A Review of Nanotech's Future 340
captainsaavik writes "A Washington Post article today reviews nanotechnology - 'Nanotechnology, the hot young science of making invisibly tiny machines and materials, is stirring public anxiety and nascent opposition inspired by best-selling thrillers that have demonized the science -- and new studies suggesting that not everything in those novels is fantasy.'"
Unstoppable (Score:5, Interesting)
We will research, improve, innovate and ultimately implement nanotech solutions for one simple reason: we can. It's been the same right throughout human history.
The views of the objectors, no matter how well founded and how well intentioned, will not lead to r&d into nanotech (or any other new technology, including human cloning) being stopped. At best it might be delayed, but even then the money to be made by Big Business makes this unlikely IMO.
Can anybody think of any kind of new technology that has been abandoned, or even significantly delayed, through alleged (or real) risks ? I suspect new technologies are only abandoned because they are not feasible either technically or commercially (cost too much, too late to market etc) rather than for some ethical or environment consideration.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:5, Insightful)
Nuclear energy.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Interesting)
All are old and outdated power plants, with no new plans for any new plants to be built. Shame, it was killed due to people passing zoning laws, nobody wants a nuclear plant next door...
Just look at the power needs during the last few year and the whole Enron scandal. There is a need thats not being fulfilled, the DOE said by 2010 we would
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Insightful)
Enron was criminal fraud, political corruption, high level double dealing, etc. They could do it as well with water as with electricity. In fact, I've heard that some of the major players have shifted their focus.
Yes, we need power. This doesn't necessarily mean nuclear power, and this doesn't necessarily mean coal power. I'm getting ready to start pricing a solar roof. (One of my neighbors has one, has been quite happy with it, and is selling power back to the grid most months.)
Now I'll grant you
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Informative)
If this is true, I would guess it's because the insurance companies don't have an accurate estimate of the risks involved.
If you want to insure something, you have to know 1) what the risks are, and 2) whether it's possible to insure this thing while getting a reasonable return on it, in the
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Insightful)
Which was killed by enviromental groups to increase their political power despite being no danger [junkscience.com] to anything but insects.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:2)
Re:Unstoppable (Score:5, Insightful)
Which was killed by enviromental groups to increase their political power despite being no danger to anything but insects.
So you watch nightline, or 20/20, or whatever show that "give me a break" shill is on.
DDT accumulates in the food chain. The beluga population is severly affected by DDT poisoning to this day even though it has been banned for a very long time.
I watched that part of the programm because I wanted to hear why he claimed that aspartame was totally safe. He didn't, he just talked about DDT after having named aspartame as one of the products that are "falsely" considered harmfull.
I am very sensitive to aspartame, if I absentmindedly accept a sugarless mint or gum from someone, I'll suffer a severe migraine wich renders me totally incapable of doing anything for hours. Safe my ass...
Give ME a break.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:4, Insightful)
So what? If my brother eats a brazil nut, he'll keel over and die... Should we ban them? I can eat them till the cows come home and I'll just get fat(ter). Some people are allergic to some shit. Some people get sick/headaches/whatever if they eat msg, but to 99% of the population, it's just like salt with an evil name.... it simply makes your food taste a little better.
And there goes my mod points i gave to the grandfather post, too...
Re:Unstoppable (Score:2)
For MSG, its basically a matter of dosage. It doesn't take much to make me sick, it takes more to make most other people sick, and it doesn't make most asians sick.
The thing is, the MSG and aspartame producing companies invest a lot of effort and money in preventing their drugs from being regulated.
Because that is what MSG is, a
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Interesting)
Glutamate is a lot of things. It is an amino acid, found in essentially all protein. Injected into the nervous system at high concentrations, it can be toxic, but it is also a neurotransmitter that is critical for learning.
