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Space Science

HOW-TO: Asteroid -> Strategic Weapon 251

Beatlebum writes "A TEAM of British space scientists has devised a plan to nudge an asteroid out of its solar orbit and send it hurtling into the centre of a British Town. The story posted in the Electronic Telegraph describes how a few small atomic blasts could change a comet's trajectory enough to make it crash to any point on earth. The impact of even a small asteroid would make an ICBM look like a firecracker."
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Re:smart

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  • by Anonymous Coward
    why does this sound a lot like the moon april fools joke, although this one sounds a whole lot more convincing.
  • by Anonymous Coward
    Why do you assume the velocity of the Asteroid to be the earth's escape velocity? This is the velocity required to leave the earth - the relative velocity of the Asteroid and the Earth are what is important, and possibly much higher than this. The higher the velocity, the lower the mass required on the asteroid. But then, IANAAP :)
  • by Anonymous Coward
    this is a way for the researchers to get a military size budget by pretending asteroids are weapons. the article says it takes 15 nukes to move an asteroid with the explosive power of 15 nukes. there is no point. asteroids are extremely rare.
  • Has no one read The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress [barnesandnoble.com]???

    If there is a positive effect to discovering this 'new' weapon... at least the resulting blast doesn't irradiate the counrtyside, just lots of dust, heat, and debris.
    ---
    Don Rude - AKA - RudeDude

  • Crazy because who the hell would spend the money it would cost to pull this off just to eradicate one city? A well placed biological warhead would have the same effect of wiping out the population while leaving the structures intact for the invading force. With prevailing winds and such and enough of the agent you could wipe out a continent in a matter of days. So much for "mastermind" terrorists. I mean, have a little finesse guys. Filling a god damned truck with fertilizer and blowing up a building is chickenshit. If you really want to become a Bond villain you need to wipe out at least 200 million people at once. ;-)
  • This is actually very easy to postulate, but the actual implementation of this would wind up looking like a huge game of Pong. If two countries were trying to get this to hit each other, they would blast it back and forth, constantly changing the trajectory of the asteroid similar to the known universe's largest ping-pong ball with a catch, the asteroid could eventually explode and we'd all be in trouble.

    Look on the bright side. India and Pakastan wouldn't be using it anytime soon on each other, unless they both want to go careening into the Indian Ocean.


    Secret windows code
  • by root ( 1428 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @05:23AM (#296853) Homepage
    It's the new arms race! WWIII will be a billards game played out in space!
  • from even earlier, remember Star Blazers? Remember the Gammalons?
    Remember Planet Bombs?
  • well, seeing as how England is an ISLAND, it's more likely that they'll hit some water nearby.

    Big ol splash. Could possibly give Bath a Bath.
  • well, if they did their presentation on power-point, maybe we need to be afraid. . .
  • slamming a comet into mars with enough water to be useful would also likely bring enough atmospheric dust to be a nuisance for a period of time longer than it would take for the water to sublime, and molecules to be blown out of the upper atmosphere by the solar wind.
  • Finding the center of mass of an asteroid is easy.
    Asteroid rotate around their center of mass. Even if your asteroid wasn't rotating asteroids have very densities, so you anyone who took first year calculus can find the center of mass of an asteroid of known shape.
  • by jjohn ( 2991 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:34AM (#296859) Homepage Journal
    I assume these scientists were inspired by watching Babylon 5 [midwinter.com]. Mass drivers can be fun!
  • The proposed mission puts 20 or so small nukes into independent orbits around the asteroid. I imagine the controlling processors would learn its exact mass profile pretty quickly. They also use a whole series of nudges to get it on target. The whole process takes a couple of years, so there no hurry.

    The only real problem would be if the asteroid turned out not to be solid enough to deflect in one piece.
  • by stevelinton ( 4044 ) <sal@dcs.st-and.ac.uk> on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:58AM (#296861) Homepage
    Read the article. The scenario envisaged is an unmanned launch disguised as a Mars or similar mission. This is "lost" and makes a rendezvous with the asteroid where it unloads 20 or so small nukes into orbits around the asteroid (ideally an otherwise unidentified one about 100m across). The nukes are used to alter the orbit of the asteroid, exploding when the sun is between Earth and the asteroid, leaving just one final course correction to be done in the final month of so before impact, shifting it from a near-miss to a collision.

    In their simulations an average of 15 blasts was enough to hit a medium sized city.

    Once the final blast is done, it could probably be nudged into a nearby ocean or something up to the last few days, but a hitherto unsuspecting opponent would probably not be able to launch a nuke beyond Earth orbit (an ICBM will not do) fast enough to do this themselves.

    Budget, less than 100 billion $ for the first one, much less for subsequent ones.

  • by Splatta ( 7993 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @02:59AM (#296862) Journal
    Now, instead of "The Bomb" a rival country could be considered a threat if they have "The Asteroid".
  • The Mobile Suit Gundam anime series had the orbital breakaway state of Jion dropping asteroids on earth cities, and that came out back in the late 70's/80's.

    Speaking of B5, MS Gundam also took a big O'Neil type colony, filled it with CO2, and turned it into a superlaser. Very cool, at least when it's safely ficticious.

    Jon
  • it's a bit of a streach to think a nuclear nudge on an astroid can be so precisely done as to hit a specific point on earth - I'm think of chaos theory and sensitivity to initial conditions - you get one hundreth of a newton-meter off in the wrong direction and instead of hitting Chicago you hit Paris - try apologizing for that one.
  • but oh the collateral damage - Say London wants to take out ******, The Brits should at least expect some climatic changes to their island.

