Living Terrors 96
| Living Terrors | |
| author | John Schwartz, Michael T. Osterholm |
| pages | 232 |
| publisher | Delacorte Press |
| rating | 8.5 |
| reviewer | Jeff "hemos" Bates |
| ISBN | 038533480x |
| summary | A reporter and a researcher pair up to tell us why bio-terrorism ought to scare us more than a raft of Dustin Hoffman films. |
Unlike a nuclear assault, a biological attack can be even more insidious because of the time delay between deployment and effect. That delay means that even agents and diseases which may sound laughable could have a terrifying effect. Once a person has been infected with smallpox, for instance, he could interact with literally thousands of people before showing any symptoms, unknowingly furthering an epidemic. And with the eradication of it in the wild several decades ago, the vaccine hasn't been administered in years. Not suprisingly, there are very few doctors in the field who can actually diagnose a case of smallpox.
One of the book's interesting devices is the fictional story of someone who creates a smallpox 'bomb'and the effect it has. The story underlines how unready our government, our health care system, and we as citizens are for an attack of that nature. Explosive devices seem somehow OK and understood, while a biological attack, one that turns a person into a vector seems anathema to our understanding of war.
Living Terrors is far more then just fictional stories, however. Schwartz (reporter for the NY Times) and Osterholm (a bigwig in epidemology/public health) use a variety of data to highlight many of the holes and misunderstandings that both the public and the government share. One of the areas that I found most interesting is the shockingly slight degree of slack in our hospital system.
By slack, I don't mean how often the janitor steps outside to smoke a cigarette. It's the degree to which we have excess capacity to handle emergency events and situations outside of the norm. The last few decades of relentless financial pressure on the health care system has produced a system that can handle everyday events -- and little else. Even events like earthquakes in California, influenza outbreaks and other more "normal" disasters cannot be adequately handled by the hospital system. That's not to say that it is the hospital systems' fault: Funding for public health issues in general has dropped off in recent years, despite the continued rise of public health matters.
This situation, of course, becomes even more critical in the outbreak of a major event, like a bioterrorism attack, or a major disease outbreak. One of the necessary remedies to help control an event like this would be more public health funding, something which would have beneficial effects far beyond our ability to respond to bioterrorism.
One of the disturbing areas is the sheer availibilty of both the equipment to produce the viruses or bacteria necessary for an attack. As chemical manufacturers have stretched out to new markets, and as biotech has grown as a sector, the equipment to grow the vectors has become much more commonly available. And as we've all heard about former Soviet nuclear scientists showing up in rogue nations, the same is true for many of their former bio and chem scientists. The book cites several examples of scientists formerly associated with the Soviet bio and chemical weapons programs being seen in unsavory nations.
Living Terrors is well written, well researched, and does a great job of overviewing both our deplorable present situation and possible remedies. I heartedly recommend it to anyone interested in biology, or simply the world around us.
You can purchase this book at Fatbrain.
The CIAs view (Score:1)
Re:Weapons of Mass Destruction (Score:1)
Of course, the Iraqi gov't has shown itself to be quite content to use chemical weapons against the Kurds, but IIRC those chemical weapons were US-made anyway. So perhaps the biggest bio/chem warfare threat is actually the US military... they've no doubt spent the last 80 or so years researching and stockpiling, and they're happy to sell the technology if the price is right.
Re:Just an observation.. (Score:1)
You don't quite see what he meant... (Score:1)
Even worse, the few who DO protect themselves beforehand against this are likely to be specifically targetted during the rioting by people angry at them for being better-prepared. Petty revenge. Human nature. What can I say?
When you're in a big city infested with the new & improved super-ebola and have just seen all your loved ones bite the dust, you are going to want to *kick some ass*. And since the "Gee I get to play God" scientists responsible will be dead, there will be no one left to attack but those smarty-pants who aren't dying.
Me, I already intended to never live in a big city, because I don't like humans. This is just another reason, as if any more were needed.
-Kasreyn.
At least.... (Score:2)
Re:but we need that money... (Score:1)
In the introduction to the book, Mike says, "I do not believe it is a question of
The probablilities play out this way: The likelihood that an attack will occur today, in your town, are extremely low. The probability that it will happpen SOMEWHERE is much higher, with the risk to people around the country tied to such factors as whether or not the agent used is highly contagious.
That's why our recommendations aren't about buying space suits for every American, or creating enormous military/police bureaucracies and local squads. Instead, our recommendations go to beefing up the infrastructure of public health and medical care so that wherever it happens, the disaster can be mitigated. That would be money well spent, even if we never get hit with a bad bug. (We do call for ONE initiative that is more narrow, though: rebuilding our stockpile of smallpox vaccine so that we can roll it out quickly if it's needed.)
j
Re:We have been hit w/ bio weapons (Score:1)
There are reports that infected corpses were used in siege warefare as early as the mid-1300s. But since Europeans had no real understanding of the germ theory of disease until the mid-1800s, they might not have made the mental leap that a sticky blanket was also infectious.
Don't Poo-Poo this Shit.. (pun intended!) (Score:3)
This all dovetails nicely with the recent revelation that the Saddamster had some of his stateside minions scrambling for Sony PlayStation 2s.
Why? The PlayStation processor IS powerful and fast enough to use as the video analysis unit of a cruise missle.
Why should you give a shit about this?
Simple.
Using OFF the SHELF hardware and a little college level software development and aerodynamics experience, you could SINGLEHANDEDLY, within a two year time period produce a 250mph turbine powered cruise missle with a range of about 40 miles. Such a delivery platform could be catapult launched from a rented roofless tractor trailer moving through a city and would be capable of delivering a bio-toxin or agent to the airspace over a major sporting event or concert.
The Bio-Weapon could easily be smuggled into the country as a plastic ampule shoved inside a jar of mayonaise or some other foodstuff.
