This Year's Flu Vaccine Was Basically Worthless (gizmodo.com) 101
This winter's flu vaccine was a particularly bad match for the most common influenza strain in circulation, a new analysis from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found. Gizmodo reports: Thankfully, the flu season was much milder than usual for the second year in a row, as ongoing covid-19 precautions likely blunted the spread of flu as well. The estimates come from the CDC's long-running surveillance program of people with suspected flu-like symptoms who visit various outpatient sites throughout the country. Overall, the odds of catching a case of confirmed flu were only slightly lower for vaccinated people, the researchers found. Against all flu strains detected at these sites, the vaccine was deemed to be 14% effective, as well as 16% effective at preventing cases of flu from A(H3N2) viruses, the predominant strain this winter. Numbers this low are far below the 50% threshold for a vaccine to be considered relatively useful, and they're not even high enough to reach statistical significance.
In the words of the researchers, who published their results in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the vaccine "did not reduce the risk for outpatient respiratory illness caused by influenza A(H3N2) viruses that have predominated so far this season." Flu vaccines, even in a good year, are far from perfect. The strains of influenza virus that infect humans are constantly evolving, meaning that scientists have to try to predict what these strains will look like during the next flu season so that they can match them to the strains included in the vaccine (the vaccine will usually include four strains at a time). This guessing game often results in a vaccine that's around 50% to 60% effective, but sometimes, as is the case this year, the mismatch can get worse. It doesn't help that this year's main flu is H3N2, a subtype of flu already known for being harder to predict than others.
In the words of the researchers, who published their results in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the vaccine "did not reduce the risk for outpatient respiratory illness caused by influenza A(H3N2) viruses that have predominated so far this season." Flu vaccines, even in a good year, are far from perfect. The strains of influenza virus that infect humans are constantly evolving, meaning that scientists have to try to predict what these strains will look like during the next flu season so that they can match them to the strains included in the vaccine (the vaccine will usually include four strains at a time). This guessing game often results in a vaccine that's around 50% to 60% effective, but sometimes, as is the case this year, the mismatch can get worse. It doesn't help that this year's main flu is H3N2, a subtype of flu already known for being harder to predict than others.
Still glad I got it (Score:1)
Wearing my seatbelt today was basically worthless too. But on those days that I get in a car wreck, and those years when the flu season is bad and the shot is a decent match, it's well worth it.
To anyone who doesn't want to wear their seat belt or get their flu shot: "you've gotta ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?'" [doyouremember.com]
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I ride motorcycles
In a t-shirt and shorts I bet.
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I ride motorcycles
On behalf of everyone on this site, thank you! We're in desperate need of more organ donors, so thankyou for doing your bit.
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I ride motorcycles
On behalf of everyone on this site, thank you! We're in desperate need of more organ donors, so thankyou for doing your bit.
Doesn't work apparently. Too much organ damage.
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The key is the helmet. If you don't wear a helmet then a relatively minor accident can leave you with a head injury which leaves you brain dead but all of your organs functioning. Lots of good organs to harvest.
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But on those days that I get in a car wreck,
Where are you driving that you're getting in a car wreck on multiple days? I don't want to be anywhere near you.
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Where are you driving that you're getting in a car wreck on multiple days?
Multiple days, over multiple decades.
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That's completely delusional.
You are correct. (Score:2)
Analogies are useful to aid in understanding, but not useful in proving a point.
So, to make this argument without analogy:
Most years the flu vaccine is 50-60% effective. That is super-awesome, given how awful the flu is. I like those odds, and the more people who take the vaccine the lower my exposure is, so the odds work out even better.
When the vaccine is not effective, like this year, all I suffered was a sore arm for a couple days. Once in a blue mood I get mild symptoms beyond that. So, with stakes
Re:Still glad I got it (Score:4, Interesting)
This year's flu shot was a poor match because of the long lead times to make the vaccine. The phamacos have to guess the prevalent strain long before it becomes apparent.
The solution is to move to mtRNA flu vaccines. They can be manufactured much more rapidly, with far less lag.
mtRNA flu vaccines are in trials now [nature.com].
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Just insist that they aspirate (draw back on the plunger to ensure they didn't inject into the blood stream. If they won't aspirate, go find someone who will.
