Expert Warns Of Giant Tidal Wave 144
Kieckerjan writes "Forget about asteroids and start worrying about the unassuming Cumbre Vieja volcano. According to prof. Bill McGuire of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre, if this mountain erupts, it could cause a tidal wave that would wipe out America's east coast. Google news has the same story over and over again. (This makes you wonder: how much would it take to trigger an eruption for one bent on destruction?)"
Clearly. (Score:4, Insightful)
Clearly.... (Score:1)
Re:Clearly. (Score:3, Insightful)
But if it could be precisely redirected, it could
Re:Clearly. (Score:2)
Re:Clearly. (Score:5, Funny)
I think they should be more affraid of the 'Wave' of Hollywood crappy movies this is gonna create...
Guns? (Score:2)
The rest of that stuff I can't do much about, so worrying does little good there either.
-B
Re:Guns? (Score:2, Insightful)
Consider who has killed more people.... Karl Marx, or Osama bin Laden. I'll choose to fight a hundred armed OBLs to one do-gooder politician.
BTW, the followers of Karl have killed about ten thousand times more people than the followers of Osamma.
Re:Guns? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Guns? (Score:2)
He probably didn't even do that (Score:2)
Re:Yes He Did (Score:2)
Re:Guns? (Score:2)
Re:Guns? (Score:2)
Reading Marx gives the impression of an idiot-savant: in one paragraph he
makes an incisive, novel comment about the inner-workings of capitalism,
in the next he's unable to understand the concept of risk and the value
that we attach to it, (an error that goes to the core of his entire theory
of value)."
--Alomex, Slashdot.com 12/04/2002
Re:Clearly. (Score:2)
Re:Clearly. (Score:2)
What I'm talking about is how people joke about fat people like they're idiots who sit around eating cheese and french fries all day long.
Yeah, I'm off topic, but I find it shitty to watch people on television condemn fat people as if they were the evil canc
Re:Clearly. (Score:3, Funny)
Don't forget phobophobia. That shit scares the bejesus out of me.
Re:Clearly. (Score:2)
Good lord, can't you f'rn'rs get it right?! It's pronounced, newk-ler or newk-ya-ler. Barbarians, the lot of ya!
Cliff (Score:5, Interesting)
Seemingly a particular cliff (which could very well be the volcano), if it were to fall into the sea, would cause a tidal wave large enough to take out New York (and would be in line with taking out New York).
A few properly set explosives, and New Yorkers would have a few hours warning with no way to stop it.
The particular documentary showed evidence of such tidal waves occuring where there had been rock slides of this sort. Volcano isn't actually necessary, but would give a large tidal wave (hence the east coast of the US would be affected).
I think coming up with a method is dispersing such a tidal wave before it hits the coast would be the best way to counteract this. However, how, exactly, do you stop a large tidal wave in the middle of the Atlantic ocean?
T.
Re:Cliff (Score:1)
Re:Cliff (Score:3, Informative)
The energy in each wave isn't going to vanish so conveniently.
Re:Cliff (Score:1)
Re:Cliff (Score:2)
So you might be able to use this method to save a particular city, but it wouldn'
Re:Cliff (Score:2)
With a circular pattern you'd still have even bigger waves elsewhere other than the cancelled parts. If you could create a soliton then that wouldn't be as much of an issue, but you still have the first problem.
Re:Cliff (Score:2)
Re:Cliff (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Cliff (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Cliff (Score:2, Funny)
Destroy a wave with a missile? Doh! (Score:3, Insightful)
What happens when two waves meet, and cross? When the peaks cross you get a wave with a height that is the sum of the waves. When the troughs cross you get a trough with a depth that is the sum. When the peak of one crosses the trough of the other they cancel out temporarily .
But, once they have crossed, they go merrily on their way as if nothing had happened.
So you explode a missile in the path of the big wave? All you have done is add a second big
Re:Destroy a wave with a missile? Doh! (Score:2)
cities were all in the spots where the interference cancelled the wave, this might be kind of cool. Of course the "less-valuable" areas between the cities, would get two or three times the damage, but this could still be a win. I'm not sure we have enough explosives (and yes, I'm counting nukes) to create waves on the necessary scale, however.
Re:Destroy a wave with a missile? Doh! (Score:3, Interesting)
How tall did the article say this superwave might be? Ah. Maybe 300 feet -- at the Canary Island. How tall will it be when it strikes New York, Boston, Charleston, Savanah, Miami? Let's say 90 feet -- 30 yards.
