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Space Science

Flare Sends A Gigaton Of Solar Detritus Toward Earth 148

Posted by timothy from the ball-of-incandescent-gas dept.
Dr. Zowie writes: "This morning at about 10:00 UT, a major explosion occured on the Sun. The solar X-ray output went up by over 1,000 times. About a billion tons of material are speeding toward Earth at over a million miles per hour, and should hit sometime in the next couple of days. Low latitude aurorae and anomalies in radio communications and power service are likely consequences. You can see the event from the SOHO spacecraft's home page -- images and movies are here. In the movies, watch for the burst of radiation hitting SOHO about 13:00 UT -- that's a high energy proton storm caused by the flare itself. You can also see the earthly effects of a similar event from last year."
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Flare Sends A Gigaton Of Solar Detritus Toward Earth More

Flare Sends A Gigaton Of Solar Detritus Toward Earth

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  • Get that sunblock!
    • Forget sunblock (or no more than usual), bring change for payphones. Mobile communications (yes, that may include wireless networks) will be hit *hard* by this. The aurorae will look good, tho.

      Services which may be affected include:
      * Mobile phones
      * International internet connectivity (satellites will be incommunicado, oceanic cables only ppl)
      * GPS and other forms of satellite navigation
      * Any other technology that relies on electromagnetic radiation.

  • Another resource (Score:1, Redundant)

    by iamklerck ( 445579 )
    Another great resource for information on solar activity is SpaceWeather.com [spaceweather.com].

    NASA [nasa.gov] always has several informative mailing lists [nasa.gov] that can at times be very interesting.
    • These discharges sometimes make a sound, [ibmpcug.co.uk] especially when there is associated Aurora.

      For sure, I will be out with my VLF reciever to see if there are any whistlers. Ideally, one would decamp immediately to northern Sweden or Alaska to be certain of getting under some Aurora. Its quite interesting that the sound of Aurora and solar flare activity arent used in Discovery Channel programmes, news programmes & such like; its sounds MUCH better than the cheezy muzak that they normally use to illustrate the moving pictures.

    • Given the amount of grief these events cause to power lines, there must be a fair amount of electromagnetic energy available at the Earth's surface.

      Does anyone know how easy, or cost-effective it would be to collect and store some of the energy from solar activity, either on a national/state scale, or just over a few hundred metres ?

      I realise that suitable events might be infrequent, but they might be a useful renewable energy resource if the amount were significant, even if it just reduced the load on conventional systems for a few days every so often.

      Or would the "Wh" not be worth the hassle ...?

  • A Relative Number (Score:1, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward
    1 billion tons == 1,666 WTCs according to media reports estimating the weight of the WTC rubble at 600,000 tons.

  • The sky is falling .... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by davidu ( 18 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @01:46AM (#2345436) Homepage Journal
    The sky is falling...

    Here's my mirror of the two coolest "wallpaper" size images:

    The Blue One [66.28.14.53]

    The Green One [66.28.14.53]

    -davidu
  • And we're supposed to have rain the next couple days! After months of mostly clear skies! Aaaarghgh!
  • Shouldn't we be able to calculate time of impact a little more precisely than this?

    • Re:should hit sometime in the next couple of days? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Yazeran ( 313637 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:16AM (#2345495)
      In theory yes, but remember that this plasma is charged particles and such interact with magnetic fields. The inner solar system is a mess of magnetic fields. Most of these are made by the sun itself, and as such it is not a homogenious field! The sun has no fixed magnetic poles like earth or a bar magnet, thus the solar magnetic field is in a constant state of flux. This insteady magnetic environment will affect the speed and direction of the plasmas ejected from the sun, giving rise to large uncertainties in the arival time.


      Yours Yazeran


      Plan: to go to Mars one day with a hammer.

    • Yeah, what he said - also the particle stream will most likely be spread out over several days.

      For example, look at the various graphs at the Space Environment Center [noaa.gov] and you can see that different things hit at different times. Right now were getting bombarded by the EM and high energy protons, while the matter from the coronal mass ejection will not get here for a few days. The radio blackouts and sensor dazzling are from the EM (X-rays mostly) and we're getting that NOW. But the matter from the coronal mass ejection is hurtling through space towards earth at some (relatively unknown) speed that depends on the speed at which it was ejected. THAT's the stuff that generates drag on satellites, causes the aurora, etc.