You have a roughly 1 in 100,000 chance they will hit a blood vessel. And if they do, the vaccine goes straight into your bloodstream. You'll taste it in your mouth seconds later. And the manufacturers instructions say "do not inject into the blood stream" but cost conscious businesses drive the anti-aspiration decision. Your odds of having a bad
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"Much, much higher" times 1/100'000 is still basically irrelevant.
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"Much, much higher" times 1/100'000 is still basically irrelevant.
Now that all depends on the value of "much, much higher".
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"Much, much higher" times 1/100'000 is still basically irrelevant.
Now that all depends on the value of "much, much higher".
It really does not.
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Sigh..
If you get it in the fat or muscle- your odds of a bad reaction are under 0.1%.
If you get it in the blood- your odds of a bad reaction are about 7%.
That's right... most bad reactions are from bad injections.
So by insisting on aspiration, you can almost completely eliminate bad reactions.
And it's worse for young men who have a *lot* of blood vessels in the deltoids compared to women and older men.
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Just insist that they aspirate
This seems infeasible. If they are too stupid to give the injection properly yelling at them will not make them smarter. You need to either filter the specialists you trust for competence, avoid the specialist field altogether, or do the math and take your chances.
I'm not denying that you've latched onto something important in the comment threads. I don't know, but it sounds plausible enough. I'm saying, "just insist" is cruel optimism or victim-blaming and not a workable plan to prescribe onto someone
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No. This year's flu shot was a poor match because there was little data available on the spread of the flu due to the incredibly mild flu season in the other hemisphere. The flu vaccine is not constrained on lead time to manufacture, it is constrained on available data. The phamacos have to analyse a season and predict which strains will become dominant using that data. Given the number of flue cases have been insanely low compared to normal they don't have data for a good prediction. And sometimes they fla
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I think all of the mask mandates inhibited the spread of the flu making it difficult to determine good candidates for the vaccine. There just weren't that many people getting sick.
(My personal experience is that I have not had a cold or flu or anything else the past two years of mask wearing and hand washing. Usually get at least one cold a year. I plan on continuing to wear a mask in crowded areas.)
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The solution is to move to mtRNA flu vaccines.
It is. Personally I hope we will have something much better for the winter this year. And that we now have active research on a good scale into vaccines and particularly mRNA ones is one of the good things this pandemic did.
Re: Still glad I got it (Score:2)
The flu vaccine is a roll of the dice, playing the lotto can pay out better. They literally guess at what might be common and produce a vaccine without fda approval for what they think might be the common variant and they miss the mark sometimes. I've gotten the flu vaccine once and got sicker than anytime I've gotten the flu which is rare for me. I very well could have gotten the flu from visiting the dr office where to get the shot where the vaccine didn't protect me at all because it was the wrong vaccin
Re: Still glad I got it (Score:2)
Well, one point would have been dismissible as a possible false positive. Thankfully enough things in your post correlate to make the likelihood of "ignorant" to be greater than 95%.
Re:Still glad I got it (Score:4, Interesting)
I used to never get the flu shot, either.
Then I got the flu in February 2018 and I never fully recovered from it. 4 months after that, I had to be hospitalized for a week because I was so out of breath I couldn't walk more than 10 steps and needing to rest. Went to the doctor, and he said I should go to the hospital.
So no, the flu didn't kill me, but it damn nearly did. Now I get the flu shot because I don't want a repeat of that experience again.
It was also that flu where the work sent me to the doctor and then put me on sick leave. So it got me good.
That year's flu shot gave me the same symptoms as when I was sick, but at least it only lasted a day.
So yes, now I get the flu shot and my COVID shots, because if the simple flu did me in, I didn't want to see what COVID would do to me, nor did I really want to be hospitalized again with COVID raging. I think I need to see what other vaccinations I should get. n
And today, i have to take a cocktail of 6 different medications to treat the heart damage that the flu did to me. Luckily none really have any serious side effects, but that's life now, 6 different heart medications.
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After I realized this was the case I stopped getting flu shots.
Your results may vary.
n2ch
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Your results may vary.
Indeed. A few people do have adverse reactions. These vary from being sore, to having a headache, to having full on flu like symptoms that knock you out for a few days. Fortunately the latter is extremely rare.
