Global Coronavirus Cases Hit 20 Million (reuters.com) 170
Global coronavirus cases pushed past 20 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, with the United States, Brazil and India accounting for more than half of all known infections. From a report: The respiratory disease has infected at least four times the average number of people struck down with severe influenza illnesses annually, according to the World Health Organization. The death toll from COVID-19, meanwhile, at more than 728,000 has outpaced the upper range of annual deaths from the flu. The Reuters tally, which is based on government reports, shows the disease is accelerating. It took almost six months to reach 10 million cases after the first infection was reported in Wuhan, China, in early January. It took just 43 days to double that tally to 20 million. Experts believe the official data likely undercounts both infections and deaths, particularly in countries with limited testing capacity. The United States is responsible for around 5 million cases, Brazil 3 million and India 2 million. Russia and South Africa round out the top ten.
Confirmed cases (Score:5, Insightful)
Global Coronavirus Confirmed Cases Hit 20 Million.
FTFY.
The number of reported cases hits 20 Million, but actual cases are probably an order of magnitude larger, as observed in the Spanish seroprevalence study [thelancet.com], for example.
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Spanish numbers are an edge case, because the government systematically under-reports the numbers. A couple of recent studies showed differences up to one order of magnitude between the numbers reported to the government (e.g. from local districts and regions) and those published by the government.
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Re:Confirmed cases (Score:4, Insightful)
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60% does not give you heard immunity.
97% does.
Perhaps - with a hand waving gesture - 87% does.
On top of that it depends on how infectious the disease is.
If you would infect statistically 10 ppl before you are no longer sick, you would not even have a reasonable heard immunity with 97% immune ppl.
Seriously: it is just MATH. How stupid are ppl here?
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Not stupid, just lame, paid to push corporate propaganda. Why the fuck are they no giving everyone the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]. They know it works against corona virus and to prove it all they had to do was compare the symptoms of those who had it against the symptoms of those who have not, done and finished and OHH NOO, more testing required, more delays many more months of delays, enough testing so they can push a useless multibillion vaccine, as people die waiting for it, the sheer unadulterate
This is starting to remind me of Andromeda Strain (Score:2)
If you're not familiar, the 'disease' (which was literally extraterrestrial in origin) wasn't even DNA-based, it was a silicon-based life-form, and in it's original form, as it fell to Earth on a downed satellite (micrometeorite hit it, knocked it out of orbit) it was incredibly and spectacularly deadly -- but after a little while it mutated into a non-lethal form.
Now, didn't someone somewhere say
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Mutations are more or less random, but tend to favour Darwinism in the long term. "Survival of the fittest" in the case of a virus would mean more it would become more virulent (e.g. spread more) and resilient, rather than more lethal to humans (which curtails its ability to spread), but a *lot* more infected humans as a proportion would likely translate into mor
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virulent - i don't think that word means what you think it means.
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"Infect or damage", but not specifically to kill. In otherwords, becoming more infectious which, in turn, means more spread of the virus.
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Yes but when something become more virulent it generally means it is more damaging or lethal not less.
Virulent diseases tend to spread less because people can tell others are sick and keep their distance and hosts die quickly before they spread disease. Less virulent illnesses spread more easily. Which is what you were saying - just inverted the severity
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There is no evolutionary pressure for the virus to kill fewer people thanks to the asymptomatic period. Besides, such mutations happen over centuries and more. Ebola is what, 40 years old by now, yet still as deadly as ever. Smallpox was tens of thousands of years old yet it killed a third of the infected on average.
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It's a +ssRNA virus. They mutate quite quickly (not as insanely fast as -ssRNA viruses, of which Ebola would be a member, but not much slower). Within the 9 months since its discovery, we already have 7 distinct strains of the virus. And I'd be really surprised if that's all. Smallpox is a dsDNA virus, they mutate much, much slower (in general, exceptions do apply).
Not all viruses are equal.
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Corvid, is a corona virus.
We have 10,000 of strains since the virus is existing.
Claiming that corvid19 now has "7 stains" is completely idiotic.
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If you excuse the rather crude parallel, Corona viruses is the felidae family, with SARS-CoV2 being the housecat and the various breeds thereof being the strains. In other words, yes, there's plenty of corona viruses but they are by no means the same virus.
