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Space Science

120,000 km Is Still Too Close 670

texchanchan writes: "BBC report: '...on 14 June, an asteroid (maybe as big as 120 meters in diameter)... made one of the closest-ever recorded approaches to the Earth. ..' but was only discovered three days later. This is well within the moon's orbit. 'If 2002MN had hit the Earth, it would have caused local devastation similar to that which occurred in Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908...'"
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120,000 km Is Still Too Close

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  • Just think.... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by simetra ( 155655 )
    Without Tunguska, what would we compare these things to? Krakatoa?

    • Re:Just think.... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by s20451 ( 410424 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:39PM (#3738774) Journal
      We would probably compare it to megatons of TNT. The Tunguska event corresponded roughly to a 15-30 megaton explosion [freeserve.co.uk]. By comparison, the largest thermonuclear device ever exploded in the atmosphere by the United States was the Castle Bravo [aracnet.com] test in 1954, at 15 megatons.
      • Re:Just think.... (Score:2, Interesting)

        by EvanED ( 569694 )
        Or, just like we compare most things to, Hiroshima Bombs. (What ever happened to the "Nagasaki Bomb" unit? Why it it always the "Hiroshima Bomb"?)
      • Re:Just think.... (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Mr.Intel ( 165870 )
        By comparison, the largest thermonuclear device ever exploded in the atmosphere by the United States was the Castle Bravo test in 1954, at 15 megatons.

        And the largest thermonuclear device ever exploded in the atmosphere period was done by the Soviets in 1961 [hiroshima.jp] and was ~50MT.

  • U.S. Govt (Score:3, Interesting)

    by sheepab ( 461960 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:33PM (#3738714) Homepage
    but was only discovered three days later.

    Id like to thank the United States government for CUTTING BACK funds to search for stuff like this. I think currently we map 5% of the skies? No wonder it was discovered 3 days later, it was in the other 95% of the skies we dont have enough money to look at.
    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Midnight Thunder ( 17205 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:36PM (#3738745) Homepage Journal
      Then again surely other nations should have their own programs in place to detect this sort of thing? I am not saying the US is right their choice, just that they aren't the only nation with a space program, not doing anything about this.
      • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:4, Insightful)

        by AmigaAvenger ( 210519 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:37PM (#3738762) Journal
        And I would like to thank the government of Australia, who, unlike the US, completely cancelled anything and everything remotely related to asteroid research.
        • by Anonymous Coward
          And I would like to thank the government of Australia, who, unlike the US, completely cancelled anything and everything remotely related to asteroid research.

          Convince them they can get rid of illegal immigrants by placing them on passing asteroids. That'll get funding back in a hurry.

    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:2, Informative)

      There is a wonderful webpage with Quotes On Unpreparedness For Preventing Asteroid Impacts [rockprophecy.com]

      My favorite quote is from Dr. David Morrison
      Only a few astronomers are engaged in the search for potentially threatening comets and asteroids, in fact the total number of people working on this problem is less than the staff of one McDonalds
      • by Peyna ( 14792 )
        Yeah, but 1 person on that team is probably smarter than the collective brain of the people working at that McDonalds.
      • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Interesting)

        by FreeUser ( 11483 )
        My favorite quote is from Dr. David Morrison

        Only a few astronomers are engaged in the search for potentially threatening comets and asteroids, in fact the total number of people working on this problem is less than the staff of one McDonalds

        This, even more than the annoying and useless nature of children, epitomizes why we as human beings deserve extinction. If we can't be bothered to put even a trace of effort in fending off a danger that has a demonstrated track record of eradicating entire classes of species o this planet (including virtually every surface animal larger than a medium-sized rodent at one time), then we, in our collective and profound stupidity, absolultely deserve to be eradicated and replaced by a more competent species, likely one that will emerge some tens of millions of years hence from some small creature poking around our ashes.
        • So does that mean that every other living species also deserves extinction? I don't see chimps, apes, dolphins, or birds preparing to either deflect/survive an inpact. It is not our (human) responsibility, job, or right to play mother to the world and protect anything and everything. It is not as if we caused the asteroid to come to us.

