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Earth Science

The Scientists Hired By Big Oil Who Predicted the Climate Crisis Long Ago (theguardian.com) 146

An anonymous reader shares a report: As early as 1958, the oil industry was hiring scientists and engineers to research the role that burning fossil fuels plays in global warming. The goal at the time was to help the major oil conglomerates understand how changes in the earth's atmosphere may affect the industry -- and their bottom line. But what top executives gained was an early preview of the climate crisis, decades before the issue reached public consciousness. What those scientists discovered -- and what the oil companies did with that information -- is at the heart of two dozen lawsuits attempting to hold the fossil fuel industry responsible for their role in climate change.

Many of those cases hinge on the industry's own internal documents that show how, 40 years ago, researchers predicted the rising global temperatures with stunning accuracy. But looking back, many of those same scientists say they were hardly whistleblowers out to take down big oil. Some researchers later testified before Congress, using their insider knowledge to highlight the ways in which the oil industry misled the public. Others say they have few qualms with how the petroleum giants handled their research. Few, however, could have predicted the imprint their work would have on history in efforts to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for our climate emergency. The Guardian tracked down three of those scientists to see how they view their role today.

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The Scientists Hired By Big Oil Who Predicted the Climate Crisis Long Ago

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  • Prior art (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Ol Olsoc ( 1175323 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @10:40AM (#61544222)
    How quickly we forget Joseph Fourier (1824) Claude Pouillet (1827) and Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

    Arrhenius is noteworthy because his is the first known prediction of Global Warming based on a hypothetical doubling of CO2,

    Once upon a time, belief in physics was not a political stance.

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @11:03AM (#61544344)
      for as long as it's existed. Science challenges authority. That's the most fundamental aspect to it. Nothing is above being questioned. It's not a big shock that people in authority wouldn't get along with a philosophy built from the ground up to question authority.

      Science is only tolerated because it's too useful to the people in charge for them to completely discard it. But make no mistake, the ruling class is, always has been and always will be hostile to anything that can result in major society changes (as scientific advancement can). When push comes to shove their power, wealth and position is more important than your life and mine.
      • by rtb61 ( 674572 )

        The delusions of power have greater impact on our lives than reality. The delusions forced on the majority under threat of violence from the minority. The believers accept and the minority the scientifically inclined, the reasoners, can not help but see the delusion for what it is and reality for what it is and express reality (some much more than others, especially the cowed or quislings). For those that use the threat of violence to enforce the delusions of power, expressing reality and exposing the delus

    • Reality is at odds with most politics, too bad reality always wins. The only choice to be made is how high do we want to stack the bodies before accepting reality.

      • Reality is at odds with most politics, too bad reality always wins. The only choice to be made is how high do we want to stack the bodies before accepting reality.

        The really nutty part was once upon a time the political party we are speaking of was on board with the physics involved, then they drifted to "free market solutions" to the problem, and now believe it is a Chinese hoax, doesn't exist at all.

        So AGW denial takes it's place among Chemtrails, flat earth, faked moon landings, windmill cancer, 5G chips in vaccines, and heating your whole house with a clay pot and two tea candles.

      • Reality is at odds with most politics,

        Let's not mince words. These days, reality is just at odds with a very specific type of politics. Those of conservatives and populists across the globe, such as the Republican party and Trumpism in the U.S, Bolsanaro in Brazil or Orban in Hungary. These parties and politicians are little more than the protectorate and extended arm of old-industry corporations and their plutocrats.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Re:Prior art (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @11:28AM (#61544482) Journal

      Nothing about the fundamentals of AGW are in question. We know what the energy absorption and re-emission properties of carbon dioxide are, and as you point out, have known these properties since the 19th century. We can even calculate how much additional energy gets trapped for each tonne of CO2 in the atmosphere. The debates are not over whether industrial activity over the last two centuries is increasing the energy (mainly thermal) in the lower atmosphere and oceans, it's just what it's going to look like. We're now at least getting some sense of the thermal capacity of the oceans, which is allowing us to firm up models. And frankly, most of the deniers have backed off from what has been consistent magical thinking (literal magical thinking, as in, somehow, CO2 functions differently in Earth's atmosphere), and now just proclaim that we have to "adapt" (which is code for, we need to keep burning fossil fuels, and developing countries and coastal cities can go fuck themselves).

