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Medicine

India Could be Next Virus Hotspot With an 'Avalanche' of Cases (bloomberg.com) 115

Posted by msmash from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.
India could become the next global hotspot for virus cases, with experts warning containment measures that proved successful elsewhere in Asia may not work in the world's second-most populous country. From a report: The South Asian nation, which has so far reported 137 infections and three deaths, is trying to contain the virus by closing its borders, testing incoming travelers and contact tracing from those who tested positive. On Tuesday, the Indian Council of Medical Research announced it was ramping up the country's testing capacity to 8,000 samples a day from the current 500. Its director general Balram Bhargava maintained there was "no evidence" of the transmission of the virus in the community. But some experts in the nation of 1.3 billion people say that won't be enough to contain the spread. Other measures like widespread testing and social distancing may be infeasible in cities with a high population density and rickety health infrastructure.

While growth in total numbers has been slow until now, "the number will be 10 times higher" by April 15, said Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of the Indian Council for Medical Research's Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, a government-funded institution. "They are not understanding that this is an avalanche," said John, who was also chairman of the Indian Government Expert Advisory Group on Polio Eradication and chief of the National HIV/AIDS Reference Centre at the Christian Medical College in Vellore. "As every week passes, the avalanche is growing bigger and bigger." So far India has been relatively unscathed by the virus compared with other countries in Asia.
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India Could be Next Virus Hotspot With an 'Avalanche' of Cases More

India Could be Next Virus Hotspot With an 'Avalanche' of Cases

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  • Chinese Coronavirus (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:09PM (#59841678)

    Chinese culture accelerated the propagation of the coronavirus from China to the rest of the world. An analysis [nytimes.com] published by the New York Times explains how the Chinese tendency to hide the truth allowed the coronavirus to spread quickly.

    Get more info [blogspot.com] about Chinese culture.

    • We had a month head start to China and couple weeks to Italy. What did we do to stop it?
    • by anonymous coward ... i'm afraid that's not how it works , here ...

    • To be fair, this virus did kind of follow the plot of World War Z (the book), where the illness started in China and the Chinese authorities hid the truth from the world and/or didn't take that virus seriously enough until it was too late.

  • The spread of the virus is still fairly slow in India, and the virus is much less concerning if you have a treatment for it... which India appears to have found [metrosaga.com].

    That is just one example, also a drug to treat malaria has been found to workers treatment also. So even if the spread picks up in India, they may be able to avoid dire repercussions if they can read the worst infected, quickly.

    If treatments appear to be pretty solid, it could mean a much quicker end to lockdowns across the board, and give more run

    • Re:On the other hand, India has treatment (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Luthair ( 847766 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:24PM (#59841734)
      If they actually had a treatment don't you think you'd be able to source an article at a legitimate publication?

      • you'd be able to source an article at a legitimate publication?

        Hey man, talk to the Google. I just give you what it spat up, which are many varying sources - guess what, this is the modern era where you pick a source YOU can trust more! You being an expert on the most accurate source of news from India and all.

      • They're using antivirals like everyone else. Particularly, ones typically reserved for HIV. I don't think anything about that is unique to India, nor does it have a dramatic effect. However, I think the combination has proved a little more helpful than something like Tamiflu is for flu.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
        I'm guessing the "cure" is that article about people drinking cow piss a few days ago...

    • Re:On the other hand, India has treatment (Score:4, Insightful)

      by LostMyAccount ( 5587552 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @03:26PM (#59841744)

      I'd like to see this treatment detailed by better journalism and backed by more sources. I don't think India "curing" 10 people while the rest of the world doesn't seem to be able to makes any sense.

      I also don't understand why it seems to spread slowly in India, given the high population density, poverty and poor hygiene in much of India. I'm guessing a lack of testing is a better reason.

      • I don't think India "curing" 10 people while the rest of the world doesn't seem to be able to makes any sense.

        Australia is also reporting having cured two people [dailymail.co.uk] using an anti-malarial drug, it's not that surprising to find that medications used for other purposes might be able to attack this virus as well, or stop it from replicating.

