How the Pandemic Will End? (theatlantic.com) 179
Ed Yong, writing for The Atlantic: The world is experienced at making flu vaccines and does so every year. But there are no existing vaccines for coronaviruses -- until now, these viruses seemed to cause diseases that were mild or rare -- so researchers must start from scratch. The first steps have been impressively quick. Last Monday, a possible vaccine created by Moderna and the National Institutes of Health went into early clinical testing. That marks a 63-day gap between scientists sequencing the virus's genes for the first time and doctors injecting a vaccine candidate into a person's arm. "It's overwhelmingly the world record," Fauci said. But it's also the fastest step among many subsequent slow ones. The initial trial will simply tell researchers if the vaccine seems safe, and if it can actually mobilize the immune system. Researchers will then need to check that it actually prevents infection from SARS-CoV-2. They'll need to do animal tests and large-scale trials to ensure that the vaccine doesn't cause severe side effects. They'll need to work out what dose is required, how many shots people need, if the vaccine works in elderly people, and if it requires other chemicals to boost its effectiveness.
"Even if it works, they don't have an easy way to manufacture it at a massive scale," said Seth Berkley of Gavi. That's because Moderna is using a new approach to vaccination. Existing vaccines work by providing the body with inactivated or fragmented viruses, allowing the immune system to prep its defenses ahead of time. By contrast, Moderna's vaccine comprises a sliver of SARS-CoV-2's genetic material -- its RNA. The idea is that the body can use this sliver to build its own viral fragments, which would then form the basis of the immune system's preparations. This approach works in animals, but is unproven in humans. By contrast, French scientists are trying to modify the existing measles vaccine using fragments of the new coronavirus. "The advantage of that is that if we needed hundreds of doses tomorrow, a lot of plants in the world know how to do it," Berkley said. No matter which strategy is faster, Berkley and others estimate that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a proven vaccine, and then longer still to make it, ship it, and inject it into people's arms.
"Even if it works, they don't have an easy way to manufacture it at a massive scale," said Seth Berkley of Gavi. That's because Moderna is using a new approach to vaccination. Existing vaccines work by providing the body with inactivated or fragmented viruses, allowing the immune system to prep its defenses ahead of time. By contrast, Moderna's vaccine comprises a sliver of SARS-CoV-2's genetic material -- its RNA. The idea is that the body can use this sliver to build its own viral fragments, which would then form the basis of the immune system's preparations. This approach works in animals, but is unproven in humans. By contrast, French scientists are trying to modify the existing measles vaccine using fragments of the new coronavirus. "The advantage of that is that if we needed hundreds of doses tomorrow, a lot of plants in the world know how to do it," Berkley said. No matter which strategy is faster, Berkley and others estimate that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a proven vaccine, and then longer still to make it, ship it, and inject it into people's arms.
Say what again? (Score:5, Insightful)
"until now, these viruses seemed to cause diseases that were mild or rare"
Uh... the people who've died from SARS and MERS would like a word with you, Mr. Yong.
Tbree serious pandemics in the past two decades doesn't really qualify as "rare".
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Uh... "Tbree" is the Vulcan word for "three".
Xi: "Guilty until proven innocent!" (My wife, too) (Score:3)
Good example of FP haste, if not abuse. Can't even count, and a typo for the incorrect count, too. Or did you [93 Escort Wagon] mean to include a third example on your list? Ebola could be a candidate, but it doesn't seem to fit the context. (I just borrowed a book about Ebola...)
As for The Atlantic article itself, it is NOT too long, but it was too much for me to digest properly in a single sitting. I first focused on the beginning and the ending, scanned the rest, and then went through and focused on all
It's amateur hour (Score:2, Insightful)
The Federal government's planning should have included the scenario where China covers up an outbreak. Seems kind of obvious since they've done it before.
Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.
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The Communist idea was to stop the experts from talking about the start of wuflu.
That cost the world weeks.
after that "the world" squandered two entire months waving hands and is now drowning in shit.
we really don't need any sophisticated enemy to screw ourselves up, but feel free to make up excuses and blame others.
and it's called "coronavirus" or "covid-19", but feel free to continue using your bigot language.
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I do NOT think he should "feel free" to continue spouting his race-baiting and bigotry, but rather that's one of the negative effects of Internet-based anonymity. Now exacerbated by social distancing. I quite doubt that most of these trolls have the guts to say any of those things in public, and especially not face-to-face with the actual human beings they are attacking, but while drunk on the couch in their mothers' basements, they suddenly "think" they are real brave, for exceedingly small values of brave
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Can the coronavirus mutate into a more dangerous form? The last question is the most terrifying since it might land on top of healthcare systems that are already in a state of collapse...
