A Rock Moves In Space 846
theBrownfury writes: "The BBC is reporting here that
a very large Earth collision course asteroid has been discovered. This asteroid, NT7,
was first observed on July 5th and current data suggests an impact date of
February 1st, 2019. NT7 is 2kms wide and on date of impact will be approaching
Earth at 28km/s. An asteroid of this size is large enough to cause continent
wide destruction. However astronomers are still cautious in reporting this
asteroid as the orbit of NT7 has not been fully verified. Current data on
NT7's orbit suggests it orbits the Sun every 837 days and travels in a tilted
orbit from about the distance of Mars to just within the Earth's orbit." The BBC article's headline (and accompanying illustration) are more alarming than the story itself seems to warrant: this asteroid has been given a 0.06 on the Palermo technical scale, which means it shouldn't bump getting run over by a llama off your list of worries.
Drivers (Score:4, Funny)
Listen to the Simpsons. (Score:5, Funny)
Life imitates SatireWire (Score:3, Funny)
Hrm (Score:2, Funny)
Big boost for space tech if it is on course... (Score:5, Funny)
Nothing like a crisis to focus the mind, eh?
Re:Big boost for space tech if it is on course... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Big boost for space tech if it is on course... (Score:4, Funny)
16 years and 7 months.
Re:Big boost for space tech if it is on course... (Score:5, Funny)
We have finally decided on the location for the meeting for the committee that will determine the budget proposal for the committee to plan the catering for the blue-ribbon commission for the removal of the asteroid threat.
Sell tickets? (Score:2)
Don't laugh yet.. :( (Score:4, Insightful)
Hope you don't feel too safe with the fact that NASA and many European astronomers are searching the skies daily for these threats... Someone's letting us down.
(nb yep im an aussie..)
Re:Don't laugh yet.. :( (Score:4, Funny)
If it's something from far away, then unless it were going really fast it wouldn't get here yet.
Re:Don't laugh yet.. :( (Score:4, Interesting)
The rock may be moving quite slowly wrt the place that it departed from, but the sun is moving also, and so is the earth. To expect them to encounter something from "out there" that happens to share their inertial frame of reference... if it did, you wouldn't encounter it. So it will have an inertia more aligned with some other star. Could be quite different from anything local. (It might not, also, but that's not the interesting case.)
Re:Don't laugh yet.. :( (Score:3, Funny)
Calm down? CALM DOWN? You just mentioned three ways the human race could be annihilated that I've never even thought about and there's not a damn thing we can do about it and you want me to CALM DOWN? Well YOU can calm down mister, I'm going out to buy a tin-foil helmet RIGHT NOW!
However what about global earth warming? Oil resources? Malaria? The pest coming back?
Better make that a tin-foil helmet AND a copper torc bracelet!
Local supernovae and other threats? (Score:3, Interesting)
Lots of civilization ending threats face us. Race ending threats face us. Life on Earth ending threats face us. For most of them the odds are basically impossible to calculate. Will we end civilization? Render the human race extinct? Render the Earth unfit for anything but the most primitve life through poisoning the Earth with our waste? It is incalculable, because it depends on making a subjective judgement of whether we can learn to be wise, instead of clever. We are clever enough to build things that could kill us as a side-effect. Are we wise enough not to? That is incalculable.
Astronomical disasters are ones about which we can make reasonable, defensible judgements, and start to enter into actuarial calculations.
Yes, a close enough Supernova burst could destroy civilization. Slashdot has discussed this recently [slashdot.org], and again here [slashdot.org]. 160 to 200 light years was suggested to be the distance beyond which civilization would be safe from a supernova. NASA's picture of the day site has half a dozen articles about eta carinae [nasa.gov], a large variable star that they state is a good candidate for the next supernova in our neck of the woods. It is well beyond that 200 ly limit.
terrorist! (Score:3, Funny)
Re:terrorist! (Score:2, Funny)
Vegas Odds (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Vegas Odds (Score:5, Funny)
NT7 (Score:5, Funny)
Nah (Score:2, Funny)
They will probably just repeat the Windows ME trick, and release "Windows CANDY" in 2019 (so that they could confuse consumers into thinking that that thing MS Marketing had been talking about so long had actually been delivered on), then release the real goods two years later. Rather than the promised 2km asteroid that ends all life on earth, "Windows CANDY" will just be a baseball-sized rock that lands in Ontario, Canada, killing a small boy's pet dog.
