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China Medicine United States

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says (bloomberg.com) 374

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it's suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials. From a report: The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China's public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China's numbers are fake. The report was received by the White House last week, one of the officials said. The outbreak began in China's Hubei province in late 2019, but the country has publicly reported only about 82,000 cases and 3,300 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That compares to more than 189,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths in the U.S., which has the largest publicly reported outbreak in the world.
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China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

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  • by gDLL ( 1413289 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:12AM (#59897222)
    I trust the state, if the chinese state says something then i believe it. It comes from an official after all !
    • The media has been reporting an accumulating "death" number, but it lags behind reality because it's "death reports" instead.

      • by AleRunner ( 4556245 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @12:03PM (#59897504)

        The media has been reporting an accumulating "death" number, but it lags behind reality because it's "death reports" instead.

        That's clear and there are lots of discrepancies in lots of countries including China. Many of these come from e.g. changing the way things are counted, for example just a few days ago the NHS added people known to have died of Coronavirus but outside hospitals who weren't included before [bbc.co.uk].

        Now in China I'd expect there to normally be lying on multiple levels. E.g. local officials would like to report good news at all times and hide when they mess up (which is what happened in November). E.g there's been plenty of mass scale, strategic lying about the number of Uyghurs locked away and what is done to them [bbc.co.uk] sanctioned from the top. However in this case the top has sent a clear message that people should be truthful so it might be different. We can't just assume that China is lying; we want some real evidence either way.

        What's really interesting here is that it seems a majority of the people claiming China is lying are actually lying lots themselves. There are multiple weird claims that 21 million people died. This has actually been researched [republicworld.com] and is based on a misrepresentation of data which shows that 21 million phone subscriptions were cancelled (relatively small, but definitely not negligable in a country of over 1billion). This was originally in an Epoch Times article which is now deleted.

        So we're left with a question of who to trust? People who are known to lie quite often or people who we can see are actually lying this time. I'd prefer the answer neither, but given no choice and little contrary evidence, I can believe the Chinese government more than the people pushing this rumour. Given their proposed cure to the pandemic [youtu.be], I'm fairly convinced about this.

        • by larryjoe ( 135075 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @12:37PM (#59897704)

          So we're left with a question of who to trust? People who are known to lie quite often or people who we can see are actually lying this time. I'd prefer the answer neither, but given no choice and little contrary evidence, I can believe the Chinese government more than the people pushing this rumour. Given their proposed cure to the pandemic [youtu.be], I'm fairly convinced about this.

          For me, the various rumors across the internet deserve skepticism. The Chinese government numbers also deserve skepticism, but at least they're somewhat easily to understand given the motivations of the government, which include controlling the disease in China and preserving public order, which in China means preserving the ability of the government to control any semblance of an uprising.

          We already knew all of this previously. The news today is that US intelligence agencies have determined that China is underreporting its numbers. That is not the same as confirming internet rumors. My assumption is that the report contains much more detailed information detail and provenance that what is in the press leaks. People are right to also be skeptical of US intelligence, but that skepticism should be considered in light of the motivations for the US government. I don't think this is just throwing shade on China, because vague press leaks of a secret report are a very inefficient way of effecting propaganda.

          We'll see if Trump believes his spy agencies this time.

          • There was a time I thought the same - surely in the back rooms they have more evidence for the Iraq War than what they're telling the public.

            And nope! They didn't!

            • Or about Russian collusion? But yeah, it's true, I don't trust unnamed sources of mystery data either. This report doesn't seem to add much data to the question.

              I think there are a lot of open questions. I think there are a few things that look suspicious about the data, too, but we may only ever figure this out 10 years from now in epidemiology papers that have had a long time to go over what happened and how that affects the data we have.

              That said, it's interesting that HK and Taiwan, who don't trust C

        • by shanen ( 462549 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @01:38PM (#59898056) Homepage Journal

          Mostly agree with you. Also want to note that your comment seems to be standing up to the moderation, so I won't quote it against possible censor mods.

          The aspect of this topic that interested me is how "our" liars now want to believe "our" intelligence services since they are reporting what "our" so-called leaders want to believe about Chinese mendacity (which has NEVER been in doubt). I can't decide if it's more like projection or the Dunning Kruger effect. They know how much they lie, so they assume everyone else lies just as much. Or maybe they sincerely think they are experts in recognizing when they are being lied to because they believe they themselves are such expert liars? (Yes, the "they" references could go every which way in those last two sentences.)