Some people have adverse effects after eating it, but for most it merely enhances the taste of food. It is now known to
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course, if we were to grind up brazil nuts, load the powder into crop dusters, and spray nearly every vegetable produced in the U.S. with them I think there would be cause for complaint.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Informative)
The whole anti-aspartame case is based on an urban legend [snopes.com], which started, IIRC, with some "research" published to promote a stock fraud scheme by a "food science" professor at ASU (Arizona State University). Dispite the chemical implausibility of the reactions he proposed (unfavorable reaction paths that require odd conditions + heat to occur even in theory, no repeatable demonstration of them under any condition) has taken on a life of its own. Many people (on both sides) have a vested interest in "winn
No danger? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:No danger? (Score:2)
"Boob-juice"... heh heh heh.
Re:No danger? (Score:2)
That "gimme a break" guy was saying "none of these people got sick from DDT" while showing that footage.
I think he has shares in a DDT manufacturing company and is using his TV spot to make the stock rise a bit...
Re:No danger? (Score:3, Insightful)
I used to live across the street from a river, and up the road from a marsh. Yet I could go out a night without fear of mosquito bites! Why? Bats, an army of 2,000 of them, patrolling the skies every night during mosquito season, sucking up the insects like a vacuum cleaner. They were cute little brown bats, and thanks to them, I could star gaze in safety.
Mosquitos are, with the exception of females in mating season, basically
Re:Unstoppable (Score:3, Informative)
"Steven J. Milloy is the publisher of JunkScience.com, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and a columnist for FoxNews.com. "
They love nuclear power, don't see a problem with "second hand smoke", and in general are for anything that can make a buck. While there may be interesting information at the site it certainly does have an agenda.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:4, Interesting)
I've also seen the nests with crushed eggs that collapsed under the weight of the mother 'way back in the gradeschool days, from people who weren't aware of any political agenda behind DDT.
I'm not one to reject out of hand the concept of the government putting political and corporate concerns above and ahead of the health of their citizens. Perhaps you can tell me, then, if it wasn't the DDT used extensively here in the country's breadbasket, what, exactly, was it that caused the fragility of the Raptor's eggs back then, and where did it go?
Re:Unstoppable (Score:5, Informative)
Most of what he says there is reasonably accurate, but he also does a good job of leaving out most of the actual problems DDT has. He does a nicely comprehensive job documenting the predictably hysterical behavior of pop-scientists and the inefficacy of committees in doing anything useful, but jumping from there to advocating unbanning DDT is kinda insane.
DDT is poison. This is the whole point. It's also fat-soluable. One of the many things that Junky doesn't talk about is DDT's effect of bats. Bats were hit pretty damn hard by DDT, because bats migrate, and when bats migrate, they first load up on fat, which is full of DDT, so when they start burning their fat in migration season, the DDT level in their blood suddenly goes through the roof and they all die and end up all over your back yard.
Same thing happens to people. Like most fat-soluable chemicals, DDT is cumulative. In an environment saturated with DDT, like the US in 1970, you take in more than you pass. The
Based on just the numbers Junky has, you take a 250lb farmer who's been ingesting 17, 18mg/day of DDT on the farm, have him work hard for 25 years, have a heart attack when he hits 50, decide to try and come down to 180, succeed, and then suddenly he drops dead because he's been flooding his system with backed-up DDT at 400mg/day as he burns off the fat.
Regardless, the millions of lives are being saved anyway. We push DDT all over the 3rd world, it's not like Ghana's banned the stuff. The sad thing is we give them the same old shit that mosquitos have been selected to avoid and tolerate since facism was still cool instead of the vastly more effective, safer, and more stable products we've come up with in the intervening 1-1/4 centuries.
DDT is dangerous, if it's misused... (Score:3, Interesting)
more info on 'proper' DDT Use (Score:2)
original New Yorker article (Very Good Read) (Score:2)
Nuclear power was only delayed in the US. (Score:5, Informative)
Japan is big on nukes, also.
