Americans Should Prepare For Coronavirus Crisis in US, CDC Says (nbcnews.com) 253
Top U.S. public health officials said Tuesday that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country. From a report: "It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the head of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during a media briefing Tuesday. Measures to contain the virus in the U.S. so far have involved restricting travel to and from China -- the center of the outbreak -- and isolating identified cases. But Messonnier said evidence that the virus is spreading to countries outside the region, such as Iran and Italy, has raised the CDC's "level of concern and expectation that we'll see spread" in the U.S.
You can listen to the CDC media briefings ... (Score:5, Informative)
Prepare? (Score:3)
We're supposed to prepare? How, exactly? I kind of think this is out of our hands...
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We're supposed to prepare? How, exactly?
Stock up on limes.
I'm ready.
Re:Prepare? (Score:5, Funny)
We're supposed to prepare? How, exactly? I kind of think this is out of our hands...
Stock up on toilet paper, ammo, canned food, and generator fuel. And get a flamethrower. I'm not sure what you'll need a flamethrower for, but they are great for zombies, aliens, sterilization of an area, wasp nests, heating canned food, getting nosey neighbors to leave you alone. Actually I'm not sure why you wouldn't have a flamethrower.
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CDC used to have a great poster that showed how to prepare for the inevitable zombie apocalypse. Point being if you were prepared for that, you could probably handle lesser emergencies like power outages, disease outbreaks, etc.
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They still do [cdc.gov]
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> I'm not sure why you wouldn't have a flamethrower.
The wife thinks it's a bit "excessive" and I "get that crazy look in my eye". But I am just having fun. . [youtube.com]
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Its my wife's weapon of choice.
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Actually I'm not sure why you wouldn't have a flamethrower.
Because, it burns though that generator fuel too fast.. Stick with some landmines and claymores.
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Heheheh...reminds me of one bright spark who decided he really didn't like those ground wasps near his house. The use of gasoline should have given him a clue it wouldn't end well. It didn't, and took his house out. No statement from the ground wasps was available on what they thought of the whole affair.
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Re:Prepare? (Score:5, Interesting)
Well, preparing starts with thinking. Understandably that doesn't get most people very far.
Start with what's most important to you. Who would take care of your kids if you got sick? What will you do with them if their school is closed for a month or so? Who is going to check up on your parents? How will you keep your business running when customers are afraid to got here?
*If* the thing reaches epidemic proportions here, the chances are still that you won't get it. If you do get it, the chances are you will fully recover. But well below the point where a thing like this forces you to finally confront your own mortality, it's going to have economic and practical effects, even on people who don't catch it.
First we need a name - The Wu (Score:2)
The Wu, like it's cousin the Flu, is an infectious disease that is easily transmissible between humans. We're hoping the Wu is similar to the Flu in that it predominantly is experienced in Winter. We think washing hands and protecting the nose and mouth from contamination may slow the spread of the Wu.
Coronavirus is too long and is also easily confused with a crappy beer. Covid-whatever is too technical.
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And it may also be transmissible between humans, bats and snakes - but all of this is awaiting confirmation.
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The virus will kill 3% or so...
Re:Prepare? (Score:5, Interesting)
If people are scared enough to be diligent about hand washing, then the spread of infection will be greatly mitigated.
All the measures to try to contain the disease also at least helps slow things down and together with all the investment in investigating treatments may improve the prognosis.
As weather conditions change, the spread may also be mitigated.
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Farmers really don't have issues getting crops planted and harvested, or animals to the slaughterhouse. Or even transporting things to the warehouses. The problems come from the warehouses/shipping docks to the final destination. Where tens-of-thousands of trucks roll in and out every day. JiT if you live in a major urban area means you've got food for 3-7 days in your average supermarket.
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Yeah when I was a kid we went through the great ice storm here in Ontario, and we didn't have electricity for 3 months as all of the local and regional transmission lines had to be rebuilt. Most days it was -15C at night? Well we had nights where it was -35C. Living through a disaster like that instills a healthy desire to make sure you're prepared. My friends in FL, and TX generally plan around 2 months of food and water, and in terms of water having a backup system like a good ceramic water filter that
You do know only about 11% work in farming (Score:2)
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Every time? What am I, the Pope?
and duct tape (Score:2)
Just saying
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The wealthy will flee to nations like New Zealand.
They may try, but if the virus becomes widespread in the USA but not in New Zealand, why would New Zealand let them land there?
First, we had to prepare for the zombie apocalypse (Score:4, Funny)
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Every time I feel like paying more for the same thing for no reason, I avoid Walmart.