Talk to your doctor (Score:1)
There may be other things you can do to either reduce your chance of getting the flu or to mitigate its effects if you do get it.
This could also be a sign of an over-active immune system which might lead to problems on its own later in life if not identified and monitored.
Except you may still have got it (Score:2)
No offense , but flu (not covid) doesn't so that to healthy people. A few days, maybe a week feeling like shit then its over. Sounds to me like you had underlying health issues particularly since it affected your heart.
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Either way, not every situation in which someone gets sick and dies is "because they had an underlying health issue". Sometimes you just roll
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" Flu can absolutely do this to healthy people."
No, it really doesn't any more than any other infectious virus that can cause post viral syndrome. Which is most of them.
"So the best recommendation is to get vaccinated."
Unless you have underlying health issues then the vaccine is probably a waste of time and money. 99.9999% of people will get over flu and be fine. You were just unlucky.
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Unless you have underlying health issues then the vaccine is probably a waste of time and money. 99.9999% of people will get over flu and be fine. You were just unlucky.
In reality 0.01 (most years) to 0.1% (very bad years) of people who get flu die from it. You 99.9999% statistic is provably incorrect using actual medical statistics.
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No, it really doesn't any more than any other infectious virus that can cause post viral syndrome.
Cool, so you should have no issues backing that statement up.
Re: Except you may still have got it (Score:2)
You've heard of google, right?
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I Am A Cardiologist.
For those that may reply that you must have had pre-existing heart conditions (There was a reply that vanished. That's strange.)...
We all have pre-existing vascular conditions. If you do an autopsy of any adult in the U.S. or Europe (or likely any other part of the world), you will find streaks of cholesterol in the arteries. Those streaks start to build up in our teens. They may lie dormant for decades. Then some sort of stress (ie: a bad infection, an extra puff of smoke from a ci
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I'm not certain what has happened to the moderation system recently,
but with mod points as rare as cheap lumber,
^^ here's ^^ an Informative Post, if you're curious what they look like in the wild.
OT: Mod points (Score:1)
I've been getting my regular doses of mod points.
The problem is, I can't use them in discussions I want to participate in.*
*Well, I CAN use them to give an "early bump" to a post then wait until it's +4 or higher before I make my post and cancel my mod point.
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Interesting. Makes a lot of sense though.
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From "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Legacy," Taubenberger and Morens, 2020
"Almost all of millions of fatal cases world-wide during the 1918 pandemic were associated with secondary bacterial infections, primarily with Gram-positive bacteria (Morens et al 2008). These secondary infections in 1918 were most frequently associated with the pneumopathogens Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes, and Staphy
So, what you are saying is ... (Score:1)
Or, rather, what you are saying that Taubenberger and Morens are saying is the if the 1918 flu epidemic had happened in the antibiotic era, the death toll would likely have been a lot lower?
Did I get that right?
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When people were saying at the beginning of the pandemic that COVID was basically just a 'bad flu', I was like, "have you ever actually HAD the flu? Not just the cold, but the flu?"
Even when you're healthy, the flu is a major kick in the teeth. I had the flu in my mid 30s—when I was still a (amateur) competitive cyclist and swimmer; super fit—and I remember sleeping about 20-22 hours a day for 3 days. I'd wake up in a chair, look around, and then pass out, and this is while I was taking DAYTIME
The flu varies in intensity (Score:1)
I've had the flu several times. Sometimes, I'm in bed practically all day for several days.
Other times I've had a lab-confirmed flu case that "felt" like a moderate cold.
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Other times I've had a lab-confirmed flu case that "felt" like a moderate cold.
Just out of curiosity, how did you end up getting any lab tests at all for what felt like a moderate cold?
I don't know if I've ever had the flu because when I have symptoms of a really bad cold I stay in bed. I've only gone to the doctor when I suspected strep throat or bronchitis/pneumonia. I can't imagine getting any lab test at all for symptoms of a moderate cold.
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This was years ago and I've forgotten the details. There must've been some nagging doubt in my mind and I wanted to rule out having the flu. Surprise, I tested positive.
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The flu can range in severity from asymptomatic to deadly.
