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Space

Russia's Space Program Is In Big Trouble (wired.com) 126

schwit1 writes:

Crippled by war and sanctions, Russia now faces evidence that its already-struggling space program is falling apart. In the past three months alone, Roscosmos has scrambled to resolve two alarming incidents. First, one of its formerly dependable Soyuz spacecraft sprang a coolant leak. Then the same thing happened on one of its Progress cargo ships. The civil space program's Soviet predecessor launched the first person into orbit, but with the International Space Station (ISS) nearing the end of its life, Russia's space agency is staring into the abyss.

"What we're seeing is the continuing demise of the Russian civil space program," says Bruce McClintock, a former defense attache at the US embassy in Moscow and current head of the Space Enterprise Initiative of the Rand Corporation, a nonprofit research organization. Around 10 years ago, Russian leaders chose to prioritize the country's military space program -- which focuses on satellite and anti-satellite technologies -- over its civilian one, McClintock says, and it shows.

Russia's space fleet is largely designed to be expendable. The history of its series of Soyuz rockets and crew capsules (they both have the same name) dates back to the Soviet era, though they've gone through upgrades since. Its Progress cargo vessels also launch atop Soyuz rockets. The cargo ships, crewed ships, and rockets are all single-use spacecraft. Anatoly Zak, creator and publisher of the independent publication RussianSpaceWeb, estimates that Roscosmos launches about two Soyuz vehicles per year, takes about 1.5 to 2 years to build each one, and doesn't keep a substantial standing fleet.

While Roscosmos officials did not respond to interview requests, the agency has been public about its recent technical issues.

Plus this, which failed to make headlines here: "For crewed launches, Russia has long depended on its Baikonur spaceport in neighboring Kazakhstan. But the nation has charged costly annual fees, and in March Kazakhstan seized Russian spaceport assets, reportedly due to Roscosmos' debt."


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Russia's Space Program Is In Big Trouble

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  • ooofff (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @04:24PM (#63388747)

    blyat

  • by Anonymous Coward

    If they bail, there's always the Peoples Republic of China to take up the slack.

  • Well... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by garyisabusyguy ( 732330 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @04:36PM (#63388759)

    they could always approach SpaceX and ask for them to send a few extra engines there way, it's not like they laughed in Musk's face when he asked the same of them

    Oh, right

    Or maybe they could reach out to Ukraine for expertise since they used to house one of the Soviet Union's better space engineering groups

    Oh, yeah that's not going to work

    Or, maybe they could dig deep and get more rocket scientists entering their educational system, because it's not like people are fleeing russia in fear of becoming canon fodder

    Hmmm, that's not gonna work either

    I suppose the only chance is for sanity to take over and an entire country stop playing the stupid game that Putin has set them on

    LOL, okay too bad, USSR used to have top notch rocket scientists, shame to see it go this way

    • > USSR used to have top notch rocket scientists, shame to see it go this way

      Russian leaders chose to prioritize the country's military space program -- which focuses on satellite and anti-satellite technologies -- over its civilian one

    • LOL, okay too bad, USSR used to have top notch rocket scientists, shame to see it go this way

      Putting the LOL's aside for a moment it IS a shame, considering they were the first country in 1961 to send it, when it comes to space exploration.

      An entire planet, often forgets that fact.

      • Re:Well... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by AJWM ( 19027 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @04:49PM (#63388793) Homepage

        The planet hasn't forgotten it, but 60-plus years down the line, it is, without continued follow-on, irrelevant.

        As the saying goes, "yeah, but what have you done for me lately?"

        • Re:Well... (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Bu11etmagnet ( 1071376 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @05:47PM (#63388951)

          > "yeah, but what have you done for me lately?"

          What have the Romans ever done for us? *

          * apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health

        • The planet hasn't forgotten it, ...

          But it has contused, conflated, Russia with the USSR. Russia may have been politically dominant but that is something quite different from being the source of the engineering and scientific talent. One of the reasons Russia is failing is that vital aerospace industry and talent is in Ukraine and former satellite states.

        • by Reziac ( 43301 ) *

          And America last went to the moon... when??

      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by taustin ( 171655 )

        The reason the USSR got the first satellite in orbit before the US was the Eisenhower made a deliberate choice to let them, for political reasons. The US could have beaten them to it, but only using a military rocket, which would have been a political coup for them. Plus, he wanted them to establish that things in orbit over a foreign country didn't violate that country's airspace - so they couldn't complain when our satellites overflew them.