Of course it can. But that usually happens when several strands come together. Consider them as lego. One is made from green lego blocks, one from yellow. If you have both strands, random mixed yellow and green results can come out.
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I recommend The Gene by Siddhartha Mukherjee if you want to review the basics of the topic.
Of course mutations are always possible, but most of them don't "work". To be more precise, I could have specified that we don't know if this coronavirus is "genetically delicate" in the sense that most mutations will fail, or "genetically robust" and the coronavirus is likely to incorporate mutations successfully.
This part is more speculative, but my current understanding is that this is a quite simple disease. It
Re:Xi: "Guilty until proven innocent!" (My wife, t (Score:4, Interesting)
The problem was three decades of unfunded tax cuts destroying the ability of public health services to react to epidemic. Sheer unadulterated greed and psychopathy lead directly to this the active elimination of the governments ability to react to an epidemic with the public health care system. Those cuts in taxes totally hundreds of millions are now costing billions even trillions the normal result of the psychopathic greed at the top, say it all with me folks, privatise the profits and socialise the losses but only of the richest, fuck the poor and fuck them hard and the middle class as well.
How will it end, FEAR will turn to ANGER, it always does and they will direct that fear at the government and at the rich. The attacks on the celebrity class attention seeking is a clear sign of what is to come.
The current virus has a much higher death rate (Score:3)
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Re: Say what again? (Score:2)
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The areas where they were limited to were limited because of a rapid response, but if they hadn't been addressed they *might* have been considerably worse. They had the potential to become pandemic, and had a higher fatality rate than COVID-19. But they were easy to detect as soon as they became infectious. That's where COVID-19 differs.
Still, it's worth remembering that COVID-19 is a close relative of SARS, so it could easily become more lethal.
But you're technically correct. They weren't pandemic. W
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No. What they required is isolation and confinement. But they were relatively easy to detect, so that was feasible.
It will never end (Score:5, Insightful)
It will never end, or at least its impacts will never end.
Was there ever a post-9/11 world? People today just laugh and assume the NSA is listening. There are still prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.
Two years from now, will it be possible to go anywhere without an official government tracking app? Without a full suite of vaccines? Will the independent merchant - the last voting bastion of fiscal conservatism - still exist? Will churches be allowed to use their full capacity?
Re:It will never end (Score:5, Insightful)
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Exactly. Think about it this way - what was the average number of deaths d
Agency (Score:4, Insightful)
What makes people more scared is the lack of agency. They are willing to take on much more risk if they are the one in control (like driving a car) than someone else (like flying on a plane flown by someone else).
9/11 was something that happened to people in a office who had no agency. Car crashes happen to people driving and everyone thinks it wont happen to them because they are a better driver. (Everyone including the guy who crashes is car thinks till that moment it wont happen to him)
A virus is something which takes away your agency so its scary. Just think instructors in parachute schools who do hundreds of jumps a year are social distancing over a virus which kills 0.1% of health adults.
Re: It will never end (Score:2)
https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/
And 102 per day in the USA
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
first two links of a simple search. I do declare you a fool.
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And I'm pretty sure more people have died from car accidents since the new year than COVID-19. ... facepalm.
Yes, and the car accidents infected the people around to make more accidents
Oh, corvir19 is officially in USA ... since? 15th of Februar? Already 1000 dead. In a week it will be 5000, and that is far above your car analogy, idiot.
Re:It will never end (Score:4, Insightful)
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"Most people still don't get themselves vaccinated against the flu and diseases caused by preventable causes such as smoking and obesity far surpass the number of deaths this disease can cause. "
This disease kills the smokers and the fat people with high blood pressure.
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Smokers or obese people do not fill up hospital beds.
They don't infect people who are not smoking or are not obese.
You are an idiot.
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Will tinfoil be outlawed?
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Oh no! But aluminum doesn't offer the same grade of protection! We'll have to wear hat and hood both.
Or lead if you have the back strength.
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Time destroys everything. Including the last copy of Windows 95, or SARS-CoV-2.
Humankind so far eradicated only 2 diseases: smallpox, and rinderpest. Given the present # of cases, I don't see COVID-19 going anywhere soon. More likely it'll be like a bushfire: spreading from one area to the next, some areas spared entirely, a flame up here & there, smoldering below the surface, but still burning somewhere at any given time like a coal seam fire. Much surface area burnt, and a long time before the fir
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Good comment and deserves the "Insightful" moderation. I wish I could nudge up your reputation in a more enduring way. (If MEPR is the solution, then what is the problem?)