Actually, just about every industrialized country other than the USA sees the risks as much less of a barrier to development than they are here... blame the idiot wing of the environmental lobby and the pathetic PR efforts of utilities here for shutting down nuclear in the US, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths from coal-fired power plant emissions over the last several decades.
Re:Nuclear power was only delayed in the US. (Score:5, Funny)
Well, how else are you gonna get giant radioactive dinosaures?
I mean, when all their robots are up and running, they're gonna need something to fight...
Re:Nuclear power was only delayed in the US. (Score:4, Informative)
France: 77.1%
Germany: 29.9%
Japan: 29.8%
USA: 20.7%
So yeah, France is pretty dependent on nuclear power. Germany, although at around 30%, is very anti-nuclear power right now. They are planning on discontinuing all nuclear power plants. Japan has been developing (shoddy) nuclear plants in recent years. Incidentally, they can make a nuke right away if the gov't wants to.
Also interesting are various countries' dependance on fossil fuel for electricity:
USA: 71.4%
Germany: 61.8%
Japan: 60%
France: 8.2%
Re:Unstoppable (Score:2)
We could have, for example, small, self contained nuclear generators that could power a remote town in Alaska without running in costly wires. Or perhaps even nuclear AA batteries.
Developing these things very safely is within our grasp but hard to find money for (and even harder to find a market for).
Re:Unstoppable (Score:5, Informative)
GM crops outside of the United States.
Health risks? (Score:5, Insightful)
I think one of the more realistic fears is not the new toys of spying and things that might creep into our personal freedoms, but rather environmental issues. And here, I don't mean the nasty chemicals needed to produce these things, but rather nanotube detritus finding it's way into our ecosystem and food sources. Certainly there is now and there has always been nano dirt in our air and finding it's way into our bodies, but these new engineered shapes may have unforeseen health issues, much like asbestos in the last 30 years.
Re:Unstoppable (Score:2)
Re:Unstoppable (Score:2)
Re:Unstoppable (Score:5, Insightful)
I have yet to find a single credible source explaining how the "Water engine" is supposed to operate. Perhaps you can point me to one?
It's always put up or shut up. Talk all you want but proof is proof. So far every nutball that claimed to build an engine that runs on water or an overunity device or inertial propulsion system has denied anyone credible from examining their invention.
Big Oil my ass. Maybe it just doesn't actually work? What could you possibly do to the water to get out more energy than you put in, or use the energy more efficiently by manipulating water than using it directly? Got any credible sources? If you do please share, I'm willing to accept the concepts if they are properly represented with lucid facts and backed by real data.
=Smidge=
still a dream (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:still a dream (Score:3, Insightful)
A better analogy, already made upstream, would be with nuclear power (not that nuclear power is necessarily safe).
The ultimate vaporware... (Score:5, Funny)
Some salesguy holding up an empty glass.
"No, No, they are really in there, you just can't see them."
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:4, Insightful)
Want a new car?
Dump some scrap metal in the factory, load up the car image you torrented off the internet last night, and in a few hours you have your new ferrai.
We might start getting beer that is free as in software.
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Funny)
Umm.. am I still on Slashdot? what the hell happened here?
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Interesting)
Sounds like SF, and I don't expect to see it happen in my lifetime. But if we ever manage to make nano-replicators, this could eventually become reality.
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Interesting)
Want a new car?
br> Dump some scrap metal in the factory, load up the car image you torrented off the internet last night, and in a few hours you have your new ferrai.
We might start getting beer that is free as in software.
If you hated the reaction from the RIAA/MPAA, wait for the reaction of lobbyists for the entire industrial sector.
The objective value of any good is only the cost of making an ident
Objective value (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:5, Interesting)
Imagine it as a huge mesh of strong, flexible, microscopic interlocking nodes with a distributed brain. Its density is so low that you couldn't see it in a volume as small as a glass, but like a cloud it becomes more opaque with thickness. Sort of like that aerogel stuff, but more XTREME(!).
