Please create an account to participate in the Slashdot moderation system

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Earth Science

Bill Gates: It's Not Too Soon To Start Thinking About the Next Pandemic (linkedin.com) 124

Bill Gates and Melinda Gates write in their annual letter, shared by reader cusco: To prevent the hardship of this last year from happening again, pandemic preparedness must be taken as seriously as we take the threat of war. The world needs to double down on investments in R & D and organizations like CEPI that have proven invaluable with COVID-19. We also need to build brand-new capabilities that don't exist yet. Stopping the next pandemic will require spending tens of billions of dollars per year -- a big investment, but remember that the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to cost the world $28 trillion. The world needs to spend billions to save trillions (and prevent millions of deaths). I think of this as the best and most cost-efficient insurance policy the world could buy.

The bulk of this investment needs to come from rich countries. Low- and middle-income countries and foundations like ours have a role to play, but governments from high-income nations need to lead the charge here because the benefits for them are so huge. If you live in a rich country, it's in your best interest for your government to go big on pandemic preparedness around the world. Melinda wrote that COVID-19 anywhere is threat to health everywhere; the same is true of the next potential pandemic. The tools and systems created to stop pathogens in their tracks need to span the globe, including in low- and middle-income countries. To start, governments need to continue investing in the scientific tools that are getting us through this current pandemic -- even after COVID-19 is behind us. New breakthroughs will give us a leg up the next time a new disease emerges. It took months to get enough testing capacity for COVID-19 in the United States. But it's possible to build up diagnostics that can be deployed very quickly. By the next pandemic, I'm hopeful we'll have what I call mega-diagnostic platforms, which could test as much as 20 percent of the global population every week.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Bill Gates: It's Not Too Soon To Start Thinking About the Next Pandemic

Comments Filter:
  • ... the second wave will be much worse, so DON'T OPEN UP UNTIL ITS ACTUALLY DEAD!

    • Next one should be meteor preparation.

      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        Next one should be meteor preparation.

        The last few "once in a century" meteors killed no-one, despite the atomic-bomb levels of energy. There is only one possible record in history of mass deaths from a meteor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
        Volcanoes, for example, are many orders of magnitude more of a threat, and pandemics are orders-of magnitude worse than that.

        • You "forgot" that the dinosaur got killed by a meteor, and that most likely the "3rd" of the biblic floods was caused by a "meteor" hitting Greenland.

        • by cb88 ( 1410145 )
          Percentage of population wise.. this was a weak ass pandemic. By far politicized reaction to it caused far far more damage than the actual deaths and heath issues did themselves.
    • ya.
      excellent spokesperson.
      and court records show it.
      from the mouth of the person that lies cheats and steals.

  • by cygnusvis ( 6168614 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @02:28PM (#60997942)
    Middle and low income countries need to pull their weight too.
    • Middle and low income countries need to pull their weight too.

      A whole legion of middle and low income countries have done better at fighting this pandemic than the US, UK and China.

      • Elbonia and the Duchy of Grand Fenwick have reported zero cases. Clearly, the smaller the country, the less susceptible to COVID they are.

      • by ThomasBHardy ( 827616 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @02:47PM (#60998032)

        True, but that's correlation, not causality.

        The issues in the US and UK were about resistance to behaving safely, nothing to do with being a high income country,

        • Resistance from who? Because despite media coverage the resistance did not come from the citizens. It came from the government. And it had everything to do with being a high income country (and not being prepared to suffer any economic loss until its too late). The UK is only just now closing its borders.

      • by teg ( 97890 )

        Middle and low income countries need to pull their weight too.

        A whole legion of middle and low income countries have done better at fighting this pandemic than the US, UK and China.

        China has been doing pretty good?

        That said, things differ between countries.

        E.g. most low-income countries have a very different age profile than rich countries. They also have have far less "underlying conditions" - some they don't get as much as they're caused by bad lifestyles, others they die from long before they Covid. As a result, the disease is far less dangerous for these countries.

        Rich countries also differ. Some countries are really bad - e.g. the US has legions of brainwashed, cultist idi

        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          they die from long before they Covid.

          First time I've seen that used as a verb.

          • Haven't you seen anyone ever co-vid?
            As is co-video using Zoom or whatever.
            That's still a new verb though.

          • by teg ( 97890 )

            they die from long before they Covid.

            First time I've seen that used as a verb.

            Wouldn't it be nice if Slashdot allowed you to edit posts for spelling, clarity etc., and supported unicode?

            Should be "others they die from long before they get Covid". Still not a sentence to make me proud - I really need to shorten my sentences.