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I might not ever come back (Score:2)
An international travel ban is prudent (Score:2)
I think it would be wise to ban all international travel and stop all incoming flights. I would much rather disrupt peoples travel plans rather than to put their lives in jeopardy. Besides, most business people would welcome a travel ban because no one really wants to get on an airplane right now, so it would give them an out to avoid travel they don't want to take anyway. We have teleconferencing so airplane travel is obsolete anyway. Everyone should call the White House comment line (google for the number
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Nations wont do that due to tax income from education and holiday spending.
Add in virtue signalling that they are still open to all. Political correctness.
Govs said no to their best experts and trusted in the need for shopping, hotels, education spending and tax income.
Re "We have teleconferencing" thats does not work for a nations real production lines, services, utility companies.
Real people have to actuall
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I think it would be wise to ban all international travel and stop all incoming flights
I mean you could do that. The stock market would fucking go insane and an economic catastrophe that would take years to recover from would happen, but yeah, you totally could do that. I'm not saying keeping the stock market propped up is a reason to let people die, I'm just pointing out that, you're going to have serious knee jerks that have real world consequences if you did that. Once you sound the alarm, there going to be folks who hit the panic button.
Note: (Score:2, Informative)
Dr. Nancy Messonnier is not the head of the CDC, nor is she the head of the CDC division most applicable to this case (National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, NCEZID), nor is she the head of the CDC's response team to COVID-19. There are tens of thousands of medical professionals in the world with strong credentials, and any random one's views should not be treated as gospel.
That said, that doesn't mean she's wrong. Iran's inaction (ongoing) has made it much harder to contain (now
Winter is ending in the Northern Hemisphere (Score:2)
So Yay for us Northerners, I guess.
And we don't even know if Winter will slow down the Wu. Just cause the Flu doesn't spread as much in Summer doesn't mean the Wu is going to do the same.
Re:Note: (Score:5, Informative)
Jesus Christ, you're a prat. "[T]he head of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention" provided a briefing concerning the spread of a respiratory disease and you, in your infinite and expert wisdom, declare that only the staff of the Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases division are qualified in the matter while implying that the COVID-19 response team is, what, completely separate from NCIRD?
Well you're wrong [cdc.gov] (look at the center identified at the bottom of the page). She's not a random one [cdc.gov]. She's been briefing the situation since January [google.com]. NCEZID has not.
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A big problem for the Mid-East is they seem enamored with making pilgrimages to "holy" sites. That and the locals don't really give a flying rat's ass about borders. Given the authoritarian and incompetent governments, it is not a rosy picture. The continuous wars are not a recipe for effective health care. Neither is a religion who seems to have "fate" as a central tenet, i.e., if Allah wills it.
No problem (Score:2)
Reinfection .... (Score:4, Insightful)
Thinking ahead, if this spreads, it will be a pandemic.
But then what?
Do people get lifetime immunity?
Or will it keep circulating?
Let us ignore the flu (H?N?) viruses for the moment. The problem for the flu is that it mutates every season, so vaccines are guesswork.
Some cases of the Common Cold are indeed caused by viruses in the Coronavirus family.
These include: Human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E), Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and Human coronavirus HKU1.
There is no vaccine so far for MERS or SARS (the closest to Covid19), so that is out, unless that new Moderna vaccine is proven.
What about immunity for those surviving it? That does not seem to be the case for the Human Coronavirii that cause the Common Cold. And that is the bad part: it will reinfect, respread, and chances is that it will be severe or kill.
That is scary.
Can a virologist comment on any of this?
Dive in face first (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm taking an entirely different approach than everyone else. As soon as I hear of someone locally getting Coronavirus, I'm rushing down to the hospital and breathing near their face. Start touching my eyes, my nose, etc until I'm well infected.
See, then I'll be one of the FIRST cases they treat, and I will have a fully staffed medical department to draw on. As the epidemic grows, resources will be stretched thin and my chances of getting treated drop dramatically. :-P
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I have literally not encountered a single soul who said that and I frequent 9gag.
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Isn't America just waking up? They will all be along soon. Just come back later and see that I was right. :)
It's happened in every single article about the virus, it's not hard to go look.
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Isn't America just waking up?
East coast started waking up several hours ago. Hawaii won't start waking up until another hour. America's big, mate.
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Sorry for the delayed response. I was just finishing off the last of my swine flu protein bars.
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"Store some water."
