuclear war over it.
Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:4, Insightful)
This is far, far less of a concern in other parts of the world where citizen and martyr can be used interchangably.
A serious consideration in the US attacking civilian targets in Soviet Russia was that the civilians were not exactly taking an active part in government. Do you really think that even in the face of a nuclear attack on Israel there would be a massive US retaliation on civilian targets? Especially if the attacking force was a stateless body like Hizbollah? Further, if a post-attack retribution bill was introduced into the US Senate, would a majority vote to wipe Iran off the face of the earth? Or maybe just try to find a few important targets?
Iran has nothing to fear from a US retalitation, and we have spent the last 20 years proving it. We either stop them on the front end, or we will do
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Which brings to mind the important question: "What should we do if attacked domestically with nuclear weapons by a non-state a
The 13th myth (Score:2)
If the USA has the capability (which I'm sure they do) and the funding (debatable) then they have this stuff sitting up there. The USA has never believed in "playing fair" and will grab and hold military dominance in all spheres that it can - with or without treaties.
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As for the other oft-used argument (not yours) that they would not be able to reach their primary target (problably the USA), or could be countered by them -- getting the ability to target a nearby enemy (probably Israel) might persuade other nearby powers t
Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:4, Informative)
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My point is that even if you couldn't develop nuclear weapons using a civilian power program as cover, Iran would likely still want the program. It's a source of prestige, too. Iranians resent being seen as a th
Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, all of 'em.
It seems from the story, and just pragmatism, the best option is to hope the folks who have the best weapons are the most friendly types. If the cold war is any lesson, the people with the most freedom create the best economic engine, and thus in turn the richest state, and then in turn again, the best weapons.
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FTA:
"Well, there's no official acknowledgement of them--that proves they exist in secret" (as if the absence of evidence were transformed into evidence of presence).
If I recall, that the 'Russians' had weapons that weren't detectable nor acknowledged and that was the justification for many of the cold war ramp-ups in defence spending
Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:4, Insightful)
If I recall, that the 'Russians' had weapons that weren't detectable nor acknowledged and that was the justification for many of the cold war ramp-ups in defence spending (because they must have found some way to hide them from detection). That should have been a major cold war lesson. Sucks when the same logic is applied to US anti-sat weapons.
I'm not sure I follow your point, please elaborate. Are you arguing that the absence of evidence is evidence of absence? That's on approach guaranteed to be wrong when analyzing secret military projects.
Or that the USSR didn't have secret programs? We found just the opposite after the USSR collapsed - they were trying to keep up with us, on the B2 and other similar programs and wound up bankrupting themselves trying to do it.
Or that we don't have secret projects anymore?
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I'm saying that the US used the 'absence of evidence' verified 'they have something we don't know about' to justify their past military buildups, including 'Star Wars'/SDI. It is just ironic when the same logic is used on the US anti-sat program, as the article states "(as if the absence of evidence were transformed into evidence of presence)", the exact same stategy the US used against the Soviets.
The US taught the world that strategy, I guess the lesso
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First, that dismisses the current status of China... A huge economy, with very, very little freedom.
Second, it doesn't account for western Europe... They have plenty of freedom, and a very strong economy, but they are so loosely organized that they couldn't, and probably still can't, pose real opposition to a single large (totalitaria
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We're screwed.
If any lesson is to be learned from history, let it be this one: the most friendly types will always turn into the most unfriendly types given sufficient time. All those care-bears with nukes will eventually turn into politicians with nukes. The only question is how long we have left.
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Not true, unless you regard the U.S. as the only civilized country in the world. The majority of "civilized" countries lead a peaceful existence *due* to the fact that they pose no threat to their neighbors. As for the U.S., you may be right, but don't forget that you are rapidly losing your economic and military supremacy which will turn your (enforced) peaceful exis
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You are not taking a long enough view of history. It is the nature of mankind to kill his fellow man and take what belongs to his neighbor for himself by force. This is the one constant throughout all of history from the stone age right up until recent times which can be regarded as anomalous compare
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The situation would be something like this, Several of them would be deployed to hot spot areas. Some would be in patrol mode while other would be in standby mode. When we detect a launch, boom, it doesn't hit space and drops on the country that shot it.
It isn't like some peace loving country is going to just secre
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Simple!
--files this comment under K for "toy"
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I wonder how much money they waisted on building it before finding out that what they are doing couldn't be done? Notcie the tense there? In case your wondering, I'm under the understanding that they are doing exactly this.