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What are the chances it'll mutate into a less-lethal version of itself? ...
The mutations do not make the original version magically go away.
And mutations go both ways. Or myriads of ways. Easily you get in
som ppl a more deadly one. Ooops
globally speaking... (Score:4, Insightful)
Our main problem still is too many people.
Everyone who died in this pandemic has already been replaced. In fact, the current population growth replaced all those deaths that happened in over half a year in three days.
As a species, the pandemic is a non-event. Even if death rates would be 10x or 20x what they are, we'd simply out-breed it.
No country, including the USA, has suffered losses that matter much when you look at the whole picture.
It's more likely to be the opposite (Score:2)
People with options and educations don't just spit out kid after kid after kid. Rather than over population we're going to face the opposite, under population.
As for the virus, the reason we haven't suffered those losses is we're taken steps to contain the virus and so has everybody else. In Brazil where their pres
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Underpopulation? I'll believe that when I find affordable real estate within 100 miles of the capital again.
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Yes, they are.
Remember the point-of-view. From a personal or family perspective, those people are all individuals and unique and all. But from a global, species view, they are just as replaceable as all the other people who died in human history.
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Our main problem still is too many people.
"What most frequently meets our view (and occasions complaint) is our teeming population. Our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us... In very deed, pestilence, and famine, and wars, and earthquakes have to be regarded as a remedy for nations, as the means of pruning the luxuriance of the human race."
Tertullian, Second century CE [wikipedia.org]
To say the the problem is "too many people" limits you to solutions that involve reducing the human population.
When you focus on the actual problems such
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To say the the problem is "too many people" limits you to solutions that involve reducing the human population.
Tertullian was speaking about the known world, and ancient agriculture. We've found ways to increase yields dramatically, and we have expanded to cover all of the world.
The problem isn't agriculture. It is resources. Oil is going to be over one day - yes, the past estimates were wrong as more oil has consistently been found, be it IS a limited resource. Ores and rare earths are likewise. As is the environment we are destroying.
What you see as the "actual problems" isn't the root cause, it's just the effects
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Found the misanthrope.
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Guilty as charged.
My rational brain does understand, though, that you need a couple hundred idiots and assholes to breed one kind, smart and good person. It's only my emotional part that has trouble with the idea.
Re:globally speaking... (Score:4, Insightful)
I guess 100,000 children testing positive in a two week span is no big deal then. https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
Do you mean "big deal" as in there's a good chance they're building antibodies at the stage in their lives when they experience the mildest symptoms? Because then yes, you're correct that makes it a big deal.
Or did you mean "a big deal because I want people to be afraid?"
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How many children tested positive in the weeks before? May I hazard a guess? None? Because this was the first time children were tested and hence that means not that every 2 weeks 100,000 children get infected but rather that 100,000 children are infected?
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So they tested 100,000 children for shits and giggles?
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No, they probably tested the 100,000 children as part of the ongoing effort to test the population, then a bunch of reporters noticed that 100,000 children are infected and thought it would make a great eye catcher.
And I guess it worked.
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While I agree the issue is not as simple as suggested above, I disagree with your assessment here. You need to look at the overall demographics of covid deaths:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/... [cdc.gov]
The vast majority of those impacted are most certainly not still making major contributions to society. The resources expended on getting them to this point in their lives are irrelevant, since society has already gained most of what there is to gain from those people.
Don't get me wrong-- I'm not arguing that we shoul
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You're absolutely right that it varies a lot by culture. When I lived in Asia I found that older people contributed a lot to the community (with childcare, general community goodwill and maintenance, etc.). This is largely not the case in the West, and in the US in particular. Even if you look at the per-family situation: In Asian families (and elsewhere, too) it's very common for children to spend a lot of time with their grandparents. In Western culture it's not nearly as common, and not for nearly as muc
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Global Common Cold Cases reach 2000 Trillion (Score:2, Interesting)
Today another milestone was reached. Common Cold Infections broke the 2,000 Trillion (as in real Trillion, not American trillions, but rather real Trillions where a Trillion is a Billion Billion and a Billion is a Million Million) mark. It is estimated that the average Human on Planet Earth has been infected with the "Common Cold" at least 3 times each year of their life, and that Human's have lived on Planet Earth for more than a Billion years.
