New Zealand Can't Find Source of Its New Covid-19 Cases (nzherald.co.nz) 199
A new cluster of Covid-19 cases in New Zealand prompted a widespread investigation to identify where they're coming from. The New Zealand Herald reports:
Nearly 90 new cases of Covid-19 have now been linked back to the new cluster, which itself stemmed from an "index case" — a 50-year-old man working at Mt Wellington's Americold coolstore, with no history or link to overseas travel. Contact tracers have been trying to work backwards from that index case, who tested positive on August 11, in hopes of finding the "primary case" — or the person who brought the virus into the country in the first place.
Friday — more than a week and 175,000 tests since the start of the outbreak — Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shared some details on how exhaustive that process had been. Virtually all of the country's border and managed isolation staff have been tested in the past 10 days, and so far there had been no additional cases, outside the mystery infection of a maintenance worker at Auckland's Rydges hotel...
University of Auckland microbiologist Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles says it's quite possible we'll never get any further. "Is that a big deal? From the testing we've done so far, it looks like this is a pretty tight cluster — so I would say, no," she said. "What we have lost is the opportunity to know how it happened, or what gaps need plugging. But at the same time, we have to remember that nothing is 100 per cent guaranteed to work all of the time."
Friday — more than a week and 175,000 tests since the start of the outbreak — Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern shared some details on how exhaustive that process had been. Virtually all of the country's border and managed isolation staff have been tested in the past 10 days, and so far there had been no additional cases, outside the mystery infection of a maintenance worker at Auckland's Rydges hotel...
University of Auckland microbiologist Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles says it's quite possible we'll never get any further. "Is that a big deal? From the testing we've done so far, it looks like this is a pretty tight cluster — so I would say, no," she said. "What we have lost is the opportunity to know how it happened, or what gaps need plugging. But at the same time, we have to remember that nothing is 100 per cent guaranteed to work all of the time."
At least they are handling it (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:4, Informative)
NY and NJ went over its peak several months ago. People aren't dying en masse anymore.
New Zealand is also an island which also has virtually no foreign travelers...
New Zealand had 3.8 million tourists in 2019.
New Zealand also had a leadership that acted quickly as opposed to the US that has an orange clown who decided to ignore the virus out of fear of 'bad numbers'.
Now go back to your cellar to cook up a new fantasy world to amuse us with.
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New Zealand also had a leadership that acted quickly as opposed to the US that has an orange clown who decided to ignore the virus out of fear of 'bad numbers'.
That's not entirely accurate.
He decided to ignore the virus because it was only really happening in places that didn't vote for him. [nbcnews.com]
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New Zealand also had a leadership that acted quickly as opposed to the US
NZ locked down on 3/25, 6 days after CA and 4 days after NYC.
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There is no peeing end to the pool. CA and NYC locking down is meaningless without a wider lockdown.
So, when did the US enter an *effective* lockdown? Well, we're still waiting...
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Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Insightful)
Only government can instigate lockdown, boarder closure etc
In New Zealand case the health system is centrally funded, so the government is able to put in more resources/funding.
Individual care is up to the doctors, but they have no control outside of their workspace.
NZ government however took advice from the NZ medical Director, Epidemiologists, Microbiologists and other sciences to formulate its response.
The response was led from the government and the Prime Minister.
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A government has to do these things, but if it has any goddamned sense at all the politicians move into the background and let the public health officials take charge. The sight of self aggrandizing politicians standing front and center while the actual people who know what they're doing have to wait is repugnant. And demonstrates the intense arrogance and stupidity of so many in the political class.
NZ actually over did it (Score:2)
Australia also got on top of Covid-19 in about the same time. NZ shut down everything, while in Australia most businesses stayed open, but with many other restrictions. So NZ paid a much higher price for much the same result. More importantly, they did not change strategy when the evidence came out that Australia's response was sufficient.
