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Earth Science

Earth Barreling Toward 'Hothouse' State Not Seen In 50 Million Years, Epic New Climate Record Shows (livescience.com) 228

[I]n a new study published in the journal Science, researchers have analyzed the chemical elements in thousands of foram samples and found that Earth is barreling toward a hothouse state not seen in 50 million years. Live Science reports: The new paper, which comprises decades of deep-ocean drilling missions into a single record, details Earth's climate swings across the entire Cenozoic era -- the 66 million-year period that began with the death of the dinosaurs and extends to the present epoch of human-induced climate change. The results show how Earth transitioned through four distinct climate states -- dubbed the Warmhouse, Hothouse, Coolhouse and Icehouse states -- in response to changes in the planet's orbit, greenhouse gas levels and the extent of polar ice sheets.

The zig-zagging chart (shown above) ends with a sobering peak. According to the researchers, the current pace of anthropogenic global warming far exceeds the natural climate fluctuations seen at any other point in the Cenozoic era, and has the potential to hyper-drive our planet out of a long icehouse phase into a searing hothouse state. "Now that we have succeeded in capturing the natural climate variability, we can see that the projected anthropogenic warming will be much greater than that," study co-author James Zachos, professor of Earth and planetary sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said in a statement. "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections for 2300 in the 'business-as-usual' scenario will potentially bring global temperature to a level the planet has not seen in 50 million years." (The IPCC is a United Nations group that assesses the science, risks and impacts of climate change on the planet.)

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Earth Barreling Toward 'Hothouse' State Not Seen In 50 Million Years, Epic New Climate Record Shows

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  • by lobiusmoop ( 305328 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:04AM (#60495070) Homepage

    Golden investment opportunity, in soon-to-become tropical paradise!

    • by kyjo ( 1947414 )
      You can't. At least not with the current legal status of the continent.
      • Which could actually mean you don't have to buy the land, just claim it. If nothing else, who is going to bother evicting you? Even if someone wanted to, how long would it take for all the nations participating in the treaty to work out who has the authority to throw you out? My guess would be, "long enough for your descendants to call it their traditional homeland".
        • by zmooc ( 33175 )

          Almost all of it has already been claimed with the exception of Marie Byrd Land, a pie-shaped piece between the parts that have been claimed by Chile and New-Zealand. Note that while it has not been claimed, there usually are some humans there. Also note that you can claim all you want but your claim won't be recognized and thus is effectively moot. Nobody would stop you from moving there, though :)

  • Thereâ(TM)s still money to be made. Fuck the plebs! We are all going to die someday anyway!
    • And you'll be the first against the wall, when the riots start.

      Bring out the guillotines!

    • by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:52AM (#60495114)

      Thereâ(TM)s still money to be made. Fuck the plebs! We are all going to die someday anyway!

      I know this was said in jest, but every generation that carries on the "meh, fuck it" mentality, is getting closer and closer to birthing the very generation they're fucking over.

      We're already there politically, which speaks volumes as to the actual danger to humans.

      • That's at the core of many societal issues, isn't it? A small percentage of people are being hurt now, perhaps invisibly, but the question incorrectly remains "When will this affect us all in the future?" (See: pandemic, 2020.)

        And I think that we can put up all the wind poles we want and cover the landscape with solar panels, but it still won't be enough if we don't address the hole in our energy bucket: population.
        • ...it still won't be enough if we don't address the hole in our energy bucket: population.

          Governments address that problem every day through policy. Why do you think deadly products that are very effective at killing, are legal?

          We've carved up this planet into countries. And each of those countries have a finite amount of resources. Resource management is the responsibility of every government. Population Control is key component of that responsibility. One way or another, you better be sustaining a reasonable death toll. The morally acceptable way of doing that is through policy and leg

  • by Joce640k ( 829181 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:30AM (#60495092) Homepage

    This can't be true, I went out yesterday and it was quite cold. There was also snow on the mountains in the distance.

