The Best Way To Win a Horse Race? Mathematicians May Have the Answer (sciencemag.org) 52
sciencehabit summarizes a new article from Science magazine:
Attention racehorse jockeys: Start fast, but save enough energy for a final kick. That's the ideal strategy to win short-distance horse races, according to the first mathematical model to calculate how horses use up energy in races. The researchers say the approach could be used to identify customized pacing plans that, in theory, would optimize individual horses' chances of winning.
The team took advantage of a new GPS tracking tool embedded in French racing saddles. The trackers let fans watch digital images of the horses move across a screen, and they gave the researchers real-time speed and position data. The scientists studied patterns in dozens of races at the Chantilly racetracks north of Paris and developed a model that accounted for winning strategies for three different races: a short one (1300 meters), a medium one (1900 meters), and a slightly longer one (2100 meters), all with different starting points on the same curved track. The model takes into account not just different race distances, but also the size and bend of track curves, and any slopes or friction from the track surface.
The results might surprise jockeys who hold horses back early for bursts of energy in the last furlough. Instead, a strong start leads to a better finish, the team found. That doesn't mean those jockeys are wrong, though. Too strong of a start can be devastating as well, leaving the horse 'exhausted by the end,' one of the researchers says.
Even so, "We can't truly model performance," argues a veterinarian at the University of Sydney with over 30 years of experience working at horse racetracks. But he also asks Science, "Do we really want to?
"For people who love horse racing, the uncertainty provides the excitement, and the actual running of the horses provides the spectacle and the beauty."
The team took advantage of a new GPS tracking tool embedded in French racing saddles. The trackers let fans watch digital images of the horses move across a screen, and they gave the researchers real-time speed and position data. The scientists studied patterns in dozens of races at the Chantilly racetracks north of Paris and developed a model that accounted for winning strategies for three different races: a short one (1300 meters), a medium one (1900 meters), and a slightly longer one (2100 meters), all with different starting points on the same curved track. The model takes into account not just different race distances, but also the size and bend of track curves, and any slopes or friction from the track surface.
The results might surprise jockeys who hold horses back early for bursts of energy in the last furlough. Instead, a strong start leads to a better finish, the team found. That doesn't mean those jockeys are wrong, though. Too strong of a start can be devastating as well, leaving the horse 'exhausted by the end,' one of the researchers says.
Even so, "We can't truly model performance," argues a veterinarian at the University of Sydney with over 30 years of experience working at horse racetracks. But he also asks Science, "Do we really want to?
"For people who love horse racing, the uncertainty provides the excitement, and the actual running of the horses provides the spectacle and the beauty."
How the world works (Score:2)
Re: How the world works (Score:4, Insightful)
Even better is to be a government, collecting a tax on every win, every wage, and on the property itself.
Re: How the world works (Score:2)
But you ARE the governent.
Unless you don't live in a democracy.
And you are always free to not use any roads or sewers or firefighters or military or food safety if you don't want to pay for it.
Re: (Score:1)
I see, your problem is with basic comprehension. I never claimed that a "person is a Parliament".
In any case I suspect you're just playing dumb to waste my time. This will be highlighted by your insulting and incorrect response to this post too. But hey, I guess we all have our kinks, right?
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Even better is to be this guy [youtu.be] and collect a little bit -- time, energy, attention -- from every activity entirely.
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It's unlikely to be via a furlough, no matter how short you make it.
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"The best way to win horse races is to be the book maker"
The horse poisoner isn't bad either.
The first rule to winning a horse race (Score:1)
is to bet on a horse.
Re: (Score:2)
Ummm... (Score:3)
The first rule to winning in a horse race is to bet on a horse.
Betting on a horse won't win you or lose you any races at all. It'll only win or lose bets.
You know how races work, right? Animals run on a track.
Makes sense (Score:2)
If you start poorly you’ll need to navigate through the pack later, wasting time and energy in your efforts to do so. By starting strong, but not too strong, you decrease the number of horses you’ll need to pass later and will also have had some time to recover so that you can make that final push.
