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Medicine

Report from Israel: About Half of Adults Infected With Covid-19 Delta Variant Were Fully Inoculated (msn.com) 212

Ran Balicer leads an expert Covid-19 advisory panel for the Israeli government. Friday he shared some troubling news with the Wall Street Journal: "The entrance of the Delta variant has changed the transmission dynamics," said Prof. Balicer, who is also the chief innovation officer for Israel's largest health-management organization, Clalit.

About half of adults infected in the outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated.

These so-called breakthrough cases — defined as positive Covid-19 test results received at least two weeks after patients receive their final vaccine dose — are broadly expected as the Pfizer vaccine is highly effective but not 100% foolproof, according to Mr. Balicer. Israeli health officials are optimistic that even if the variant does spread, evidence from countries such as the U.K. indicate the vaccine will prevent a large increase in severe illness and hospitalizations that plagued the country's health system in previous outbreaks. Israel has recorded only five severe cases in the past 10 days, Prof. Balicer said, but whether more will emerge is too early to tell....

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said the worrisome variant is now present in 85 countries.

Several countries appear concerned that fully vaccinated people could still spread the Delta variant. Israel's government just reimposed safety measures (including an indoor-mask requirement), according to the Journal. And Sydney, Australia (the country's largest city, housing more than 5 million people) "will enter a hard two-week lockdown on Saturday night..." reports CNN, "as authorities try to contain a fast-spreading outbreak of the highly infectious Delta coronavirus variant." More than a million people in downtown Sydney and the city's eastern suburbs were already under lockdown due to the outbreak, but health authorities said they needed to expand that after more Covid-19 cases were recorded, with exposure sites increasing beyond the initial areas of concern.
Meanwhile, CNBC reports: The World Health Organization on Friday urged fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks, social distance and practice other Covid-19 pandemic safety measures as the highly contagious delta variant spreads rapidly across the globe. "People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They still need to protect themselves," Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said during a news briefing from the agency's Geneva headquarters. "Vaccine alone won't stop community transmission," Simao added. "People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene ... the physical distance, avoid crowding. This still continues to be extremely important, even if you're vaccinated when you have a community transmission ongoing."
CNN reports that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also "warned that there is a small chance a fully vaccinated person could still get infected if they're exposed." "Current data suggest that COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the United States offer protection against most variants currently spreading in the United States. However, some variants might cause illness in some people even after they are fully vaccinated," CDC spokesperson Jade Fulce told CNN in an email on Friday. While Covid-19 vaccines are effective, Fulce said no vaccine is "100% effective at preventing illness." And with millions of people getting vaccinated against the virus, some who are fully vaccinated "will still get sick if they are exposed," Fulce said.

"However, people with breakthrough infections may get less severely ill or have a shorter illness than they would have if they had not been vaccinated."

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Report from Israel: About Half of Adults Infected With Covid-19 Delta Variant Were Fully Inoculated

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  • by JoshuaZ ( 1134087 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @10:40AM (#61523476) Homepage
    The base rate in Israel matters here. Since they have a much higher percentage of people fully vaccinated than anywhere else, a higher proportion of cases there will have to be fully vaccinated. If one had a 100% vaccinated population then it would be true that every single infection would be one which was fully vaccinated. The Delta+ variant is bad but this more reflects base rates than that.
    • The sample size may be small and you are right to wait to form any strong conclusion based upon the data. It is however of note that such a small sample with a 50:50 distribution would be extremely improbable in the case the odds were closer to 1:100 for example.
      • The math is sneaky, but understandable:

        Imagine you had a 1% chance of getting covid when you were vaccinated. Then imagine 99% of the population was vaccinated.

        If everyone who wasn't vaccinated got the virus, and 1% of the people who were vaccinated got the virus, then what percentage of the population would be in each group?

        Sometimes you will see this with the measles vaccine too, where 50% of the people who catch measles in an area are vaccinated, because the population of vaccinated people is so much lar

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @11:11AM (#61523572)
      True, but I still don't want to get it. Even if my vaccination keeps me out of the hospital that doesn't mean I don't get really sick, with symptoms that can linger for months (years? There's still a lot we don't know).

