Removing 50 Objects from Orbit Would Cut Danger From Space Junk in Half (arstechnica.com) 19
If we could remove the 50 most concerning pieces of space debris in low-Earth orbit, there'd be a 50% reduction in the overall debris-generating potential, reports Ars Technica. That's according to Darren McKnight, lead author of a paper presented Friday at the International Astronautical Congress in Sydney, which calculated the objects most likely to collide with other fragments and create more debris. (Russia and the Soviet Union lead with 34 objects, followed by China with 10, the U.S. with three, Europe with two, and Japan with one.) Even just the top 10 were removed, the debris-generating potential drops by 30%.
"The things left before 2000 are still the majority of the problem," he points out, and "76% of the objects in the top 50 were deposited last century." 88% of the objects are post-mission rocket bodies left behind to hurtle through space. "The bad news is, since January 1, 2024, we've had 26 rocket bodies abandoned in low-Earth orbit that will stay in orbit for more than 25 years," McKnight told Ars... China launched 21 of the 26 hazardous new rocket bodies over the last 21 months, each averaging more than 4 metric tons (8,800 pounds). Two more came from US launchers, one from Russia, one from India, and one from Iran. This trend is likely to continue as China steps up deployment of two megaconstellations — Guowang and Thousand Sails — with thousands of communications satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Launches of these constellations began last year. The Guowang and Thousand Sails satellites are relatively small and likely capable of maneuvering out of the way of space debris, although China has not disclosed their exact capabilities. However, most of the rockets used for Guowang and Thousand Sails launches have left their upper stages in orbit. McKnight said nine upper stages China has abandoned after launching Guowang and Thousand Sails satellites will stay in orbit for more than 25 years, violating the international guidelines.
It will take hundreds of rockets to fully populate China's two major megaconstellations. The prospect of so much new space debris is worrisome, McKnight said. "In the next few years, if they continue the same trend, they're going to leave well over 100 rocket bodies over the 25-year rule if they continue to deploy these constellations," he said. "So, the trend is not good...." Since 2000, China has accumulated more dead rocket mass in long-lived orbits than the rest of the world combined, according to McKnight. "But now we're at a point where it's actually kind of accelerating in the last two years as these constellations are getting deployed."
A deputy head of China's national space agency recently said China is "currently researching" how to remove space debris from orbit, according to the article. ("One of the missions China claims is testing space debris mitigation techniques has docked with multiple spacecraft in orbit, but U.S. officials see it as a military threat. The same basic technologies needed for space debris cleanup — rendezvous and docking systems, robotic arms, and onboard automation — could be used to latch on to an adversary's satellite.")
"The things left before 2000 are still the majority of the problem," he points out, and "76% of the objects in the top 50 were deposited last century." 88% of the objects are post-mission rocket bodies left behind to hurtle through space. "The bad news is, since January 1, 2024, we've had 26 rocket bodies abandoned in low-Earth orbit that will stay in orbit for more than 25 years," McKnight told Ars... China launched 21 of the 26 hazardous new rocket bodies over the last 21 months, each averaging more than 4 metric tons (8,800 pounds). Two more came from US launchers, one from Russia, one from India, and one from Iran. This trend is likely to continue as China steps up deployment of two megaconstellations — Guowang and Thousand Sails — with thousands of communications satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Launches of these constellations began last year. The Guowang and Thousand Sails satellites are relatively small and likely capable of maneuvering out of the way of space debris, although China has not disclosed their exact capabilities. However, most of the rockets used for Guowang and Thousand Sails launches have left their upper stages in orbit. McKnight said nine upper stages China has abandoned after launching Guowang and Thousand Sails satellites will stay in orbit for more than 25 years, violating the international guidelines.
It will take hundreds of rockets to fully populate China's two major megaconstellations. The prospect of so much new space debris is worrisome, McKnight said. "In the next few years, if they continue the same trend, they're going to leave well over 100 rocket bodies over the 25-year rule if they continue to deploy these constellations," he said. "So, the trend is not good...." Since 2000, China has accumulated more dead rocket mass in long-lived orbits than the rest of the world combined, according to McKnight. "But now we're at a point where it's actually kind of accelerating in the last two years as these constellations are getting deployed."