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In reply to an AC who insinuated that we would need to weaponize space to implement a plan like this because a treaty with no enforcment is a treaty that has no effect. I then replied with
Were do you see a
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Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot! (Score:5, Informative)
1. To a foe, our ability, which he admits, to blind or jam satellites, might as well be the ability to destroy them. Literally destroying them is certainly worse from an environmental perspective, but tactically, blinding them is just the same in the middle of a war, and one certainly ought to expect other countries (including those with less military resources who feel threatened by the US) to attempt to gain the same tactical ability to deny satellite access.
2. "But the actual policy document makes no such claim and displays no such intent to ?deny? access." One of many blatantly false claims in this article. I did "actually read" the policy, and it states:
The United States considers space capabilities -- including the ground and space segments and supporting links -- vital to its national interests. Consistent with this policy, the United States will: preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space; dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so; take those actions necessary to protect its space capabilities; respond to interference; and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests
3. Space-based weapons *do* have a major advantage over ground-based ones: there is no boost phase. They have the potential to give *much* less warning and reaction time. Consequently, they're more destabilizing. It's the same reason why short range (tactical) ballistic missiles were banned: they reached their targets too quickly. Also, is he really so daft as to believe that the Bush adminstration *hasn't* been trying to create "usable" nuclear weapons? There's a new statement from an "anonymous administration official" (and sometimes named ones) every month or so about things like nuclear bunker busters and the like.
4. "Most discussions leave the impression the Russian system simply doesn?t exist." Undoubtedly, the author is talking about the S-400/A-135 network. It's certainly a threat to even our best warplanes (think a patriot missile battery on steroids, with a much longer testing history), but with the 100 km upper range for the biggest missile configurations (if memory serves), it's not going to be shooting down satellites, even low ones, any time soon.
5. "Equating a boost-phase anti-missile weapon (based at sea, on an aircraft, or even in space) to an anti-satellite weapon overlooks a fundamental design difference, their guidance mode." -- Apparently this person has never heard of THAAD. Not all of our systems are boost phase.
6. Yes, and the Istrebitel Sputnik was a response to the US's SAINT program ('60-'62). Was the SAINT program a response to anything? Not really. We discontinued it, but it was too late by then. We started it. Now, it was long enough ago that arguments about who started it are pretty moot, but still, if you want to pick hairs, like this person does...
8. "The enormous advantage of an orbital system (even if launched only hours or days before making its attack) is that simply by selecting a larger booster, the weapon can be sent into nearly any orbit of potential interest, at any altitude" -- No, that's the advantage of a ground-based system. Having to enter orbit is an extra delay and takes extra energy. The lowest-energy, fastest way to intercept a satellite at 400km? Be below it and launch 400km straight up. Being in orbit allows for incremental homing of the killer satellite, providing a simpler, more reliable, but slower kill. And who knows what he's thinking about when he writes about changing the orbit with "the moon's gravity". If he's talking about a lunar transfer orbit, he must be ignorant of the huge amount of time and delta-V needed for such a maneuver; it'd be foolish. If he's talking about the lunar perturbations of satellites already orbitting at GEO, that takes years. I have no idea what he's thinking. Anyone have any clue?
9. Very low o
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Russia is right to be pissed off with missile batteries in Europe and is rightly pointing that they have no other function but to sour Russia relationship with Europe.
These missiles provide sabre rattling capability for some political elements in the ex-Soviet block who are anti-Russian to the point where they would like to have a Hitler statue erected on their capital's main squares. While every military specialist is aware that such missiles will be usele
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Interesting you'd use this wholly self-contradictory excuse. If the US was continuing "Cold War politics" they wouldn't have shut down the strategic air defense system, which cou
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It's too vague, and the international community has every right to be concerned about it.
Remember, the US has an executive branch who interprets the phrase "The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended" to actually mean that the government does not need to provide a writ of habeas corpus to its citizens (see Alberto Gonzales' testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee, Jan 18, 200
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Funny thing. I posted a "yay, nuclear space drive!" post, and yet practically none of that thread is about nuclear space drives. In fact, it would seem that nearly the entire thread attempts to prove how "Bush [is] throwing away the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty like he did the Geneva Conventions". Heavy on anti-Bush comments, low on actual
My personal favorite (Score:4, Insightful)
Unfortunately, too many people use the "US does it" excuse to justify the nuclear proliferation of other countries (read: Iran). I feel this is an accurate counterpoint to such an argument.