      • Nothing about the fundamentals of AGW are in question.

        That isn't my impression. I have a relative (with a PhD in engineering), who claims that the CO2 absorption models must be totally wrong because they conflict with his armchair understanding. And, so he dismisses all of climate science rather than educate himself slightly on the science of atmospheric heat transport.

        In part this seems to be driven by wishful thinking, and in part by being in a media bubble. I find that left-wing media manufactures outrage about climate change. And, right-wing media m

        • You're running up against the Salem Hypothesis [rationalwiki.org]. While it used to mainly apply to engineers' tendency towards Creationism, it also has of late applied to engineers imagining they have the training and knowledge to judge climate science. But if this guy thinks chemists and physicists have had carbon dioxide energy reemission properties wrong for over a hundred years, he's just gone completely into magical thinking mode.

    • Re:Prior art (Score:4, Interesting)

      by amorsen ( 7485 ) <benny+slashdot@amorsen.dk> on Friday July 02, 2021 @01:10PM (#61544894)

      Once upon a time, belief in physics was not a political stance.

      That is not how it worked. Most of physics, then and now, is apolotical, because it has no impact on people's lives. Like recently it was confirmed that black hole mergers result in a black hole that is at least as large as the two former black holes put together. No one is protesting in the streets because of that.

      Similarly, what Arrhenius discovered had zero influence on people's lives in 1896.

      In contrast, Galileo Galilei's discovery that the Earth goes around the Sun had a direct effect on people's lives, in that it shows that church dogma was wrong. Belief in physics was definitely a political stance at the time. Charles Darwin's theories caused plenty of political stir as well. In neither case the survival of our civilization was at stake.

    • Once upon a time, belief in physics was not a political stance.

      Ya, but it was sometimes considered to be a religious one, so... progress?

      (...checks the news...)

      Never mind.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Aging_Newbie ( 16932 )

      Those of you who tuned in their 1958 B&W TV could watch one of the finest science videos ever done. If you want to just watch the pertinent video, here is a two minute excerpt from the AT&T science show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

      But, those who want to see a very creative show on meteorology, there is this https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

      Enjoy. And see how long people knew this was coming.

    • The entire point of science is, that you do not have to believe.
      You can check!

      It's weird how Americans always treat science like a religion.
      No wonder religious people in the US think they can argue that science is "just another ideologic belief system".

      Also, outside of very religious states, like in the middle east, or the US, science is still as respected as ever. You can't beat usefulness. :)

      • The entire point of science is, that you do not have to believe.

        You can check!

        It's weird how Americans always treat science like a religion. No wonder religious people in the US think they can argue that science is "just another ideologic belief system".

        Well we do a huge jump of assuming about all Americans, now don't we?

        Also, outside of very religious states, like in the middle east, or the US, science is still as respected as ever. You can't beat usefulness. :)

        I'm assuming you are in Europe - Here's a question. Why do y'all make these impressive leaps to condemn all Americans? There are groups who like to make us look like we're all snake handlers. They have a different motive though. Our destruction.

        No, most of us 'Murricans believe (or know if you like ) in science.

        And those who don't like science, have company across the pond https://www.theguardian.com/co... [theguardian.com]. Europe has fla

  • by froggyjojodaddy ( 5025059 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @10:41AM (#61544232)
    Everyone is 'data driven' or 'data led' until the data disagrees with their opinion or strategy
  • by joshuark ( 6549270 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @10:49AM (#61544260)

    Scientists predicted global climate change, but Big Oil had a vested interest not to disclose the finding.

    After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the media was rife with comments about how the CIA didn't foresee or predict this. The answer is simple, no entity is ever going to predict, or start with a premise of its own obsolescence. So predicting the fall of the Soviet Union, and the redundancy of the CIA is against self-interest, and continuation of an agency that consumes $36-billion in the budget. Contrast that to the KGB that for $4-billion did what the CIA, NSA, FBI did, plus other responsibilities. And the CIA has missed other events, so a redundant agency with $36-billion to waste with its head up its posterior.

    So the big oil companies weren't going to release information that indicated fossil fuels were leading to global climate change. And its easier even if the results were released to continue as business as usual, no re-think of our activities as a species on this planet.

    JoshK.

    • Scientists predicted global climate change, but Big Oil had a vested interest not to disclose the finding.