    • There have been a record low number of polar bears spotted in my back yard this year. Someone has obviously misplaced a decimal point or some other gobbledigook.
    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      Ah, Senator Inhofe, nice to hear from you. Don't drink the bleach...bad for you.

    • I think you meant that as a sarcastic joke. Being 2020 and the nature of things, I can no longer tell anymore.

      Global Warming/Global Climate change, is recording the net temperatures all around the world. Averaging all the numbers and comparing them to previous years and data points.
      Now if you take all these data points over time, and graph them, you see an upward trend. Yes sometimes there will be a datapoint that will be lower than the previous year but if you trend them out you see it is moving upward.

      Y

    • by rtb61 ( 674572 )

      Well, actually it is not quite true. Whilst we most definitely are heating up the planet at quite a quick rate, the assumption that we would continue to do so for an extended period is quite unrealistic. There is a point where we so damage our environment our ability as a society to continue to do so will be crippled as society collapses. During this phase, much fire and smoke will be generated as we as societies degenerate and engage in wanton aimless extended conflict and due to the level of toxic polluta

      • Whether what you say will come true or not, I am shivering thinking about living in your head. Change, and I mean human change, takes time and education. Man will combat this and the trees will continue to grow and crops will be harvested and some may die. But your bleak picture and 3 meters of sea level rise is something from a movie.

  • by greytree ( 7124971 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:32AM (#60495096)

    Thanks for the link to "Log in to view the full text".

  • by Camembert ( 2891457 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:50AM (#60495110)
    Disregarding his other abysmal decisions, 45's reducing of environmental protections and disregard of global warming puts a death knell on earth, even only for this he should be kicked out. It's sad really, in my household and at many of my friends, we try to be responsible with waste, packaging and what we buy (often trying to use regionally farmed produce), and meanwhile he makes it easier for big industry to pollute.
  • by JoshuaZ ( 1134087 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @05:55AM (#60495122) Homepage

    There are multiple distinct problems here. One of the biggest and most underappreciated is a major part of what this article is talking about. Given enough time and if it happens slowly enough, life can adjust to temperature changes. But our repeated pumping of massive amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere is causing that change to not just happen but happen rapidly, much too fast for life to evolve. Humans might be able to change our behavior faster because of our basic intelligence, but even that will be at that the cost of trillions of dollars, especially in terms of the damage to coastal cities from rising sea levels. And areas with less resources, like much of Africa, which are just really starting to be developed, may be absolutely devastated. And these aren't the only negatives of climate change; there are other issues like increased ocean acidification from CO2. There are some places which will see some positives, like Russia having more usable farm land as its permafrost melts, but by and large the results are going to be far more damaging by probably multiple orders of magnitude.

    So, what can you do as an individual? There are three things one can do, personal, political, and charitable.

    At a personal level, you can reduce your carbon footprint. This can include eating less meat; meat production involves a lot of CO2 production compared to most other foods. You can get solar panels for your house or get better insulation for your house. You can turn the heat down more during the winter and use the AC less when it is hot. All of these things can not only help the environment, but they save you money. If you can, avoid buying a car, or go car less. Unfortunately, given COVID-19, public transit right now is not very safe, so I can't reasonably recommend using it (as I would at other times). If you must by a new car, please strongly consider buying either an electric or a hybrid. In most of the US, they are better in terms of CO2 than an ICE. There are some areas which are still coal heavy like West Virginia where this may not the case, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/24/climate/how-electricity-generation-changed-in-your-state.html [nytimes.com] but for the vast majority of the US, as well as pretty much all of Europe, an electric car is a clear winner. Even in places where coal generation is high, a hybrid is still a better option than a conventional ICE.

