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Medicine United Kingdom

UK Scientists Worry Vaccines May Not Protect Against South African Coronavirus Variant (trust.org) 238

UK scientists have expressed concern that COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out in Britain may not be able to protect against a new variant of the coronavirus that emerged in South Africa and has spread internationally. From a report: Both Britain and South Africa have detected new, more transmissible variants of the COVID-19-causing virus in recent weeks that have driven a surge in cases. British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Monday he was now very worried about the variant identified in South Africa. Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said that while both variants had some new features in common, the one found in South Africa "has a number additional mutations ... which are concerning." He said these included more extensive alterations to a key part of the virus known as the spike protein -- which the virus uses to infect human cells -- and "may make the virus less susceptible to the immune response triggered by the vaccines." Lawrence Young, a virologist and professor of molecular oncology at Warwick University, also noted that the South African variant has "multiple spike mutations."
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UK Scientists Worry Vaccines May Not Protect Against South African Coronavirus Variant

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  • Virus mutated to potentially both resist vaccines and be more virulent. We will all die of old age before lockdowns are over.
    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      The more people who get infected, the greater the chance of new mutations. One of them might make it as lethal as SARS-1. On the other hand, if that did happen, it might scare people enough to actually obey the lockdowns.

      • by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @09:55AM (#60898782)

        Viruses generally mutate to become less lethal (not more), as the evolutionary incentive is not to kill the host so that it can infect others. Paradoxically, a more lethal virus would likely kill fewer people in total. SARS COV-1 didn't kill very many because it was too lethal- people who are dying tend not to walk around and do things that spread it.

        Anyhow, at the moment, we simply have no idea how current vaccines and the South African variant will interact. The good news is that extant vaccines could be tweaked if necessary, similar to how we tweak the flu vaccine annually. It wouldn't surprise me that the next few years require people to get an annual COVID vaccine in the fall along with the flu vaccines.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          Generally, yes. This one here is infectious while people have no symptoms yet and kills late.

          • by puck01 ( 207782 )

            Yes, this is the real dilemma. COVID-19 is very mild for a large portion of the infected. It makes detection and limitation of spread much more difficult.

            Most viruses with a high-ish death rates make everyone quite ill. This one is clearly an exception.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @10:40AM (#60899076)

          No, they don't. Mutations are random. The selective pressure is to spread before you kill (or are killed), that's all. Sometimes that involves being less lethal, sometimes not. Untreated HIV infection is 100% fatal. Rabies too. Cholera is 30-50%. Smallpox 30%.

          • by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @11:03AM (#60899226)

            Which will result in a greater spread: a mutation that is completely asymptomatic and the host walks around contagious for two weeks, or a mutation that makes the host very sick after a few days and puts them in the hospital? The selection pressure is going to be with the mutation that spreads most widely, and making the host very sick is going to reduce spread, even if there is a delay in symptom onset.

            Rabies and HIV are a bit different in that they are spread by bodily fluids. The most lethal diseases tend to use this transmission path (Ebola as well). In Rabies, behavior changes from the disease itself encourage spread. In Ebola, making the host very sick encourages others to interact through treatment. Airborne diseases don't have quite the same incentive structure.

            • Which will result in a greater spread: a mutation that is completely asymptomatic and the host walks around contagious for two weeks, or a mutation that makes the host very sick after a few days and puts them in the hospital?

              A virus doesn't care which has the greater spread. Evolution works only on selecting out mistakes. Unless the virus can put people in hospital before it has a chance to spread to someone else then evolution will not select out the mutation. Selection does not remove mutations until they reach a very specific extreme case, and that's one of the reasons evolution is such a muddled hot mess to get to an end goal also why monkeys still exist despite clearly the evolutionary benefit demonstrated by homo-erectus.

