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Earth United States Science

Natural Gas is Now Getting in the Way; US Carbon Emissions Increase by 3.4% (arstechnica.com) 300

AmiMoJo shares a report: "The US was already off track in meeting its Paris Agreement targets. The gap is even wider headed into 2019." That's the dire news from Rhodium Group, a research firm that released preliminary estimates of US carbon emissions in 2018. Though the Trump administration said it would exit the Paris Agreement in 2017, the US is still bound by the agreement to submit progress reports until 2020. But the administration has justified regulatory rollbacks since then, claiming that regulation from the US government is unnecessary because emissions were trending downward anyway. But it appears that emissions have increased 3.4 percent in 2018 across the US economy, the second-largest annual increase in 20 years, according to Rhodium Group's preliminary data. (2010, when the US started recovering from the recession, was the largest annual increase in the last two decades.)

This reversal of course -- the first increase in emissions in three years -- came from a few sources. Carbon emissions from the US electricity sector increased by 1.9 percent, largely because the installation of new natural gas plants has outpaced coal retirements. Cheap natural gas has been credited with killing coal, which is a dirtier fossil fuel in terms of emissions. But natural gas is a fossil fuel, too, and burning more natural gas than is needed to simply replace coal will result in more carbon emissions. But electricity wasn't the main culprit. Transportation was.

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Natural Gas is Now Getting in the Way; US Carbon Emissions Increase by 3.4%

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  • by xxxJonBoyxxx ( 565205 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:05AM (#57930554)
    Last time I checked, we're done with the Paris agreement in 2020 (specifically on Nov 4). By trying to slip it through as an executive thing (to skip Senate ratification as a binding approval), Obama allowed the next President (Trump) to kill it, and kill it he did.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Paris_Agreement
  • Even though emissions from passenger cars was down, emissions from planes and trucks are up. Hopefully the Tesla push to electrify trucking will come into reality on the market soon.
    • by sfcat ( 872532 )

      Even though emissions from passenger cars was down, emissions from planes and trucks are up. Hopefully the Tesla push to electrify trucking will come into reality on the market soon.

      Did someone hijack your account? You are one of the biggest Elon-haters I've ever seen and now you are depending on him? Maybe I just had a stroke...

      Anyway, the solution for bulk transportation isn't electrics. EVs are great for personal transport and trucking. But fuel is just too energy dense for batteries to make a dent in things like shipping and air transport. Diesel-Electric Trains are one of the most efficient ways to move things across land but they are still getting all their energy from fossi

  • Well as long as we are pointing fingers lets make sure that we have plenty to point at. In 2018 China was up 4.7% and India by 6.3%. An according to this report, the US is only up by 2.5%. Interesting, both are well below even the 3.5% mark of the article. But yet, we leave those out and just post a US bashing article. The EU is doing good.

    https://www.theguardian.com/en... [theguardian.com]

    • Re:China and India (Score:5, Insightful)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:32AM (#57930750) Homepage Journal

      Before pointing your finger in an accusatory manner, perhaps you should consider what their targets are first.

      China and India are still on the up side of the curve, no one expects them to be decreasing yet. They expect them to be slowing the rate of increase, which they are.

      Remember all that whining about how emissions targets would force the US back to pre-industrial levels of civilization? That's the reason why China and India aren't expected to immediately halt their increasing output.

      And despite all that they are still at just a fraction of the per capita emissions of the US anyway, around half.

      • Re: (Score:3, Flamebait)

        by jwhyche ( 6192 )

        No, lets just be honest. You posted this article because it bashed America. That is the real reason why you did it. You never even thought of China or India, or actually anyone else. You saw that it bashed American and you went with it. That is the reason, nothing more, and nothing less.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          I don't hate America. In fact, I want to see America do well because that is in everyone's interests.

          Ironically, I am often accused of loving Obama, so if anything I'd expect to be accused of hating Trump, not America. For the record I'm not hugely fond of either of them.

          If I seem to be defending your new arch enemy, China, it's only because in this case it's a gross misrepresentation of what is happening. Just as you wouldn't expect the US to stop on a dime and massively decrease emissions, you wouldn't ex

          • by jwhyche ( 6192 )

            Also, I note that you don't actually have a counter-argument to my points, just a concession.