Re:My personal favorite (Score:4, Insightful)
Um... That was the whole point of MAD. If one side did it, both had to do it to ensure no one used it. It may not be moral, but it is logical to create any type of weapons in response to the fact the other side has done so.
However, this in itself in the past was a benefit to the US because it can afford to build such technologies whereas the other sides could not afford it and simply force them into submission by outspending them. (See: Regan vs the Soviets)
Sure, Iran could make nukes, but economically they are pointless to them other than nuclear energy since using them would entail the extermination of 90 million Iranians by a US retaliation response. Besides... The could inflict more political damage and gain so much more with using proxy groups like Hezbollah than actively taking on the US directly in a nuclear arms race.
However, China on the other hand... Well, we are seeing for the first time in 50 years a nation that could soon simply outspend us on the military front.
At sometime in the 2020s to 2030s it won't be us chiding others for doing things because we did them but rather trying to justify our new weapons because "China had them first."
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China's military budget for FY2007 is about $44.94 billion. The US military budget for FY2007 is $532.8 billion. (source [yahoo.com]) Eventually, China may outspend the US, but they need about a 1250% increase to do so.
Um... That was the whole point of MAD. If one side did it, both had to do it to ensure no one used it. It may not be moral, but it is logical to crea
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I don't think you see the real point. They could only kill 10 million tops with a single hit in a single American city (unless of course they coordinated multiple attacks) and could possibly destroy Israel in a single blow or two.
Then the retaliation would result in again... 90 million Iranians dead. Followed by complete occupation of several million US soldiers that were drafted in a war that is supported by the American public (
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Israel is the target. It is unlikely they would go after the US until Israel no longer exists. Of course, they face MAD with Israel probably more than with the US, which brings me to my next point.
Perhaps, it is really what they want, but I can't really see how it provides anyone
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Mr Ahmadineshad invented a new version of MAD. What ever you do, either enough of us survive and will be really fanatic, or we all are dead. Lets just hope this doesn't work out.
PS: If suicide bombing really made military sense
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Iran has exactly a 0% chance of ever reaching near-parity with the US, needed for MAD.
Also, MAD went out the window with ICBMs (first-strike).
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See: Cuban missile crisis. Basically, the US says to Russia if they attack us we attack you do you really want them to be able to attack?
PS: When it comes to MAD it's not a question of "are you evil" but "are you sufficiently evil to be left alone".
Please, for the love of God (Score:4, Funny)
Overly Ideal is Bad in Any Case (Score:3, Interesting)
Overly ideal treaties, laws, bans, etc. are just bad.
While banning the militarization of space is a nice idea, it would be nearly as difficult to implement as the demilitarization of our oceans.
Existing treaties that are overly idealistic have had the bad side effect of limiting or halting the development of other projects (as mentioned before: Orion).
I say, militarize, it will happen, then defend. If the U.S. and Russia were to be the only ones to abide by a non-militarization of space, eventually, the other players, India, China, and Japan, will gain the supremecy in space and eventually on the ground. Space war will be the new air war.
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While the nuclear test ban treaty ultimately shelved Orion, launching an Orion-type craft from Earth is still a bad idea due to the resulting nuclear fallout.
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Orion would not have ultimately launched from Earth. SF (or Sci-Fi) writers in the 50's and 60's had nukular (sorry, just had to) rockets launching from Earth. Orion missions would have launched, conventionally from Earth to orbit (ferry), crew would have tansferred to the Orion vehicle and then nuke launch from space.
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Space war will be the new air war.
You mean, as in the old joke: One Soviet tank commander runs into a fellow tanker in a cafe in Paris. As they're waiting for their tea to arrive, the one asks the other, "so by the way, who won the air war?"
Controlling the skies is all well and good, but as the US Army is unfortunately (re-)learning right now, smart bombs and satellites can't hold ground, or win hearts and minds.
Who cares how new a technology is if it works? (Score:4, Informative)
But since the 1985 air-launch satellite intercept, a project cancelled by Congress (see "Blunt arrows: the limited utility of ASATs", The Space Review, June 6, 2005), there is no evidence that a new satellite-killer technology has been developed
So what? Who cares if no new ASAT technology has been developed if the old ones work just fine? The Soviet orbital ASAT program predated the US's F-15 ASAT program by over a decade, and it worked.
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If the program got terminated in 1985, that means the weapons left from it are at least 22 years old. It strikes me that there's a fair chance that few to none of them even work any more, and that we don't have any way to produce more on a moment's notice. This exact situation is discussed in Tom Clancy's book "Red Storm Rising", in fact.