So we should be safe from the asteroid until 3rd quarter 2021 at least, at which point it won't matter becuase the UNIX Date Rollover Bug will have plunged the world into anarchy and killed everyone by that time anyway.
Re:Nah (Score:3, Funny)
Quick, before it's too late (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:2, Funny)
And for the love of all that's holy, somebody start having sex with Liv Tyler!
Again? Okay, if it will help save the planet. Hold my calls, I'll be back in a few days...
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:4, Funny)
an asteroid of this size is large enough to cause continent wide destruction
so even if the asteroid turns out to really be on a collision course, we have a 1 in 7 chance of not getting hit. I'll take those odds to Vegas any day.
But if you really think it'll help, i'll get right on the sex bit.
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:3, Funny)
I hope it's Canada.
Oh, wait....
Dibs... (Score:2)
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:4, Funny)
*Sigh* If I must...
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:3, Funny)
Also, are we so consumed with the fossil fuel "crisis" that when a killer asteroid is found on course for earth our first reaction is, "send someone up there to find out if it's got any oil?"
Re:Quick, before it's too late (Score:3, Funny)
It depends on whether you're an optimist - one's half full, the other's half empty.
The Mayan calendar (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:The Mayan calendar (Score:2)
Now we know where Bill Gates came from... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Now we know where Bill Gates came from... (Score:2)
2019! That won't happen in my term.
London tabloids (Score:3, Funny)
See it happen! (Score:5, Interesting)
Just fast-forward to Feb-1 2019, set the center on earth, and zoom in.
Re:See it happen! (Score:2)
Re:See it happen! (Score:4, Informative)
If you nearly miss something, you've come close to missing it, therefore, you've hit it.
If you nearly hit someone, you've come close to hitting it.
GAAH..
Thank you George Carlin, for making me notice that everytime someone says it.
Remember (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Remember (Score:3, Informative)
This is the whole point of the Palermo scale...it takes into account probability of of imact as well as time until impact. As the impact date gets closer and closer, astronomers will be more able to accurately predict the probability of impact. As time gets closer to the impact, the Palermo rating goes up...on the other hand, as time gets closer, a more accurate hit probability can be determined which, in all likelyhood will go down and thusly bring down the Palermo rating.
Besides, a Palermo rating of 0.06 makes it just slightly more than likely that this rock will hit us than some other random unlikely cosmic event happening
What's a better scale is the Torino scale, which is basically an impact threat scale, from 0 to 10, with 10 meaning a very destructive impact will happen very soon. This rock as a Torino rating of 1, so I daresay there's nothing to worry about.
Re:Remember (Score:3, Interesting)
The first half of Lucifer's Hammer is all about the scientists saying "It won't hit us" because they know the statistical unlikeliness of it all. Meanwhile, all the survivalists and sensationalists are getting ready. Then when the Hamner/Brown comet hits (on Hot Fudge Tuesdae, as named in the funniest part of the book) half the world is unprepared 'cause they new how sensationalist it all was.
Its even got the required Space Mission - but they're just up there to study the damn thing, and are as surprised as everyone else when they watch it clobber the earth (and then the confused Chinese try and nuke the USSR - this was written in the 80s).
Good book.
run over by a llama? (Score:4, Funny)
well i was caught in a llama stampede when i was younger, so anyone within a 1000 mile radius of me might wanna consider moving...
Re:run over by a llama? (Score:3, Insightful)
Yeah, but in real life, he'd be less likely, because he's learned his lesson and knows to keep his distance from the speeding llamas...
Palermo scale (Score:2)
Re:Palermo scale (Score:2)
So a Palermo Scale value of 0.06 is not a total joke.
And you thought NT 3.51 was bad? (Score:3, Funny)
On the other hand, announcing a product 17 years before it hits, come on, that's not really serious, even by NT's standards.
You think you know about programming? [sf.net]
Re:And you thought NT 3.51 was bad? (Score:4, Funny)
Oh, crap. Let's see:
1) it's from Microsoft,
2) it's got literally tons and tons of bugs.
Obvious conclusion:
We're all dead because it's bound to crash!
You mean this NT7? (Score:5, Informative)
It doesn't look so bad. -0.14 on the Palermo Scale (recently downgraded?).