          I'm reserving judgment on the accuracy of the Chinese statistics about Covid-19. I used to believe (and I wrote it out loud, too) that the Chinese were hiding a lot of bad news, but now I'm waffling. I don't think they can permanently conceal large numbers of Covid-19 deaths because too many people inside China would personally know the victims and eventually those reports of vanished people would get out, along with the hard evidence. Right now I'm inclined to believe that Xi recognized he needed to know the truth about SARS-CoV-2 and he demanded the full truth from everyone in his government.

          However I'm still skeptical about how quickly Xi figured out the severity of the problem. I'm sure he was suspicious about how bad it was before he told the rest of the world. Yes, they were only suspicions at the time, but if he had shared them, then at least the countries that had listened and reacted might have responded more effectively and quickly. Especially the quickly part.

          Actually, as regards the quick and rather extreme response, I think it tells us a lot. In particular, I think the Chinese have carefully planned for this sort of disaster. But not just for bio-accidents like Covid-19. I think the Chinese have complete plans about how to respond to bio-weapons. (Actually, I'm not yet ready to eliminate the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 was a diabolical bio-weapon. But then we'd have to try and figure out whose...)

          Meanwhile, Trump's total lack of planning continues to show. It's a cross being looking for opportunities in crisis, malevolence, and random mendacity. Even allowing for Trump being Trump, I was rather surprised by today's fresh attack on ObamaCare. This is NOT a good time to be attacking any aspect of the healthcare system, but my initial theory is that one of the puppeteers saw this as another opportunity to gut the ACA in the Covid-19 crisis... "Just when people are most concerned about their medical coverage, let's block medical insurance for as many people as possible!" Or is it possible the medical insurance company lobbyists are really that stupid? Or that the medical insurance companies are in such dire straits because of Covid-19? I certainly wouldn't be surprised to hear the medical insurance companies are begging for federal help, but I haven't yet read anything on that topic (which leads to the theory they are keeping their heads down for now).

          • by spth ( 5126797 )

            Actually, as regards the quick and rather extreme response, I think it tells us a lot. In particular, I think the Chinese have carefully planned for this sort of disaster.[...][

            Of course. So did Korea. After all the had had SARS and the avian flu in the region, so preparing for something similar made obvious sense.

            Even Western countries did so to some degree (see e.g. the 2012 plan on a pandemic by a SARS variant by German RKI - very similar to what is happening now, though they assumed a higher death rate back then), but the difference seems mostly that is was taken less seriously in the West and not considered a priority at top level.

      • No amount of fudging of the chinese numbers would have made any difference to the Whitehouse's need for planning and action. This is merely Fox news style blame shifting.
        How did Bloomberg get the report if it was classified? Why are all the quotes from Administration officials who evidently know this was leaked on purpose to blame shift.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jellomizer ( 103300 )

      The difference between Communism and Socialism is that in Communism the Citizens for the Government. In Socialism, the Government works for the Citizens.

      Communism has self-interest in elevating the government to be all-knowing and all-powerful as the people will need strong leadership because they work for it.
      Successful Socialism which may on paper seem similar has a strong democracy behind it, and the Government is working for the benefit of the People. This means they are better off telling people bad ne

      • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:56AM (#59897454)

        Old Joke:

        Capitalism is exploitation of man by man.

        Communism is the exact opposite of it.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Successful Socialism

        has never happened. It always breaks back down to capitalism (the Nordic model - strong capitalist economies with Government spending heavily focused on a social safety net) or Communism/outright dictatorships (USSR, China, Cuba, Venezuela). "Socialism" is a fleeting moment as a country moves to one of these other results - it is not a stable result at all.

        • You not liking socialist success doesn't make previously purely socialist countries like the nordics less succesful. And the historical evidence clearly shows that moves toward capitalism have only invited corruption and accelerated loss of resources.
          It may not be the best choice anymore, but given a democracy, it is what people invariably choose, since it is well understood.
          The lack of socialism is a clear indicator of a lack of democracy, since the masses would invariably choose to level the playing field

        • by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @12:32PM (#59897672)

          Successful Socialism

          has never happened. It always breaks back down to capitalism (the Nordic model - strong capitalist economies with Government spending heavily focused on a social safety net) or Communism/outright dictatorships (USSR, China, Cuba, Venezuela). "Socialism" is a fleeting moment as a country moves to one of these other results - it is not a stable result at all.