            Actually, I did post a link to a article showing that it was 2.5% and not 3.5% so I think I did a good job there. But then again my point was not to counter-argument you. My point is simply to call you on your anti-American bullshit. Which I think I did a excellent job of.

    • Well as long as we are pointing fingers

      Or you know, how about we just don't point fingers and do something? You know, I've got an uncle who's got stage three colon cancer, I could sit here all day and say, "Welp, you spent the last 35 years of your life 100 pounds overweight. What did you think was going to happen?!" Or ya know, I could help out with taking him to chemo. Why is everyone so knotted up with playing blame games? It's what five-year olds do. Adults just get to work fixing shit.

      • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

        by jwhyche ( 6192 )

        This has been my position since day one. We are all in this together. But Amjo and the rest of the EU snobbery keep the "blame America" for all the worlds problems alive an running. Constantly the same thing over and over not looking at China, India or even Africa as a source of carbon emissions. Fact is America is doing damn good right now at reducing our emissions. I'm sorry that its not up to EU standards but we refuse to sacrifice our economy to make you happy. We refuse to transfer billions of do

        • Not to detract from your point, but I'd just note that the blame coming from other countries seems to pale in comparison to our own self-loathing here in the U.S. Many of us feel guilty, at least subconsciously, about what we have and we want to give it away, or pay some penance. This is probably a natural behavior for people who have the luxury of being able to think more globally, and the idea seems to spread like fashion to others who themselves can barely afford it.

          Position clarification: My personal p

        • keep the "blame America" for all the worlds problems alive an running.

          Well you're the world police, the greatest country ever, and the most powerful country which can do what you please with all your military might. So maybe it's time you actually took responsibility for the world since you constantly claim to.

  • Cheap natural gas has been credited with killing coal, which is a dirtier fossil fuel in terms of emissions. But natural gas is a fossil fuel, too, and burning more natural gas than is needed to simply replace coal will result in more carbon emissions.

    What stupidity. Nobody is burning more natural gas than is needed and nobody is running coal plants just for fun. If those gas plants are coming online / being utilized to a larger part of capacity and the coal plants are not being idled or shuttered its because consumers want the power! Its not like we are generating electrical potential just ground it out because we think arc-flash is cool!

    The issue is the economy grew so despite efficiency improvements emissions grew.

    • These people can't even do multiplication and they're running the world's governments.

      I usually recommend this physicist, who has popularized multiplication in the context of energy usage:

      https://youtu.be/E0W1ZZYIV8o [youtu.be]

      So far none of the econuts I talk to are willing to take cold showers - they'd be safe to ignore if they didn't control the AR-15's of federal agencies' SWAT teams.

  • by SlaveToTheGrind ( 546262 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:26AM (#57930700)

    Talk about burying the lede:

    While we don’t expect a repeat of 2018 this coming year , the data provides some important insights into the emission reduction challenges facing the US.

    The reasons they don't expect a repeat are sprinkled through the article, e.g.:

    1. The winter was extremely cold. People used more energy staying warm.
    2. The economy was roaring. People traveled more. More goods were shipped. More buildings were built.

    On top of this, and somewhat amazingly for what purports to be an independent research group, they chose to put a negative spin on the fact that, as they put it, "a record number of coal-fired power plants were retired last year" and replaced with natural gas (which our friend AmiMoJo then further spun into the sensationalist title of this article).

    At bottom, this is just more of the unfortunate stream of SlashClickbait that is gradually swamping what used to be a useful tech blog.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @11:09AM (#57931118) Homepage Journal

      Hey, no need to make false accusations. Here is my original submission: https://slashdot.org/firehose.... [slashdot.org]

      Note that the headline is different and doesn't mention gas.

      It's literally one click on my username to see my submissions. Why didn't you check? Be honest, were you triggered by seeing my name and just assumed?

      The headline the editor used is from the Ars Technica article. Although 2018 was somewhat exceptional, it wasn't so exceptional that if nothing changes 2019 will see a reduction. And also I'm kinda fed up certain people using a much, much smaller increase in the EU as an excuse or the basis of a bogus claim that no-one else is making any effort.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Troll, eh? Come forward cowardly moderator, make your case.