      They actually had an interest in discrediting the finding.

      And still do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • Not so long ago was an article on Slashdot about a carbon capture company paid by "big oil" to build a prototype carbon capture facility. Or at least that was a rumor going around. I have little doubt that "big oil" is investing in this technology because that is a vital step in the process of producing net zero carbon hydrocarbon fuels.

    "Big oil" is being threatened by the electric car. If they can't find a way to keep selling fuel then they go out of business. Or at least that is the rumor. The path t

    • Perhaps they will 'solve' that, but what will be the point when we'll all already have electric cars by then?
      • Perhaps they will 'solve' that, but what will be the point when we'll all already have electric cars by then?

        Electric cars won't solve container ships and intercontinental air travel.

    • "Big oil" may have been a major contributor but they have the money, motivation, and expertise to solve this. I believe that they will solve this.

      That big oil cock sure must taste good. Big oil will do whatever costs them the least.

      • That big oil cock sure must taste good.

        WTF? How old are you? Does your mom know you are using her computer?

        Big oil will do whatever costs them the least.

        You mean like everyone else in the world?

    • "Big Oil" is just corporations with lots of money. They don't have to keep investing it in oil. They can invest in whatever will keep them profitable down the road. Working on the scale of decades, they have plenty of time to put themselves in position to stay in power (pun intended) without oil.

      • "Big Oil" is just corporations with lots of money. They don't have to keep investing it in oil. They can invest in whatever will keep them profitable down the road. Working on the scale of decades, they have plenty of time to put themselves in position to stay in power (pun intended) without oil.

        That's right they don't have to invest in oil. Instead of petroleum they are investing in synthesized fuels, or that's the rumor.

        I remember hearing how petroleum companies were investing in solar PV. This didn't work well for them. One problem was that people chose to invest in these companies because it was a "bet" on petroleum based fuels and chemicals. By "diluting" their focus on petroleum they were diluting the value of their stock.

        Another problem was that they were being accused of sabotaging the

    • by jythie ( 914043 )
      Why should they solve it? There are enough reserves and enough nice places to live that they can milk this till everyone involved is dead. Their wealth protects them from consequences.
    • The path to keep selling fuel is synthesized hydrocarbons

      And instead of investing lots of R&D into that, they spent 1/1000th the money on lobbying to prop up their old business model.

      Really, the shareholders of these oil companies should be pissed. One of the big oil companies would have developed into the leader on synthetic hydrocarbons, or biologically-generated hydrocarbons, or some similar technology, and made several trillion off it. Heck, big oil's delaying tactics mean battery tech advanced to the point of displacing hydrocarbons in passenger vehicl

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by TomGreenhaw ( 929233 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @11:04AM (#61544350)
    We need to phase in a carbon tax worldwide that funds removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Oil companies that certifiably remove the CO2 themselves would be exempted. Companies that are historically responsible should be required to remove what was emitted in the past.

    Governments should subsidize R&D to do something useful with the carbon, e.g. carbon fiber.

    We shouldn't set total elimination of fossil fuel as a goal, but its impact on the environment needs to be mitigated with the cost included in the product.
    • We need to phase in a carbon tax worldwide that funds removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.

      Have you seen how much people complain when the price of gas increases?

      • Yes, children don't like to eat their vegetables either...

        They are starting to complain louder about flooding, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and a lot of major impacts caused by human caused climate change as well.
        • People who complain about price of gas increases vote the politicians out who did it. Children can't do that.

          You might say those people are adult children, but their votes still make a difference.

          • by dryeo ( 100693 )

            The politicians who introduced the carbon tax here didn't get voted out very quick, at that they won the election (most seats, most votes, just not quite as many seats as the other 2 parties combined) where they finally lost power to the coalition of the left and the Green party who are pro-carbon tax.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      • Good. That means a carbon pricing scheme will have the desired result. People complain gas is getting too expensive, EVs become more attractive, and within a decade or two, ICE vehicles become a decided minority.

        • by PPH ( 736903 )

          Good. That means a carbon pricing scheme will have the desired result.

          I don't disagree. But the current thinking is to regulate carbon by dictate rather than establish a pricing scheme and associated market.

          And credits for sequestration will be handed out based not only based on the amount captured, but whether the scheme is 'owned' by third world indigenous tribes or Chevron.