I would add that it is quite likely we will wind up with frequent mass arrests on the presumption of being guilty of carrying various viruses until proven innocent.
And don't forget that this was just a bio-accident. Wait until someone releases an actual bio-weapon. (That's the monstrosity that I've been publicly warning about for a few yea
Lets hope it works (Score:2)
Accelerated testing? (Score:2)
possible vaccine created by Moderna and the National Institutes of Health went into early clinical testing.
I hope they are not going through usual drawn-out medical safety testing process, have asked for volunteers and intentionally infecting consenting volunteers to determine effectiveness of this vaccine.
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I think the current process is that you tweet that you're doing it, and the FDA holds a press conference to approve whatever you did.
I'm Ron Burgundy? (Score:4)
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I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one confused by that title.
One way or the other, it ends with herd immunity. (Score:5, Insightful)
Either because (a) we lose control and eventually the majority of the people in the world have had it or (b) we manage to flatten the curve for long enough that most people have had it but not too many at any given time -- or we develop treatments and/or vaccines.
Either way is economically costly, but I think trying to "take it on the chin" is likely to be devastating. But we can't really afford indefinite social distancing either. We should be doing everything we can to push up that line under which the curve should be "flattened": our capacity to handle simultaneous cases.
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With three pandemics in the past two decades, I wouldn't be surprised if eventually this gets rolled into the existing flu mass vaccination program - they'll investigate which new coronavirus strains are most likely to spread each year, make the vaccines and distribute them. Might even just be one shot which includes both influenza and coronavirus.
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With three pandemics in the past two decades...
You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.
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Sure there are things we needed to start doing years ago, and things that we stopped doing that we should have continued. But you can't change the past. There's still things that need to be done *right now* that aren't being done.
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I can think of two critical resources coming up as well: respiratory therapists and speech therapists. Respiratory therapists are needed to operate ventilators, and speech therapists are important in post ventilator rehab -- speech therapists do more than speech, they also do swallowing. You can't conjure people to do those jobs out of thin air.
Hospitals are giving people crash courses to nurses to run ventilators, and while that's far from ideal (there's a shortage of nurses already), it also optimistica
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No, the path to herd immunity is littered with 100 million dead. Even with non-over-stressed medical care the morbidity is between 0.1 and 1%. The correct plan, now that we missed early containment, is:
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You can't fight what you can't see, so yeah. Testing. But there's myriad other things we should be doing at the same time. This is like WW2 in that it's a total war, something nobody has seen in this country since then.
Better yet: How many years before coronadenialists (Score:4, Interesting)
A more interesting question is: How many years, decades, before a significant movement denying that the pandemic even happened starts developping ?
Most people today were born after WWII, and there's an increasing number of holocaust deniers. After fifthy years, there is no shortage of moon landing hoaxers. Today, there's a significant percentage of the world population that was born after 9-11 and we not only see 9-11 conspiracy theorists, but downright 9-11 deniers, people that actually claim that 9-11 never happened, and that the twin towers never even existed, that it's all CGI, etc.
So how long till people start denying that the coronavirus pandemic even happened ?
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Most people today were born after WWII, and there's an increasing number of holocaust deniers. After fifthy years, there is no shortage of moon landing hoaxers.
I don't think either of these groups are necessarily increasing in number - it's just that the internet gives them voice (like it does with most everything, both good and bad). Plus I would argue the current political climate in many countries (not just the US, but certainly incuding the US) has emboldened them to rant and rave.
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A month ago most of the armchair geniuses here were saying this was all overblown and not a big deal.
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Pretty nice to invent strawmen, at least in the quantity you seem to think exist, and then ride your high horse all over them.
Very smug and well done!
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A more interesting question is: How many years, decades, before a significant movement denying that the pandemic even happened starts developping ?
Depends on how long the lockdown goes on. Eventually I can imagine some grandpa trying to explain his past vacation to a young person who has read a blog denying that Europe exists, or that there were once planes and ships to get there on.
It ends with the Zombie Apocalypse (Score:3)
All Pandemics end with the Zombie Apocalypse
https://youtu.be/KkV42m5wVTk [youtu.be]
Comment removed (Score:3)
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Yep, we've wiped out 2 viruses already, we're on a roll.
When a vaccine is available. (Score:3)
When a vaccine is widely available in (hopefully) 12-18 months, most countries with reasonable healthcare systems will make it available to their citizens. Even in countries like the US, insurance companies generally find it cheaper to offer free or cheap vaccinations than to pay for ER care for a few percent of their customers. Sure, you'll have a few holdouts who can't or won't take a vaccine, but most people will. After that, the coronavirus vaccine will (probably) just be part of the annual flu shot.