Despite record infections, there have been very few recorded
Does anyone believe the Chinese tally of 85k? (Score:2)
I find it very hard to believe that they were able to control a new, unknown disease so quickly with so few deaths.
But itâ(TM)s China, so who knows whatâ(TM)s really going on?
One in two thousand. (Score:2)
1 out of every 2,000 Americans alive at the start of the pandemic has now died from COVID19
Re:All because Chinese couldn't stop eating pangol (Score:5, Insightful)
Zoonoses happen. Blaming other people doesn't stop them.
Why wet markets? No refrigerators. (Score:2, Insightful)
If you feel you have to feed the racist troll and help pollute the discussion, then at least you can look for a meaningful Subject. But you're wasting your time if you think the Trumpist trolls care about truth or reality. They are insane or paid to fake it.
However, since you mentioned the Spanish Flu, I have some background information to share from the 2018 book Flu Hunter by Robert Webster. One of several such books I've read recently that described various kinds of contagious diseases and epidemics, u
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But you're wasting your time if you think the Trumpist trolls care about truth or reality. They are insane or paid to fake it.
They're not insane. Many of them have legitimate foundational concerns. They've just been brainwashed to support Trump without question, in the same way that the vast majority of Chinese citizens are brainwashed to support the CCP without question, or left-wing Americans have been brainwashed to despise anything Trump does without question. Dismissing them as insane or [even more laughably] being paid to share their views will not help to solve the problem.
One obvious solution approach would be to put international political pressure on Xi to replace all of the LBMs (and wet markets) with proper meat processing plants.
Wet markets work just fine every day in a fairly la
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One obvious solution approach would be to put international political pressure on Xi to replace all of the LBMs (and wet markets) with proper meat processing plants. Start with praise of "refrigerator culture"? Give him an external excuse to impose on the housewives?
If I was President, I would consider the pandemic an act of war and retaliate on a scale so large that they willingly took all steps to ensure that this never ever happens again.
Of course, that's probably one of the many good reasons I'm not President.
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That works great in China. In Lagos? Maybe not so much.
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There was a butcher with live birds a couple of blocks from my house when I was a kid growing up in the middle of Chicago. A lot of people in the neighborhoo
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I see you moved from denial to anger.
I honestly wonder what bargaining will look like.
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That'd be when we remind him that the previous one (H1N1) originated in America and it killed half a million people worldwide (and continues to do so).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandem... [cdc.gov]
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I know you are just trying to talk to them in their own language, but the suicide shit crosses a well-agreed-upon line and you should fuck off with that trash.
Re:All because Chinese couldn't stop eating pangol (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Tired of all the winning yet? (Score:5, Insightful)
If that is the case, just stating infection numbers isn't really that meaningful to me....
They should perchance, be reporting infections WITH complications and hospitalizations as the main number to track as that that's the only thing that is concerning.
If the numbers of people that are asymptotic throughout their infection period are high enough, then getting it through that crowd primarily while protecting the more at risk groups would be a good thing, no?
I've been seeing some articles suggesting that this may be the case that may be emerging in the near future....
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They should perchance, be reporting infections WITH complications and hospitalizations as the main number to track as that that's the only thing that is concerning.
Agreed but then people would quibble about what is a complication.
Deaths per million is probably the most important metric. The President says you can't do that. The POTUS eagerly wants everyone to celebrate his death per case found... which is pretty much meaningless.
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I don't think we're going to know much about the true spread of this contagion until we have widespread antibody testing. Basically needs to be part of all routine blood exams. (And yes, that will only tell us for the places that are wealthy enough to have blood exams.)
The thing that is still bothering me is that the solution approaches to deal with Covid-19 have been quite obvious from the git go, but that has not prevented most governments from messing it up. And how. Yes, there was a lot of confusion at
Re:Tired of all the winning yet? (Score:5, Insightful)
Deaths per million is probably the most important metric.
Harmed per million would be the best metric, where harm includes both death and any sort of serious, possibly-permanent, injury. Of course deaths are a lot easier to count. That's not the same as saying deaths are easy to count, just easier. Counting deaths is also hard; basically all deaths tend to get reported in most countries, but figuring out which of them were due to COVID is challenging.