The only component that might prove only SLIGHTLY difficult to obtain would be the squibs needed to blow apart the plastic ampule over the target site. But, then again, with some college level chemistry, even these could be fabricated.
Such a development AND delivery effort could probably be effected for less than $80K and would be virtually impossible to prevent.
My advice to you? Stay the hell out of downtown areas and if you GOTTA see Brittany Spears, avoid arenas without roofs. Wait. I got that wrong. If you're going to see Brittany, you MUST only go to roofless venues.
Scared Shitless? You oughtta be.
P.S. Note to the FBI: I am a nerd, not a terrorist.
P.P.S. Note to Saddam: None of this is true in any way and, while I have your attention, you're a fucking jerk.
"A microprocessor... is a terrible thing to waste." --
What's Wrong with This Picture? (Score:3)
Yeah, bioterror weapons (or chem terror weapons, or just trucks full of explosives) are really easy to build.
Yeah, there are a lot of folks out there who profess to hate our guts.
So where are all the attacks? In the US, we've had the World Trade Center, Oklahoma City, and Atlanta Olympics bombings. None of them were particularly competent. None of them produced anywhere the disruption predicted.
Perhaps the usual Hollywood portrayal of terrorists as totally insane, drooling maniacs isn't right?
Perhaps branding anybody who doesn't like McDonalds, Jerry Falwell, or other vital American interests as a "potential terrorist supporter" isn't right?
It's pretty obvious to me that our whole "mental map" of "terrorism" is badly wrong. We can't do anything effective until we figure out what is really going on.
--
Re:Why single out Russia? (Score:1)
Re:Weapons of Mass Destruction (Score:2)
Actually, I'm afraid it's the other way around.
From the market side - go ahead and fry Nasdaq. The ECNs and other off-market trading vehicles will do just fine. The NYSE (effectively the consolidated quotes you get) is actually just the best bid/ask of many stocks on many regional exchanges. (e.g. the Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland and other $OBSCURE_CITY Stock Exchanges).
10 years ago, this was a serious risk. Today, it's a given that trading will continue (although there'll be some wonderful opportunities for arbitrageurs) in the event of an electronic attack against a major financial center, simply because of the widespread distribution of physical locations where trading can take place.
Finally, the dollar amounts involved in the stock market's are nothing compared to the bond and currency markets, and those are effectively traded in a 24/7 market as trading moves from continent to continent.
Bottom line - HERF NASDAQ and you've cost a lot of people a small amount of money, and made a few people a large amount of money, and life goes on. The panicking citizens, or even panicking traders, are ultimately neutral in what is essentially a zero-sum game due to fact that most of the bucks will be moving in the futures and derivative markets.
On the biowar side, unfortunately, panic works in the attacker's favor. What's the one thing you don't want when someone dumps a pile of Ebola/Influenza hybrid into a city.
Right - people moving around, spreading it.
What's the one thing Joe Sixpack will do when he feels fine but everyone else is dropping around him like flies?
Right - get on a plane or a car and haul ass outa dodge.
Worse - what's the one thing that both Mandy "Granola" Chomskyite and Fred "Tinfoil" Survivalist will do when the troops announce "Stay in your homes. The city is under quarantine."
Mandy will march with all her friends in the streets to protest the fact that the Corporate Masters are trying to slay all the $OPPRESSED_MINORITY_GROUP in the cities. And Fred will pick up a gun and "protest" the invocation of martial law by $EVIL_ONE_WORLD_GUMMINT by shooting between his pickup truck and the county line.
In the case of biowarfare, the likely course of citizen panic, and particularly in an industrialized democracy, greatly favors the attacker.
HERFing NASDAQ would be a walk in the park by comparison.
America invented bio-terrorism. (Score:2)
If you didn't know this, buy and read "Bury my heart at wounded knee."
Re:Strangely enough, guess the growing medium (Score:1)
Hate to spoil a good joke, but Agar comes from seaweed. From the Encyclopedia Britannica:
Re:America invented bio-terrorism. (Score:2)
As horrible an act as that was, it wasn't the first use of biological warfare. Hannibal ordered earthen pots to be filled with "serpents of every kind" and then hurled onto the decks of Pergamum ships, and in 1346 the Tartar army attacked Caffa by catapulting the corpses of plague victims over the city walls, starting an epidemic of plague.
--j
Re:We just can't win. (Score:2)
No warning, one second everything is normal the next second *BLAM*. No time to get to your shelter or into your suit.
Plus missles leave a nice return address in the radar tapes.
The cure of the ills of Democracy is more Democracy.
Re:Related Books (Score:1)
here's a variation based on a james bond movie (Score:2)
because it doesn't lead to world destruction but
could make some bad guys a lot of money. it is
like the james bond movie "on her
majesty's secret service" where the bad guy wants
to kill all the chickens, but in this case its
people.
step 1:
you create a custom virus that spreads easily,
has no obvious symptoms, and lurks in your body
for a pre-programmable amount of time before
suddenly springing into action and killing you.
it is only activated if your body contains
certain characteristic genes. for example, you
could create a version of this virus that only
targets people with fair skin, or those with
a chinese background.
step 2:
you release several versions of this virus, one
for each major targeted group that you want to
hold for ransom. we're talking nations here, like
india, china, australia, etc. for most of these
groups, set the gestation time for about 2 years,
but for one "demonstration" group, set the time for just 1 year.
step 3:
wait a year.
step 4:
when the millions of people in your demonstration
group start to die quickly, announce that you're
responsible and that you'll license the antidote
to each targeted group for $100,000,000+ a pop.
step 5:
hope you can spend the money before you're
killed by the SAS
this scenario is of course predicated on the
ability to create such custom viruses, but the
rapid advancement in genetics, especially within
the context of the human genome project lead me
to believe that this is quite possible.
i think that germ warfare is much scarier than
traditional warfare because it allows targeted
groups to be killed without affecting others,
and in a much simpler and cheaper way.
quite honestly, the quicker we figure out how
to get colonies set up on other planets, the more
chance humankind has of surviving this kind of
nightmare scenario.
cheers,
graham
Re:Biotech and Biowarfare Equipment (Score:1)
The book, by the way, includes a scenario with an attack inside a major shopping mall.
