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Stephen Hawking Warns That AI and 'Superhumans' Could Wipe Humanity; Says There's No God in Posthumous Book (cnn.com) 733

Stephen Hawking says artificial intelligence will eventually become so advanced it will "outperform humans." The renowned physicist who died in March warns of both rises in advanced artificial intelligence and genetically-enhanced "superhumans" in a book published Tuesday. Hawking also weighed in on god, and aliens. From a report: According to an excerpt of the book "Brief Answers to the Big Questions" published by the U.K.'s Sunday Times, Hawking wrote AI could prove "huge" to humanity so long as restrictions are in place to control how quickly it grows. "While primitive forms of artificial intelligence developed so far have proved very useful, I fear the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans," Hawking wrote. "Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete and would be superseded." Hawking wrote about a need for serious research to explore what impact AI would have on humanity, from the workplace to the military, where he expressed concerns about sophisticated weapons systems "that can choose and eliminate their own targets." Hawking also wrote about advances to manipulating DNA, or what he calls "self-designed evolution. Early advances involving the gene-editing tool CRISPR include alerting DNA to create "low-fat" pigs. CNN: "There is no God. No one directs the universe," he writes in "Brief Answers to the Big Questions." "For centuries, it was believed that disabled people like me were living under a curse that was inflicted by God," he adds. "I prefer to think that everything can be explained another way, by the laws of nature."

"There are forms of intelligent life out there," he writes. "We need to be wary of answering back until we have developed a bit further." And he leaves open the possibility of other phenomena. "Travel back in time can't be ruled out according to our present understanding," he says. He also predicts that "within the next hundred years we will be able to travel to anywhere in the Solar System."

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Stephen Hawking Warns That AI and 'Superhumans' Could Wipe Humanity; Says There's No God in Posthumous Book

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  • by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:28PM (#57486846)

    The Terminators will take out the leftover super mutants (if they survive the nukes)

  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:31PM (#57486872)
    The simple fact is we've made some crude machine learning algorithms that can be trained but this is not true intelligence, that can make intuitive leaps and predictions about things it has never experienced based on first principles. We are nowhere near being able to create something like that. We may never be able to do that.
    • The simple fact is we've made some crude machine learning algorithms that can be trained but this is not true intelligence, that can make intuitive leaps and predictions about things it has never experienced based on first principles.

      Humans aren't always very good at those things, either.

      In order to be useful, an artificial intelligence doesn't have to be as intelligent as an intelligent person, it just has to be as intelligent as an average (or even below average) person.

    • When people discuss "I have no fear of crude AI" - Send this obligatory XKCD reference [xkcd.com]
    • Is there a difference between a machine that can mimic intelligence so well that it's indistinguishable from real intelligence? Machine learning has proven it can discover solutions to problems that would have been hard to produce with a first principles approach. A common fallacy with AI is that true AI needn't necessarily be comparable to human intelligence, it will most probably be totally unlike human intelligence. And what do you define as intelligence anyway? A human's ? A dog's? A stick insect? B

  • by CaptainDork ( 3678879 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:35PM (#57486886)

    ... trained as a fundamentalist in AI.

    It's not his wheelhouse.

    I'm an atheist, too, but like Hawking, I don't have any science to support my faith-based world view.

    Stephen's thoughts on these matters are as useless as tits on a boar.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:39PM (#57486892) Journal

      Stephen's thoughts on these matters are as useless as tits on a boar.

      Don't knock them until you try them.

      - LonelySlashdotter

    • by lgw ( 121541 )

      Parent post is not flamebait by any stretch of the imagination. Looks like the mods got the bad crack again today.

      I'm interested in Hawking's views on the subject, as he's a generally smart guy, but he's in no way an expert on "AI". Well, unless of course it's been the chair talking to us for the past 10 years, and not Hawking - but you'd think we'd have figured that out when he died.

  • by xxxJonBoyxxx ( 565205 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:42PM (#57486898)
    It should be "said" or "wrote" not "says". The man's dead so we can safely assume past tense.
    • What do you mean? He published this posthumously. That's an amazing feat for someone who is dead, and if he can do that while dead, I don't see a reason to use past tense. Who knows what else he can do now that he's dead!

      Hawking is so smart that I, for one, am not going to underestimate him.

      • Tupac, is that you?
      • That's an amazing feat for someone who is dead, and if he can do that while dead, I don't see a reason to use past tense. Who knows what else he can do now that he's dead!

        Travel back in time can't be ruled out according to our present understanding.

        • That's actually one of the things he said in his book. I assume he came back from the future to write that to let us know.

    • Perhaps, just before he died, he loaded his vocoder up with about an hour's worth of speech, and it's still going. We could call that "pulling a Hari Seldon".

