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Science

WHO Says Would be 'Highly Speculative' To Say COVID Did Not Emerge in China (reuters.com) 204

The World Health Organization's top emergency expert said on Friday it would be "highly speculative" for the WHO to say the coronavirus did not emerge in China, where it was first identified in a food market in December last year. From a report: China is pushing a narrative via state media that the virus existed abroad before it was discovered in the central city of Wuhan, citing the presence of coronavirus on imported frozen food packaging and scientific papers claiming it had been circulating in Europe last year. "I think it's highly speculative for us to say that the disease did not emerge in China," Mike Ryan said at a virtual briefing in Geneva after being asked if COVID-19 could have first emerged outside China. "It is clear from a public health perspective that you start your investigations where the human cases first emerged," he added, saying that evidence might then lead to other places.
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WHO Says Would be 'Highly Speculative' To Say COVID Did Not Emerge in China

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  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Friday November 27, 2020 @03:22PM (#60771068)

    In Northern Italy, 500.000 Chinese workers make 'Italian' fashion for Chinese wages and they travel back and forth all the time.

    • Re:Pronta Moda China (Score:5, Informative)

      by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @03:59PM (#60771140)

      310,000 Chinese live in Italy [theguardian.com], most of which work for the textile industry there. I was unaware of this until now.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      That seems unlikely, if they were working for such low wages in a relatively expensive country like Italy then how would they afford pricey airfares back and forth to China all the time? A quick search suggests â600-700 for a return flight.

      And why wouldn't locals take those jobs? Apparently the pay is good enough to afford international air fares.

      • Maybe youâ(TM)re in the wrong place? I got dirt cheap flights to Melbourne when I was living in Shanghai at a fraction of the price available with western travel agents. Further more, donâ(TM)t expect these people to be living with the same costs as you expect: they might be more experienced and more prepared than you to be very thrifty. Iâ(TM)m talking from experience. Italyâ(TM)s pretty damned cheap too if you get away from American tourist places

        • Because the airport fees are lower in Asia/Pacific area.

          I can fly cheeper from Bangkok to Tokyo than the landing fee in Paris is from BKK.

          ItalyÃ(TM)s pretty damned cheap too if you get away from American tourist places
          That was at Lira times. Now we have 2020, sorry: you are living in the past. (And textile companies are ot in cheap areas anyway).

      • These are chartered flights by the industryâ"they are not paying retail.

        Reportedly some of them work three weeks then fly back for a week off, then come back. The first CoVID-19 case in Italy was a shoe factory worker from Wuhan (again, according to reports).

        • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

          These are chartered flights by the industryâ"they are not paying retail.

          Reportedly some of them work three weeks then fly back for a week off, then come back.

          That would still be very expensive, so it seems unlikely.

      • You think these people organise their own trips back and forward?
        You think they just turn up at the door of sweatshops and ask for a job?
        This is the face of modern wage slaves - these people are moved en-mass, and work in Italy in Chinese conditions so that the products are 'made' in the EU, and hence get much better access to markets, and a higher perceived value.

        And they are not working a month or so between 'trips home', they are worked until burnt out, then sent home.

        This is globalism at its best - maxi

    • No, they don't.
      They make it for low level Italian wages ... no idea why you are so stupid so often.
      If you work in Europe you have to pay taxes, health care, pension etc.
      Do you really think for a "Chinese Wage" someone is working "illegally" in Europe and flies back and forth from his home country?
      How should that be possible on that scale?

    • So, they can easily catch the virus in Italy and take it to China.

    • by Aighearach ( 97333 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @10:32PM (#60771998)

      In Northern Italy, 500.000 Chinese workers

      You don't really need precision to thousandths, I think they only use whole Chinamen in Italy.

  • When the check clears I'm sure The WHO will switch to saying "the origins of COVID-19 are cast in doubt and it'd be speculative to claim it emerged in China. We'll likely never know where or how it originated, but the important thing is you don't know how to do time-based searches on Google regarding this topic. Just like how you shouldn't search for the conditions we made with China in March to allow our epidemiologists to finally access the Hubei province, nor what we said before."
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 )

      When the check clears

      China's contribution to the WHO is less than half of the USA's. Your Trump conspiracy bullshit is better left to morons retweeting on Twitter. Or maybe the WHO just hates you and Trump. Yeah that's actually quite likely.

      • Yeah, and perhaps this article shows the USA's cheque has just cleared?... or is about to...or they just would like one to be sent in the first place... or something.