          Someday we might have the ability to prevent such a happening, but if one does occure in my lifetime and wipes out a few thousand species, I'm not going to feel guilty that I might have been able to prevent it.
    • by Anonymous Coward
      Don't worry, if/when some city gets flattened somewhere, the world will be forced to deal with this threat. Perhaps the USA will even declare a "war on asteroids" and spend trillions of dollars on hunting down rogue asteroids. At least we know there is an entire generation of people trained to demolish Asteriods [atariage.com] in an efficient manner.
    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:5, Informative)

      by BranMan ( 29917 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:44PM (#3738825)
      In all fairness, the article states that the path of the asteroid was on a line with the sun. There is no way Earth based telescopes could have seen it, even had they known exactly where to look.

      This will become more scary in the future, when there is some capability to deal with an asteroid on a collision course. When we get to that point, we'll be complacent and will eventually end up being sucker-punched by one of these asteroids coming "out of the sun".
      • by ryanvm ( 247662 )
        In all fairness, the article states that the path of the asteroid was on a line with the sun. There is no way Earth based telescopes could have seen it, even had they known exactly where to look.

        Fools! They should just slap a sheet of welder's glass [utoledo.edu] on their telescopes.

        Where do I pick up my Nobel Prize?
      • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Restil ( 31903 )
        This is not entirely true.

        It approached the earth from the direction of the sun, but that does not mean that it has always resided within the orbit of earth. Although I haven't seen what the orbit looks like, there's a good chance that the orbit is highly elliptical and therefore, it spends a good amount of time outside the earth's orbit frequently enough to have been spotted in the past, assuming we were searching enough.

        Also, just because an asteroid resides within the earth's orbit, does not mean we can't observe it, even from the ground. It just limits the amount of time each day that it is visible. Both venus and mercury are within the earth's orbit, but we're still able to observe them from the ground.

        There will always be blind spots. And there will always be comets that are heading this way that we've never had the chance to observe because they were never close enough. The best we could do is get 100% of the asteroids that orbit the sun nearby.

        -Restil
    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Insightful)

      by toupsie ( 88295 )
      Id like to thank the United States government for CUTTING BACK funds to search for stuff like this. I think currently we map 5% of the skies? No wonder it was discovered 3 days later, it was in the other 95% of the skies we dont have enough money to look at.

      1. What would we have done if found out 1 month before it passed by Earth? Send Bruce Willis out to blow it up with a nuclear bomb? Get a really big pool cue and bank shot it off Mars?

      2. Why can't Europe get off its butt and save mankind for change? Why is it always the taxpayers of the United States that have to save the Earth? We did enough in the 20th Century. Its time for us to take a century and let France save the Earth for a change. God knows we saved their asses enough.

      • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:2, Insightful)

        by james_orr ( 574634 )

        1. What would we have done if found out 1 month before it passed by Earth? Send Bruce Willis out to blow it up with a nuclear bomb? Get a really big pool cue and bank shot it off Mars?

        This particular asteroid wouldn't have been the end of the world, only a section of it. If it had been on a collision course with a populated area and we detected it, people could have been evacuated.
        • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Insightful)

          by toupsie ( 88295 )
          This particular asteroid wouldn't have been the end of the world, only a section of it. If it had been on a collision course with a populated area and we detected it, people could have been evacuated.

          Uh, excuse me? Evcuate an area the size of Siberia? Where are you going to put millions and millions of refuges. When an asteroid hits the Earth, you don't try to figure out who to get out of the way, you start praying to your favorite deity. There would be no way we could move all the folks. Just look at what happens in Florida when they have Hurricanes and try to evacuate folks.

        • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Desperado ( 23084 )
          If it had been on a collision course with a populated area and we detected it, people could have been evacuated.

          Interesting thought but, I'm not sure we'd even know what hemishphere to evacuate.

          Recall the pondering and headscratching that goes on whenever one of our larger satellites' orbit decays. The speculation on where it will come down would be downright amusing if it weren't so serious.

          Any astrophysisists out there know how well we could calculate the impact area?

          • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Informative)

            by tgibbs ( 83782 )
            Recall the pondering and headscratching that goes on whenever one of our larger satellites' orbit decays. The speculation on where it will come down would be downright amusing if it weren't so serious.
            Actually, satellite decay is a much harder problem, because it depends upon the friction with the atmosphere, which is variable. An object coming in from outside is actually rather simpler. In the unlikely event that anybody happens to be watching.
    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jdgreen7 ( 524066 )
      But then again, why fund something that we can't do anything about? Until we have the technology in place to prevent an asteroid collision, what good does it do to know in advance if we're toast?