          • Good. That means a carbon pricing scheme will have the desired result.

            I don't disagree. But the current thinking is to regulate carbon by dictate rather than establish a pricing scheme and associated market.

            Yep. And it will be just as expensive to the end consumer, but less efficient at reducing emissions.

            I understand your point about the political palatability, but it's really unfortunate, because simply pricing emissions in would be both cheaper and more effective.

            • by PPH ( 736903 )

              because simply pricing emissions in would be both cheaper and more effective.

              With what mechanism? Central planning fell out of favor several decades ago. Even self described communist regimes (China) use largely capitalist free market mechanisms.

              Better to set a cap and let producers bid for the rights. Some will develop low carbon technologies and save money on permits. Others will choose not to and pass costs on to consumers. Consumers themselves will choose based on price. If cheaper low carbon alternatives exist, people will switch to them. If not, some people will choose to do

              • because simply pricing emissions in would be both cheaper and more effective.

                With what mechanism? Central planning fell out of favor several decades ago.

                This is precisely why a carbon tax is more efficient than trying to regulate emissions. Put a cost on carbon emissions, make it refundable for anyone who finds ways to actively pull CO2 out of the air, then let the market figure out what combination of emissions avoidance, carbon capture and carbon recapture and sequestration provides the most benefit. Far better than regulatory attempts to curb this emission source or favor that reduction.

                Central planning is what a carbon tax avoids!

                Ideally, the prici

                • by PPH ( 736903 )

                  Central planning is what a carbon tax avoids!

                  So, a market-based tax? I don't think I've ever heard of such a thing. But if I can go around to a few gas stations and get them to bid on the tax I'll pay on my next fill up, I'm all for it.

                  make it refundable for anyone who finds ways to actively pull CO2 out of the air

                  And you don't think that will take a huge bureaucracy to handle as a tax/tax credit scheme? It would be better to let markets handle those transactions. If the NYSE can't keep transaction costs down, people can take their carbon certificates to the LSE or NASDAQ.

                  • by dryeo ( 100693 )

                    A carbon tax leads to consumers deciding to spend their money on options that are cheaper, so it encourages a certain type of market solution rather then the government planning the economy.
                    Ideally it is revenue neutral, here (BC) the income tax was dropped by the amount the carbon tax brought in and it is all handled by the same bureaucracy as was already handling the other taxes.
                    When the Federal government brought in its carbon tax, the Provinces were allowed to run it if they chose as long as it was big

      • Have you seen how much people complain when the price of gas increases?

        Gas is ~$3/gallon across the U.S. (some higher, some lower, depending on where you are). Yet, people are still piling onto the SUV/pickup truck bandwagon with abandon. Doesn't sound like people are complaining or, if they are, it's under their breath.
      • And yet they still buy hulking, gas-guzzling, SUVs and pickup trucks and live in those ridiculous McMansions out in the suburbs where they have to drive an hour or more each way to and from work every day. Sorry, not sorry. They bring the pain upon themselves.

        If you structure your lifestyle more reasonably and responsibly... drive a 33/42-mpg Civic (Much more fun to drive than an SUV/Truck anyway.), avoid the hell that is suburban sprawl so you have a 35-minute train ride to work most days, or a 15-minute

        • And yet they still buy hulking, gas-guzzling, SUVs and pickup trucks and live in those ridiculous McMansions out in the suburbs where they have to drive an hour or more each way to and from work every day. Sorry, not sorry. They bring the pain upon themselves.

          If gas were double or triple the cost it is today, people would stop doing that, which is the point. Oh, they'd still have the McMansions (I have one, and I quite like it, thank you very much), but they would commute in hulking, energy-sucking EVs and roof their McMansions with solar panels to keep their electricity costs down.

          This would be good.

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        It's been too hot here to complain about the C$1.72 a litre gasoline.

    • Companies that are historically responsible should be required to remove what was emitted in the past.

      So...wipe out all of their profits across history without allowing them to recoup the increased cost because what was produced has been sold long ago. You wouldn't have to look far to find unintended consequences here.

    • by Miles_O'Toole ( 5152533 ) on Friday July 02, 2021 @11:32AM (#61544532)

      A good start would be to end ALL fossil fuel subsidies, so the cost of gasoline rises to the actual cost of producing it.

