SpaceX Plans To Send Five Uncrewed Starships To Mars in Two Years (reuters.com) 60
SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, CEO Elon Musk said on Sunday. From a report: Earlier this month, Musk had said that the first Starships to Mars would launch in two years "when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens."
The CEO on Sunday said that the first crewed mission timeline will depend upon the success of the uncrewed flights. If the uncrewed missions land safely, crewed missions will be launched in four years. However, in case of challenges, crewed missions will be postponed by another two years, Musk said.
The CEO on Sunday said that the first crewed mission timeline will depend upon the success of the uncrewed flights. If the uncrewed missions land safely, crewed missions will be launched in four years. However, in case of challenges, crewed missions will be postponed by another two years, Musk said.
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cybertrucks?
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Musk's original plan was to send automated greenhouses, Kimbal Musk currently heads up a hydroponics farming company called SquareRoots
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Do you genuinely think he is going to send FIVE rockets to Mars before he can send ONE rocket to the moon?
Probably not. It is likely a Starship rocket will go to or around the moon before this. I'm not sure why you would think otherwise. But note that with aerobraking, Mars has only a slightly larger delta-V than that to the moon if a ballistic capture orbit is used. The numbers are worse for Hohmann transfer orbits but not by that much.
Re: Special Relativity -- Elon style (Score:2)
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The moon seems like it could be orbited much sooner than 2 years given the recent cadence of his Starship progress
This seems likely to me. If the next couple of test flights go well and orbital refueling is demonstrated by early next year, there's no reason SpaceX won't try sending a Starship to lunar orbit (if not the lunar surface) sometime in 2025. This has been the plan under the Starship HLS component of the Artemis program for some time now.
Re: Special Relativity -- Elon style (Score:2)
How many years overdue is full self driving? Actual full self driving would be level 5, Tesla does a bad job of level 3 with fatalities that could be solved by adding LIDAR.
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Musk acts like a micro manager, but isn't one. Like all CEOs. And like all CEOs you have to remain a bit skeptical about what they say at all times. The difference here is that Musk can't keep from talking, and while also owning a social media company the ability to talk endlessly is unchecked.
SpaceX succeeds best when they push back against their boss and do things the right way. After all, the boss is not a rocket scientist, not even an engineer, despite the misleading title of "chief engineer", and o
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In this case, I believe their timeline is accurate -- Starship is almost ready and their already showing the ability to pump out Starship rockets faster than the FAA can move a sheet of paper from one desk to another. Assuming the FAA doesn't block them for purely political reasons, 2 years is very doable.
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Yuuup.
This is a good thing, though.
People are realizing that establishing property rights on Mars now will forever rule out terraforming.
For instance pushing the asterioid belt into Mars over a few centuries would help with mass and heat.
Can't do that if it's populated.
We're better off mining the Taurids into a massive space station at a Lagrange Point, and remove the source of Tunguska-type impactors.
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It is helpful to recall that in 2016 he predicted an unmanned Mars mission in 2018 [time.com] and a Mars colony by 2024 [dw.com]; and that in 2018 he predicted a Mars base by 2028 [space.com].
Musk has always over-promised on his Mars obsession, so we may reasonably expect him to miss the 2026 window for even a Mars fly-by, but maybe in the 2028 window.
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Uh, he did reach orbital velocity in flight 3 and flight 4. Flight 5 -- the FAA is blocking him because they think turtles are traumatized by rocket noise. What happens to turtles during thunderstorms? I wonder. How can it take them 3 months to do a phony environmental review each time he launches a Starship? Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
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What kool-aid? The rockets are orbit capable and have proved that. Just because you say it isn't doesn't make it so. Will be funny when they does demo fully re-usable reach Mars, we'll be able to say a lot of people said it was impossible. You'll be an example of someone who said Starship won't work. Congrats.
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...The Starship went around 7.2 km/s. Stable low earth orbit is around 7.8 km/s, and if one moves slightly higher up, then the orbital velocity is 7.12 km/s, which is lower than that of Starship.
If you go even higher up, the orbital velocity is even less. Go up to 10000 km, and orbital velocity is 5 km/s. Can we claim that any rocket achieving 5 km/s is orbital?
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Fixed that for ya
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You can't even get them to Earth orbit.
Given today's news of as many as five un-crewed missions to Mars, there is still no mention of any plan or effort to return any of the vehicles, (and presumably humans in the future), back to Earth. If that's not the goal, why even bother with the monumental costs and risks of sending people to Mars, instead of all the quality instruments we're already so successful with for actually accomplishing science stuff, (and over extremely lengthy durations)?
Hopefully there's a payload (Score:3)
Rather than just testing consistent landing ability, sending a fuel generator, some supplies, a rover, etc. would be nice to see. Make the rover remote deployable and operable and use it to prep some nicer landing space for the crewed mission.
And one of those rockets should launch again, at least to Mars orbit.
Re:Hopefully there's a payload (Score:4, Insightful)
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Solar's pretty weak on Mars... But they're as likely to be cleaned by a breeze as cover with dust by one, so I think it would be interesting to send up some solar tarps and peg them down to the ground. Or just move rocks onto the corners. It would save a lot of mass on mounting hardware, and if you don't care so much about the mass, think of the volume. Either way you get more room to send more stuff.