There has been a major outbreak in Victoria recently. But that has nothing to do with the level of lock downs, and everything to do with sloppy quarantine. The Victor
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More importantly, they did not change strategy when the evidence came out that Australia's response was sufficient.
There has been a major outbreak in Victoria recently. But that has nothing to do with the level of lock downs, and everything to do with sloppy quarantine. The Victorian numbers are going down, rather more slowly than hoped, but they peaked at 700/day, now at 200/day.
You must live in a different Australia to me.
NZ recent outbreak is sloppy quarantine (even if they can't find patient 0 right now). They had a short but severe lockdown. Now they are having a smaller second lockdown.
Australia has tried to have it both ways. We didn't go for eradication, and we were close enough that it was viable. Instead Scummo decided business over health. This is why we have been living on a knife edge for 6 months. We keep having outbreaks that only get MOSTLY contained, before allowing
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Our first lockdown, at its peak, was stricter than those in Australia, but it lasted a much shorter time. By May 14 we were at "alert level 2" which is mostly normal life, but most of Australia didn't reach a similar level for another month, because community cases kept bubbling up in Australia. It's far from obvious that Australia's approach was a win overall. Compare Australia with NZ here:
https://ourworldindata.org/cor... [ourworldindata.org]
Your argument that we should have "changed strategy" is also off base. It has never
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Unless the health official only communicates in a cipher, I don't need a guy whose sole qualification is convincing enough of my fellow citizens to elect him giving me updates on infection or mortality numbers.
New Zealand's Prime Minister lied about response (Score:2)
The weird thing about this pandemic is that the perception of competence by leaders seems to have very little to do with what they actually do, and New Zealand's no exception. There's been plenty of screw-ups around the border closures and quarantine facilities - escapes, people being granted exemptions without being tested and turning out to be infected, etc - but the one that would have really hurt any leader the press wanted to spin as a failure rather than a success is that New Zealand's Prime Minister
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Insightful)
New Zealand also had a leadership that acted quickly as opposed to the US that has an orange clown who decided to ignore the virus out of fear of 'bad numbers'.
You won't make any sense out of this - or any other epidemic - until you clearly separate and distinguish medicine from politics. Who is Prime Minister or President is irrelevant. Treatment of diseases should be in the hands of doctors and no one else.
If, in your country, politicians are deciding on treatment then you have a lot bigger problems than any individual bad apple.
It's an epidemic. Somebody has to coordinate a response. Claiming government has no place in combating an epidemic is about as stupid as saying that there is no place in war for generals. Of course the US currently has the worst of both worlds, it does have a government but the commander in chief is to stupid to coordinate a coherent response to the ongoing pandemic which is why the US leads the world in corona cases and corona deaths, this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/c... [wsj.com] is what happens when there is effectively nobody in charge.
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The sad thing is that your link is nearly a month old now, and absolutely nothing has improved.
Even more sadly, the US should be leading the world effort in combating this virus. It has everything needed except competent leadership.
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Informative)
LOL! It's the best government NZ has had in a long time. Thank FUCK National weren't in power when this pandemic arrived, NZ would've been similar to the rest of the world.
Disaster for the economy? I'll just leave this here for your tiny brain to comprehend:
2nd quarter 2020 GDP percentage changes from quarter before:
NZL -1.6
KOR -3.333495
IDN -6.948335
JPN -7.817224
SVK -8.25715
CZE -8.4
NLD -8.494284
SWE -8.599972
USA -9.494716
DEU -10.091568
AUT -10.73742
CAN -12
BEL -12.2
ITA -12.357947
CHL -13.21523
FRA -13.815177
PRT -14.1
MEX -17.3
ESP -18.484123
GBR -20.374743
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GBR -20.374743
This is what our government, particularly that idiot Johnson, describes as "world beating". I suppose it's true in a sense, we screwed ourselves harder than anyone else.
With brexit hitting in January it's hard to comprehend just how fucked we are.
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Yeah, I've got a UK passport and workmates in London. Really feel for the UK right now and what you've been through.