        (Sadly, once they did manage an orbital launch using Big Dumb Rock

        • Re:Well... (Score:4, Insightful)

          by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @05:22PM (#63388881) Journal

          The technological issues surrounding reusable rockets is a tough problem to reliably solve even now, and if the US was going to keep to Kennedy's commitment to land a man on the Moon by the end of the decade, it was going to be done was with big ass rockets. Say what you will about the Saturn vehicles, they were wonders of technology for the 1960s and did indeed get the job done.

          Sometimes perfection is the enemy of the good.

          • by taustin ( 171655 )

            Say what you will about the Saturn vehicles, they were wonders of technology for the 1960s and did indeed get the job done.

            They certainly were. But they weren't as useful as a shuttle would have been on any level other the political grandstanding. (Which we should not ignore the value of, in the late 60s.)

            • FYI, the shuttle was supposed to be flying missions weekly to produce equivalent mass to orbit as sticking with SaturnV launchers

              Now, 50 years later, we are back to launching big rockets, the news ones are smart enough to land

              Nobody is even considering creating anything like the shuttle for moving material to orbit, that certainly does not speak well for the concept

              • by taustin ( 171655 )

                The shuttle was also originally supposed to have jet engines for powered landings.

                The shuttle was the best idea for the technology of the day, within the budget limitations. Now, not so much.

                Times change, technology changes, best ideas change.

              • Nobody is even considering creating anything like the shuttle for moving material to orbit, that certainly does not speak well for the concept

                Sierra Nevada Corporation is still busily building Dream Chaser. It's intended as a crew transporter and not so much cargo, but it is Shuttle-shaped.

      • An entire planet, often forgets that fact.

        Oh, I don't know. I think it's more that an entire planet often has better things to think about than that bit of irrelevant trivia.

        Who's got the world record for most mushrooms stuffed up their nose? Doesn't matter. What's the name of the person who invented the wheel? Doesn't matter.

        Sure, we revere ground-breakers for a while but eventually the who stops mattering. That people who are now dead happened to have lived in the same general geographic region did a thing first is... trivia.

      • Yeah and the people most responsible for all that innovation were in what country again?
        (USSR is not a country...)

        • by drnb ( 2434720 )

          Yeah and the people most responsible for all that innovation were in what country again? (USSR is not a country...)

          It was when there was a pioneering space program.

      • ... considering they were the first country in 1961 ...

        What country? Not Russia. The USSR was a conglomerate of many countries, many satellite states. Russia may have dominated politically but scientific and engineering talent came from many countries other than Russia. Similar story for that war winning Red Army, troops coming from many countries other than Russia.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          So which country is it that put a man on the moon? The United States is a conglomeration of many states.

          The USSR was a country. You're being silly, presumably for some weird political reason known only to yourself.

          • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @11:18PM (#63389657)

            So which country is it that put a man on the moon? The United States is a conglomeration of many states. The USSR was a country. You're being silly, presumably for some weird political reason known only to yourself.

            Actually my point is that trying to portray Russia as the first to launch an artificial satellite, the first to put a man into space, is like trying to portray Florida as the first to put a man on the moon.

            You do realize that those "other countries" that I am referring to in the USSR context are Ukraine, Georgia, etc. For example lets look at some of the heads of the various design bureaus of the Soviet space program:
            Chief Designer of the Soviet space program, Sergei Korolev, Ukranian.
            Head of Central Directorate of the Space Forces, Kerim Kerimov, Azerbaijani
            Chairman of the Satellite Committee at the Academy of Science, Mstislav Keldysh, Latvian.
            Chief Designer of OKB 456 (rocket engines), Valentin Glushko, , Ukranian.
            Founder of of OKB-1 (space systems), Mikhail Reshetnev, Ukranian.

            • If you go back to an early post in this thread the reference was to USSR as a country

              LOL, okay too bad, USSR used to have top notch rocket scientists, shame to see it go this way

              Putting the LOL's aside for a moment it IS a shame, considering they were the first country in 1961 to send it, when it comes to space exploration.

              An entire planet, often forgets that fact.