      Also it's nearly impossible to calculate when you'll see the aurora, because that depends a lot on local conditions and a lot of other stuff that is completely unknown to science. Best bet is to keep an eye on the data from the POES satellite [noaa.gov], which has some great plots showing likely auroral activity.

  • Glad we have a magnetosphere (Score:5, Insightful)

    by bryan1945 ( 301828 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @01:53AM (#2345450) Journal
    (sp?) If not, we would be Tater Tots in about 10 hours or so. Really, though, without an electromagnetic field, our planet would pretty much be blasted by the "solar wind" to the point that Mars or Venus would look like a vacation area compared to that version of hell. Another point not to forget is the ozone shield which filters out most UV radiation, where no shield was good at first (to cause mutations into higher lifeforms, like plants, but is now bad) but now is essential to not irradiate humans into extinction. Of course CO2 is bad/good because it will raise/lower global temperatures soon/never so our lives will be altered now/never. This last part is motly right.
    • Just wait for that ozone-killers to travel up to the higher atmosphere, which takes about 8 to 10 years (which leaves us.. err... -11 [greenpeace.org.au] years) and we'll all become mutated super-lifeforms (maybe the stupid ones will get smarter) :-)

    • Re:Glad we have a magnetosphere (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Yazeran ( 313637 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:25AM (#2345509)
      Actually Venus do not have any magentic field shielding it from the suns particle bombardment. This gives rise to some interesting interactions in the upper atmosphere of Venus.


      The reason for the absence of a magnetic field in Venus is first that it rotates soo slowly (actually it rotates 'backwards' as the orbital angular speed is greater than the rotational angular speed. The second reason for absence of magnetic fields is that the surface temperature is above the Curie tempeature for most magnetic minerals, thus any remanent magnetic field that might have been preserved from Venus earlier life is erased.


      The remanent magnetisation in some ferrous minerals is also the reason for the Moons small magnetic field, evidenting, that the moon had a planetary magnetic field like earth in it's earlier life when the lavalakes (the mares) were emplaced.


      Yours Yazeran


      Plan: To go to Mars one day with a hammer.

    • There was a good article in New Scientist 25th August. Can't send a link because you have to be a subscriber to get into the archive.

      The gist of it was that at the University of Maryland, they plan to simulate how the earth's magnetic field is generated by getting a sphere 3 metres across full of molten sodium and spinning it. They then hit is with a "starter field" which should set up eddy currents and lead to a self-sustaining dynao effect.

      It sounds interesting, but I'm not sure I want to be anywhere near that much molten sodium.
    • Actually doesn't the polarity of the N-S magnetic axis flip every 10,000 years or so? I was reading some article in Nature about how scientists used that fact to carbon date fossils in Antarctica.

      Anyway...when that happens, there is no electromagnetic field and nothing to protect the earth from solar radiation so there are lots of birth defects and things getting cancer. But scientists also think that's the reason there is such diversity in life on Earth because during these periods, tons of mutants are created.

  • Great.. (Score:1, Funny)

    by PopeAlien ( 164869 )
    ..anomalies in radio communications and power service are likely consequences.

    The ultimate slashdot effect!

    I knew I should have invested in that UPS.. sigh.

  • this image pretty much tells all:

    http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/SIS_7d.html [noaa.gov]

    Fire in the hold!

  • More information at spaceweather.com (Score:5, Informative)

    by B.D.Mills ( 18626 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @01:59AM (#2345466)
    http://www.spaceweather.com [spaceweather.com] has more information about this flare.

    It is a class S3 flare, which is strong enough to expose people travelling in commercial jets at high altitude to radiation equivalent to 1 chest x-ray. On average, the Sun only has about a dozen storms this strong or stronger every solar cycle (11 years). In other words, it's a fairly big one. (reference: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiation Storms [noaa.gov]
    • I don't want to seem overly picky here, but it's actually an X2.6 class [spaceweather.com] flare - the resulting radiation storm is an S3 class [noaa.gov] event.
    • Most of those storms seem to occur before the sun inverts it's magnetic field (every 11 years) if I remember correctly. I would think that we might be having more problems like this in the very near future - but I can't recall off hand where we are in the cycle right now. Actually right before the 11 year cycle ends is a good time to watch the sun (through an appropriate lens of course), being that there are more sunspots and flares and other interesting phenomena to see.