      I can see that we may be able to relocate people away from the blast zone, but that would probably be difficult to predict precisely... Imagine telling the entire state of California to quickly get 2000 km away from LA... in the next 24 hours...
      • But then again, why fund something that we can't do anything about? Until we have the technology in place to prevent an asteroid collision, what good does it do to know in advance if we're toast?

        Sure, it wouldn't benefit you. But those of us with the foresight to have our escape pods ready will be sitting pretty.

        Secret Freemason-built counter-earth for rich people on the opposite side of the sun, here I come!

        ----------
        We all live under Monkey Law [monkeylaw.org].

    • If they did notice something on time, do you think they'd actually be able to do anything about it? Maybe they could find some professional oil drillers on an oil platform somewhere, and they might be able to help destroy the asteroid from the inside. But other than that, I can't think of any other way they could stop it. We're doomed.
    • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:5, Insightful)

      by unicron ( 20286 ) <unicron AT thcnet DOT net> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:57PM (#3738928) Homepage
      Ok, but we want 5 more bucks a week from everyone so that we can build the equipment to watch all the sky, all the time..oh, and we'll need it for an indefinate amount of time because we need to pay people to man the equipment.

      Nothing on you, but this hypocrisy is everywhere. I live in Nevada, and I remember a few years ago the whole community was up in arms about the low pay teachers got and the horrible conditions of the schools including overcrowding and buildings that were falling apart. So November rolls around, and on the ballot is a bill to help teachers out and repair/build new schools. 2% Yes, 98% no.

      That's human nature. People love to bitch until it's going to cost them time or money. I'm not exactly sure of the exact odds of our planet going to crap do to a massive asteroid collision, but I'm fairly sure some 7 to 8 digit numbers are in the equation. If most people saw an "Asteroid Detection & Prevention" bill on their ballot, they'd laugh themselves stupid.

      I really don't think this is offtopic either, I'm pointing out that watching 100% of the sky would be no simple or cheap task, and it's completely not worth it considering what an incredible long shot it would be to actually ever have to worry about it.
      • Re:U.S. Govt (Score:3, Interesting)

        by The Cat ( 19816 )
        So November rolls around, and on the ballot is a bill to help teachers out and repair/build new schools. 2% Yes, 98% no.

        That's human nature.


        It's also because we're already paying money in torrential floods for education (up to $9K per student per year in some states) and getting almost nothing in return except exquisitely appointed administrative offices. We're *way*
        overtaxed as it is.

        Ever wonder just where all the money is?

        - Never any new books
        - No supplies
        - No athletic equipment
        - No uniforms
        - No funded clubs
        - No funded extracurricular activities
        - No (or little) technology
        - No (or few) full time librarians
        - No (or few) full time support staff
        - No air conditioning
        - Classes conducted in trailers
        - Teachers always underpaid
        - Buildings falling apart

        Yet, somehow, we are spending over a quarter million *per year* on each classroom in some cases. Say the teacher makes $40K. Where is the other TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS A YEAR????

        Now, to bring this back on topic:

        What guarantee is there that money allocated for this project won't end up in the paneling and mahogany desk for some executive's office instead of going to equipment and research staff? That would be a good priority if funding is approved.

        Just another $0.02
  • by TellarHK ( 159748 ) <tellarhk@@@hotmail...com> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:34PM (#3738729) Homepage Journal
    With news like this coming in every month or so, we might as well start saying the Asteroids have Already Won(tm).
    • With news like this coming in every month or so, we might as well start saying the Asteroids have Already Won(tm).

      Only if we start the wholesale shredding of our constitution in order to support destroying the asteroids. Which of course, wouldn't really be necessary and, in any event is already occuring anyway, at the behest of some militant, islamic fundamentalist terrorists, who have (in this respect, at least) already won.
  • It seems logical that it would not be visible when traveling 'out of the sun.' Most telescopes wouldn't be able to resolve anything against that background. What about radar though? Would that be able to pick up an incoming object from a sufficient distance? At least to give better than -1 hour warning?