          ..and the utopia of pure completely unregulated capitalism with zero government hasn't been successfully implemented either. It always degenerated into dictatorship or monarchy by him who could afford the most and best mercenaries. You can just as easily argue that the socialism in the Nordic countries is successful because of it borrowed ideas capitalist element as you can argue that the capitalism in these countries is as successful as it is because it borrows ideas from socialism. The reason for that duality being that the Scandinavians managed to create a hybrid that works better than both of the models it is based on.

        • Denmark says otherwise.

          You can have a strong capitalism for economic growth, and you can use the power and money created from the economic growth to support strong social programs.
          Denmark as some of the strong private property laws in the world.

          Your post is born from idiocy and ignorance.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    Yeah? So is Trump. And he is slowing down delivery of supplies while he waits for a higher bid at the brokers' auctions.

  • Past tense? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:15AM (#59897240)

    "China Concealed" - why is it worded this way when it's plain they continue to conceal.

    • by amorsen ( 7485 )

      Indeed, China's numbers are generally false. That is one of the numerous (sorry) problems of that kind of authoritarian society -- even those in charge who asked for the numbers cannot trust the numbers they get.

      However, while we know that China's numbers are fake, we also know that they are not currently suffering from the kind of outbreak seen in Italy or the US. The Wuhan outbreak showed that China is unable to completely hide what happens in overloaded hospitals. Maybe they will again in the future, but

      • we also know that they are not currently suffering from the kind of outbreak seen in Italy or the US.

        We do?

        From reports I've seen from people in China, they are denying the situation is under control at all, and it may be much worse there still than anything in the U.S., or maybe even Italy (quite a wide spread between the two as Italy has 10x more deaths per million people than the U.S. does).

        • we also know that they are not currently suffering from the kind of outbreak seen in Italy or the US.

          We do?

          From reports I've seen from people in China, they are denying the situation is under control at all, and it may be much worse there still than anything in the U.S., or maybe even Italy (quite a wide spread between the two as Italy has 10x more deaths per million people than the U.S. does).

          Please share those reports with us why don't you? ... Not that it really matters. The US, population 326 million, will by some time next week overtake the EU, population 512 million, in the absolute number of infections because the EU-27 have been on lock down for the last few weeks while the US was still not acting. So, even if the Chinese are lying through their teeth about the number of infected the US is still not looking very good even when compared to another densely populated region (that isn't China

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by IamNaNIam ( 6733196 )

      "China Concealed" - why is it worded this way when it's plain they continue to conceal.

      Weird! I totally agree with you on this one Super Ken Doll.

      It was the US who "concealed" the extent of infections by purposely not testing. China lied. There is a difference! Not significant, but there is a difference!

      Also, that China lied in no way absolves Trump of how badly he has handled this. Many, many people will die needlessly because of Trump's narcissism. What China does has no bearing on that, but guys like you want to talk about China every time Trump's performance on this comes up. So now, eve

      • in no way absolves Trump of how badly he has handled this.

        The alternative are the Democrats who were telling people to go out and party at the end of February, after Trump had shut down air travel from China...

        Trump has not been perfect of course, but the U.S. locked down about as fast as was imaginable, at a timeframe ahead of when any other president would have acted. That was what really mattered was the sudden stop of large events, and telling people to stay at home as much as possible. That mattered

        • The alternative are the Democrats who were telling people to go out and party at the end of February

          Citation please.

          after Trump had shut down air travel from China...

          Which was closing the barn door after the horses were gone. He then turned around and said it was like the flu (didn't know that people died from the flu, even though his fucking grandfather died from the Spanish flu).

          Trump has not been perfect of course

          Haha! I bet that took a lot of courage for you to write. Did you feel ill admitting he acted less than perfectly?

          Let's see what he has said:

          January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

        • Trump has not been perfect of course,

          Wash your mouth out with soap and say three Hail Marys.
          We won't have that kind of talk in here.

        • by geekoid ( 135745 )

          "but the U.S. locked down about as fast as was imaginable, "
          You are a delusional twat.

          ", at a timeframe ahead of when any other president would have acted"
          history says other wise, twat.

        • in no way absolves Trump of how badly he has handled this.

          The alternative are the Democrats who were telling people to go out and party at the end of February, after Trump had shut down air travel from China...

          Trump has not been perfect of course, but the U.S. locked down about as fast as was imaginable, at a timeframe ahead of when any other president would have acted. That was what really mattered was the sudden stop of large events, and telling people to stay at home as much as possible. That mattered way more than testing, at the time. No country yet has comprehensive testing, with even the best countries having tested well under 5% of the population.

