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Science

Rising Seas Give Island Nation a Stark Choice: Relocate or Elevate (nationalgeographic.com) 243

Posted by msmash from the moment-of-reckoning dept.
Climate change means the low-lying Marshall Islands must consider drastic measures, including building new artificial islands. National Geographic: The navigational prowess of Marshall Islanders is legendary. For thousands of years, Marshallese have embraced their watery environment, building a culture on more than 1,200 islands scattered across 750,000 square miles of ocean. But powerful tropical cyclones, damaged reefs and fisheries, worsening droughts, and sea-level rise threaten the coral reef atolls of this large ocean state, forcing the Marshallese to navigate a new reality.

In a moment of reckoning, Marshall Islanders face a stark choice: relocate or elevate. One idea being considered is the construction of a new island or raising an existing one. With 600 billion tons of melting ice flowing into oceans that are absorbing heat twice as fast as 18 years ago, the Marshallese will need to move fast. A report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October highlighted different projected outcomes from a temperature rise of 1.5C versus 2C.

In the report, small-island developing states are identified as being at disproportionately higher risk of adverse consequences of global warming. Among them, four atoll nations: Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Maldives, and the Marshall Islands, are at greatest risk. [...] In July, speaking at a climate change conference on Majuro, capital of the Marshall Islands, University of Hawaii climate scientist Chip Fletcher discussed possible adaptation measures. When Fletcher presented a map depicting Majuro flooded under three feet of water, there was an audible gasp in the room. For climate activists in the Pacific, "1.5 to stay alive," has been the mantra of survival. "We're going to miss 1.5C," Fletcher told his audience, but added, "there's something we can do about it."
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Rising Seas Give Island Nation a Stark Choice: Relocate or Elevate More

Rising Seas Give Island Nation a Stark Choice: Relocate or Elevate

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  • I am pretty sure this was decided a long time ago - I read tons of articles about it

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
      No the sea level is going to rise. Any minute now. Any. Minute. Look look! Here it comes. Oh wait, no. But still, any minute...

  • Theory vs. data (Score:4, Informative)

    by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Friday November 23, 2018 @06:45PM (#57690642) Journal
    Data shows that coral-based islands (like the Marshalls) are growing. Eighty percent are either stable or growing [nationalgeographic.com]. Tuvalu has added 3% more land in the last 50 years [phys.org], and the Maldives, which famously held a cabinet meeting underwater to show their nation is doomed [nbcnews.com] has no change in land area over the last 60 years [tradingeconomics.com].

    • Re:Theory vs. data (Score:5, Informative)

      by swillden ( 191260 ) <shawn-ds@willden.org> on Friday November 23, 2018 @10:34PM (#57691280) Journal

      Data shows that coral-based islands (like the Marshalls) are growing. Eighty percent are either stable or growing [nationalgeographic.com]. Tuvalu has added 3% more land in the last 50 years [phys.org], and the Maldives, which famously held a cabinet meeting underwater to show their nation is doomed [nbcnews.com] has no change in land area over the last 60 years [tradingeconomics.com].

      Coral atolls grow higher when sea levels rise. The question is one of rates. As long as the sea level rises are slow enough, the atolls will be more or less fine. But if the water rises faster than the corals can grow, they'll be inundated. Massive corals of the sort that make up these atoll reefs can grow up to 5mm per year. Over the 20th century the average annual sea level increase was 1.7mm. No problem, they can keep up with that. Since the 90s the rate has averaged 3.2mm per year. The corals can handle that, too... but the rate doesn't have to accelerate much more to overwhelm them.

      Indeed, even at current rates, islands are having problems. I was on Rarotonga last month, in the Cook Islands. Natives there told me that their lagoons used to be two to three times deeper than they are now. The problem is that seas are crashing higher over the reefs and depositing more sand, causing the lagoons to fill in. This has created problems for fishing and for the tourist industry (snorkeling in a foot of water isn't much fun). However, it's expected that over the next 20 years the waves will rise higher yet and begin removing sand from the lagoons and the beaches, reversing the shallowing trend and then beginning to eat away at the island. Rarotonga will be fine; it's volcanic and rises over 2000 feet above sea level at its highest point. At worst people will have to move inland a little bit. But it could easily devastate the already-fragile island economy.

      I was also on Mangaia and they're facing a different problem. Much of the island's fresh water supply comes from inland lakes which flow through tunnels in the makatea (fossil coral) to the ocean. But sea levels have risen enough that during storms water now flows in through the tunnels, turning the lakes brackish. This is having serious effects on the island ecosystems as well as making fresh water harder to come by.

      The bottom line is that for many islanders, climate change is already having very real and very visible effects, mostly due to rising sea levels. And it's going to get much worse. And many low-lying coral atolls may just disappear when the rate of sea level rise exceeds the rate at which the corals can grow.

      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by Jane Q. Public ( 1010737 )
        Sea level rise has NOT accelerated, and the report that found oceans were absorbing more heat than previously thought was found to have fundamental -- it is not unfair to say fatal -- mathematical flaws.

        The truth is that the data does not support that conclusion. At all.

        And while fresh water on many smaller islands has always been an issue, it is not one that can be attributed to AGW-caused "climate change".