  • by ivrcti ( 535150 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:35PM (#3738737)
    I'm sure glad it wasn't talking on it's cell phone!
  • by Titusdot Groan ( 468949 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:35PM (#3738744) Journal
    Every time we hear about one of these it's closer than the last time.

    Is somebody aiming these things?
    • Don't ask questions you don't really want to know the answers to! ::)
    • Clendathu (Score:5, Funny)

      by GuyMannDude ( 574364 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:41PM (#3738790) Journal

      Every time we hear about one of these it's closer than the last time.

      Is somebody aiming these things?

      Analysis shows that they are originating from a far-away planet. An ugly planet. A bug planet.

      GMD

  • "that the space object was only detected on 17 June"

    I didnt really want to know that.
  • by kaladorn ( 514293 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:37PM (#3738759) Homepage Journal
    ... to reach this point, when we understand our odds were so crappy. Oddly, we managed to live through a lot of these events before, and have survived a few thousands of years of recorded history without a problem.

    Something tells me that the people pushing this fear either have an interest in investments in related science or in (gasp) selling newspapers or advertising space!

    If we get hit by a big rock, we'll dust ourselves off. If there is an ELE, we'll have a challenge. Maybe the best thing for the human race, all things considered. At least it could give us a unified rallying point....
    • Oddly, we managed to live through a lot of these events before, and have survived a few thousands of years of recorded history without a problem.

      There's a slight difference between the present and when such events occured in the past: A thousand years ago, nobody in Europe would have noticed if half of North America was flattened by an asteroid.

      The probability of an asteroid wiping out the human race is miniscule. The probability of an asteroid killing large numbers of people is not.
    • If you lived in Tunguska in 1908 you probably wouldn't be so glib.

      But I agree, worrying about it is useless... All the indignation seems to ignore the following two facts:

      1) If the gub'ment did know about it, they would tell us.
      2) There is anything they could do about it if they knew about it. Morgan Freeman ain't President and Bruce Willis ain't going to save you folks!

      As an astronomer friend of mine used to say -- "If there was an asteroid heading for the earth why would they tell us?".

    • Amazing how we survived to reach this point, when we understand our odds were so crappy. Oddly, we managed to live through a lot of these events before, and have survived a few thousands of years of recorded history without a problem.
      What's a few thousand years? Cosmologists, astrophysicist, geologists, evolutionary biologists, and those other troublemakers, they all think in terms of millions of years.

      So we haven't had anything really nasty happen for five thousand years? Big deal. The last big round of extinctions occurred maybe 40,000 years ago. Maybe it'll be another 40,000 years, but I wouldn't bet the future of my species on that assumption! These are regular events. If you believe some theories of evolution, such disasters helped create our own species.

  • why worry? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by peter303 ( 12292 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:38PM (#3738767)
    If it happens very infrequently,
    and you cant do anything about,
    and cant really see it,
    you just waste a lot of mental energy.
  • wasn't there a speculation that the terrible devestation in siberia was caused by a small piece of anti-matter?
    • Re:siberia (Score:3, Interesting)

      by lokki ( 585269 )
      There are all kinds of theories as to what happened at Tunguska, up to and including a micro black hole passing thru the earth. The best one has gotta be involving Tesla and his "death ray". http://www.parascope.com/en/0996/tesla4.htm
  • by Vengie ( 533896 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:41PM (#3738795)
    Moon From Earth: 240000 miles. "Shell" of space: Earth's Radius (~4000) + 240000 [4/3 * 244000^3 * pi] - [4/3 4000^3 * pi]. Thats still an awfully large volume of space compared to the actual size of the earth itself. Near-misses are going to be awful lot more common than an actual head-on collision. Enough sensationalism people.
  • Don't worry (Score:5, Funny)

    by Washizu ( 220337 ) <bengarvey@co m c a s t . net> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:42PM (#3738796) Homepage
    We'll see any real asteroid threats about 3 days sooner.
  • C'mon, we all know that, no matter how close an asteroid comes, the governments of Earth aren't going to change a single thing about trying to detect them. It's kind of like (srry for this, but it's all I could think of) terrorist attacks...we don't actually do anything about terrorism until we take a gigantic hit.