        Basically, the whole "cheque" angle is nonsense.

    • by labnet ( 457441 )

      And let Australia serve as an example, that when you question the CCP, we will rain down economic hardship in the Billions.

      • ... Well, I'm sure there's a deal in the works from the USA to compensate - that's what I assumed anyway, much like the UK. Otherwise, well, your government is stupid...which doesn't preclude the UK government from being stupid for other reasons.

  • So much for China stating they will be more open about future viruses.

    Seems everyone wants to say/do the exact opposite of what reputable scientists say. Now China will probably hide all new diseases as the emerge.

    Overwhelming evidence points to Covid-19 emerged in China, and as further proof China forced the CDC people to leave around the time it started emerging. Of course the US President threw gas on the fire also by shaming China through the whole period.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by gravewax ( 4772409 )
      Well given there is now evidence it was circulating in Europe last year their claims are completely without merit. It still doesn't mean it didn't come from china, but if it did it is looking increasingly likely it did not start in that Nov/dec timeframe.
      • Can you cite any reputable sources to back up this claim Mr Trump?

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        The oldest virus samples are found in sewage water in north Italy from September 2019.
        However it is still plausible it originated in China.

        Bottom line it does not matter where it originated. The outbreak in China was managed badly, that is the real problem.

  • by Mr. Dollar Ton ( 5495648 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @03:59PM (#60771138)

    "where did the virus came from" BS, except for the people who have legitimate scientific interest.

    The fact is that the epidemic spread out of control not because of China, but because of the many "developed" countries, who chose "the economy" over public health and in the process harmed both.

    There are many examples, from poor developing to very developed countries, who rapidly introduced sensible measures and managed to contain the outbreak at home.

    Those who did not have nobody to blame but themselves, the virus origin notwithstanding.

    • by deKernel ( 65640 )

      Way to be not on top there. The discussion is about the origins, but hey, just ramble on.

      • 99% of the people who want to know where the virus came from are not scientists and have no interest in actually preventing this from happening again. They're not looking for a blameless retrospective which would allow us to make changes to reduce the risk of this happening again and there's barely an acknowledgement that it could have started anywhere. These people often want a country that can be blamed for killing millions. Any discussion and research about it is contaminated by that interest group, this

    • by labnet ( 457441 )

      But if came from a lab through negligence, then the world would the right to claim some compensation from China.

    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @07:06PM (#60771640)

      The fact is that the epidemic spread out of control not because of China, but because of the many "developed" countries, who chose "the economy" over public health and in the process harmed both.

      There are many examples, from poor developing to very developed countries, who rapidly introduced sensible measures and managed to contain the outbreak at home.

      It did not spread because developed countries chose "the economy" over public health. It spread because developed countries do not micromanage their citizens' movements, and aren't able to flip a switch to instantly stop their citizens from traveling internationally or moving around domestically like China can. They operate on the premise that people are free to move around and do whatever they want, until proven otherwise. Rather than the premise that people should only be allowed to move around and do things when the government gives them permission. The developed countries which have managed to prevent or at least control the virus's spread - New Zealand, Iceland, South Korea, and (initially) Japan - are all islands or essentially an island (South Korea). So they effectively did have a single switch they could flip, in the form of shutting off air and sea travel. That allowed their governments to isolate themselves from the rest of the world with minimal infringement on their citizens' freedoms.

      Your assertion is the flip side of the ridiculous arguments always made every time the government does impose strict measures and it turns out to be a false alarm. (e.g. The massive evacuations ahead of Hurricane Dorian, before it changed direction and just skirted the U.S. coast instead of making landfall.) These decisions aren't made knowing for certain what's going to happen. All we have to go on is speculative probability - a best guess as to what's most likely to happen. Sometimes we will err on the over-cautious side, sometimes we will err on the under-cautious side. We will almost never get it exactly right, and those blaming others for failing to get it right are usually operating with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. If you truly knew this would become a global pandemic back in November 2019, please provide a link to your posts warning us and pleading with everyone to shut down travel and commerce and prepare. (FWIW, I did think this had a good chance to go global when a friend joked to me about the "new flu virus in China" last December. But I knew that was speculation on my part so I just cautioned him not to think this virus was a joke, and that he should prepare just in case.)

      • by Mr. Dollar Ton ( 5495648 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @10:42PM (#60772012)

        It did not spread because developed countries chose "the economy" over public health.