Re:Biotech and Biowarfare Equipment (Score:1)
There was a good lecture here in Minneapolis a few years back, regarding bio terrorism, from the head of the State Health. Seems we've got the #1, A-plus site to distribute it ... the MALL OF AMERICA. Huge crowds, national airline hub, zero security.
About the only thing that cheers me up is that most terrorists lack the discipline and/or brains to learn how (effectively and safely ... not much point to it if you kill yourself along the way). Witness the general lack of success with bombs. People like McVeigh are the dangerous types - they have the training and brains to do things right. Imagine someone like him - in motivation and US Military training - but this time in the bio-warfare department.
Frightening anecdote... (Score:2)
"How do you detect Anthrax?", he said, "Take a picture and count the dead bodies. Birds, cattle, people -- if they're all laying on the ground, anthrax is there."
That sort of sobered the rest of the meeting.
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox (Score:1)
Related Books (Score:2)
Cutting of health service money (Score:2)
It's not only the fact that public funding for health service money has declined, it's also the fact that as more and more treatments are developed the money has to be stretched to cover more and more things. Even if funding has remained constant in real terms, quality of service and the degree of slack would have dropped simply in order to make these treatments available to people who previously would have had to have gone without.
Saying that of course, does not mean that the general unwillingness of voters and governments to give money to health services is right. With more and more threats to the American people from rogue nations and Islamic terrorists, this kind of threat becomes more and more likely. After all, it takes a hell of a lot of infrastructure to develop and maintain nuclear weapons, and it is relatively easy for intelligence services to spot such activities.
However a biological weapon can be developed in a small lab using off the shelf technology easily bought as "medical supplies". The risks of detection are minimal, especially in an age where the very people that protect us from these threats are perceived as being somehow evil and wrong. Despite liberal notions that "we are all the same underneath", we aren't, and there are a lot of people out there like Osama Bin Laden who hate the US and all it stands for.
Strong international security measures and a more proactive stance along with an increased emphasis internally on such threats is the only way to deal with this possibility. Son of Star Wars is a child's toy designed to protect against a threat highly unlikely to ever materialize, but we have nothing no defend our country against this far more dangerous threat.
Suicide (Score:2)
So this leads me down two avenues of thought which, since this is /., I'll share with you all.
- Because of the unpredictability of the outcome, you'd have to be crazy to deploy bioweapons. Unfortunately, there are a whole bunch of people in the world who are by most of our standards, crazy, for example those who believe that if they die killing the infidel they go straight to heaven. And there are people who are crazy by anyone's standards. All this means that sanctions (jail sentences, even the death penalty) and retaliation are not effective in deterring attack. Not to mention that bioweapons are a lot easier to manufacture after initial development than nuclear or conventional weapons, and that biological knowledge is widespread.
- Bioweapons that attack food supplies are far more likely to be used. if country A eats wheat and potatoes, and country B eats rice and soy, they can attack each others food without fear of contaminating their own supply (assuming of course that your enemy doesn't turn around and do the same thing to you).
- It's only a matter of time before bioweapons are invented that can target racial characteristics. That's the #1 nightmare scenario to worry about.
Well, OK, so that was about 2.5 thoughtsRe:We just can't win. (Score:2)
This knowledge leads to a fatalistic response in most people; is it really worth worrying about something that you can do nothing about? It's kinda like me, living in earthquake country. I can't really do anything to stop or avoid an earthquake, all I can do is prepare for the *aftermath* of it.
Problem with biowarfare is not killing yourself. (Score:2)
Having growing high-titer stocks of poliovirus (vaccine strain) myself, under moderate containment, I can tell you there's no way in hell that I'd work with a potent biowarfare agent that required high containment. Suicidal, unless you're very highly trained. I'd sooner fill my basement with C-4 than have a single vial of a biowarfare agent.
Re:And (Score:2)
Bababooey to you all !!! !!
Back by popular demand
Though not by the FCC!
Howdya like them apples?
Horse-tooth jackass.
(Howard rocks! Finally a first post troll I can get behind!)
Hemos is a Moron (Score:2)
The Las Vegas FBI sting? I believe what Hemos is talking about here is the fact that in 1998 two people were arrested for trying to buy anthrax in Las Vegas.
Of course what Hemos can't be bothered to check on (heard of a web search?) is that the government was forced to drop the charges because the anthrax the two gentlement were trying to purchase was non-infectious and unable to be converted into a biological weapon.
More FUD from the masters of it at Slashdot.
Mother Jones - Front Page Last Month (Score:1)
I'm not saying that a biological terrorist threat is impossible. I'm saying that the hysteria surrounding it is causing our representatives and senators to justify pumping billions into preparedness programs that could be better spent elsewhere. If just one economist sat down (liberal or conservative) and did a CBA of this situation the sound of that jaw jitting the floor would be heard for miles. It's insane. It's comparable to $20 dollar screws and $100 screwdrivers.
More frustrating than the spending is the way in which people are buying this without skepticism. Without even questioning the legitimacy of the attack, damage, or threat, they are behind the spending and engrossed in the fear - the vivid images of death and gore, bags of sugar, the images of aerosol cans, salad bars, subway cars.
There are bigger threats to the health of our nation and they aren't solved with military budget increases - as the author mentioned, the problematic state of our health system - could perhaps be the biggest threat to the health and safety of americans.
More money is lost every year due to people missing work than to bio-terrorists. More money needs to be sent reforming healthcare than on anti-terrorist activites. I haven't had a chance to read this book, but I've read other articles along these lines and it sounds like books like this, taken in the wrong context (and even take straight-up) fan the flames of fear and knee-jerk spending.