Johnson lies almost as much as Trump.
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Johnson and Trump lie as much as your personal favorite politician on whichever political team you belong.
Because they are all politicians.
Re: At least they are handling it (Score:2)
Johnston (and Trump for that matter) take lying to new levels even for politicians. It's at the point where every last word out of Johnston's mouth is either and outright lie or a complete distortion of the truth.
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That's not New Zealand's second quarter GDP. (Score:2)
New Zealand's GDP figures for the second quarter don't actually seem to be out yet (it looks like they were released in September last year) - the 1.6% drop you're quoting is for their first quarter, which was almost entirely before the lockdown. The figures for other countries that you're quoting all seem to be from the second quarter. No shit, if you compare the drop in GDP for a quarter where there weren't lockdowns everywhere to other countries' drop in GDP for a quarter where there was there's going to
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And what the funk is wrong with national debt?
Seriously?
Who cares if the government in time of crisis loans money from his rich citizens and gives it to those who are affected by said crisis? Do you have some strange mental problem? Brainwashed american?
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Note that in all cases, they are also at the mercy of global economics.
Personally I prefer a more socialised government providing stronger social services(mental health, cheap healthcare, backstops for people losing
Re:Are they? (Score:4, Informative)
National debt has not doubled over this time. Soverign debt has increased from 120bn (April) to 134bn (end of July). https://www.aap.com.au/nz-nati... [aap.com.au]. Also, check out the GDP graphs above.
Big Picture: Personally I am a believer in counter-cyclical spending. Research has shown that the best time for governments to spend is during crises, and then to pay back debt during good times. This keeps the economy going and people in jobs. Fiscal conservatives tend to take the opposite approach, which bucks research (but then they often believe in trickle down too, which is thoroughly debunked).
There's been no evidence that the government "continuously lies to the public". What there is evidence of are human mistakes throughout a complex system - people have escaped, people have been given compassionate leave inappropriately, border workers were not tested enough to name a few.
So lets examine escapees:
People arriving are kept in hotels, which were *never* designed to be secure - in fact just the opposite. It might be impossible to stop escapes 100% without switching to jails, which I dont agree with. However from a risk perspective almost everyone is doing the right thing and staying put. We have had no community transmission from arrivals.
What about testing border workers?
There's been no widespread community transmission from either the people in quarantine or the workers around them. Perhaps we've been lucky... personally I think its working pretty well and getting better.
As to your comment about controlling the media - coming from the Key era when not only was messaging strongly controlled, but access to even Official Information was restricted via a set of games... this government is a step forward so far. I'm not going to say they are perfect by a long shot, but their big picture moves so far have been right on the money.
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NZ has more travel, 5.8% of GDP, vs US travel, which is 2.8%. But the NZ numbers are foreign travel, and I couldn't find a breakdown of US numbers that was solely foreign travelers, so I expect the actual foreign travel % of GDP is much more skewed.
Shutting down only China was racist, and make it much easier for the early clusters to form around travel from Europe and Israel.
Also, the US had no clear and consistent border policy. Sic
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I don't think it even makes sense to use per-capita comparisons here. Remember, it only takes one infected traveller to start a cluster of infections, and it only takes one cluster slipping through the net to cause containment efforts to fail altogether. So it's going to be the total number of travellers that affects how feasible New Zealand-style elimination and exclusion of the virus actually is, and the fact that this makes it look like larger countries will have a harder time is just a reflection of rea
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Yeah there are, they are overstayers from pacific islands. This latest cluster was in the PI community and there were fears that lack of documentation would prevent people getting tested, so they went out of their way to spread the message that healthcare wasn't checked against residency status.
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I don't think there are many 3rd worlder's jumping the border into NZ.
Which just shows how little you know about New Zealand.
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New Zealand, population 5 million, had over 3 million foreign visitors in 2019.