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That's a possibly correct, but somewhat optimistic, scenario. Vaccines are guaranteed possible, and it's not certain that a coronavirus vaccine can be durable. But it's possible.
What's nearly certain is that earlier than the vaccine there will be antiviral drugs that can be taken when the disease shows up. They may well have sufficient side effects that medical observation is quite desirable, but they may already be approved (for some other disease) if we can once identify them. (Some of the plausible d
correction Re:When a vaccine is available. (Score:2)
Vaccines are not guaranteed possible
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In which case, it ends like Spanish Flu in 1918. Either way, it's going to be a little while.
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That is to say, it ends when enough of the population has had the virus that widespread immunity prevents it from effectively spreading. And it could possibly flare up again in the future.
We probably won't have as many dead as they did back then because, as you said, we have more treatment options. (Anti-virals and such.)
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Yes, they are. At least against viruses.
Just a reminder (Score:3)
Meanwhile decades of constant funding cuts mean a lot less Basic Research gets done. Those tax cuts have to come from somewhere, and the government doesn't waste all that much money outside of the military.
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Many other countries have done a much better job of keeping a lid on it than we have. In fact, due to the lack of testing, the numbers of infected people in this country are likely vastly higher t
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there are 6.5 million people over the age of 111
But they all live in Greece, so why do you bother?
Plague Inc. (Score:2)
Step by step (Score:4, Funny)
1. World economy goes into the dumps
2. Mass riots and wars start
3. War increases until we have WW3
4. Everybody nukes each other
5. Workers abandon all nuke power plants, spreading yet more radiation
6. All humans dies off
7. Dogs survive and become the next technological species
8. Ruff ruff, bow wow, yelp sniff* ruff. (Don't worry, future dogs will know what this means.)
* Biden will be their iconic hero
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No, no, no ...
It goes like this:
1. Virus kills nearly all humans. ...
2. Wars take care of the rest.
3. Centuries pass, and forests take over cities.
4. A probe sent from another interstellar civilization reaches earth.
5. The probe sends images and telemetry about skyscrapers.
6. Those who sent the probe are puzzled how these structures were built.
7. They conclude that dolphins did.
8. Thanks for all the fish
Classic answer... (Score:2)
Humans are plants? (Score:3)
"This approach works in animals, but is unproven in humans."
If we aren't animals, what are we?
Funny how things change (Score:2)
Swine flu 2009... (Score:2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Incidentally, the estimated death toll was between 18,000 (WHO) and 284,000 (CDC), which is broad to say the least and makes you wonder about the error margins in this data. I would guess that the global number of infected people from Coronavirus is 100x higher than the number of positive tests, making the fatality rat
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Okay Dr. Rush [wikipedia.org], you're welcome to sit in the chair [fandom.com] first. No? Thought so.
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Hollywood already predicted there would be five waves. [wikipedia.org]
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An inactivated vaccine should not cause any problems.
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Note the key phrase "should not". It's NOT the same as "will not"....
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Why would it? It is just dead virus particles. They aren't poisonous, they can't reproduce. The only thing that can be problematic is an allergy to the growth medium, but that is the same for a flu shot.
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How coronavirus mutations can track its spread - and disprove conspiracies
You haven't met many conspiracy nuts, have you? If the facts contradict their fiction it's a forgery. False flag operation. Fake news. A story planted for the mainstream media. Besides, what if the current situation was the plan all along? Find/create a virus that isn't obviously bio-engineered but sufficiently subtle and dangerous enough to cause a pandemic. Stage a limited outbreak in your own population. You lose a few thousand people out of over a billion, shut down a province but in return you get a fu
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Pew! Pew! Pew! Haha, you have cooties!
What a lame excuse. Fucking batfuckers.
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They already had the vaccine
[Emphasis added above] You are ignoring the work to test on animals and humans to check if it is safe and effective. They have a candidate now, months after the first cases, and years after similar viruses appeared.
That's the only reasonable explanation
Another possibility: you are overestimating your expertise in this area.
when many experts were saying we were years away from a vaccine.
Back on March 3rd, Dr Fauci said 12-18 months [umn.edu] for widespread deployment. Let's see what the fine summary says:
Berkley and others estimate that it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a proven vaccine, and then longer still to make it, ship it, and inject it into people's arms.
Re:Very Convenient (Score:5, Insightful)
COVID19's kill rate is too low for it to be plausibly man made.
It's spread rate among human beings, however, is damn impressive... although still well with thresholds that are attributable to ordinary virus mutation.
