Wildfires Have Changed. It's Time the Science Did Too.

A group of researchers are working to find a bigger, better way to predict how the world's deadliest blazes will behave. One mathematical model provides the spine for almost every computer program used to analyze wildfire behavior in the US, yet there are a number of factors it doesn't include, Technology Review reports. As a result, fire behavior analysts have been bolting an almost endless series of adjustments onto it. Today the model can't deal with everything the environment is throwing at it, from the number of dead trees now standing in America's forests to fluctuating wind speeds. So the Fire Lab is trying to build a brand new model for the first time in half a century. Inside the lab, the team is trying to better understand and predict fire behavior, in all its complexity. The big prize? A complete theory that can explain fire behavior, not just predict it.he number of dead trees now standing in America's forests to fluctuating wind speeds. So the Fire Lab is trying to build a brand new model for the first time in half a century.

Groom the forests? Good luck!

[deviated_prevert]

Or lose your disaster relief! That from the worlds greatest expert on why the fire seasons are becoming more dangerous. Obviously the fire patterns are going to change drastically when you have persistent drought conditions in places where there were fairly reliable summer rains. Eventually the fire patterns are going to spread north on the West Coast along with dryer seasons and less snow and less rain in summer on the Pacific Coast range, the cascades and the Rockies.

The pattern seems to be an eventual lo

Re:

[LynnwoodRooster]

Where do we now "have persistent drought conditions in places where there were fairly reliable summer rains"? Just curious...

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[Kyr Arvin]

Where do we now "have persistent drought conditions in places where there were fairly reliable summer rains"? Just curious...

I remember summers in the Sierra Nevada in the 1970s and 1980s. We called it the Indian Summer -- hot and dry and non-stop (apparently we misused the term, it's supposed to refer to autumn months). They had thunderstorms, and there was rain. It's been a long time since I've seen those occurring in the months between May and October. Slightly hotter temperatures have also resulted in the trees drying out faster before the end of the summer months, and the 2014-2017 drought also weakened the trees enough for

You cannot change the laws of physics...

[DeadSeaTrolls]

But you could probably clear all the dead trees and brush.

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[Roger W Moore]

You cannot change the laws of physics...

Try telling that to Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg, Schrodinger, Dirac, Higgs...

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[Mashiki]

But you could probably clear all the dead trees and brush.

Good luck. There's millions of acres of dead pine trees killed by pine beetles, and there's a growing demand for the wood since it has blue streaking in it. It can't be used for straight pulp unfortunately it's too cost intensive to remove the pigment, but guess what the problem is? Environmentalists, environmental regulations, government, and blocking of clear cutting these entire dead forests in phases(with partial burn and mulching) and planting new trees.

Sit back, enjoy the shitshow because all it's

Re:

[flyingfsck]

Monoculture is a big part of the problem. The profitable trees also burn the fastest. This is well known, but the forestry operators don't want to learn yet.

the biggest problems

[Raymond Berry]

The major factors in wildfires endangering the human population is the spread of those communities into areas that historically had few people in them. Furthermore, as those communities were allowed to sprout, they upset a balance that put laws intended to protect certain species of flower and fauna used as ways to discourage buildup of brush and dead trees, which were essential to minimizing fire spread and using natural barriers for containment. Pile up too many matchsticks, and that fire kindling (usua

The earth is fighting back

[ghoul]

The earth wants to be warmer. Humans are trying to keep it cold by fighting climate change so the earth is fighting back through forest fires which pump out much more carbon dioxide than all of human industry.

Almost as if more energy going in = big events

[WillAffleckUW]

It's almost as if all the climate models were right, and the increased energy feeding into the climate systems are magnifying all the climate events like forest fires, windstorms, drought, rain, hurricanes, and storms and the inputs are multiplying together to create 50,000-year firestorms and floods.

Which they are.

You have seven years.

In each of those seven years you have to reduce global emissions by 7%.

There is no "except" in that statement. It will escalate and it will get much worse.

Your actions now m

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[winse]

soooo.... what happens in 7 years? According to which models? hasn't "it" already escalated? or are you referring to something other than rhetoric? maybe California should sequester all of their firewood for a hundred years or so instead of burning it. Like maybe build homes out of it or something https://www.sfchronicle.com/ba... [sfchronicle.com]

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[WillAffleckUW]

Read the COP25 transcripts.

There's your answer.

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[LynnwoodRooster]

You do realize that tornadoes are dropping [noaa.gov], world cyclonic energy is dropping [climatlas.com], droughts are breaking [pbs.org], and weather is moderating [yaleclimat...ctions.org] (highs aren't getting higher, lows are getting higher [nytimes.com])? That's kind of the opposite of what you're saying...

Ptolemy's complaint

[mi]

One mathematical model provides the spine for almost every computer program used to analyze wildfire behavior in the US, yet there are a number of factors it doesn't include

Sounds like something Ptolemy would say about his own model [chegg.com]...

Yup

[sproketboy]

We need more SJW Science! Fuck Reality!