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Medicine

Covid-19 Immunity From Antibodies May Last Only Months, New Study Suggests (cnn.com) 218

CNN shares some bad news. "After people are infected with the novel coronavirus, their natural immunity to the virus could decline within months, a new pre-print paper suggests." The paper was co-authored by 37 researchers from seven different institutions: The paper, released on the medical server medrxiv.org on Saturday and not yet published in a peer-reviewed medical journal, suggests that antibody responses may start to decline 20 to 30 days after Covid-19 symptoms emerge. Antibodies are the proteins the body makes to fight infection...

Since early on in the pandemic, the World Health Organization has warned that people who have had Covid-19 are not necessarily immune from getting the virus again. Yet the new study had some limitations, including that more research is needed to determine whether similar results would emerge among a larger group of patients and what data could show over longer periods of time when it comes to infection with the coronavirus...

"The report is the latest in a growing chain of evidence that immunity to COVID-19 is short-lived," reports the San Francisco Chronicle: A Chinese study published June 18 in the journal Nature Medicine also showed coronavirus antibodies taking a nosedive. The study of 74 patients, conducted by Chongqing Medical University, a branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, showed that more than 90% exhibited sharp declines in the number of antibodies within two to three months after infection... Studies of four seasonal coronaviruses that cause colds show that although people develop antibodies, the immune response declines over time and people become susceptible again. Scientists suspect that the severity of cold symptoms is reduced by previous infections.
The Chronicle reports this new information suggests two implications:
  • "Waning antibodies affect vaccine development," said Shannon Bennett, the chief of science at San Francisco's California Academy of Sciences. "Where natural immunity doesn't really develop or last, then vaccine programs are not likely to be easily successful or achievable..."
  • The Chronicle adds, "Whatever happens, epidemiologists hope the recent reports about antibody viability put to rest the concept embraced by many young people of herd immunity, where the disease can't find any more victims because so many people have survived infections and must be immune. 'This attitude that if I go out there and just get exposed — get it over with — then I'll be immune is a dangerous presumption,' Bennett said. Now more than ever."

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Covid-19 Immunity From Antibodies May Last Only Months, New Study Suggests

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  • Given a large enough programme of immunization, herd immunity could be achieved for a long enough interval (weeks) to clear the infection entirely from the population. Then a strict policy of quarantine for travelers or suspected new cases would prevent new spreads.

    Depends on the local mores of course, it's the sort of thing that works great in Japan, not so much in the U.S.

    • by fintux ( 798480 )

      The initial data from the Astrazeneca vaccine shows that the level of antibodies is 1.8-2.7 times higher than that from the infection. It also triggers T-cell mediated immunity. So looks, fortunately, that this would be one of those vaccines that provides better immunity than an infection. (There are others like pneumococcus, tetanus, Hib, HPV). In addition, the virus might do some tricks to the body that makes the immunity wane faster, for example, it could kill some cells that are crucial for maintaining

    • so no, 60-90 days won't be enough. It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the rest of the world is forced to cut us off. No more trips to Europe save for the wealthy and well connected. India will still send the H1-Bs, but they won't let them come back. Canada & Mexico will Build That Wall Trump's been wanting though, so I guess there's that. Again, won't stop people immigrating to the US but it'll stop us going there.
      • You live in a bizarre world. In your world the US seems to be the only place people are infected. No where else has it. No where else has deaths every day. No where else has increasing numbers of cases.

        For good or bad, you're simply wrong. It's called a "pandemic" for a reason. Please go look up the definition of that word.

        And no, the virus so doesn't care about your socialist utopia. Socialists are just as likely to get infected and die as anyone else.

        • by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

          In your world the US seems to be the only place people are infected. No where else has it. No where else has deaths every day. No where else has increasing numbers of cases.

          For good or bad, you're simply wrong. It's called a "pandemic" for a reason. Please go look up the definition of that word.

          He's more right than you.

          Europe is that shrinking yellow part of the bar graph. [europa.eu]

          Canada [ourworldindata.org] has rates comparable to what it had in March, not the all-time peaks seen in the US (add the US to the graph, why don't you).

          And

          • Europe is that shrinking yellow part of the bar graph. [europa.eu]

            Nice link.

        • You live in a bizarre world. In your world the US seems to be the only place people are infected. No where else has it. No where else has deaths every day. No where else has increasing numbers of cases.

          For good or bad, you're simply wrong. It's called a "pandemic" for a reason. Please go look up the definition of that word.

          And no, the virus so doesn't care about your socialist utopia. Socialists are just as likely to get infected and die as anyone else.

          So you think closing borders is a pointless exercise in infection control?

