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Medicine United States

US Life Expectancy Falls For 2nd Year In a Row 209

Despite the availability of life-saving COVID-19 vaccines, so many people died in the second year of the pandemic in the U.S. that the nation's life expectancy dropped for a second year in a row last year, according to a new analysis. NPR reports: The analysis of provisional government statistics found U.S. life expectancy fell by just under a half a year in 2021, adding to a dramatic plummet in life expectancy that occurred in 2020. Public health experts had hoped the vaccines would prevent another drop the following year. "The finding that instead we had a horrible loss of life in 2021 that actually drove the life expectancy even lower than it was in 2020 is very disturbing," says Dr. Steven Woolf, a professor of population health and health equity at Virginia Commonwealth University, who help conduct the analysis. "It speaks to an extensive loss of life during 2021."

Many of the deaths occurred in people in the prime of their lives, Woolf says, and drove the overall U.S. life expectancy to fall to 76.6 years -- the lowest in at least 25 years. "The motivation for this study was to determine whether the horrible drop in life expectancy that we documented in 2020 resolved or rebounded in 2021 or whether there was a continued decline. Unfortunately, we did not find good news," Woolf told NPR in an interview.
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US Life Expectancy Falls For 2nd Year In a Row

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  • At least we were warned.
  • by terraformer ( 617565 ) <tpb@pervici.com> on Thursday April 07, 2022 @09:23PM (#62427522) Journal

    Not a single thing in that article explicitly states these deaths are COVID. Lots of vague references, but nothing explicit. Why? Could it be that the picture is more complicated? That drug deaths are off the charts?

    • Could it be that the picture is more complicated? That drug deaths are off the charts?

      Worse, surviving people could start to want a single payer system like the rest of the developed world.

      • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @10:26PM (#62427632)

        Worse, surviving people could start to want a single payer system like the rest of the developed world.

        That will never happen. Those other countries built their single-payer systems from nothing. The American healthcare industry is a monstrosity that swallows up 20% of our GDP. It is the single most powerful special interest that has ever existed in the history of the world. It isn't going away, and any government-run system will be another layer.

        America already has THREE "single-payer" healthcare systems: Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA. Together, they provide healthcare to 30% of the population and consume 9% of GDP. That is more than many other countries spend to cover 100% of their populations. So what does that say about the management efficiency of the American government?

        That we can just pass a law and suddenly have a healthcare system like Denmark is delusional.

        • by Cyberax ( 705495 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @11:06PM (#62427694)
          You forget that Medicare and to a large extent VA take care of the sickest people. This heavily skews the numbers.
        • by narcc ( 412956 )

          So what does that say about the management efficiency of the American government?

          Nothing, to competent people who know that our private for-profit "healthcare" system is the real problem.

          • Absolutely. For reference, I turn 65 this month and for the last half year I've been absolutely bombarded with mail and phone calls about enrolling in Medicare and other coverage. There must be some serious profit involved for insurance companies to blanket "older" folks with this many unsolicited adverts.
        • by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @11:10PM (#62427700)

          We can easily have a public option though, and it would fix a lot of problems. It's the component of the ACA that got cut but is actually the key to making it actually sorta work.

          I think if you did that and eliminated or greatly disincentivized employer insurance. Individual marketplace competition combined with a universal option to act as a stabilizer.

          And you actually do it pretty quickly in the existing market.

        • by edwdig ( 47888 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @11:10PM (#62427702)

          America already has THREE "single-payer" healthcare systems: Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA. Together, they provide healthcare to 30% of the population and consume 9% of GDP. That is more than many other countries spend to cover 100% of their populations. So what does that say about the management efficiency of the American government?

          That we can just pass a law and suddenly have a healthcare system like Denmark is delusional.

          Those three programs cover the segments of the population with the most expensive healthcare needs. We cover them with single payer systems because they're not at all viable under a private insurance model.

          Medicare covers old people. They're always going to be the most expensive to take care of.

          Medicaid is poor people. Spend more on other social programs to prevent people from falling into this category, and their health will improve too. Other countries keep these costs down with better social safety nets.

          VA is ex-military. We spend a ton here because we keep a far larger military than anyone else does. Taking care of soldiers after war is going to be expensive. They're going to have more and nastier health issues than the average person.

          We make a lot of bad decisions and tend to follow them up by making things worse. Changing one piece of the puzzle isn't going to get us the same efficiency as other countries, but eliminating one of our bigger mistakes will certainly help a lot.

        • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday April 08, 2022 @06:59AM (#62428186)

          That we can just pass a law and suddenly have a healthcare system like Denmark is delusional.

          No it's not. That's absolutely how it would work. The issue here is you never get that law passed. Look at Obama care. I find it hilarious that it has that name given how it looks nothing like what the Obama administration came up with in the first revision. It would be more accurately called "Republicans-say-no care" that way the name at least reflects the legislative process that resulted in the law.

          Though you are right as well. Passing the law is only step one, you'd need to survive a few supreme court challenges by the vested interests. But if they pass then you could have a healthcare system like Denmark, which is nothing more than a healthcare system which follows a set legal framework.

          • I find it hilarious that it has that name given how it looks nothing like what the Obama administration came up with in the first revision.

            Particularly since the first revision should actually have been called Romneycare.

        • by skam240 ( 789197 )

          You go out of your way to illustrate how broken our system is and then claim it cant be changed because the problem is big.

          No thanks, big problems are the ones most worth solving.