Re: Makes sense (Score:2)
So the old rule that "You don't have to be faster than the tiger. Only faster than the others." Slightly modified.
Re: (Score:2)
Sure, it makes perfect sense. Such perfect sense that this is what jockeys have been doing forever. Every jockey in the world knows the key to winning is reining in just enough and starting the final run at just the right moment. That's what being a jockey is. Mathematical studies recapitulating what the racing world has known for literal millennia doesn't do anyone any good. This wasn't a researching adding anything new. This was a researcher auditioning for funding to people who don't know any bette
Re: Makes sense (Score:2)
Re: Makes sense (Score:2)
You completely missed the entire point.
The point is not about saving energy for the end,
but still about investing energy to get in front of others early as it will save you more.
First mathematical model? (Score:2)
So based on perfectly spherical horses on a sinusoidal trajectory?
The last... (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
Furlong, furlough, furget about it...
Re: The last... (Score:2)
Get out of here, you furries! ;)
Re: A horse walks into a bar. (Score:4, Funny)
The horse answers: Cause that joke is so old.
Motion Studies and Wagers (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
There may be some horse psychology at work (Score:2)
Re: There may be some horse psychology at work (Score:2)
Nah, I think that guy above gotnit right: Overtaking after the horses have formed a pack takes way more energy than getting in front in the first place
But psychology-wise: It may be demotivating to everyone ele too.
Re:There may be some horse psychology at work (Score:5, Interesting)
I think it's about energy management; that's what it's about for bike racers.
There are three systems used to power muscles:
(1) Phosphagen -- provides huge amounts of energy for up to about 10 seconds
(2) Anaerobic glycolysis -- provides large amounts of energy for 2-3 minutes
(3) Aerobic glycolysis -- provides small amounts of energy for hours on end.
These systems use different muscle tissues whose resources your body strives to replenish, even as you are drawing them down.
Bike racers try to use enough energy to drop weaker riders while maintaining enough energy to keep up with stronger riders. You ride in a pack to maintain a high base pace without depleting your aerobic reserves. From time to time there are breakaways that try to establish a new smaller lead pack. Riders who find themselves back in the main peloton can't catch up with the leaders without exhausting one of their energy resources and being forced to slow down.
This process repeats itself until there's a tiny lead pack, sometimes only two, who are both cooperating with each other and competing with each other. They'll take turns leading, which is energetically unfavorable, in order to solidify their lead over the trailing pack, but some time within five minutes of the finish line this will break down into a sprint. Sometimes within sight of the finish line the trailing rider puts on a burst of speed; they're already riding at full anaerobic pace, so it comes down to who has the most creatine phosphate left in the tank.
It seems likely that the similar considerations apply to horse racing, where there are also last second come from behind finishes. It's not enough to ride the horse as hard as it can go, you've got to manage the energy so you put most of the horses behind you while leaving enough to win a sprint in the last five seconds or so against horses you couldn't drop.
Mod parent up ...Informative (Score:2)
Mod parent up ...Informative!
Is it? (Score:1)
Start fast, but save enough energy for a final kick. That's the ideal strategy to win short-distance horse races, according toÂthe first mathematical model to calculate how horses use up energyÂin races.
Is that how to win? Or simply how the best horses tend to run? It's similar to human runners. It used to be believed that you run long distances faster on your toes rather than landing on you heel. Other than when sprinting, most people can't do this for long distances. But it's more likely that elite runners are simply able to maintain higher speeds for much longer periods than the average person. So they are able to say on their toes much longer.
The best way for a jockey to win is to be riding Man o' Wa
Re: (Score:2)
It used to be believed that you run long distances faster on your toes rather than landing on you heel. Other than when sprinting, most people can't do this for long distances. But it's more likely that elite runners are simply able to maintain higher speeds for much longer periods than the average person. So they are able to say on their toes much longer.
Or is it the other way around? Those that have trained and conditioned themselves to run on their toes can run more efficiently and conserve more energy for a sprint. Now I'm no runner (too short, old, fat, stubby legs) but I taught myself to run on my toes (if you want to call what I do running) and I can do that for miles.