              • Evolution is more than selecting out mistakes. It selects for traits that make it more likely for the organism to reproduce. While a disease with delayed lethality can spread just like a disease with none at all, with COVID, transmission is most likely of the infected person never becomes seriously ill. There should be evolutionary pressure away from lethality as the less lethal strains out-compete the lethal ones.

                Influenza, which mutates fairly rapidly compared to COVID, is a good example of this. The 1918

                • by dryeo ( 100693 )

                  The Spanish flu was quite bad in 1918, but in 1919 was much worse, killing many young people and quite possibly a mutation on the 1918 strain.
                  It has also been responsible for most flu pandemics since and even today, with vaccines, kills quite a few people.

            • by Junta ( 36770 )

              Who says that 'more lethal' means that every carrier gets sidelined almost immediately?

              The mortality could go from say 1% to 2%, but for the other 98% be totally asymptomatic and it would spread like wildfire.

              Even among the newly threatened population, they may still walk around for the similar amount of time before symptoms appear and the sick person ultimately dies.

              Its complicated. Sure the 'ideal' is that a lifeform is completely innocuous and is permitted to replicate freely, but it's not as simple as '

            • Which will result in a greater spread: a mutation that is completely asymptomatic and the host walks around contagious for two weeks, or a mutation that makes the host very sick after a few days and puts them in the hospital?

              In many ways, the virus doesn't give a damn (yes, I'm anthropomorphizing) what happens after a few weeks. If it kills the host or the host develops immunities, there is no difference to the virus. In both scenarios the virus is no longer viable in that host - so evolutionarily it stops making a difference after a few weeks no matter what the patient outcome. If a mutation allows the virus to spread more effectively, it will be favored regardless of whether the host survives.

            • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

              Successive waves of the Spanish flu were more lethal than the first. Smallpox transmission is mostly via respired particles from coughing or sneezing, quite similar to COVID. Pneumonic plague, which can be spread through respired droplets, is even more severe than the bubonic form. Tuberculosis *today* has case fatality rates of > 50% in some places; I couldn't find a good estimate for untreated TB but it was essentially regarded as a death sentence, and before effective treatments were discovered killed

            • a 1% fatality 2 week asymptomatic virus could well mutate into a 3% fatality 2 weeks asymptomatic or 3 week asymptomatic and 1% same fatality. As long as the infection rate stays the same, there is nothing putting pressure on the virus, except our immune system. In the grand scheme of thing 1% or 3% fatality rate would not change much of the spread. If we were speaking of order of magnitude more like 15% then you may have a point. But in the single digit percentage it does not put pressure on the virus : to
        • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

          by nagora ( 177841 )

          Viruses generally mutate to become less lethal (not more), as the evolutionary incentive is not to kill the host so that it can infect others.

          "Evolutionary incentives" are not a thing. If a virus mutates to wipe out the entire population of its hosts then the virus will also die out. Which is not much comfort.

          Evolution has no foresight.

          • Evolution does not reason. What you describe can still happen. Evolution tends to disfavor that happening gradually, but given thay we already have a super-infectious high-latency virus, we're way more than half way there. It only takes a little bit of mutation just to make it more lethal. No need to be "gradual" anymore.

        • If the vaccines need to be "tweaked", I wonder if the United States will require full-blown phase 1/2/3 trials of the new vaccine formulations.
        • by jenningsthecat ( 1525947 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @10:59AM (#60899190)

          Viruses generally mutate to become less lethal (not more), as the evolutionary incentive is not to kill the host so that it can infect others. Paradoxically, a more lethal virus would likely kill fewer people in total.

          We all really need to stop fixating on Covid's lethality and start coming to grips with at least some of [theatlantic.com] the long term effects [theatlantic.com] of Covid-19. I say "at least some of" simply because the list of symptoms reported by Covid "long haulers" [harvard.edu] is frighteningly long - and we aren't even a year into this saga. From some of what I've been reading I'd almost rather die than with live some of the Covid after-effects for a decade or two.