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If I were an evil genius designing a bioweapon (or playing Plague Inc), I wouldn't make the fatality rate too high. A high fatality rate hurts the spread of a pathogen, and is not a beneficial trait in its evolution. Evolution promotes spread, and killing the hosts lowers that. A high-enough fatality rate will still do damage, like we are seeing with the economic damage from this pandemic.
Besides, it could be a man-made (or rather, assisted evolution of an existing virus), but created for research purposes.
Unlikely to be engineered (Score:2)
Yes, that's one study, but I have not seen any reports of a counterargument from the scientific community.
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What makes you think killing is the main priority of a bio weapon? Just as with many chemical weapons it can disable opposition directly (too sick to fight) and indirectly (collapsing society) better by being serious enough to be able to kill but not serious enough that medical care doesn't help. There are (were?) bioweapons designed to kill effectively however those have a different use being the equivalent of a nuclear weapon.
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Well said.
If someone was funding a deadly virus, then they should fire the mad scientist(s) and get their money back. They could have started with at lease the MERS coronavirus to get a mortality rate of 35%, not the paltry 1-3% of the current virus.
And who can be the funding/developing party?
Is
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Hey now, Chinese modbots working to improve Winnie the Pooh's image. That's not how we do things here.
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How is COVID-19 worse if the same percentage of people who die is equal or less than influenza, which is what my entire post was about.
Because influenza spreads more slowly. So the same number of cases use up less medical resources.
I'm curious, have you had an unexplained headache for years and years?
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And still the 0.1% mortality rate is the same - inclusive of medical care or lack thereof for COVID due to those resources being overwhelmed - so you just described a distinction without a difference.
I'm curious, have you had an unexplained headache for years and years?
Perhaps make an actual use point before taking your victory lap.
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Because influenza spreads more slowly. So the same number of cases use up less medical resources.
And still the 0.1% mortality rate is the same - inclusive of medical care or lack thereof for COVID due to those resources being overwhelmed - so you just described a distinction without a difference.
From where in your imagination do you get this 0.1%?
In places with good health care that is not overwhelmed with cases it looks to be between 1% and 2%. If the health care system becomes overwhelmed 5% is looking optimistic.
Oh right, you think millions already have/had it and didn't notice. There is no scientific evidence for that at all, but when you find some feel free to post it.
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Have you looked at the numbers from Italy? Now consider that those are just the deaths in hospital and many deaths are at home there and unreported in the official numbers.
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Flue dead: about 0.1%.
Corvir19 dead: 5% - 30% depending on country.
You have mental problems?
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I don't get your point. My friends made their statement based on almost no information - they described their thought process behind their prediction (at the time) and it essentially boiled down to them not comprehending how a virus in the same family as the common cold could be more deadly that colds or flu. In other words laughable and
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So...no it is not clear what any of the percentages will be. All the numbers are based on (very) incomplete information due to lack of testing. You want the correct numbers? Test a large representative portion of the the population.
Speaking only for where I live, we have tested ~6000 people and have ~30 confirmed cases. Of course, we only test people who have symptoms, so obviously the vast majority of them have a regular cold or flu and not SARS2.
So you are implying that if only we tested more completely asymptomatic people we would find way more cases?
I think you should not quit your day job. Now more than ever.
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We have filtered air in this country.
Re:Go outside. (Score:5, Interesting)
You have a much better chance of catching some virus in close quarters, lets say in an apartment building, where there is too much sharing of air and surfaces between neighbours than you can ever have on the outside.
Exactly, and that is why, as an apartment dweller, I haven't gone outside in a week. Because in order to get outside, I have to pass through these shared spaces, and then through a doorway through which scores of people pass daily and involves devices which one needs to touch in order to exit and enter. As I don't have a real need to go outside, it's safer to stay put.
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So the nodern innovations such as soap, water, sanitizer, wipes, gloves haven't caught on with you yet, I take it?
3 of those 5 are not available and while I now carry soap, there's a shortage of water suitable for washing in the hallways and such and after washing, there's often a tap that needs turned off and sometimes a door knob too.
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We live in a small Arizona mountain town, and I have relatives in LA. We are a summer tourist magnet, but wit all the restaurants are closed and events canceled, it's locals only this year. People here get out on the street to walk dogs and stroll babies, and out onto our numerous hiking trails. Most of us observe the six-foot separation that the PSAs keep recommending.
Meanwhile in LA, people kept going out in the streets and parks in groups, until city government closed all parks and hiking trails because
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It's unlikely this virus will be enough to realign the superpowers.