              I really do not get what you are going on about

              If you are quibbling over whether or not the USSR was a country, please refer to Wikipedia:
              The Soviet Union, officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics(USSR), was a transcontinental country spanning most of northern Eurasia that existed from 30 December 1922 to 26 December 1991. [wikipedia.org]

              • by drnb ( 2434720 )

                I really do not get what you are going on about

                The erroneous conflation of the soviet space program with the Russian space program. Russia was always nothing more than one contributor to the soviet space program. Similar story with the Red Army, and conflation there too is erroneous.

            • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

              Okay, that's reasonable. It sounded like something about the USSR being a "union" so it's not a country.

              When the USSR broke up all those countries didn't suddenly slam down iron curtains between themselves. Well, except maybe Latvia... they really hate Russians. Up until 2015 the Ukrainian and Russian space programs worked together fairly closely.

              Russia's real problem is that their country fell apart, the bits that were left got sold off to oligarchs, and today they've got the GDP of Spain, the population o

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by quonset ( 4839537 )

      they could always approach SpaceX and ask for them to send a few extra engines there way, it's not like they laughed in Musk's face when he asked the same of them

      Considering Musk is peddling Russian lies about Ukraine [rollingstone.com], even praising what the Russian state propaganda outlets are saying [businessinsider.com], this may work.

    • Or they could stop sinking all their money into an endless war. *sigh* Yeah, I'm not holding my breath.
    • by drnb ( 2434720 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @07:53PM (#63389279)

      okay too bad, USSR used to have top notch rocket scientists, shame to see it go this way

      The USSR was not just Russians, many of those scientists and engineers were Ukrainian, Georgian, etc. People of satellite states.

      Similar story for the Red Army, neither was it just Russians, many soldiers were from satellite states.

      Today we are seeing Russia when not propped up by their "neighbors".

      • Russia _is_ the last man standing in regards to post Soviet space exploration and the subject of the story we are all responding to

        Ukraine has a space program, but has not launched anything for at least 5 years, largely due to Russian aggression

        All in all it _is_ a shame to see it go this way

        • by drnb ( 2434720 )

          Russia _is_ the last man standing in regards to post Soviet space exploration ...

          Wrong. It was always a multi-state effort, not a purely Russian thing. The only hope Russia had at a space program was to maintain good friendly relations with its neighbors so the old multi-state effort could continue. Obviously it chose otherwise.

    • What about China? They wanting to be friends to each other now.

  • So how long until Russia sells their rocket technology to North Korea and Iran to finance their space program and military endeavors?
    • or sells nuke technology to anyone willing to buy?

      I hear those are pretty high price tag items and don't really see Russia caring about world opinion or signed treaties.

      They could always actually use that knowledge to help the world energy crisis and get rich with their nuclear reactor technology. Drive jet engine development forward, nuclear reactor designs- they have tons of experience with nuclear reactors on ships, subs, etc- world is moving towards a smaller modular design preference. No doubt a lot

  • I'll survive (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @04:43PM (#63388773)

    If Russia loses everything it built because it dedicates itself to invading free nations... good.

  • by Eunomion ( 8640039 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @04:52PM (#63388797)
    Little surprise that it's the one Soviet legacy that Putin habitually fucks up, while plowing new depths in murder and mayhem.
  • by presearch ( 214913 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @05:04PM (#63388819)

    Always eject the warp core.

    • That's going on my "All I need to know about life I learned from Star Trek" poster....
      • That's going on my "All I need to know about life I learned from Star Trek" poster....

        Let’s see:

        Become a swashbuckling captain, speak in a..unique..cadence, and you get all the hot women around? Always take a few people in red shirts with you whenever you go someplace new?

        Yea, all you need to know is in ST:TOS

        • If a computer is box shaped, destroy it If a computer is man shaped, punch it If a computer is woman shaped, seduce it
  • by DesScorp ( 410532 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @05:07PM (#63388825) Journal

    I say probably, because I can't actually review the article, because once again, Slashdot editors have linked to a fucking paywall article .

    It's PROBABLY clickbait, because despite the alarming-sounding title, other stories have noted that Russia has been slowing moving their space operations to their East (their new Vostochny Cosmodrome [wikipedia.org]) for some time now, building new launch infrastructure to replace Baikonur, which they knew they'd have to eventually abandon for the sheer fact that it's in Kazakhstan. The Russians have been operating from Vostochny since 2016. Other articles have also noted that Kazakhstan chose to move on the facilities now in an attempt to wring more money out of the Russians. The Russians knew this was eventually coming. Thus, the new eastern launch facilities. It certainly goes beyond "minor inconvenience", but "big trouble"? "Falling apart"? No.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @05:17PM (#63388861)
    no matter their promises to get the trains running on time. Sooner or later they get old, lose the plot, and do something crazy like invade a country without the resources to finish the invasion much less do an occupation.

