People Think They Already Know Everything They Need To Make Decisions 67
New research challenges assumptions about decision-making, revealing people tend to believe they have sufficient information regardless of actual data at hand. A study by Gehlbach, Robinson, and Fletcher, published earlier this month, found participants consistently overestimated their knowledge when given partial information on a hypothetical school merger scenario.
Nearly 90% favored merger when presented pro-merger facts, while only 25% did when given opposing data. However, opinions shifted when full information was provided, suggesting malleability of views despite initial overconfidence. Researchers caution this bias could be exploited in today's fractured media landscape, where partial or misleading information often circulates unchecked.
Nearly 90% favored merger when presented pro-merger facts, while only 25% did when given opposing data. However, opinions shifted when full information was provided, suggesting malleability of views despite initial overconfidence. Researchers caution this bias could be exploited in today's fractured media landscape, where partial or misleading information often circulates unchecked.
TFS (Score:5, Insightful)
People who think they are not stupid, are stupid
People who think they are stupid take steps to ensure they do not do stupid things
Lessons learned, assume that you are stupid and take steps to reduce the impact
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New research challenges assumptions about decision-making, revealing people tend to believe they have sufficient information regardless of actual data at hand.
It reminds me of people wanting to vote for Kamala...
What information do you think these Harris-supporters lack?
Re: TFS (Score:2)
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Yes, I can see that. I was asking the AC to justify his example. If he has no information, then he has no justification -- kind of an example of the quote he pulled from the article.
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The example of the point in the article is himself.
Yes, that was my point. And I got modded Offtopic for making it. Sigh.
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Most people who read this summary will react as follows:
Yes, many people I have spoken with are like this. Especially those who disagree with me politically. I however am careful to review the evidence first. All of my opinions are well-supported.
Re:TFS (Score:5, Funny)
>>What information do you think these Harris-supporters lack?
Decades of indoctrination from fox news?
Re: TFS (Score:2)
Basically like every idiot here who thinks they can run Tesla and SpaceX better than Elon.
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Basically like every idiot here who thinks they can run Tesla and SpaceX better than Elon.
You left out Twitter -- uh, I mean X. How is that one working out?
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Basically like every idiot here who thinks they can run Tesla and SpaceX better than Elon.
You left out Twitter -- uh, I mean X. How is that one working out?
X in doing fine IMHO. Of course, there is a smear campaign going on against X from the dems dictatorship but it should settle down once they are gone. Even the FAA wants to revoke SpaceX launch rights because they say Musk is campaigning with the wrong presidential candidate. Is there any limit to silliness?
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How did this get modded up? Anyway...
X in doing fine IMHO.
Oh really? [inc.com]
Of course, there is a smear campaign going on against X
Evidence please?
from the dems dictatorship
Which does not exist.
but it should settle down once they are gone.
"They" (the "dems") are not going anywhere, and once again, they're not a dictatorship. (The other guy wants to be a dictator, though. He said so.)
Even the FAA wants to revoke SpaceX launch rights because they say Musk is campaigning with the wrong presidential candidate.
Again, evidence please?
Is there any limit to silliness?
Not to yours, apparently.
Re: TFS (Score:2)
I don't use it or pay any particular attention to it, but a few things I can think of:
1) He's not the CEO, unlike Tesla and SpaceX
2) Apparently it was already on financially shaky ground before he even touched it
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Musk does not run SpaceX and his involvement in running Tesla may not be a good thing. After Twitter, his lack of skill should be pretty obvious.
Re: TFS (Score:2)
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Not quite.
People that think they are smart and know everything, are generally stupid. On the other hand, people that think they are smart, but that are aware of all the things they do not know and all the areas where they cannot form a competent opinion, are smart.
As usual, things are more complicated.
True (Score:2)
Just look at how many people think that LLMs are going to reach the next level and make decisions for them, regardless of actual data at hand.
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Note that LLMs make decisions regardless of actual data at hand.
Re: True (Score:3)
I admire the confidence and LLM has. It has the sort of self assuredness that sends people up the corporate ladder. They will go far in management.
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Just look at how many people think that LLMs are going to reach the next level and make decisions for them, regardless of actual data at hand.
I'm going to test your theory by asking ChatGPT what I should have for lunch. It suggested a hamburger. Thing is, I'm actually craving chicken. So, while it can make decisions, it still can't read minds.
Re: True (Score:2)
If you die of food poisoning tomorrow we'll see that ChatGPT was actually right.
Well, of course. (Score:4, Interesting)
If you're a free will denying nut job, like I am, you think that the guy sitting on the couch in the theatre of the mind is merely "informed" of the result, and the great machine that retroactively justifies everything can be heard underneath the floorboards, constantly cranking away, building the illusion of logical solidity around the vapor that is emotional reaction.
Re: Well, of course. (Score:1)
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I have no choice but to deny it. That's the point, :D
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Although there are religious derivatives that side with your thinking, free will does exist. In any given moment, there are certainly trajectories based on past experience, the likely outcomes.
And people prove them wrong all of the time, and the universe is on their side on a macro scale. It's all physics, ultimately. Some can marginally predict outcomes using physics but much is unknown in physics, dimensions, and what interactions among the manifestation of inter-dimensional dynamics can be even understoo
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I think I disagree with every single element of your post. That's impressive. What's not just metaphysical word salad seems to be just... wrong. Right down to the misunderstanding of the predictable direction of local entropy. I am not a closed system.