  • Oh no! Not again! (Score:4, Funny)

    by John_Booty ( 149925 ) <johnbooty@noSpAm.bootyproject.org> on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:00AM (#2345467) Homepage
    This morning at about 10:00 UT, a major explosion occured on the Sun
    God damned terrorists!

  • Doh! (Score:2, Funny)

    by maw ( 25860 )
    Low latitude aurorae and anomalies in radio communications and power service are likely consequences.

    Doh! So much for my glorious uptime! :(

    • Doh! So much for my glorious uptime! :(


      Then now is the time to upgrade to the latest Linux kernel. I'd say the timing was pretty perfect. :)

  • Practically Speaking (Score:5, Informative)

    by maggard ( 5579 ) <michael@michaelmaggard.com> on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:10AM (#2345487) Homepage Journal
    This will have repercussions on long-distance communications & electrical transmission.

    Satellites will likely be affected, indeed some may either have their onboard electronics so disrupted they cease to function temporarily or permanently, in other cases the cameras they use for determining proper altitude may become so filled with transient glitches that they loose lock & station-keeping is compromised.

    The Earth's ionosphere will expand and the Van Allen Radiation Belts will become heavily charged resulting in numerous radio transmission oddities ranging from increased static interference to long skips. Low Earth Orbit objects will experience increased drag and possibly require altitude increases. Inhabitants of the ISS should be protected by the magnetosphere though increased radiation counts will be experienced.

    Long-distance electrical transmission lines will build up significant charge. The lines in Northern Quebec are especially vulnerable from to their high latitude and lack of grounding due to the ancient granitic nature of the Canadian Shield. However measures put in place since the "Great Northeast Blackout of 1965" should be sufficient to keep any failures local and not produce a domino effect.

    To Geeks the result will be poor phone and dataline connections, possibly isolated electrical outages. TV signals will be poor as will most other forms of radio & microwave transmissions. Doubtless a few bits will flip from one state to another in the course of this but this will only be noticeable in very large samples.

    The good news is we've just passed the first Solar Maximum of the Information Age without great issue and this bodes well for the future. Though storms like this current one are possible (with diminishing likelihood) for the next year or so it appears fears of widespread disruption due to Solar-Max of were unfounded and along with the GPS rollover, y2k, unix t_time going to 10 digits, various odd dates etc. we've managed to come through all remarkably unscathed.

    • This will have repercussions on long-distance communications & electrical transmission.

      No problem. People will just blame it on the IIS worm du jour, predict Internet Death at 11 (tm), and later sheepishly admit that this time it was actually solar flares that ate the bandwidth...

    • After reading that post, certainly I am not the only person wondering; "How will all this interference manifest to future or current military operations?"

      Could this have happened at a worse time for us really? If indeed the press is not just pandering a disinformation agenda, we are still in the roll out and deploy phase.

      But what of the assets (covert ops, special forces) that may or may not be already inserted in hostile territory? Are Sat/com uplinks going to be possible? Are these guys stranded? (send in the British messenger pigeon experts?)

      Is GPS effected to the degree that it will effect naval and ground movements? Does the navy have a redundant system to coordinate entire modern fleet movements? It seems like this effect disrupts all the obvious ones. (microwave, radio, satellite burst crypto transmissions etc..)

      I'm a bit worried about our guys (all of them, allies and coalition members included), it's dangerous enough just have large scale maneuvers during peacetime when the solar weather is fine without having some fatalities due to mishap and so on.

      Keeping my fingers crossed, how horrible and demoralizing if the first news that comes from this action is that we lost good people to technical failures.
      • Well, let's just hope WWIII doesn't start because someone in Washington mistook a power outage for a terrorist attack.


        -m

      • Please reread my posting.

        Nowhere does it imply widespread havoc or complete disruption of services. If civilian GPS, telecommunications, etc. continue to operate (and there's absolutely no reason to expect they wont - we been through several flares of this sort in the past few years) then you can expect military ones will too.

        Some satellites will experience problems but there are backups and alternates. Error rates will go up on digital transmissions and static may be annoying on analog ones but those aren't showstoppers. Some broadcasts will propagate oddly but that happens occasionally in the best of times.