            Here, I'm trying - somewhat helplessly - to point out that there are diseases which you live with in the rich part of the world that will kill you in a poor country. Thus, the Covid at-risk groups for "young" people in poor countries are smaller.

      • Hopefully you realize that's because the median age in many of those countries was *under* 20 years.
        Niger has a median age of 15.4

        21 countries in Africa have a median age of 18.8 or lower.
        https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]

        The median age of the entire continent is under 25.

        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          Median age of Japan is 48.4, their population density is 347.07 inhabitants per square kilometer, and yet as of today they have a total of 107 deaths from COVID19 in the entire country.

          There are ways to deal correctly with a pandemic disease, the US has simply demonstrated pretty much all the ways one should NOT deal with it.

          • The true American way would be to invest a whole lot of pork barrels in 105mm "Anti-covid guns", and a coal-fired vertical take-off supersonic [insert several buzz-words here] contraption , with Apple AI.

            It might not solve the virus problem, but it would make a lot of rich people richer.

            • There is no one U.S. way.

              We have 329 million citizens.

              That's more than most of the EU combined.

              Would you say France and German did things the same way? Spain?

          • by dryeo ( 100693 )

            There's a few factors, Japan is lucky to be an island. Here in Canada, the parts of the country that could isolate from the rest of the country have done much better.
            Having a united government and a population that trusts their government is another big plus for Japan, though they do seem to have lucked out at the beginning when they were more interested in keeping the Olympics happening. America and Brazil seem to have done the worst on the good united government thing, both with populists who govern by di

      • by vlad30 ( 44644 )

        Middle and low income countries need to pull their weight too.

        A whole legion of middle and low income countries have done better at fighting this pandemic than the US, UK and China.

        No they simply do not have the same ability to test if they could test in the same numbers US, UK and China I think you will find very different results. There are many countries also who have given false numbers or hide the true numbers

    • how does a "low income" country pull it's own weight. By definition it can't do that. I mean, you *might* make a point about middle income, but there aren't really a lot of those (France and the UK maybe?).

      And moreover, better to fight it over there so we don't have to fight it over here. The Rich countries, being the ones a) blessed with wealth and b). more often than not getting rich exploiting cheap labor in those middle and low income countries should be the ones fronting the bill, both for moral an
  • The irony, we were thinking about this one and look how things turned out. I don't mean because of any particular person's actions but worldwide things were not handled well. This did not sneak up on anyone.
    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Well "we" were thinking about this for a certain value of "we": people working in public health, science geeks, and apocalyptic fiction authors, sure. Other people, particularly most politicians, not so much. People were slow to take this seriously, and even now a lot of people are in denial.

      But for the time being, it's not just geeks who understand this is important, and it's a good time to really promote preparation. COVID-19 is not really "the big one". It's more like a dress rehearsal. In this moment

  • Gates has tens of billions of dollars. If his idea is so great, he can easily take care of the investment himself. I have a feeling he wants to get the general public to invest a lot of their money in some businesses that he already has a stake in himself. Even if he's right in thinking this is a good idea (which it is), he's hardly being altruistic.

    The reality is that the world isn't anywhere near ready for another pandemic and probably won't be, especially for anything that is considerably more infecti
    • by cusco ( 717999 ) <brian@bixby.gmail@com> on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @02:56PM (#60998070)

      If his idea is so great, he can easily take care of the investment himself.

      Not by a long shot. Partly because this is **NOT** the only thing he's working on (the Gates Foundation has a remarkably diverse portfolio of projects), but mostly because he's the first to recognize that he's not a magical oracle and that putting all your eggs in one basket is stupid. Just because the Foundation funds a project doesn't mean that it will be a success, or the most successful, or the best answer, and you'd know that if you read any of his work. They do what they **THINK** is going to work, most of the time it does, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes someone else comes up with a better idea (at which point they generally try to shift gears and support the better idea).

      This should have been a worldwide priority project long before a dog ate a dead bat and the virus mutated to infect humans, and it still needs to be a worldwide priority project long after COVID is an entry in the history books.

    • I think he is by bringing it up, and being someone they may listen to.

      Governments are better equipped to prep nations for this than a few billionaires. He's saying they need to get on it.

    • Deadly factor (Score:4, Interesting)

      by DrYak ( 748999 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @04:35PM (#60998664) Homepage

      especially for anything that is considerably more infectious or deadly than COVID-19. {...} If it were something as lethal as Ebola,

      More infectious: yes that's going to be a nightmare.

      More deadly: actually nope. Deadly is a limiting factor for a virus. When you entirely depend on a host's biochemical machinery to replicate it's counter-productive to kill said host to fast.