Re:You mean this NT7? (Score:2, Informative)
"Astronomers have given the object a rating on the so-called Palermo technical scale of threat of 0.06, making NT7 the first object to be given a positive value."
and yet, in this article [spacedaily.com] it says ""Asteroid 1950 DA is a very interesting object," said Dr. Benny Peiser, a spokesman for Spaceguard UK. It's interesting, "because it is the first Near Earth Object that scores higher than zero on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale.""
(this article was dated Apr 5, 2002)
it seems to me that the author got a bit too jumpy a little too early...
Palermo scale (Score:3, Funny)
You mean slashdot-like moderators can save us from asteroids just by modding the rock down?
I'm impressed!
Better a rock than me.
Hooray! (Score:3, Funny)
a moral imperative (Score:2)
Re:a moral imperative (Score:5, Funny)
and won't *you* feel like shit if she still says no?
Re:a moral imperative (Score:3, Funny)
you can't make somebody love you
you can only stalk them and hope they panic and ive in...
Re:a moral imperative (Score:2)
Why isnt the world testing deflection technology? (Score:2)
Has there ever been any contingouncy planning made in case something like this does happen? Or is it all being kept a secret from the general population (i.e. only 100 of those grey alien ufo's for escape)
A company that did real work into this issue could stand to make a killing. Anyone that figured out a real nice way to make these NEO rocks bounce, blow up, deflect, time phase shift, or tractor away from the earth could pull some mass patents on that and laugh all the way to the bank.
People used to say if man was meant to fly he would have wings. Well, if man was meant to blow up space rocks he would have nukes, and he does.
I've done a little research and.... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Why isnt the world testing deflection technolog (Score:4, Funny)
Well, that's just the problem with our outdated patent system. Not enough incentive for developing killer astroid deflection systems. Before you get the chance to make your royalties, you find out the end of the world is just past your expiration date and those damn generic solutions and open source hackers are already waiting in the wings to save humankind for basement bargin prices. If you want to make any money at all you've pretty well gotta tie up your application for as long as possible and then slap injunctions on all the would-be good samaritan heroes with some killer submarine claims. We can only hope that they'll increase the term for anti-apocalyptic devices - otherwise I just can't think of any incentive to innovate.
If we let this news ruin the next 17 years... (Score:2, Funny)
Hammer of God (Score:2)
Time to break out _The Hammer of God_ by Arthur Clarke. For those of you living under a rock (heh heh) it's a novel about a large rocky mass headed on a collision course with earth and the world-wide pants-shitting that ensues after it's discovered.
Good book.
Petition NASA! Blast it out of the way now! (Score:4, Funny)
Ah, Those Brits (Score:5, Funny)
In short, definitely unwarranted.
BlackGriffen
Pull it into Earth orbit and... (Score:5, Interesting)
2. use it as a platform for whatever;
3. sell pieces of it to whomever;
4. mine it for whatever minerals it may carry;
5.
Re:Pull it into Earth orbit and... (Score:5, Funny)
Well im fresh out of tractor beams today, and I think at 28km/s I wont be pulling along side it in the Pinto. But fear not it will have a use!
We will finally be rid of Britney Spears.
Re:Pull it into Earth orbit and... (Score:3, Funny)
How about making a Deathstar?
Re:Pull it into Earth orbit and... (Score:2)
Sheesh, just as a platform it could be a wonderful addition to science. Depending on the composition of the rock it could be used as a platform for small manufacturing base or a scientific research base or even a destination for space tourists. Be much cheaper than going to the moon for the "money is no object" crowd.
My guess is that data and materials would be the most useful application for the rock, but again, that depends on its composition.
Time's running out! (Score:5, Funny)
Heh teasin =)
Next up: (Score:5, Funny)
Crisis in Washington (Score:5, Funny)
The President later appologised for his mistake blaming it on terrorists who had sabotaged his statement.
Bummer.. (Score:4, Funny)
0.06? (Score:2)
You know what this means... (Score:2)
Quick! Everybody guy a Canyonero!
About LINEAR (the guys who found the big rock) (Score:5, Informative)
I work at Lincoln labs and acutally know the people running the LINEAR project (they are so proud that they are the best in the world, let me tell you). But for the rest of you, here is their website [mit.edu].