New Zealand's border closures followed similar timing but different scope than the US. When the US closed the border to any foreigners who had been in China recently in early February, NZ closed the border to foreigners who had been in Wuhan specifically. In late February, when US expanded to Iran and most of Europe, NZ expanded to Iran and Italy. It was not until mid March that the borders were closed to all foreigners.
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That depends.. (Score:2)
Including or Excluding American workers making 'essential' movies, or billionaires and their Americans Cup teams??
Other then them, its a round number.
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That's nice. How many visitors in 2020? Since, you know, that's the year we're in right now.
In March 2020, there were 175,000 foreign visitors in New Zealand. That would be the equivalent of about 11,000,000 in the US.
New Zealand locked down on the 19th of March and sent them all home.
Not sure what point you're trying to make.
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New Zealand is also an island which also has virtually no foreign travelers...
Are you serious? A country where tourism was 6% of GDP before Covid has "virtually no foreign travelers"? In 2019 there were 3.8 million foreign visitors to New Zealand, which would be like having 240,000,000 tourists in America.
Here are a few numbers for 2020. [camperchamp.com.au] In March 2020, when New Zealand locked down there were 175,500 tourists in the country.
Once again, that would be the equivalent to something like 11 million tourists in America.
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Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Informative)
while Pelosi was deriding it as racist policy to shut down the borders.
Americans coming from directly from China, including directly from Wuhan, were subject to no restrictions, no testing, no basic health screening, no contact tracing, and no 2-week isolation; yet Chinese nationals were banned from entry entirely; how exactly was this a policy based on public health best practices?
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Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Informative)
The USA has over 1000 deaths a day.
The 1674 is probably the number of positive tests in NZ, this is not the same a deaths.
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Informative)
LOL! It's 1,674 CASES total.
22 deaths.
Since inception.
If you were from America, I could imagine how you'd have no comprehension of levels that low.
Note that we are currently in an outbreak. Yesterday we had 1 community transmission (linked to the outbreak cluster) and 2 caught in quarantine at boarder entering the country. Auckland (where I'm from) is in level 3 (out of 4) lockdown. Been in lockdown for almost 2 weeks now, after 3 months at level 1 (which is normal life).
Rest of the country level 2.
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:4, Insightful)
There were 890 people struck by lightning in the last week? Because that is how many people under 45 died from Covid-19 in the US last week.
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Writing this monday morning. Not sure when the US is reporting cases:
Yesterday: 430 dead
22nd: 974 dead
21st: 1,170 dead
20th: 1,097 dead
19th: 1,284 dead
18th: 1,394 dead
17th: 571 dead
I guess you simply missed a zero at your number
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No, I was only counting people under 45. They are only 10% of the total, but still not as insignificant as was suggested.
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Re:At least they are handling it (Score:4, Informative)
Well your "real tell" says you are wrong. We see preliminary reports saying covid deaths are likely undercounted not overcounted - as they only account for about two thirds of the excess deaths. So likely many of the deaths being reported as other causes likely were indirectly (or even directly) covid deaths too.
https://jamanetwork.com/journa... [jamanetwork.com]
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"They're juicing up the COVID numbers" is a conspiracy theory unsupported by evidence.
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Also, TDS doesn't mean what you think it means.
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> If in the future the virus goes crazy in NZ killing thousands they will look like fools for wasting all that effort on elimination
Not at all. Whatever happens from here on, we will benefit from everything that has been learned worldwide about how to treat COVID19 over the last few months --- months where we have been enjoying normal life, unlike almost every other country.
> you might love being locked down but I do not.
Nobody loves being locked down. With our current strategy we should soon be able
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They had so few bad cases because they were into TB innoculation, like Australia, like Japan and that reduces convid 18 to asymptomatic or a minor condition and so it can travel around the whole community in a minor way, no one really noticing until it hits a community with low resistance or never had a TB inoculation and voila because they are not systematically anti-body testing they have no idea where it came from. You know why they can not find where it came from, because they are dumb political appoint
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It looks like the BCG vaccine may reduce the severity of COVID19 but it by no means guarantees to reduce COVID19 to an "asymptomatic or a minor condition".