      One of the reason SARS-CoV-2 has been so successful at causing an epidemic is that it indeed kills "only 1%" of its victims. Even if 1% of a whole population is still way too many deaths(*), the remaining 99% that don't drop dead can successfully carry it around. Even more so the ~20% asymptomatic among them who don't even realize they are carrying around a virus. Or the additional (roughly) ~10~20% who didn't understand because they don't have clear symptoms or haven't started yet having symptoms.

      Compare that with Ebola which killed its victim way too fast. If most of the sick people get inst-killed by turning into a giant puddle of blood, that: 1. Looks gruesome. 2. can wipe out an entire house hold. 3. but will never have the time to reach the village next door.

      Contrast that with HIV: you can go years before you develop AIDS and eventually die (if untreated). That leaves plenty of time during which the virus can happily propagate around.

      The perfect nightmare of a pandemic would be an airborne HIV-like. Something that is very good at contamination. But which takes years until the patient is killed.
      Such a beast has the potential to wipe out human civilization.

      Maybe it's something slightly less deadly than COVID-19, but it takes 3 years in order to create a vaccine instead of roughly 1 year.

      The 3 years situation isn't likely in the future anymore, thanks to the revolution of mRNA-based vaccines.
      By the next pandemic, the question isn't going to be 1 year versus 3 years.

      By the next pandemic, the question is going to be:
      - "is it vaccinable ?" in which case the vaccine is guaranteed to be available fas (maybe even faster than 1 year, if the technologies continues maturing and if the next pandemic has a few uncontrolled hotspots where it is possible to quickly enrol test-subjects in the study).
      - "or is it something that's deeply incompatible with vaccination ?" - e.g.: like diseases which are antibody-enhanced. i.e.: diseases where the virus manages to leverage the antibody to infect white blood cells. (HIV does that among others).

      ---

      (*): this discussion entirely side step another critical point of the current pandemics, but concerning the surviving people: SARS-CoV-2 can fill intensive care units very fast for a very long time. It's much more devastating to the healthcare system than influenza.

      • by cusco ( 717999 )

        It's much more devastating to the healthcare system than influenza.

        And we're only now learning about the long-term effects of people who had only a mild or even asymptomatic case. This is going to be filling hospitals for decades.

      • More deadly: actually nope. Deadly is a limiting factor for a virus. When you entirely depend on a host's biochemical machinery to replicate it's counter-productive to kill said host to fast.

        The problem is that Covid can spread before the victim is even sick, and Ebola can spread after the victim is dead. Some viruses spread through an intermediary, so that the intermediary passes on the infection while the previous victim is safely tucked up in his coffin.

        Deadly is not always an issue.

  • by William-Ely ( 875237 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @02:49PM (#60998046)
    I'm preparing by registering all the COVIDnn.whatever domains now! I'll see myself out...
    • If you don't do "Covid22 - Electric Boogaloo" I will throat punch you.
    • Didn't people learn of the y2k problem.
      What happens after the year 10k?
      Do you want to have to change all the domains to COVIDnnn.do we really need more TLD's?

  • by Anonymous Coward

    And Wall Street got half of it over the last 16 months. Make 'em give it back!

  • Seriously, this could have been a LOT worse, yet countries like the US are shitting the bed with simple and effective precautions like wearing masks (and instead are dying at rates way above comparable nations..focused on the 'dumb' in 'freedom'.)

    Imagine if this was something that had a might higher death rate, which could very well be 'the next one'. (Or even a variant of this one.)

  • by dcollins ( 135727 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @03:27PM (#60998286) Homepage

    I suspect that long-term disasters like pandemics, earthquakes, volcanoes, meteor strikes, once-a-century floods, and nuclear power maintenance are not fixable by human beings. If the time scale is long enough, people become skeptical at the warnings/preparations and end them.

    The covid-19 pandemic is a perfect example. We had planning that was maintained through multiple U.S. administrations, and then scrapped the year before covid-19 hit by Trump:

    How Trump Gutted Obama’s Pandemic-Preparedness Systems [vanityfair.com]

    Likewise Japan's tsunami-warning stones [smithsonianmag.com]:

    "It takes about three generations for people to forget. Those that experience the disaster themselves pass it to their children and their grandchildren, but then the memory fades," Fumihiko Imamura, a professor in disaster planning at Tohoku University, told the AP

    • by lorinc ( 2470890 )

      We're bad at gambling, but we believe we're good at it. That's also why it's addictive. The probability of the event is low, so you think you can always get through. But the reward when it happens is so abysmally bad that the expectation is negative. So on average, you lose, just like gambling games, but since negative expectation is always counter-intuitive you continue to gamble.

