Japan's 20-Year Plan for Space 263
rwven writes "Japan has just released information on their new space plan which will take them through the year 2025. Included in their plan are robots and nanotechnology for moon surveys as well as an eventual hydrogen powered mach-5 capable plane, a mach-2 capable passenger airliner and a manned mission to the moon. They will consider missions to mars and other planets after 2025. Space.com is also carrying this story."
Good for them! (Score:5, Funny)
Lowered cost? (Score:5, Interesting)
Cost reductions will only happen if there is significant competition from cost consious buyers. The space market will have to change a lot before that happens.
Re:Lowered cost? (Score:2, Insightful)
You make the assumption that airline flight is going to be cost driven with discounts and frequent flyer plans.
Cost reductions will only happen if there is significant competition from cost consious buyers. The airline market will have to change a lot before that happens.
Re:Lowered cost? (Score:3, Informative)
Yeah? Tell that to the oil industry....
Re:Lowered cost? (Score:2, Funny)
Real programmers type with 10 fingers: their left index finger and their right index finger.
Re:Good for them! (Score:4, Funny)
only downside is that we'll have to deal with the oversized Hello Kitty decals flying overhead
Screw Hello Kitty! I eagerly await the 500m wide advertisement starships flying overhead featuring hot Japanese babes a la Blade Runner! Imagine, though, all the auto accidents below as the world's Asian fetish types come out of the woodwork and gaze upward instead of forwards.
IronChefMorimoto
Re:Good for them! (Score:3, Funny)
I don't think the four of them that actually go outside will make that much of a difference. Especially since two of them don't even drive.
Cooperation (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Cooperation (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Cooperation (Score:2)
Re:Cooperation (Score:2)
"Although the likelyhood of Native Intelligence influencing the colonies ought to be decidedly less;-) "
Lol. In that regard you are indeed correct. But the complaint that we'll be too far away to correctly govern the coloney should still be a valid argument
Re:Cooperation (Score:2)
Re:Cooperation (Score:2)
Japanese are aggressive here (Score:2)
It looks to me that, perhaps, the major technologies are in place for a real space race. Personally, I'll place my bets on China.
Nanotech? (Score:3, Insightful)
I thought Nanotech was still in its infancy. What are they going to do, dump a bunch of buckyballs in a crater?
Re:Nanotech? (Score:2, Insightful)
Nanotech may indeed be in its infancy, but isn't that a good reason to plan ahead?
IIRC, Apollo was planned in the punched-card era. Compared to the beloved IBM 1138, my cellphone is practially nanotech.
Re:Nanotech? (Score:2, Funny)
Yeah, that sounds more like it.
Re:Nanotech? (Score:2)
Re:Nanotech? (Score:5, Insightful)
I thought Nanotech was still in its infancy.
Right, which is why they're developing it. In ten years, a human infant is no longer an infant. Of course, it remains to be seen whether nanotech can sustain a similar level of growth.
Re:Nanotech? (Score:2)
Meh. I dunno what's so "nano" about this "tech" if it grows to a level similar to that of a ten year old human infant...
Re:Nanotech? (Score:2)
Right, and like a human infant, you can't be certain if they're going to grow up to be a farmer or a jazz pianist.
Out of all the possible applications of nanotech, it's not possible to predict which ones will succeed and which will fail.
Will we be using nanotech in 20 years? I have no doubt. What we will be using it for? N
Spiral Development Might Be a Good Idea... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Spiral Development Might Be a Good Idea... (Score:3, Insightful)
Noble on paper, but thats not really how things are done. I grew up in a country [visittnt.com] where about 30% of the households had a landlline phone up until about 1998 (which is when I left)I went back in 2002 and about 80% of the had atleast one cellphone and even less people had landlines.
It isn't always neccessary to follow the line
Japan is a small island. . . (Score:5, Funny)
Robotic moon surveyors, indeed!
20 years!? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:20 years!? (Score:2, Informative)
Google Maps (Score:4, Funny)
Robots in space (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Robots in space (Score:2)
Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:5, Insightful)
Why should Asian space efforts go for "manned" space flights?
I love Star Trek as much as anybody but the human body is a very difficult payload to sustain. If Japan is going to do serious planetary exploration (...and I wish them well at this...) then the first step should be to define goals and discard things with a low payoff
Apart from publicity stunts and tourism (... which should be self-funding ...), what goals are served by putting humans on the moon or in cislunar space?