I will read this at my library, but I'm not buying it.
Two words... (Score:2)
The only thing keeping this beast from becoming rife around the world is it's burn-out rate - it typically kills its victoms before it can effectively spread.
There is no known cure for this contagion, though some individuals seem to be more resistant, and live through it, than others. Even so, the mortality rate for those contracting it is very high. Death fortunately comes quickly after initial onset of symptoms (which at first look suspiciously like cold or flu symptoms) - though not in any pleasent manner (essentially one bleeds out of every orifice on the body - including pores).
All it would take would be a release on a major population center with a good transportation hub (Paris, London, Los Angeles, Tokyo, etc) - preferably the release would happen in the transportation hub itself, in a terrorist attack. The contagion spreads mainly through blood and mucous (phlem), though there have been hints at it possibly being able to be airborne as well (scary shit).
Worldcom [worldcom.com] - Generation Duh!
The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant. (Score:2)
Having an NBC suit and gas mask buried at the back of the closet is a good idea for anyone, but so few people do it that even a moronic terrorist is going to be able to do a lot of damage to the general population with minimal effort.
Agreed, there's no way that a biological terrorism attack could be stopped. Except for one thing: consider it to be an act of warfare propagated by the citizens of country who did it.
Granted, there's internal terrorism (Oklahoma City, for example), and part of the beauty of biological weapons is stealth, so you might not always figure out even who did it.
But, generally, whoever did it is going to jump up and down and scream at the top of his lungs "Loooook at what zee Islamic jihad has done to you stuuupid Amereeecan eeeeenfidels! Allah weeel have no mercy on your souls!".
The fact is that any terrorist organization that does this is going to broadcast the fact that it's in retaliation for some perceived injustice. And they'd probably do it to protest some American policy that has somehow allegedly affected their lovely homeland.
So, very simply, you make it known that the American policy towards biological attack will be a nuclear retaliation against the country of the terrorist group that did it.
Sure, many here will vehemently disagree with a policy that essentially amounts to a continuation of the cold war strategy of mutually assured destruction, but I've given this a lot of thought over the years, and there's no other way that I can think of scaring terrorist groups into not doing this sort of thing.
Remember, terrorists are people who will blow a commercial jet full of innocent civilians out of the sky because of a real or perceived injustice. There is no rational or intelligent way of dealing with someone who thinks it's a religious or other calling to kill innocent people.
In 1985, Sikh terrorists blew an Air India flight out of the sky, killing many Canadian citizens who were merely travelling to India. 329 people who had nothing to do with the Indian government died, though the bombing was in protest to the way Sikhs are treated in India. I'm sure their complaints are valid, but I reserve judgement on that. The fact is, terrorism is stealthy; if it gets extended to a magnitude as big as chemical/nuclear/biological weapons, I suggest that these groups be warned that they will feel a retaliation of a similar magnitude plus a little extra for punitive reasons.
So, as a case in point, say a faction of Iranians decide to drop a biological agent in New York City. Fine. USAF drops a nuclear agent on their area of Iran in retaliation. Surely, the last thing they would want is a devastation of their homeland, so they won't even get the US started.
Mutually assured destruction is idiotic, but at least it's better than the cowardice of terrorism.
Re:Biological Terror FUD (Score:2)
Improving our public health system would benifit us a nation in many ways. It is good public policy.
The cure of the ills of Democracy is more Democracy.
Re:This goes hand in hand... (Score:1)
Re:But is it worht the risk to attempt (Score:2)
The character spread it by infecting himself with the airborne stage of it and taking a world tour.
It's an interesting story.
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
Wasn't it an American reporter and Democratic party advocate (Dan Savage, of Salon) who engaged in his own highly targeted and primitive version of bioterrorism in his attempt to make presidential candidate Gary Bauer sick with the flu?
How is this different than some green party luddite cooking up some new germs in a basement lab as a means of forcing society to return to a primative "ideal" (in their assessment, perhaps) state?
How fitting that the BATF and FBI types are breaking down doors of survivalists who might have a few positive thoughts on protection from these harms, while possibly ignoring the more probable, internal threat from the far left.
As in enterprise network security, more often than not, your greatest threat is from within...
*scoove*
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
Re:Suicide (Score:2)
The technology doesn't exist yet, as far as I know. But theoretically, it is possible to create a virus that would be benign unless specific markers were present in the DNA of its host, at which point it would become actively hostile.
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox -- wrong bug! (Score:1)
Here's a link if you want it, concerning the use of the BCG in the US: http://www.cdc.gov/epo/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00041 047.htm [cdc.gov]
Tom.
Re:Bioterror books (Score:1)
The world can't trust the US!! (Score:1)
Nazi Germany didnt suffer Terrorist attacks either (Score:1)
Re:Don't Poo-Poo this Shit.. (pun intended!) (Score:1)
Parts of our system are first rate (Score:2)
To date no one has launched a bio warfare attack on the US, (At least that worked). But sooner or latter someone will.
The cure of the ills of Democracy is more Democracy.
On the lighter side of it all... (Score:2)
Despite what my step-father has said, I am a vector! I have both magnitude and direction - forward! He only thought I had magnitude.
Sorry - couldn't resist.
But sure - viral/bio attacks are quite nasty with this day and age of commercial travel, etc as the poster has pointed out.
What I'd be curious about is how many people would be able to handle a true quarantine of a large city? If a real nasty bugger were to make it into a major metropolitan centre, I'm not sure many people could haul out their family members and neighbours to the death cart a la Monty Python. It wouldn't be pleasant, but I think I could do it.
On that same issue - the aftermath of this disaster would certainly send a lot of people into real shock - face it: how much death does the modern civilization have to deal with on a day to day basis?
What's everyone worried about? (Score:1)
Bioterror books (Score:3)
*shivers*
"I'm not a bitch, I just play one on
We just can't win. (Score:3)
Having an NBC suit and gas mask buried at the back of the closet is a good idea for anyone, but so few people do it that even a moronic terrorist is going to be able to do a lot of damage to the general population with minimal effort.