They find more than half of the new NEO (Near earth orbit) asteroids each year that are found. They have a telescope down in New Mexico and have the largest CCD (2560x1960 res) in the market. That's the thing that takes a digital image of the sky and compares it to past images to see if any "stars" have moved...i.e asteroid. The higher resolution you can get, the further out you can see. From their webpage, you can see they have found at least 951 NEO's. So there are a LOT of asteroids comming near us. But in space, near is still very far away. So unpack those bunkers and return to Real Life, we're still safe for a while. Also, the rate of finding new NEO's is decreasing, so that means that we've (humans) found most of the asteroids that can endanger us.
(most of that was taken from this [slashdot.org] post of mine from a while ago)
Try the JPL orbit calculator (Score:4, Interesting)
The higher-precision text-based orbital calculator [nasa.gov] is more accurate. (And overloaded right now.) It has 2002 NT7 in its database. Both claim January 28, 2019 is the date of closest approach. Both claim closest approach around 0.8 AU. Remember, this is projecting many orbits ahead, and small-object orbit projection is inherently noisy because minor disturbing forces matter.
Either we'll know it's a definite miss in a few weeks, or this will be a worry for some time to come.
asteroids? (Score:5, Funny)
Palermo scale (Score:5, Interesting)
A Palermo value of 0.06 means that the risk from this object is elevated above the background risk for such objects by about 15%. (The 0.06 is the log of the ratio of the risk to the background risk.) So however worried you were yesterday about collisions with 2 km asteroids, you can be 15% more worried today.
In short, not worth losing sleep over.
Funny you should mention that... (Score:2)
On the Plus Side... (Score:2)
Big deal... (Score:2, Funny)
Recent close approaches (Score:5, Interesting)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/close.html
give distances both in AU and LD (lunar distances) for the dozen or so close passes that happen each month or so.
Not that you should be alarmed.
Palermo Scale (Score:5, Informative)
The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale was developed to enable NEO specialists to categorize and prioritize potential impact risks spanning a wide range of impact dates, energies and probabilities. Actual scale values less than -2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between -2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. Potential impacts with positive Palermo Scale values will generally indicate situations that merit some level of concern.
The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. For convenience the scale is logarithmic, so, for examples, a Palermo Scale value of -2 indicates that the detected potential impact event is only 1% as likely as a random background event occurring in the intervening years, a value of zero indicates that the single event is just as threatening as the background hazard, and a value of +2 indicates an event that is 100 times more likely than a background impact by an object at least as large before the date of the potential impact in question.
Taken from NASA: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/palermo.html
Palermo scale explanation (Score:5, Informative)
So, the palermo value of 0.06 (p is just greater than one) means we are very, very slightly more likely to get hit by NT7 than we are to get hit by another astreroid of equal or greater size before 2019.
About that Graphic (Score:5, Interesting)
Asteroid Impact Centre Site Selected [bbc.co.uk]
Earth at Lower Risk of Impact [bbc.co.uk]
UK Centre to Study Asteroid Threat [bbc.co.uk]
So, yeah, basically you should ignore that image. It's not related to the story in any but the most basic level; it's a picture of an asteroid hitting the Earth... a stock one.
moving in space (Score:4, Insightful)
Regarding the title, "A rock moves in space".
Moving in space is relative. Relative to the earth, *every* rock in space is moving (unless maybe there is something in those Lagrange points, or whatever you call them.)
Further, the solar system is orbiting around the galactic center, and the galaxy (Milky Way) is moving toward the Virgo Cluster of galaxies.
Personally, I don't want to go the the Virgo Cluster. Too many galaxies there to bump into and trigger nasty big-star supernovas in the process. But I have no choice in the matter.
Damned gravity.
2002-NT7 update (Score:5, Informative)
2002-NT7 was discovered 9-Jul-2002
There have been 102 observations (as of 8 hour ago) up thru 22-Jul-2002
Radar images show that the object is between 2 and 2.1km in size. The mass is about 1.1e13 Kg. This is somewhat light for an asteroid of this size. This suggests that it may belong to the "pile of compressed rock" set as opposed the more solid "iron chunk" types.
Impact speed is high, about 28.5 km/s. This speed is due to the nearly "head on" approaches for most of the close approaches.
There is too little data and some of the observations may suffer from systematic errors. So over the next week or two the odds of impacting will change.