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Is it reasonable to just have a "robot dusting arm" with a brush on it? "Oh no, the panels are covered with--never mind, I pushed the button and they're clean again now."
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Standard solar panels are more efficient now.
The high tech panels used on the rovers - or any other space technology - are the same.
There is not much room in approvement in them.
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Better to have a rover there first, with actual science being done, than prematurely sending people who have no way to get home and no way to stay there long term. Ie, do something useful first instead of showing off.
Re:Hopefully there's a payload (Score:5, Interesting)
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That's a lot of posting about what they could send, nothing definite about what they will send. If you're up on the latest and can provide links that are more comprehensive than the article linked to this discussion, it would be genuinely appreciated.
I'm no fan of Musk, but I am a fan of space exploration and won't deny SpaceX has pushed things forward quite a bit.
How quickly will this get borked? (Score:3)
IIRC, in the documentary "Good night, Oppy", JPL had a hell of a time making sure that the thing worked while also being beyond squeaky clean. Some people are very concerned about "contaminating" Mars with Earth microorganisms. I'm guessing that elements of the government are going to try to bork SpaceX's efforts for political reasons while claiming that it's for biological reasons.
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The same government that gave SpaceX a $2.89B contract (a sole contract at the dismay of the other bidders at the time) for Starship/HLS which is all but an official endorsement of the program.
Do you not think contamination is a concern that should be addressed if they are going to attempt to land the ships? SpaceX already knows this is a requirement, I don't think the thousands of engineers who are working on this are so cynical or stupid to disregard it as you think they are.
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Only a very tiny chance that politics are involved here, more it's about Musk with an outsized ego unwilling to cooperate with others. But there are conspiracy theories, and Musk fans, and Musk fans with conspiracy theories...
No creamy nougat center, neither. (Score:2)
Captain Musk (Score:1)
I think the chances of success would be so much higher if Musk would captain the first ship they send to Mars.
Musk seeks publicity (Score:3)
However, since he has become more involved in politics, his public persona has become more provocative and extreme. He's said that rich tech bros like himself should have more votes the regular people, and he supports more radical and violent content on X/Twitter.
When he is challenged he engages in retaliation. He's suing the FAA over regulations, which is not very useful most of the time. And he's suing advertisers who are leaving X/Twitter because they don't want to be associated with the more radical content. That's just stupid. He can't win under any circumstances, and it alienates the remaining advertisers even more.
He's becoming more erratic. It's not good a good sign for him, and it's obviously bad for his business empire.
Re: Musk seeks publicity (Score:2)
"sending his personal Tesla to orbit the solar system"
It probably failed expensively and this was his way of hiding the evidence
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He's becoming more erratic. It's not good a good sign for him, and it's obviously bad for his business empire.
Rich guy syndrome. Surround one's self only with yes-men, nobody working for you dares to criticize because their job might end. And all those yes-men saying "that's brilliant, m'lord!" makes one start to believe it. Tack onto that a lot of fanboys posting gushingly on social media amplifies this. Eventually they end up completely removed from reality and common sense.
Musk haters (Score:4, Insightful)
Criticize all you want but SpaceX has done more for the space industry in its short existence than anyone could have imagined. Yes, Musk's timelines are rarely correct, but SpaceX does come through. I'm so happy I'll be alive to see people on Mars some day ... courtesy of SpaceX. Stop the hate and enjoy the show people, it's a great time to be alive.
Re: Musk haters (Score:2)
SpaceX going to Mars affects my life positively about as much as the DOW going up. Neither one trickles down to me.
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Humans (the tribe you belong to) are going to Mars. How does that not excite you? Just think, some day going to Mars will be as commonplace as taking a trip to another country. It will happen, sadly though after my life time. However, the moon may be somewhat colonized before I pass. I look forward to pointing my 90mm Meade at the Moon and seeing the lights from the settlements there. Amazing times!
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Building a proper Mars colony would let us here on Earth upgrade from racism to planetism.
Re: Musk haters (Score:2)
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Criticize all you want but SpaceX has done more for the space industry in its short existence than anyone could have imagined. Yes, Musk's timelines are rarely correct, but SpaceX does come through. I'm so happy I'll be alive to see people on Mars some day ... courtesy of SpaceX. Stop the hate and enjoy the show people, it's a great time to be alive.
The best thing to happen to SpaceX was Musk getting distracted by Tesla.
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SpaceX currently is just NASA without the interference, and with the money to actually do what they want to do ...
They have basically built what NASA should have been doing, but were prevented, by lack of funds and government interference
They currently are not ahead of what NASA could currently do if the breaks were taken off, but are starting to get near ...
That makes sense (Score:1)
But it's Elon .. (Score:3)
So expect it sometime in the next 10-15 years like real rocket scientists predict
Every single time based prediction of his has been delayed .... until it's when everyone else said they would probably do it ... or later ...
5 Starships returning from Mars? (Score:2)
This I wanna see! Maybe a simultaneous landing for show?