Robots can explore far more cheaply than humans, so for any particular amount of money, we can do more exploration with robots than with humans.
The idea that humans can make on-site decisions better than robots can is simply an artifact of time-scale. That is, while there is some necessary time-lag between a robot noticing a funny rock on Mars or Titan, reporting back to Mission Control on Earth, and then acting on directions ... so what? The robot is patient, doesn't sleep, and if properly powered doesn't have to worry about food supplies.
Like I said, I love Star Trek but until we get really, really serious advances in technology, lunar and cislunar exploration is more sensibly done with robots.
But I'd be interested in contrary views.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2, Insightful)
Other viewpoints include the utility of human decision making vs. silicon decision making. Today, and for the foreseeable future, it is superior.
For long round trip transmission you are right (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:For long round trip transmission you are right (Score:2)
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:5, Interesting)
>human decision making vs. silicon decision making
I certainly agree that 'artificial intelligence' has, so far, been an oxymoron
However, any really big project has to match its means to its objectives. The choice today is never human vs. silicon, but the appropriate mix of Human AND Silicon (SF fans cf Asimov's 'Robots of Dawn').
Let's get down to cases, in exploring, says, Mars or Pluto:
*Task: Map That World!
Orbitting Robots can do this already, much better than humans. While human photos of Earth from space may have a slight advantages as to artistic and sentimental value, if you need a photo for business purposes, isn't it usually from a robot satellite?
*Task: Land and Pick Up That Rock:
We can drop a couple hundred Rock-grabbing robots for the cost of 1 human. OTOH, if *I* get to be the person, I'd favor the human option. Otherwise, do I want to pay for 1 human to pick up a rock or for 100 robots to pick up 100 rocks?
*Task: Deal With Unexpected Event Involving Destruction of Explorer
Humans are better than robots at dealing with unexpected events that threaten to destroy them. So what? Apollo 13-class disasters have happened to several unmanned missions and no-one makes a movie out of them because no-one cares that much when a robot dies.
*Task: Deal With Unexpected Event Not Involving Destruction of Explorer
Now this is the canonical events for which SF fans cheer the human brain. "Look, a Face On Mars! Shall We Go Inside?"
In novels, the answer is "Yes" and we have adventures resulting in crowds of cheering women when we get home!!!.
In reality, here's what happens:
Astronaut: Houston, we've found a Lost Temple on Titan with a Beckoning Door.
Several Hours Go By
Houston: Ok. Send in a robot.
This is not because astronauts are not heroic. They are. It's because successful explorers have a fine sense of when to take a risk and when to send in the expendibles.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:4, Funny)
Two words (Score:5, Insightful)
People are allowed to be people, you know. Naturally curious and sometimes doing dangerous and expensive things that have no obvious economic interest.
Re:Two words (Score:3, Insightful)
there are far bigger problems we need to resolve on earth, such as oil dependency. if these countries dumped this money into a "alternative fuel race" instead of a space race, we would have more expendable income because we would be free from the harness of oil. lets worry about this planet first before we start wasting tax money again.
Re:Two words (Score:5, Insightful)
No problem is two dimensional. In the real world, society is intertwined, you change one part of society, you can and usually will change it all. It's in part reflected in the law of unintended consequences. It is unreasonable to look at the worlds problems from a purely utilitarian point of view. It doesn't reflect the fact that yes we are humans and as such there are no simple answers.
This kind of reasoning is the same kind of reasoning that leads to people cutting funding for theoretical scientific work because there is no practical use for it, as you clearly are suggesting. How to use knowledge typically is not obvious when it is discovered.
I suggest you examine the possibility that people can tackle multiple problems at the same time. It is also worth considering that attacking problems from a two dimension point of view will end up causing new problems and is not the most efficient way of running a human society.
Re:Two words (Score:2)
National prestige.
In other news, Japanese scientists received an order from their Emperor to develop a space battleship with a huge cannon that emits a deadly beam and destroys everything in its path.
The purpose of the ship would be to explore the solar system, and maybe the Milky Way...thoughts are to go as far as the Magellan cloud.
I heard that they are going to utilise wave motion technology based on tachyon accelerators, both for the engine and the main weapon.