        But yes, it did, and yes you're lying. There was significant opposition against any measures in February and March, and even after the covid-19 spread numbers increased drastically and in places people started dying in large numbers, many business associations still pushed successfully for delay of lockdowns, restrictions, mask wearing and basically any other measure.

        It is so well-documented, that it is beyond dispute without using alternative facts.

        The developed countries which have managed to prevent or at least control the virus's spread - New Zealand, Iceland, South Korea, and (initially) Japan - are all islands or essentially an island (South Korea).

        Yep, we've gone to rationalizing away the lack of measures, but you obviously don't travel too much internationally and have no idea how shit looks. Let me give you an example of the difference, because explaining measures, level of preparedness and how the proximity to China and the population densities more than negate the "island" effects you're speculating about.

        I traveled to Japan in January 2020, and to Italy in early February.

        In Japan, just like every other fucking time, I was screened at the airport and had to fill out a medical declaration. That is matched to my passport, stored somewhere and used when needed. Most people on the public transportation and venues were wearing masks already, because their government has asked them to do. Sanitizers, etc. have been available in Japan for ages, and yep, they were already out.

        In Italy, where I wore a mask because it was obvious where the thing was going, I was openly laughed at. Even workers in very high-risk areas, like stations and airports didn't have them. When I left Italy two weeks later, still with the mask on, nobody was laughing, but most masks were still worn on the chin or not at all by airport and public transportation employees, and were never seen elsewhere.

        Even when it became clear that the country will impose restrictions, and the Italians went on a shopping spree before the lockdown, there were practically no people using protection.

        Basically, Europe and US refused measures because they wrongly believe disease isn't a threat to them because of some perceived "superiority". When that didn't materialize, we got the China blame.

        Well, sorry, but actions - and lack thereof - have consequences.

        Your assertion is the flip side of the ridiculous arguments always made every time the government does impose strict measures and it turns out to be a false alarm.

        No, it isn't. My assertion that measures were vastly inadequate and that lead to the enormous spread of the virus are well supported by evidence.

      • by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

        New Zealand, Iceland, South Korea, and (initially) Japan - are all islands or essentially an island (South Korea).

        Greece? Estonia? Denmark? None of those are islands and also have low death rates overall. Not as low as Japan. Put it this way, Denmark and Belgium have similar percapita GDPs but very different rates of death. Greece has borders with several other countries but didn't do so badly.

      • It is not pointless
        Australia is an island, but within are separate states which have closed borders and done lockdowns to successfully stop transmission.
        If citizens care so little for their neighbours and their own lives, carry on as usual.
        It only takes one uncaring idiot to restart the spread of this virulent disease.
        The borders are opening for xmas holidays which will test our ability to walk and chew gum at the same time.

        If you feel sick, isolate and get tested.

  • Recall has biases (Score:2, Informative)

    by buravirgil ( 137856 )
    All through February and into March, until Italy, what China was hiding and what animals likely enabled a cross over into human populations was a frequent speculation on Slashdot. By the end of March, the fatality count of 3000 was tragic, but frequently compared to prior SARS outbreaks.

    Such "scientific" observation was accompanied by other, more politicized comments to condemn the emerging photos of the enforcement of a mandatory quarantine in Wuhan and its closest, smaller cities. Many comments implied
    • I donâ(TM)t think Bojo the Clown pushed herd immunity or warmer weather. I donâ(TM)t think he did much at all beyond celebrating a landslide general election win and getting Brexit done.

  • by jddj ( 1085169 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @04:21PM (#60771186) Journal

    I'm certain Townshend would disagree...

  • by Joe2020 ( 6760092 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @04:29PM (#60771210)

    Terry Pratchett once wrote, "A lie can travel around the world before the truth has got its boots on."

    His message now reads like a prophecy when one replaces "lie" with "virus".

    • by jemmyw ( 624065 )
      As much as I love Terry Pratchett, that quote he used is far older. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/07/13/truth/
  • by HiThere ( 15173 ) <[ten.knilhtrae] [ta] [nsxihselrahc]> on Friday November 27, 2020 @04:39PM (#60771242)

    The virus had clearly been circulating among people long before it acquired the mutations that allow it to spread wildly. One reason to believe this is the large number of people with mild reactions. A newly arrived virus generally has an extremely strong reaction. The recent "avian flu" is a good example.

    As to *where* it was spreading, this gets speculative. My guess would be among the populace that lived in villages near the various bat caves. And many of those are in China.

