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Medicine

Studies Suggest Why Omicron Is Less Severe: It Spares the Lungs (nytimes.com) 70

A spate of new studies on lab animals and human tissues are providing the first indication of why the Omicron variant causes milder disease than previous versions of the coronavirus. From a report: In studies on mice and hamsters, Omicron produced less damaging infections, often limited largely to the upper airway: the nose, throat and windpipe. The variant did much less harm to the lungs, where previous variants would often cause scarring and serious breathing difficulty. "It's fair to say that the idea of a disease that manifests itself primarily in the upper respiratory system is emerging," said Roland Eils, a computational biologist at the Berlin Institute of Health, who has studied how coronaviruses infect the airway. In November, when the first report on the Omicron variant came out of South Africa, scientists could only guess at how it might behave differently from earlier forms of the virus. All they knew was that it had a distinctive and alarming combination of more than 50 genetic mutations.

Previous research had shown that some of these mutations enabled coronaviruses to grab onto cells more tightly. Others allowed the virus to evade antibodies, which serve as an early line of defense against infection. But how the new variant might behave inside of the body was a mystery. "You can't predict the behavior of virus from just the mutations," said Ravindra Gupta, a virologist at the University of Cambridge. Over the past month, more than a dozen research groups, including Dr. Gupta's, have been observing the new pathogen in the lab, infecting cells in Petri dishes with Omicron and spraying the virus into the noses of animals. As they worked, Omicron surged across the planet, readily infecting even people who were vaccinated or had recovered from infections. But as cases skyrocketed, hospitalizations increased only modestly. Early studies of patients suggested that Omicron was less likely to cause severe illness than other variants, especially in vaccinated people. Still, those findings came with a lot of caveats.

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Studies Suggest Why Omicron Is Less Severe: It Spares the Lungs

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  • by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Saturday January 01, 2022 @02:28AM (#62133033)

    Eventually it may become the preferred way to vaccinate the public, since a large segment of the population stubbornly refuses to vaccinate. Using a contrived excuse such as a sort of self defense, if a large percent of the population refuses to vaccinate against some future virus, say airborne Ebola, they could modify a fast spreading virus such as omicron to carry some harmless Ebola genes (similar to the Spike protein gene mRNA) such that the population could be immunized to Ebola. What could go wrong?

  • by Lisandro ( 799651 ) on Saturday January 01, 2022 @02:29AM (#62133037)

    Relevant thread [twitter.com] from a New York ER doctor on the subject.

    Get your shots, if you haven't, and you're in the clear.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Antivaxxers downvoting in 3... 2... 1...
      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        by Lisandro ( 799651 )

        Antivaxxers downvoting in 3... 2... 1...

        Man, i don't even care anymore. I just hope to maybe reach one.

  • by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 ) on Saturday January 01, 2022 @03:05AM (#62133061)

    Viruses - all pathogens really - are generally stupid: the more they try to kill their host, the fewer hosts they have to replicate and propagate.

    I'm guessing Omicron might be the brainier member of the COVID family that went "You know what? If we played just a little nicer and didn't rub them the wrong way so much, they might just buy boxes or tissues and drink lemon tea when we invade rather than scramble worldwide to create a vaccine to wipe us off the face of the planet..."

    Of course the brainiest of all the viruses is the herpes virus: it's almost totally silent and almost everybody has it. Talk about a successful virus! COVID could take a lesson or two from herpes if it wanted to succeed.

    Of course, it is entirely possible that I read too much into this and that viruses have neither intentions nor plans of any kind for success...

    • Covid has already a low letality rate and is already a success. We didn't manage to stop it. Only China manage to control it but at a very big price.
    • Of course, it is entirely possible that I read too much into this and that viruses have neither intentions nor plans of any kind for success...

      Of course not, they're merely executing $DEITY's will!

    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      The normal path of novel pathogens as they adapt to a new host species over generations is "more virulent, less lethal". Because for a pathogen, there are two failure modes. First is "did not successfully spread to a new host" and second is "killed the host". Evolution being what it is generates pressure on pathogens to go in the opposite direction of these failure modes.

      • by jbengt ( 874751 )

        Because for a pathogen, there are two failure modes. First is "did not successfully spread to a new host" and second is "killed the host".

        That "second failure mode" is not a failure if the virus infected at least one new host before killing, and if it does kill its' host before moving on to others, that's just one version of the first failure mode.

        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          This is technically incorrect in that virus doesn't care about individuals. It cares about aggregate. And on aggregate, killing the host is a failure mode because it massively decreases the chance of spreading the illness when it comes to illness spread by breathing apparatus functioning.

          Because dead people don't have a functioning breathing apparatus.

    • by fazig ( 2909523 )
      That's been one of the hypothesized outcomes from the start, that we'll end up with a strain that is most infectious but comparably benign.