        It just takes a while to think of what might make sense, then get permission to try...

        I also don't understand why it seems to spread slowly in IndiaM

        The virus appears to repli [medium.com]

        • Australia is also reporting having cured two people [dailymail.co.uk] using an anti-malarial drug
          That is extremely unlikely. Malaria is a super small multi cell organism. How a drug against malaria should help against a virus ... sorry, not likely.

        • The virus appears to replicate more readily [medium.com] in a narrow temperature band.
          Body temperature is not really related to outside temperature ...

        • Australia is also reporting having cured two people [dailymail.co.uk] using an anti-malarial drug

          Oh good. The daily mail quoted as a relevant source. Sorry for being so late posting this, I actually facepalmed so hard I knocked myself unconscious.

        • 1. Virus can only "replicate" in the host. The temperature within the human body doesn't vary that much : the virus (or its effects) raises the body temperature to 38 degree Celsius, or so.

          Outside the host, temperature only affects the duration for which it is infectious : in air as aerosol, in bodily fluid droplets on various surfaces etc.

          2. Saudi Arabia was largely warmer than India during the period, and it got affected worse than India.

      • I remember a cartoon by the famous Indian cartoonist RKLakshman: A scientist peering into the microscope shouts, "It has happened! The malaria virus got infected by Hep C!"

        It is possible there are other microbes there that inhibits crowds this one out, people are used to and have developed some sort of immunity due to their previous exposures to dengue, malaria, chik-un-gunia and various other pathogens.

        Cow dung is so pervasive in the villages, almost every square inch of every surface is teeming with

    • People seem to be fighting about the name, maybe we should be calling it the Logans Run virus since those are mostly the people in peril from it...

      Err...in Logan's run, you hit last day on your 21st birthday.

      It is still hitting people that young...it is the REALLY young like 10 and younger that really show almost no tendency to suffering from the disease.

      It does ramp up with age, but it *is* hitting people in their 20's too.

      • I thought it was 30.

        • I thought it was 30.

          I'm referring to the Logan' Run books.....

          MUCH better than the movie.

          • Re: (Score:1)

            by rndmtim ( 664101 )

            Yeah, the books had the kids divided up with the color of their palm flowers - 0-6 yellow, 7-13 blue, 14-20 red, flashing red, then... black on the 21st birthday.

            • Yeah, the books had the kids divided up with the color of their palm flowers - 0-6 yellow, 7-13 blue, 14-20 red, flashing red, then... black on the 21st birthday.

              Yep...

              You know...I've not read it in a LONG time, and it seems I will have extra time on my hands staying mostly at home...I might give it another read.

              It's actually a pretty short novel.

    • Your linked article does not mention anything about a/the treatment.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by kbahey ( 102895 )

      Yeah, doctors in India claim that they have a treatment for the Coronavirus exactly the same way researchers in India claimed that HIV and the novel Coronavirus share genetic material, fueling conspiracy theories [nikkei.com].

    • You muppet. The article says that they waited the prescribed 14 days after a positive test and tested twice in a 24 hour period, both negative. That's how everyone that has recovered has been "treated".

      Turns out the "treatment" is to let your immune system fight it, just like any other coronavirus strain. Thank Jeebus that was discovered!

  • They told me that was unwise, unnecessary, and racist. It will actually make things worse, they said.

    Are we saying it's good now? Or do we still have to pretend it's bad so we can score political points?

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by spun ( 1352 )

      Who said closing borders during a pandemic was unwise, unnecessary, and racist? The imaginary libruls who live in your head rent free?

      • Knock if off. You know damn well many actual libs claim closing borders are racist and xenophobic, just as calling this the Wuhan Virus or Chinese Corona virus is "racist" and "xenophobic".