          And while we're on the subject of vaccines not being effective against new variants of the virus - something I've been warning people about almost since this whole thing began - fuck everybody who jumped on the 'herd immunity' bandwagon. Additionally, fuck all of our spineless leaders who didn't have the balls to force strict enough and frequent enough hard lockdowns to stop this thing in its tracks. They've bought short-term gain for long-term pain - and at this point we don't yet know how crippling the pain will be nor how long it will last. We also don't know how severe the economic effects will be of all those people who can't work and need ongoing medical care. But hey - let tomorrow take care of itself, right?

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            Thank you. Even if the chance of me dying from COVID was 0% I would still do everything I can to avoid getting it. The long term effects on a normal person are potentially pretty severe and for someone like me with poorly understood pre-existing health conditions that are known to be triggered by infections there really is no telling how bad it could get.

            For that reason things won't go back to normal for a long time. Even once I'm vaccinated I don't want to take that 1 in 20* chance that I'll get a horrible

            • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

              *1 in 20 if administered properly, the UK government is using the vaccine off-label so nobody knows how effective it will be.

              Everybody is using it off label. Because the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are around 50% effective in single shot - the second shot is effectively a booster shot.

              There is evidence to believe that the reason there is so much variation is not antibodies, but quantity of antibodies - the vaccine works by having antibodies produced that attach itself to the spike protein and effectively nu

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                You are supposed to get 2 shots spaced 4 weeks apart. The UK government has decided to do 2 shots 12 weeks apart, so that it can claim "X million vaccinated" even though most of them have only had one shot and the effectiveness of the second one is unknown.

          • by Rei ( 128717 ) on Wednesday January 06, 2021 @09:08AM (#60902754) Homepage

            . From some of what I've been reading I'd almost rather die than with live some of the Covid after-effects for a decade or two.

            You know, you don't have to resort to hyperbole to make a point. I have a friend with late-stage ALS who can only communicate through an eye tracker and for whom things as mundane as having other people carry him to the bathroom to wash him can potentially kill him due to the risk of lodging mucus plugs in his lungs. And he still very much wants to be alive and gets pissed off at the constant stream of people suggesting in various polite ways that he should have himself euthanized. And you're saying people with "long covid"** (I actually know a couple), which is just a small fraction of people who contract COVID, and of which we have no evidence that it "lasts for decades" at this point but whatever - should want to die, because of symptoms (fatigue, shortness of breath, memory lapses, headaches, coughing, sleep disruptions, etc) that by and large are those of poor lung function (e.g. due to lung damage)? You know that asthmatics also get such symptoms, right? Should they want to die?

            It's very good to point out that COVID is not just about whether you die or whether you live. But we don't need hyperbole here. COVID sucks. Don't get it. That's enough.

            (It's also worth pointing out that influenza sucks too - just not as badly as COVID. I think we as society put too little emphasis in "normal years" on stopping the spread of the flu, treating it as just "normal" and confusing it with mild colds, when for some people it can be severe or fatal. I hope COVID convinces us to do more to stop influenza in the future)

        • by kbahey ( 102895 )

          SARS COV-1 didn't kill very many because it was too lethal- people who are dying tend not to walk around and do things that spread it.

          SARS-CoV did not kill as many people because of a fundamental difference in the disease progression vs. SARS-CoV-2: the infectious phase of the former coincided with being very sick, so people stayed at home, or went to hospitals. That is why many health workers got sick and died.

          SARS-CoV-2 on the other hand has the infectious phase earlier: the virus is multiplying exponenti

        • Viruses generally mutate to become less lethal (not more), as the evolutionary incentive is not to kill the host so that it can infect others.

          That is not at all how evolution works. Evolution doesn't provide incentives, it only culls failed mutations. COVID-19 is no where near lethal enough for evolution to have any selective role in what kind of mutations evolve.