        • by dryeo ( 100693 )

          That's true, here in socialist land, with the reopening, we're up to a couple of a dozen new cases a day and a death a week with our 5.1 million people. Our problem is Americans, they claim to need to go home to Alaska and then take a fucking holiday, including going into small towns and shopping or for the boaters, small marinas. They also fly in, I think there were 2 flights last week with a sick American spreading the virus.

      • so no, 60-90 days won't be enough. It's going to be interesting to see what happens when the rest of the world is forced to cut us off. No more trips to Europe save for the wealthy and well connected. India will still send the H1-Bs, but they won't let them come back. Canada & Mexico will Build That Wall Trump's been wanting though, so I guess there's that. Again, won't stop people immigrating to the US but it'll stop us going there.

        Exactly nobody I have talked to wants our border with the US to open to regular travel anytime soon. They have 8 times our deaths per capita and rising. Keeping the border closed is actually top of mind for many here as we adjust to our new normal.

        Nobody clamoring for a southern wall yet, but if it gets to that I'm sure we'll be fine paying for it ourselves.

        • by dryeo ( 100693 )

          Actually, here in BC, we'd really like to build a southern wall or at least a barricade as the border is wide open around Peace Arch park along 0 ave. Seems that the treaty of Ghent prevents us from building a wall.

          • Seems that the treaty of Ghent prevents us from building a wall.

            I'm surprised Trump has not threatened to pull out and renegotiate the Treaty of Ghent yet.

            /not even being sarcastic.

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Unluckily there's a treaty stopping us from building a wall, or even a barricade. Treaty of Ghent that was signed in 1814.
        The biggest virus threat here in BC is fucking Americans lying and coming into the country.

    • by Holi ( 250190 )
      Do you honestly believe that you will get a large enough percentage of the population to take a vaccine in the US? The number of people who are distrustful of medicine seems to increase each year.
  • by smoot123 ( 1027084 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @12:34PM (#60304403)

    I heard this too and despaired. "Oh no, we won't have a vaccine!" Then my biologist daughter pointed out, no kidding, you don't keep antibodies in your blood for long. Creating proteins is biologically expensive, antibodies are proteins, so your body stops creating new ones. This is apparently pretty common behavior.

    So read the article(s) further where they talk about B- an T-cells. Things might be bleak or this might be confirming something we already knew about most viral infections. Frustratingly, six months into this thing, we still don't know what seems like some pretty important facts, whether we develop immunity to reinfection, how strong is that immunity, and how long it lasts. Without knowing this, it's really hard to come up with a sensible action plan.

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by DogDude ( 805747 )
        Public policies and an economic collapse will lead to Marxist revolutions. Read, Police State.

        What does this mean, exactly? It seems like you're jamming a lot of unrelated words together.
      • by chthon ( 580889 )

        Methinks the police state is truly and well established with the right.

      • -Long term, we will have to evolve to have a more bat-like immune system.

        Well, shoot, I was hoping to evolve into an actual bat. That'd be super fun.

      • -Darwin in action. The virus will grind down the population indefinitely.

        You seem convinced that this is a major disaster in the making for humanity.

        For what it's worth, if the USA is any guideline (note that for all that the Europeans like to point and laugh, the US's death rate from covid-19 is lower than most European countries' death rates), then covid-19 is going to lower average life expectancy from 80+ to 80-slightly-lower-plus. As of now, if we assume worst case (all deaths were infants), covid-19

        • Most? There are over 40 countries in Europe. The USA is number 9 worldwide, soon to be number 8. Do the math.

    • These headlines are nonsense written by people who care about nothing other than clicks.

      Yet another example of how advertising is a net negative for the internet.
      • These headlines are nonsense written by people who care about nothing other than clicks.

        Yet another example of how advertising is a net negative for the internet.

        Well, I think you could say that about most commercial news publications in the last 200 years. They were writing skimpy, alarming, and/or misleading science stories for decades before the Interwebs came around.

        If I'm feeling charitable, I'd just say it's hard for someone outside the field and who doesn't have a science background to write accurate and catchy science stories.

        • No, older media required you to buy it, which is a higher barrier. If you buy a newspaper and it turns out to be a total lie, you're not going to buy it again. Whereas with clickbait, people do click again because the barrier is so low.

          To demonstrate that quality has decreased, I'll describe a technique that has become common in the last couple years. Authors write stories, then use a headline that is for a completely different story. For example, you might see a headline, "You won't believe what Trump j
    • exactly and i've saying this for 4 months myself. whether or not we always carry antibodies is not the only aspect of immunity. it reflects a "full" immunity, but not the aspect where we don't carry antibodies but our immune cells are able to regenerate them very quickly because they know what they're dealing with.