          Please provide citations or it didn't happen.

    • by geekoid ( 135745 )

      Because they are talking about past numbers, hence past tense.
      English mother fucker, do you speak it.

  • this is my shocked face: :-O
    • this is my shocked face: :-O

      I think it should have been posted from the blindingly-obvious department.

    • Re:I am shocked (Score:4, Informative)

      by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @12:30PM (#59897664) Journal
      Don't forget, it wasn't until January 20th [nytimes.com] when China - and then the WHO - confirmed that the Wuhan virus could be spread from person to person. President Trump shut down travel from China just a few days later. This infection - potentially starting as early as October 2019 [sciencemag.org] - was denied to be an issue and to be human-to-human communicable until late January. Nearly 4 MONTHS after the potential start of the pandemic.
      • by geekoid ( 135745 )

        "Trump shut down travel from China just a few days later."
        LOL. no. He:

        "temporarily barred entry by foreign nationals who had traveled in China within the previous 14 days, with exceptions for the immediate family of U.S. citizens and permanent residents"

        https://apnews.com/0dc271ad7f7... [apnews.com]

        So no, he didn't "shut down" travel.
        And this was after airline started slowing travel.

  • so three random officials leak a bold claim they aren't ready to back up?

    "US intelligence community". is that some extension of slashdot? yawn ...

  • This is news? (Score:3, Informative)

    by kenai_alpenglow ( 2709587 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:27AM (#59897288)
    China's communist government (and pretty much all authoritarian regimes) regularly conceals news hostile to the regime.
  • Ok, but.... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by djbckr ( 673156 )
    This may be true that China concealed (and continues to conceal) the extent of the outbreak. But, I do not believe ANYTHING that comes from the current White House administration. It was only until the last couple of days that Trump actually acknowledged that anything was amiss. If he has done that, then things are FAR worse than they say.
    • This may be true that China concealed (and continues to conceal) the extent of the outbreak. But, I do not believe ANYTHING that comes from the current White House administration. It was only until the last couple of days that Trump actually acknowledged that anything was amiss. If he has done that, then things are FAR worse than they say.

      But this report is by US intelligence agencies and not from the White House. We'll see if Trump believes his own intelligence agencies this time.

    • I guess that's why President Trump shut down air travel in late January, and locked down more travel over the following weeks. I guess it's why the Federal Government was sending masks and ventilators to the States throughout February. I guess it's why he talked about dealing with this pandemic back in early Feb during his SOTU speech (the one that Nancy Pelosi tore up). Yeah, he's ignored everything and said everything is perfectly fine A-OK, go on with your lives and ignore social distancing (oh wait -
      • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

        I guess that's why President Trump shut down air travel in late January

        He did? Pretty sure you can still get on a plane right now.

  • This was obvious to anyone with a functioning brain. Even if the fact that the numbers unnaturally paused at 80k and hardly moved afterward for a month and a half wasn't enough of a clue, random journalists counting cremation urns and unnaturally high phone deactivations have provided some circumstantial evidence. Our "intelligence" community should have figured this out weeks ago, we have to have hundreds of spies over there.

    • by geekoid ( 135745 )

      yes, but lets not forget that China can lock everything down. Literal stop trucks, test the driver, and if positive take them to a hospital while leaving the truck by the side of the road.
      So one would expect a dramatic drop off once that is in full force.

      Try doing that in the US.

      Again, yes China is lying, but it's not as cut and dry as 'everything they say is the opposite of whats happening.'

    • It's probably been known for a few months, it's just now leaking out...
    • Our "intelligence" community should have figured this out weeks ago, we have to have hundreds of spies over there.

      You mean had.
      R.I.P

  • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:37AM (#59897340)
    It's bad enough their internal corruption allowed the virus to spread far and wide beyond their borders by hiding it from its own people and the world, they then interfered with our ability to respond and manage the outbreak by falsifying critical data, which put other nations about a month behind in forming their own epidemiological models. This type of behavior cannot go unpunished. If China is saying they don't give two shits about the world then the world should return in kind and not give two shits about China. They should be diplomatically and economically isolated from the rest of the world.
  • by Dan East ( 318230 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:39AM (#59897360) Journal

    There are multiple pieces of evidence for this.