      What pisses me off is how companies are dragging their employees back to the office when it's pretty clear that it's a) unnecessary and b) too soon. I'm 90% sure the reason for this was plummeting real estate value for commercial property.

      I've told this story here before but in my old town the local fast food joints held up a highway bypass for years because they didn't want commuters going around their shitting restaurants or worse having enough free time to make breakfast at home. If you think the folks who own hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial real estate haven't considered the effect of WFH on the value of their property you're nuts.
      • by PopeRatzo ( 965947 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @12:35PM (#61523790) Journal

        True, but I still don't want to get it. Even if my vaccination keeps me out of the hospital that doesn't mean I don't get really sick, with symptoms that can linger for months (years? There's still a lot we don't know).

        One thing we DO know, is that the more opportunities a virus has to spread, the more it replicates – and the more opportunities it has to undergo changes. Vaccinations reduce the spread and so reduce the number of mutations which could lead to variants

        The more people vaccinated, the fewer variants and the sooner we'll stop having to deal with all this shit. When you get vaccinated, it protects you, but it also protects everyone else.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by denzacar ( 181829 )

      Half of the infected were unvaccinated children under 16.
      90% of all new infections are the Delta variant.

      Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials suggest about 90% of new infections there were likely caused by the Delta variant, according to Ran Balicer, who leads an expert advisory panel on Covid-19 for the government.
      Children under 16, most of whom haven't been vaccinated, accounted for about half of those infected, he said.

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        It's doubling each week here in BC, where only about 25% are fully vaccinated (80% have one shot), seems the same story in much of Canada with the Yukon for example leading in vaccinations and now having more cases then anytime in the pandemic, cases are mostly among unvaccinated.

    • Also worth mentioning, over the last two months Israel has been averaging 1 death per day (or less). With those kind of numbers, random anomalies are likely to pop up because the sample size is small.

    • It also makes a difference which vaccine is used and in what proportion; the Pfizer & Moderna are stunningly more effective.

      I can't find a breakdown for Israel; the pest I can tell is heavy use of Pfizer.

      But if we see a lot of breakthrough in a population that was mostly J&J, for example, that doesn't *necessarily* mean there's anything for a population that's all P&M.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • that Pfizer is 92% effective at stopping people from getting severely sick with Covid, and AZ is something like 85%.

          For stopping people from getting severely sick with Covid, both Pfizer and AZ are pretty close to 100%. These numbers that you provide are closer to numbers for getting Covid the disease (which means any symptoms strong enough to arouse suspicion of covid). Not for getting severely sick.

  • None of this emergent pattern should surprise anyone familiar on any level with viruses that affect humans. Society and many cultures worldwide will need to change at a fundamental level to prevent the otherwise inevitable.

    Many human cultures currently see no difference between squatting down to defecate in a public place and coughing, sneezing or rubbing the face, nose and lips. In this case "many" will need to approximate "all" as soon as possible.

    Of course keeping distance, wearing a mask, practicing hyg

    • Many human cultures currently see no difference between squatting down to defecate in a public place and coughing, sneezing or rubbing the face, nose and lips.

      Sounds like I need to stay out of Israel then.

    • Being a selfish asshole has proven to be a successful strategy for prosperity and especially mating. So, the number of people who are like this is necessarily high.

      It sucks, of course, as it makes life worse for everyone. But natural selection doesn't care about that. It only cares about what works.

      And assholery works.

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Does it? Seems that about 20% (plus or minus 10%) of the population are severe assholes. If it worked that well, I'd expect higher numbers

  • And? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @10:54AM (#61523516) Homepage

    Vaccines protect against becoming sick, not becoming infected - thats the whole point. Your body fights off new infections thanks to the vaccine but the infection is still there for a short while. This is just more scaremongering from what seems to be becoming a covid industry with vested interests.

  • Several countries appear concerned that fully vaccinated people could still spread the Delta variant

    Maybe the conspiracy theorists weren't wrong after all

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease [wikipedia.org]

  • by TheNameOfNick ( 7286618 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @11:02AM (#61523552)

    I will not go into another lockdown to protect people who refuse to get vaccinated, even if it turns out that there is a risk that vaccinated people can get infected and infect others. I will wear a mask indoors in public, but that's it. It is your choice not to get vaccinated, so it's your risk. I've done my part.