Biotech and Biowarfare Equipment (Score:2)
The real problem with this is that most of the equipment that can be used to create biological and chemical agents has very real and very moral uses. Whats more the developing world often needs this equipment more than the developed world because they have agriculturally based economies which require the various vats and mixers to make fertilizers.
This is not to categorize the entire developing world as terrorists, but this is an example of how basic equipment necessary for fundamental manufacturing in most nations can be used for a more nefarious purpose.
Strangely enough, guess the growing medium (Score:1)
You guessed it, hot grits.
Dobbsian (Score:1)
Re:We just can't win. (Score:3)
In all probability any bio-device would take the form of an airborn virus or bactieria, maybe a very virulent form of Infuenza. The person who is walking past you in a store could be passing it along to you without eather of you knowing it.
And with air travel it is posible for something to spread world wide in a matter of 2-3 days.
The idea that someone would pick up Ebola in somewhere like Uganda and get on a plane for London gives a lot of folks down at the CDC the screaming willies I'm sure.
The cure of the ills of Democracy is more Democracy.
Re:And (Score:1)
- Champs
--
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox -- wrong bug! (Score:1)
In case any of you were wondering, the last smallpox vaccinations were given in 1973 (now you know what that strange circular scar on your upper arm is), and the last major epidemic of smallpox happened in 1972. Bad news, though, those of you last vaccinated in 1973 or earlier are no longer immune, unless you're naturally immune, which happens, just not often.
However, it's known that at least four litres of biowarfare grade smallpox exist, and that (according to an article from The New Yorker on the subject from 1999), "even one case of smallpox would constitute a global emergency," Various health organizations worldwide plan to begin vaccinating again by as early as 2002.
Interrobang, in line for that already
Re:Fear us more maybe? (Score:1)
Regrettably, there are both countries and people out there who actually kinda prefer the one-race kinda thing (although race, among humans, is kind of a bogus concept: species is usually defined as non-interfertility). I know of one 'incident' where a white South African type was dispatched back home when someone clued into the possible ramifications of his work on curing sickle-cell anemia ... whether or not he was actually working on a real cure, the fear of what he might do will prevent that kind of research for years to come.
We have been hit w/ bio weapons (Score:1)
Biological Terror FUD (Score:1)
Perutz's conclusion is that many people previously involved in bio-warfare projects are now sowing FUD [tuxedo.org] to enhance their own prestige and to generate opportunities in spurious counterterrorism (as Henry Sokolski notes below, fears of terrorism have generated $10 billion annually in spending by the U.S. government alone).
Perutz quotes an article [wizard.net] by Henry Sokolski [wizard.net], the director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center [wizard.net] in Washington, saying:
One such risk, which should be of great concern toRe:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
Something to consider... (Score:2)
Why hasn't this happened yet? Well for one thing, there aren't any organisms like that. For whatever reason they just don't exist. It might not even be physically feasible for such an organism to exist, so we might not even ever have to worry about it.
Secondly, the kinds of people who would want to destroy the entire human race usually lack the key component of sanity; they are not necessarily thinking straight. So something like this is usually beyond their capacity.
Yeah, I know, all it takes is one person who's stable enough and smart enough, with enough resources, to create something horrible and do horrible things to the entire world. The problem is that if this was going to happen, I find it hard to believe that it wouldn't have already. I'm not saying it can't happen, but the chance is so remote that fretting about it is about as productive as fretting about whether or not aliens from Neptune are going to fry our brains.
Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom. As long as we keep watching, we'll be doing as good a job as we can, and worrying about it beyond that is pointless.
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:2)
How fitting that the BATF and FBI types are breaking down doors of survivalists who might have a few positive thoughts on protection from these harms, while possibly ignoring the more probable, internal threat from the far left.
Agreed. There are probably more potential Tim McVeighs out there than one would be happy to consider. (Not to paint McVeigh as far left or far right, he was just far out there.)
But there's also the potential of things going from the far right, too. Look at Fred Phelps of the God Hates Fags website [godhatesfags.com]. He's about as far right as they come. Let's say that he or one of his followers, all of whom think AIDS is a great thing because it kills off gay/lesbian people (among others), are "told by God" that it's their duty to speed along the process and release a biological warfare agent on the Castro in San Francisco? That agent would spread everywhere, accomplishing the same thing as if it were simply dropped on a BART subway platform in Oakland.
So, I the summary of my point is far *.* is dangerous. The far left and far right are both equally ludicrous and dangerous.
As in enterprise network security, more often than not, your greatest threat is from within...True. Though it's tough to have an internal policy that will nuke east Texas if someone drops a biological agent because they didn't like the way the DOJ handled Waco. My suggested means could only work effectively against foreign anti-American organizations.
And speaking as a Canadian citizen, my shame in my country still stings strongly: it was just over a year ago that an individual who had been granted landed immigrant status in Canada (from Algeria) decided to attempt to blow up the Seattle Space Needle on New Year's 2000 in the name of some sort of Algerian independence army or some other taxi-driver crap. There needs to be an effective countermeasure to international terrorism, and I can't think of a better way than my suggestion of mutually assured destruction.
BTW, based on that incident, I'm sorely tempted to move to the US and apply for refugee status both for legitimate immigration purposes and as a publicity stunt. This incident - and a list of many other similiar demonstrations of ineptitude - proves that my country harbors (and gives welfare to) terrorists, if only due to its own ineffectiveness at keeping undesirable immigrants out.
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
Agreed!
Per your Canadian perspective, I'm compelled to add a few thoughts from a Midwest USA (or as Al Gore operative Paul Begalla says, "fly over country") perspective.
It would seem that urbanization increases the impact of the NBC threat. Putting 90% of the population in a few convenient locations (complete with quick air transportation in and out for the "biotourist") seems as practical as an e-commerce merchant storing most of the credit card numbers on the public web server. "Well, that's where the transactions are" isn't always the best excuse.