The ship will have 9 18" main gu
Re:Two words (Score:2)
There will be lonely robots with little support at the outer fringes, but each layer farther in you come, the more infrastructure, traffic, and activity you'll have. The innermost layer is full commercial and personal life: residence, travel, business, and play.
All of these layers are
Re:Two words (Score:2)
Yes, a feeling I know well. A feeling that gets lost somehow while watching the Foxumentary about how it was all a hoax, and realizing that most people are believing the hoax that is the Foxumentary, instead of the reality that was the moon landing.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:5, Insightful)
-JFK, 1962
In other words, it's inspiring. If not for the moon landing, a generation of scientists and engineers would've become something else, and our civilization would be the worse for it.
The reason we're seeing independent human spaceflight and governments starting to talk about ambitious space programs again is that those people have grown up and are wondering what happened to their dreams. If we get humans out to the moon and Mars in the next few decades, we will fulfill some of those dreams and give new ones to our children.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2, Troll)
Today we see the future much clearer and it dictates us what is rational to do. It is rational to concentrate on developing the enabling technologies first - nanotech and AI. It doesn't make sense to inspire people with space flight, that time has come and gone. It also makes sense to fight ageing and achieve physical immortality
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
"We choose to go to the moon! We choose to go to the moon in this decade and
do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard"
The question that's always bugged me: what were the other things? It always sounds to me like he forgot what he was going to say, almost like the speech comes across as this:
"We choose to go to the moon in this decade, and do the other things.. you know... they're on the tip
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
Vietnam
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:5, Insightful)
Millions of tourists travel yearly to well documented locations. Would their $5,000 vacation to tour Italy be better spent just reading some books and looking at the pictures. I mean then you don't have to worry about lost luggage, weather, being robbed, getting lost etc...
I know most geeks don't really understand but there is more to life than knowledge.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
I mean, literally everyone does it. It's not even funny anymore. Ask som
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2, Insightful)
Having said all that, I tend to agree with you. Humans are a burden on these missions -- we may be flexible of mind, but we are not flexible
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
Tell me, how are we then going to get those new technologies for human space flight?
Because we CAN. (Score:5, Insightful)
NASA has one man rated vehicle that is grossly expensive to launch, has a turnaround that is at best seasonal, and is currently used to service a barely sustainable habitat that is essentially a badly under-crewed garbage barge orbiting too low to avoid reentry without constant readjustment.
NASA, assuming they have ANY interest in the future of manned spaceflight, just isn't getting the job done. Competition is good. It took getting our ass handed to us by the Russians with Sputnik, etc. for us to even start giving a shit about space- if China or Japan puts a man on the moon, you can bet we'll be busting ass to beat them to mars.
500 years ago you probably would have been insisting on a land route to china, since it's Safe And Proven and Doesn't Risk Equipment Or Lives, etc, etc.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:3, Insightful)
In other words, I think space exploration should be driven by a long term plan for giving a solid payback in science or even profit. This will not be done by having mechanical toys drive around in ditches or staying in low earth o
Technology (Score:3, Insightful)
Trying to solve a problem is one of the fastest ways to come up with solutions to that problem. We are currently enjoying many of the technological advances acheived by (or for) the manned space program. Waiting for technology to advance enough to do something doesn't make as much sense as actively advancing it.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
making the attempt is at least as useful as success. you learn a lot. useful science and technology can still be derived from overall project failure.
there's a lot of approaches to the problem of manned spaceflight that haven't been tried yet. america got there in the 1960s with brute force.
maybe asian nations can do better?
besides, nobody has even attempted a manned moon mission in over 30 years. it's about time someone gave another stab at it.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
Robots can explore far more cheaply than humans, so for any particular amount of money, we can do more exploration with robots than with humans.
You mean giant mecha robots piloted by angst ridden teenagers with multiple double crosses. The only way to do space exploration in Japan.
On a more serious note. Asia was eclipsed by the West for the last century or so, I'm sure they want to restore their pride by showing their own people what they can achieve.
Re:Why Repeat Our Mistakes? (Score:2)
Robots can't plant a flag and claim territory. Until actual humans stand there and dare potential claim jumpers with the proverbial 'over my dead body' any legal claims are tenuous at best.