Saying "If you wave off the flu like it's nothing, you've never actually had it." is patently false.
In your case, you've probably had the flu multiple times in your life, and had one particularly severe case.
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Not really the same thing. What they are saying is they found this year's seatbelts are basically made of tissue paper for accidents.
I know some who caught this flu. Apparently no nausea. The rest sucks but for me nausea is the worst.
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Your comparison is completely senseless, and I will explain why.
First, the seatbelt doesn't have to target strains. It just tries to hold you in your seat, no matter what kind of collision you get into. It doesn't target side impacts with a chest belt, and front impacts with a lap belt; you wear both belts all the time so you're as protected as possible no matter what kind of collision you get into. As such, the two things are not comparable.
Second reason, the flu vaccine is worthless this year even if you
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So just to recap, they know when it's a massive waste of time, effort, and money. They know when getting the shot is more of a detriment than a benefit. But they advertise it as if none of this were true, and harm (and even occasionally kill) people for profit.
strong agreement.
tl;dr Any engagement with this industry is risky. They're not properly motivated or supervised and don't have your best interests at heart. They're "corrupt" in that they no longer have good peer-based systems for settling on consensuses around the truth. Their scientific conclusions contain systemic error.
There are many hard-working sincere doctors, they're not totally corrupt, and their legacy has made them powerful helpers, but when evaluating the risks and benefits of whatever they o
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And that is how it is. Too many people think this fundamental fact does not apply to them though. The human race has an ample supply of idiots.
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To anyone who doesn't want to wear their seat belt or get their flu shot...
That's a false dichotomy (get a Flu shot or risk death). I haven't had a Flu shot in twelve years, and got the Flu exactly once in that time. When I got the Flu, I puked once on the first day (after which, I felt almost normal), relaxed at home for a few days until the fever broke, then was fully recovered. Whoop-de-doo. It's the same with my entire family that chooses to not get the Flu shot.
Prior to stopping the jabs, I got a Flu shot for the five years prior. I got the Flu in three of those five years, a
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Did you not read the article? It is saying that you are wearing a seatbelt made of tissue paper.
It might make you feel safe, but the one thing it clearly cannot do effect the outcome of a car wreck in any fashion.
Worthless this year (Score:2)
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My understanding was the first wave was more typical, mostly killing the very old and the very young, with subsequent waves killing younger healthy people. Have to remember that the whole population was run down due to WWI as well.
It is also thought more and more that the 1889-90 pandemic was actually a Covid pandemic even though at the time it was labeled the flu. Symptoms were more Covid like then the flu, only killed the old, lots of long Covid afterwards according to one article I read but can't find no
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You're right. Better start drinking piss instead. https://www.forbes.com/sites/b... [forbes.com]
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Which is more likely: 1) the definition of commonly used medical terms changes every week, or 2) there's a deficiency in the way this one person conveyed the information or formulated their conclusion this one time.
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I clicked through to the research results, and it says this:
A little bit earlier it defines ARI as "acute respiratory infection".
Scientist: +1 informative. Article by some journalist working for Gizmodo: -1 overrated. You acting outraged instead of taking a minute to RTFA: -1 troll.
Harder to predict this year (Score:2)
Quarantine slowed the flu for 2020/2021. So one of the less common ones popped up in 2021/2022. Not surprising at all.
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Yes, the quarantine, mask wearing, and hand washing has really made it tough for the flu. The flu meanwhile has appeared on Fox and appealed to viewers to please remove their masks before it went extinct due to NATO interference.
But seriously, people were laughing and mocking asians for wearing masks anytime someone got the sniffles, but it does seem to do something. I have a friend who didn't wear the masks but was a habitual hand-washer after touching anything public says he' hasn't caught the flu in a
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Quarantine slowed the flu for 2020/2021. So one of the less common ones popped up in 2021/2022. Not surprising at all.
It's even more insane than that. Influenza H1N1 is basically gone. Completely. Cumulative H1N1-2009 cases this flu season from all public labs put together: 5. Not this week. This *season*. COVID pandemic isolation may very well have done what decades of flu vaccination couldn't — eliminate a major strain of flu entirely.