  • by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:47PM (#57486940) Homepage

    ...gene-editing technology will be used to correct genes leading to diseases like cystic fibrosis, but people won't resist using the technology to make them stronger or smarter. "Once such superhumans appear, there are going to be significant political problems with the unimproved humans, "

    True enough, and absolutely inevitable. First, you correct for genetic defects, then you choose features you want. Why wouldn't parents prefer a healthy, attractive, intelligent, athletic child over one lacking those attributes?

    We already have the societal problems. As the saying goes: "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." [goodreads.com] Even if we raise the averages, the problems remain essentially the same. What do we do now, with the ineducable and unskilled? We don't currently have any good solution...

    Meanwhile, imagine the potential* benefits to society, if we could increase average health, and raise the average intelligence by a standard deviation or two.

    *Potential. It is also entirely believable that the people who take most advantage of this will - intentionally or otherwise - select for sociopathy or other deleterious traits.

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @12:56PM (#57486986)
      Birth Control + Bread and Circuses and they stop breeding enough to sustain their population. This is what's happening in every first world country. Even the US with it's Evangelicals can't keep it's birthrate above 2.0. As for "below average", good enough is always good enough. You just need people smart enough that they don't fall for demagogues and mumbo-jumbo. That's not a very high bar, and we can do it now with some more education (yes, that means the liberal arts education that /.ers hate. If you're not smart enough for a STEM degree that's the next best way to tech critical thinking)

      When people have options they don't breed uncontrollably. We're not animals. We're people. In the future the problem is likely to be under population. That is, unless we let the Evangelicals take control. Then they'll ban birth control and sex ed based on a few well chosen passages in their holy books.

      What this all means is progressivism vs conservatism. e.g. we need to get folks to favor progress and improvement and stop looking back wistfully at the "good 'ole days". That does mean you're gonna have to take care of some folks who are now obsolete (like coal minors) and get over the fact that they get paid to do nothing because there's no useful work they can do anymore. Another thing folks hate because it pisses people off to have to get up to go to work when somebody else doesn't.
      • by atrex ( 4811433 )
        Part of the problem that lowers the birthrate is the high cost of having a child in an industrialized nation. Economically, in first world countries children are a liability, not an asset. And when you squeeze the middle class while slashing child care and assistance programs like we have in the US there's fewer and fewer families that can afford to raise children outside of abject poverty.
        • The children are an investment, but a risky one. Still, it's the only investment they've got. Education, stocks and IRAs aren't really options for a farmer in India's boondocks.

          None of the groups can really "afford" kids in the sense that they can be sure they can provide for them. But in 2nd and 3rd world countries they do it anyway as a roll of the dice. In a 1st world country you've got options, and that's the big difference.

          The takeaway is that when people have options they choose to have fewer
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        What this all means is progressivism vs conservatism. e.g. we need to get folks to favor progress and improvement and stop looking back wistfully at the "good 'ole days".

        Progressivism isn't synonymous with progress. Change without reason, without a guide, and without a provable end state can lead in any direction. Something being old does not mean it is bad.

        Followers of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and the Third Reich learned this lesson the hard way.

        We all know rsilver posts here every day as a form of grassroots political propaganda. Don't fall for it. Use your education. Use your reason. Don't give him points on political topics. Walk away.

    • Why wouldn't parents prefer a healthy, attractive, intelligent, athletic child over one lacking those attributes?

      I remember seeing a documentary about this ;-)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    • by Kjella ( 173770 )

      True enough, and absolutely inevitable. First, you correct for genetic defects, then you choose features you want. Why wouldn't parents prefer a healthy, attractive, intelligent, athletic child over one lacking those attributes?

      And when they don't live up to your design, if your trophy child turns out to be a lazy, obese slob who's neither athletic, healthy or particularly attractive with the snarky kind of wits? I'm absolutely for getting rid of genetic defects, we don't need them any more than we need smallpox but I don't think anything good will come from letting parents design babies like avatars in a game. Let the child be what it wants to be, not what you want it to be. I think it's starting off down the wrong path.

      What do we do now, with the ineducable and unskilled? We don't currently have any good solution...

      Not to be

  • Any good troll should include some strong opinion on God.

    Since we are on the subject and time travel why does everyone think of God as a Being at the beginning of creation instead of towards the end?

  • Um, not really (Score:5, Insightful)

    by rickb928 ( 945187 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @01:02PM (#57487014) Homepage Journal

    "For centuries, it was believed that disabled people like me were living under a curse that was inflicted by God,"

    From John 9:2:

    And his disciples asked him, “Rabbi, who sinned, this man or his parents, that he was born blind?”

    Jesus answered, “It was not that this man sinned, or his parents, but that the works of God might be displayed in him."

    And Stephen Hawking has surely increased our understanding of the Universe.

    I suppose it's all in how carefully you read the text, for many books, many authors, many stories are misunderstood.