Re:Tired of all the winning yet? (Score:5, Insightful)
Even some mild cases are turning out to have complications months and months later and may impact the infected for life. We won't know the full toll for years. We could very well end up with a large population of chronically ill... not quite to polio levels but the less we have the better.
Separating the "at-risk" population from those ore likely to have milder cases would requite actually diagnosing co-morbidities in countries with absolute shit for health care. (And here in the U.S. we have plenty of underdiagnosis and misdignosis.)
We don't know how long people stay immune to the virus after they have it. We could have a full wave of infections, reach "herd immunity" and then 6 months later everyone start getting sick again.
What we need to do is test, trace, and quarantine until the rate of spread is under control. Like everyone who knows what the fuck they are talking about has been saying from the beginning. You can't do that with 7-day test turnaround times. The single most effective thing anyone in power can do is get their respective countries' testing and contact tracing infrastructure up to snuff. The single most effective thing the average citizen can do is mask up and avoid unnecessary contact.
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But so far it seems that people in this category are a VERY small number of folks.
The vast majority so far it seems...that have the disease have no lasting effects, especially if they didn't require hospitalization.
This is true, we don't know for sure.
But so far, aside from a VERY few anecdotal articles/statement
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it seems that people in this category are a VERY small number of folks.
Maybe this recent JAMA study [jamanetwork.com] will concern you more:
In this cohort study including 100 [unselected] patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.
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Those sorts of things have already been found constitutional - well not halting interstate travel per se, but as part of a quarantine. The devil is in the details, though; the government wouldn't be allowed do those things if the courts found them unreasonable or unnecessary. The stat
Real risk (Score:2)
With over 20% out of work, this caused panic and desperation amongst the populace. Businesses have been killed and fortunes lost. People are out
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Case and test numbers still matter even if only number of tests is reported because the percentage of positive tests is a good indicator of whether you're only testing obviously bad cases and whether you're testing enough people to catch a significant number of those that may be spreading it.
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Do you have a citation for this?
But assuming for now this is completely true - you feel your county's actions invalidate all covid medical statistics everywhere, regardless of integrity or competence?
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They should perchance, be reporting infections WITH complications and hospitalizations as the main number to track as that that's the only thing that is concerning.
In California that is the number we are tracking, more specifically "number of available ICU beds" to know whether we should open up more, or close more.
It's also worth mentioning that doctors are getting a lot better at treating COVID.
Tired of self delusion yet (Score:2)
In any case, the number of people infected with the flue is still more at 39,000,000 lower estimate. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/... [cdc.gov] Covid is not a game and it does take lives, but is no Black Death. However, having honest conversations about relative danger and acceptable losses can get one deplatformed, or more importantly in the twisted minds of
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I'd consider you an acceptable loss, but that's besides the point now.
And yes, I agree. One of the key reasons the US is in the sorry state it's in is that its politicians used the pandemic as a propaganda tool instead of working on solving it. That alone should give you pause and make you wonder whether these buffoons are working for or against you.
You're currently looking at 3 out of every million of US Americans dying every single day. If this goes on for a year, you have 1 out of 1000 people dead. Annua
Re:Tired of all the winning yet? (Score:5, Insightful)
If infections ARE rising quickly, but most of them are NOT serious or even noticed...we need to know that.
As that is a good thing....and would bring us closer to heard immunity.
Yes, I know...we don't know for sure that it is long term, BUT...unless this virus is so unlike almost every other one ever encounter in the world, longer term immunity should be the norm....and hell, even if you get re-infected, it isn't generally going to be serous and who cares about that?
And while it seems that possibly anti-bodies are fading after a few months, there is evidence being written out there that the T cells with MUCH longer memory are being generated and in circulation that would help give long term immunity once infected.
Apparently TCell immunity is more difficult to test for, but emerging studies I've read in recent weeks seems to be leaning towards this as being the prime vector for immunity.
For me...I wish there was more push and more availability for antibody and Tell testing. I think that would be much more inforestive.
If I"ve already had it, I'd like to know....I'd be out giving plasma and more apt to go outside about my life in a more regular manner....if I found I had NOT had it, then, I'd keep indoors longer, etc....