    Think of MAD in terms of what makes people drive safely on the highways - it isn't traffic laws that prevent someone from bashing into you at 100 km/hr.
  • If we get a small enough meteor, we can just take out Hollywood and that would be the end of all three.

    Of course, with our luck, MS will bribe all the right people and send the meteor to San Jose. Good bye Sun, most of Cisco and Intel, Linus Torvalds, and a whole bunch of other threats to Microsoft's power.

    ObJectBridge [sourceforge.net] (GPL'd Java ODMG) needs volunteers.

  • It doesn't take a nuclear rocket scientist to know that this stuff is capable of destroying whole countries.

    And it doesn't take a geologist to know that the world is flat, or a biologist to know that maggots spontaneously generate from rotting meat.

    As for the former, the Castle Bravo test literally destroyed the island in question and left nothing but a huge crater in its place.

    That island was somewhat smaller than North America.

    -
  • ...let me get this straight.

    It would take 15 nuclear explosions to push a rock on to a collision course with Earth to create an explosion equivalent to 15 nuclear bombs.

    Is it me or is there one big mother of a middle man that can be cut out of the equation here?

    Yes, there is a middle man that can be cut out. However, said middle man would (if the guys employing it were lucky) be completely unexpected--if its orbit isn't precisely known or monitored. (Which is one reason it's being proposed by Spaceguard: the funding aspect.)

    I mean, with the shadow of MAD still looming large in the public imagination, who is going to expect a non-nuclear attack of that magnitude?


    -W-

    "Is it all journey, or is there landfall?"

  • by Wayfarer ( 10793 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:44AM (#296869) Homepage
    Wow.

    I'm quite impressed with this work, not because it draws out a plan for using asteroids as weapons, but because it can offer a somewhat more compelling reason for governments to fund research into 'killer asteroids'.

    Face it, if astronomers say that something's got a one-in-a-million chance of hitting us, or that it passes within 600,000 miles of Earth, it lacks a certain kick--it's just astronomy, and that isn't a top priority. However, if they successfully argue that the Other Guy(s) could use these things as weapons, the issue becomes one of national defense. National defense gets funded.

    Of course, one has to make a good scientific case first. I'm waiting for an actual paper before deciding how plausible it actually is--though no matter what, it's still an interesting idea.


    -W-

    "Is it all journey, or is there landfall?"

  • Since current theories regarding the mass die out of the dinosaurs seem to revolve around a collision of either a comet or asteroid with the Earth, one's got to wonder if these geniuses have ever heard of the term Mutually Assured Destruction.

    Geez...

    (Someone please tell me that this is an April Fool's joke that someone just found underneath a pile of magazines.)



    --

  • no asteroid explodes on impact.
    no asteroid has tons of explosive materials in them (Ok, maybe a purely sodium asteroid would be messy hitting an ocean)
    There is no explosion.
    There is just a massive exchange of intertial force and many times asteroids if not on a 90 degree angle to the target will bounce or graze the target. (several grazing scars are in south america)

    Yes, a direct impact of something the size of New-york would probably cause some decent damage. but a BUS sized one would not. Mir was larger than a BUS and has nuclear reactors on it. Granted it did not enter the atmosphere at 9000 times the speed of sound (and nither does most metorites)

    run an impact simulation.. the "disaster" is not as bad as people make it out to be.
  • Well... At least this will solve the Middle East Conflict once and for all. No more whose is the holy city question to fight about.
  • by arivanov ( 12034 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @05:12AM (#296873) Homepage
    Why asteroid. Kinetic harpoons which are a recent hit in some british sci fi will do nicely.

    All you need is a high polar orbit platform. Minor orbit correction, and a delivery vehicle detaches and starts to deccelerate. After it has deccelerated enough it launches several properly shaped tungsten charges proteced by ceramics or composite material so that they can be slammed into the ground at proper speed without burning in the atmosphere. They hit the ground preheated to melting temperature and flying at several kilometers per second.

    Precise when used versus stationary targets.

    Deadly.

    No fallout.

    Very low maintenance costs once the platform launched. The platform if it is in polar orbit can hit any place on the globe within 24 hours. 12 platforms can cover the entire globe within the requirements of a tactical strike.

    Yummy...
  • The slashdot story freely mixes the terms "comet" and "asteroid", even though the two things are totally different objects. Both would suck to get hit by, and they both live in space, but that's where the similarities stop. Please at least try to keep these things straight.
  • This was also done in Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, although just with rail-launched boxes of lunar rocks rather than asteroids. Still quite destructive, though.

  • >ABC-weapons are already pretty good at killing lots of people, and they are easy to get. Heck, even India & Pakistan got nukes. How about the Taleban? How about you? Get yours today!

    This song by Tom Lehrer (from THAT WAS THE YEAR THAT WAS) seems an appropriate respose to this comment ...

    "Who's Next"

    One of the big news items of the past year concerned the fact that China, which we call 'Red China', exploded a nuclear bomb, which we called a 'device'. Then Indonesia announced that it was gonna have one soon, and proliferation became the word of the day. Here's a song about that.

    First we got the bomb and that was good,
    'Cause we love peace and motherhood.
    Then Russia got the bomb, but that's o.k.,
    'Cause the balance of power's maintained that way!
    Who's next?