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Right you are. Metaphysical world is just what you can't sense.
Actual extra dimensions are real and they exist. What influence do they have on what we sense as direction in this dimension? No one really knows; we just guess. Nonetheless, extra dimensions exist.
"Metaphysical" as a term connotes ouija boards and bending spoons. Yet extra dimensions exist, and we're occupying them in one form or another.
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Sounds like Dark City [wikipedia.org].
Maybe maybe not (Score:2, Troll)
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Are you assuming the people receive political information from factual sources?
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I do not know how your examination of my post led to this question. But, of course, if I'm right, it's not necessary for you to know either.
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At what point did you realize that I was not responding to you?
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Just now. But at least on this mobile device the nesting makes it impossible to tell. If you didn't reply to me, the parent to your post is invisible to me and you appear to be a direct descendant.
Even now I cannot tell.
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Ah. Your parent bubbled back up to visibility. My apologies. However, the nesting handling on this form factor is atrocious.
Re:Maybe maybe not (Score:4, Informative)
When a candiate whines they're being called out for their lies [msnbc.com], yes, yes I am.
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All of which is more or less necessary for a study, but which makes its relevance to thorny real-world issues like politics dubious at best.
Some people just love to labor under the delusion that political views are malleable if people are presented with the right sort of information. Maybe in other countries they are, but here in the USA we're doing that sports team fanaticism thing hardcore. Facts just don't matter anymore. My team is better, your team sucks, be sure to support my favorite team on election day!
Re: Maybe maybe not (Score:2)
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All of which is more or less necessary for a study, but which makes its relevance to thorny real-world issues like politics dubious at best.
Some people just love to labor under the delusion that political views are malleable if people are presented with the right sort of information. Maybe in other countries they are, but here in the USA we're doing that sports team fanaticism thing hardcore. Facts just don't matter anymore. My team is better, your team sucks, be sure to support my favorite team on election day!
And yet you only see one team saying things like "everyone on the other team should be hung"
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I suspect there's a bias towards action instilled in us from 20,000 years of running from leopards compelling us that an immediate decision better than standing still and having a long think on things. It's not great, but one piece of data that's rarely in evidence: how long can you deliberate before the leopard eats you. That's more of an art than a science IMO.
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20,000 years of running from leopards
I hear the growl in the tall grass. I didn't need any more information.
I suspect that the PP was modded Troll by those employed in the persuasion business. "You think you are ready to make a decision. But allow me a few minutes of your time to present you with additional facts."
"No. You sound like a leopard. That's all I need to know."
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marginal futility (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't even have to RTFA! (Score:2)
Just the title is enough to know everything!
Corollary to Dunning-Kruger (Score:1)
The first rule of making a decision or writing requirements is, "You are wrong."
Gather more information, gather information that goes against your bias, be less wrong.
See also: bike shed syndrome.
Didn't read (Score:2)
I already knew.
Self deluded (Score:1)
People who are 'educated' think they are too smart to be deceived or manipulated.
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Most other people do too
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The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts and the stupid ones are full of confidence. -- Charles Bukowski
I have all I need to make these decisions (Score:2)
Who says I strictly need to make correct or smart decisions. I am quite able to make decisions without the burder of being correct.
It's not so bad (Score:5, Insightful)
You're never going to have perfect knowledge of a situation - making judgement calls based on incomplete information is a requirement of continued existence.
The real skill comes in understanding your degree of ignorance and what risk that represents in a given situation. Which is tough, because that's likely one of your areas of ignorance.
The secondary skill is understanding you may not be making the optimal choice, and remaining open to new information and changing course as a result of new understanding that information may bring.
A case of "they needed a study for this?" (Score:2)
But it's good that someone checked.
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"They need a study for this?" assumes you already know everything.
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I'd say it's been studied and confirmed a hundred times before.
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from Captain Obvious University.
Translation: (Score:1)
"Humans are lazy"
I long since learned I don't know everything (Score:4, Insightful)
Buddy of mine got a chance at a "promotion". Same pay, but he was told it would come with longer hours and he'd have to come in on his days off for meetings. He also got told that the company probably wouldn't hire for the position anyway, they'd just hire another line worker which would make my buddy's job easier.
Naturally he turned it down.
Well, turns out they did hire someone, who is a lazy boob making my buddies life harder. And there was no extra hours worked and quiet a bit more pay.
Basically everything he was told is a lie.
Nevermind that at any moment the owner of the companies we work for could be planning to screw us all over and we don't find out until the last minute.
You *never* have enough information to make informed decisions because there's always someone holding back to get leverage over you. But like this article says, we act like we're in control.
Trust the system. Trust the system. No need for change. No need for transparency. You're so amazing you can do it all on your own. Trust the system.
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There are two situations under which humans make poor choices with higher frequency
1. Under the influence of fear
2. Under time constraints
First determine if there is an actual, time sensitive threat to your well-being, best case you have trained tirelessly and your Mushin response [wikipedia.org] is adequate, or just jump and scream. Either works in a fix
Next, having determined there is no immediate threat, recite the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear [goodreads.com] in order to reinforce the logic lessons your received from Thufir Hawat [fandom.com]
H
Come on (Score:1)
Politian's have been exploiting this for years.