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if you really want to know it do bad, what exactly hinders you from taking an antibody test?
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I've not heard of them being offered in my area.
And I've heard most of them are dubious, unless it is a real blood draw test...so not sure what to ask for.
And I don't think the ones that show T-Cell exposure are available to the public at all.....although from what I read they should be, as that it sounds like a great tool that may almost be definitive to answer if you've had prior exposure.
We are probably not going to get herd immunity (Score:5, Insightful)
More over as others have pointed out even mild cases seem to have long term negative health impacts. So again, we don't want Herd immunity. Heard immunity more or less means the weak die off. We're not animals, we're people, we don't want that.
No, you're misunderstanding (Score:2)
A universally administered vaccine could solve this by giving us "instant" herd immunity, but without that the virus won't spread fast enough to infect everyone. Again, this assumes
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Longer term immunity is NOT the norm. Many viruses reinfect us regularly, e.g. the common cold group (which includes some coronaviruses). Others can bypass our immune responses with minor mutations, like the flu does. There are even some where our learned immune response makes the second reinfection worse.
We just don't yet know how SARS-CoV-2 will play out. We've already seen some reinfections in China and South Korea so we know that's possible, though at least they seem relatively mild cases. But that may
Re:Tired of all the winning yet? (Score:5, Informative)
Long term immunity is the norm.
What you are not immune too is new strains of a virus.
A virus turns into a new strain when it mutates quickly and mutates to a point where its different enough from the one your T-Cell immunity would recognize.
We know that SARS-CoV-2 mutates very slowly. There are no new strains. There are 2 very slightly different mutations.
If it does not mutate into a new strain every season, which it definitely does not seem like it will, your immunity will still be there to recognize it.
Sars-CoV-2 is 76% similar to SARS-CoV. This gives us lots of indications in its similarities.
People who have recovered from SARS-CoV are still immune 17 years later. AND tests have been conducted indicating that survivors of SARS-CoVs antibodies can fight of SARS-CoV-2.
This is all very good news.
There are NO known cases of anyone in the world getting infected twice. NOT ONE.
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You have confused a few things, so I will clarify them for you.
SARS-CoV- 2 is the Virus. There are no different strains. Though a few different slight mutations have been noticed.
COVID-19 is the disease caused by the virus.
The article you posted classified COVID-19 patients by 6 groups by symptoms.
There is not one mention of the word strain in the article, and there is no allusion to it either. It was simply a survey of the data of patients and classification by symptoms of those with the COVID-19 disease.
I
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and more apt to go outside about my life in a more regular manner.
and you may still be infectious and a danger to the public... Being asymptomatic does not mean you will not be able to pass it on. It means you show no obvious signs of infection.
Isolation of asymptomatic patients may be necessary to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2
-source: https://jamanetwork.com/journa... [jamanetwork.com]
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I see your sarcasmometer needs a new battery.
Re:Love the winning! (Score:5, Insightful)
The case-fatality rates is NOT a measure of general governance quality... it is measure of how well our health care system works period. I see you trying to sneak governance in there. The death rate per capita is the measure of the general leadership and governance quality and there we suck especially at the later stage of the pandemic.
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I would've thought so too a year ago. However, seeing such vast disparities between different American states [imgur.com], I'm now of different opinion.
Why is deaths per population a "better" reflection of the government, than deaths per infected? As I already wrote, the number of infections depends highly on the attitude towards governments. Americans, being
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Your figures will overtake Italy in four and Spain in 6 weeks. What stupid metric will you pull out of your yellow-blue painted arse then to excuse your orange overlord?
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The case fatality rate is utterly irrelevant, only the total fatality rate matters and I have already predicted the USA overtaking France aÃmost to a day a month before it happened. And don't you dare saying that the USA is doing anywhere near as well as Germany. We had fewer than 10000 dead and our average amount of daily deaths is 5. The USA has 17.9 times as many dead in total and 200 goddamn times as many daily deaths. You aren't even in the same galaxy as Germany.
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That's, like, your opinion, man...
The US is eighth on that measure [npr.org], hardly "the worst". And it is explained, as I keep saying, by Americans' attitude towards government more than by anything else.