    France got the bomb, but don't you grieve,
    'Cause they're on our side, I believe.
    China got the bomb, but have no fears;
    They can't wipe us out for at least five years!
    Who's next?

    Then Indonesia claimed that they
    Were gonna get one any day.
    South Africa wants two, that's right:
    One for the black and one for the white!
    Who's next?

    Egypt's gonna get one, too,
    Just to use on you know who.
    So Israel's getting tense,
    Wants one in self defense.
    "The Lord's our shepherd," says the psalm,
    But just in case, we better get a bomb!
    Who's next?

    Luxembourg is next to go
    And, who knows, maybe Monaco.
    We'll try to stay serene and calm
    When Alabama gets the bomb!
    Who's next, who's next, who's next?
    Who's next?

  • by Jethro73 ( 14686 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:02AM (#296877)
    We have all seen Armageddon, I think. What would be the impact on the rest of us?

    or...

    "We will destroy your town with an Asteroid, unless you pay us...

    ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!"

    Jethro
  • because thats a fucking good idea.

    we *need* weapons more powerful than a thermonuclear warhead... not until we can explode an entire planet in one shot will we be ready...

    oh wait, no, we should find a way to induce supernovae, eyah, then we can destroy whol solar systems at a time! Humans shall rule the galaxy!

    goddamn i hate people.

    -k-
  • Look, guys, if you're gonna go to all the trouble of shoving asteroids around, just slip a small nickel-iron one, say a billion tons or so, into a lagrange orbit for me, would you?

    L2 would be nice, but even L5 would do.

    Oh, and if you run across any chondrites, bring 'em along, by all means. It would make things so much easier...

    Thanks -

    The doc
  • by Chris Pimlott ( 16212 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @07:32AM (#296880)
    Is it me or is there one big mother of a middle man that can be cut out of the equation here?

    Yeah, but think of the style points you would get...
  • So fifteen nukes go off on an asteroid, and shortly afterwards it hits Telford. I don't think this'll fool all of the people all of the time.
    Mr Holloway, who works on risk assessment at the UK Atomic Energy Authority, likened the approach to one of a bad golfer.
    So an asteroid strike would make vast areas of land inaccessable for the masses? How is that like golf?
  • by the_tsi ( 19767 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:47AM (#296882)
    the fact that asteroids aren't perfect spheres. In fact, they're pretty far from being ANY perfect shape. They're probably not of uniform density, either. Add to that the fact that it's probably rotating unevenly, and you have one hell of an unpredictable rock floating through the cosmos.

    Finding the center of mass in an arbitrary asteroid and then finding a way to nuke the precise point on it's surface isn't going to be something you can calculate easily with a computer program; you're gonna need to go to the asteroid you pick, study it for a while and THEN experiment a little with changing it's trajectory. All this before you're ready to aim it at Earth and *maybe* hit your target.

    I suspect the article linked to is meant to be read as tongue-in-cheek, just like the one a few weeks ago on using asteroids to change Earth's orbit when the sun starts expanding.

    -Chris
    ...More Powerful than Otto Preminger...
  • . . . or perhaps it's a subterfuge: the real target may be France
  • And very importantly, you can destroy a nuke before it explodes, and it doesn't go off, you destroy an asteroid, well it may help some.
  • "instead of hitting Chicago you hit Paris - try apologizing for that one."
    Mad Scientist: Sorry, France, but we've blown up Paris.
    French: Oooh, that makes us sooo mad. Hmph.
    Mad Scientist (blinks several times, waits)....
    French: Hey, did that grove of trees we planted to signify our version of the prime meridian [slashdot.org] help you with your targeting?
    Mad Scientist: Uhm, I think I hear Igor calling.
    French (puffs on cigarette, drinks glass of wine, goes on with life)
  • The only rational assumption can be that this is a trial run to ensure that they can land an asteroid *directly* on target next time, when they choose to wipe Slough off the face of this green and pleasant land.
  • Arachnoid intelligence spy ships have learned of the human's latest desctructive technologies via an internet source named "slashdot".

    They have also learned that an unnamed insect on the planet was involved in a mid-air collision with a terrestrian "fly-swatter" combat unit, located in the "oval office" in the earthling city of washington

    The arachnoids are demanding an apology, lest they unleash a torrent of asteroids on washington.

    Although a majority of humans think this would be a good idea, President Dubba refuses to apologize, stating that the insect was "a hostile un-friendly, whose perpetration was to bug me"

    The federation's minister of Retalliatory Arachnoid and Insect Death (RAID) has decalered War on Bugs.

    Citizens everywhere are signing up to help defend planet.

    Want to know more? [imdb.com]


    adrien

  • Loud and clear and as if we are all one voice, everybody tell them how completely, utterly, and in all other ways stupid this is.

    I can here it now...Stu-pid! Stu-pid! Stu-pid! ... You get the point.

    There ain't no way in bloody freakin' hell they can target this thing with enough accuracy to make it worth their while. One innocently slipped decimal place or one graduate student intern using the wrong unit of measure and the asteroid you intended for the Presidential Palace in Baghdad lands in the Knesset.

    Code commentary is like sex.
    If it's good, it's VERY good.