    • The math doesn't add up. Given the known R0 infectious rate, and the fact that this was an unknown and new disease to start with, the models predict vastly more infections over the time period it had to spread in China, particularly before the lockdown. As late as January 14, China was still claiming that COVID-19 could not transfer from person to person.
    • The tests China used were drastically substandard. Spain shipped thousands of tests back to China that they purchased because the sensitivity was less than 30%. The general standard (which the FDA also requires) is at least 80% sensitivity. Thus there were many, many false negatives from testing in China.
    • China has admitted they did not include people that tested positive, but were asymptomatic at that time, in their counts. Thus they did not even count large numbers of positive tests, which was an incomplete count of the true positives in the first place because of the item above.
    • Videos out of China showed thousands of people lined up to enter a hospital mid-March. This was when China said cases were decreasing and everyone was on lockdown. The only way they would have allowed / forced thousands of people into a tightly packed line 3-4 people wide was if they tested positive, or had symptoms that indicated they were positive. There is no other purpose to risk grouping people so closely at that time unless they were already infected.
    • In March a single funeral home received two shipments in two days totaling 10,000 urns for cremated remains.
    • An adviser to the British Prime Minister reported that China likely has 40 times more cases and deaths than they have reported.

    So yeah, no surprise whatsoever that China is lying about its numbers.

  • by elvesrus ( 71218 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:50AM (#59897422)

    About 2 months ago Tencent shortly published some numbers which were roughly 10x what the government was reporting

    https://www.medicinenet.com/sc... [medicinenet.com]

  • Wouldn't it be nice to get direct info from China, like from a long-time insider (officially) working with the Chinese CDC? A person, who has personal connections with many health officials and would be able to signal if China is not behaving well.

    Whoops. Trump fired this person in July 2019: https://www.reuters.com/articl... [reuters.com]
    • by p0p0 ( 1841106 )
      TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP. This has nothing to do with him and you still bring him into it. China has been and will make things up and somehow that is Trump's fault? This virus was at crisis levels in January but China told the WHO to back off and lie for them, but that is still Trump's fault isn't it? Ridiculous.
      • by geekoid ( 135745 )

        It is Trumps fault.
        The US know's CCP lies, and that why we had people there to verify and get us actual info.
        Trump got rid of him.
        SO in what way is that not Trumps fault?

        All you snowflakes cucks do the same thing: You change what was said and then scream about it.

        No one said China lying is Trumps fault, they said he got rid of the person who allowed the US to see through those lies.
        "n January but China told the WHO to back off and lie for them,"
        I see right wing propganda is doing its job.
        Because none of th

    • From your own link:

      The CDC’s China headcount has shrunk to around 14 staffers, down from approximately 47 people since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017

      The biggest cuts were to positions filled by Chinese employees on the U.S. payroll, down to around 10 from 40 over the same period

      The CDC told Reuters the three Americans currently on staff in China are a country director, an influenza expert and an information technology expert. A temporary deputy director arrived recently, and that job will be filled permanently, the agency said in a statement.

      So it wasn't "a person", there were dozens there, there are still 14 people there, and most of those let go were Chinese nationals supporting the office. There is stil an influenza expert on staff in China. But don't let the facts from your own reference get in the way of a good ol' Trump bashing!

  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @11:59AM (#59897478)

    But it seems nobody bothered to send the memo to Italy and Spain...

  • So is the US (Score:3, Informative)

    by geekoid ( 135745 ) <dadinportland@y[ ]o.com ['aho' in gap]> on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @12:22PM (#59897604) Homepage Journal

    Hospitals are threatening to fire anyone who talks about it, and pushing out new NDAs.
    Media outlets are getting pressure from the government.

  • Consider, if you will, if COVID-19 has a 1% death rate (it's actually higher than that).

    China has a population of 1.4 billion. So if everyone in China got infected, that would mean 14 million people would be dead.

    The US has a population of 300 million. If everyone in the US got infected, that would mean 3 million people would be dead.

    And now the US is allegedly the #1 in the world for COVID-19 infections?

    Of course China is hiding their real numbers. Especially being the origin and epicenter of t
    • by DavenH ( 1065780 )
      This shouldn't need to be stated, but the world is non-linear. You can't just pick some measure of a quantity and do a linear projection on it and apply it everywhere.
  • Bottom line China got their outbreak under control while here in the US with full benefit of hindsight there is no end in sight. Over a dozen temporary hospitals in Wuhan have been decommissioned and tens of thousands of imported medical workers have gone back home. Whatever the extent of conspiracy to cook the numbers in the end China got its shit together and there is no denying that. The U.S not so much.

After all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done.

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