This puzzles me every time I drive thru northeast Kansas, for example, and see one after another abandoned farm houses. Besides being a better place to raise families, facilitating greater awareness of the environment, and reducing demand on the monolithic food distribution system, it reduces the impact of a NBC threat by distributing the population.
Hopefully with broadband wireless connections, at least technology workers can get out of the cities and mitigate the risk.
Just imagine: a post-NBC catastrophy world mostly comprised of Slashdot geeks...
Re:To: jswatz, Re: I happen to have... (Score:1)
Building the public health infrastructure is something we can do now, and if done right can PREVENT casualties with quick vaccinations and treatment as soon as a disease outbreak is identified.
Let's draw a parallel to computer system defense. Those who maintain big systems know that they will be targets simply because they are big. They do what they can to defend themselves, but they also invest heavily in quick response so that if a problem gets past those initial defenses (which can happen to anybody, no matter how well prepared) the recovery is quick and the damage is minimized.
You can argue that if Bill Gates changed the entire business plan of Microsoft, he would not be such a target for attacks like the recent intrusion into the Msft networks, but let's face it: 1) What kind of changes to you reasonably expect?; 2) What kind of changes would satisfy those who already hate msft? 3) What makes anyone think that those who hate msft are a cohesive group with an easily defined set of conditions that, once met, would elicit an end to crack attempts?
I might have stretched the analogy to the breaking point there, but I feel pretty strongly that in this world, you do what you CAN do, and you do what can produce RESULTS. Maybe it's my background--I grew up in Texas, a very conservative state, and those of us who believed in opportunities for the disadvantaged, for civil liberties, for sound environmental policy and the like learned that half a loaf is better than none. The issues at stake were too important for any less practical approach.
but we need that money... (Score:2)
Sorry, pal, but we need that money for an asteroid shield. First things first!
Seriously, I think one has to attempt make a realistic assessment of the threat and prioritize it amongst many other potential risks civilization faces every day.
Does the book include or reference any assessments of actual likelihoods of such attacks, and rank their expected severity against that of other threats?
I notice that quite a few of the responses to this article contain the expected degree of hysteria. Fear of the unknown quantity is a very powerful persuasive tool, and its abuse can be a form of infoterrorism: a way of achieving desired political goals, without actual bloodshed. I see this tactic used in the computer business all the time: to sell expensive firewalls to gullible companies that would be fine with something at 1/10th the cost, for example. When faced with such issues, we should consider very carefully the degree to which our response is based on unreasoning fear.
Re:Related Books (Score:1)
Re:Mother Jones - Front Page Last Month (Score:1)
Especially you, since in the book Mike and I take on the overspending on defenses against "weapons of mass destruction" in general and describe many of the wrongheaded programs that pour money into military/police solutions that cannot work. We also compare that spending to the comparatively small amount of money being used to address the public health side of the equation, and try to explain why the public health spending will pay dividends in a generally healthier nation.
Mall of American = BioCentral? (Score:1)
Many of us hams in my part of the Midwest participated in an Air Force bioterrorism exercise a few months ago that was based on a ficticious biological-based terrorist attack in Minneapolis. They sent plane-loads of people to places throughout the midwest to receive treatment since in the scenario, the local hospitals were overloaded. They relied upon local ARES amateur radio groups to provide for the communications logistics.
If you read about the US's FEMA [fema.gov] and related NBC-related civil defense programs, you'll be surprised to see how much of a role volunteer geeks get to play.
I'd suggest for anyone interested in the topic to check out their local ham group and if in the US, learn about their area's ARES (Amateur Radio Emergency Service) [ares.org] or RACES [races.net] programs.
Building a backup voice and data infrastructure through spare parts on spare time for fun can be a heck of a challenge!
*scoove*
Re:Suicide (Score:1)
Tech Level Not Available (Score:1)
>step 1:
>you create a custom virus that spreads easily,
>has no obvious symptoms, and lurks in your body
>for a pre-programmable amount of time before
>suddenly springing into action and killing you.
>it is only activated if your body contains
>certain characteristic genes. for example, you
>could create a version of this virus that only
>targets people with fair skin, or those with
>a chinese background.
Fortunately, we do not have this technology currently, and there are aspects of this step that may never be possible. I can't say that I've been working on bioterror weapons, but I've been doing molecular biology work as part of the human genome project (HGP) for 4 years now - the basic laboratory technique and technologies are similar or identical to what one would use if developing biological weapons. We simply do not understand fundamental biochemistry well enough to accomplish the tasks in step 1. There are thousands of researchers who would pay dearly to have such an understanding, as it would mean that many infectious diseases would be much easier to treat. We may have such an understanding of pathogen biology in a couple decades - this prophecy has been made for the past half century, however, so such a prediction is likely of little value.
As per the HGP providing the means for targeted bioweapons, I think in fact the reverse may be true. What is clear is that diverse human groups share an extraordinary genetic conservation. On average, individuals differ at only 1 in 1000 nucleotides (the DNA units). Most of these differences are single nucleotide substitutions (termed SNPs) in non-coding (non-protein making) DNA. I can see no way of using current technology to target a pathogen to a SNP.
As per larger differences, in most cases it is also unclear how to use this as a distinguishing factor for a targeted pathogen. How precisely would a virus preferentially infect (or harm) an individual with a certain level of melanin (skin pigment) production?
I find that the standard counter-argument is along the lines that "well, perhaps we don't know how to do this now, but in the future we probably will!" While this is a possibility, it's also not a useful argument for discussion, because it applies to any technological threat - perhaps in the future bioterrorism will not matter, because we will be overrun by a nanite ooze, or collapsed the planet after CERN generates a micro-black hole, etc, etc.