    At a political level, you can support candidates who favor system environmental change. In the US, this mostly means supporting Democrats. While there are some Republicans who have strong environmental records, like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Christie Todd Whitman(former governor of New Jersey and George W. Bush's EPA head), they've been largely run out of the party. The current US Republican administration has been incredibly bad about environmental issues. George W. Bush's administration had a mixed record, but this one is actively rolling back all sorts of environmental regulations. Finally, one can engage in charitable giving. Right now, in the short-term, the way to offset the most carbon per a dollar spent is arguably Cool Earth https://www.coolearth.org/ [coolearth.org] . By some estimates it takes around $15 to $20 to Cool Earth to offset the carbon of a coast-to-coast plane flight. My spouse and I regularly donate to Cool Earth when we travel to help offset carbon use (obviously that's mattered less during COVID but when things are more normal travel is a major contributor to CO2 production). More long-term issues center around solar and wind power (I unfortunately don't know any good charity for nuclear power.) The two best solar charities in general are Everybody Solar http://www.everybodysolar.org/ [everybodysolar.org] which gets solar panels for non-profits like museums and homeless shelters, and the Solar Electric Light Fund which gets solar

    • by srmalloy ( 263556 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @09:31AM (#60495694) Homepage

      There are multiple distinct problems here. One of the biggest

      ...is the utter failure at math. From the article: "...saw temperatures up to 60 degrees Fahrenheit (16 degrees Celsius) above modern levels..." and "...with surface temperatures averaging about 40 F (4 C) above modern levels." These are temperature differences, not absolute temperatures. The "+32" factor in Centigrade-to-Fahrenheit conversion falls out; one degree Celsius is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. So a rise of 16 C is 28.8 F, and a rise of 4 C is 7 F, not 60 and 40 F respectively. With this level of fundamental inaccuracy, I shudder to think at what other, less obvious, mistakes, half truths, and lies appear in the article. For example, the graph shows a temperature projection under RCP 8.5; this is widely described as the "do nothing" scenario, when it is more correctly cast as the "burn all the coal as fast as possible" -- the 2011 paper in Climatic Change by Keywan Riahi et al. shows a graph that presumably shows coal production increasing to 2100, but makes no reference to the fact that the production indicated in the graph exceeds known coal reserves.

      • Most of your objections seem to apply to the Livescience article, not the article they are reporting on; the degree conversion issue is there, not in the original. Your point about coal reserves is a valid one, but we do keep finding more coal and oil reserves and likely will for some time.
    • (https://gridalternatives.org/) is another charitable solar installer, for low income home owners.

  • For starters a little memo from the methane front: Methane Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. [wikipedia.org] This is nightmare material. If only 30% of this hypothesis alone is true, we're in deep trouble.

    We're probalby screwed either way. The question is: How hard?

    I like to think of it in 3 levels, named after Cyberpunk(y) novels or films that display a world similar to the screwage-level.

    Screwage Level 1 - "Snowcrash / Walkaway"
    The ecosystem as we knew it is decimated, but has reached a new equilibrium that is habitable for humans and many fauna and flora. Temperate climate zones have shrunk an moved towards the polar circles, wast swaths of humanity have died miserable deaths but modern human civilization has survived and can benefit from a quasi-post-scarcity economy, robots, AI and all the other nice SF stuff. Humanity is actively pursuing ways to roll back climate change and regrow fauna and flora, perhaps with the use of modern sophisticated genetic engineering, nanotech or some smart and feasible idea some Elon-Musk-type has come up with.

    Screwage Level 2 - "Bladerunner (2049) / The Windup Girl / Soylent Green"
    The ecosystem is FUBAR. Certain fauna and flora still exist and can live in the open, but the diversity we knew is completely gone. Cockroaches are doing fine though. Humanity has caused an ecological tilt that has pushed us across multiple states of possible sustainable equilibrium. A quasi-modern civilization still exists, high tech is around, but life in general is a depressing misery for most, with large swaths of the human population depending on "calorie megacorps" or corporations serving clean air and water or artificial supplements. Knowledge and science wasn't lost, but rebuilding of the ecosystem using high-tech is nowhere in sight, humanity is scraping by. The earth isn't recognizable to anyone from today.