The applications of utility fog are boundless, but one I'm sure parents would love is the "security blanket" for their kids - the fog would act as smart 24/7 airbag extending for several feet around the body so little Timmy never gets bruised falling down the stairs...
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Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:The ultimate vaporware... (Score:2)
The Timmy's of the world then learn a new game: "how far can I fall without getting bruised?"
Similar concepts are explored in "The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect" [kuro5hin.org] -- highly recommended (free!) reading. Localroger's short story (no
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Fear Monger (Score:3, Interesting)
I found the fortune surprisingly appropriate for this discussion: "Never worry about theory as long as the machinery does what it's supposed to do." -- R. A. Heinlein
Re:Fear Monger (Score:3, Insightful)
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Why Prey (Score:5, Insightful)
Like most things... (Score:2, Interesting)
Prey (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Prey (Score:2)
It's one of the sicker aspects of our race - invent something and we'll find a way to abuse it.
Re:Prey (Score:2, Interesting)
If not there are plenty [nanotech-now.com] of other errors.
Re:Prey (Score:2)
Not really science fiction- more a technothriller (Score:2)
Plus, of course, the expectation in SF is both that the writer gets all current science right, and that extrapolations are (as much as possible)
meant to write "Foresight Institute's Guidelines" (Score:3, Informative)
Diamond Age, I pray for thee (Score:5, Interesting)
Man, I can't wait. Of course, the greatest innovations of the coming Diamond Age haven't even been imagined yet, if history is any guide.......
(just wish they'd hurry up)
IPv6 and RFID (Score:3, Funny)
fantasy? ya right (Score:4, Interesting)
First, its going to be really hard, IMO, to get these things to autoreplicate as suggested. Shit, we cant even get large robots to replicate; how will they get nano-sized ones to do so?
Personally, I only see nanotech being used in manufacturing, but eventaully branching into other things after a century or so (similiar to the way computer tech has spread).
Re:fantasy? ya right (Score:2)
Re:fantasy? ya right (Score:3, Interesting)
but we dont need to use electron tunnelling microscopes to fix a Buick.
It isnt that small things start first: its that simple things start first. And a single celled organism is far simpler than an intelligent, multi-celled organism.
When you build things to run reliably, you need to be simple. Simple means less things which can go wrong. Complexity can do more
Re:fantasy? ya right (Score:2)
For a robot to reproduce, it would need the means to move around, collect resources from the environment, refine and shape those resources into parts that can be used. On the macro scale, we use high temperatures to break ores apart, but at small scales we could just sort through the crystals for the right materials. We organics do it by gathering sugar sources, digesting it
Re:Replication (Score:3, Interesting)
It's been done, as a college project.
The materials certainly are not just details when you're comparing
1) premade legos
2) smelting materials yourself from ore
3) molecules with valences, electric fields, and thermal motion
But I agree with you: if we can do it with one set of materials, it is very likely we can do it with the others. Smalley, however, holds fast that we can't build "real
New Slashdot Icon? (Score:5, Funny)
How do you know they don't already have one (Score:2, Insightful)
Backlash. (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Backlash. (Score:2)
Come winter time the gorillas simply freeze to death. - Principal Skinner
The backlash isn't about the tech itself (Score:4, Informative)
Nanotech (Score:5, Informative)
Among other things they address the 'grey goo' or uncontrolled replicator issue.
Basically it would require a deliberate effort to create such a thing.
The spread, while exponential, would be slow due to a nanite's size.
Re:Nanotech (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh, wait....
Re:Nanotech (Score:2)
Have you ever looked closely at an exponential function?
Suppose their number doubles every step (that's exponential). A day before the whole earth is covered with them, only halve the earth would be covered. So, while at the beginning it might go slowly, once it catches up speed (that speed doubles also every step!), there's no stopping it.
Note that I'm just attacking this statement, I'm not saying it would be probable to happen or someth
Nanotech potential is oversold (Score:2, Funny)
Small machines. (Score:2, Insightful)
Biology's doing rather well.