So a whopping 99.9% of influenza A this year, at least in the U.S., is H3N2. And flu vaccines tend to be least effective against H3N2 [livescience.com] each year because the HA protein mutates s
Considering how flu shots are selected (Score:1)
What the fuck else did anyone expect given how everyone in public health was working double time to push policies that had the effect of destroying normal flu surveillance mechanisms and the normal dynamics of disease transmission between the southern and northern hemispheres?
There may or may not also be the problem of covid suppression measures punching a hole in normal flu herd immunity thereby leaving the population more susceptible to the virus than if it had been allowed to circulate. RSV in small chil
Re: Considering how flu shots are selected (Score:2)
Fyi, adults get RSV, too. In fact, if you're around kids a lot, you're almost guaranteed to catch it once a year or so, too. It's just that doctors don't officially care about adults who catch it, because it's only "bad" the first time around. Thereafter, it's more of an annual nuisance.
Secret tip: molnupiravir might be mediocre as a "covid drug", but if you google its original investigational name, you'll find plenty of journal articles from a few years ago documenting that it's SPECTACULARLY effective as
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Re: Considering how flu shots are selected (Score:2)
From what I've read, the FDA raised at least two more roadblocks (specific to approval of broad-spectrum antiviral meds for "colds"):
1. It doesn't want to approve their use when a susceptible virus hasn't been *confirmed*. This is a huge problem... antiviral meds for a cold have a short window of opportunity before they're basically moot... and by the time symptoms emerge, it's almost too late. Requiring confirmation that can't be achieved within minutes on the spot mostly destroys that window of opportunit
Re: Considering how flu shots are selected (Score:1)
While the question of whether mulnopiravir is sufficiently safe in children, adults of reproductive age and past it is one I haven't formed an opinion on due to lack of information, I will opine that this is the same FDA that kept covid testing down here in the US in the early pandemic days and wouldn't budge on at home tests for a good long while on account of a combination of concerns that insufficiently accurate tests weren't perfect therefore they were useless and a concern that even if they were accura
Clarification (Score:2)
Different countries mix their own flu vaccines to match what that country expects to face.
Just because US authorities picked badly doesn't mean every country will.
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The US and Europe usually end up picking similarly, because of the rapid spread across the Atlantic.
In the Southern Hemisphere the flu season doesn't peaks for a couple of months. So rather than guessing, Australia makes it's own vaccine based what actually did circulate in the Northern Hemisphere Winter, and will be arriving with tourists. They sometimes cover 3 or 4 different strains, though a recent one that covered 4 strains produced higher allergic reactions.
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Yeah, Aussie here. It's surprising how many people don't realize we can (and do) make all this stuff here specifically to cover our country.
I normally grab mine about mid-late April—being immune compromised, my doc gets me one with the increased immune response agent.
One more season w old tech (Score:2)
We can't use our new superpower yet. Instead of guessing six months in advance what strains will be circulating, we'll be able to load a sequence into a computer and spin up new mRNA molecules. But we're still in Phase I trials of the mRNA flu vaccines and will be through June 2022, and there's no guarantee we will get results as spectacular as the COVID vaccines.
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Of course the flu vaccine was worthless (Score:1)
Now that the flu season has been. The anti vaxxers forecast that all of us who got the covid vaccines would die by now. With over 200 million dead Americans people are too few and far between for the flu to travel between communities. The end of over population. There can only be about 100 million Americans left, plus the lizard people of course.
Any people you see who you know to be vaccinated are either zombies to be killed or products of your deranged mind.
No need to predict!!! (Score:1)
How often is it a bad match? (Score:1)
I give up (Score:2)
Quasi-related (Score:2)
It's interesting to compare this year's fly data with last year's. If I recall correctly, we were under 2,000 flu deaths total last year.
With the caveat that I'm very much not an expert on this topic, my admittedly ignorant opinion is the anti-covid precautions did a great job of preventing the Flu.
Not completely worthless (Score:2)
Re: Not completely worthless (Score:2)
That was the most stupid, ill-informed, worthless thing I have ever read. You must be the most gullible person in the world if you think those were genuine dinosaurs. Science can't do that yet. Those were Jews _dressed_ as dinosaurs!
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oh yeah? (Score:2)
I also know of another vaccine this year that was basically worthless.