      • That would also involve having fossil fuel companies defend their supply chains with private military forces. Saw an article a while ago that calculated that the US military budget effectively subsidizes gas by about 25c/gal

        • That would also involve having fossil fuel companies defend their supply chains with private military forces. Saw an article a while ago that calculated that the US military budget effectively subsidizes gas by about 25c/gal

          I don't think this is true any more. The US is approximately energy-independent in fossil fuels today, and could very easily be independent at need, with only a small increase in cost. Fracking has made this possible. Even if that weren't enough, oil shale and tar sands could do it, though at a higher price point. And the trend is toward both reduced consumption and greater domestic production.

          Given all of that, it no longer makes sense for the US to go to war over oil, just as it never made sense for th

          • It was actually a rather recent and conservative estimate, details here:

            https://www.vox.com/energy-and... [vox.com]

            • It was actually a rather recent and conservative estimate, details here:

              https://www.vox.com/energy-and... [vox.com]

              Yes, but they're clearly just looking at what the US is spending on deployments in relevant areas. That isn't the same as saying that we're actually spending that money on defending oil supplies. Defending oil supplies may have been the past rationale for starting those deployments, but at this point I think the reason we're continuing them is a combination of inertia and other factors, not because we're actually concerned about maintaining the oil supply.

    • by King_TJ ( 85913 )

      Ensuring companies pay for the "full lifecycle" of what they produce has always been suggested as the ideal situation. Problem is, you really have no way to ensure the money collected or taxed really goes towards that end.

      EG. There was a big push for the computer hardware makers to offer free recycling programs so people could dispose of their outdated gear responsibly. Sounds great on paper, but the reality is, most of that recycling amounted to shipping the stuff to any nation willing to accept it (like

    • We need to phase in a carbon tax worldwide that funds removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.

      People are not going to vote themselves higher fuel prices. Can't anyone think of a solution that doesn't involve raising taxes?

      Oil companies that certifiably remove the CO2 themselves would be exempted.

      That would be unnecessary if there was no tax in the first place. If this did happen then I'd expect all kinds of fraud and abuse.

      Companies that are historically responsible should be required to remove what was emitted in the past.

      Right, so you pass that law, all the companies held responsible declare bankruptcy or just dissolve the corporation. Then a new company comes in existence, hires all the same people from the old company, buys all the assets from the old company and th

  • No.... I first heard about the impact that air pollution (as I recall it being labelled when I was a child) having a serious impact on the earth's environment and maybe leading to a potential runaway greenhouse effect back in the late 1960's. So maybe the guy predicted it a decade or so before, but not multiple decades. I certainly didn't have any special access to non-public information when I was was in first grade.
    • by mark-t ( 151149 )
      blargh.... I don't know words... I confidently hit submit before rereading what I had typed... I humbly ask forgiveness for the superfluous word reuse that makes the above look like it was written by someone only vaguely literate.
    • AGW was first predicted in the 19th century as CO2s properties became better understood. Anyone with some basic knowledge of physics can tell you bumping up the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere inevitably leads to capturing more thermal radiation. It's simple physics; the absorption/re-emission properties of CO2 coupled with thermodynamics.

  • Who's relying on research by oil companies? Scientists have been warning about this for decades.
  • There are many, many points one could mention when discussing climate change with a denier, but this one is pretty potent. Any time I've asked a denier, "if climate change isn't real, or it is but isn't caused in any way by human activity, why have fossil fuel companies believed for decades that they're contributing to it significantly?

    I have yet to hear any sensible response to this. Not that I get many sensible responses from such people on this topic in general, but this point is especially salient. C
  • "m carbon dioxide buildup would be 40 years later. We made a prediction in 1980 of what the atmospheric warming would be from fossil fuel burning in 2020. We predicted that it would be about one degree celsius. And it is about one degree celsius."

    So they were out by a factor of 2 or more. Temperature rise in the last SEVENTY years has been about 0.7 deg C, and not all of that is CO2 related.

  • The problem has been common knowledge since the early 60ies. There are regular reports and documentaries from the 1970ies, the first TV documentary from 1958 discussing the problem. I clearly remember discussing this as a nine year old with my dad back in 1979.

    This is what bugs me about this problem: it's really not news. We're just not addressing it even though that would've been due in the mid 80ies the latest.

Algebraic symbols are used when you do not know what you are talking about. -- Philippe Schnoebelen

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