Nanotech Spam (Score:4, Funny)
Grey goo fake/medical risks real (Score:5, Interesting)
The medical concerns should be taken seriously however. The Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology has a nice page [rice.edu] that promises to be a clearinghouse for information on these issues.
Re:Grey goo fake/medical risks real (Score:2)
The truth is, a lot of good technology out there is largely harmless.
Sure, grey-goo is likely to happen. However, its as likely to happen as some random evil person in the world would get hold of a dirty bomb to wipe out half the world and hold us at ransom.
Everytime I see people ranting about nano-tech, nuclear energy or global warming, this is what puts me off.
The truth is, Nuclear Energy when
Re:Grey goo fake/medical risks real (Score:3, Interesting)
I think your comparison is a bit off. I think grey goo is about as likely to happen as a random evil person creating a bomb that causes everybody's clothing to disappear leaving us unharmed but naked. The dirty bomb is possible, but unfeasable. The naked bomb is impossible. Toxic nanotech is possible. Grey goo is
Re:Grey goo fake/medical risks real (Score:2)
I'm not much of a bio guy, but i remember those experiments where you put some bacteria and watch them spread, or about how quickly fruit flys can reproduce and such. Getting the energy for exponential growth isn't such a hard thing. Developing nanotech that's as good at using sources of energy as b
Bad news is still news... (Score:5, Interesting)
I can still remember the days when these books hit the shelves:
"Evil steam-monster" [about.com], around 1803, told a horrifying tale about a big steel monster that spewed steam, ran over everyone and made everyone cough very heavily.
"Lightning horror!" [about.com], around 1877, very good thriller about artificially created light that made zombies of everyone so they couldn't stop working for the whole 24 hours.
"Tube of death" [about.com], around 1926, which was mostly about a tube that transmitted moving light-beams and brainwashed everyone with stories about fictious people through their everyday lifes.
See, nothing to worry about...
Gov't Downplaying Nanotech like Nuclear (Score:5, Interesting)
A salient quote from a nanodot.org article [nanodot.org] on this subject:
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good and bad (Score:4, Insightful)
Significant is this bit from the article:
On average the reactions [to nanotube inhalation] were worse than those in mice given equal amounts of quartz particles, which toxicologists use as their "serious damage" standard.
And this is from one dose, and they further state that even without continued exposure, the existing particles continued to produce damage, presumably beyond what a single exposure to quartz dust might produce.
I fear that we'll rush headlong into this without thorough research, and do significant damage to ourselves and the rest of the world. Yah, that sounds all "tree huggy," but when they talk about accidentally killing all soil microorganisms over a large area, frankly, that kind of scares me.
I'm starting to tilt towards a rant, so I'll keep this short, but given our recent history (asbestos, PCBs, tetraethyl lead), we're probably going to find ourselves chasing waste streams yet again, only much worse this time around.
Re:good and bad (Score:3, Insightful)
Which pretty well describes ANY technological advance, from the first person to rub two sticks together to produce fire, to the latest Gee-whiz technology.
And once it has been discovered (or invented?), it is here to stay. Once Pandora's box has been opened, you cannot stuff the contents back in.
The best we can do is get the best understanding we can of it, then manage it.
People WILL die, but somewhere down the line it will benefit more people than will die from it.
W
Re:good and bad (Score:4, Insightful)
Unless intelligence augmentation (IA & AI) is near on the horizon to reduce that gap, it's very likely we'll end up destroying ourselves. [gmu.edu]
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No... (Score:3, Insightful)
"Barely survived" means a few thousand people holed up in military bunkers are the last people left on earth, with nuclear winter starting to snow overhead.
As it was we used a few, built a lot more, and we're all doing quite fine. I would say "We survived the creation of nukes by an incredibly comfortable margin".
ideas for nanotechnology (Score:5, Funny)
a replacement for sex toys
a breath-a-lyzer in your thumb! just suck your thumb and you'll find out how drunk you are!