        • or our healthcare system that'll have to deal with them. Current estimates are there'll be around 1 million people with long term health effects from COVID ranging from slightly decreased lung capacity (which'll bite them in the ass when they're 60) to sever brain fog and fatigue.

          The virus doesn't care if you live or die, but it also doesn't care how much suffering you do while you spread it.
        • by Malc ( 1751 )

          Paradoxically, a more lethal virus would likely kill fewer people in total. SARS COV-1 didn't kill very many because it was too lethal- people who are dying tend not to walk around and do things that spread it.

          SARS-COV-1 typically showed symptoms in 2-3 days, and reports of asymptomic cases were much more limited. This plus its aggressiveness made it much easier to identify people with the disease and isolate them. This more than its lethality helped contain and eliminate it.

          A very lethal virus with a lon

      • "On the other hand, if that did happen, it might scare people enough to actually obey the lockdowns."
        You don't seem to realize how stupid people are.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Maybe. I admit I've been pretty shocked that people can just shrug off hundreds of thousands of their countrymen dying gurgling in their own fluids, even denying that it's happening at all.

    • Virus mutated to potentially both resist vaccines and be more virulent. We will all die of old age before lockdowns are over.

      Hmm...rather than lock down the entire world.

      Why don't we isolate and lock down South Africa to contain this new variant?

      • Why don't we isolate and lock down South Africa to contain this new variant?

        Too late for that now.

        ...that emerged in South Africa and has spread internationally...Both Britain and South Africa have detected new, more transmissible variants of the COVID-19...

    • Well, if we get lucky, it'll be long before old age. ;)

      #mmmLovinCovId

    • by taustin ( 171655 )

      We will all die of old age before lockdowns are over.

      That increasingly appears to be the intent, regardless of the status of the pandemic.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @09:51AM (#60898750)
    all this anti-lockdown bullshit because businessmen didn't want to pay the taxes to keep the economy going during lockdowns means we've been letting the virus spread and mutate like crazy. So instead of a proper top/down response from the governments of the developed nations of the world we had a nonsensical and half assed patchwork response.

    Think of it this way, every time somebody says "We can't do that because of the economy" replace "the economy" with "some businessman's yacht money". Try it:

    "We can't lock down to control the virus because of some businessman's yacht money"

    See, makes much more sense.
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by sinij ( 911942 )
      Even if we confiscate everything above 1 million from everyone there would be only enough money to sustain everyone for another year or so. That is, in such scenario we ignore than the act of confiscating money will very likely greatly devalue it. There are just too many people to take care of that we have no choice but to enable at least some of the people to take care of themselves. This means working.

      Your fundamental misunderstanding of basic economic principles leaves you blind that the issue that it
      • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @11:20AM (#60899306)
        think in terms of goods and services. We didn't shut down the economy, we shut down bars & restaurants. Those people are simple value add services. They're not needed for the function of the human race. In short we haven't "lost" anything in terms of real economic output. We've still got plenty of food, shelter, etc.

        You're boxed in on your thinking from years and years of "America, Fuck Yeah!" style economics. Everything has to be solved with the Free Market, even though that market isn't even close to free, never was and never can be. There are no lack of goods, we haven't cut production on anything important. It's a bit hard to get a guitar or a video card right now, but again, food and shelter are plentiful. We could easily pay restaurant & bar workers to stay home for a year (or very likely 3-6 months) while we sort this out and get the vaccine out there.

        There's 2 problems with that. First, businessmen's yacht money. But second (and much more significant) if we display to the world that we can easily pay 1/3rd of the population to not work for 3-6 months people are going to start asking questions. Questions like "It's 2020, why am I still working 50 hours a week for just enough money to get by?".

        And if that happens folks are gonna get out of that "America, Fuck Yeah!" box. They're going to start questioning why the future we were promised (remember that?) never came. Why productivity is way, way up but real wages when taking the Big 3 (healthcare, education, housing) into account are way, way down. Why our lives our so fragile....