  • This does sound like a Bond villian scheme, specifically like Octopussy. I do think it bears pointing out the other advantage of this scheme. You use 15 small nukes to get the equivalent of 15 very large nukes. If you know this is coming you can covertly prepare to protect your government. Whilst, most US citizens would rather see their government severely disrupted, this may not be true for the rest of the world. (No, they'd all like to see the US government disrupted too.)
  • Seconded! Now if only there wasn't such a lead-time I'd suggest a few other places to wipe out.

    Milton Keynes. West Midlands (ALL of it). Basingstoke. Bracknell.

    Come on kids, join in! It's fun to destroy towns...

  • Sadly, this was the most believable part of the entire book.

    One to skip... Oh, and "Moonseed" too. "Voyage" isn't bad though (as the first in his "let's reuse existing space hardware" series which you have to admit isn't nearly as snappy a title as his previous "Xeelee Sequence" novels)

  • I think you're right. Also I think there's an error in the original story.

    In most articles on the subject, the adjective "small" is not found anywhere near the quantifier "1 megaton"....

    (megaton-class Nukes tend to be fusion hence expensive and big. "tactical" nukes which are smaller and lighter and pure fission or fission-boosted are in the 10-500 *Kilo*ton range).

  • I think that the rock would be as hazardous as a real nuke... after all, you're setting off 15 nukes within a few hundred yards of it... surely some of that radiation has to soak into the rock. I mean, i'm far from a nuclear scientist or astrophysicist, but it seems reasonable to suppose that this approach would be no less detrimental than using a real nuke.
  • you have to rachet it up a bit.

    So some scientist tried to scare the public into diverting more funds into their pet projects. The public said, "Ho-hum. More Chicken Littles proclaiming that the sky is falling." So the scientist try a publicity stunt.

    "I know what we can do, Dr. Bubba. Let's do some math that very few of the people understand that'll show how we can use nukes to alter the path of an asteroid so that it'll blow up an insignificant little town. That'll scare the bejeesus out of 'em fer sure."

    "But Dr. Dufus, we don't have the technology to target asteroids. Remember, if it were that easy, we could just deflect them when they got close enough to be noticed."

    "Yeah, you're right. But remember, people are DUMB. They'll never notice if we put enough equations and other mathy stuff into the presentation. Then we could do this neat graphical thing where a space shuttle has to blow up because the nukes don't do their job right."

    "You're right. Let's do it, Dufus."

    Nothing to see here but some scientist who aren't getting their pet projects funded trying to scare up some support.

  • By Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle.. at amazon.com [amazon.com]
  • (Pardon my speculation as to the content of the article; at the present time it is inaccessible to me). Using nuclear weapons to guide asteroids and comets is an interesting idea, but the choice of using it for warmaking is odd. From a practical sense, the object would be far from "stealthy;" an intense X-ray source emmanating from a chunk of sky would almost certainly be detected, given our current capability, and it would tell us exactly where to look. We'd certainly wonder about that object coming towards us, especially when it changes course en route to Earth.

    Any state with the technological savvy and nuclear arsenal to conduct such an activity would be able to dispose of its enemies in another fashion, and its enemies no doubt could dispose of the aggressor. (If not, then more conventional modes of attack could be used by the aggressor with greater precision, flexibility, and lower cost). Besides, the number of possible adversaries a target state would have that could conduct such a mission is very limited, so the target state would know full well who lofted a big snowball at them, and they would merely respond in kind prior to impact with whatever arsenal they had available. The only real use I can see for such a technology is to somehow coordinate it with a first-strike nuclear attack, with the big space rock knocking out hard targets such as underground command centers.

    An alternative, peaceful use for such a technology would be to bring resources such as H2O to places we'd like to colonize. Slam a comet into the moon or Mars to bring water there, for example. Unlike trying to precisely control the descent of a chunk of ice onto Earth, a dicey game at best, one could instead direct the comet toward a different celestial body and have a much larger margin of error.
  • Babylon 5? Puh-leeze.

    One of my favorite books as a child was Robert Heinlein's 'The Moon is a Harsh Mistress' which talks about a lunar revolution dropping simple, massive rocks on earth targets...and that book is from the 60's at least.

    I'm sure readers more well-read than myself can come up with much earlier examples.

  • by coyote-san ( 38515 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @07:23AM (#296898)
    I'm reminded of an article I read on nuclear launch systems a while back. When the guys in the silo turn the key, the missiles launch, right?

    Wrong. It sends launch codes to the missile, and those launch codes might say "go now," but they could also tell the missile to wait minutes, hours, days, years, even indefinitely. (The last would allow a single pod to launch them in the future, instead of the multiple pods required for the first launch command.)

    The rationale is to provide a "second strike" capacity - the missiles will be launched when the enemy is attempting to rebuild the military base, etc. Evem if your launch crew is all dead, those missiles will launch.

    An asteroid strike would be a very compelling second-strike weapon. Silos could be destroyed, blocked, disarmed, etc. But the asteroid-tweaking mission could be launched during the initial exchange and then it's out of reach until impact.
  • Someone in telford is gonna have one heck of a surprize in 2023....

    Dr Holloway:
    "What? The asteroid is still heading towards Telford? I though we cancelled that in 2015?? I better make a few phone calls...."

    -------------------------------------------
    I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells.
  • by xtal ( 49134 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:23AM (#296907)

    The amount of available nuclear bombs is still large enough to destroy the Earth ~10,000 times. A single H-Bomb can destroy whole countries and make them uninhabitable for years.

