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Earth Science Technology

The World May Already Have Crossed a Series of Climate Tipping Points (theguardian.com) 341

The world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, according to a stark warning from scientists. This risk is "an existential threat to civilization," they say, meaning "we are in a state of planetary emergency." From a report: Tipping points are reached when particular impacts of global heating become unstoppable, such as the runaway loss of ice sheets or forests. In the past, extreme heating of 5C was thought necessary to pass tipping points, but the latest evidence suggests this could happen between 1C and 2C. The planet has already heated by 1C and the temperature is certain to rise further, due to past emissions and because greenhouse gas levels are still rising. The scientists further warn that one tipping point, such as the release of methane from thawing permafrost, may fuel others, leading to a cascade. The researchers acknowledge that the complex science of tipping points means great uncertainty remains. But they say the potential damage from the tipping points is so big and the time to act so short, that "to err on the side of danger is not a responsible option." They call for urgent international action. "A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping could still be under our control to some extent," they write. "The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril. International action -- not just words -- must reflect this."
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The World May Already Have Crossed a Series of Climate Tipping Points

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  • Is real estate in Alaska is a good deal?
    • Is real estate in Alaska is a good deal?

      Only if it's on stone, and not in the path of a future glacier if the weather int flips around to negative. Build not your house upon the melting permafrost. Also, it helps to be gay or female but not both, because there's a severe woman shortage up there.

    • Don't buy it, it's a folly.
    • Is real estate in Alaska is a good deal?

      Well, given that the Obamas recently spent millions to purchase a mansion in the Hamptons right on the Atlantic coast, it seems pretty clear that they don't consider the threat of sea level rise that President Obama was flogging left, right and center as part of his 'climate crisis' agenda to be much of a risk, despite all of the predictions of six or more feet of sea level rise by 2100. Makes you wonder how much of the rest of the anthropogenic climate change agenda is posturing, driven by the desire to ex

  • About right (Score:5, Insightful)

    by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Thursday November 28, 2019 @10:27AM (#59466476)
    -We didn’t know

    -Ok, we knew but it’s not a big deal

    -Ok, it’s a big deal but there’s nothing that could be done about it

    -Ok, we could have fixed it but it’s too late now so let’s keep doing it anyway {— you are here
    • "Party on dudes!" - Bill and Ted.

    • Re:About right (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Thursday November 28, 2019 @11:40AM (#59466798)
      -We didnâ(TM)t know

      -Ok, we knew but itâ(TM)s not a big deal

      -Ok, it seems to be a big deal. Let's switch from fossil fuels to nuclear to prevent it. What? You don't want us doing that? I guess you don't really believe it yourself then.

      -Ok, we could have fixed it but you keep opposing nuclear. So either you don't really believe it and we can keep going, or you'll eventually come around and we can just switch to nuclear. {â" you are here

      FTFY. Remember, nuclear doesn't have to be the end solution. All we need to do is switch to it to give ourselves millenia instead of decades before ecological disaster, and during the time it buys us we can develop renewables and battery technology at our leisure. And when those are to the point where they can handle base load, they can replace nuclear.
      • Gen IV nuclear is safe and cleaner than manufacturing billions of square meters of solar, and wasting land on thousand and thousands of acres of wind and solar farms. Nuclear probably is the end solution actually, it also need to be the current solution.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Well, personally I have been watching this development for something like 30 years now and your analysis is pretty much spot-on.

    • by Uecker ( 1842596 )

      You forgot:

      - Ok, but the others have to reduce their CO2 output first.

  • Then I don't have to do anything about it. Buh bye.

  • by Mspangler ( 770054 ) on Thursday November 28, 2019 @10:47AM (#59466556)

    Look that up on Wikipedia. They have a nice graph. We are still not as warm as we were 6000 years ago.

    "Out of 140 sites across the western Arctic, there is clear evidence for conditions warmer than now at 120 sites. At 16 sites, where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures were on average 1.6±0.8 C higher than now. "

    The previous interglacial was warmer than the Holocene. Life failed to end. However sea level was 6 meters higher.

    The Pliocene climactic optimum was even warmer. There was no ice cap on Greenland, but sea level was 25 meters higher.

    So life will be fine, but tell the kids that ocean beaches should be visited, not lived on.

    • The danger is that the current temperature rise is a lot quicker than it was in the paleontological past. If temperatures increase 2C over hundreds of thousands of years, that gives organisms time to adapt and move. Trees (whose rate of movement is a few meters per decade - how far they can drop their seeds to form the next generation of trees) have enough time to "travel" hundreds or thousands of km, to keep themselves within the climate more suitable for them. If it rises 2C over a hundred years, the s
      • The danger is that the current temperature rise is a lot quicker than it was in the paleontological past.

        No, that's not the danger. Faster change will be tough for many organisms to survive, but that just means that new ecological niches will open up and it will be a great opportunity for an explosion of speciation. Life will be just fine. The end result of the K-T extinction was a more vibrant and diverse global ecology.

        Human civilization, on the other hand, is more fragile. That is the danger. We're not at risk of destroying "the planet", we're at risk of destroying ourselves. Or, even if we want to

    • You're right that life didn't end 6000 years ago. How did Miami fare 6000 years ago? How about New York? How about Bangladesh?
    • The claim is not that life on earth will end. Your logical fallacy is "moving the goalposts". The claim is that the situation will be bad for humans. Nobody gives a fuck if the cockroaches and tardigrades will be happy.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      This risk is "an existential threat to civilization," they say

      Life will be fine. Civilization is a lot more delicate.