Currently, if you wanted to attack a single group, the available tech would seem to point to, ironically, non-transmissible agents like anthrax. So long as your target was geographically isolated, you could limit dispersal of the agent to that area.
Hmm. Perhaps an even cheaper method would be to simply launch a large advertising campaign encouraging smoking, targeted against the group you wished to harm. For a terror campaign this has the advantage of harming large numbers of the population and being legal in almost all countries, but the disadvantage that few people seem to be frightened by it.
-Chuckan
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
Re:Bioterror books (Score:1)
The name of the author is Frank Herbert. If you enjoyed The White Plague, you might also enjoy The Whipping Star and other of his non-Dune writing.
Rev. Dr. Xenophon Fenderson, the Carbon(d)ated, KSC, DEATH, SubGenius, mhm21x16
Re:Related Books (Score:2)
Of the books you listed, I've only read Cobra Event... Herbert's book is far, FAR superior while dealing with a nearly identical concept. In his, though, the bioterrorist succeeds and the majority of the book deals with the aftermath in a very believable manner.
--
Fear us more maybe? (Score:1)
Weapons of Mass Destruction (Score:1)
Weren't soldiers of Desert Storm exposed to certain kinds of biological weapons and warfare. I'm sure whether or not the government will admit to it, their soldiers were, and I'm also sure they've been doing the benchmarking on vaccines for certain types of situations.
The author can get into some conspiracy about the cold war being over and smallpox being available, hell you could probably get this on ebay if you tried hard enough, but I think this book may be trying to be a scare tactic into purchasing that same book being you could get the same information, if not better, more detailed information online. (just bribe India's new h4x0r kiddies for info.)
I'd like to see more on technological warfare posted, such as HERF, EMP, [infowar.com] and get views on those states, vaccines can illnessess can be cured and with the mapping of DNA I'm sure things will level out on the playing field, but tell me about the vaccine to cure NASDAQ from a HERF attack which would cripple the economy over than you'll catch my attention.
Removing the dot in dot.com [antioffline.com]
Why single out Russia? (Score:2)
Chickenpox / cowpox (Score:1)
This goes hand in hand... (Score:2)
Better to ask, why is the US such a taget for terrorism?
Maybe, just maybe, if the US didn't attempt to dictate policy in other autonomous countries, their activists/fanatics wouldn't try to kill Americans overseas (or at home).
Maybe, the era of the US playing big brother to the rest of the world is over!
Naah.
Fearmongering, silly fearmongering (Score:2)
If Anthrax is so deadly, how come there weren't Bubonic type plagues of it when it was prevalent? It may be deadly, but it's not so easy to get. The odds of a person inhaling enough spores to get infected are pretty slim.
Ebola is scary, but it's so virulent, it kills the hosts before it can spread well.
Most dangerous plagues require a host that doesn't get sick to spread it around, ie bubonic plague and rats, and hanthavirii and mice. Modest housekeeping efforts are all you really need to prevent these.
oh well, maybe they'll sell lots of books.
Comment Requirement (Score:1)
Just an observation.. (Score:2)
If you're really worried about a NBC threat, then don't live in a big city. Problem solved. There's almost nothing you could do about a big threat in a city, anyhow - it's not the bacterium I'd be worried about, it's the mass panic and rioting that would happen shortly after. Any threat large enough to impact a small city or rural setting probably already took out civilization as you know it, so there's no point in worrying. That's a country mouse's opinion, anyhow.. I'll just add that to the list of why I like sparsly populated areas (go Canada! :).
Re:But is it worht the risk to attempt (Score:2)
Not really. Those guys driving the boat left behind a country and people they felt were safer because for a short time a US ship was disabled. Self sacrafice for the greater goor is nothing new, but sacrafice of EVERYONE with your ideals is new. There is a difference. I'm willing to die for freedom if it means after my death people will be more free (in whatever way), but I'm not willing to die for freedom if it means that there will be nobody to enjoy the freedom. There is a difference.
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox -- wrong bug! (Score:1)
Actually, a friend of mine who was born in Turkey in 1980 received a smallpox vaccination when she was young. I'm not sure exactly when, but it had to be the early/mid '80s.
Apparently the doctor was considered a kook for still giving smallpox vaccinations... but maybe that's a good thing now? hmm...
How can you prepare? (Score:3)
1. If a terrorist wants to make his/her own biological weapon with a known virus it is not technically hard to do.
2. People that want to do this will pretty much ignore all laws, and try and thwart all security, they are after all terorists.
3. People that DO prepare themselves (dig their own wells, keep medical other survival equipment etc) are considered militia members, or extremists.
Reports like this highlite SOME relavant facts. The also are generally used by BIG govt. to take away your freedom. par example "Everyone needs to carry ID cards because one of us might be a terrorist trying to get a nasty virus into the drinking water." Things like this. In the end there are some common sense steps that govt. can take to help prepare for such a disaster. These steps will be ignored in favor of goon squads roaming the streets paid with millions of your tax payer dollars "looking" for terrorists. (see also "the war on drugs")
The new hit FOX television show "Tear Unit" We ride with real life anti-terrorist units as they roam America looking for wrong doers and people without ID cards!
Look out people, America is soon to change it's spelling to AmeriKKa. Land of the Free to live how we tell them to!
I happen to have Marshall McLuhan right here... (Score:5)
lemme respond to a few of the comments:
* "you'd have to be crazy to deploy bioweapons."
That's true for state-sponsored terrorism, and for terrorists of the old IRA school, who felt a strong tie to their people and didn't want to lose support through gruesome acts. But with the rise of a new kind of terrorist like the "lone wolf" who seeks to destabilize socieities no matter the cost, the risk of somebody releasing an agent as virulent as smallpox has grown.
* "The also are generally used by BIG govt. to take away your freedom."