Currently the odds of being hit by 2002-NT7 is about 1 in 100,000. The problem comes from how Earth deflects it during some of its close-by approaches.
The orbit of 2002-NT7 takes about 837 days. The path takes out as far as Mars and just inside Earth's orbit.
Close approach dates are:
The odds, given the current limited observations, of impacting us 2019 thru 2051 are slim. The real problems show up in the 2060 and every 7 years after that. Small changes due to the close passes in 2019 thru 2051 make it hard to pin down later on.
If this rock hits the earth then our way of life as we know it would surely end. Such an impact would be on par (but somewhat less) with the impact that ended the Dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
It is not known where on earth it might impact. Too early to tell. Not that is matters for a rock of this size ... anyway on early
will suffer sooner or slightly later.
Looking at the raw data: when one tosses out one set data (all from the same source) that seems to have a systematic error: then things get worse. That is, the limited data minus this one source suggests that the odds of being impacted on or after 2060 are much more likely. But again, more independent observations are needed before one can say all this with more certainty.
IMHO: 2002-NT7 does not have much of a chance to hit us before 2060. From 2060 on, things get really ugly.
Stay tuned ...
Re:2002-NT7 update (clarification) (Score:5, Informative)
The KT event asteroid [nasa.gov] that hit 65 million years and formed the Chicxulub crater [miac.uqac.ca] ago was almost certainly larger. Estimates of that impactor have ranged from 4km to 18km in diameter with more recent evidence suggesting that the smaller size estimates may be more accurate. Others prefer the larger sizes. Even if they are correct and the KT-impactor was on the larger end of the scale, an impact of a 2km asteroid is no trivial matter.
Assuming the same density, the ~2km 2002-NT7 has about 1/8th the mass of KT impactor. Perhaps 1/10th the mass if 2002-NT7 turns out to be a lower than average density asteroid.
When I said:
I should have said:
I want to repeat that the chance of impact prior to 2060, based on the current limited set of observations, is slim (1 in ~100,000 more).
The chance of an 2002-NT7 impact after 2060 is uncertain. It is hard to estimate the location of 2002-NT7 on/after 2060 in part because of the 4 prior close approaches and in part because positions become more uncertain as time goes on.
It is common to consider asteroid positions 100 years or more in the future to uncertain enough as to not be useful to estimate impact risk. This 100 year uncertainty limit gets shorter when one throws in 1 or more close approaches.
While 2002-NT7's orbit position will become better defined with additional data, the risk assessment of the 2060 pass (and beyond) will remain more uncertain for some time. Time (and more accurate observations) will tell how much the next generations will have to worry or not about 2002-NT7.
IMHO, there is nil chance of an impact by 2002-NT7 before 2060. The trend / perturbations on 2002-NT7 suggest that things could get ugly later on. Monitoring of 2002-NT7 over time, plus improved orbit models will tell how much future generations will need to worry about an impact >= 2060.
Re:2002-NT7 update (Score:3, Interesting)
For those of you playing at home, those odds are about 70 times better than the advertised odds of winning the Washington State Lottery.
Think about that next time you plop down your dollar for a Lotto ticket.
Buy asteroid collision insurance with it instead.
25 Jul 2002 update, where to find newer updates (Score:3, Informative)
So far, no pre-discovery images of 2002-NT7 have been found. A search of pre-discovery images is on-going.
I will post new updates to chongo's journal [slashdot.org] over the next few weeks. Please check my journal for the latest 2002-NT7 orbit model information.
Re:IANACM - but this looks highly questionable to (Score:3, Interesting)
You are asking a good question. The reason why the close approaches occur on the same day of the year is because 2002-NT7's orbit is closest to Earth's orbit at one point. That point does shift around. The current model suggests the closest approach occurs at:
The path of 2002-NT7 will next cross earth's orbit plane going upward at a point about 132.1708757 degrees from the Fall Equinox. Now 132.1708757 degrees / 360 degrees = 0.3671413214 of a circle. Using 365.2564 days (Earth's year), 0.3671413214 of a circle * 365.2564 days = about 134.1 days from the Fall Equinox. 134.1 days from Sep 23 (~06 hr UTC) lands one near 1 Feb.