        Have a sample of some of their hysteria.

        https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/... [vox.com]

        Scroll down about two pages:
        Quote: "Experts pointed out that full-scale travel bans haven’t been effective. Italy, the hardest-hit country in Europe, was the first European country to ban travel to and from China, where the outbreak originate

        • Re: (Score:3)

          by Cyberax ( 705495 )

          Knock if off. You know damn well many actual libs claim closing borders are racist and xenophobic

          Indeed it is. The research shows that banning flights from China delayed the spread of virus in the US by 3 to 5 _days_ (not weeks, DAYS). In other words, completely ineffective and stupid. See: https://science.sciencemag.org... [sciencemag.org]

          This makes European bans even more stupid. It's not like their politicians are much better than the US ones.

          • Re: (Score:3)

            by Kohath ( 38547 )

            Cool, now we have no one ever said it and of course they said it, they were right in the same thread.

            Who wants to double down on no one ever said it?

            Come on, you know you want to.

            Still waiting for that was different and it was monstrous "at the time", but it's a tiny bit later and now it's super wise. Not sure whether we will get it was the right thing to do at the time, but the way it was announced made it evil. Does someone want to try that last one?

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by spun ( 1352 )

          I'm confused. Where does that article use the words "unwise, unnecessary, and racist" in regards to closing borders?

        • No one should have to explain to you the difference between people coming into the US vs people coming into the US who are possible carriers of the corona virus.

          But no, calling it the Wuhan Virus or Corona virus isn't racist. That's just regressives trying to earn points with each other.

      • Who said closing borders during a pandemic was unwise, unnecessary, and racist? The imaginary libruls who live in your head rent free?

        Well, there are US congress critters, mostly on the Dem side, that are having to try to walk back those exact sentiments expressed when trump called for closing the borders to China, which turned out to be a good thing to do.

        It bought us a bit more time.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by Kohath ( 38547 )

        https://www.independent.co.uk/... [independent.co.uk]

        The European Union’s two presidents have criticised Donald Trump’s decision to impose a travel ban on European citizens, warning that coronavirus pandemic “requires cooperation” to defeat.

        In a joint statement Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel said the policy had been imposed by the US “without consultation” and suggested it could be counterproductive.

        You could at least try one Google search before you do the usual thing and preten

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by AHuxley ( 892839 )
      Nations accepted the WHO advice and changed word use.
      They totally held back the use of words like wuflu.
      The spread of wuflu, not so much.
    • No one should have to explain to you the difference between people coming into the US vs people coming into the US who are possible carriers of the corona virus. So you're trying to equate something that is unrelated.

    • They told me that was unwise, unnecessary, and racist. It will actually make things worse, they said.

      Are we saying it's good now? Or do we still have to pretend it's bad so we can score political points?

      You're being modded down (as a Troll, no less) for a common sense point: keeping sick, or even just potentially sick people coming across your borders reduces your nation's case load, further infections, and all around burden. And yes, it was just days ago that Joe Biden himself tweeted his argument against border controls vis a vis the pandemic [twitter.com]:

      "A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it."

      As if the very concept of qua

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Kohath ( 38547 )

        Worst of all, no one told me whether we're all still supposed to pretend it's bad. How do we know the revolutionary truth if the fathers of the revolution don't tell us? It can change every day. They're failing the people by not telling us the most profound and glorious truths of the proletarian revolution. Sad.

    • Closing borders once it's already in your country will only make things worse.

      The specific closures which Cheeto Mussolini has enacted have been all of those things you said. And add to the list "too late"

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Kohath ( 38547 )

        Closing borders once it's already in your country will only make things worse.

        Every leader of every country seems to disagree with you. Even Canada.

  • If India gets it itâ(TM)s going to be bad. Huge number of âoeforgottenâ people there...

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Every country it going to get it, no exceptions. But I agree, that India is going to be particularly bad.