However, there's another thing: the current US military wants weapons they can deploy as fast as possible (the TacSat prog
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Also the ASAT couldn't reach geosync so it wasn't useful for taking out most communications satellites.
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No ASM-135s? Sure, I'll buy that.
No Soviet killsats sitting around in storage waiting to be strapped to the top of a suitable rocket and launched into the proper orbit? That, I don't believe.
And in any event, activating a production line to build a few missiles isn't the same thing as "developing a new technology."
Terminating other sattelites (Score:4, Insightful)
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Do you have a source for that claim?
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"And because the atmosphere is less dense at higher altitudes, the debris is likely to stay in space a long time because it will not be slowed down by friction with the atmosphere, which causes it to lose energy and burn up more quickly. Debris created during the Chinese test is thought to have reached lower altitudes - about 4000 km - but is expected to stay in space for hundreds of thousands of years."
The line
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The line is unsourced, but IME, New Scientist is good enough with the facts to be usable.
Eek... New Scien
Well crap... (Score:3, Funny)
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Psssssssstttttttt... what do you think the Moon is? Huh? Huh? That's why there all these "conspiracy theorists" claiming the Moon landings were faked... wink, wink... nudge, nudge...
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Time travel is possible, and NASA has it (Score:4, Funny)
We now have proof that NASA and the US Military have it.
As clearly started in this article, from a guy in NASA, the US Military is talking about going back in time by 7+ years and put a missle defense system in Czechoslovakia.
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So does that mean that time travel is possible?
Item 5 is not a correct statement. (Score:2, Insightful)
Item 5 IS a correct statement. (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Item 5 is not a correct statement. (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm all for poking fun at tinfoil hatters... (Score:4, Interesting)
First, it says putting missiles in space is expensive and slow "Even planning a space-to-space attack can take hours or days or longer for the moving attacker and target to line up in a proper position."
But wait! The Soviets "demonstrated the high reliability of the operational Soviet 'killer satellite'". Not only that, but there is an "enormous advantage" to orbital systems.
Also "They could even use the Moon's gravity to surreptitiously slip into the high-altitude orbits of key US observation, communications, and navigation satellites." Only if the government continues to cut the junk-tracking budget, otherwise any "junk" moving strangely would be noticed pretty quickly. Also, based on the orbit of the junk that's been around since the dawn of the space program, the Moon's gravity does not cause sudden major orbital changes, and I would suspect that with no other propulsion, the Moon's gravity is not enough to prevent the orbit of a "stealth" satellite with no boosters from decaying.
Re:Not a contradiction (Score:2)
One sentence is talking about orbital weapons for ground targets. The other is talking about orbital weapons vs. other orbital targets. Those are very different scenarios and it makes perfect sense that orbital weapons would be a poor choice for some and a good choice for others.
Noy sure about this one... (Score:5, Informative)
Yes, it exists and has existed for decades, however, it was explicitely allowed under the ABM-Treaty [wikipedia.org]. The US was allowed to build such a system for North Dakota but I'm not sure if we ever followed through with that. However, a national system was what the treaty intended to prevent, which it did until we decided to withdraw from the treaty in 2002.
Safeguard (Score:2)
We did, in fact, build such a system [wikipedia.org]. It consisted of a bunch of nuclear-tipped SAMs, plus cueing radars, etc - 60's era technology was not sufficiently accurate to do anything but get the interceptor in the general vicinity of the incoming - hence the need for nuclear warheads. My impression is that the system wasn't considered very cost-effective.
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I think the larger issue with the Sprint missile system [srmsc.org] and its bretheren were the fact that they essentially required the U.S. to cripple itself with EMP in order to stop incoming warheads. The economic damage of a single EMP event above densley populated U.S. soil would have been devastating in the 1970s, but far worse today (we have far more unshielded electronics on which everyday life depends).
Now imagine thousands of EMP events,
The Cold War wrote (Score:4, Interesting)
The article is part fact and part of the same kind of tit for tat idiocy that brought and perpetuated the Cold War for over 40 years. "The Americans did this", "The Russians so totally did too" kind of crap that is this article is just painful to those of us who lived through the red scare bullshit of the Cold war. Not only that but the article tries to paint Russia as still being the Soviet Union. They talk about anti ballistic missiles being based in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is and has been independent since 1991. It leases the old Soviet manned rocket launching site at Baikonur to Russia, but it, along with the Ukraine and Byelorus destroyed all of its Soviet era nukes in the 90's, and no longer hosts any strategic Russian military equipment.