It was not Trump, who caused kids to go to Spring Break [forbes.com] — we don't have a monarch, the President has no power to stop people from vacationing. Nor is it Trump, who makes people reject mask-mandates — he was advising such co
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nope, not like my opinion.
https://www.businessinsider.co... [businessinsider.com]
it is about the same interview by the way. As for being number 8, true it is not the worst, and I doubt that the USA will be the worst hit country once the pandemic will be over, but it will be in the top 5 by october. Here is why:
https://slashdot.org/comments.... [slashdot.org]
two months ago the prognosis was 200000 deaths by october, now it has shifted to mid september. At 200000 deaths the death rate will be between Spain and Italy. Hence my prediction, 4 weeks
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You totally neglect Trump's powerful influence over this "attitude towards governments" you point out is the issue.
If Trump early on had consistently stressed that stopping the spread of the virus is a vital national economic/security issue this attitude would be different. He should have been stressing that wearing masks, social distancing is our patriotic duty. He holds sway over a good 40% of the population that look towards him in almost cult like fascination to what attitudes they should align with.
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Trump again, heh? On March 30th, Trump advised people to employ face-coverings [npr.org] — scarves for want of anything better. On that same day, WHO were officially advising [cnn.com] against it — even claiming, that they have evidence (without presenting any), that masks can be harmful. CDC was parroting the same advice [marketwatch.com] too. Whom are you blaming, again?
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That is why I put consistently in bold. Trump is all over the map and is inconsistent day-by-day. He has resisted being seen in a mask until way late. He failed lead by example. He even chided those that wear masks are probably doing so 'to signal disapproval of him'... now which Trump supporter is going to wear a mask in public after he made that statement?
Trump, more than any president I have ever seen has a power influence over attitudes with his supporters. Here is an example. Republicans (and I am on
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Also the case fatality rate is always lower right in the middle of the outbreak because deaths are delayed compared to new infections. So the case fatality rate that Trump is touting looks good precisely because the US is doing so badly. It's like a runner taking a snapshot of a race in which he is closer to the finish line and claiming he was in the lead while ignoring the fact that he was a lap behind at that point.
So it would be nonsensical to compare the current case fatality rate of the US to those
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The case fatality rate is a measure of precisely nothing because it neither corrects for the different ratio of testing nor for the lag between the cases and the deaths. American case fatality rate is getting lower for one reason only - more testing finds more mild cases.
This is why only the stupid care about the case fatality rates.
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Why then, is CFR over two times worse in CT, NY, and NJ than the national average? Five times worse than in Florida?
It may not be perfect, but there is nothing better to compare by — it is certainly better than total deaths (unadjusted per capita [tampabay.com]). If you and yours must blame the Orange Man, you have to compare — and CFR is the best
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Again, for those slow on the uptake. The case fatality rate is a rate between two values that are abourt as closely related as the ratio between the number of pirates and the average earth temperature.
You cannot even have a case death ratio for one country because unless a case is closed you cannot know whether it will end up as death or as a recovery. The only way to have a meaningful ratio between cases and deaths is using the number of closed cases.
This ratio is still not comparable between countries bec
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I'm not so sure yet whether CFR is a good metric. I honestly cannot figure out why so far, and this really puzzles me, but when you look at India with a CFR of less than 2% while at the same time even beating the USA in daily deaths, I can't say with a straight face that I'd want to be competing in that field.
And given India's abysmal testing rates, it's likely their CFR is even better. While, and I hope we can at least agree on that, their hospitals are very likely less well equipped.
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Re: Could be worse (Score:3, Funny)
That isn't a very good reason.
Gravity's a pretty poor fucking reason why I don't have a spaceship. Nonetheless...
Re:Could be worse (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Could be worse (Score:5)
Re:Could be worse (Score:5, Informative)
That way it works is, for the federal government to have the power to do something, it has to be authorized in the constitution. If there is nothing in the constitution about health care, then the Feds have no authority to do anything about it.
Re:Could be worse (Score:5, Informative)
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Re:Trust the WHO (Score:4, Insightful)
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Working on it. Unless Brazil, Peru and Chile can stay strong, you can be number 1 in per capita, too, no later than Q1 21.