A deputy head of China's national space agency recently said China is "currently researching" how to remove space debris from orbit, according to the article. ("One of the missions China claims is testing space debris mitigation techniques has docked with multiple spacecraft in orbit, but U.S. officials see it as a military threat. The same basic technologies needed for space debris cleanup — rendezvous and docking systems, robotic arms, and onboard automation — could be used to latch on to an adversary's satellite.")
Fundamental Cause of the Kessler Syndrome (Score:3)
If the Kessler Syndrome occurs the fundamental cause is the existence of "fragment mines" -- massive bodies that will persist in orbit a long time and continually shed new fragments as they are bombarded. That is what this article is talking about.
Re:Fundamental Cause of the Kessler Syndrome (Score:4, Informative)
If you are behind in a space race, you are incentivized to encourage the Kessler Syndrome, because if no one can use space, the disadvantage is gone.
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None of the top offenders - Russia, the EU, China, and the US, are really in that position though. They all rely on LEO for a variety of military and civilian systems.
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If the Kessler Syndrome occurs the fundamental cause is the existence of "fragment mines" -- massive bodies that will persist in orbit a long time and continually shed new fragments as they are bombarded. That is what this article is talking about.
Just sitting here smiling, I've consulted for years that humanity are simply going to cause a Kessler event.The good news is everyone tells me I'm overly cautious. Too worried about things that won't happen. That everything will deorbit very quickly. Meanwhile, LEO especially gets more and more stuff in orbit. Nothing to see here, right?
I am apparently wrong - until I'm not.
Trump concerned Xi will grab US milit. sats (Score:1)
Is countering with The Pussy Grabber.
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So you're saying he's been playing 4D (spacetime) chess all along?
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Thomas Friedman had a good anecdote in one of his recent columns. People in Europe quizzed him saying doesn't el Bunko realize that Russia, China, et. al. are playing 4-D chess? His response, el Bunko is playing Monopoly.
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Is countering with The Pussy Grabber.
Sounds like the next Austin Powers reboot.
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I think for space travel we should put all our eggs in one basket. Just pick one provider and stop funding all competitors. That way if anything happens to that one provider such as a failure of buiness practices, leadership passing away, failure to inovoate, etc we can really feel the pain of it.
In fact we should do this for everything. Why fund 5 companies to work on a cancer drug, just fund the one who is already closest. Just grow corn. It is the only crop we need and we should find a single strain of c
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I think for space travel we should put all our eggs in one basket. Just pick one provider and stop funding all competitors. That way if anything happens to that one provider such as a failure of buiness practices, leadership passing away, failure to inovoate, etc we can really feel the pain of it.
In fact we should do this for everything. Why fund 5 companies to work on a cancer drug, just fund the one who is already closest. Just grow corn. It is the only crop we need and we should find a single strain of corn that grows best. Monocultures are the best cultures.
No, we're not making Elmo the king of space.
The Top Ten (Score:2)
In case anyone is curious: From the article:
1. A Russian SL-16 rocket launched in 2004
2. Europe's Envisat satellite launched in 2002
3. A Japanese H-II rocket launched in 1996
4. A Chinese CZ-2C rocket launched in 2013
5. A Soviet SL-8 rocket launched in 1985
6. A Soviet SL-16 rocket launched in 1988
7. Russia's Kosmos 2237 satellite launched in 1993
8. Russia's Kosmos 2334 satellite launched in 1996
9. A Soviet SL-16 rocket launched in 1988
10. A Chinese CZ-2D rocket launched in 2019
I don't understand China... (Score:3)
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I think it is just the CCP is really just a headless multiarmed leech at this point. The arms do things but they get in each other's way.
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They are making big moves in space, yet they are currently the biggest source of new space junk. Does this make any sense? If they keep leaving rocket stages floating around in the same area they need for their mega-constellation and other space efforts, they are shooting themselves in the foot...
If you are curious about their outlook and addressing problems, study the Soviet Union's work with radiation emitting elements. Failed reactors (no it isn't just Chernobyl, radiation sources left abandoned, prompt critical events. They shit all over themselves, so doing the same in space is just standard operating procedure.
Planetes is closer and closer to happen (Score:2)
Imagine a mandate to retrieve these 50 pieces, and you get planetes IRL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
We need a deorbiter (Score:2)