    • There's no vaccine for kids under 12.
      • by Known Nutter ( 988758 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @12:57PM (#61523854)
        Then protect your brood. They are your responsibility. Not everyone else's.
        • Doesn't it take a village to raise a child?

          • Doesn't it take a village to raise a child?

            Mothers, Fathers, Grandparents, siblings...going back to birth, doctors, nurses, and every other worker in the birthing wing. Babysitters, day care workers, teachers, counselors, advisors, coaches, and friends.

            Yeah, it does take a village.

            Also takes a known nutter to represent the village idiot.

        • by Petrini ( 49261 )

          While I get this - as a parent, I really do - I think you're missing the point of "society". We are all in this together. Get vaccinated and help out your entire (city|region|nation|continent). The GP's point is that the kids can't be vaccinated, so the parents are. If all adults/12+ did, the kids under 12 would be safer. And GP's right. This libertarian-esque "I'll go my own way in a pandemic" blather is part of why we're in this much of a mess to begin with.

          I have one child under 12 and one over. B

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It's not my choice, it's a medical necessity.

      If you work with me I'd hope you would take precautions, and make accommodations for me like extended WFH.

    • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @11:41AM (#61523664)

      I will not go into another lockdown to protect people who refuse to get vaccinated

      Will you go into lockdown to protect people who can't be vaccinated? Are you going to ask each person individually before you declare you life more important than theirs?

      I mean we know you hate kids, that much already is evident since they don't get the vaccine either. I mean I get it, I hate kids too, but I don't wish COVID on them. What made you so angry?

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        No, I won't. It's not a rational solution to the problem. The relatively few who can't be vaccinated for medical reasons can go into lockdown and I would support that they get the help they need to protect themselves. I have done my part to protect these people by getting vaccinated and all the other stuff that slows contagion. If others refuse to get vaccinated and instead keep this virus spreading and hogging medical resources, then those people should be the target of your vitriol. Kids have a very low r

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by ftobin ( 48814 )

      All we have to do to encourage vaccinations is to remove subsidized Covid-19 treatment if you aren't vaccinated. The premium for getting social subsidizing is that you get the vaccine.

    • by dryeo ( 100693 )

      Lots of places like here in Canada where people haven't had the opportunity to get fully vaccinated. Personally I'm a week away from being considered fully vaccinated, my son just had today's appointment for his 2nd shot canceled (heat warning). With stories like this, I think the full reopening needs some delay here.

      • So neither of you refused to get vaccinated, right? You're not the problem. But you know that people will say we need to keep locking down because vaccinated people can still spread the disease. But to whom? What's the risk? The vaccinated have a very low risk of falling seriously ill. Kids have a very low risk of falling seriously ill. Of the remaining people, there are very few who cannot get vaccinated, and the vast majority of those also need to protect themselves from other usually benign infections an

        • by longk ( 2637033 )

          The willingly unvaccinated are not the people asking for lock-downs.

        • people will say we need to keep locking down

          You're using a loaded subjective term which is objectively meaningless. I believe we need to practice hygiene. We need to take basic precautions for the health and welfare of other members of our society which do not significantly impact efficiency or public order. Our culture needs to evolve out of the stone age and take a view of persons who behave in public in a way which endangers others and society as a whole exactly as they are.

          When you assess the harm to ou

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      I agree with the sentiment, but we should be careful about assuming that everyone who is still vulnerable is vulnerable because they chose not to get the vaccine. Some people are immuno-compromised and it's uncertain whether the vaccine works on them.

      • For instance, my friend who's a transplant recipient. A large fraction of people on anti-rejection drugs develop no antibodies at all even from the mRNA vaccines.

        • My father had a heart transplant 4 years ago. Still doing great. Both him and my mom got both shots back in February or March.

          So just because you are on medications that help prevent rejection of an organ, doesn't necessarily mean you can't get the vaccine.

          • by hey! ( 33014 )

            Yes, but those drugs may limit the vaccine's effectiveness. We don't really know how much though.

    • by longk ( 2637033 )

      I have a feeling that people that don't vaccinate never really cared for lock-downs either. Those lock-downs were very much to please those that are now vaccinating.

      If there is another lock-down, pay attention: it will be vaccinated folks scared that a new variant isn't stopped by their vaccine asking for it. It won't be the anti-vaxxers.