      • I think you're confusing the reward mechanism that the gambling industry uses with our inability to adequately asses low priority high cost events.

        The reward from gambling comes from our ability to forget the minor negative outcomes and focus on the positive events. From a developmental perspective this is a valuable trait because without it we would never get anything done. Unfortunately, for some people the reward for success becomes addictive and their behaviour becomes excessively focussed on receiving

    • by cb88 ( 1410145 )
      Just FYI... you just linked a story from vanity fair, as if it were some sort of legitimate publication. That's nothing but a liberal hit piece, the smoke and mirrors "preparedness" sure was doing it's job wasn't it if then entire stockpile of materials for this sort of situation was expired, and consisted of dry rotted masks falling apart and other nonsense. Frankly the "preparedness" program was just another pork/bureaucracy project that needed to be gutted for wasting money with clearly no results.

      If you
  • Too bad America didn't have industry making N95's for everyone the last year, and telling them to wear it. Now there's more infectious strains, and it didn't have to be hard to get a good mask a year into this mess. Non-essential businesses will continue to take the hit, due to this awful response.

  • by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @04:49PM (#60998728)

    Seriously- normally have 3-4 colds a year.

    No Flu and no colds.

    I'm going to continue wearing a mask when shopping and continue using hand sanitizer.

    My grandmother, who survived the 1918 flu pandemic, always carried a bottle of alcohol and never got sick. She would sterilize doorknobs and her hands after touching things.

    • by cusco ( 717999 )

      My grandfather did something similar, he had a bottle of alcohol that he sterilized his stomach with a every opportunity . . .

  • Living in Europe here. It all started all too reasonable: in order to prevent hospitals not being able to take care of the flood of patients the people were asked to help spread the Corona virus. Gruesome images of dying elderly spread a fear faster than even the virus could keep up with. Now, not one year later I'm locked up in my own appartment with many collegues and friends saying it's for our own good.

    If you haven't already, I sincerely hope you don't fall for the trap. They only way out of this is acc

    • We had the same thing going on here in California, but we discovered an out (at least in the US): get enough signatures to recall your Governor. Magically, the lockdowns are lifted!
      • When will the consequent wave of deaths hit you?
  • It's way too early to worry much about the next pandemic. We've had three in the last 100 years. The first one (Spanish Flu) was the worst, the second not terribly bad (hardly even remembered), this one (the one in the middle) got the publicity.

    If the last century is any guideline, we won't have to worry too much in the 2070-2080 range....

    • by Anonymous Coward
      facepalm! seriously I hope that was posted in jest. If you have 3 pandemics per 100 years then the next one could be tomorrow or in 99 years. They are not evenly spaced for your convenience and you should be expecting it will come sooner rather than later. What worse is we are more vulnerable than ever before. post 1980's global travel and movement has exponentially increased leaving us seriously exposed to any serious pandemic to wreck the world before we can get our shit together.
    • A recent pandemic was H1N1 in ~2009.

    • We dodged a bullet with SARS in ... 2003, wasn't it?

      We dodged another bullet with Ebola in 2015. That was really close to breaking out of west Africa.

      And the astonishing thing is, we invested significant money and effort in teaching the west African states how to contain, how to do test and trace, etc, and showed them from their own recent experience why this was a life-saver

      .

      .

      .

      And we couldn't do it ourselves.

      The health agencies in these "third world" countries are looking at us in astonishment, incr

  • It's panic. All the way down.
  • Why pay attention to anything Bill Gates says?
    He just parrots other smarter people and plays off his name recognition.
    Just like with Microsoft, just absorbed others work, sometimes hired the right people to make it better or prettier and sometimes broke it (but it had the right label so the boss bought it anyway), and sold it off as their own.
    Bill's a twit. He didn't even understand his own marketing strategies until his partners explained it to him and couldn't code his way out of a paper bag.
    The only rea

  • O'll Billy was always good with viruses. The difference with biological viruses is that nobody needs to sit down and create them, it happens all by itself. Viruses and bacteria are pretty good proof that gods do not exist and that life indeed starts up spontaneously.
  • The next pandemic is already here, Billy. It's a pandemic of authoritarian thought suppression, a new Cultural Revolution of the West.

  • Bill Gates now has the opportunity to put his money where his mouth is, he will be able to help with funding of the vaccine for poorer nations, and with the amount of money he has, he won't feel a thing.

  • by avidal ( 5464304 )
    discontinue this shit software you're building for 30 years now, free us from this daily nightmare and I'll take all the vaccines blindly

C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas l'Informatique. -- Bosquet [on seeing the IBM 4341]

Working...