    H-Bombs are evil, but this is FUD. Nuclear weapons can make areas of land inhabitable, and will dramatically affect the land for years - but the odds of a nuclear conflict that actually reduced the earth to ashes are completely improbable. Cities are the only targets that nuclear weapons effectively destroy - that, and perhaps large dams (think three gorges and the hoover dam). There's some doubt there too. There's little military strategic value in blowing up land nobody lives on, after you've wiped out all the cities.

    Contrast this with a large asteroid. The resulting firestorm would burn everything on the planet that -could- burn. Humans just wouldn't be extincted, but probably everything more complicated than inscects and small rodents. There's no radiation of course (unless the asteroid was a block of uranium, which I find unlikely). Even then.

    Then there's biological and chemical weapons. A genetically engineered virus, with the right incubation time, could kill us all in a couple of weeks.

    Again, FUD. Biological and Chemical weapons are a particular pet peeve of mine, and my government (Canada) is no exception to the rule here - it absolutely disgusts me that people would invest time and (MY) tax dollars in developing stockpiles of nerve gas and biological weapons that serve NO defensive purpose - they're only offensive. Chemical and biological weapons are possibly some of the worst, more horrible ways to die that we've come up with, but even then, they're not going to kill us all. They'll just kill everyone in cities and urban areas, with developed nations the hardest hit.

    Contrast with Mr. Asteroid - a good impact will, in one fell swoop, probably take out a continent! A whole continent! Unimaginable energies!

    Ah well.. the only thing that will wake people up is a small asteroid taking out a major center (preferably American, because that's the only country with the resources to do anything). :)

  • > By now we're able to build bombs with 100 megatons and more (this number practically only depends on the amount of money you are willing to spend). 1 megaton = 1000 kilotons. It doesn't take a nuclear rocket scientist to know that this stuff is capable of destroying whole countries.

    Nor does it take a nuclear rocket scientist to realize that blast and radiation damage don't scale linearly with megatonnage.

    Yes, Tsar Bomba was 100MT. No, even the Russians didn't make it part of their arsenal, because it cost a bloody fortune to build, and didn't do much more damage than a 25MT bomb.

    With 1960s-era guidance systems, you needed large bombs to ensure that you took out the target, because you couldn't be sure your bomb would hit the target to within $BIGNUM radius.

    With 2000-era guidance systems, you can hit the target, and you therefore no longer need to dump anywhere near the same amount of explosive power onto the target to take it out.

    The future of warfare is precision munitions. Even for hardened targets, a penetrating warhead and a conventional load (or for soft targets, a big-ass FAE - fuel-air-explosive) can be far more effective than either a tac-nuke (multi-kiloton) or big-ass nuke (multi-megaton) device.

    The target's destroyed - the fact that there's no fallout issue with precision-guided conventional munitions is just one hell of a nice fringe benefit for your troops.

    Nukes kick ass. But for the most part, they're obsolete except as a deterrent. They have a place in the arsenal, but the generals - from any nation - are aware that there are almost always better (cheaper and more effective) ways of accomplishing the mission.

    If you want to worry about something, fear the rogue state that builds a basement nuke, or worse, chemical/biological weapons (e.g. the possibility that foot-and-mouth disease being a possible instance of bioterrorism or asymmetrical warfare). The nuclear arsenals of the superpowers are the least of your worries.

  • > Hasn't Coventry already been there and done that?

    The first man that made 'er
    Was an Engineer, of course
    But then a bloody asteroid
    Squished Godiva's horse?

  • The difference is that the rock leaves a lot less radiation I think. but I could be completely wrong...

    //rdj
  • Ah ! You haven't read the article right.

    It takes 15 1-megaton (read: SMALL) nukes to create an explosion equivalent to 15 H-bombs (read: BIIIIIIG).
  • No, silly. All you have to do is hit William Shatner on the head with a large rock so he loses his memory, falls in love with the Indian princess, and accidentally discovers the controls to the asteroid deflector. Sheesh. You people.
  • Another niven-pournelle ripoff (read footfall)

    neh
  • Ok, if we can target any point on Earth with an asteroid (wonderful application, that), could we not do the same thing to another asteroid on a collision course with our home planet? Would there be enough force to knock a "planet killer" out of the way?

    -----

  • The kinetic energy of asteroids that are useful as weapons is even more economically valuable as reaction mass for inner solar system transport. The "oil companies" of space will be wanting to burn up that nonrenewable resource in competition with military uses.

    From the "Disperse Life [geocities.com]" pages:

    (An "inforb" is an orbit occupied by informational entities. A "biorb" is an orbit occupied by biological entities.)

    The first biorb [geocities.com] is likely to be around Earth growing out of the . It will grow Before growing far toward being heliocentric, the first biorb will need to begin the defense of Earth against celestial attacks.

    Kinetic energy asteroidal weapons are the most likely technology to represent the greatest threat to Earth [swri.edu] as a result of the growing solar biorb. Once asteroid mining begins in earnest, as it will once life becomes heliocentric, asteroids can be redirected via carefully planned celestial mechanics. Within a matter of decades, a malicious interest could send a swarm of tiny asteroids toward Earth at speeds comparable to that of the Swift Tuttle comet [oit.net] -- a popular candidate for global disaster scenarios. Since kinetic energy goes up as the square of velocity, the important thing is to find small asteroids with the right trajectories. This would most likely be carried out on the basis of a fairly complete atlas of the trajectories of small asteroids, searching for some large number of them that could be manipulated to converge on Earth with maximum relative velocity over a fairly narrow window of time.