Well, the wavelength of a wave is something like ten times its height. So, how large is the area where the natural superwave, and your artifical superwave ca
Re:Destroy a wave with a missile? Doh! (Score:2)
Re:Destroy a wave with a missile? Doh! (Score:2)
BUT IF THE WAVES ARE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE IN THE SAME DIRECTION THEY CANCEL COMPLETELY FOR ALL ETERNITY.
If you can create an opposite wave going in the SAME direction, the wave will essentially disappear.
The point is that is
Re:Cliff (Score:3, Funny)
Well it's just going to have to take its turn. There are others who want to take out New York, and they've been waiting much longer.
Re:Cliff (Score:2)
"Just a little bit longer - that city over there is still growing..."
T.
Re:Cliff (Score:1)
Re:Cliff (Score:3, Insightful)
It is possible that you could have seen a documentary about this. I read about this more than over a year a ago. This is definitely not news, just a reminder for the people! What worries me is that governments still haven't responded to the threat. Why? Because we consider some kind of a natural catastrophe often as a very unlikely and local phenomena. I have never seen, and don't know anyone who would have seen a natural catastrophe. Have you? The ever lasting problem remains; people won't believe you unti
The Cliff is nothing, look at China! (Score:2)
> well be the volcano), if it were to fall into the
> sea, would cause a tidal wave large enough to take
> out New York (and would be in line with taking out New York).
Did you know, that if all the people in China simultaneously jumped into the Pacific ocean, the resulting tidal wave would completely destroy the West coast? The Chinese government offers no comment except for hinting at dire consequences should we ever rescind its "most favored natio
Rock & Wave (Score:2, Interesting)
We move mountains to build highways, so I don't see that this would be technologically unrealistic.
Re:Rock & Wave (Score:2)
"If Cumbre Vieja volcano erupts, it may send a rock slab the size of a small island crashing into the sea, creating a huge tidal wave, or tsunami."
Aside from it being a huge undertaking to move so many tons of rock, there's always the risk that removing sections of this slab will destabilize it, causing it to slide into the water below.
It's just too risky unless someone comes up with a more foolproof method.
Re:Rock & Wave (Score:5, Informative)
This rock is HUGE.
The BBC article linked to gives the size as that of "a small island", this other BBC news article [bbc.co.uk] gives it as "the size of the Isle of Man". According to the CIA World Factbook, that is 572 sq m., or "three times the size of Washington, DC. It also metnions that the rock is already in motion.
Actually, this PDF [ucsc.edu] (Google HTML version [66.102.11.104]) gives it as between 150 and 500 cubic km of rock. That is obviously far too large to get rid of. If it slides into the sea at 100 m/s (as in a volcanical eruption), it could cause waves of up to 25m high in the Americas (well, it's 10 to 25 for the biggest rock size).
(Excuse me if some of the above links are actually in the story, I had read a bit about it already so didn't look closely at the given links)
Re:Rock & Wave (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Rock & Wave (Score:1)
The images I get in my head though are of this giant rock balancing on something...and then a little bird lands on one end....and the east coast is wiped out.
My new solution: get thousands of birds to sit on the other side of the rock!
Re:Rock & Wave (Score:2)
Move mountains? Since when? (Score:2)
By digging small holes into it and then putting explosives into it and BOOM, causing the whole big mountain to slide..... into the ocean. Mmmm, exactly the thing you were trying to avoid?
Either you reinforce the rock (there was a similar bbc doc about a rock that could break of and slide into the ocean causing a huge wave), make sure that if it slides it slides slowly or you break it down pie
Re:Move mountains? Since when? (Score:1)
Also, it soulds like it would be a good idea if we could drill a hold into the volcano from the other side and start letting pressure out. Bu
Just what Hollywood needs (Score:2)
Surf's Up ! (Score:1)
Where's my board, damn it !
Large Explostion to set off volcano (Score:5, Insightful)
While this was a great incomplete theory, it left out the crucial detail of environmental damage and subsequent release of radiation to the ore, the slag, and the mined-out areas. Of course, in that day-in-age it wasn't well known what the long term effects of radioactive byproducts of nuclear explosions were.
There's also the crucial political perspective of Eisenhower's use of 'Atoms for Peace' to give political cover to the Atomic Energy Commission's mandate / goals of limiting proliferation. Basically, we promised the world that if they would NOT develop nuke bombs, we would give them reactors for free power. I am not "up" on the issue, I'd defer to some Ph.D.'s who do nonproliferation studies for a living. However, I'd wager there's a tradeoff between the lives saved by not having too many nukes out there vs. the lives lost in long term radiation exposure due to waste from 3rd world reactors.