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by khchung ( 462899 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @09:53PM (#62427582) Journal

      Not a single thing in that article explicitly states these deaths are COVID. Lots of vague references, but nothing explicit. Why? Could it be that the picture is more complicated? That drug deaths are off the charts?

      How much more explicit do you need than 1 MILLION deaths [worldometers.info] in the last 2 years?

      Look at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fasta... [cdc.gov] and tell me where did "drug death" rank in the list? Hint: it is not even there (yeah, really "off" the charts, LOL). While Covid is ranked 3rd cause of death after heart disease and cancer.

      How much in denial do one needs to be to deny that a brand new cause of death popping up into 3rd most common cause was not the major contributor to lowering of life expectancy?

    • Not a single thing in that article explicitly states these deaths are COVID

      Yep. It's aliens. That's the only logical explanation. I mean if we discount pandemic or disease related issue which has been documented in every country which has so far experienced COVID, then the only thing left to consider is something that caused a huge government coverup.

      Aliens it is.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      You want the picture to be *more* complicated? Well, the number of excess deaths (i.e., more than statistically expected) in the US for 2020 was 470,000; the number of *COVID* deaths was only 352,000. Some of the 120,000 difference is probably COVID undercount -- e.g. there were huge numbers of "flu/pneumonia" (they're lumped together for mortality reporting) deaths reported after flu season should have ended that were probably COVID deaths. But some were likely collateral damage -- people who needed tr

  • by sound+vision ( 884283 ) on Thursday April 07, 2022 @10:16PM (#62427614) Journal

    It should be noted that life expectancy had already been on a downward trajectory for most of the 2010s.

    Yet again (although I don't like to make this comparison) it seems that Covid accelerated existing trends more than it started new ones.

    But perhaps the biggest one is yet to truly manifest. In 2019 I was getting the feeling the economy would probably tank in the next 5 or 6 years, seeming to be there was an everything-bubble. Looking at just stocks, they were already overvalued before the pandemic. They dipped down for a couple months and then promptly rebounded to an even bigger bubble - and they called it a "recovery". The real crash, the big one, still hasn't happened.

    I hear the finance/economist eggheads have now given it a date of 2023. Sounds about right from what I see here in the trenches. Marking this post for posterity so I can link back to it... Hello, future Slashdot! Greetings from the past.

    • by skam240 ( 789197 )

      Wow, you're predicting a looming recession when the world is dealing with left overs from Covid, major inflation issues for most countries, and a war along with sanctions wreaking havoc on the markets.

      Your prophetic powers are truly amazing! What's next? Days will get longer in the Northern Hemisphere as we move closer to Summer?

    • First, life expectancy went up from 2010 to 1014 (+2%), then went down from 2015-18 (-3%). Not a real decline.

      The stock market is a combination of psychology and fundamentals. Fundamentals tend to drive the main market direction - and stop falls.

      Psychology is all about what people think is going to happen. Every single bubble was about overly optimistic beliefs. Every single recovery from the drop is about fundamentals.

      Moreover, there has been not one stockmarket fall since the beginning of covid, but

  • Countries where the life expectancy went up in 2020 and 2021:

    83.29 83.48 83.65 South Korea
    82.96 83.20 83.33 Norway (credible range)
    81.43 81.55 81.58 Denmark (credible range)

    Where it went down both years:

    82.51 82.12 81.85 Israel
    81.16 80.77 80.67 Germany (credible range)
    78.86 76.99 76.60 United States

  • by petes_PoV ( 912422 ) on Friday April 08, 2022 @02:51AM (#62427930)
    ISTM the life expectancy statistics only account for the ages of people who are already dead. A drop of two years, caused by significant numbers of elderly dying of Covid, tells us nothing about the prospects of those people who did not die from the disease or its complications.
  • US ranked 46th (Score:4, Interesting)

    by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Friday April 08, 2022 @04:51AM (#62428044) Homepage

    It's worth pointing out that the US has serious problems: The US ranks 46th in the world for life expectancy [worldometers.info]. This is not due to Covid, which hit everywhere. Likely it is due to a combination of Obamacare (the worst of all possible health insurance systems) plus a seriously unhealthy lifestyle (widespread obesity).

    This is part of a long-term trend. [worldlifeexpectancy.com] In 1980, the US ranked 18th, in 1990 21st, in 2000 29th, in 2010 30th. Now, in 2022, 46th.

    • Obamacare is certainly no panacea compared to what's in place in almost any other country on earth, but it's still a godsend compared o the previous US system where you could and likely would be denied coverage for having ever been sick before, aka you had a pre-existing condition, in US insurance speak.

  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Friday April 08, 2022 @07:21AM (#62428240)

    Think of it as evolution in action.

  • "... so many people ... dramatic plummet ... a horrible loss ... actually drove the life expectancy even lower ... very disturbing ... extensive loss of life ... Many of the deaths occurred in people in the prime of their lives ... the horrible drop in life expectancy ... continued decline. Unfortunately, we did not find good news." The use of this kind of language just screams "I have an agenda", whether that agenda is for more money through eyeballs or generating FUD to drive political support to some en

  • "The analysis of provisional government statistics found U.S. life expectancy fell by just under a half a year in 2021". That's what I call a really short life. You don't even get enough time to fill it with some joy. [:)]

  • ....for those folks who view America as the root of everything bad in the world, this is a win!

Time is the most valuable thing a man can spend. -- Theophrastus

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