  • About half of adults infected in the outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated.
    ...

    Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials suggest about 90% of new infections there were likely caused by the Delta variant, according to Ran Balicer, who leads an expert advisory panel on Covid-19 for the government.
    Children under 16, most of whom haven't been vaccinated, accounted for about half of those infected, he said.

    Also...

    The rapid spread of Delta in the U.K., where it accounts for well over 90% of new infections, has already led to a one-month postponement of the planned ending of Covid-19 restrictions until July 19.
    In the past seven days, the number of people testing positive for the virus has increased by 50% compared with the previous week, to an average of almost 13,000 daily.

    The increase has mainly been in younger, unvaccinated groups, and data show the variant is making very little headway among older, vaccinated adults.
    Over 60s account for just 4% of cases.
    ...

    Analysis by England's public-health agency suggests vaccines provide significant protection against Delta after two doses, reducing the risk of symptomatic illness by about 80% and the risk of hospitalization by around 96%.
    That is only slightly weaker than the protection vaccines confer against Alpha, also known as B.1.1.7.
    ...

    The U.K. has recorded instances of breakthrough infections and even deaths among vaccinated individuals.
    Of 117 deaths linked to Delta in the U.K., 50 were among fully vaccinated adults.
    Scientists and public-health officials say the numbers are small and in line with what might be expected given the effectiveness of the vaccines.
    All those deaths were in people over 50, who would be expected to account for almost all deaths in the absence of vaccination.

    I.e. Cases of symptomatic illness among vaccinated are 25% or less, hospitalizations are 5% or less and deaths are at less than 0.4%, all of them people over 50.

  • by VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @11:14AM (#61523582)
    AFAIK, the vaccines stimulate your immune system with specific features of the virus so that it can respond more effectively against it, thereby making the patient less ill when/if they catch the virus. AFAIK, vaccines don't directly prevent infection, they only train your body to fight it better. Aren't fewer infections a secondary result of infected people shedding less of the virus, i.e. transmitting it less? Doesn't this just mean that the Delta variant remains significantly infectious among the vaccinated, i.e. they still shed the virus enough, or is it that it spreads much better from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated or a bit of both? And yes, it does sound like really bad, scaremongering reporting going on. I wonder if that's what the virologists & epidemiologists actually meant.
  • by SigIO ( 139237 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @11:19AM (#61523596)

    One of my vaxxed employees had to travel back to India last month. His mother, father, and brother were all in hospital with Covid. He ended up burying his mother, but when it came time to come home, he got sick. Not sick enough to require hospitalization, but a positive Covid test all the same. While this is a sample set of 1, one could posit that the vaccine kept him from a severe bout with the disease.

    I also had my own "cardiac" experience with the vaccine, in spite of being in good health and weight. But life is about chance, opportunity and risk. I'm of the opinion that if the vaccine is liable to cause you serious issues, the real Covid disease will be worse.

    One thing is certain: Delta is coming. And for the unvaccinated and unexposed, you'll run real risk of ending up like my employee's mother.

  • As usual, a high rate of infections correlates to a high rate of testing. Hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID are the only numbers we need to track and worry about. Testing is useful to identify and keep infectious people away from vulnerable individuals, but positive tests results in people who don't get sick is not what should be worrying us.
    • but positive tests results in people who don't get sick is not what should be worrying us.

      A person who tests positive but does not get sick could be an asymptomatic carrier. These carriers not knowing they are infected could be infecting others as they may not be taking the necessary safeguards to prevent infecting others.

    • but positive tests results in people who don't get sick is not what should be worrying us.
      They infect others ...

  • by nextTimeIsTheLast ( 6188328 ) on Saturday June 26, 2021 @02:06PM (#61524086)

    The UK has a much higher level of the Delta variant than Israel and is seeing little impact on vaccinated people. This is more "lets all panic" journalism"

    "Analysis by England’s public-health agency suggests vaccines provide significant protection against Delta after two doses, reducing the risk of symptomatic illness by about 80% and the risk of hospitalization by around 96%. That is only slightly weaker than the protection vaccines confer against Alpha, also known as B.1.1.7."

The truth of a proposition has nothing to do with its credibility. And vice versa.

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