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Or is it the other way around?
The prevailing thought for many years was that running on your toes made you faster. But everything I've read in the last ten years seems to contradict that.
Those that have trained and conditioned themselves to run on their toes can run more efficiently and conserve more energy for a sprint.
I don't think you are conserving any more energy. Just using different muscle groups to burn the energy. Very few marathon runners can maintain running like that for the entire race. If it conserved energy then more people would be doing it.
Now I'm no runner (too short, old, fat, stubby legs) but I taught myself to run on my toes (if you want to call what I do running) and I can do that for miles.
I was never built for distance running. I was 6'1", but am shorter than that now, but I've always had short leg
Re: (Score:2)
The best way for a jockey to win is to be riding Man o' War. Even if you're not into horse racing it's worth reading about him. He had an incredibly long stride length that was between 25 and 28 feet. He was never pushed and was mostly held back in most of his races. The only race that he was allowed to run as fast as he wanted to he won by 100 lengths. He won 20 of his 21 races and placed in that race due the race starting before he was facing the right direction.
Thanks for this. I would have assumed Secretariat was the horse to be riding, but after reading several comparisons, it appears that you are probably correct. Secretariat actually lost 5 out of 21 races. Man O' War may have had nearly a 10% stride advantage. Man O' War ran with unheard of handicap weights and steel shoes vs aluminum for Secretariat, so Secretariat's better track times are misleading.
Oh My... (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
nags (Score:2)
My grandfather from Sicily who had a third-grade education had a great system for playing the trotters. It was surprisingly complicated. You wouldn't hit huge scores, but you could consistently leave the track with $50 to two hundred more than you came in with. He taught me how to do it and I spent a lot of time during summers in college at Sportsman's or Maywood. The system did not work on the thoroughbreds at Arlington, it was only for harness racing.
Attention racehorse jockeys: (Score:2)
"Attention racehorse jockeys: Start fast, but save enough energy for a final kick. That's the ideal strategy to win short-distance horse races"
Nah... sure? I bet no jockey ever would have thought of that.
Secretariat (Score:2)
If anyone can remember the horse named Secretariat, to which there also was a movie https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1... [imdb.com] It had an astonishing performance. When the horse died did they cut it open and found it had a heart about 2.6 times the weight of an average horse!
While there was never any research done specific to this phenomenon, other than it being an inherited trait from a previous race horse, is it assumed that it was the deciding factor for its performance, because a big heart helps with the oxygen c
Re: (Score:2)
When the horse died did they cut it open and found it had a heart about 2.6 times the weight of an average horse!
Dang that's gotta be a couple tons at least
Re: (Score:2)
The weight reference was the entire duration of the sentence on the weight of a horse's heart and it cannot be "a couple tons". So how did you miss this?!?
When you think, even just as a joke, that I meant the horse's heart was about 2.6 times the weight of the weight of an entire horse then your attention to detail doesn't last even for one, single sentence. This is worrying and it should worry you, too. Why? Either your attention span is extremely short, or, you're a very slow reader, possibly taking break
Uh, they just did model performance (Score:2)
"We can't truly model performance," argues a veterinarian...
Dude, they just did. What a stupid quote to put at the end of the article.
The best way (Score:2)
..is to reach the end of the race first.
It doesn't matter if have have a good start or a good middle.
Overthinking it. (Score:1)
Simply modeling performance curves in no way removes the element of luck and skill from the sport.
It simply provides another avenue in which to optimize performance and to hopefully understand how the horses are/should be utilized and suggest ways to protect them from such a performance model.
Logic Puzzle (Score:2)
I read this logic puzzle when I was a kid. The wording here is of my own.
3 horsemen decided that they were tired of races where the first horse passing the finish line wins. So they decided to form another race: one which the last horse passing the finish line would win. They passed flyers announcing their new race and come race day, an enthusiastic crowd had gathered to watch the race.
The horsemen got on their horses and started to troddle through the course. The pace was painfully slow, to the point t