    It's important to remember that if you don't know what you're looking for, most serious cases of COVID look like pneumonia. So it could circulate for a long time without being noticed...until it picked up a mutation that allowed it to spread much more readily.

    So it's quite reasonable to believe that an early version of COVID was being imported (and exported) from China fairly early last year. This doesn't pin-point the origin, even to the continent, but China looks like the most probable location. Nearly certainly China was the location where the crucial mutation happened. It's not clear that it was the Wuhan market, that's just as far back as we've been able to trace it, but people from a wide area of the country met there. My guess is that the crucial mutation happened somewhere in the Chinese countryside, and that the doctors there didn't notice it. (Remember that the virus doesn't spread as well in low density populations that are largely immobile.) Some merchant caught it and brought it to the Wuhan market, and there shared it will his customers and business associates.

    That said, there's strong presumptive evidence that a version of it was circulating in Europe in August of 2019. This is from analysis of sewage, so it's not able to point to a specific source. And the RNA was degraded, so it's not possible to say it was the same as the current version. My guess is that it was an ancestral version that lacked a crucial facilitator of spreading.

    OTOH, I am not a virologist. This is based on various news reports and a rather basic understanding of evolution. (I read and understood "The Extended Phenotype" and various other similar works...but that's where it rests.)

    • The issue is that the natural reservoir for the virus is supposedly a bat whose habitat spreads across all of S. China, SE Asia and S. Asia. It goes as far as Sri Lanka. Many of these parts of the world also see the bat as a potential food source, or go around digging in the caves for the guano (e.g. https://www.fauna-flora.org/ne... [fauna-flora.org]), so interaction is plenty. They are also a large source where the pangolin trade occurs. SE and S Asia apparently haven't been hit as hard by the virus despite being much

      • That's an interesting theory but hard to prove - these nations aren't testing at the same rates. This might be in large part due to access to health care
    • Mod up. I read somewhere that Corona like mutations have been circulating in China for the last 10 years, and remote Chinese worker had became sick (presume mildly). That the Chinese did the right thing, and gave these samples to WHO - but nobody cared- then. So maybe on the 11th mutation it really took off. What did that Chinese doctor who blew the whistle say, before he died... Then we have the Mink and ferrets get it too known. We know from Singapore, intense factory bunk bedding / long hours also helps
  • The guy that asked the question was dumb to begin with. Who gives a damn about the answer provided by WHO/China.
  • Ones who stay bought.

    ...laura

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • True. The evidence of "negligence, incompetence or malice" in the U.S. came after China had identified the virus and warned the world, and was engaged on a much larger scale than anything going on in China.

      If only the U.S. had reacted as cogently and effectively as China, we could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. At least China saved their own people. America was too preoccupied with beating China at trade to save any of their own people from a disease.

  • As far as politics, I don't care at all where the virus started. There is no evidence it was released intentionally, and so why does it matter?

    I DO care very much though about how the disease has progressed. There are a number of surprising things:

    Sever bits of evidence ( but not conclusive I think) that COVID was circulating in various populations for months before the out break occurred. This is VERY strange since it seems to have a doubling time of only about 3 days if no precautions are taken. It sh

  • by hAckz0r ( 989977 ) on Friday November 27, 2020 @09:05PM (#60771862)

    In 2013 one cave in china was home to 6 species of bats which combined had 292 different strains of corona virus collectivly among them. All portions of the current COVID-19 virus existed in those samples with one exception, the critical ACE-2 receptor binding "spike" protein. But it just so happens that some of those same bat species like to co-inhabit the same tree cavities that the pangolins in that area inhabit. Why is this relevant? Because bats do not have the same ACE-2 receptor bindings as humans, and the pangolin has them almost exactly the same as us humans. If the pangolins were to be bathed in bat excrement containing many types of corona virus then it was only a matter of time before the RNA was mixed within one unfortunate pangolin and out popped a new hybrid virus capable of attacking the ACE-2 receptor thus making that new virus able to bridge the evolutionary gap to humans. The last step of actually infecting humans is the fact that humans there often seek out, kill, and eat pangolins. It only takes one infected animal to spread this new virus amongst lots of different animals within that meat market. Its self perpetuating. With lots of people handling lots of caged animals, all sick with virus, it is only a matter of time before a person with a weakened immune system gets sick and that virus then has the opportunity to mutate to become much better adapted to humans. Its a natural progression where evolution does exactly what it does best. It adapts.

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