It's really impossible to say how human perceptions may transcend the data collected by machines. Astronauts say that the experience of spaceflight changed them in fundamental ways impossible to describe. It may be that for mankind to truly conquer space the poet will be just as essential as the explorer, the engineer,
hondaship (Score:4, Funny)
Re:hondaship (Score:3, Informative)
Of course, it will have... (Score:2)
I wonder if it will have a huge Type R sticker on it. R standing for Lunar.
(think about it)
. (sorry)
Schoolgirls of Mars (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Schoolgirls of Mars (Score:2)
Hey! How about that NCAA final!?!
Re:Schoolgirls of Mars (Score:2)
I guess we know why they're going to the moon [projectanime.com].
Meanwhile... (Score:5, Interesting)
It really strikes me that nobody evaluates the feasibility of things like Mach 2 air travel in the face of the end of cheap oil era on the horizon. Even as anybody can observe the total failure that today's airlines already are -- due to that very factor.
Re:Meanwhile... (Score:2, Insightful)
You are correct that today the cost of oil is high and will be so, but it is not the end all to travel by vehicles. This is something that MUST be recognized. An al
Re:Meanwhile... (Score:2)
Re:Meanwhile... (Score:2)
And you don't want to imagine the environmental disaster if we are forced to farm every available piece of land for fuel.
Read up on the concept of EROEI to understand why biofuels just aren't sustainable.
Re:Meanwhile... (Score:2)
Either petrochemicals, or decaying organic matter. The latter is fairly easy to come up with; you combine waste with bacteria. You can process most animal waste for methane by tenting and heating it, and the resulting sludge can be used for fertilizer. You can do the same thing with plant matter but it takes a lot longer. We could be reprocessing human waste into plant fertil
Re:Meanwhile... (Score:2)
try dividing that by 4.. [google.com]
Screw the Mach-5 planes... (Score:2)
Where's the friggin' VERITECHS!?!?!
Strange... (Score:2)
There's no mention of Mechs. Or the Yamato. Not even a single reference to a wave motion gun! Ah well, maybe those are in the next 20 year phase.
Seriously though, good luck Japan! I only wish we were as forward thinking as you guys seem to be. As it is, we can't even find a few million to keep getting data from Voyager [bbc.co.uk].
Learn from us, do yourselves a favor and budget past those 20. You'll be glad you did, someday.
With what money? (Score:2)
Japan and aerospace. (Score:3, Interesting)
Take a look at there "plans".
A Mach 2 airliner? The Concorde already did that. A Mach 5 unmanned aircraft? The shuttle and X-15 already beat those speeds and they where manned.
Re:Japan and aerospace. (Score:2)
A new way to do things? I know that "new", out of the box thinking is a big deal but if you look at history it almost never works that way. Rutan won with original out of the box thinking but he had a firm backgroun
What?! No Giant Robots?! (Score:2, Funny)
/me starts chanting (Score:2)
The year 2025? (Score:4, Funny)
Seriously, though, it's weird because 2025AD used to seem like THE FUTURE!!! Whereas it's actually now only 20 years away, which isn't really all that long. Computer tech aside, was 1985 all that different from today?
[Activates DeLorean, goes back to 1985] ... ...
Me: Hi! I'm you, from THE FUTURE!!! 2005, to be exact!
1985 Me: Wow, the 21st Century! So, did we get our flying cars?
Me: Um, no.
1985 Me: Jetpacks? Bionic implants? AIs? Robot servants? Semiballistic airliners allowing us to reach anywhere in the world in two hours? Space holidays? No more poverty or hunger? A cure for cancer? World peace? No more self-serving shitwicks in high political office?
Me: Sorry, no, none of that. But on the plus side, our videogames kick ass, there'll be a new Star Trek TV series and there's this thing called 'the internet'.
1985 Me: What, like William Gibson's cyberspace?
Me: Again, no, not really.
1985 Me: Wow. The future sounds really shitty. At least tell me I get rich in the next 20 years.
Me:
1985 Me: Laid on a regular basis?
Me:
1985 Me: Okay, find me a bottle of whiskey and some pills. I'm going to create a time paradox.
Funded? (Score:2)
Oh, the Space.com story is the same AP story ref'd earlier in the intro. Thanks for paying attention to details there at
Re:Uh-oh... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Uh-oh... (Score:2)
Re:Uh-oh... (Score:2, Insightful)
You don't have to be so closed-minded and nationalistic. I think its fantastic that China, India and now Japan are working on their space programs, as they'll no doubt bring things that Europe, the US and Russia would not. What's more, any 'space race' that leads to "us" being overtaken can only encourage "our" governments to i
Re:Uh-oh... (Score:2)
"Gee, but everybody on Slashdot already knows that manned space exploration just isn't worth it! Everything we could possibly want to do in space can be done by robots!"