Is there some reason that the kitchen tap is not going to work? Electricity? My deep well pump should work if the electric does
That's nice, but most people don't have wells on their property, they rely on a municipal water service that could go down anytime. I agree that it's usually pretty reliable, but that means nothing as soon as it stops working.
We store some food and water and other stuff as a matter of course because we're in earthquake country, but to deny that this virus could turn into a genuine pandemic is pretty shortsighted.
The graveyards are filled with people who, when faced with the possibility of a disaster, said "
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Re: 3...2...1... (Score:5, Informative)
It is a strain of the common cold not the flu. Coronavirus makes up an estimated 30% of common colds while rhinovirus is the other 70%. The flu is influenza and is a different virus so calling it a more deadly version of the common cold is more accurate than calling it the flu.
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Buy non-perishable food that you like and get 3 months of it now.
If you like rice get 20 lbs today and 20 lbs tomorrow. One pound of rice = 1500 kcal; same for beans.
Buy oil; make certain you have enough salt. Do it now before it gets bad. The more people prepare before the panic the better it is for everyone.
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2% is overall estimate not the current rate.
Currently there are 30k who have recovered and almost 2800 who died, that falls more along the line of 8%.
2 weeks ago it was closer to 20% fatality rate and as time goes on it will drop more. The only reason they bandy the 2% number is to stop panic from ensuing.
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https://science.slashdot.org/s... [slashdot.org]
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I agree it's *probably* not as bad, the difference is we've long since lost the war on flu. It was over before it started, we never had any chance of preventing most people from being exposed to the flu every year.
One reason to do everything we can to limit transmission of this thing is to keep it from getting worse. That has already happened. People have been exposed to coranviruses from pangolins for years at that seafood market before one mutation hit the genetic jackpot.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:5, Informative)
It's not 'flu. It's also not the end of the world [medscape.com] with mortality rates stabilizing around 2-3%. And this rate is determined using confirmed cases of Coronavirus - it's likely that many more people have it or have had it and been asymptomatic or without official diagnosis, so the real rate is probably less. For comparison SARS has a 10% mortality rate and MERS around 40%. But the press loves to hype stuff and scare the crap out of people, because doctors don't have enough to do during a pandemic so let's flood all the emergency rooms with hypochondriacs.
By the way, if you can no longer afford face masks (funny how the prices shot up) don't sweat it. Frequent hand washing [cdc.gov] is still the most effective way of avoiding infection. The "airborne droplet" method of transmission is much less effective than people believe. The most common method of transmission is a sick person shedding virus onto their hands after wiping their nose, then touching and contaminating some surface which you later touch yourself. Humans generally stick their hands in their faces several times a day, and that's how you get it. If you wash your hands often you reduce this risk.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:5, Interesting)
It's also not the end of the world [medscape.com] with mortality rates stabilizing around 2-3%
It's about the impact. It spreads more like influenza than SARS or MERS. And influenza has a mortality rate of closer to 0.1%. Yet people still fear spreading the flu every year because that 0.1% could still be people they know. With estimates of it potentially hitting half the US population in the next year, that's at least 3 million deaths. The human race will survive - the majority will be unharmed. But hospitals will be totally overrun. Deaths from other illnesses that would have hit anyway will increase simply because healthcare is not available. Forget the ER being flooded with hypochondriacs - there's going to be enough cases to flood the hospital regardless. Especially since lots more are hospitalized than die - there's going to be way more than 6 million people in our hospitals if the estimate bears out.
I'm not saying panic. But scaring people enough to at least remember basic hygiene is in order.
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Re:3...2...1... (Score:4, Interesting)
influenza has a mortality rate of closer to 0.1%. Yet people still fear spreading the flu every year because that 0.1% could still be people they know.
Objection. You're implying that people try to contain the flu because they're concerned that people they know will die. I have literally never known anyone whose motivations for avoiding the flu included that; I don't doubt such people exist, but I am also quite sure that the vast majority of people try to avoid the flu because the mere experience of having it sucks for a few days.
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I don't get the flu vaccine. But I would if I worked with children or elderly - even if it wasn't required by law. And I'm sure I'm not alone in that.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:4, Insightful)
Even if you don't work with children or the elderly, getting the vaccine is an excellent thing to do if your goal is to prevent children and the elderly from getting the flu, because of the logistics of herd immunity. I always get the vaccine because I hate having the flu, but I certainly don't mind the side effect of it making the world better for others.
