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Medicine

South Africa Raises Alarm Over New Coronavirus Variant (wsj.com) 244

South Africa's government is considering new public-health restrictions to contain a fast-spreading new variant of the coronavirus that scientists say has a high number of mutations that may make it more transmissible and allow it to evade some of the immune responses triggered by previous infection or vaccination. From a report: The warning from the South African scientists and the Health Ministry, issued in a hastily called news briefing Thursday, prompted the World Health Organization to call a meeting of experts for Friday to discuss whether to declare the new strain a "variant of concern." The WHO uses this label for virus strains that have been proven to be more contagious, lead to more serious illness or decrease the effectiveness of public-health measures, tests, treatments or vaccines. Other variants of concern include the Delta variant that is now dominant world-wide and the Alpha variant that drove a deadly wave of infections across Europe and the U.S. last winter and spring. While the scientists said they were still studying the exact combination of mutations of the new variant -- currently dubbed B.1.1.529 -- and how they affect the virus, its discovery underlines how changes to the virus's genome continue to pose a risk to the world's emergence from the Covid-19 pandemic.
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South Africa Raises Alarm Over New Coronavirus Variant

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  • All of them for at least a year. Only freight. Zero people. No excuses.
    • That will not accomplish anything.

    • by blahabl ( 7651114 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @02:59AM (#62022563)

      All of them for at least a year. Only freight. Zero people. No excuses.

      The time to do that was when WHO was knowingly repeating Chinese misinformation on how they supposedly got everything under control, and the left was screaming at the top of their lungs that travel restrictions to China are racism.

      That train has long left now.

      • by Ed Tice ( 3732157 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @06:03AM (#62022827)
        Given that we can now look back and see that travel restrictions from China didn't help us one bit, I think you have to give this one to the "left." You only need one case in a country for it to spread to the whole population of left unchecked. By the time we know about the virus it was already here. The border closings had a mostly theatric effect. I worded that very carefully because we knew so little at the time (and had no reliable testing mechanism) that desperate measures were really the only measures available. At the time the motivation may have been theater, racism, desperation, or a combination of the three. But looking back we can see that the only outcomes were negative.
        • by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 26, 2021 @09:17AM (#62023101)
          And yet countries that closed their borders fared way way better. New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, China.

          The border closings had a mostly theatric effect.

          Of course if you do the America version of 'closing' you get the American result. [worldometers.info] Top 20 deaths per capita and a smidge off 800k total dead.

        • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @12:13PM (#62023389)

          Given that we can now look back and see that travel restrictions from China didn't help us one bit, I think you have to give this one to the "left."

          [Citation Needed] The countries least affected by the virus are the ones who openly put in the strongest *meaningful* travel restrictions. And by meaningful I mean not: "Travel ban, except for citizens, except for green card holders, except for visiting your mother, except for business, etc. etc."

          There's a reason countries in Europe with a comparable population have more cases in a 2 week period than Australia has had the entire pandemic, and it sure as fuck isn't because Australia has a good vaccination program.

          • Those are also the countries that put in the strongest *meaningful* *other* counter-measures like contact-tracing. Yeah if you are going to do contact-tracing, it's way harder with foreign visitors around. And foreign visitors are less likely to follow social distancing rules not because they are foreign but because if the pandemic doesn't cause them to want to cancel vacation plans, they probably don't take it seriously. But the *US* travel restriction was meaningless and tinged with racism!
            • Those are also the countries that put in the strongest *meaningful* *other* counter-measures like contact-tracing.

              Yep, it's easy to do contact tracing when you have travel restrictions in place. You know what made headline news in Australia? A nurse coming into contact with someone arriving in Australia who was in the mandatory quarantine and who tested positive to COVID. That news article proceeded to list everywhere she'd gone in the past weekend, and the city initiated a 3 day lockdown to perform contact tracing (which was lifted after 2 days).

              Something you can only do if you have travel bans in place. If you're goi

    • by pesho ( 843750 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @04:13AM (#62022641)

      All of them for at least a year. Only freight. Zero people. No excuses.

      That ship sailed two years ago.

      This virus is here to stay and there is now way to get rid of it. It spread using humans around the world and now it has jumped to wildlife all over the place. In North America it is spreading in white tail deer. In other parts of the world it may use different species. This means new variants will evolve out of sight and jump back to us. The new South Africa variant looks like it came back from a wildlife reservoir. In SA as in the rest of the world the Delta variant and its flavors are 100% of the cases. The new variant has nothing to do with Delta and has shocking number of mutations specifically in the Spike protein. It seems related to the B.1.1 line that was around a year ago. One explanation for where it came from is that a virus related to the B.1.1 jumped to an animal, where it evolved and now it is back.

      The best course of action now is mandatory vaccination, potentially with new vaccines against the variants. The vaccines will not eradicate the disease, but can reduce the rate of hospitalization to a point where the healthcare systems are not overwhelmed and we can adjust to a new "normal" life.