  • social distancing (Score:2, Insightful)

    by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 )
    India... social distancing... um, ya. sure: https://www.zerohedge.com/site... [zerohedge.com]

  • Epidemics in india ? (Score:5, Informative)

    by dargaud ( 518470 ) <slashdot2@nOSpaM.gdargaud.net> on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @04:42PM (#59842036) Homepage
    I always wondered why there aren't more epidemics originating from India.
    I've been there, and I've seen: people shitting in the streets in the middle of crowds, dead bodies being burnt 15 minutes on 3 sticks of wood and then thrown into the river, market food vendors who wash dishes in the sewers, flea-ridden street kids barely 2 years old, emaciated cows eating garbage bags, overflowing sewers due to monsoon, and so much more...
    Nothing against the indians, but to me any of the above is a recipe for brewing epidemics and I seriously wonder why there aren't many more. Yeah, I know tuberculosis and some others are latent over there, but still.
    • Basically, India, like many other undeveloped nations that have high population densities, are in a constant pandemic. We in the west are not paying attention.
      Look at India's average age of 28 vs China with 37, America with 38, and European Union with 42. Europe will likely have a very high medical cost coming out of this. CHina just looks the other way (hence why so many dead were in the hallways) and simply lied about it.
      But India, with many fewer older folks, may not see a huge serious infection. All

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by robinsc ( 84714 )

      certain cultural practises may help. for example not shaking hands but using namaste, not using toilet paper which is a very bad way to clean a gooey mess ( try wiping nutella with toilet paper as opposed to washing with water) , Using the left hand for defecaion cleansing and the right for eating , touching face mouth etc.
      Natural immunity, cheap drugs and antibiotics, abundant healthcare ( more and cheaper doctors that most western countries in fact many western countries have an overabundance of india doc

  • 1. They can make many ventilators due to still having their own nations medical production lines.
    Other nations have to ask what a ventilator is and if anyone still has the skill to make a production line.
    2. They have an actual medical production line system that is for domestic use. The gov of India had the wisdom to protect and support its own medical experts.
    3. The gov of India will not have to accept what Communist China approves for export month to month.
    4. A police system and mil that is actua

    • A police system and mil that is actual ready to help its own HINDU citizens.

      There, fixed that for you/.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by AHuxley ( 892839 )
        The identification and deportation system is working well.
        Citizens will get the help they need.

  • Are you assuming India doesn't know what an 'avalanche' is?
    Goggle India Ski Resorts.
    They have the fucking Himalayas for fuck's sake.

  • possibly not (Score:3)

    by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:22PM (#59842364) Journal
    Between India's very low average age (28.1) and their need for Chloroquine for Malaria, it is possible that India will be spared.

  • India has even handled plague! (Score:3)

    by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Tuesday March 17, 2020 @06:23PM (#59842366) Journal
    Plague in India [wikipedia.org] happened in 1994, just 26 years ago, not centuries ago. And after two weeks it subsided.

    Not saying same thing will happen to covid19 but let us not jump to conclusions and spread panic. No time to be complacent and blase but no time to panic either...

  • Closing borders is a blunt general restriction to help limit movement and exposure of the virus. Unfortunately it is hard to prioritize essential. For instance, Medical related people should be able to travel in most cases. Caring for Family members. Also, Mechanics, Engineers and other specialists to keep society operating in slow down mode. But we transport is setup to prioritize Executives and Politicians. Ok time to rethink.

  • While growth in total numbers has been slow until now, "the number will be 10 times higher" by April 15, said Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of the Indian Council for Medical Research's Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, a government-funded institution.

    Assuming India gets a similar expansion in cases to that of Wuhan, it'll be 10 times higher [in terms of positive test results] in two weeks, not four. And the number of actual cases now could be over twenty times what is seen in the diagnoses.

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca [medium.com]

    • it'll be 10 times higher [in terms of positive test results] in two weeks, not four.

      I got 18 to 20 days for a 10-fold increase, but that's close enough for government work . Even fairly small changes in bulk behaviour can considerably affect transmission rates.

      The actual story is utterly unremarkable. Having just finished reading a book on the 1918 pandemic waves (a book I brought late last year and hadn't got round to reading), they couldn't put tighter error bars on the 1918 Indian body count than +/- 10

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