  • These people,,,, (Score:2, Insightful)

    by theblkadder ( 671343 )
    Are essentially the same as the guy standing in Times Square with a sign screaming "THE END IS NIGH! REPENT SINNERS!"
    That is to say they are a doomsday cult. They've been incorrectly predicting world-ending "tipping points" for years now.
    Global cooling, global warming, supposed extreme weather cycles that didn't happen either, take your pick.The only thing they've been consistent about is being WRONG.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      You are essentially incapable of separating wild claims and solid scientific results. Pretty pathetic. Here is a hint: It matters what process the predictions are generated by.

  • OMG the sky is falling! Meh, don't buy on the coast line and you'll be fine.
  • US oligarchs (Score:5, Informative)

    by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 ) on Thursday November 28, 2019 @11:17AM (#59466714)
    a couple points:
    1) the US is the ONLY country in the developed world where climate change is under "debate"
    2) 85% of conservatives reject global warming
    https://www.esquire.com/news-p... [esquire.com]
    Corporate oligarchs gain and maintain their wealth by harvesting and / or burning carbon. These same oligarchs have purchased the US GOP leadership and engaged in a decades long game of war on science. Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon, and former Trumpkin lackey, admitted Climate change was real, caused by man, and research done by Exxon going back to the 1970's indicated so.
    Tillerson stated in court: “We knew it was a serious issue and we knew it was one that's going to be with us now forever more,”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
    Though Tillerson denied engaging in misinformation. (cough, bulls*it,cough)
    The bottom line is that till the US changes how elections are funded, the planet is phucked.
    • "The bottom line is that till the US changes how elections are funded, the planet is phucked."

      Oh, voters are supposed to change things? You just said 85% of the conservatives believe that the current climate change crisis is a hoax, so you expect them to vote for giving up plane travel, giving up their cars, riding buses and trains, giving up most of their hobbies that require transportation to places public transportation doesn't go, going to bed at 8 PM because the public transport all stops about then a

    • Re:US oligarchs (Score:5, Insightful)

      by spth ( 5126797 ) on Thursday November 28, 2019 @12:26PM (#59467008)

      In China and India, there seems to be no debate, but I get the impression that neither of these two countries (though you might argue that India is not developed) is making sufficient efforts to reduce emissions.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by fenrif ( 991024 )

        SHH. We don't talk about India and China in these threads. And we certainly don't talk back to the self-appointed doom-sayers. Their word is law. And their word says that only white people burn fossil fuels and drive cars.

      • Most of China is also not developed. Otherwise, they'd emit a lot more CO2.

    • The U.S. is also one of the places that has greatly exceeded climate goals, so who cares if we actually follow the spirit of the scientific method instead of joining in the cult full-bore?

  • Say Tipping Point one more damn time!

  • There is no may.

    When your fuel gauge reads below the red, and your car coughs and splutters to a halt, your fuel tank "may" be empty?

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      your car coughs and splutters to a halt

      But it's a Tesla. Odds are it stalled because they didn't bring enough nuclear plants on line to charge it.

  • If the climate is so unstable that our contribution could kick off true Venusian runaway global warming then it compounds the miracle of our existence to unbelievable levels.

    At most we are kicking off a big oscillatory period during which industrial human civilization will cease to exist.

    • If the climate is so unstable that our contribution could kick off true Venusian runaway global warming then it compounds the miracle of our existence to unbelievable levels.

      There is no great pumpkin, but there is a great filter.

  • Do you know what it's called when someone keeps pointing out a problem without offering a solution? Whining.

    Can you understand why people get so annoyed when you bring this subject up? All you do is sit there and scream "You need to do something!"

    So what do you want people to do? People can then talk about what could be done. Can we move past this already?
    • Do you know what it's called when someone keeps pointing out a problem without offering a solution? Whining.

      That's funny, we keep offering solutions, and denialists keep saying "we can't do that".

      Can you understand why people get so annoyed when you bring this subject up?

      Yes, because they don't want to make any changes, so they'll make any excuse to avoid having to do so, for example "you're whining".

      Can we move past this already?

      We'd love to, but denialists are still pretending the problem doesn't exist [esquire.com]. That's why we're continually stuck on trying to convince people that there's a problem.

      But let me just point out something about your comment...

      Do you know what it's called when someone keeps pointing out a problem without offering a solution? Whining. [...] Can we move past this already?

      You're whining.

      • That's funny, we keep offering solutions, and denialists keep saying "we can't do that".

        Where? What should I do? Vagueness here is exactly what I'm talking about. Surely some compromises could be made. Discussions could be had. But right now, you're pushing people away from that. You just want to stand on your soap box and say that your side is right and the other side is wrong. That is getting us nowhere. We need to move on from freaking out.

        • Where? What should I do?

          You should attempt aviary copulation with a ventrally rotating toroidal fried pastry, you disingenuous douchebag.

          You just want to stand on your soap box and say that your side is right and the other side is wrong.

          You just want to make stupid excuses in order to derail the argument. If you really wanted to know this stuff, a) you would have been listening all the times we told you before, b) you wouldn't vote for candidates who deny global warming, and c) you'd fucking google it, instead of posting to Slashbot.

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