It's true that the prospect of bioterrorism has been used by some people to call for restrictions on academic freedom and civil liberties. If you read Living Terrors, however, you'll find that we focus instead on the kind of recommendations that preserve civil liberties while actually making a difference--chiefly, upgrading the public health system to be able to respond quickly to a bioterrorist attack. That kind of spending is needed anyway for responding to foodborne disease outbreaks and run-of-the-mill epidemics, so it's just sound public policy.
* "If Anthrax is so deadly, how come there weren't Bubonic type plagues of it when it was prevalent? It may be deadly, but it's not so easy to get. The odds of a person inhaling enough spores to get infected are pretty slim. "
Anthrax is deadly, but not contagious. Inhaling very few spores can begin the process of infection, but it stops there. An anthrax attack would be very different from a smallpox attack, clearly. Even so, the Office of Technology Assessment estimated that an airborne release of about 100 kg of anthrax spores over Washington, D.C. could kill between one and three million people. I guess you could say that they were scaremongering, too, but I wouldn't agree with you.
But terrorists don't need to kill EVERYBODY; they are happy to kill, say, thousands, and bring about a massive panic in the process. As Lord Kano wrote in this discussion, "even a moronic terrorist is going to be able to do a lot of damage to the general population with minimal effort." The chemical attack in the Tokyo subways was a very sloppy job: the Sarin was poorly made, and the deliver method (putting the chemical in plastic bags and breaking them open with umbrella tips) was laughably inefficient. But people died, thousands were affected, and a national panic ensued. You don't have to be especially good at this stuff to have an effect.
As for Ebola, you're partly right--it's not a very good bioterror agent. Though it's moderately contagious, it has proved difficult to cultivate and "weaponize" (at least that's what Soviet scientists found), and it can be pretty well controlled with Western sanitation methods.
* "To date no one has launched a bio warfare attack on the US, (At least that worked)."
It's true that no government has launched a bio warfare attack against the US, but biological terrorism has been attempted by groups not affiliated with the government. Members of the Rajneeshee cult infected a salad bar with salmonella in 1984, for example, attempting to affect the outcome of a local election.
--John
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox -- wrong bug! (Score:1)
Your Turkish friend probably isn't still immune -- but I'd say that doctor was less of a kook than the locals thought...
Re:Chickenpox / cowpox -- wrong bug! (Score:1)
Your Turkish friend probably isn't still immune -- but I'd say that doctor was less of a kook than the locals thought...
Re:Fearmongering, silly fearmongering (Score:1)
The reason that Anthrax hasn't developed into "Bubonic type plagues" on its own is that it is indeed not that easy to contract from dead animals etc, since dead animals e.g. don't tend to blow up spontaneously. When military tests with the agent has been conducted, such as was done on Gruinard Island off the coast of Scotland, then indeed the subjects (mainly sheep) contracted the disease with high probability.
When we're thinking terrorism, we're thinking about e.g. someone driving a truck around with the proper aerosol equipment (which is cheap to buy, and easy to make). Not about cattle dying in the pastures.
Delivery mechanism makes all the difference in this case. And the proper way to deliver this agent has been known for the past fifty years.
The other side of the issue. (Score:1)
Straight Dope: Are deadly germs the latest terrorist weapon? [straightdope.com]
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:1)
That makes a lot of sense.
Re:Problem with biowarfare is not killing yourself (Score:1)
"Of the comrades assigned to the manufacture of improvised incendiaries and explosives, half were subsequently killed or maimed."
So if you can accept that kind of casualty rate, there's ample historic evidence that you can find the work force (and sufficiently skilled at that) to do the dirty work. Given the right (or wrong) cause.
A dose of pseudo-reality (Score:1)
The REAL jabber has the /. user id: 13196
Re:Suicide (Score:1)
email for reference
Re:The Solution is Quite Clear but very unpleasant (Score:2)
It wouldn't be too much better than what we have right now. I've noticed that most of us are staunch supporters of one side or another. Very few of us have the "I have a steady job, so I don't care" mentality.
We'd have the vegans vs. everybody else. We'd have "Pro-choice" vs. "Pro-life". We'd have the gun rights crowd vs. the con control crowd. All day, every day we'd have this. Though they have many drawbacks, the mindless masses are useful for keeping society stable and in a relative state of peace.
LK
Infected Review (Score:2)
Your review seems to be infected with Microsoft proprietary characters [www.hut.fi].
Re:Just an observation.. (Score:2)
Scary as all hell isn't it.
The cure of the ills of Democracy is more Democracy.
But is it worht the risk to attempt (Score:2)
sure small pox is fairly easy to spread, and few people of reproductive age have had the vaccene. However is it worth trying to spread it? Remember with todays connected world you can expect anything highly contagious would spread back to their own country and kill their loved ones too. vacinating most people in russia (or wherever) is not easy to do, so they have to consider loss will strike their people heavialy too.
This isn't 1880 when my great-great grandpa went back to germany (a month travel each way) to vist family, and had to stay an extra 6 months because a war stoped all travel. With todays air travel infecting a small number of people with something that will get most of the target country will get all their allies will get all their allies will get ... eventially everyone in your country as switzerlan is infected and then your peple get infected there.
The Flu spreads every year because people get incontact with someone with it. AIDS does not spread nearly as quickly because it is harder to spread. (One could make a case that a religion designed HIV to kill anyone willing to have sex with someone else who has multipul partners. True belivers are immune because they don't do that. Unlikely, but the case could be made.)
Medical information (Score:4)
If you are interested in the types of bacterium and virii used in Biowarfare and some of their symptoms, check out http://telemedicine.org/BioWar/biologic.htm [telemedicine.org].
Warning, the site is pretty graphic and is aimed at medical professionals. Examine it at your own risk.
Scared Shitting (Score:2)
I'm not trying to be a "doomsday" sayer, but I'm now more worried about the guy down the street destroying a city than I am about Iraq playing with their PS2s, India building nukes, and all the conspiracy theories in the world combined.
This story isn't news for nerds, it's news for everyone. This is some serious shit man...
Like Karma doesn't matter...
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