      • Nice try splitting hairs. Your submission included a link to a sensationalist article about the original report, which you yourself admit included the inflammatory headline. If you disagreed with it, you would have mentioned that in your submission, linked to a different article, or even just linked to the report itself.

        But I'm sure you actually had something meaningful to say about the substance of my post and weren't just picking around the edges, right?

        Although 2018 was somewhat exceptional, it wasn't so exceptional that if nothing changes 2019 will see a reduction.

        Oh, I guess not.

        And also I'm kinda fed up certain people using a much, much smaller increase in the EU as an excuse or the basis of a bogus claim that no-one else is making any effort.

        Yes, your anti-American perspectiv

  • I have not bothered with my local greens but where i came form (Some tiny country in Yurop) the greens were in love with natural gas. Funny. It probably has to do with combined cycle plants fast enough to be paired with intermittent energy sources that cannot be dispatched. Like the wind turbines they are fond of.

  • by magzteel ( 5013587 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:30AM (#57930740)

    The report itself is a good detailed estimate of emissions from various sectors along with analysis and projections. Last year's estimate was pretty accurate so this probably is as well. But nowhere do they use the words "Dire news". That's the spin from Ars Technica.

    • This is dire news. America went up 3.4%. Not good. What is not said is that China's increase will go up 4.7-7.0 %, and India is above that.
      Thankfully, India and Americas will be pretty low, but China's is going to be massive increase. With America's 3.4% increase on 15%, it will mean that America will add some .5% to global emissions. Worst of all, CHina emits double what America does, so that 4.7-7.0 increase will add 1.5-2.3% to Global CO2 emissions.

      BTW, India's emissions are so low, that their ~10
  • by Thelasko ( 1196535 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:33AM (#57930770) Journal
    Natural gas produces 50-60% less CO2 than a coal plant for the same amount of energy. That means a lot of new capacity has been added to the grid.
    • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:55AM (#57930988) Journal
      Utilities are trying to get ready for EVs, as well as deal with the CO2. Problem is, they might pull out a 120 MW coal plant and put in a 500 MW nat gas. Considering that nat gas emits less than 1/2 of the CO2 of coal (per BTU) means that you can double, even come close to 3x increase and still emit less. But this is 4x up. Way too much.

      We need to replace those old coal plants with nuclear power.
      • . Problem is, they might pull out a 120 MW coal plant and put in a 500 MW nat gas. Considering that nat gas emits less than 1/2 of the CO2 of coal (per BTU) means that you can double, even come close to 3x increase and still emit less. But this is 4x up. Way too much.

        That's not the way plants work. It's not like they're burning 0 MW or "max capacity" MW. You could put in a 500 MW plant and have it burn 120 MW of energy. If they put in a plant that size and it was run anywere near capacity on its usage,

  • by T.E.D. ( 34228 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:35AM (#57930798)

    The post (suspiciously) left out the most important explanatory part of TFA:

    "The transportation sector held its title as the largest source of US emissions for the third year running, as robust growth in demand for diesel and jet fuel offset a modest decline in gasoline consumption," Rhodium wrote. Industrial emissions from various types of manufacturing as well as emissions from buildings both saw significant increases in their carbon emissions in 2018.

    ...

    In 2018, gasoline demand decreased by just 0.1 percent. But growth in the US trucking industry increased diesel demand by 3.1 percent, and demand for air travel increased jet fuel demand by 3 percent.

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      But growth in the US trucking industry increased diesel demand by 3.1 percent, and demand for air travel increased jet fuel demand by 3 percent.

      And that's not natural gas (aside from a tiny part of local trucking biz).

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Would be great if someone could figure out how to make long distance trains more economically effective, especially for freight.

      For passengers any flight that is about 2 hours or less is probably faster by train, once you factor in getting to the airport, going through security, boarding, and then getting to your destination from the other airport. But you need a network of very high speed trains.

      • The US has the largest rail network in the world BY FAR [wikipedia.org] (i.e. you'd need to add the rail networks of the next 17 countries together to get just half of what the US has), the vast majority of which is devoted to freight transportation. It's already incredibly economical, but people expect fast delivery (which generally isn't feasible via rail) and you still need a way to get from railway stops out to homes, so there's a need for a lot of trucks and planes.

  • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:52AM (#57930960) Journal
    It is one thing to replace an old efficient coal plant with either new coal or a new nat gas, but it does no good when the size of these increase to the point where you are adding more CO2.
    All nations have to stop this. Here in America, we need to push Nuclear SMRs into production SOON. NuScale is a perfect example. It will not be in production until 2025/6 timeframe. With some money (for both the company and NRC), it can be put into production by 2023. That would enable us to replace a number of these coal plants with cheaper/safer nuclear SMRS. Add in more solar/wind and geo-thermal, and we can shut this down.

    The one good thing missing out of this report is that over the next couple of years, America will continue downwards due to EVs replacing old cars, along with the fact that our electricity is fairly clean.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by iggymanz ( 596061 )

      lolz, we're not going to go nuclear, get it out of your head. spouting idealistic nonsense that won't cut it in the real world is waste of time.

      Replacing coal with natgas does reduce emissions.

      Agressive pursuit of totally non-polluting alternatives will take decades to implement, that's reality.

      • by sfcat ( 872532 )

        lolz, we're not going to go nuclear, get it out of your head. spouting idealistic nonsense that won't cut it in the real world is waste of time.

        Replacing coal with natgas does reduce emissions.

        Agressive pursuit of totally non-polluting alternatives will take decades to implement, that's reality.

        Replacing anything with solar or wind increases natural gas and thus CO2. That's the point of this article. And the CO2 trends we are seeing around the world over the last several years show this same result over and over again. Madness is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. That's exactly what you are doing right now. People tend to do the right thing after trying everything else.

  • Story isn't about methane. It's about diesel (vehicles) and kerosene (jet fuel). Basically people fly more and there are more products that need to be driven to the stores for people to buy. Not to even mention the whole amazon deliveries aspect. Basically rapid growth of economy leads to more flying to vacations by the wealthy city folks and more driving to get consumer products.

    The reason why there's an attempt to spin this as "it's the methane" is because of increasing desperation in the green lobby with

  • by Rick Schumann ( 4662797 ) on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:46PM (#57931764) Journal
    Come on, America, it's time to be the adults, look under our own beds, and assure ourselves that the Nuclear Boogeyman is just our imagination.
    We need nuclear power. Safe nuclear power isn't 'theoretical', it's a reality; there are safer reactor designs on the drawing board right now, but since everyone seems to lose their bladder containment whenever the subject comes up, no money gets allocated into developing them.
    Of course none of this can even begin to happen until 2020; we need to get the current bozo out of office, because his geriatric obsession with dragging us back to the 1940's, trying to resurrect the coal industry, prevents any progress in nuclear power from happening. Hell, I wouldn't put it past the guy to 'executive order' all information to-date on reactor design be destroyed, just to ensure that ass-backwards coal mining is brought back from the dead.
    Once we get past that hurdle and back into a sane energy policy, new reactor designs can be developed and implemented. That'll take at least 10 years though.
    Meanwhile continuing development and deployment of solar and wind power, in conjuction with large-scale energy storage strategies, should tide us over, and as capacity in these technologies increases, old-fashioned outdated filthy fossil-fuel-based power plants can be shuttered. Tear them down and build solar farms, so we can reuse the grid connections to them.
    In order to facilitate faster adoption of plug-in electric vehicles, there should be new government programs to promote them. Rebates, credits for decomissioning ICE vehicles, grants to municipalities to fund change-over from diesel buses to electrics, ad campaigns promoting electrics. Get as many people as possible off ICE-based transportation and into electrics.
    Meanwhile continue funding development of practical fusion technology, to eventually replace fission technology.
    Also, for all we know, if we, as a species, manage to survive another hundred years or so, we might even have antimatter reactor technology (or something more exotic than that, even), and never have to worry about energy ever again.

    The takeaway here is that we have to stop dwelling on the past and move forward, stop being scared little rabbits, use what we've got that's better than what we've been using, and stop sabotaging ourselves.
  • Eliminate all depreciation, deductions, exclusions, and grandfathering of all fossil fuels, from extraction to use, and add all cleanup as a cost.

    It's called a market - you have to capture both Goods and Bads to actually have a working Capitalist economy. Letting people pollute for free has costs, specifically in dead kids.

    There. Fixed.

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