Was that sarcasm? I hope so. There are very good things that could eventually come from manned exploration of space. It could lead to the eventual colonization of space which could be an escape from the whole hell's kitten affect. Not to mention that there are things the humans might be able to adapt if som
Re:Uh-oh... (Score:2)
Except be flexible and respond to unexpected situations of course.
Dreaming and hoping != plan (Score:2)
I think there is a fundamental difference in thinking between corporate USA and much of the rest of the world. US corporations are increasingly quarterly driven and "long term" is starting to mean thinking two or three quarters out. I have not RTFA, but I expect the Japanese actually have a planned program.
Re:Wow. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Wow. (Score:5, Insightful)
Uh. Heh. The problem with flying cars isn't so much the technology, it's the pilots. Higher class people can afford their own planes, but they're not exactly selling like hotcakes. Why? Because it takes a lot of hours to get your pilot's license. In order to make flying cars practical for mass-audiences (like they promise in PopSci), cars have to basically fly on their own. That sort of automation isn't all that practical today. GPS is helping, though...
Re:Wow. (Score:3, Informative)
What se
Re:Wow. (Score:2)
Re:Wow. (Score:3, Interesting)
Naturally the automotive gasoline will be cheaper, but you'll need to look at the fuel consumption of your plane which is usually measured in gallons per hour. In general many of the kit aicraft burn 5-6 gallons per hour, though I've seen as low as 3 gallons per hour (
Re:Wow. (Score:2)
Re:Wow. (Score:2)
Re:Wow. (Score:2, Insightful)
Reliability is also a major show-stopper. It you have the present airplane catastrophic failure rate multiplied a thousand times flying over our heads in any major city, you can easily see the point why a flying car is a very bad idea. Add to that the fact that most car owners are very sloppy with proper maintenance and you can see an even worse scenario. Do you really want them flying over your house?
Increased reliability means increased cost. Every tiny little bit of reliability planes get
Re:Wish We Had A Plan (Score:5, Informative)
Finally, most of your six points are part of that plan -- except for the maglift sci-fi you propose.
Respectfully, it looks like you have some reading to do.
Re:Wish We Had A Plan (Score:2)
Re:Wish We Had A Plan (Score:2)
Re:Wish We Had A Plan (Score:2)
comparing the shuttle fleet to consumer automobiles is disingenuous. A much more honest, but not perfect example is commercial aircraft. With proper maintenance, aircraft are kept flying for decades [faa.gov].
Catapults vs. aircraft (Score:2)
Is this an improvement over the ~600mph and 50000' boost that an aircraft (such as the X-series research aircraft's B29s/B52s and SpaceShipOne's White Knight) could provide?
(747's already piggyback the Shuttle - granted, that's without boosters/external tank, but an aircraft that large still wou
Re:Catapults vs. aircraft (Score:5, Informative)
Also, there's the issue of "what type of carry"? Carrying on the underbelly may seem attractive, but it requires a custom-designed plane with a huge degree of ground clearance - it's not a nice shape to work with. There can be problems on deployment as well. A basic tow-launch system seems attractive (minimal aircraft modifications), until you consider the landing gear and structural penalties needed for supporting the weight of the fuel during takeoff. A better option is either tow to altitude and then fuel from the towing craft (fuelling lines attached the whole time), or take off with minimal fuel and dock like a fighter. One additional effectively demonstrated method is to stow your spacecraft inside the body of the aircraft, and then launch it out the back with a drouge chute to maintain stability. While this gives clear size constraints, it requires almost no aircraft modifications, no extra drag during ascent, it can be pre-fueled, and it doesn't have significant landing gear/structural penalties.
You don't read enough of 'em (Score:2)
yes, typo, I know. But still....a real Otaku would use a japanese to engrish spellchecker.
Re:Ummm... (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Outsourcing (Score:2, Informative)
You are incorrect. The current congress/adminstration has specifically budgeted money for Hubble to remain in use and it is NASA that is not spending that money and cancelling Hubble.