      • The freshwater problems of these islands is not due to climate. It is almost always a case of local overuse. When the islanders pump to much fresh water out of the island, salt water impinges. Overuse of freshwater can also cause land subsidence.

        • The freshwater problems of these islands is not due to climate. It is almost always a case of local overuse. When the islanders pump to much fresh water out of the island, salt water impinges. Overuse of freshwater can also cause land subsidence.

          Nope, not in this case. The island's population and water use has fallen dramatically over the last 20 years. This is because of climate. Specifically, sea level.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
            No this is because it's a shithole and no one wants to live there.

            • No this is because it's a shithole and no one wants to live there.

              That's an odd comment. Are you always an asshole, or only on slashdot?

              • Re: (Score:2)

                by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
                Shove your political correctness up your ass, The Marshalls are the middle of nowhere and the last great thing to happen to them was copra. Guess what? No one is buying coconuts anymore. I'm pretty sure anyone who can get the hell out leaves as fast and as soon as they can.

    • Re:Theory vs. data (Score:4, Insightful)

      by angel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) <angelo.schneider ... e ['oom' in gap]> on Friday November 23, 2018 @11:59PM (#57691470) Journal

      has no change in land area over the last 60 years [tradingeconomics.com].
      Obviously. Do you actually know how much the sea water was rising during the last 60 years?
      So how the fuck should they have a noticeable as in measurable change in land area?

      Data shows that coral-based islands (like the Marshalls) are growing. Eighty percent are either stable or growing.
      Yes, the islands that have 10m in diameter are growing to 11m ... perfect for an area that has 1200 islands and only a few handful of actually inhabitated islands.

      And the thing you forget the most: the problem is not area, it is hight. While corrals grow in some areas, they die in others due to many factors, one is heat. We don't know yet if your cherry picked islands will have corrals that will survive. So while an island might get area, its hight does not change. So no idea about what bullshit you are nitpicking.

      • You have presented zero evidence to the contrary of my claims. Most atolls are either stable or growing. When data and theory collide, data should win - unless you treat your theory as a religion...

        • Re:Theory vs. data (Score:4, Informative)

          by Jane Q. Public ( 1010737 ) on Saturday November 24, 2018 @03:14AM (#57691804)
          A relatively steady 2-3mm or less per year (in most parts of the world) would be max 180mm, or 18cm over 60 years.

          Most people, at most beaches, would not even notice this difference over that great a time period. In fact it is indistinguishable in comparison photographs even on certain Florida beaches which are well-known to be subsiding in addition to any ocean rise.

          Just FYI, I have noticed over a period of years that this "Angel" person has often been an opinionated, agressive, and mean-spirited arguer. My best suggestion is that he/she is probably not worth your time.

          • Just FYI, I have noticed over a period of years that this "Angel" person has often been an opinionated, agressive, and mean-spirited arguer. My best suggestion is that he/she is probably not worth your time.
            Nevertheless you support my point, thank you :P

        • You have presented zero evidence to the contrary of my claims.
          You need evidence for common sense? Wow ...

          https://ocean.si.edu/ecosystem... [si.edu]
          https://www.leisurepro.com/blo... [leisurepro.com]

  • I was under the impression that atolls naturally collapse back into the sea over a period of several hundreds of years.

    Ocean level changes not with standing, isn't this part of the natural collapse of land back into the ocean?

  • They need to start their undersea lifestyle sooner than later.
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • Just redefine sea level to be lower, that's all! Worked for Colonel Stuart.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Funnily Swiss naval maps use 1m lower (or was it higher? I forgot) as "agreed zero" for water depths than the rest of Europe. Which is a pain in the ass for Swiss who have to navigate in tidal water. No one knows why they did that. Obviously swiss people mostly use local maps anyway so thy don't have that problem ... so much to "defining water depths/height".

  • Simple solution (Score:4, Funny)

    by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Friday November 23, 2018 @08:05PM (#57690898) Journal

    Sell them to climate change deniers. By their logic, it should be a nice deal.

  • Floating islands (Score:2, Interesting)

    by sl149q ( 1537343 )

    This is an old post describing how coral atolls float and effectively keep pace with the rise and fall of sea level.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/20... [wattsupwiththat.com]

    And there have been numerous recent reports showing that island (e.g. Tuvalu) is indeed growing.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/20... [wattsupwiththat.com]

    From Nature communications:
    Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

    Paul S. Kench, Murray R. Ford & Susan D. Owen

    Abstract
    Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existen

    • Re:Floating islands (Score:5, Informative)

      by thogard ( 43403 ) on Friday November 23, 2018 @08:44PM (#57691012) Homepage

      Sand based atolls are effectively floating on slightly more sense layers and most of them are in areas where that other layer is flat. The atolls dissolve on one side and get built up on the other by a mix of consistent ocean currents and prevailing winds. That causes the islands to creep along keeping their basic shape until they hit depression or hill on the lower layer. Depressions tends to destroy the atoll and the hills tend to split the atolls in two.

      These sinking islands are going to sink weather global warming is true or false but global warming always gets drug into conversation about them which sidelines the discussion.

  • Everything is either or with you guys. So what if it's bleedin' damp.

  • Why the hell (Score:2, Interesting)

    by OYAHHH ( 322809 )

    Are seemingly half the articles on /. about "global warming" today?

  • When it comes to an island mindset, nobody beats them...

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