        This is a medium-large flare; it is not a catastrophic situation nor is it a unique event. I expect the world's militaries will be slightly inconvenienced at most.

    • Re:Practically Speaking (Score:1, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward
      calm down...this is a medium size solar flare in many terms and will not cause all the rampant problems that you are talking about. All the problems will occur to some extent, but not likely the sort of catastrophic events you are suggesting.

      Most GEO spacecraft are going to have enough total dose lifetime that it will not affect them in terms of total dose and most mission profiles have a built in allotment for proton SEE from these types of solar flares...heck most of the components on GEO sats are radiation tolerant enough that protons do not cause upsets.

      Most LEO spacecraft are relatively well shielded by the geomagnetic shielding of the planet and will not experience all that much of the energetic protons from the flares.

      For ISS, the protons will be all shielded away, but there is likely some increased level of neutron production...apparently the walls of ISS were designed poorly to be quite good producers of neutrons during these types of events.

      This really (so far) is not that big of a flare...take a look at July 14th, 2000 through July 19th, 2000 and if the on-orbit satellites fared alright through that one, this one is much less likely to cause problems.
    • the GPS rollover, y2k, unix t_time going to 10 digits, various odd dates etc. we've managed to come through all remarkably unscathed.

      ...and just as we step out of the danger zone prancing gracefully, smiling big for our accomplishments, the earth is unexpectedly swallowed by the planet eating monster, Zelos.
    • Ok, so now all we have to fear is a strange planet passing within our solar system, causing all mechanical and electrical devices to develop free will...

  • DVD (Score:1)

    by tconnors ( 91126 )
    We had a talk on solar flares in the physics department in July, that had been planned for quite some time beforehand I think --- and quite fortunately, the Bastille day flare shot up a week beforehand. So they showed all the cool movies on the big screen, and gave free DVD's to everyone in the audience. The movies on the big screen were absolutely marvelous.

    The flare was so bright, diffraction patterns were all through the image. They were actually able to use the diffraction pattern to get super-resolution out of the camera, IIRC.

    Very funky.

    TimC.

  • Clearly a terrorist plot... (Score:3, Funny)

    by Lethyos ( 408045 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:15AM (#2345494) Journal
    Ladies and gentlemen of the House, we have yet again faced a grave terrorist threat. United States intelligence was unable to detect and then stop this obvious terrorist attack to collide material from our sun. Clearly the terrorists weren't finished with the WTC, they must now slam something into planet earth's atmosphere, and yes, even earth itself. The success of this attack is a direct result of our nation's intelligence agencies inability to crack strong crypto used by terrorists. It is obvious to demand that all cryphers hence forth have back doors for us to use to help prevent such senseless acts of wanton violence in the future.
    • Once again, people have entirely the wrong ideas about these terrorists. It is obvious that the terrorists only rely on low-tech devices, and have thus performed an attack specifically targetted at our high-tech devices. It is time the US stops relying on frigile technology for vital services and actually do the necessary legwork and have enough human involvement.
  • About a billion tons of material are speeding toward Earth at over a million miles per hour,

    What will happen if a good sized chunk of this material strikes an important building and knocks it down? Will the Shrub then wage war against the sun?

  • When was the Concert Announced? (Score:3, Funny)

    by saihung ( 19097 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:29AM (#2345513)
    I hadn't realized that Disaster Area was scheduled to play this month. And me without rubber bungs for my ears.

  • Solar Terrestrial Activity Report (Score:3, Interesting)

    by zardor ( 452852 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @02:32AM (#2345518)
    This site [dxlc.com] also gives a good report on solar activity. (Its from the Radio DX-Listeners' Club in Norway. They keep an eye on this type of thing because it effects their radio communications quite severely, especially since they are at quite a northern lattitude.)
  • Great. Sun has blasted a heap of debri all over planet Earth. My Small Office/Home Office (SOHO) is never going to be the same. With all this debri strewn across it, it's basically useless. SUN Microsystems should not be allowed to get away with this. Who do they think they're are? It's an atrocity. I am calling my lawyer now to discuss possible damages related to the Sun discharge.
  • Sorry. Just had to say it. :)
  • Does this mean its time for another disastermovie with something about to hit the earth and we have to fire/blow/drill it to dust before the counter reaches zero OR am I just excited for nothing?
    /Smuffe
  • Where is the kaboom? There was supposed to be an Earth shattering kaboom!
  • I suppose this is yet another day when we can't look directly at the sun ?
  • I'm not a expert so i'm asking.