        Billions were spend creating the narrative that "we can't afford it" and that 60-70% of the population living 1 paycheck or 1 minor illness from disaster is OK. A proper response to the pandemic would've shattered that.
        • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

          There's 2 problems with that. First, businessmen's yacht money. But second (and much more significant) if we display to the world that we can easily pay 1/3rd of the population to not work for 3-6 months people are going to start asking questions. Questions like "It's 2020, why am I still working 50 hours a week for just enough money to get by?".

          And the answer will of course be so you can contribute enough to carry all those who can't or wont contribute when the government decides they should get a free ride sitting at home for 3 months because of some virus.

          • it's understandable, you've been subjected to propaganda your entire life.

            Think back to when you were little, when you were told the future would be great. A future that wasn't full of drudgery and misery. Start asking yourself why you never got that. Start asking yourself who did. Who's always been the ones with everything.

            I'll close with this: Ayn Rand is not your friend. Atlas can go ahead and shrug. The only thing he's holding up is progress.
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by sinij ( 911942 )

          We didn't shut down the economy, we shut down bars & restaurants.

          Where I live, we also shut down gyms, all shops except for food, hairdressers, any kind of entertainment venue. Such shut down means that whole sectors of the economy are shut down and other sectors of economy that depend on these are partially shut down.

          What you suggest, while sounds feel-good is a childish fantasy based on lack of understanding just how interconnected economy is. If you could just pay people to do nothing by printing money, why then in places that tried to do just that, like Venezuela

          • because the media outlets you subscribe to want you to assume that so they can get you back to work (and consumption) before it's safe and without paying people to say home.

            As for printing money, go for it. You can print as much money as you want up to your economy's ability to absorb it. When is that? Well it's a function of how much real, actual goods you economy can produce. If you print more than your economy can produce with the productivity you got then you get hyper inflation.

            We are nowhere's
        • In short we haven't "lost" anything in terms of real economic output.

          You have a very flawed understanding of economic output.

          • I make my own pizzas now instead of ordering them. It doesn't impact my ability to work. I'm not less productive making 1 or 2 pizzas a week when I used to buy them. But our entire economy is on the brink of collapse because I refuse to risk my health going out for pizza. That shouldn't be. Let the guy making my pizza stay home. Pay him to do so. Then when this mess clears up in a few months (it'll take that long because we didn't do it right the first time) I'll go back to buying pizzas.

            Maybe... The lo
      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        If you want to save the economy you need short but hard lockdowns and then a really, really effective testing and contact tracing system. Get it under control, then keep it under control.

    • all this anti-lockdown bullshit because businessmen didn't want to pay the taxes to keep the economy going during lockdowns means we've been letting the virus spread and mutate like crazy.

      Try and remember that portions of our economy are essential for human survival. Paying taxes was not the driving factor behind keeping food production going. Or hospitals, law enforcement, prisons, military, etc.

      And in the beginning we tried to define "essential" personnel to limit the spread. That was quickly corrupted and ignored by our very leaders.

    • businessmen didn't want to pay the taxes to keep the economy going during lockdowns

      How would you tax a business that is not running during a lockdown? Taxes are based on profit/income made by running your business.

      • by sinij ( 911942 )
        You can't, so every government from municipal to federal is currently running huge deficits. This means that they will have to raise taxes and/or do layoffs. At federal level you can print money, but this results in inflation - as the size of monetary supply outgrows the size of goods and services and you have to offer more money for goods and service. Inflation means that anyone with savings loses purchasing power. It also means that interest rates will go up, meaning your fixed assets like house will go d
    • "We can't lock down to control the virus because of some businessman's yacht money"

      OTOH, they prefer to keep yachting, where they're less likely to catch the virus.

  • by BAReFO0t ( 6240524 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @10:42AM (#60899100)

    We can still prevent the massive extinction event, by curing is from the planetary pathpgen called ... humanity?

    Signed,

    literally all the animals and plants and fungi and single-cellers of the planet.

