'Serious Delays' Hit Satellite Mega-Constellations of China's Starlink Rivals (scmp.com) 15
"A Chinese mega-constellation of communications satellites is facing serious delays," reports the South China Morning Post, "that could jeopardise its ambitions to compete with SpaceX's Starlink for valuable orbital resources."
Only 90 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit for the Qianfan broadband network — also known as the Thousand Sails Constellation or G60 Starlink — well short of the project's goal of 648 by the end of this year... Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, the company leading the project, plans to deploy more than 15,000 satellites by 2030 to deliver direct-to-phone internet services worldwide. To stay on track, Yuanxin — which is backed by the Shanghai municipal government — would have to launch more than 30 satellites a month to achieve its milestones of 648 by the end of 2025 for regional coverage and 1,296 two years later for global connectivity.
The New York Times reports that "the other megaconstellation, Guowang, is even farther behind. Despite plans to launch about 13,000 satellites within the next decade, it has 34 in orbit." A constellation has to launch half of its satellites within five years of successfully applying for its frequencies, and complete the full deployment within seven years, according to rules set by the International Telecommunication Union, a United Nations agency that allocates frequencies. The Chinese megaconstellations are behind on these goals. Companies that fail to hit their targets could be required to reduce the size of their megaconstellations.
Meanwhile SpaceX "has about 8,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and is expanding its lead every month," the Times writes, citing data from the U.S. Space Force and the nonprofit space-data group CelesTrak. (The Times has even created an animation showing Starlink's 8,000 satellites in orbit.) Researchers for the People's Liberation Army predict that the network will become "deeply embedded in the U.S. military combat system." They envision a time when Starlink satellites connect U.S. military bases and serve as an early missile-warning and interception network....
One of the major reasons for China's delay is the lack of a reliable, reusable launcher. Chinese companies still launch satellites using single-use rockets. After the satellites are deployed, rocket parts tumble back to Earth or become space debris... Six years after [SpaceX's] Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it... The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the "Long March" series.
The New York Times reports that "the other megaconstellation, Guowang, is even farther behind. Despite plans to launch about 13,000 satellites within the next decade, it has 34 in orbit." A constellation has to launch half of its satellites within five years of successfully applying for its frequencies, and complete the full deployment within seven years, according to rules set by the International Telecommunication Union, a United Nations agency that allocates frequencies. The Chinese megaconstellations are behind on these goals. Companies that fail to hit their targets could be required to reduce the size of their megaconstellations.
Meanwhile SpaceX "has about 8,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and is expanding its lead every month," the Times writes, citing data from the U.S. Space Force and the nonprofit space-data group CelesTrak. (The Times has even created an animation showing Starlink's 8,000 satellites in orbit.) Researchers for the People's Liberation Army predict that the network will become "deeply embedded in the U.S. military combat system." They envision a time when Starlink satellites connect U.S. military bases and serve as an early missile-warning and interception network....
One of the major reasons for China's delay is the lack of a reliable, reusable launcher. Chinese companies still launch satellites using single-use rockets. After the satellites are deployed, rocket parts tumble back to Earth or become space debris... Six years after [SpaceX's] Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it... The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the "Long March" series.
Not gain (Score:2, Insightful)
Here we go again. "China is failing, no need to worry", then in a few years time "China stole our future tech and we need more export restrictions until we can invent it ourselves!"
If you look at the speed at which China has developed rocket technology and space tech in general, both privately and with government funded research, it's pretty clear that they are going to be a big deal very soon. They have some geographic disadvantages, but they have huge supply chain and rapid development advantages.
TFA also
Fair Comparison (Score:4, Insightful)
The Qianfan program has existed only since Nov 2023. So for a fair comparison, we should look at the first 1.5 years of Starlink. Starlink launched ~960 satellites between May 2019 and Dec 2020. The satellites were 250 kg each. Each Falcon 9 was able to launch 60 of them, so 16 launches. Meanwhile each Qianfan is about 300 kg, same weight as modern Starlinks. The Long March 6A that they use can only carry 18 of them. They have 90 satellites, so it's just 5 launches.
Around 2019, most Falcon 9 boosters could only be reused 2-3 times, with a cost of $50-60 million per launch taking reusability into account. There's no information on the Long March 6A, but the Long March 6C costs around $70 million. There simply isn't a 3x difference in per-launch cost that could explain why Qianfan only did 5 launches as opposed to Starlink's 16.
My guess is they're waiting on the development of cheaper launch systems before spending a lot of money on it. The Long March 6A is made by the government and costs a lot more than it should. There's several private Chinese launch companies that are developing low cost reusable rockets. At least two have completed soft landings, one of those companies has a rocket that reached orbit (though with a disposable one). Check back in a year or two and I suspect the numbers will be very different.
Also keep in mind SpaceX started the reusability program in 2011. It was 2017 when reusing the rockets became economically feasible (i.e. costs less than a new rocket to refurbish). Looking at the advertised price of a Falcon 9 today, I think reusability might have cut the cost by 20% or so at most so that's not the main reason there's been so few Qianfan launches.
Re: (Score:2)
Also these satellites are direct to phone, where as the early Starlink ones needed a hefty receiver. They are doing their usual thing of targeting the next big tech boom, not the current one. Satellite to phone will probably only really take off once Chinese manufacturers start churning out modems and phones with it.
It will be interesting to compare how well it works too, since Chinese companies, particularly Huawei, are already ahead when it comes to cellular and wireless communication technology.
Hmm, I don't want a Chinese Starlink version.... (Score:2)
15k satellites + starlink (Score:2)
What are the environmental costs of vaporizing satellites and other components in the atmosphere? The main plan seems to be to let them deorbit or encourage that somehow. Or blast them with lasers. What's that do to the ozone layer? Where's the toxic pollutants go?
Re: (Score:2)
What toxic pollutants? hydrazine? How much of it do you think they have in proportion to the entire atmosphere of Earth?
Espionage (Score:3)
Six years after [SpaceX's] Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it... The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the "Long March" series
Props to keeping the underpinning technologies secret for this long. That's almost as big of a feat as the engineering itself.
Re: (Score:1)
Six years after [SpaceX's] Falcon 9 began launching Starlink satellites, Chinese firms still have no answer to it... The government has tested nearly 20 rocket launchers in the "Long March" series
Props to keeping the underpinning technologies secret for this long. That's almost as big of a feat as the engineering itself.
Keep crowing, the Chinese will eventually solve their launcher issue, US launch companies will get some ferocious competition and no matter how much their genius CEOs claim to thrive on competition they won't like it. Soon after you'll find the lot of them lobbying the White House for sanctions on their Chines competitors.
The Ringed Planet (Score:2)