    Screwage Level 3 "Mad Max / 'Eden' Manga / 'Scary Simon Stalenhag Picture with alien thing in destroyed city'"
    It's over. Modern civilization is lost, most humans are dead. A few survive for 2 or 3 generations in some habitat setups. If humans and sustaining fauna and flora survive they are thrown back to early bronze-age at best. The eco-equilibrium is maybe livable, but modern society as we know it is a source of myth if anything.

    What bugs me is that dimwits all around don't see the problem, even though we've known it since the 70ies. I'm 110% sure we have to hit the brakes and go into hard reverse within the decade to avoid level 2 or 3. Level 1 might already be inevitable, but maybe we can turn that one around too or at least mitigate the effects.

    Spread the word! Let's get into damage-control ASAP and get this fixed.
    I don't want the current ecosphere to go down like that!

    We can do this!

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Cmdln Daco ( 1183119 )

      I see you're referencing popular culture works to relare to 'the problem' to try to make sense of it. How does 'Hogan's Heroes' (1965) fit into your scenario. And what about Gilligan?

      • by GlennC ( 96879 )

        The above reply is why I'm convinced that "Screwage Level 2" is the absolute best we'll be able to do.

        It was fun while it lasted....

      • That's possibly the dumbest fucking post on this article.
        I see you're trying to critique him for using popular culture works to relate "the problem" by using a straw man. How does deliverance fit into your daily life?
      • And what about Gilligan?

        A three-hour lifespan.

        • Gilligan's Island has it right. Stop driving, have a vegan lifestyle, and if you need to power something then you have to start pedaling. And they've managed to keep their birth rate at 0% as well.

    • I suspect it's screwage level 4: Mammals are gone. Nurturing your young is a evolutionary dead end, as is "intelligence". Some vertebrates like fish might survive, as well as horseshoe crabs - they've have been around 450M years. When you've been around that long, you know how to roll with the punches.
      • Nurturing your young is way too liberal! They should learn to fend for themselves fast, not be a bunch of literal cry babies.

    • by matt328 ( 916281 )
      I agree there are dimwits all around not seeing the problem, but what bugs me more is there is a non-zero number of corporations who are actively pursuing a form of your Screwage Level 2 in order to set themselves up as 'calorie megacorps'. A few more generations of completely unchecked capitalism will get us there. The dangerous thing is that it will happen slowly enough that no one will even realize it, and most will not only accept it, but embrace it.
    • by Big Boss ( 7354 )

      So what's your proposal? Let's assume you're right, what do you do about it? Note that you will never get people to go along with "kill large numbers of people" or most types of population reduction. They will also not go along with "low/no tech, refrigeration, electricity, transportation, etc". Those seem to be the two common suggestions, and they will not fly. That doesn't mean I want to see nothing at all happen, but if you want people to do something, they have to get something out of it. And nebulous t

  • by sidetrack ( 4550 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @06:16AM (#60495144) Homepage

    Fortunately, our emissions are already quite a way below the worst "RCP8.5" scenario shown in the graph.

    RCP8.5 is often called "business as usual" in the press, and elsewhere, but is actually more like "burn all the coal you can find, as quickly as possible" - RCP4.5 is more like the current "no-policy/little-further-innovation" scenario (even in countries which are trying to push no-longer-economic coal fired electricity generation for political reasons).

    See e.g. "Arguments over RCP8.5" https://peakoilbarrel.com/argu... [peakoilbarrel.com]

    Hopefully we can push things below RCP4.5 and closer to RCP2.6...

    How it is still possible some underestimated feedback will kick in, and push the actual outcome closer to the RCP8.5 model shown (even with reduced emissions), but this is not expected by most climate forecasters at present. At least from a "what-we-are-doing-about-it" perspective, we've improved from an "F" around the turn of the millennium to a "C" today.

  • In other words (Score:2, Interesting)

    by argStyopa ( 232550 )

    Looking at the chart in tfa, what the article really shows is "at the worst conceivable case, the earth is returning to a temperature state more reflective of the bulk of its history"...but that probably doesn't carry the message of panic you're aiming for?