    • Wait! We love humanity! Don't go!

      Signed,
      Cockroaches, pigeons, and squirrels

    • I've heard this horseshit for fifty plus years now and never once have I heard of people espousing it **leading the way** to human extinction.

      Short response to those promoting it - You first.
  • Wasn't the zombie plague in World War Z (the book, not that godawful movie) originally called South African Rabies, but also originated in China?

    • Wasn't the zombie plague in World War Z (the book, not that godawful movie) originally called South African Rabies, but also originated in China?

      No, the lockdown plan that turned the zombie spread from unstoppable to manageable was called the South African Plan. It was based on an actual South African government plan from Apartheid days.

    • yes, it was nicknamed south african rabies, IIRC because that's where the first big outbreak was.

  • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @11:53AM (#60899472) Homepage Journal

    when it comes to epidemics, finding someone to throw under the bus doesn't work.

    I worked for many years as a software vendor in the public health field; I even was once at the CDC Fort Collins center when they were scrambling a team to investigate an outbreak of a hemorrhagic fever in Africa. The strategy was the same one used in the War on Terror -- fight it over there so you don't have to fight it over here.

    But in the past four years preemptive international public health efforts have been seen as a kind of foreign aid give-away, and US readiness has suffered. It probably didn't make any difference in *this* case, but COVID-19 isn't the end of that story. It's just one chapter.

    • We are all looking at outbreaks differently from now on now that we have experienced it first hand across the world. Well, most people at least I'd say.

      But it's also not about "throwing people under the bus". It's about acting responsibly and making sure that people do. When we here in the UK found a new mutation did we spread the news of it and didn't first wait until every single last researcher agreed with the findings despite some initial scepticism.

      And one can blame us for having created this new mutat

  • by Joe2020 ( 6760092 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @12:25PM (#60899676)

    The face masks that I bought for Christmas with happy, festive motives will find another use this year. Guess they'll go into the same box as the Christmas lights.

  • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @01:59PM (#60900100) Journal

    Initially it was thought mutations would be low for this type of virus, but if that turns out incorrect and it mutates faster than vaccines can keep up, there will be pressure to give up on social isolation and let it circulate for "Darwin" to sort out.

    It will be considered worth the trade-off to let 2% or so die so that normal life can continue on for the 97% (assuming 1% have problematic side effects.)

    I'm not saying whether I agree with that philosophy, but the political pressure will build.

  • I just saw this report on Reuters South African variant unlikely to 'completely negate' COVID vaccines, scientist says [reuters.com]

    British scientists expressed concern on Monday that COVID-19 vaccines may not be able to protect against the variant identified by South African scientists and which has spread internationally. Richard Lessells, an infectious disease expert at the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform, which played a central role in identifying the variant known as 501Y.V2, said his unde

  • This is precisely why the non-pharma people have advocated for conserved-region vaccines. Once we understood that many people got a mild case because they'd previously had common-cold betacoronaviruses and the immune system responded to the parts of the virus that were the same ("conserved regions") then the smart thing to do, around March, was to develop a traditional vaccine using a common-cold betacoronavirus with existing technology. This could have been done by September.

    But no, whiz-bang mRNA experi

    • uh no. Bill.
      We have already developed these vaccines the fastest that ANY HAVE EVERY BEEN DEVELOPED AND TESTED.
      The mRNA took the same length of time as regular vaccines, but only because a lot of new development had to happen.
      For the next time a vaccine is needed, we are likely looking at 3-6 months from time of isolation and that is still with fast testing.
      And BTW, almost all of the other vaccines ARE being developed exactly as you suggest; using genetic engineering on established virus, but these h
  • I hope you all know that this Covid thing is never going away ...

  • The spread of the UK variant was FAST and odd. We have it in Colorado on a person that had not traveled. We still have not found the vector that infected him, which is VERY odd.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts." -- Bertrand Russell

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