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub... [eurekalert.org]
Re: At least they are handling it (Score:2)
The UK was heavily into the BCG too. Most people over 15 will have had it, apart from the very elderly who where past school age when it came out. Not really working out for us I am afraid.
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Same with France.
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Sending covid 19 patients to place where people are most at risk is criminal negligence and as those people impacted died, murder, at the very least mansluaghter, the impact of the crime of criminal negligence.
There is 'NO' excuse for sending contagious people to a nursing home and the only reason to do so was to kill as many elderly at those nursing homes to cut costs for a corrupt right wing government.
I could not imagine the excuse that could possibly work in a court of law to avoid prosecution for cri
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I don't think cultures are all that different about dealing with (or hiding) embarrassing information. What's different are the kinds of things that embarrass (or don't embarass) them.
Re:At least they are handling it (Score:5, Insightful)
The US still has a thousand people a day or so dying. That's like three 747's crashing every day. Normally, that might be alarming to some people, but to Slashdot posters (or Russian/Chinese trolls) who never leave their basements I suppose there's not much to worry about.
And that's just deaths. Anyone who's been hospitalized for this virus will probably have long-term health problems which will cause hardship, as well as adding to the US healthcare costs and reducing productivity for a generation.
Yes, the virus is on the decline for now, and as long as people wear masks and practice good hygiene, it will probably continue so. But don't go pretending that this was nothing.
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Assuming the figure is anywhere near accurate (big assumption),
The figure is fairly accurate. If anything, it's lower than it should be in part because of suppression of the figures. If you want to go around comparing it to, for example, flu deaths, it's a bit ridiculous to presume it's inflated because the same people use the same methods to get the number of flu deaths. If the Covid-19 deaths are inflated, so are the flu deaths. As for your claim that an initial boost in deaths from mingling people in nursing homes lead to a skewed perspective on severity, you are in
Re: At least they are handling REEEEEEEE (Score:4, Insightful)
Funfact, for every polio death, there were ten people crippled by it. Covid is the same, even if you survive it it causes extensive damage.
Re: At least they are handling REEEEEEEE (Score:4, Informative)
even if you survive it it causes extensive damage.
Funny, the WHO says [who.int]
Maybe you could point the WHO to the data showing otherwise. After you post it here, of course.
Here's a thought (Score:2, Interesting)
How about checking those rich Americans who spent all that money on one of those buried bunkers there in NZ?
Just go pop the hatch. If you don't get shot in the face, and you smell a dead body, you've probably found the source.
Re:Here's a thought (Score:5, Funny)
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I guess, to be safe, you'd have to pop the hatch and drop in a grenade.
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I thought that was the recommended way to deal with bunker dwelling US ex-pat CHUDs.
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I guess, to be safe, you'd have to pop the hatch and drop in a grenade.
And what happens when you find a dead body then?
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So at best if they did that they would swap bunkers, except the new one is not under ground, its will a bunch of other criminal, and you will get out in about 25 years.
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How would a foreigner buy a gun in NZ?
What does the store sell, and is any of it import? (Score:2)
Viruses are tenacious. It's possible that people with COVID left them in or on something the store imported for sale.
Re: What does the store sell, and is any of it imp (Score:2)
It's been investigated with 35 samples being taken from the environment. A few were found weakly positive - from the people who worked there who were sick. None of the external vectors (imported products) showed any sign of the virus.
Re:What does the store sell, and is any of it impo (Score:5, Informative)
So people have to get close as the cargo is moved from ship/plane to truck. Best case, it comes in on a cargo ship in containers that are craned off and onto a truck. If that's the case, then this could be a case of surface transmission, which is rare, and nearly impossible to trace.
Someone is lying (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Someone is lying (Score:5, Insightful)
Probably the same guy who got bit by a zombie and didn't tell anyone.