      Though it's not a given that something like that will happen, which is evident by a lot of other things that haven't mutated into mostly benign pathogens.
      Maybe a phenomenon that's just likely to emerge via pandemics?
    • by dryeo ( 100693 )

      There's no thought, just random dice throws and whatever works sticks.
      Often viruses, like SARS, and I think the flu, make people obviously sick before infecting others, not good for the virus as sick people stay home and others avoid the obvious sick, It is why we eliminated SARS, the infected were obvious, they were only contagious when sick, so through quarantine, we eliminated it.
      Covid has a different trick, being infectious before making people sick and even not making people sick. It is also infectious

    • it doesnt work that way bro. nothing is really "smart". all things mutate, thats how humans came to be from single cells.
      and so the virus doesnt pick how to mutate it just does. the killing of the host is small potatoes. mythology.
      wishful thinking.
      the real dynamics is just randomness. when a virus is fear its because of its ability to kill. but since it will mutate it will loose that ability just from random mutations. its like answering the 500k question and then going for a million and then los
      • by jvkjvk ( 102057 )

        >but since it will mutate it will loose that ability just from random mutations

        But will that be a mutation that allows it to out compete the other variations? If not, it will not succeed. If a mutation that is more deadly out competes the other variations then we will end up with a more deadly strain sweeping the world. Since, as you said, mutations are random, there is really no way to know which way it will go.

        • the part thats deadly is probably 1% of the rubix cube squares lined up to make the same color.
          once you start moving the layers of the cube you loose the colors.
          when you loose the colors people develop immunity without serious illness.
          its a self fullfilling prophecy thats why we are even here to talk about it.

          we live in an ecosystem that self references itself ever since the big bang. my perenials come out every year down to the day sometimes.
          and they leave just as accurately.
          we are not special. this sha
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • This is basically the strategy to win Plague Inc.
    • Viruses - all pathogens really - are generally stupid

      Anthropomorphizing a microbe just perpetuates society's tendency to misunderstand how things work.

      Microbes have no desire, intelligence, or willpower, either individually or collectively. The same is true for evolution and natural selection, which should only be used to describe why past events have likely happened the way they did, or predict the probability of future events.

      Herpes is so successful because it remains dormant in hosts' bodies indefinitel

  • by nojayuk ( 567177 ) on Saturday January 01, 2022 @05:38AM (#62133227)

    Scotland has a large proportion (ca. 90%) of its adult population vaccinated and many (ca. 66%) have received mRNA booster doses over the past few months thanks to an ongoing re-vaccination program.

    The Omicron variant was first detected on 20th November here at a "private event" (probably a big wedding) with a second spreader event, a pop concert in Glasgow on 22nd November. Since then the numbers of cases of COVID-19 reported in Scotland has increased by nearly 500% to date with the Omicron variant being identified as 80% of all new cases, mostly via via the "missing S-gene" fingerprint in PCR-RT tests.

    The effect on healthcare in Scotland is that hospital bed occupancy of people with COVID-19 has slowly ticked up, from about 500 beds to 850 or so but ICU beds and ventilation bed usage has not risen noticeably. The number of deaths reported daily of people diagnosed with COVID-19 has remained roughly the same.

    The way it's looking from my layman's perspective, this new variant spreads more easily so it's stretching the healthcare system's capacity as lots more people get sick each day. The effects on sufferers are milder with more infected people, especially those vaccinated and boosted, able to cope at home using OTC drugs and rest rather than requiring medical intervention. It is still a serious problem for people with compromised immune systems, pre-existing conditions etc. and it can still kill.

  • by Dirk Becher ( 1061828 ) on Saturday January 01, 2022 @06:54AM (#62133299)

    But they are pretty good at haggling.

  • And the reason it is affecting so serioous right now is because the virus is still technically novel, unlike other cold coronaviruses, which are so ubiquitous that people were generally exposed to them while they were still children and so their immune system can cope with it more competently as they age and otherwise would become more vulnerable.
  • But still causes lots of blood clots, you'll have many, many people who are alive but incapacitated due to strokes and heart attacks. That's going to result in not only a huge health burden but also a seriously impaired workforce generating the revenue to pay for that health burden. You either want massively improved treatment to reduce the damage done to people, along with a massively reduced incidence of the virus, or you want the virus to kill cleanly. A massive number of physically and mentally wrecked

    • Oddly enough, those same things happen to those who survive COVID. But it happens in 10x greater numbers.

      I haven't had a flu shot since grade school some 40 yrs ago either.

  • Remember the days when WHO was optimistically touting that the world could avoid a COVID pandemic, if only a small number of people took the proper precautions? Yeah, me too, LMFAO about that one. Next time, maybe the WHO should actually do something useful, like acting like the adult in the room.

He who steps on others to reach the top has good balance.

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