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Earth Nearing 'Meteor Swarm' That May Have Caused 1908 Tunguska Event (cbsnews.com) 181

A reader quotes a report from CBS News: A swarm of meteors heading towards Earth could have the potential to cause a catastrophic impact, a new study from Western Ontario University says. The so-called Taurid swarm is a recurring event that some scientists believe could have played a role in the biggest Earth impact of modern times, in 1908, when a space rock slammed into Siberia with enough force to destroy an entire forest. What has become known as the Tunguska explosion of 1908 was so powerful that the blast leveled 80 million trees over an 800-square-mile area. It's considered to be a one-in-1,000-year event, according to Western Ontario University. But while the Tunguska explosion occurred just over a century ago, another such phenomenon could occur much sooner than its 1,000-year expectancy, the researchers say. That's why they're focusing new attention on the Taurid swarm.

The Taurid swarm is a dense cluster of meteors within the Taurid meteor stream. Earth periodically passes through the Taurid swarm, and it is one of the three space phenomenons that could result in a catastrophic collision. Near Earth Objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and meteoroids, as well as comets are the other two potential causes. The Taurid swarm is created when Earth passes through the debris left behind by Comet Encke, according to NASA. The comet's dust barrels through Earth's atmosphere at 65,000 mph, burns up and creates a meteor shower. This Taurid meteor shower is usually weak, but there are some years where it is more visible, NASA says. The Taurid swarm heightens the possibility of a large collision, Western Ontario University researchers hypothesized. This summer, Earth will approach within 30,000,000 km of the center of the Taurid swarm, the study says. That would be Earth's closest encounter with the swarm since 1975 and the best viewing opportunity we'll have until the early 2030s.

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Earth Nearing 'Meteor Swarm' That May Have Caused 1908 Tunguska Event

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  • Phenomenons? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by taiwanjohn ( 103839 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @02:51AM (#58759760)

    Earth periodically passes through the Taurid swarm, and it is one of the three space phenomenons that could result in a catastrophic collision.

    I hate to be a grammar nazi, but please... the plural of phenomenon is phenomena.

    That said, I'm slightly disappointed that TFA didn't mention the Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis [wikipedia.org] which some say may also be associated with the Taurid meteor stream.

    • by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @03:26AM (#58759844) Journal

      phenomena

      do do, do.do.do

      phenomena

      do.do.do

      • Re:Phenomenons? (Score:5, Informative)

        by taiwanjohn ( 103839 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @03:52AM (#58759888)

        Took me a while, but I finally got the Muppets reference... well played! ;-)

        • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

          Took me a while, but I finally got the Muppets reference... well played! ;-)

          I love it when Animal yells into the camera!!!

        • by Anonymous Coward
        • Potential downer here, but work with me for a moment please:

          It is actually a song from a porno made in the 60s. Someone here on Slashdot referenced it and provided a link... a decade ago? I wish I still had it, but the porn was just typical porn from the late 60 early 70s, so I eventually lost it.

          The OP also missed a 'do' at the end:

          Manamana, Do Do Du Do Do

          Manamana, Do do do do

          It really was a cute reference though. I use the Muppet Manamana video for brain cleansing after watching SIPR porn (don't ask).

          • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

            Potential downer here, but work with me for a moment please:

            It is actually a song from a porno made in the 60s.

            The muppets did a porno in the sixties? Was it Miss Piggie in her pre-sow days?

      • by Anonymous Coward

        phenomenomenomenom
        or
        phe-nom-nom-nom-nom-...

        The art to spelling 'banana' is knowing when to stop.

      • phenomena

        do do, do.do.do

        phenomena

        do.do.do

        I thought I was the only one who thought that every time I hear the word! So thank you for normalizing my weirdness, lol!

        • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

          I thought I was the only one who thought that every time I hear the word! So thank you for normalizing my weirdness, lol!

          You're welcome, it just shows you have a sense of humor. It's been looping in my head and now the joke is on me!!

      • phenomena

        do do, do.do.do

        phenomena

        do.do.do

        Best. Post. This. Month!

      • by EvilSS ( 557649 )
        Glad I'm not the only one that does this...
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      when a space rock slammed into Siberia with enough force to destroy an entire forest. What has become known as the Tunguska explosion of 1908

      The explosion in 1908 has not "become known" as that. We call it the Tunguska Event, which was an explosion.

      And it isn't exactly clear what it was. If something hit the ground, there would be a crater, and maybe there is, but no one has definitively discovered it. Some scientists believe it was a comet that disintegrated in the atmosphere. There is at least one theory

      • by Anonymous Coward

        It was Chuck Norrisâ(TM) grandfather telling trees they need to lie the fuck down.

      • by Anonymous Coward

        but though very likely a massive explosion, it seems to have occurred in the atmosphere for reasons unknown.

        There's plenty of examples of objects from space exploding above ground, one in Russia a few years ago in fact.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I hate to be a grammar nazi...