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The logistics of herd immunity does not apply to the flu vaccine. In fact, it does nearly the opposite. The vaccine for a given year is based around what strains are likely to be prevalent. If too many people get vaccinated, that will actually serve to change what strains DO become prevalent. And that will make the flu vaccine less effective for children and the elderly. And the last few years, that's exactly what has happened. Vaccination rates are higher, and the vaccine missed the mark on which str
Re:3...2...1... (Score:4, Insightful)
Indeed, The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28 . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3 . What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads significantly faster than the seasonal flu.
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is at least 2-3% . This is 20-30 times higher than the CFR of the season flu, which is below 0.1% .
SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms . This makes it much more difficult to control.
Roughly 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention . This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu.
Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days.
There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 whereas people regularly get annual flu shots.
There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. See, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.
Now consider the multiplicative effect that all of these attributes have for the virus. Compared to the seasonal flu, SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.
These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that 20% of cases require medical intervention.
It doesn't take a genius to piece it all together. This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail. Far worse than the seasonal flu.
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The aftermath is not from the deaths. It's the completely overrun healthcare system. About 10 times more than those who die will also need medical attention. Schools will shut down - industrial/service/construction workers both get sick and have sick kids at home. If this goes big, the story won't be about 97% of the human race surviving.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not 'flu. It's also not the end of the world [medscape.com] with mortality rates stabilizing around 2-3%. And this rate is determined using confirmed cases of Coronavirus - it's likely that many more people have it or have had it and been asymptomatic or without official diagnosis, so the real rate is probably less. For comparison SARS has a 10% mortality rate and MERS around 40%. But the press loves to hype stuff and scare the crap out of people, because doctors don't have enough to do during a pandemic so let's flood all the emergency rooms with hypochondriacs.
As much fun as it is to blame the press, the hysteria is largely based on the inroads that safety culture has made. We now as societies, freak out over anything. As well, a lot of people will go into conspiracy mode if the press doesn't report much. So the press is in a no-win situation in that regard.
But yes, the panic is overblown.
I fear that from here on out, we're going to freak out every flu season, with death counts, and the always scary videos of Chinese people wearing their ubiquitous masks.
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Face masks have been hard to find for over a month already. They're made in China.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:5, Insightful)
The danger is drowning in your own fluids in your bed at home because the hospitals are overwhelmed with patients who are also drowning. That 2-3% mortality rate you mention is only applicable with proper hospital care.
Without? God only knows...
Re:3...2...1... (Score:4, Informative)
80% of cases are treatable with the traditional stay in bed and drink plenty of fluids.
15% are more serious, but not fatal.
5% end up in the ICU. 60% of that group die, giving the 3% over all mortality.
If the health care system collapses under the load, the entire 5% will die, and maybe a few of the 15%. Not civilization ending by any means. Small pox epidemics routinely took out a third of the people who caught it and civilization survived fine.
What it could do is seriously thin out the over eighty population.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:5, Informative)
The 2% (now 3%) that people are quoting is misleading. That number is deaths / confirmed cases. You can't include the people who are still sick in that denominator. To get the real fatality rate you need to include only those who have completed the game: the dead and the recovered. As of this morning, https://covid19info.live/ [covid19info.live] is reporting 81275 confirmed, 2770 deaths, 30315 recovered. For a moment let's assume the CCP has accurate numbers. That means there are currently 48190 people who are still sick. I doubt they will all survive, but we don't know how many will. Let's also be optimistic and assume you can't get reinfected. So the "game" is over for 2770 + 30315 people, or 33085 people. Of those, 2770 have died. That's a fatality rate of 8.37%.
There are a lot of questions about the accuracy of the CCP's numbers so let's take the China numbers out of the equation and just look at the rest of the world. The same web site reports 2755 confirmed, 45 dead, 255 recovered. The number looks good if you do the bad math of dead / confirmed = 1.63%, but again many of those confirmed and still infected won't survive. Of the people who have gone through the disease, 45 / (45 + 255 ) = 15% have died.
Can you get reinfected as the virus mutates? If so, those percentages go up.
One glimmer of hope: Since supposedly ~80% of the cases are mild, it's possible that many mild cases aren't being confirmed and included in those numbers. If that's the case, those percentages would go down. Unfortunately, it would appear that those people with mild cases and/or showing no symptoms are still very capable of spreading the disease. That's very bad compared to SARS and MERS which weren't contagious until symptoms were present, making them much easier to stamp out.
Many people keep quoting absolute numbers about the flu. Things like "the flu killed 16k people this year alone" and such. If the current trends continue, COVID-19 will kill that many people outside of China by about the 21st of March.