    The most economic defense will likely be the preemptive survey, cataloging and monitoring of all celestial objects (comets as well as asteroids) large enough to survive high speed passage through Earth's atmostphere with little loss due to ablation. This means the initial prospecting for asteroidal resources will be carried out by Earth shielding entities. It is difficult to second guess the technologies that would be available for this task so far in the future, but candidate technologies are already upon us and surveys are already being done [tpgi.com.au].

    Perhaps the most positive aspect of this situation is that when an asteroid is identified as a threat, it is also identified as a particularly attractive source of "fuel" for space transportation. Any asteroid that has a high velocity relative to Earth, or can be easily made to have such a velocity, and which has an orbit that can be made to come near Earth, can be used as reaction mass to navigate the inner solar system. Each time this is done, the threat represented by such asteroids diminishes. It's as though someone had discovered a way to burn nuclear fuel in jets without pollution. The bombs would get burned up due to economic demand.

    Additional global threats to Earth are most likely decreased by removing technological civilization from its biosphere.

  • While I'm not one of those enviro-nuts who worry about the 1 in 1e12 chance of a satellite's plutonium powercell exploding, I am somewhat leery of the science fiction premise that we'll get tons of new raw materials from the asteroid belt or moon.

    The idea is simple: go to where the iron, nickle, cadmium, and other valuable minerals are, and ship them home. There's plenty of rocks up there.

    The risks are high: you're guiding rocks of important sizes towards several billion sitting ducks. "Catching" the rock in Earth orbit is just a mite riskier than guiding a broken Mir into an uninhabited stretch of ocean.

  • So now I know why I was raised playing "Asteroids" and "Missle Command", I was unwittingly trying out to be the "Ender" of our generation.

  • Somebody set up us the asteroid!

    How are you gentlemen.

    All your small English town are belong to us.

    Move all 'crumpet'.

    For great justice.

    This parody brought to by the SBAITGFGS - Society to Beat AYB Into the Ground (For Great Justice)

  • by NTSwerver ( 92128 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:27AM (#296938) Journal
    ...let me get this straight.

    It would take 15 nuclear explosions to push a rock on to a collision course with Earth to create an explosion equivalent to 15 nuclear bombs.

    Is it me or is there one big mother of a middle man that can be cut out of the equation here?

    ----------------------------
  • Why hairtrigger? This would work best to hurt an enemy state without being concerned about retaliation - it would look like an accident (or act of God, if you prefer).
  • In order to prevent a meteor attack, raise chocobos until you have an ocean-going chocobo, and then summon Knights of the Round a few times!
  • Verse 13 [gospelcom.net]:
    And he
    [the false prophet] doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,
  • "What happen?"
    "Somebody set up us the asteroid!"

    Sorry, it's just not funny enough.
  • The Heavy Gear universe does this; 40 ton rods of Titanium, I believe. Point'em and drop'em.
  • Aside from the SciFi sound of all this, I can't help but feel how weird such a story seems.
    Lets take a look at a few inventions that were Science Fiction staples, then became reality.
    • space travel
    • microwave technology
    • radar
    • nuclear technology
    • wireless communications
    • various computer technologies
    • global networking constructs
    • genetic technologies
    • hell, most military techologies
  • Yes, but the CEP would still be smaller than the crater. :-)
  • 6. Redmond
  • by HerrGlock ( 141750 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:03AM (#296970) Homepage
    If you thought that the cold war with atomic weapons would leave the Earth cold and desolate, try sending an asteroid of any size to impact. According to the people they don't let out too often, a water hit is worse than a land hit as well.

    Just something to think about before people get too happy about this as a defensive/offensive device.

    DanH
    Cav Pilot's Reference Page [cavalrypilot.com]
  • The amount of available nuclear bombs is still large enough to destroy the Earth ~10,000 times. A single H-Bomb can destroy whole countries and make them uninhabitable for years. A single bomb that spreads radioactive material through the atmosphere could kill all of us. Then there's biological and chemical weapons. A genetically engineered virus, with the right incubation time, could kill us all in a couple of weeks.

    ABC-weapons are already pretty good at killing lots of people, and they are easy to get. Heck, even India & Pakistan got nukes. How about the Taleban? How about you? Get yours today!

    --

  • Nuclear weapons can make areas of land inhabitable, and will dramatically affect the land for years - but the odds of a nuclear conflict that actually reduced the earth to ashes are completely improbable.

    You are missing the point. I was not talking about what is probable -- a redirected asteroid hitting the Earth is not probable either. I was talking about what we can already do with current technology. And again, a single country could make 99% of the whole planet's population (of most animals as well) die from radiation by exploding a ~60 MT bomb with a coat of Cobalt in the atmosphere. The Cobalt would become radioactive Cobalt 60, and contaminate the whole planet.

    And don't forget nuclear winter.

    They'll just kill everyone in cities and urban areas, with developed nations the hardest hit.

    They'll kill everyone in every place where people and, depending on the disease, animals come and go within the incubation time. That doesn't leave out a lot.

    So in the future, using large objects from space, we may be able to, instead of killing 99% of the population, kill 100% of it, and the insects as well, in shorter time. So what? The big challenge is obviously not finding better ways to kill many people, but to prevent them from being used.