Take a look at this 2002-NT7 orbit [nasa.gov] diagram. The dark blue part of 2002-NT7's orbit is below Earth's plane. The light blue part is above Earth's plane. The yellow line from the Sun (red dot in center) going down and to the right is the 0 degree fall equinox line. The vertical yellow line, 132.1708757 degrees from the equinox line (as measured in the plane of Earth's orbit, not the plane shown on your screen) shows where 2002-NT7 crosses Earth's orbit plane. That crossing spot (the place where the dark/light parts of 2002-NT7's orbit meet near the yellow line), you will notice, is very close to Earth's orbit. That spot is the place where Earth is found on/near Feb 1. No other place on Earth's or 2002-NT7's orbit comes as close.
You ask another good question about deflection:
Not every object that gets within 35000km of Earth enters a geostationary orbit. The reason why 2002-NT7 is not captured by earth is that it is moving about 26.25 km/second as it crosses Earth's orbit plane. It is moving too fast to be captured by Earth and pulled into a orbit around our planet.
FYI: An object orbiting the Earth once a day 35,000 km above the surface is moving about 3 km/second with respect to the center of the Earth. The 26.25 km/second speed of 2002-NT7 is much faster.
BTW: Earth DOES deflect 2002-NT7. The crossing point and angle in inclination do shift a but after a close approach, but not by a huge amount. These close passes make the 2002-NT7 orbit tricky to model.
On a different question that somebody else asked:
Your typical astro/solar system display program that runs on your PC (XEphem, RedShift, TheSky, or even that Java app on the JPL site) uses simplified assumptions that are OK for general approximation of objects that do not have significant encounters. They frequently use point size masses and only take into account the Grav pull of the Sun and major planets. High precision models must use much much much more complex models. For example, in addition to accurate 2002-NT7 observations (to measure its position) one must use a non-point Earth model. That gravity lump called EurAsia has a slightly different "tug" than the Pacific Ocean, for example. Normally that difference is not critical, but when one is trying to predict with high precision year in the future, such details can become important.
Permit me to end with a note about critical NASA mission called GRACE.
There is a very critical mission (largely ignored by the general press) known called GRACE [nasa.gov]. GRACE stands for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. The mission will obtain obtain accurate global and high-resolution determination of both the static and the time-variable components of the Earth's gravity field. This goal will be achieved by making accurate measurements of the inter-satellite range change to within one micron between two co-planar, low altitude polar orbiting satellites, using a microwave tracking system.
GRACE will provide us with an accurate Gravity map which will improve the modeling of very close approaches. I am looking forward to the day with GRACE's gravity maps can be used to establish more detailed close approach orbit models. I wish the GRACE team all the best!
IAACM (I Am A Celestial Mechanic) :-)
and I hope this helps.
Who thought up the name? (Score:3, Interesting)
destruction of the asteroid via nuclear means (Score:3)
check it out here [fas.org]
look at the "blast" heading -- this is mostly what we are concerned with. (i linked to a higher level of the hiarchy in case anyone is interested in the other effects as well.
anyway... you can see from the data that on earth, one megaton bomb can devastate a radious of ~3km -- which is already larger than the asteroid... but i digress, and will try to look at this systematically
1) delivery of the weapon
this is probabbly the most no-brainer of the whole deal. all current ICBMs go into sub-orbit already anyway, strapping a few boosters onto them for escape velocity should not be a big problem.
it is useful to note that the asteroid will be a threat even if no impact occurs on 2019; in fact it would be a much larger threat down the line. however, the frequent encounters with it in the near future gives up plenty of time to approach it and take action.
2) effective-ness of the weapon
this is somewhat harder to determine. see -- the problem is that all of our data on nuclear weapons is earth-based; i.e in a atmospheric environment. -- the 3km effective radius is based on this fact as well -- the destruction is not from the blast of the weapon -- but instead the sudden compressiong / decompression of the atmosphere that transmit the detonation energy to do the destruction. if the asteroid is indeed loosely packet -- much of the energy will just escape; while if the asteroid is solid-packet -- the bomb may not be powerful enough to break it all the way apart.
before we go further -- it is very obvious that the bomb(s) need to be deeply implanted inside the asteroid for maximum effective-ness.
the best scenario to hope for is that the asteroid have a large ice content. the vaporization of the ice would then be the medium of energy transfer -- breaking apart the asteroids into chunks that the earth's atmosphere can handle - which is probabbly the best we can hope for.
similar things can happen with solidified CO2 / methane / whatever. but we won't know about the asteroid's contents until later (more observations).
the good news is that if the asteroid was ever broken apart -- the gravitational force between the pieces should be small enough that they won't meaningfully get back together.