Re:3...2...1... (Score:4, Interesting)
Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, said a protective antibody is generated in those who are infected.
"However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long," Li said. "For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse."
Li urged patients who have recovered from COVID-19 to be vigilant in their hygiene, such as washing their hands often.
It's the perfect microstorm.
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How did this garbage comment get such a high Informative rating? This is a gross abuse of statistics.
People in the Dead group typically arrive there prematurely, before their ~2 weeks of infection is over. People in the Sick group will thus be over-represented by
people that will recover, because the people that recover spend a longer time in the Sick group than people that die. Some of the folks that are Dead would otherwise still be in the Sick category, and thus removing the Sick category from the equ
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You got it half right, unfortunately.
The half you missed is that it appears that some percentage of people are asymptomatic carriers. Until we know what that percentage is, you're making a worst-case estimate here.
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. Your argument to use that is easily dismissed by "what if it is a chronic disease?"
That's a straw man if I ever saw one. Not talking about long-term infections here. We're talking about cases that haven't even run the normal 1-2 week course of a severe illness. You can't count them out of the mortality rate until the normal course has run. It's fair to say percentage of mortalities for cases 2 weeks old maybe. But counting everyone that just got the disease when the spread is exponential means it will hugely deflate the perceived mortality rate without looking closely at all the numb
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The local doctor cant help. Mask up and suit up for every visit and test?
The local smaller clinic cant.
Then its all on the large hospital. Open to all.
How many beds are ready for many people needing expert care every 24 hours?
How much ambulance use can an advanced city support during normal months every year?
Call an ambulance? The next free ambulance is still waiting for hours outside the main hospital and wont be sent out aga
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I don't want to argue this to hard, but your analysis of the numbers is kind of flawed..
You really don't know the mortality rate unless you limit your "infected" count to only include those who have recovered. The reason for this is you don't really know if those who are currently sick will die or not. IF you figure the percentage of the dead verses the fully recovered, the mortality rate jumps to something over 10%. That tells me that the eventual death rate, world wide will be between 2% and 10% which
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Cue all the idiots claiming it just the flu...
I believe the current statement is it is slightly less deadly than the average flu.
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You mean like this one [cnbc.com]?
He doesn't care what happens to people, as long as the markets don't suffer.
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The Guardian is lying to you. Congress passes budgets, presidents make wishlist budgets and pass them to congress. There is a compromise between the two, then the president signs the finalized budget.
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Re:Don't worry (Score:4, Informative)
So you've just admitted that the article is lying. And I personally like the "pandemic head was fired(sic)" when the person quit.
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Congress passes budgets, presidents make wishlist budgets and pass them to congress.
Yeah, but it's still up to the President to actually spend the money. Which seeing how he's basically given power of the purse in Congress the middle finger, your argument is pretty moot. Additionally, if nobody in Congress stands up to him for blowing all the money on walls instead of preventing an outbreak, it doesn't really matter what any law or dusty piece of paper says. If nobody enforces the law, it's all a moot point.
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That's not how budget allocation works in the US. Since each dept get's it's funding and they decide how it goes. The only part that's not moot is how many people are fundamentally ignorant of how their tax dollars being spent. If you wanted to scream from the rooftop that you're either not American, or skipped high school civics...good job.
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The opioid epidemic. What has that to do with infectious diseases? Nothing
The gun epidemic. Again, what has that to do with infectious diseases.
Obesity. Same thing.
AIDS (huh!! - in the 1980s yes, but not now. Much less so.)
if an
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The basic problem is that much U.S. business relies upon world-wide travel. Them's Americans and no tightening of the border or any other fantasies you may have over foreigners is going to change that.
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Yes, because walls at the southern border will prevent Chinese from getting into our country. You know what? If those walls can actually administer the CDC test kit to people, I'll be happy to support them. Otherwise, those walls are still a stupid thing to be blowing "emergency funds" on (that Congress didn't authorize mind you) and then ten years later nobody wants to maintain them. They'll just crumble just like the walls that barely got any funding during W's time in office. If there's one thing th
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How many times have you seen a bank premises whose perimeter was 2000 miles?
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Who but a stable genius would have had the brilliant idea of trying an Ebola vaccine for a coronavirus? Or changing the course of hurricanes with nuclear weapons? Or buying Greenland off of the Danes?
It's easier to think outside the box if you don't even know where the box is.
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trump is busy running everyone out of government who doesn't worship him and toe his line. Remind me, which Democrat has done that?
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