      That's Greek second declension word was borrowed into academic late Latin and isn't consistent with either Latin or English grammar and spelling so there's no point in preserving its plural form. That is, it was a technical term in the astronomy circles which were largely Greek speaking even when it was used in Latin texts in the same way English borrows French words for cooking so being consistent with the plural forms' grammar when you're inconsistent with the pronunciation is bad English grammar in servi

      • I hate to be a grammar nazi...

        That's Greek second declension word was borrowed into academic late Latin and isn't consistent with either Latin or English grammar and spelling so there's no point in preserving its plural form. That is, it was a technical term in the astronomy circles which were largely Greek speaking even when it was used in Latin texts in the same way English borrows French words for cooking so being consistent with the plural forms' grammar when you're inconsistent with the pronunciation is bad English grammar in service of Academic status signaling.

        https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/phaenomenon#Latin

        touché

      • I hate to be a grammar nazi...

        That's Greek second declension word was borrowed into academic late Latin and isn't consistent with either Latin or English grammar and spelling so there's no point in preserving its plural form. That is, it was a technical term in the astronomy circles which were largely Greek speaking even when it was used in Latin texts in the same way English borrows French words for cooking so being consistent with the plural forms' grammar when you're inconsistent with the pronunciation is bad English grammar in service of Academic status signaling.

        https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/phaenomenon#Latin

        What an odd phenomenon.

      • No point, you say?! The point is to show how smart I am, and how dumb you octupuses...er, octipoids...er octipoda...er, crabs are.

        • Sorry to tell you, but crabs are crustaceans - part of the arthropod superphylum - not molluscs. You're more closely related to a sea urchin than those groups are.
    • Re: Phenomenons? (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      You're complaining about "phenomenons", but have no problem with "A swarm of meteors heading towards Earth"? A "meteor" occurs when an object hits the Earth's atmosphere. It is not the object itself.

      • by Anonymous Coward

        > A "meteor" occurs when an object hits the Earth's atmosphere. It is not the object itself.

        Are you saying they don't meet those criterions?

    • The evidence points to an asteroid fragment rather than one from a comet as the bolide in the Tunguska Event.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      A large part of what has driven speculation about a comet or a whole host of non-asteroid explanations is the absence of a crater. More recent analysis suggests that a meteor entering the atmosphere with the right mass, speed and composition can result in an airburst.

      The recent Chelyabinsk Event appears to be a smaller-scale version of Tunguska, and it explode

    • Re:Phenomenons? (Score:4, Interesting)

      by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @08:44AM (#58760538) Journal

      That said, I'm slightly disappointed that TFA didn't mention the Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis [wikipedia.org] which some say may also be associated with the Taurid meteor stream.

      Apologies, I digress, this comment is actually why I'm here. We keep going through the Taurids twice a year, you can only beat the odds so many times and it seems crazy that we keep ignoring this.

      We have the technology now to watch and maybe even deflect these objects. The question I often find my self asking is "Why aren't we already doing this" and I can't say I've found an answer. The thing is, if we're alone in the universe as intelligent beings we have the responsibility, over our petty tribalism, to safe guard sentience in the form of Homo Sapiens. Surely it is in the interest of the international community to collaborate on protecting the Human Race from a potential reset of our civilization? Then again no one is going to be around to file a lawsuit.

      It's fair to say we've made mistakes and created a host of problems. However what we've built, despite its flaws, is magnificent. We have a toehold on eternity as a race however if we don't safeguard (spaceguard?) our existence then how will we ever realize our true potential?

      • What constitutes going "through"? The article says we'll be 30 million km from the center of the stream this time around, and apparently that's closer than usual. If that's correct, it's nearly as far away as Venus at the closest (38 million km, https://www.universetoday.com/... [universetoday.com]). I realize the stream is spread out, but it sounds like we'll be a long ways from the stream's center.

        • by MrKaos ( 858439 )

          What constitutes going "through"? The article says we'll be 30 million km from the center it sounds like we'll be a long ways from the stream's center.

          30 million kms isn't very far in space. The very fact that we encounter objects from it means it is uncomfortably close.

      • "The Taurid swarm is a dense cluster of meteors within the Taurid meteor stream"

        There is differentiation between the whole stream, which we catch twice a year apparently, and a specific cluster within it. The article mentions this is the closest to the *swarm* that we have been since 1975, so 44 years ago. The university release doesn't appear to mention how close the swarm was for Tunguska, or how often we are this close.

    • I hate to be a grammar nazi, but ...

      Has that phrase ever not immediately been followed by an example of grammar nazism?

      • "I hate to be" rather presupposes that it will be followed by such an example. If they'd said, "I'm not a grammar nazi, but", or a counter-factual like "I wouldn't want to be taken for a grammar nazi, but..", then your comment might fit better.

        And no, I don't want you to think I'm a grammar nazi, but next time...