    Until an asteroid actually smacks into Earth, the governments (specificly U.S) will continue to cut back funding for searching for these things. Hopefully, when an asteriod finally DOES hit us, it'll be one of the smaller ones, and only knock out a few thousand/million people.
  • Oh, the article! (Score:4, Interesting)

    by pq ( 42856 ) <rfc2324&yahoo,com> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:42PM (#3738801) Homepage
    Space-based telescopes, such as Hubble [...] are the only means of searching for asteroids in the daytime sky.

    Yeah, right! The author has no idea how carefully STScI checks the HST pointing to make sure you don't look anywhere near the Sun...

    The only way to detect these suckers coming in from the Sun side is radar or spacecraft telescopes at the Lagrange points, not earth-orbiting scopes. Those are just a handful of objects, though: for the vast majority, I expect robotic camera surveys are quite sufficient, if someone coughs up the money.

    Alas, if one of these hits the earth, then "the terrorists will already have won"(TM) - or rather, they won't need to win.

  • by warpSpeed ( 67927 ) <slashdot@fredcom.com> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:42PM (#3738802) Homepage Journal
    'If 2002MN had hit the Earth, it would have caused local devastation similar to that which occurred in Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908...'"

    These guys have obviously not tried my three alarm chilli and some of my homebrew. Talk about destruction... thank god there were no open flames near by last time.

  • They say that we couldn't see this one because it came from the direction of the sun- but it also wasn't big enough to cause any global damage, just to mess up about 2000 square km.

    See, I figure, anything big enough to do some real hurt coming from the direction of the sun, we should be able to notice by the eclipse...

    "Gee, I didn't hear anything in the news about an eclipse- and since when did the moon get that shape?"

    Run for your lives if you ever see an unscheduled eclipse, folks. Though I don't know where you'd run to, only that running would surely get your mind off of your impending doom.

    Have a nice day!
  • "2002MN"

    Does that stand for "Near Miss 2002" (in reverse, of course, so as to not sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt)?
  • Why is this always such a big issue? We all know that the thick layer of pollution around our planet will cause asteroids hurtling towards earth at a fantastic velocity to break up the size of a chihuahua anyways.

    I mean really, you sit there and watch the Simpsons how many times and you still haven't learned anything?
  • by Dutchmaan ( 442553 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:51PM (#3738879) Homepage



    .
  • Earth has celestial objects come really close all the time! It shouldn't be posted on Slashdot unless the asteroid wiped out all of humanity!
  • by recursiv ( 324497 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:53PM (#3738901) Homepage Journal
    120,000 km sounds close, but consider this:
    The Earth is about 7,926 miles (12,756 km) in diameter. Roughly 12,000 km, or about a tenth of the flyby distance. The chance of any object that comes within 120,000km of actually hitting the earth is about (0.1)^2, or roughly 1%. This is still unsettlingly likely, but it's not exactly doomsday.
  • by chinton ( 151403 ) <chinton001-slashdot.gmail@com> on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:54PM (#3738907) Journal
    And it appears to have crashed into the BBC's web server...
  • 2,000 square kilometres is a lot of destroyed real estate if one of these things ever hits a populated or coastal area. Give the Defense Department the responsibility for defending us against these things. They are the only ones that might get the budget to do it.
  • Oh Yeah?!? (Score:4, Funny)

    by rutledjw ( 447990 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:55PM (#3738915) Homepage
    when 2,000 square kilometres of forest were flattened.

    Then it's getting close to what a rogue Forrest Ranger can do in Colorado!

  • by xtal ( 49134 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @04:58PM (#3738936)
    No politician will spend the money on this until it's already too late. No amount of lobbying is going to change this, and the amount of money isn't even that large. IIRC some of the projects were only looking for a few million dollars. You don't need hordes of astronomers - you just need the automated equipment to locate and track asteroids in the sky. Much of the technology already exists, projects like NEAT and others have been very successful.

    Until there is a major loss of life due to an impact, there isn't going to be an research. Just hope that you're not under it, that it's not mistaken for an "act of terrorism", triggering a thermonuclear war, and that it's not much bigger than a hundred meters or so, like this one. Unless, of course, you're willing to live like a pauper and do the work yourself. I'm not.