      This is why some colds (a few of which are coronavirus-based) don't last as long some years we get them - we've faced it before, it just took our bodies a day or two to ramp up, as opposed to 10 days during which the thing is spreading out of control. Flu is like this, which is why they always say "you might get a 'mild case'" - that mild case might be because of a mutation, or just because you aren't carrying antibodies in your system anymore.

      a mild case of covid that only lasts a couple of days would be a HUGE improvement over the current situation, and if that's what the vaccine gets us, outside of getting 6-month boosters 'til the end of time, that's still huge progress.

    • Dude antibodies have nothing to do with anything. There are many vaccines that last a lifetime or at least decades. Smallpox, measles, mumps vaccines for example. Thats because those vaccines cause long lasting memory t-cells to exist. There are other solutions for vaccines too. We can make vaccines for this. It may take some time and testing but it's solvable. There are a bunch of different approaches all of which can work and would provide long term immunity.

      • Dude antibodies have nothing to do with anything.

        I'll assume you don't literally mean that. Antibodies are evidence an organism is or recently fought off an infection. They're part of the mechanism used to do the fighting. So the definitely have something to do with COVID infections. I'm sure you actually understand that.

        My point is, my mental model, and I'm sure this is held by many other people who don't work with immune systems all day, was antibodies just sorta accumulate in your blood. I hadn't thought about whether they need to be replaced (in retro

    • Typically:

      During an immune response, B and T cells create memory cells. These are clones of the specific B and T cells that remain in the body, holding information about each threat the body has been exposed to! This gives our immune system memory.

      FD: I'm not a practicing conspiracy theorist. But. If the incredibly well-adapted Covid-19 virus, born of a open air meat market near the Wuhan institute of Virology that conducted extensive research on deadly bat viruses, turns out to somehow bypass human immune systems that evolved to combat viral infections for thousands of generations, I may reapply for my tinfoil membership card.

  • by msauve ( 701917 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @12:38PM (#60304429)
    If that's the case, we might expect some of the early infectees (there were over 2 million three months ago, ample time for them to get past it and antibodies to decline) to get it again. I'm not aware of a single confirmed case of re-infection.
    • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @01:01PM (#60304525)

      I'm not aware of a single confirmed case of re-infection.

      Japan has one confirmed case [sky.com], while South Korea had eleven [koreatimes.co.kr]. China also reported reinfections back in February, but I don't know that anything came of them.

      • by msauve ( 701917 )
        Thanks. But, despite the headlines, both of those stories talk about re-activation being more likely, not re-infection.

        Earlier health authorities here have said the virus was highly likely to have been reactivated, instead of the people being reinfected, as they tested positive again in a relatively short time after being released from quarantine.

      • by Calydor ( 739835 )

        Back in February the tests we had were so disturbingly full of false positives and negatives they were practically worse than guessing. I don't really have much faith in reports of re-infection from back then.

    • by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @02:06PM (#60304749)

      If that's the case, we might expect some of the early infectees (there were over 2 million three months ago, ample time for them to get past it and antibodies to decline) to get it again. I'm not aware of a single confirmed case of re-infection.

      There's a bunch of suspected cases of re-infection, the problem is that it's almost impossible to confirm a case of re-infection because it's very difficult to confirm that someone is completely cured.

  • T-Cells (Score:4, Informative)

    by flyingfsck ( 986395 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @12:54PM (#60304491)
    It is not only about antibodies. Fortunately our immune systems are rather complex.
    • by Cylix ( 55374 )

      The first mistake is assuming a “news” channel is reporting anything remotely honest.

  • The body doesn't need the antibodies once the virus is gone, so why should it keep making them?

    But the immune response still knows how to make them as needed, doesn't it?

    So if you should be exposed again later, wouldn't your body build up the necessary defenses more quickly than it did the first time?

  • by ivec ( 61549 ) on Saturday July 18, 2020 @01:12PM (#60304561) Homepage

    Why focus on Antibodies? For coronavirus strains, it appears that T-cell immunity is a key factor for persistent immunity.
    See https://www.linkedin.com/posts... [linkedin.com]

  • "However, the role T-cell responses generated through either infection or vaccination play in controlling disease cannot be discounted in these studies and defining further the correlates and longevity of vaccine protection is needed. "

    For all the science knows cell mediated immunity is the most important part of immunity. Unfortunately tests for cell mediated immunity are much more ambiguous. Testing for antibodies is nice and easy ... and basing theories on evidence which is nice and easy to get is al

  • ... a timed release implant of killed SARS-CoV-2 viruses (or whatever the immunization consists of). Something to keep your immune response on its toes for a longer period of time.

  • invest my money?
  • seems to indicate otherwise: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/... [cdc.gov]
    • Ayup, according to the table, the peak of disease is over and done and the death rate is near zero, but the first rule of the Covid19 epidemic is that one should not confuse people with facts. The only thing that Covid fanatics want to hear is: "Millions will die! There will be bodies lying in the streets! Orange man bad!"

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