Slashdot Pager, your thumb vibrates when there's a new slashdot post so you can race to be the first person to post on that article
a replacement for SCO
and last but not least, my personal favorite...
replacement for microsoft
2000? "Grey Goo" hypothesis is older than this (Score:3, Interesting)
Biological nanotechnology (Score:3, Interesting)
For example a seed, could be considered as a nanotechnology machine which develops an extraordinary system (tree) by arranging the molecules in it sourrounding.
Re:Biological nanotechnology (Score:3, Funny)
Soviet Russia jokes aside.
I can see the future (Score:3, Funny)
Very few fantasies can't be realized (Score:2)
We've barely begun to break the horizon of humanities potential in the universe.
I think it's very ignorant of people to demonize in-animate objects. It's a way to blame something and not deal with the real problems.
Why don't they have a 5 day waiting period on boards with nails through them?
que Simpsons
Prince Charles (Score:2)
Eh, I doubt that the Britisch crown prince has much ado with the catholic church. Now that prince Charles has expressed alarm, I am sure all scientists will take another woried look at their safety procedures.
Risk Awareness (Score:4, Interesting)
Good article overall. Points out that the extent of nanotechnology is likely to be less than some hope and fear.
The gray goo ideal is hampered by design, energy and speed/movement constraints which means that it's only going to be a problem if we haven't the technology to combat isolated outbreaks.
We can't put the genie back in the bottle, someone is going to study this technology and use it for unfriendly ends. The only question is will we have the knowledge and skills necessary to counter that.
I believe that restrictive regulation would make it more likely that we wouldn't have the resources to fight such threats. I also believe that there is a limited period of vulnerability until all citizens have defenses as part of their normal biotechnological compliment. The less restriction on research in the bio/nano technology arena the faster I believe we can get through this threatening period.
As an aside on "Prey", I've noticed over the years that Mr. Crichton has made it a point to use his status and writing talents against Bio and Nano technologies. I understand that he has every right to do so, but I also believe I've a right to point out such.
*chuckle* it's going to be a VERY interesting couple of decades...
*now* back to my regularly scheduled Thorazine dose...
It's official... (Score:3, Funny)
Welcome to the ranks of VR, worms and cyberspace.
Re:Outsourcing to the extreme!! (Score:3, Interesting)
Because unlike Wesley Crusher, we're real human beings. I've seen plenty of examples of this - for example, the game Alpha Centauri predicted that we wouldn't finish the Human Genome Project until far into the future (when in fact it was completed within years of the game's release).
Re:Outsourcing to the extreme!! (Score:2, Interesting)
The problem is that most people don't account for the exponential nature of technological progress, and instead project linearly based on the *CURRENT RATE* of progress. If more people would view technological change (in aggregate) in the same light as Moore's Law then they'd realize how much faster the future will get here than they realize (notwithstanding *BAD* predictions like flying cars and meal-in-a-pill).
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Re:Outsourcing to the extreme!! (Score:3, Interesting)
The guy says people have historically underestimated the future. This is painfully not true. Think about it: HAL, Flying cars, personal helicopters, nuclear reactors in your house, big settlements on mars.
People ALWAYS take a current trend and "overestimate" what that tech can do. Kurzweil is one of them.
Why?
Because that is what gets peoples attention. This year we have already seen Intel researchers write scientific papers about why Moore's
not DAT, ADAT...big difference (Score:2)
DAT is used on a limited scale for sneakernetting final mixes around, but the two tracks are a severe limitation for 'real' recording - an ADAT master stores each mic on a different track, so you can record and mix/postprod/etc at your leisure, as well as rerecord only cert
Re:DAT is still in use in studios (Score:2)
Re:Gray Goo is a real threat (Score:3, Insightful)
Hoo boy, time to put the brain back online and exercise some critical thinking.
Thankfully, it starts off by rejecting the most implausible forms of the grey goo by focusing just on the biosphere. But here is an alternativ