      • FYI you will probably get modded into oblivion but you are correct that there are only two possible outcomes. Either the virus mutates to be less deadly or we eradicate it through vaccines. The latter seems impossible in the US right now. At some point, though, other countries may achieve this. Both identity politics and biology are in play. If the virus continues to kill at current rates, at some point, the backlash against the anti-vaxxers will get even more severe. Hopefully the virus becomes less
    • How does keeping borders closed help? I never understood this policy. The virus is present all around the world right now. The average net effect is zero. Either our public safety measures work or they don't. The virus does not care about national original. As far as I can tell this was originally a political ploy... its the WuHan virus so quarantine people coming from WuHan which arguably made a trivial amount of sense before we could test for the virus. But now it just dampens global trade for nothi
    • Western Australia closed the borders in March. They're still closed.
  • We don't know: (Score:5, Informative)

    by Rei ( 128717 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @03:09AM (#62022573) Homepage

    * How well it's neutralized in 2x vaccinated individuals
    * How well it's neutralized in 3x vaccinated individuals (boosters significantly improve cross neutralization)
    * How well it's neutralized in previously infected individuals
    * How severe it is compared to prior infections.

    We do know:

    * It's growing rapidly in SA while Delta remains in decline
    * Much of SA has been infected before, though the exact numbers are unclear. Over the course of the wave last winter, this study [oup.com] found 19,1% RBD seropositive, as well as nearly half of all cases with confirmed past infection showing up as seronegative (waning antibody levels below the detection point), indicating up to 40% of the country having been previously infected at that point. This was before the summer wave. I've seen reports of over 70% having been infected today, although I'm not sure of the source.
    * South Africa is poorly vaccinated - 28% 1x and 23% 2x. Main problem is hesitancy, not supply. Booster rollout has not started.
    * We have limited anecdotal cases of double vaccinated travelers with detected cases and very high viral loads which developed quickly. Although there is significant selection bias involved in these anecdotes.

    So we have to wait for study results to find out more... lots of unknowns, but very concerning.

    • We don't know this stuff because it's a new strain. But we do expect new strains to be at least somewhat vaccine-evasive. It's very hard to get a vaccinated-vaccinated transmission. But a breakthrough case will, by definition, have some small amount of vaccine resistance. If that gets transmitted to an unvaccinated person and spreads through the unvaccinated population, it will retain some vaccine-evasiveness when it jumps back to a vaccinated host.
    • In other words "perfect incubator" locale. We've been getting lucky 777's for awhile with essentially minor variations, we could just as easily roll snake eyes and get a real nasty mutation of it too. Longer things stew the more likely it will be.
    • Not concerning - it’s a coronavirus that’s now endemic and will show up with mutations every year, which is what we’ve seen every year of our modern history. It’s an RNA based respiratory virus, it will never be more than that (eg retro or filo virus), and you will not die from it. It’s been two years, stop spending all your days looking for a reason to stoke the deep fear of everything you’ve adopted. Grow up. People like you are the only remaining problem, and your bigg
  • by khchung ( 462899 ) on Friday November 26, 2021 @04:49AM (#62022689) Journal

    If you look at the comments in /., even as early as in Feb-March 2020, there were already many who had said that one of the outcome of the stupidity that was called "Herd Immunity" would be mutation giving you an even worse pandemic.

    People who resisted lockdowns and masks, calling to "get it over with", all ignored these warnings. Even after the Delta appeared.

    Now, we can all enjoy something even worse. Countries that chose to "live with the virus" now face the tough decision to either "live with" a deadlier virus, or go back to lockdown, one that need to be even more stringent because of the large infection base.

    • Has herd immunity ever been achieved in a short time period without vaccines? I think the 1918 flu pandemic lasted close to 40 years.
      • by khchung ( 462899 )

        Has herd immunity ever been achieved in a short time period without vaccines? I think the 1918 flu pandemic lasted close to 40 years.

        That had also been pointed out in early 2020, and again, idiots ignored that too.

  • Looks like spring will be fun. From the fakenews-NYPost [nypost.com]:

    Hong Kong has identified a variant case in a traveler from South Africa, while Botswana has detected four cases in foreigners who have since left the country.

    On Friday, Israel — one of the world’s most vaccinated countries — announced that it has also detected the country’s first case of B.1.1.529 in a traveler who returned from Malawi.

    ...

    The first case in Europe has been detected in Belgium, according to the country

  • While cowards die over an over again everyday. There are no piles of bodies in South Africa, for all we know huge number of mutations made the virus milder. Most viruses attenuate over time because they benefit from you feeling well enough to walk around and spread them. Let's chill while scientists figure out if there is in fact a problem and rev vaccines to track new variants if needed. Pfizer is citing [foxbusiness.com] a 100 day turnaround for tailored shots.

    • by jaa101 ( 627731 )

      Pfizer is citing [foxbusiness.com] a 100 day turnaround for tailored shots.

      So the large-scale clinical trials can begin then? Have regulators said anything about their willingness to approve a "tailored" vaccine more quickly than any other new vaccine?

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