    --

  • A single large weapon could indeed make Monaco or Luxembourg uninhabitable for a time, but those are the smallest of countries

    I'm sorry, but you don't have a clue about the destructive power of modern nuclear weapons. The bomb that destroyed Hiroshima was a 15 kiloton bomb. It killed 100,000 people immediately and probably about the same amount through radiation. By now we're able to build bombs with 100 megatons and more (this number practically only depends on the amount of money you are willing to spend). 1 megaton = 1000 kilotons. It doesn't take a nuclear rocket scientist to know that this stuff is capable of destroying whole countries.

    Note that, of course, I don't use the word "destroy" in the sense of "blowing it up into many many tiny little pieces", but in the sense of "killing all complex life". As for the former, the Castle Bravo test literally destroyed the island in question and left nothing but a huge crater in its place..

    --

  • So they plan to wipe out Telford on on Oct 16 2023, but "The impact would be accurate to within a few hundred miles...". So it's also very well possible that they miss England alltogether? Sounds like a good, well thought out, plan to me **chuckles**.

  • So an asteroid strike would make vast areas of land inaccessable for the masses? How is that like golf?

    • Golfcourses are big pieces of land (=vast area)
    • You can't live on a golfcourse (=inaccessable)
    • It's quite dangerous to walk around on a golfcourse, with balls flying around and golfcarts everywhere (=inaccessable)
    • Golf is quite an expensive sport (at least in my country), so not really accessable for the masses.

    All in all, this is very much like golf - so it's a good comparison in my book! :)

  • Yeah, I can see the apology now: "Sorry we blasted Paris away, we thought we used metric values to calculate the trajectory..."
  • by tonyPick ( 161066 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:06AM (#296985) Homepage

    The impact on the Midlands new town would trigger an explosion the equivalent of 15 hydrogen bombs, wiping Telford - birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and which now boasts "one of Shropshire's larger shopping centres" - off the map. ... Manchester, Birmingham, Leicester and Nottingham would all be destroyed

    I'm sold on the concept so far. So do they want donations to help now or what?
  • By the time you see the asteroid it's certainly gonna be a sight to see- a sight that will amaze you for the rest of your life!

    Besides, chances are you won't have the spectroscope AND the satellite cell phone on you at the time; I always find I leave atleast one of them at home at times like that; and you'll be busy a second or two later. You'll certainly be needing speed dial ;-)

  • All you need to do is nudge a small space rock.
    This could be done with non-nuclear rockets...

    An ion engine with a couple thousand pounds of fuel comes to mind. Storable, Efficent, Hard to Detect...

    Remember they estimate size of the rock that caused the 1908 siberian explosion is 50 meters (1/2 a foot ball field).
    Link here [psi.edu]

    Doesn't take much to change the orbit of a rock that small.

    TastesLikeHerringFlavoredChicken
  • In the "One World/Black Helicopters" conspiracy mode....
    What would happen if you dropped a rock on Jeruselam and then got the TV hair-do evangelists to chat up the "wrath of God" angle? What would the various sects argue about then?


  • by Elbelow ( 176227 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:21AM (#296994) Homepage
    According to the people they don't let out too often, a water hit is worse than a land hit as well.

    There is a Scientific American article [sciam.com] about the relative damage wrought by land and sea asteroid impacts.
  • While I think Science for Science's Sake is a very worthwhile endeavour as it always adds to our understanding of the universe, this story makes me sick.

    I cant say anything more than "Why the fuck would anyone/country want/need/desire/imagine/devise/whatever a scenario to kill 10million people by dropping a fucking asteroid on them". The same logic that wants to put up ICBM missle defense grids are the same that want to spy on China are the same who want to extort apologies are the same that want to kill palestinians are the same that want to sign the FTAA are the same that want fund studies to divert asteroids into the planet - who the fuck are these people and who put them in charge?

  • Well, this armageddon would have a very deep impact - I suspect that the hammer would carve out a nice, deep lake to add northern England.

    Mind you - no radioactive fallout, and this could become a nice, wide, deep lake - several tourist resorts could pop up around it after all of the devastation etc is removed.

    Fortunately it's tough enough for industrialized nations to launch rockets let alone ones that could carry the nuclear weapons required to move the asteroid. I don't forsee this as being used as a weapon right now.

    But yes, people should be made aware of this danger. I'm going to paraphrase Larry Niven on this one (because I'm not sure of the exact quote):

    'The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space programme.' It will serve us right if we suffer the same fate."

    Sigh...

  • Are they going to have a guy in a space suit and a cowboy hat, doing that scene from Dr. Strangelove as the asteroid goes down?
  • Gentlemen, we must not allow an asteroid gap. Otherwise we could lose our way of life and the essence of our precious bodily fluids.
  • by Kriticism ( 225999 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @04:05AM (#297025)
    The evolution of human warfare:

    - Throw Rock
    - Hit other guy with stick
    - Hit other guy with sharp stick
    - Shoot stick at other guy with curved stick
    - Hit other guy with sharp copper stick
    - Hit other guy with sharp bronze stick
    - Hit other guy with sharp iron stick
    - Hit other guy with sharp steel stick
    - Shoot stick at other guy with REALLY BIG curved stick.
    - Shoot stick at other guy with stick with trigger.
    - Shoot metal rock at other guy with rock with trigger.
    - Drop exploding metal rocks on other guy
    - Drop unstable atomic metal rocks on other guy
    - Throw rock

    Wow! Isn't human progress impressive?
  • The team proposed sending a 10-ton satellite on a nine-year journey to within 6,000 miles of the asteroid. The satellite would carry
    one-megaton nuclear missiles.