3) possible hiccups
the fact is that simply not enough is known about the behavior of nuclear weapons in vacuum -- which is both very cold, and lack the aforementioned energy transfer medium. so it may be that the weapon is actually quite in-effective in space. furthermore, depending on nuclear bombs to vaporize a whole asteroid is only a dream -- nuclear weapons destroy via shockwaves, and the thermal energy is actually comparatively low for what we need to accomplish.
this basically lead to the fact that if we press the red button, the bomb goes off, and nothing happens to the asteroid except a shockwave rings through its structure but it remains intact.
moreover -- drilling 1km down on an asteroid in as un-proven technology at best -- so there may be tons of problems there.
4) some alternatives
besides straight-up disintergration of the asteroid, there can be other things to try, for example, if you insert bombs in a planar fashion - it *may* be possible to break the asteroid into two or more chunks -- and if it is properly calculated -- it should be possible to get the thing either crash into mars, or get into earth orbit. (on a side note -- this would be very cool -- space elevator baby) and the smaller chunk can be much more easily broken down by nuclear means. (this is assuming the asteroid is a fairly rigid body of iron, etc etc.
i had some other points -- but since this *might* be the end of the world after all -- i am going to go out and try to get laid now.
Re:destruction of the asteroid via nuclear means (Score:3, Informative)
Look on the bright side (Score:3, Funny)
Suddenly it doesn't seem like much of a problem anymore, does it?
Asteroid to hit tommorow (Score:3, Funny)
Reuters
Today in the 17th year of the anti-terror extended presidency, Bush urged everyone on Earth to pray to Jesus to stop the asteroid. He blamed democrats for stopping all efforts to divert destruction but said he had faith everything would be "hunky-dorey."
A summery of the anti-asteroid efforts are as follows:
2002: Republicans reject idea that asteroids exist.
2004: A bill funding more science is rejected as "pork barrel".
2006: Republicans reject theorey asteroids have ever hit Earth in it's 4000 year history, and therefore never will.
2008: Republicans admit asteroids may exist, but if one did hit the Earth it wouldn't be that bad.
2010: Despite mounting evidence that the asteroid will have a direct hit, Bush rejects the science as "shakey and controversial."
2012: UN resolution on asteroid vetoed by US as being too intrusive.
2014: Senate plan to stop asteroid rejected by Bush as "too costly." Tax cut for rich is passed.
2016: Emperor Bush rejects an internation coalition to stop the asteroid as "flawed."
NASA may soon learn how to deflect (Score:4, Interesting)
Lo is trying to map the low energy trajectories through the Solar System which result from calculating n-body gravitational problems for all the objects in the System. Apparently there are tube-like trails between the Sun and the Oort Belt along which objects can travel theoretically without thrust, and the dinosaur killer is thought to have come down an "offramp" to the Earth much like Shoemaker-Levy apparently did with Jupiter.
This technology was used in the Genesis Mission [genesismission.org] and chaos theory applies to the low-energy halo orbit around a Sun-Earth libration point. After orbitting around this point a few times the robot will (without thrust) return to a sample capture point in Earth orbit.
While I do not yet understand the math itself, it seems likely that this Rock is in a somewhat chaotic orbit and that small nudges can have very large effects on its trajectory down the way. A decade or two may not be long enough, or we might even set up a pattern which will smash us on a later orbit, but the technology is being developed right now.
Re:Picture (Score:2)
Re:AHHH! (Score:2)
Re:"Palmero Technical Scale"? (Score:5, Informative)
That should help a tiny bit
Re:Should be divertable (Score:2)
OTOH
date 2004
In todays news, the nuclear device set near the Doom asteroid successfully changed its course, it will be here tuesday.
Re:Should be divertable (Score:2)
Re:Okayyy... (Score:3, Insightful)
Be realistic. Even those who insist on calling the US names all the time generally wouldn't accuse us of being inactive. Should this happen, I would be willing to bet that the US would foot quite a bit more than their share of the bill (calculated either way that you gave above), and take charge of the operation to make sure it's completed. And when it was over, the US would say, "Yout guys all owe us one." After which everyone would go back to hating us.