  • by qubezz ( 520511 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @03:44AM (#58759880)
    This is like the "code red" alert that Sinclair Media mandated meteorologists use, and got one weatherman fired when he spoke out about it on air. A complete non-story turned into bait.
  • by Tomahawk ( 1343 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @04:49AM (#58759950) Homepage

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    Southern Taurids (STA)
    Occurs during Sep 10 – Nov 20
    Date of peak Oct 10
    Velocity 28 km/s

    Northern Taurids (NTA)
    Occurs during Oct 20 – Dec 10
    Date of peak Nov 12
    Velocity 66.9 km/s

    There are about 5 per hour for both the Northern and Southern Taurids.

    So the phrase "heading into" is a tad bit early as we are still 3 months away.

    • This is a different context - the Tunguska event was on June 30th, 1908.

      The event that ended the previous period of human civilization (e.g. the people who built Gobekli Teki) 12,800 years ago was a Taurid object.

      The impactor that ended the dinosaurs probably was too.

      There are objects the size of a small moon in Earth's orbit, offset by a phase, that we're going to have to clean up if our descendants are going to continue to collect cat memes instead of fighting off the next version of sabertooth tigers.

      htt [youtu.be]

    • I think they are referring to the daylight Beta Taurids, also part of the same stream.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
      The nearest pass is supposed to occur around June 23 – July 17.
      The Tunguska event occurred on June 30th, also from the same direction of the sky.
  • by skullandbones99 ( 3478115 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @04:49AM (#58759952)

    Seems someone is unclear what a meteor is when they say "A swarm of meteors heading towards Earth".

    By definition a meteor is "a small body of matter from outer space that enters the earth's atmosphere, becoming incandescent as a result of friction and appearing as a streak of light."

    So being pedantic, a meteor only exists within the Earth's atmosphere; a meteor is not in space (in space this object is usually called an asteroid) and a meteor never impacts the Earh's surface (any impacted material from the meteor is called a meteorite).

    Also the Tunguska Event was an air-burst where the meteor exploded close to the Earth's surface; there was no impact to the Earth's surface. The forest was destroyed by the strong winds resulting from the explosion just like the winds from a Nuclear weapon detonated close to the Earth's surface.

    • You are not wrong, but really, it is just rocks moving about with different terms based on if they are not in the atmosphere "asteroid", if they are in the atmosphere and still moving "meteor", and if they are sitting on the ground "meteorite".... but they are all just rocks.

      This whole discussion could be avoided just by using the term 'rock'.

      • Um, you guys both need to turn in your geek cards. "A meteor [wikipedia.org], known colloquially as a shooting star or falling star, is the visible passage of a glowing meteoroid, micrometeoroid, comet or asteroid through Earth's atmosphere." The meteor is not the rock, it is the streak of light. If the streak of light were caused by a falling man-made satellite it would still be called a meteor. The best analogy I can come up with is that this would be like calling lightning thunder. "Meteor" is not a huge stretch fo
  • This Summer as in a week? Two weeks? We don't know weeks?
  • by Zorpheus ( 857617 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @07:27AM (#58760212)
    It is always cringy when even generally not so dumb people har about a 1 in 1000 year event, and think that it happens in a regular interval of 1000 years. Is this article another case of that lack of understanding of statistics?
    A 1 in 1000 years event has a 10% chance to happen within the next hundred years, a 1% chance in 10 years and a 0.1% chance in one year. Doesn't matter when it happened last time.
  • At least 1 of the larger rocks in that crowd is no longer around to cause us problems

  • by bonedonut ( 4687707 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @08:17AM (#58760406)
    Seriously, we pass through the taurids every year. Now we are supposed to be afraid of it? Are they going to start reporting other annual meteor showers the same way?
  • Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday June 14, 2019 @08:47AM (#58760566)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • another such phenomenon could occur much sooner than its 1,000-year expectancy

    That's not how this works. And shit like this is one of the most annoying things in science reporting. A "x year event" does not mean one happens X years. Nor does it mean an even can be "early" or "overdue". Its statistical analysis showing the probability of an event occurring every year given the known data. The likelihood of such an event happening tomorrow does not increase because it didn't happen today.

  • Earth periodically passes through the Taurid swarm, and it is one of the three space phenomenons that could result in a catastrophic collision.

    Am I the only one who thinks it's weird to specifically say that something is one of three without even acknowledging what the other two are?

    • Earth periodically passes through the Taurid swarm, and it is one of the three space phenomenons that could result in a catastrophic collision.

      Am I the only one who thinks it's weird to specifically say that something is one of three without even acknowledging what the other two are?

      I am going to go out on a limb and say no, you aren't the only one.

      However, I present here from the summary the next sentence after the one that you quoted:

      Near Earth Objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and meteoroids, as well as comets are the other two potential causes.

  • Abstract :

    In June 2019 the Earth will approach within 5Â mean anomaly of the centre of the Taurid resonant swarm, its closest post-perihelion encounter with Earth since 1975. This will be the best viewing geometry to detect and place limits on the number of NEOs proposed to reside at the swarm centre until the early 2030s. We present an analysis of the optimal times and pointing locations to image NEOs associated with the swarm

    Oh, that's a bit different to the press release.

    The paper is here [arxiv.org].

    At lea

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