    How do solar flares cause radio interferrance?

    Thanks in advanced for fullfilling my curiosity.

    --toq

    • Re:How does? (Score:5, Informative)

      by John Miles ( 108215 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @04:29AM (#2345697) Homepage Journal
      HF radio propagation, and to a lesser extent VHF, depends on the relative height and RF permeability of the D, E, and F1 / F2 layers of the ionosphere. Both of these properties can change dramatically when the earth is bombarded with charged particles and high-energy photons from solar flares.

      Normal ionospheric behavior is the reason why AM broadcast radio reception varies so much between daytime and nighttime hours. The lower (D) layer of the ionosphere is much thinner and higher at night when it's not being hammered by as much solar radiation. The AM broadcast band is near the very bottom of the high-frequency radio spectrum, and long-distance propagation of lower radio frequencies depends primarily on refraction by the D layer. So whenever the D layer rises, the "skip zone" around a given transmitter grows considerably. It's common to see nearby AM stations fade out at night, while even low-power transmissions become audible from thousands of miles away.

      Solar flares have the same basic effect as the day/night cycle, but to a much larger degree. They usually just hose the entire HF spectrum, but sometimes the effect is very different. Under the right conditions, "ducts" and other layering effects can occur in the ionosphere, capable of propagating signals extreme distances with much less than normal loss. When you pick up a 5-watt ham radio station in Australia on your handheld shortwave radio in Texas, it's a safe bet that some unusual solar and/or geomagnetic activity is taking place.

      Disclaimer: I'm a ham operator myself, but it's been a long time since I operated on any frequency below 10 GHz, so some or all of the details above may be shaky. :) I'm not sure about the exact mechanism of ionospheric excitation during a solar flare, for instance: it might be due primarily to heavy charged particles from the solar wind, or it might be due to high-energy photons knocking loose a few extra electrons here and there. Any physics types around who can clarify?

  • Quick lets whip up a good Nostradamus quote (Score:4, Funny)

    by deadmantalking ( 187403 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @03:23AM (#2345613)
    And send it out as a chain mail...
    hows:
    when the blue turban man
    wields the power of his sword
    even the sun will burst out
    and light his road

    • An old man will arise, on his hands too much time
      in predicting the future, he'll make it all rhyme
      he'll write so much garbage, no-one bothers with reading
      making it easy for pranksters to invent things misleading
      like infinite monkeys with shakespearean play
      something is bound to match up on some day
      so much will he write, it'll be hit and miss
      and no-one will twig that he's taking the piss
  • This will be a good wallpaper... :)
  • This morning at about 10:00 UT, [...]

    This morning? Must have been yesterday (24th September) at 10:00 UTC, it's not even 10:00 UTC today yet.

  • When's the one gonna hit that's gonna kill us all? Or at least damage us? Does anyone else agree that in the aftermath of this WTC/Pentagon crap the whole _WORLD_ needs something that they have to pull together to work on? A common enemy (or whatever you choose to call it) that we as human beings have to pull together to fend against? I think that a sort of massive global threat would pull this world together and end all the political bullsh*t going on right now... for at least a little while
    • > Does anyone else agree that in the aftermath of this WTC/Pentagon crap the whole _WORLD_ needs something that they have to pull together to work on? A common enemy (or whatever you choose to call it) that we as human beings have to pull together to fend against?

      Yes! And that common enemy is: the United Nations.

  • Peanuts (Score:5, Informative)

    by Random Walk ( 252043 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @04:52AM (#2345723)
    Although this is a fairly big event for a calm, middle-age star like Sun, it is peanuts compared to the events observed for younger and more active stars of similar mass (the brightest flare [u-strasbg.fr] ever observed on a young solar-like star released 10000 times more energy than any flare on Sun). Which implies that Earth has experienced much more impressive flare events when the Sun was young.

    Also the qouted gigaton of mass loss is not really that much. The Sun has 2x10^30 kg, and loses 5x10^9 kg per second (one from solar wind, four more from conversion of mass into the radiated energy). So one gigaton is just 200 seconds of normal mass loss.