Outdated article (Score:5, Informative)
This article is about 3 days old. The maintenance worker in the Rydges hotel is no longer a mystery.
Genomic sequencing had proved it is not linked to the community cluster, and that he caught the infection from a traveler from the US. Investigation of their movements in the isolation hotel shows she used a lift and the maintenance worker used the same lift within a few minutes of her. The expectation is he was infected from the lift buttons.
From testing, he hasn't spread his infection on to anyone else, and all close contacts are in self isolation.
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That's a scary reminder of how easy it is to get infected. People give me funny looks when I use my little brass door opener thingy to press the buttons in the lift but I'm going to keep doing it.
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If you had done quarantine, lock down, testing, and contact tracing from day one, you had not 50k new cases every day.
Can't be so hard to grasp that doing the right things is cheaper in the long run than doing nothing.
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I got it on eBay, search for "brass door opener". It looks like an oversize key. You can use it to pull handles open or to press buttons. Unfortunately doesn't work with capacitative touch screens.
The idea is to avoid touching the surface yourself. Brass has anti-viral properties, for some reason that isn't well understood viruses and bacteria die fast on brass surfaces.
Re: Outdated article (Score:3)
Probably the copper in the brass which is widely known to have anti bacterial properties. I wonder if you can get silver ones as its even better.
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For reference, I'd say most of them are shaped like lowercase letter "g", about three inches tall. The hole is big enough to hook a finger through, like some kind of weird brass-knuckle.
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Put down your copy of Penthouse Letters and back away from the keyboard
Those damn salmons again (Score:2)
They are trying to kill us as we kill them.
Siouxsie? (Score:2)
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Hey! Her parents were big 80's Music Fans [youtube.com].
Air cushions in refrigerated freight (Score:4, Interesting)
I suspect air cushions commonly used as padding to protect goods in refrigerated freight.
Think bubble wrap, but with much larger air-filled bubbles, and made onsite at the packing plant. Researchers [qut.edu.au] recently persuaded WHO to accept that the virus stays active in the air for longer distances and times than previously accepted. So you take the 'infected air' containing virus aerosols, package it up in a nice little refrigerated bubble and send it overseas, where it's popped as packaging is recycled or disposed. What do you get, but active, 'infected air' at the receiver address.
Here are some of the machines that make the packaging:
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
They really cry out for heating, HEPA filters and UVC sterilization at their air intakes.
Re: Air cushions in refrigerated freight (Score:2)
This is actually plausible. The virus would be protected from desiccation too.
Someone's not talking (Score:2)
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I think they're probably feeling pretty good about taking their chances, despite your warning.
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Wow, just wow. Police state? LOL!
I actually live in NZ. We have enjoyed freedom of life you foreigners can only dream of.
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LOL! Someone who needs to own guns to feel free! What a sad, pathetic individual.
Yeah, it's been real rough having our freedoms locked down to be as bad as the UK and US for a couple weeks, thank God we have a decent government who is able to free us back up again soon:
https://ourworldindata.org/gra... [ourworldindata.org]
Re:Ahhh, New Zealand. (Score:5, Insightful)
Yup, and we are not the country which has had unmarked military-style police taking people off the streets in recent weeks, nor are we the country which has seen mass protests countered by police gone mad, nor are we the country where police buy ex-military grenade launchers and armoured vehicles, nor are we the country where gerrymandering and voter suppression is a normal way of life, nor are we the country which has been sabotaging free elections by means of reducing the post offices ability to sort and deliver postal ballots...
Your country is nowhere near as free as you think it is. The fact that you people think it is simply because you have guns just means your benchmark is way way off.
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The greatest removal of rights comes when you are dead
NZ a police state, ROTFLMAO, your stupidity is only out matched by your ignorance.
And I can see why you posted as an anonymous coward.
Re: Uh oh... spontaneous combustion (Score:2)
Or maybe the virus can survive a long time on some surfaces so it can be spread with imported goods.
That would make it even harder to stop.