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The author jumps to the intercontinental missle scenario. If he bothered to look at a map he'd see that much of Russia (i.e. St Petersburg) is within range of intermediate range missles fired from European sites. With the Baltic states itching to join NATO and Poland already in the club I don't blame Russia f
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Shorter Space Review... (Score:5, Insightful)
This article is highly amateurish and just about content-free. Shorter "Space Review":
The Space Review: No they don't! (no citation given)
TSR: No they don't! (no citation given)
TSR: No they aren't! (no citation given)
TSR: So what, the Russians have the same capability!
TSR: Let's confuse the issue by only talking about boost-phase BMD intercept!
TSR: No they haven't! (no citation given)
TSR: Yes it did! (no citation given)
I stopped reading at this point. This whole article is nothing more than a fact-free propaganda screed. I can't believe Slashdot even bothered to post it... on second thought, yes I can.
Sean
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Basically the article is telling me there's no proof for either side of these claims. But it's just enough information to bring the conspiracy theorists out of the woodwork.
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You make a good point - where do the "myths" themselves come from? Is anyone really saying this stuff, or are these just convenient strawmen for the author to knock down? Some citations on the "myths" would have come in handy too.
Without any supporting evidence, this whole article is just some guy's opinion.
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How are you supposed to show that there is no evidence for a myth? Its a myth because there is not evidence.
Besides conspiracy theorists don't need evidence, they make stuff up, claim is fits their distorted view of reality and call it evidence; just check out the Electric Universe or Moon Landing Hoax.
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Sean
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I'm not sure if you're really that stupid, or if this is a troll.
Bullshit.
Citation: "1985 air-launch satellite intercept [project]"
But more than that, he wasn't ever claiming the US doesn't have them, just that claims are vastly exaggerated, and unsupported (in other words he's saying "no citation given").
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Oooh, "puerile ineptitude". Obviously I've tangled with the wrong anonymous internet guy! I was going to continue arguing, but my resistance has crumbled in the face of your determined (if ad hominem) attack!
Let me toss you a clue: if you're going to make an argument, particularly in a relatively formal setting like a magazine article, it's customary to provide some actual evidence for your argument. It's not the reader's job to go looking for it. You yourself might have made some more headway if you had
Fun with reality (Score:2)
Oh no? HAARP [alaska.edu] can, according to people who work for the project, and according to the person who first showed that this project was feasible, push portions of the atmosphere into space to a sufficient degree to interrupt satellites. I found out about this from a hi
Deadliest Space Weapon (Score:2, Funny)
Two Too Many (Score:2)
"Each Internet list must have only 10 elements."
"The title of each list of 10 elements must begin with "Top Ten...""
Cartoons eh... (Score:2, Funny)
i vaguely remember snoopy and woodstock launching a nuclear weapons platform into space to help stop lucy from pulling the football out from charlie brown
Does this mean my (Score:2)
Despite their being based on open source?
Heh, let's test them out on...what's under their orbit now?
Kansas?
Well, if we fry Kansas, the world may not hear of it for years.
Armchair Military Analysis (Score:2, Interesting)
All they need are nudgers, not explosives (Score:3, Interesting)
Some of his myths are either true or inaccurate (Score:2)
But the actual policy document makes no such claim and displays no such intent to "deny" access. The Russian anxiety, echoed on the editorial pages and in news stories around the world, is apparently based on some over-wrought page 1 stories in US newspapers, written by people too careless to actually read the original US document and subsequent official US government clarifications, or too eager to misinterpret it in the most alarmingly stark terms.[/quote]
The actual document clearly states,
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Yes, slanted articles are often like that. I wonder if the Space Review is an extension of the National Review.
> I predict many anti U.S./Bush screeds.
Congratulations on being the first to bring up Bush.
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That's what reporters are paid to do for us.
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Methinks you're smoking something (Score:2)
The costs are pretty much the same? I'd really like to see the cost analysis on that one. I strongly suspect that you pulled that "estimate" out of your nether regions.
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You will presume it exists anyway.
Not that I'm arguing with the rest, but... (Score:2)
This is true for certain kinds of satellites, but many (all?) spy satellites have some amount of manueverability, to allow them to image different parts of the globe, as needed. Even satellites with normally "stable" orbits will have thrusters for station-keeping that could be used to move them out of their "usual" orbit if they're threatened.
If you fire an interceptor missile at a spy satellite, I wouldn't be at a
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