    There really is little you can do. So don't worry about it. The odds aren't really that high, but you don't know when your number is going to come up, either. Hopefully China will put a base on the moon and play "mine's bigger than yours" to everyone's benefit.

    Makes you wonder if all the hoopla surrounding SETI; all that computing power; and all that money might be better spent scanning the night sky for dark blobs that might end life HERE as opposed to looking for little green men on hopelessly far away stars.

    • No politician will spend the money on this until it's already too late.

      This is one of those things that's impossible to know for sure, but they're probably making the right decision in this case. Consider this: The odds are rather low that in the next 100 years a large meteorite would cause a loss of life that would in any way compare to the more certain threats to life that we currently spend our money on.

      Also consider that in 100 years, constructing a meteorite defense system would probably be a trivial task well within our means and budget. Why waste all our resources struggling to do it wrong now, when we can wait until we're advanced enough to deal with the problem?

  • Couldnt we build something similar to SETI that would distribute the load among thousands of cpus to compute the chances of these near earth objects trying to knock us out of existance ?

    I understand SETI being useful and all that, but its gonna be a sad day if those Aliens reach us a couple of days after our extinction.

    They might just think that cockroaches ruled the planet :(
  • See? (Score:2, Funny)

    by Luveno ( 575425 )
    This is why the US government needs to get Bruce Willis under contract.
  • What are the odds (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Sludge ( 1234 )
    That a rock in space detected as an asteroid is part of a bigger cluster?
  • by gwernol ( 167574 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:02PM (#3738964)
    The earth is 12,000km in diameter (approximately). The asteriod is 120m in diameter and passed within 120,000km of earth. Working in just two dimensions because that's how the earth will appear as a target to the passing asteroid, then:

    1) "surface area" of the earth is:

    A = pi * r^2 = 3.14 * 6,000^2 = 110,000,000 square kilometers

    2) The area within the 120,000km radius is:

    A = pi * r^2 = 3.14 * 60,000^2 = 11,000,000,000 square kilometers

    3) The area of the asteroid is in practice infinitesimal compared with either of these measurements.

    So to some approximation, the chances of the asteroid hitting earth if it travels within 120,000 km of the planet is:

    110,000,000/11,000,000,000 = 0.01 = 1%

    This is certainly not a zero probability, but it is still pretty small.

    Of course this ignores a lot of factors, including the Earth's gravity well and the relative vectors of the two objects. A real calculation would reveal different probabilities.

    But even when one of these asteroids passes this close - which is only known to have happened 6 times since we've been able to record these events (about 50 years?) - there is still only about a 1 in 100 chance it will hit the planet.

    I'm going to be worrying a lot more about travelling on the highway than I am about asteroid collisions.

    • by bravehamster ( 44836 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:13PM (#3739027) Homepage Journal
      I'm going to be worrying a lot more about travelling on the highway than I am about asteroid collisions.


      Yeah, but if you crash on the highway, you and your kids might die. If an asteroid hits the earth, millions or billions could die. So on a personal level, driving is more dangerous, but we're talking about the survival of the species here. It's not something to ignore.


    • 3) The area of the asteroid is in practice infinitesimal compared with either of these measurements.

      So to some approximation, the chances of the asteroid hitting earth if it travels within 120,000 km of the planet is:

      110,000,000/11,000,000,000 = 0.01 = 1%

      This is certainly not a zero probability, but it is still pretty small.

      Of course this ignores a lot of factors, including the Earth's gravity well and the relative vectors of the two objects. A real calculation would reveal different probabilities.


      I think the asteroid PASSED AT a distance of 120k km. So it did not pass WITHIN a distance of 120k km.

      So the likelyhood to hit earth was ... 0%. Absolutely ZERO.

      Of course it would be nice to know the incomming in advance. I prefered to take a flight to Australia in case it hits Europe and vice versa. But very likely the mass panic on earth would prevent much live saving in such circumstances.

      angel'o'sphere
    • Better math (Score:3, Informative)

      by Shimmer ( 3036 )
      Assume:

      Incoming asteriod is a point particle.

      Diameter of the Earth is 12,000km.

      Asteroid will pass within 120,000km of Earth's center (possibly less).

      The question then becomes:

      Choose a random point within a circle of radius 120,000km.