Regardless, this builds up to the idea that if you're a terrorist, and you're going to try to set off a volcano, you're going to need lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots, and lots of conventional explosives, or one medium- to large-sized nuclear bomb. And, if you have a medium to large nuke, you're not going to use it on an off-the-wall gambit like an underwater or underground explosion.
Geologists, please comment on any demonstrated effects of the use of explosives in the triggering of volcanic eruptions (if any) ?? I would suspect very few experiments, am I right?
Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:5, Interesting)
Yellowstone erupts on a 640,000 cycle, give or take a few ten thousand years.
Last time Yellowstone blew it buried Nebraska under six feet of ash. Anyone within a 600 mile radius would die within minutes.
It's about 20,000 years overdue to erupt.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
It's about 20,000 years overdue to erupt.
Meaning that it could be a few more tens of thousands of years before it blows up? I think I'll stick to worrying about other stuff rather than an explosion that might happen in the year 32,789 A.D.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
An eruption will probably not occur in our lifetimes, if you're playing the odds game. But an eruption is an eventuality. We're not talking about IF, we are talking about WHEN. Yellowstone's last eruption was larger than Kobe, and that one nearly wiped us out as a species.
The damage that will happen to this hemisphere cannot even be calculated. Scientists talk about giant rocks in space, but there are plenty of boogymen right here.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
Asteroids however can be avoided with the proper technology.
In any case, no government will spend money on opposing a threat that might be ten thousand years off.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:3, Insightful)
In the last 2.1 million years, Yellowstone erupted 3 times at intervals of between 600,000 and 800,000 years. Even allowing a statistical analysis of such a small sample size, the expected interval would be something more like 700,000 years plus/minus 100,000 years. Yes, Yellowstone may erupt again someday, but calling it overdue is listening too much to the tinfoil hat folks.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
The short-term predictive capabilities for volcanologists is getting pretty good. Events such as the eruption of Mt. St. Helens or Mt. Penetubo in the Phillipenes were extreamely accurate, and gave several days notice before they erupted. I would imagine that the same could be said about Yellowstone... even more so because so much is done to study the region on a geological basis.
The problem is tha
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:1)
Their underground strongholds in the Rocky Mountains
will not be safe for Operation Save All of the Scientists,
Artists, and Politicians. So, they're misinforming the
public until they've completed the East Coast facility.
Re:Yellowstone Supervolcano (Score:2)
I know... (Score:2)
approximately 1,372.5 lbs of low grade explosive... but who's calculating?
A sense of perspective... (Score:1)
Re:A sense of perspective... (Score:2)
in all the coverage I've heard on this the only mention made is of the east coast of the US. Just one more invisible catastrophe to hit the third world...
If you look at the diagrams, the vast majority of the energy released by the slide would travel westwards. The coast of Africa looks like it would be far less at risk in this scenario than the Eastern seaboard of the US. It's the Caribbean islands that are overlooked in a lot of the press coverage, as they are most at risk.
IANAG, but... (Score:3, Interesting)
Just an idea..
Whole or in pieces, same effect (Score:5, Informative)
The problem here is that the rock goes down and displaces water, which comes up. The potential energy of the falling rock is partially converted into kinetic energy of the water, which becomes a tsunami when it hits the surface. You are not going to get rid of this energy by fragmenting the rock. Some tsunamis appear to have been caused by mudslides [omzg.sscc.ru], and it's hard to get any more fragmented than mud.
Re:Whole or in pieces, same effect (Score:1)
I see what you're saying, and it makes sense.. but there's gotta be a way to cancel out the waves. It's no different than radio or sound waves. If you could create an equally powerful wave in front of the tsunami, wouldn't they cancel out? Keep in mind, I'm a moron
Re:Whole or in pieces, same effect (Score:2)
But where are you going to find an island-sized lump of rock that you can drop into the ocean at a few hour's notice to generate such a wave?
(plus I'm ignoring the fact that both the original wave and the cancelling wave would actually have circular ripple patterns going in all directions, so the cancelling effect would only really work head on)
200% wrong (Score:2)
tsunamis at sea are not very impressive in size, generally only a few meters high, but they do an enormous speed, and when they ramp up a coastal shelf at the other end, all of that wave gets compressed, mostly upwards.
if you want impressive waves at sea, search for "rogue waves".
Re:Whole or in pieces, same effect (Score:1)
The tsunami is created by the rolling motion caused by the material sliding down the slope of the Cumbre Vieja and the rest of the island.
One big splash would dissipate and not create a tsunami, it's the fact that the oscillation is reinforced by the additional material, creating a several-period wave that can travel.