    • is the main proponent of what Hawking was talking about. Jesus, for example, said that afflictions were caused not by diseases but by what they say [biblehub.com]. The implication that if you're suffering from a disease you must have blasphemed. There's lots of other examples if you research Prosperity Gospel [google.com]

      The trouble with the Christian Bible is that it was never meant to be read by laypersons. So it's chock full of inconsistencies [google.com]. You can find something in it to support literally any point of view. Want to be a go
      • by MobyDisk ( 75490 )

        said that afflictions were caused not by diseases but by what they say [biblehub.com]

        I see nothing in that quote referring to diseases. It is saying that we can see and hear horribly things and still be pure of heart. But if we speak evil, then we truly damage ourselves. Buddha said the same thing about how lying leads to self-affliction. [accesstoinsight.org]

  • I think we're seeing a powder keg of technology coming to maturity at the same time. We're seeing genetic augmentation, radical life expansion, cloning, and AI all swirling around us, ready to be available to make our lives better, and longer, and more productive. We're also seeing some new techniques in robotics and innovations in farming that asuage a lot of the concerns about overpopulation in a very practical way.

    What's concerning about all of it, is that there does seem to be a group of people out ther

  • Certainly no government on Earth would create Russian, Chinese or Iranian Supermen!

  • by Artem S. Tashkinov ( 764309 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @01:11PM (#57487068) Homepage

    Even though he's considered a renowned physicist I still wouldn't pay too much attention to his sentiments about AI. You know that's what science is: you don't opine about the things which are not even remotely related to your field of research unless you want to make a fool of yourself.

    Also, during the past years of his life he kept fear mongering about AI to the point where you just couldn't take any longer. We still know what intelligence is; we don't know how close we are to inventing artificial intelligence; and our intelligence algorithms easily trip over after being fed terabytes of data. One thing is certain: that's not how natural intelligence works.

    I'm a lot more interested in what Jeff Hawkins [nytimes.com] is about to reveal - and if it's not some bluff given that experts from DeepMind couldn't understand anything then we are on the verge of some significant breakthroughs.

  • by PhotoGuy ( 189467 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @01:15PM (#57487104) Homepage

    Interesting that, if I recall correctly, his "Brief History of Time" and other published works mentioned that it allowed for the possibility of a God.

    He leaves stating there's no God to be published post-humously.

    Hedging his bets? Or just avoiding controversy while alive?

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Today's humans evolved and replaced our ancestors. Why do we view evolved humans as a horror like "Children of the Dammed"? Perhaps it's because we treat perceived to be lesser humans so bad already and therefore fear that our betters will act as horrible as we do?

      AI. I am fine with it taking over. We can't manage ourselves or scale beyond tribalism.

      CRISPR is bad; that is true. not only are we hacking code in a system we barely grasp the system and the code we can't even properly test the results. It mak

    • Hedging his bets? Or just avoiding controversy while alive?

      Avoiding controversy is my bet.

      I must admit that I wonder what the science is behind the statement "there is no God". It's not like there's any way to prove it. It's always seemed to me that a hypothetical God (Creator Of All That Is sort of God, not one of those petty inlaws sorts of Gods like the ancient Greeks had) could, if he existed, make damn sure that there's no paper trail leading back to him (her? it?)....

  • It's common practice for acolytes with their own agenda to claim that the celebrant said something. How do we know for sure that Hawking wrote/thought this?

  • Superhumans will be hammy overactors with bad wigs.

  • by bill.pev ( 978836 ) on Tuesday October 16, 2018 @01:47PM (#57487418)
    Hawking gave the 1994 MacWorld Boston keynote from his chair. It lasted about an hour. The room had about 5000 people shuffling papers and coughing.. until about 30 min in, and then, for 30 min you could hear a pin drop. I have tried to get a copy (better still, a recording) of that address, even writing a few of his 6 assistants, Apple PR, and the organizers of MacWorld a bunch of different times. No joy.

    He compared the genome and the information in the genome to the global library of knowledge and then 30 min in said it was inevitable that 1. We will mess with the genome and create a super-race of humans that will make current humanity puny and incapable in comparison (while he sat motionless in his chair) and 2. artificial intelligence will hasten this outcome. He said these were not inevitable because of human frailty, but because that is the whole nature of adaptation and evolution. We would do it because that would speed up adaptation to a rapidly changing world, and because we can. He ended with a statement along the lines of: Get Ready.

    A pin drop. It was electric. I haven't read his book, but it sounds like something along the same lines. If anybody has a recording of the 1994 Macworld adress, please let me know! I know it was recorded. It was a top five memorable speech of my life. I'm 58.
  • fts: "Early advances involving the gene-editing tool CRISPR include alerting DNA to create "low-fat" pigs."

    "...alerting DNA"??? How does one alert DNA? Pretty sure that oughta be "altering DNA."
  • "Warns" and "says"? The voice from beyond the grave is bigger news than theoretical science!

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