      What is the probability that this point lies within a circle of radius 6000km?

      In other words, what are the relative sizes of the two circles?

      (pi * 6000^2)/(pi * 120000^2) = 0.0025 = 0.25%

      -- Brian

  • by Alien54 ( 180860 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:07PM (#3738998) Journal
    In no particular order
    1. Scientists are still assesing the odds on this, as far as what is something to freak about, and why isn't.
    2. a number of the Near Ear Orbit tracking pages are properly showing distances not only in Astronomical Units, but also in Lunar distances. This is because for close earth passage the fractions get unweildy, and people freak out at terribly small numbers. That said, a million miles is roughly 4 lunar distances, the sun is somewhat under 400 lunar distances away, etc. It's a good yard stick because people can think with it.
    3. odd factoid: since the moon is about 2,000 miles in diameter, this lets you estamate how big the earth would be in the sky if you were standing on the Moon. The Moon is smaller than the distance across of North America or the Nation of Brazil. Imagine an appropriately sized globe in the sky, and there you go.
    4. This object did come kinda close. If you make the analogy of the average height of a human equals the size of the earth (5 to 6 feet), then the moon is roughly 200 feet away. In this scenario, the asteroid is roughly like a very high speed BB Pellet (or smaller) wizzing by at a distance of 30 ft or so.
    5. Distance estimates I saw said about one sixth the distance of earth to the moon, about 40,000 miles (reports I saw in Sky and Telescope here [skyandtelescope.com], pretty diagram included)
    6. You can query the Nasa Near Earth Object Database here [nasa.gov]
    7. Veterans in Combat are much more non-chalant than civilians about the risks of small high speed objects in the space about them. Of course, they usually have the option to duck.
  • Assuming this was made of rock, hit land, and only moving at 10Km/sec, It would have been accelerated by gravity during the fall to somewhere around 11.2Km/sec and yielded a crater something on the order of 1Km diameter and 0.2Km deep. (a bit smaller than the crater in arizona) It would have also caused a magnitude 6.6 earthquake.

    for other possibilities, see: this page [umd.edu]
  • by killmenow ( 184444 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:29PM (#3739192)
    OK, I think we've all seen/read/heard the theories of what would happen if a large asteroid hit Earth, but what if a giant asteroid hit the moon?

    How big would it have to be to knock the moon from its orbit? Or even alter the moon's orbit at all? And if so, what impact on our environment here would it have? If we had no moon, no tides, etc., what would that do to earth life?
  • by Wolfier ( 94144 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:39PM (#3739337)
    8:03 P.M. EST

    Bush declares a "War on Asteroids".

    Bush: Our nation faces a threat to our freedoms, and the stakes could not be higher. We are the target of enemies who boast they want to kill -- kill all Americans, kill all Jews, kill all Christians, kill all Muslims, and kill all mankind. We've seen that type of hate before -- although they're near misses, the only possible response is to confront it, and to defeat it.

    This enemy tries to hide behind a peaceful cosmos, yet its murderous intent is obvious.

    We will, no doubt, face new challenges. Make no mistake. Although we have absolutely no idea where you are, when you'll come, or even how big you are - wherever you are, whether in our solar system, in our galaxy, and outside the galaxy, we WILL track you down, and we'll defeat you.

    Thank you.

    [APPLAUSE]
  • by Zspdude ( 531908 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @05:49PM (#3739466) Homepage
    Before you run a simple test, think about what you are going to do if the test is positive. Then think about what you will do if the result is negative. If they are the same, don't do the test.

    Do yourself a favor and think about it. Scary stuff this may be, but how is it news?? Enlighten me.

  • by guttentag ( 313541 ) on Thursday June 20, 2002 @06:10PM (#3739684) Journal
    Once again, an asteroid-threat article's graphic blows the story out of proportion (yes, they included "Not to scale" this time, but how many people noticed?).

    Anyone remember this FUD [cnn.com] from CNN three months and one day ago? That asteroid came from the direction of the sun [slashdot.org] as well.

    At any rate, our scientists are getting better. Last time they didn't know about the asteroid until four days after it missed us. This time they learned of the asteroid three days after the fact. At this rate, they should be able to tell us when we've been hit by a killer asteroid on the same day it hits us.

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