    The US is flirting with dictatorship. We've got several candidates for president who are making it clear they're not going to leave office unless they're forced to, and one of them has enough military background that, were he to be elected, he will likely have the army on his side.

    Remember all this when it's time to vote in a few years. I know, I know, short memories, but this is worth putting on your calendar.
    • Re: (Score:1, Troll)

      by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

      It's a strange fictional world you live in, friend, between those two ears.

      • by Anonymous Coward

        Where is he wrong? Oh right, he isn't. That's why you provided zero reasons behind your claims.

  • Kazakhstan was actually the last country to leave the USSR. Russia left *before* they did. That means that for a very brief period, Kazakhstan was actually the entire USSR and could have conceivably decided to remain as such, although it was obviously a tainted brand. It was one of those odd administrative curiosities. In a similar vein though of far less consequence, Washington was once a city within the District of Columbia along with Georgetown and a few other places. Even in a city full of excess g

  • Yeah... those stupid Russians! Ha! They even blew up a school teacher! can you imagine that?

    Oh... wait!, that was in the U.S.A. (Challenger)

    Never mind... those stupid Russians...
    • by Anonymous Coward

      Yeah... those stupid Russians! Ha! They even blew up a school teacher! can you imagine that? Oh... wait!, that was in the U.S.A. (Challenger) Never mind... those stupid Russians...

      Russians are far superior.
      They blow up actual schools.

  • This is little different than the status of the US space efforts. We've eclipsed "civilian" spending for military (and it's been a lot longer than 10 years).

    I also take issue with the article's tone... Russia is hardly "crippled by war and sanctions" right now. Nobody can objectively look at the status of things in Russia and say they're all that much worse than they were in, say, 2019.

    https://fortune.com/2023/03/13/russia-economy-held-up-tightening-oil-sanctions-more-problems-putin/

  • They've blown their wad on the stupid invasion, not much left for non-critical programs. That nation is quite vulnerable right now because they spent much their stockpile such that they couldn't defend a lasting attack from a medium-sized country. However, I imagine they'd use the Red Button if that happened, as they'd arguably be justified.

  • Who cares (Score:4, Insightful)

    by RemindMeLater ( 7146661 ) on Tuesday March 21, 2023 @07:55PM (#63389283)
    This is just the leading edge of Russia's rapid and guaranteed slide into irrelevancy. The limping muppet that is Putler decided to stake his nation's destiny on his grand ambitions to "gather lands" and restore some sort of bullshit empire. Well, oops, it failed miserably and he's likely going to lose Crimea. They have lost their intelligentsia who fled the country (grand limping muppet says it's a necessary purge of unbelievers), they are sanctioned by their most valuable trading partners, they are pariahs in the western world. I honestly don't care. The grand irony is Russia doesn't need an army. Nobody wants to invade a rotting kleptocracy of depopulating alcoholics.
  • After the press releases from the Putin and Xi summit, it seems like Russia is becoming a colony of China, where all their trade goes through Belt and Road, and winding up a super-sized version of North Korea with its head up its derriere, other than saber rattling just to keep the West annoyed.

    Long term, it won't be great for Russia. I would expect a lot of unmarked "camps" to be set up, where they have an odd ash odor, similar to certain other areas where China is. Putin's legacy will be having Russia e

  • '"What we're seeing is the continuing demise of the Russian civil space program," says Bruce McClintock, a former defense attache at the US embassy in Moscow and current head of the Space Enterprise Initiative of the Rand Corporation...'

  • Maybe they can just build a giant trampoline...

  • After all these decades, I'm amused we're still seeing the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union, when Kazakstan was just another state in the USSR, and not a separate nation-state.

    Of course not all of it is fun and games; Kaliningrad (technically part of Russia but geographically separated from Russia) contains one of Russia's most important naval bases--and yet is separated from Russia by Poland and Lithuania via the Suwalki pass. [time.com] And if Ukraine all goes pear-shaped for Russia, this may be one of a c

  • Russia's previously announced plans [slashdot.org] to build their own orbiting platform went so far as to grant it a name: "ROSS". It is looking more and more like ROSS will never see the light of day, let alone a launchpad.

    Color me not shocked [slashdot.org].

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