    • Exactly...and I doubt that it's ALL headed STRAIGHT FOR US!!! Maybe in Hollywood, where our tiny little rock is automaticly the target for everything from comets to land-grubbing aliens, but space is a really big place, and we're a pretty small target.

      • at least in Hollywood we could hear the thing comming.
      • I think you can allow Hollywood _some_ poetic license -- after all a story about a comet passing 3,000 million miles from Earth wouldn't be particularly exciting. Nor would a movie about scientists discovering a huge UFO popping into the solar system, orbiting Mars a couple of times then buggering off, nuking the surface of Uranus on the way home.
      • Let's assume the earth stops moving (hee hee), and we are at the average distance of ca. 150 million km from the sun. If a piece of "solar detritus" leaves the surface at an angle of 0.01 degrees relative to the earth, then (again, assuming we are not moving) we narrowly avoid death...by ~26000 km. Never mind the fact that the sun is called a "gas" giant because it is 99.9% gaseous, so sun-borne meteors tend not to occur.
  • Please tell me I wasn't the only one that saw SOHO Spacecraft thought Small Office/Home Office. Though a spaceship office whould be cool.

    Andrew

  • Time to consult the BOFH for advice (Score:5, Funny)

    by camusflage ( 65105 ) on Tuesday September 25, 2001 @06:26AM (#2345840)
    In times of solar flares, the BOFH recommends [engr.mun.ca]: "MAGNETS. Wrap your disks up in a pillow case with lots of magnets - Solar Flares hate that"
  • I'd think this is really going to play havoc with operations in Afganistan. Considering that the US depends on its satelliates and wireless links for intelligence and communications to coordinate everything from troop movements to weapons targeting, whereas the Afgans just need to sit tight in fragmented zones and shoot anything that moves. Usually satellites need to be shut down to protect it from solar events, I'm not sure if that's true for military satellites, but this sure is really lousy timing.
  • I use this site [noaa.gov] to guage the probability of northern lights. If it's red and you're north of NYC, you've got a good chance to see some.
    ---
    Simpsons Quote:
    Skinner: [faking a yawn] Well, that was wonderful. Good time was had
    by all. I'm pooped.
    Chalmers: Yes, I guess I should be --
    [notes entire kitchen is on fire]
    Good Lord, what is happening in there?
    Skinner: Aurora Borealis?
    Chalmers: Aurora Borealis? At this time of year? A this time of day?
    In this part of the country? Localized entirely within your
    kitchen?
    Skinner: Yes.
    Chalmers: May I see it?
    Skinner: Oh, erm... No.
    -- Skinner and Superintendent,
    "Twenty-Two Short Films About Springfield"
    ---
  • I just know this is going to bugger up my reception for the broadcast of the ST:Enterprise premiere. :/
  • I think we should bomb the Sun in retaliation.

    Nuke it 'til it glows.
    • Too Late, it's already nuked and glowing!

      change of subject:

      I remember back in 1981, at Washington University [wustl.edu], the anti-nuke groups were protesting that "any amount of radiation is dangerous". Hence, some friends and I formed a group called SOTS (Stamp Out The Sun). "Stamp Out The Sun... because any amount of radiation is dangerous". Looks like we knew what we were talking about!!!!
    • No way! The Sun is hiding out in Siberia as we speak. Do you think it would be so stupid as to stay where we expect it to be? It obviously acted through "cells" located in other countries. In fact, the sun could have thousands of gas giants all over the world, ready to strike at any time.
  • maj.com [maj.com] has a pair of Solar Status images [maj.com] you can include on your web pages for real time flare info.
  • I don't see any mention of the most important side effects - this thing messes up pagers and cellphones.

    To be on the safe side, I wrapped my cellphone and pagers up in tinfoil and left them in the trunk of my car, the most radiation resistant location I could think of.

  • It's interesting to note that these events (the July 13 2000 mega-flare and this one) happened during a solar maximum, i.e., the peak of a 11-year solar cycle.

    There is a nice explanation with graphics here: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/tour.cgi?link= /sun/activity/solar_cycle.html&sw=false&sn=872223& d=/sun/activity [ucar.edu]

    Note that in spite of documented variations (e.g. the "Maunder Minimum" from 1650 to 1700, where cold climate coincided with very low solar spot counts), solar emissions are assumed to be constant in numerical climate simulation models. Which explains why these simulations are not exactly accurate.