I think the previous poster was right -- it would be possible to fragment or interfere with the waves in such a way to reduce their amplitude significantly. It would requir
Re:Whole or in pieces, same effect (Score:4, Insightful)
bush will save us! (Score:2)
You never can be sure enough! right?
Re:bush will save us! (Score:2, Flamebait)
Link to the original paper (Score:4, Informative)
Motives? (Score:5, Insightful)
Let's look at the source:
On the front page of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre [benfieldhrc.org] web site is this interesting statement:
<sarcasm>Why would an insurance company post such an article?</sarcasm>
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Motives? (Score:2)
The insurance industry was actually the first industry to take global climate change seriously, partly because they literally have an interest in the future. I assume that this may be something along the same lines -- aside from the fact that much of the insurance industry is on the US east coast and would drown if this happens, it's in their corporate interest to get a handle on possible risks. Plus, it's good PR.
Re:Motives? (Score:2)
Interesting point. Most home-owner's (and renter's) insurance policies, at least in the U.S., do not cover damage due to flooding. This makes sense, (even if it makes sense in a twisted way) since most places are either in an area that will definitly flood given a reasonable period of time, or will never flood, except for some disastor of cataclysmic proportions.
Anyway, I doubt there is any negative motive here on the part of the insurance compani
Re:Motives? (Score:2)
No need to fear! (Score:2, Funny)
I only hope they're at a high enough level by the time they reach the overlord.
In other news (Score:2)
Don't forget (Score:2)
I wonder how long before some models might be available... even a simple concentric circle diagram taking into account the islands dampening effect on the tsunami. (I think they already know where the slippage will occur...)
Re:Don't forget (Score:4, Informative)
These [benfieldhrc.org] are the models you seek.
Why not take it down in pieces, now? (Score:2)
Should not be too expensive to send some mining experts who'll blow it into small pieces which individually have not much effect.
Nuke it! (Score:1)
Surf's Up? (Score:2, Insightful)
First off, a disclaimer.. IANAG, IANAP, and IANAO. (I am not a geologist, physicist, or geologist.) But, unless something is dramatically different about rocks and water, F = ma, and the laws of conservation of energy still apply. How is an obje
Re:Surf's Up? (Score:5, Informative)
The reason this would be big is because the wave, as it approaches the coast, would expand upward as the depth decreases. The energy dissipation follows wave form rules, but as in any system, the energy involved doesn't go away. So, as the water gets shallow, the wave would grow up. Interesting to note that there would be no 300 foot wave in deep water, but the wave form itself would still exist and be travelling at a high rate of speed despite being essentially invisible.
As a side note, Dr. No, GoldFinger, and Dr. Evil all investigated this and decided it wasn't grand enough for a take over the world plot. Not reproducible, like a laser or nuclear weapon, and possibly defensible (blow up the rock before it slides?).
no worries (Score:2)
No worries. Mr Gates is a software engineer and businessman, not a geo-tectonic thermonuclear engineer.
Solution (Score:4, Insightful)
Hoorah! (Score:1, Funny)
That would certainly restore my faith in God.
Can't believe I'm the only pedant here. (Score:3)
n.
The swell or crest of surface ocean water created by the tides.
tsunami
n.
A very large ocean wave caused by an underwater earthquake or volcanic eruption.
*ahem*
Re:Can't believe I'm the only pedant here. (Score:2)
i'm curious (Score:2)
Re:i'm curious (Score:2)
Drilling ???
You probably need to drill quite deep (rather far through the earths crust)..
So a drill of a few miles long ? No way.
If you would want to use something like the drills the Chunnel has been made with. Only problem, they don't work by remote control, humans need to be present. Drilling that deep in a vulcano (warmth/gasses) is probably not something you'll survive to tell your grand-children about.
If the drill itself survives the heat too btw.
So drilling is out. O
Re:i'm curious (Score:2)
Re:i'm curious (Score:2)
not me (Score:2)
Damnit... (Score:2)
Its another job for.. (Score:2)
Ive actually been to La Palma, its a beautiful and largely untouched island. Its interior has the 2nd largest volcano in the world, with utterly impossible and fantastic looking mountain peaks..
Re:This would be a problem exactly why? (Score:2)
Re:This would be a problem exactly why? (Score:1, Troll)
The truly innocent people are the ones who live far, far, away from such dens of inequity (or should that be, dens of inequality?) and yet are destryed by companies like Haliburton, Enron, Worldcom, and agribusinesses just for the fun of that wierd t
Re:How far in-land would a 300-foot wave flood? (Score:2)