    Satellite exploded just when it hits the Earth atmosphere, we all die a long painful death. Then a giant asteroid hit the Earth. Million years later, giant intelligent ants (the new dominant specie on Earth) wondering if an asteroid wipe out the apemen. I am pretty sure that is what happened to the dinosaurs...

    Are you thought the Russians are crazy [slashdot.org]!

    ====

  • NOT LA. I live in LA. Granted taking out 1. Hollywood, 2. Celebs, 3. The Church of Scientology tm, (C), etc. I'll move. Bastards.

    Arathres


    I love my iBook. I use it to run Linux!
  • by tonywestonuk ( 261622 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:11AM (#297045)
    Coventry is much more worthy of Annihilation!

    Telford is on my doorstep, anyhow - so there won't be much left of me :-(

    New Slashdot poll:
    Best place to plant an Asteroid:

    1...Los Angeles
    2...Seattle
    3...Melbourne
    4...Coventry
    5...CowboyNeal
  • by TGK ( 262438 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @07:02AM (#297048) Homepage Journal
    Lots of misconceptions on the topic of nukes here. Lets see if we can start debunking them.

    Firstly, depending on the size of the rock in question a fairly substantial blast could be generated. A 60 mile radius of total desctuction is quite substantial, probably well in excess the most sophisticated "city buster" weapons still deployed today.

    As to the concept of radiation, yes and no. Most of the "fall out" you hear about when nukes are involved is dirt and debree kicked up by the blast that small bits of fissile material have attached themselves to. This is why air burst explosions are typicaly cleaner than ground burst explosions. A space based blast would have very little in the way of fallout simply because of the very low escape velocity of such an asteroid. Most of the dust would just go casualy wizzing about space. The rock itself would have radioactivity not significantly in excess of background radioactivity

    It's a piddling point, but your average 1 megaton nuke is probably a plutonium implosion device with a tritium fusion booster core. The "small" atomic bombs droped on Japan in 1945 were very fission inefficient, thus accounting for their yeilds (both less than 20 kilotons).

    A FAQ on Nukes and other such toys is available HERE [fas.org]
    Normaly I'd direct you to the NUKEOTRON to play with burst effects, but that's down, so wander around WOMD [womd.com] (Weapons of Mass Destruction) for a more interactive tour


    This has been another useless post from....
  • In their simulation, the expected error was a few hundred miles. In other words, aim at England, hit France or Ireland. Mostly this is because you can't adjust the power of the steering nuke blasts -- it's like putting with hand-grenades. Get a better propulsion system and you should be able to get pinpoint accuracy -- but it might take a few practice shots to figure out how much atmospheric entry will deflect an asteroid of a given size and shape. NASA's first manned flights came down up to a hundred miles off target, and those capsules were far more steerable than a rock.
  • kill 100% of it, and the insects as well Not likely. The dinosaur killer asteroid or comet was much bigger than the ones they are talking about steering with nukes, and plenty of species survived that. I'm sure humans would turn out to be more adaptable than alligators and insectivores.
  • Why the middleman? It's a hell of a lot more fun to smite someone with an asteroid than it is to lob a few bombs at them. Nuclear warfare is just so passé.
  • by whanau ( 315267 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:05AM (#297067)
    Asteroids are next to useless as weapon.
    Firstly it will take months to devise "fire solution" which is useless in terms of a hairtrigger engagement. The element of surprise is completely lost when your craft take of to rendevous with the asteroid, and all it would take to shut down your plan is a quick nuclear strike by the opposing side. Thirdly the path of your asteroid has to be so precise if you want it to hit an exact target at an exact time, and you won't get that kind of accuracy with nuclear blasts. All in all it makes a pretty poor weapon
  • by murk1e ( 415071 ) on Thursday April 12, 2001 @03:32AM (#297081) Homepage
    The article is makes an interesting and novel case.

    let's work out the sums:

    Impact speed : 11km/s (minimum) - escape velocity.

    15 small nuclear bombs, let's say 20MT yield this gives 300MT.

    1MTonne TNT=4.5x10^15 Joules IIRC.

    Hence a yield of about 10^18 Joules.

    Taking KE=0.5*m*v^2

    This gives m = 2*KE/v^2

    m= 2*10^18/(11000)^2 = 10^10kg (approx)

    Using a density of about 10^4 kg/m^3, Volume is about 10^6m^3.

    This means that we're talking about an asteroid of diameter 100 metres here. That's getting a bit big to be an unknown asteroid (subject, of course, to any stupidness on my part, and the usual rounding errors). This is not an infeasible size for the application though - we track a very small proportion of these objects.

    However, a smaller asteroid (which are more likely not to be tracked) would still cause pretty major devastation.

    The problem for any would be despots would, of course, be making an undetected launch to deflect the asteroid, rather than deflecting the thing. Also there's the problem of deflecting the object in a controlled way (the method given sounds a little hard to fine tune).

    For a related weapon (this time rocks fired from the moon), read 'The Moon is a Harsh Mistress' by Heinlein. (Amazon.com [amazon.com]/Amazon.co.uk [amazon.co.uk])
    --
    Murky

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