    -- SysKoll

  • The best way to monitor this flare is to go to http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html [noaa.gov], which is the plot of proton flux measured by satellite GOES-8, averaged on a 5-minute period.

    The 3 curves are the "event counts" for particles with an energy of at least 10, 50 and 100 MeV respectively. The curve has been leaping 4 orders of magnitude (10,000-fold) in the last 24-hours. Quite a nice flare.

    If you have the dubious privilege of working at a large helpdesk, it would be interesting to see if the number of computer crashes actually increases. Modern, ultra-dense DRAM chips are requiring only minute energies to flip a bit, and this flare should provide more than enough SEUs (single-event upsets), even at sea level, to trigger random bitflips all over the world.

    Anyone cares to provide empirical stats?

    Sysadms who are in the process of a corporate deployment of Windows 2000 need not answer: We know you'll see plenty of random crashes :-).

    -- SysKoll
  • You missed yesterday's, which was a brilliant X2.6. Today's was only an M8 (equiv to X0.8). If today's is a chest x-ray, yesterday's was three. The largest recorded since we've started measuring these things was an X20 in 1989. Quebec's power system overloaded that year.

    Spaceweather.com [spaceweather.com] reported yesterday:
    This morning at 1038 UT a powerful X2.6 solar flare erupted near the large sunspot 9632. A radiation storm (currently S2-class) is in progess and intensifying.The explosion also hurled a lopsided halo coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. The Earth-directed CME, pictured right in a SOHO coronagraph animation, will sweep past our planet late Tuesday or Wednesday and probably trigger geomagnetic storms.

    Interested in what the solar flares have affected in the past (from Roman legions to gas line explosions to Galaxy IV)?

    A little NASA article [nasa.gov].

    We're at the height of the 11 year solar flare cycle. I wonder what will happen tomorrow..

    • The largest recorded since we've started measuring these things was an X20 in 1989. Quebec's power system overloaded that year.

      According to this table [spaceweather.com], the 1989 flare is tied for #1 with one from April of this year (at least, in terms of X-ray intensity). However I don't remember hearing about any significant power or communication disruptions from the April flare.
      • You're right; neither did the X20 directly trigger Quebec's overload. The events occurred on separate months. However, a correlation may exist between high rad output seasons and the probability of inductive star dust spewing onto our little blue marble of a planet. Thanks for the heads-up on April's X20. I hadn't read that.

        -Fellow astronaut on Spaceship Earth
  • It's the end of the world as we know it...
    it's the end of the world as we know it...
    and I feel fine...

    Don't fret the little stuff, just smile and nod,
    it will all go away

  • Who's scale did they use to measure the weight?
    Ophrah's??

    Maybe Bill Clinton's bull-shit-o-meter...

  • Looks like around 2000UT, the CME hit our earth, pushing the veolicity up to around 800, and now it's about 750 [umd.edu].. if it's clear out where you live, probably, above 55 degrees magnetic latitude [noaa.gov] will have a good chance of seeing some northern lights.. keep your eye on POES Auroral Activity [noaa.gov] or space.com's Aurora Cam [space.com]. Plus, watch spaceweather.com [spaceweather.com] for updates in the next day about the storm
  • Oh, great.

    Here we've had cloudless nights for the last 5 months, and now that we've got what promises to be the best aurora all year they forecast... RAIN.

    Get outta my storm cloud. Grumble.
  • The solar X-ray output went up by over 1,000 times.

    Superman: AAAAGH! AAAAGH! THE LIGHT--IT BURNS!

    Lois: Well, I guess you won't be hanging around the women's locker room at the Y "on the lookout for crime" for a while, huh, Mr. Man of Tomorrow?
  • damn terrorists never quit!
  • dr zowie, will that much solar radiation be dangerous to us humans? I mean, I'm naked a lot.

    also, i have a tendency to get naked while on an airplane. is that even more dangerous since an airplane flies higher than the limit of the iambosphere? do i need to wear a lead loincloth while streaking planes?

    inquiring minds want to know.

    thanks!
    • Apparently when you are on a plane and one of these flares hit, if you are watching a film and you look closely at the screen you can see "motion", kind of like trails. This is presumably from the more energetic material passing into the plane and through/across the screen (after all, it is radiation).

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