    • Re:In other words (Score:5, Informative)

      by Truth_Quark ( 219407 ) on Friday September 11, 2020 @06:50AM (#60495180) Journal
      If you understand the impacts of that, it carries a message of more than enough panic for any purpose I can think of.

      Humans have been around about 300,000 years. Go back 1 million, and few or no existent species would have been around. Go back 5 million, and you've got a climate that no existent species has ever dealt with. So that's enough for an ecological disaster that will rip up every ecosystem on the planet.

      And this goes back 50 million.
      • Yeah, but not for another 280 years. Do you think we'll be using the same energy sources for the next 280 years? For the next 80? 20?

        Given the pace of technological development, that's more than enough time to turn things around. Or for civilization to collapse and leave nobody in a position to care.

    • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Friday September 11, 2020 @08:19AM (#60495392) Homepage Journal

      This is a big deal for humans.

      If you aren't one, please report to the prize desk to get your Turing award.

      Unless you're just one of the lizard-people, in which case, go eat a grasshopper or something. The humans are trying to have a conversation here.

    • by DogDude ( 805747 )
      Looking at the chart in tfa, what the article really shows is "at the worst conceivable case, the earth is returning to a temperature state more reflective of the bulk of its history"...but that probably doesn't carry the message of panic you're aiming for?

      Neat! Humans haven't existed on Earth for the "bulk of its history".
  • Does this mean the dinosaurs are coming back? Kids would like that.
  • There is a simple antidote to Global Warming. Just bring Ewing and Dunn back from retirement:
    https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/?single=1
    http://www.denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

    • That makes about as much sense as bringing back Pauling and his vitamin C megadoses. That is, virtually none. I'm sure the perpetrators of this nonsense have been properly embarrassed already, no need to make it even worse for them.
  • We have plenty of time to adapt to such a slow change or completely reverse it. In a time frame of centuries it's not hard to start building CO2 scrubbers or algae tanks or some such techonolgy... build new houses further inland to evade sea level rise, or whatever. People move around all the time, if you create an economic incentive then 5 or 10 years are enough to completely gentrify some place or tear everything down to build hotels. In that timeframe we can genetically manipulate crops to live with less

  • There are people and organizations - well meaning simpletons to active disinformation organizations - who seek to deny AGW. They couch the arguments in the same terms the covid anti-mask, anti-protective efforts are couched. BUT, with POTUS admitting he misled the public initially to downplay the covid reality, for whatever reason, and so many people latching onto the officially disseminated arguments downplaying covid, and now realizing they were chumps for doing so, that may make them realize they may al

  • I mean, I've heard of planking and batmanning but barreling doesn't exactly conjure a consistent image. I have the same puzzlement about why shots always ring out.

  • Who would have seen it 50 million years ago?
    They were all at the beach, I guess.

  • you can see the same thing written clearly in the archaeological records, over and over again, cities grew too big, resource collection became too intensive, the surrounding land became a dust bowl and barren.

    we have now done this to the whole planet.

    how (unprintable) ignorant can a species be?

    if we do not fix this, this very soon, we die.

    will anyone even notice this reply?

    or care?

  • I was listening to a podcast interviewing William Rees who is a population ecologist. He had a good conversation explaining that for every human born, the equivalent of competing animal or plant life is removed. Prior to globalization, human populations were limited by their local ecosystem. But now because we can import resources and "export" pollution and over exploitation to other locations, the human population can skyrocket until we destroy the planets ecosystem on a global scale. I just hope I can e
  • The real argument here is cost.

    Environmentalists want everything switched out to "greener" technologies and systems and all evidence shows these kinds of drastic steps really are necessary to stabilize or reverse the trends.

    But there is a significant cost to embracing this kind of "all in" change. We can't just talk about electric cars, for example, without realizing the whole infrastructure needs to change to maximize the advantage of them, the cost to assist poor folks who cannot afford to purchase a new

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